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2024 California's 45th congressional district election

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For broader coverage of this topic, see California's 45th congressional district.

2024 California's 45th congressional district election
← 2022 November 5, 2024 2026 →
 
Candidate Derek Tran Michelle Steel
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 158,264 157,611
Percentage 50.1% 49.9%
County results
Tran:      50-60%
Steel:      50-60%
U.S. Representative before election

Michelle Steel
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Derek Tran
Democratic

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The 2024 California's 45th congressional district election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the United States representative for California's 45th congressional district, concurrently with elections for the other U.S. House districts in California and the rest of the country, as well as the 2024 U.S. Senate race in California, other elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary election was held on March 5, 2024, concurrently with the Super Tuesday presidential primaries. The election was won by Democratic challenger Derek Tran who narrowly unseated Republican incumbent Michelle Steel by just 0.2%, and the race was one of the closest of the election cycle.[1] Major news outlets only called the race 22 days after Election Night.

Based in Orange County and Los Angeles County, the 45th district contains all of Fountain Valley, Westminster, Garden Grove, Cypress, Buena Park, Cerritos, Artesia, La Palma, Placentia, Hawaiian Gardens, Los Alamitos, and Rossmoor, as well as portions of Brea, Lakewood, Fullerton, and Yorba Linda.[2] One-third of all registered voters in the district are Asian American, with Vietnamese Americans alone comprising 16% of the district's voters.[3]

The incumbent was Republican Michelle Steel, who was re-elected with 52.4% of the vote in 2022. Steel, who is Korean American, was first elected in 2020, unseating incumbent Democrat Harley Rouda. She previously served as a member of the Orange County Board of Supervisors and the California State Board of Equalization.

The race was expected to be highly competitive as it is a purple suburban district. Both House Democrats and House Republicans listed California's 45th district among their highest-priority districts in the 2024 election.[4][5] Joe Biden carried this district by a 6% margin in the 2020 presidential election.[6] Steel was one of 17 House Republicans representing a Biden-won district.[7] At the local level, however, the 45th district has trended Republican, voting for Republicans in every state race in 2022.[8]

Primary election

[edit]

At the end of 2023, Tran announced that he would enter the primary in a bid to become the party's nominee for the U.S. Representative seat in California's 45th congressional district.[9] In March, Tran secured his position as the Democratic nominee, beating another candidate, Kim Nguyen-Penaloza, by 366 votes to face incumbent Republican Steel.[10]

Candidates

[edit]
Kim Nguyen-Penaloza

Advanced to general

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Cheyenne Hunt (D)

Individuals

Organizations

Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D)

U.S. representatives

State senators

State assemblymembers

Municipal officials

Local officials

Individuals

Party chapters

Labor unions

Newspapers and other media

Organizations

Michelle Steel (R)

U.S. representatives

Municipal officials

Local officials

Organizations

Party chapters

Derek Tran (D)

U.S. representatives

Municipal officials

Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of October 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Michelle Steel (R) $8,971,455[a] $5,675,115 $3,752,876
Cheyenne Hunt (D) $389,534[b] $254,544 $134,990
Kim Nguyen-Penaloza (D) $359,909 $357,405 $2,503
Aditya Pai (D) $304,926[c] $276,752 $10,396
Derek Tran (D) $4,380,401 $3,423,836 $956,564
Source: Federal Election Commission[69]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Cheyenne
Hunt (D) 		Kim Nguyen-
Penaloza (D) 		Aditya
Pai (D) 		Michelle
Steel (R) 		Derek
Tran (D) 		Other Undecided
RMG Research[70][A] November 14–19, 2023 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 4% 10% 1% 28% – 9%[e] 47%
Tulchin Research[71][B] November 13–19, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.9% 6% 10% 2% 39% 11% – 32%

Results

[edit]
Results by county and municipality
  Steel
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  No votes / no data
2024 California's 45th congressional district primary[72]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Michelle Steel (incumbent) 78,020 54.9
Democratic Derek Tran 22,544 15.9
Democratic Kim Nguyen-Penaloza 22,178 15.6
Democratic Cheyenne Hunt 11,971 8.4
Democratic Aditya Pai 7,398 5.2
Total votes 142,111 100.0

General election

[edit]

After the March primary, Democrat Tran would face incumbent Michelle Steel, a Republican running for a third term.[73] The district is considered a "battleground district" insofar as it was won by Joe Biden in 2020 but has its seat occupied by a member of the Republican Party.[74] Tran's campaign has emphasized the centrality of his Vietnamese American identity to his bid, as the district encompasses parts of Los Angeles County and Orange County and is considered a majority-minority district, including cities Westminster and Garden Grove, which have predominantly Vietnamese American communities, as well as Artesia and Cerritos where Asian Americans are the largest demographic by race.[75][76] ABC 7 reported that the district was 39% Asian.[77]

