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2024 United States presidential election in Kansas

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2024 United States presidential election in Kansas

← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote 6 0
Popular vote 758,802 544,853
Percentage 57.16% 41.04%


President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

The 2024 United States presidential election in Kansas took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Kansas voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Kansas has six electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

A sparsely populated Great Plains state that has not voted Democrat for president since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, Kansas was considered by nearly all major news organizations to be safely Republican at the presidential level.

Kansas was won by the Republican nominee, former President Donald Trump, with a margin of 16.1%, a slight improvement from 4 years prior, although one of Trump’s smallest improvements throughout the nation.

Primary elections

[edit]

Republican primary

[edit]

The Kansas Republican Primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida, Illinois, and Ohio.

Kansas Republican primary, March 19, 2024[2][3]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 72,115 75.52% 39 39
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 15,339 16.06%
None of the Names Shown 4,982 5.22%
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 2,543 2.66%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 508 0.53%
Total: 95,487 100.00% 39 39

Democratic primary

[edit]

The Kansas Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Illinois, and Ohio.

Kansas Democratic primary, March 19, 2024[4]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 35,906 83.7% 33 33
None of the Names Shown 4,433 10.3%
Marianne Williamson 1,494 3.5%
Dean Phillips (withdrawn) 566 1.3%
Jason Palmer 516 1.2%
Total: 42,915 100.0% 33 6 39


Green primary

[edit]

The Kansas Green primary was held from January 22, 2024, to February 5, 2024. It was a held digitally under a ranked-choice voting system. Jill Stein won with 100% of the vote, being ranked first by all 7 voting party members. Stein automatically received Kansas's 4 delegates to the 2024 Green National Convention.[5]

Kansas Green primary, January 22, 2024 – February 5, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegate count
Jill Stein 7 100% 4
Total: 7 100% 4
Source:[5]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[6] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[7] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[9] Safe R May 31, 2024
CNalysis[10] Very Likely R November 4, 2024
CNN[11] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[12] Safe R June 12, 2024
538[13] Solid R October 3, 2024
NBC News[14] Safe R October 6, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Kamala
Harris
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Fort Hays State University[15] September 26 – October 16, 2024 656 (A) 46% 37% 17%[b]
608 (A) 50% 39% 11%[c]
517 (RV) 48% 43% 9%[d]
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[16][A] April 13–21, 2024 385 (LV) 48% 42% 10%
Emerson College[17] October 1–4, 2023 487 (RV) ± 4.4% 47% 31% 22%
Emerson College[18] October 27–29, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 37% 13%
Emerson College[19] September 15–18, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 36% 12%
Echelon Insights[20][B] August 31 – September 7, 2022 392 (LV) ± 7.5% 52% 41% 7%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump
Republican
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[16][A] April 13–21, 2024 385 (LV) 44% 42% 14%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[16][A] April 13–21, 2024 385 (LV) 53% 36% 11%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis
Republican
Joe
Biden
Democratic
Other /
Undecided
Echelon Insights[20][B] August 31 – September 7, 2022 392 (LV) ± 7.5% 50% 39% 11%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Kansas[21]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican 758,802 57.16% +1.02%
Democratic 544,853 41.04% −0.47%
Independent
16,322 1.23% N/A
Libertarian 7,614 0.57% −1.66%
Total votes 1,327,591 100.00% N/A

By county

[edit]
County[22] Donald Trump
Republican
Kamala Harris
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Allen 4,029 71.69% 1,445 25.71% 146 2.60% 2,584 45.98% 5,620
Anderson 2,998 78.85% 732 19.25% 72 1.90% 2,266 59.60% 3,802
Atchison 4,911 67.42% 2,201 30.22% 172 2.36% 2,710 37.20% 7,284
Barber 1,854 85.44% 288 13.27% 28 1.29% 1,566 71.17% 2,170
Barton 8,205 77.28% 2,207 20.79% 205 1.93% 5,998 56.49% 10,617
Bourbon 5,003 75.90% 1,444 21.91% 145 2.19% 3,559 53.99% 6,592
Brown 3,106 72.67% 1,065 24.92% 103 2.41% 2,041 47.75% 4,274
Butler 22,426 69.57% 9,150 28.38% 660 2.05% 13,276 41.19% 32,236
Chase 1,090 74.56% 348 23.80% 24 1.64% 742 50.76% 1,462
Chautauqua 1,299 85.01% 211 13.81% 18 1.18% 1,088 71.20% 1,528
Cherokee 6,584 75.33% 1,970 22.54% 186 2.13% 4,614 52.79% 8,740
Cheyenne 1,185 83.33% 206 14.49% 31 2.18% 979 68.84% 1,422
Clark 867 85.50% 129 12.72% 18 1.78% 738 72.78% 1,014
Clay 3,150 76.59% 867 21.08% 96 2.33% 2,283 55.51% 4,113
Cloud 3,218 79.24% 767 18.89% 76 1.87% 2,451 60.35% 4,061
Coffey 3,371 76.68% 934 21.25% 91 2.07% 2,437 55.43% 4,396
Comanche 727 83.18% 130 14.87% 17 1.95% 597 68.31% 874
Cowley 9,360 69.06% 3,919 28.91% 275 2.03% 5,441 40.15% 13,554
Crawford 10,084 61.42% 5,956 36.28% 377 2.30% 4,128 25.14% 16,417
Decatur 1,217 83.70% 215 14.79% 22 1.51% 1,002 68.91% 1,454
Dickinson 7,014 76.71% 1,989 21.75% 141 1.54% 5,025 54.96% 9,144
Doniphan 2,899 80.71% 626 17.43% 67 1.86% 2,273 63.28% 3,592
Douglas 17,523 29.85% 39,582 67.42% 1,602 2.73% -22,059 -37.57% 58,707
Edwards 1,042 82.11% 213 16.78% 14 1.11% 829 65.33% 1,269
Elk 1,123 83.93% 191 14.28% 24 1.79% 932 69.65% 1,338
Ellis 9,743 71.81% 3,511 25.88% 314 2.31% 6,232 45.93% 13,568
Ellsworth 2,078 75.34% 636 23.06% 44 1.60% 1,442 52.28% 2,758
Finney 7,166 66.25% 3,425 31.67% 225 2.08% 3,741 34.58% 10,816
Ford 5,616 68.10% 2,461 29.84% 170 2.06% 3,155 38.26% 8,247
Franklin 8,773 68.76% 3,676 28.81% 310 2.43% 5,097 39.95% 12,759
Geary 5,288 57.56% 3,674 39.99% 225 2.45% 1,614 17.57% 9,187
Gove 1,227 87.77% 150 10.73% 21 1.50% 1,077 77.04% 1,398
Graham 1,055 81.97% 210 16.32% 22 1.71% 845 65.65% 1,287
Grant 1,793 80.77% 395 17.79% 32 1.44% 1,398 62.98% 2,220
Gray 1,837 83.77% 324 14.77% 32 1.46% 1,513 69.00% 2,193
Greeley 510 86.00% 75 12.65% 8 1.35% 435 73.35% 593
Greenwood 2,299 79.50% 541 18.71% 52 1.79% 1,758 60.79% 2,892
Hamilton 671 82.33% 131 16.07% 13 1.60% 540 66.26% 815
Harper 2,072 80.78% 437 17.04% 56 2.18% 1,635 63.74% 2,565
Harvey 9,591 59.32% 6,202 38.36% 376 2.32% 3,389 20.96% 16,169
Haskell 1,045 81.70% 221 17.28% 13 1.02% 824 64.42% 1,279
Hodgeman 817 84.58% 136 14.08% 13 1.34% 681 70.50% 966
Jackson 4,557 70.12% 1,799 27.68% 143 2.20% 2,758 42.44% 6,499
Jefferson 6,694 67.11% 3,030 30.38% 251 2.51% 3,664 36.73% 9,975
Jewell 1,370 86.87% 176 11.16% 31 1.97% 1,194 75.71% 1,577
Johnson 154,247 44.47% 183,451 52.89% 9,162 2.64% -29,204 -8.42% 346,860
Kearny 1,082 83.17% 192 14.76% 27 2.07% 890 68.41% 1,301
Kingman 3,119 79.02% 753 19.08% 75 1.90% 2,366 59.94% 3,947
Kiowa 941 84.85% 151 13.62% 17 1.53% 790 71.23% 1,109
Labette 5,410 68.30% 2,385 30.11% 126 1.59% 3,025 38.19% 7,921
Lane 709 83.91% 111 13.14% 25 2.95% 598 70.77% 845
Leavenworth 22,055 60.00% 13,732 37.36% 969 2.64% 8,323 22.64% 36,756
Lincoln 1,233 81.82% 250 16.59% 24 1.59% 983 65.23% 1,507
Linn 4,093 81.39% 854 16.98% 82 1.63% 3,239 64.41% 5,029