Both Steel and Tran vied for support from the district's Vietnamese community, with Steel claiming she understood and worked with the Vietnamese community in the district much better than Tran provoking Tran to respond that the claim was "insulting and disgraceful."[77] The Asian American Action Fund subsequently condemned Steel's comments.[74] In August 2024, the New York Post called out Tran for bringing a translator with him to interviews and events, questioning whether he was actually fluent in Vietnamese.[78] Steel's campaign additionally used Tran's false claims of proficiency as a point of criticism.[79] At the end of August, Tran admitted to the Los Angeles Times that he had lost his childhood fluency and has since spoken "broken Vietnamese."[80] However, Tran's campaign additionally provided a series of video clips in which Tran spoke Vietnamese on television.[81]

The candidates exchanged accusations of communist sympathies. Tran accused Steel's husband, Shawn, of accepting bribes from the Chinese Communist Party in exchange for information, stating that Steel thus could not be trusted with political office in the United States.[82][83] He also drew distinctions between his own family background to that of Steel's, stating that Steel immigrated to the United States for "economic gain" while his family were refugees fleeing communism.[84] Several Asian American leaders and organizations subsequently condemned the comment.[85] Later, on October 22, 2024, the Los Angeles Times reported that Steel's campaign was sending out campaign mailers associating Tran with Mao Zedong and accusing him of supporting socialism. Following Tran's disclosure in August that he held cryptocurrencies, Steel also claimed that his cryptocurrency assets were bound up in China.[82] Steel defended her accusation asserting it was provoked by Tran's earlier messaging.[86] The mutual accusations caused several Asian American nonprofits to pen a letter to both parties stating that such rhetoric should not be used in the race.[77]

In October, Hakeem Jeffries stumped for Tran at a party event in Anaheim, stating that the race would be close.[87] In November, Bill Clinton appeared in Orange County to stump for Tran as well as Dave Min, a state senator in a similarly tight race.[88]

Tran went on to win the general election in one of the tightest battles in the 2024 cycle.

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[89] Tossup September 6, 2024
Inside Elections[90] Tossup October 18, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[91] Lean R November 4, 2024
Elections Daily[92] Lean R November 4, 2024
CNalysis[93] Tilt D (flip) November 4, 2024

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[d] 		Margin
of error 		Michelle
Steel (R) 		Derek
Tran (D) 		Undecided
Normington Petts (D)[94][C] October 13–15, 2024 400 (V) ± 4.4% 45% 48% 7%
American Viewpoint (R)[95][D][better source needed] October 8–10, 2024 400 (V) ± 4.9% 45% 41% 14%
USC/CSU[96] September 14–21, 2024 498 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 48% 5%
Tulchin Research (D)[97][B] September 14–19, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% 8%
Normington Petts (D)[98][C] July 29–31, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 47% 6%
Tulchin Research[99][B] May 23 – June 2, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 41% 17%

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Michelle Steel (R)

Newspapers

Organizations

Derek Tran (D)

Executive Branch Officials

U.S. representatives

Newspapers

Organizations

Results

[edit]
2024 California's 45th congressional district election[113][114]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Derek Tran 158,264 50.10% +2.51
Republican Michelle Steel (incumbent) 157,611 49.90% −2.51
Total votes 315,875 100.0%
Democratic gain from Republican

By county

[edit]
County Derek Tran
Democratic 		Michelle Steel
Republican 		Margin Total
votes
# % # % # %
Los Angeles (part) 19,066 56.23 14,840 43.77 4,226 12.46 33,906
Orange (part) 139,198 49.37 142,771 50.63 -3,573 -1.27 281,969
Total 158,264 50.10 157,611 49.90 653 0.41 157,611

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ $1,910,000 of this total was self-funded by Steel
  2. ^ $107,000 of this total was self-funded by Hunt
  3. ^ $33,833 of this total was self-funded by Pai
  4. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 8%; "Would not vote" with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by U.S. Term Limits
  2. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Tran's campaign
  3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Steel's campaign and the NRCC

References

[edit]
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  2. ^ "Our District". United States House of Representatives Page of Congresswoman Steel. January 3, 2021. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  3. ^ Chan, Melissa (November 9, 2022). "Why a Southern California congressional race hinges on Asian American voters". NPR. The Morning Edition. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
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  5. ^ Steinhauser, Paul (February 3, 2023). "McCarthy launches 'Protect the House 2024' as he aims to expand the GOP majority". Fox News. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
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  98. ^ Normington Petts (D)
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  111. ^ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
  112. ^ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Slate of California Champions for Election to U.S. House". Reproductive Freedom for All. April 9, 2024. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
  113. ^ "California 45th Congressional District Election Results". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 10, 2024.
  114. ^ "2024 California Election Results". AP NEWS. Retrieved November 24, 2024.
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Official campaign websites

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