Logan 1,186 84.71% 183 13.07% 31 2.22% 1,003 71.64% 1,400
Lyon 7,462 56.05% 5,515 41.42% 337 2.53% 1,947 14.63% 13,314
Marion 4,312 73.35% 1,429 24.31% 138 2.34% 2,883 49.04% 5,879
Marshall 3,644 73.35% 1,205 24.26% 119 2.39% 2,439 49.09% 4,968
McPherson 9,816 69.29% 4,021 28.38% 330 2.33% 5,795 40.91% 14,167
Meade 1,427 84.19% 247 14.57% 21 1.24% 1,180 69.62% 1,695
Miami 12,854 68.55% 5,472 29.18% 424 2.27% 7,382 39.37% 18,750
Mitchell 2,608 82.22% 528 16.65% 36 1.13% 2,080 65.57% 3,172
Montgomery 9,287 74.65% 2,934 23.58% 220 1.77% 6,353 51.07% 12,441
Morris 2,021 72.39% 721 25.82% 50 1.79% 1,300 46.57% 2,792
Morton 909 85.75% 131 12.36% 20 1.89% 778 73.39% 1,060
Nemaha 4,655 82.58% 888 15.75% 94 1.67% 3,767 66.83% 5,637
Neosho 4,961 72.86% 1,696 24.91% 152 2.23% 3,265 47.95% 6,809
Ness 1,205 88.41% 129 9.46% 29 2.13% 1,076 78.95% 1,363
Norton 1,882 82.73% 346 15.21% 47 2.06% 1,536 67.52% 2,275
Osage 5,736 72.44% 1,946 24.58% 236 2.98% 3,790 47.86% 7,918
Osborne 1,477 83.21% 261 14.70% 37 2.09% 1,216 68.51% 1,775
Ottawa 2,475 82.42% 476 15.85% 52 1.73% 1,999 66.57% 3,003
Pawnee 2,003 74.88% 625 23.36% 47 1.76% 1,378 51.52% 2,675
Phillips 2,356 85.67% 331 12.04% 63 2.29% 2,025 73.63% 2,750
Pottawatomie 9,811 72.83% 3,394 25.19% 267 1.98% 6,417 47.64% 13,472
Pratt 3,054 74.82% 954 23.37% 74 1.81% 2,100 51.45% 4,082
Rawlins 1,194 84.68% 176 12.48% 40 2.84% 1,018 72.20% 1,410
Reno 17,847 65.94% 8,554 31.60% 666 2.46% 9,293 34.34% 27,067
Republic 2,001 81.51% 396 16.13% 58 2.36% 1,605 65.38% 2,455
Rice 3,073 77.39% 825 20.78% 73 1.83% 2,248 56.61% 3,971
Riley 11,630 47.44% 12,063 49.21% 820 3.35% -433 -1.77% 24,513
Rooks 2,153 84.86% 349 13.76% 35 1.38% 1,804 71.10% 2,537
Rush 1,315 81.88% 264 16.44% 27 1.68% 1,051 65.44% 1,606
Russell 2,632 79.40% 608 18.34% 75 2.26% 2,024 61.06% 3,315
Saline 15,069 64.61% 7,734 33.16% 521 2.23% 7,335 31.45% 23,324
Scott 1,843 86.32% 248 11.62% 44 2.06% 1,595 74.70% 2,135
Sedgwick 120,118 55.73% 90,506 41.99% 4,926 2.28% 29,612 13.74% 215,550
Seward 3,133 68.51% 1,354 29.61% 86 1.88% 1,779 38.90% 4,573
Shawnee 39,901 48.45% 40,308 48.95% 2,141 2.60% -407 -0.50% 82,350
Sheridan 1,229 89.51% 126 9.18% 18 1.31% 1,103 80.33% 1,373
Sherman 2,161 83.15% 379 14.58% 59 2.27% 1,782 68.57% 2,599
Smith 1,675 83.25% 300 14.91% 37 1.84% 1,375 68.34% 2,012
Stafford 1,548 81.00% 326 17.06% 37 1.94% 1,222 63.94% 1,911
Stanton 537 80.87% 115 17.32% 12 1.81% 422 63.55% 664
Stevens 1,595 86.92% 210 11.44% 30 1.64% 1,385 75.48% 1,835
Sumner 7,810 73.81% 2,527 23.88% 244 2.31% 5,283 49.93% 10,581
Thomas 3,007 81.85% 597 16.25% 70 1.90% 2,410 65.60% 3,674
Trego 1,343 84.41% 216 13.58% 32 2.01% 1,127 70.83% 1,591
Wabaunsee 2,816 72.95% 944 24.46% 100 2.59% 1,872 48.49% 3,860
Wallace 686 91.71% 52 6.95% 10 1.34% 634 84.76% 748
Washington 2,263 83.81% 396 14.67% 41 1.52% 1,867 69.14% 2,700
Wichita 740 86.05% 107 12.44% 13 1.51% 633 73.61% 860
Wilson 2,894 80.19% 647 17.93% 68 1.88% 2,247 62.26% 3,609
Woodson 1,205 80.01% 282 18.73% 19 1.26% 923 61.28% 1,506
Wyandotte 18,867 37.07% 30,938 60.78% 1,096 2.15% -12,071 -23.71% 50,901
Totals 758,802 56.83% 544,853 40.80% 31,671 2.37% 213,949 16.03% 1,335,326
Swing by county:
  Democratic — +2.5–5%
  Democratic — +0–2.5%
  Republican — +0–2.5%
  Republican — +2.5–5%
  Republican — +5–7.5%
  Republican — +7.5–10%
  Republican — +10–12.5%

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won 3 of 4 congressional districts.[23][user-generated source]

District Trump Harris Representative
1st 64.72% 33.45% Tracey Mann
2nd 58.89% 39.21% Jake LaTurner (118th Congress)
Derek Schmidt (119th Congress)
3rd 47.06% 51.16% Sharice Davids
4th 60.79% 37.50% Ron Estes

Analysis

[edit]

In recent years, Democrats have seen some success in the state, such as defeating the 2022 Kansas abortion referendum and holding the governorship since 2019. This leftward shift has been attributed to the growth of the Kansas City metropolitan area, more specifically Johnson County, the state's most populous, which supported Joe Biden four years prior, the first win for a Democrat in this county since 1916.[24] While Democrats had hoped that their margin of defeat would narrow further after favorable polls and Biden's favorable results compared to 2016, Kansas instead shifted to the right, with Trump improving on his margin[25] and Republicans in the state legislature expanding their supermajorities.[26]

Trump improved on his 14.6% margin from 2020, albeit by only 1.5%. As such, Trump is the first Republican to win the White House without Johnson County since William McKinley in 1896, and the first since Kansas achieved statehood to win without Riley County, home to Fort Riley and Kansas State University, and Shawnee County, home to the state capital of Topeka.

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "I do not plan on voting/cannot vote" & "Neither of the top two candidates" with 7% each
  3. ^ "Neither of the top two candidates" with 7%
  4. ^ "Neither of the top two candidates" with 6%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NetChoice

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ "Kansas Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved March 18, 2024.
  3. ^ "Kansas Republican Presidential Nominating Process" (PDF). sos.ks.gov. March 19, 2024. Retrieved April 24, 2024.
  4. ^ "Kansas Presidential Primary". The AP. May 2, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
  5. ^ a b @KSGreenParty (February 8, 2024). "The Kansas Green Party has concluded its presidential primary. Seven Kansas Green Party members cast their ranked-choice ballot and all ranked @DrJillStein first. Jill Stein will receive all four of our delegates at the Presidential Nominating Convention. #GreenParty" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  6. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  7. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  8. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved May 31, 2024.
  10. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  12. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  13. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 4, 2024.
  14. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News. December 17, 2024.
  15. ^ "Kansas Speaks - Fall 2024 Statewide Public Opinion Survey" (PDF). Fort Hays State University. October 28, 2024.
  16. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  17. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 12, 2023). "Kansas 2024 Poll: Trump Holds 16-point Lead Over Biden in Potential 2024 Rematch". Emerson Polling.
  18. ^ Mumford, Camille (November 2, 2022). "Kansas 2022: Governor Laura Kelly Holds Three-Point Lead Over AG Derek Schmidt in Gubernatorial Election; Senator Moran leads by 21 points for Re-election". Emerson Polling.
  19. ^ Mumford, Camille (September 21, 2022). "Kansas 2022: Democratic Governor Laura Kelly in Tight Race with A.G. Derek Schmidt in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson Polling.
  20. ^ a b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
  21. ^ "Official General Election Results" (PDF). Kansas Secretary of State. Retrieved December 30, 2024.
  22. ^ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections".
  23. ^ "2024 Pres by CD".
  24. ^ "How Johnson County, Kansas, became a crucial battleground in the 2024 election". The Kansas City Star. August 4, 2024. Retrieved October 31, 2024.
  25. ^ Smith, Sherman (November 6, 2024). "Kansas backs Trump for president after surprising survey attracts interest in state's votes • Kansas Reflector". Kansas Reflector. Retrieved January 21, 2025.
  26. ^ McCoy, Tim Carpenter, Sherman Smith, Allison Kite, Max (November 6, 2024). "Election night results show Republicans preserving supermajorities in Kansas House, Senate • Kansas Reflector". Kansas Reflector. Retrieved January 21, 2025.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)