Jump to content

2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana

Edit links
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

For related races, see 2024 United States House of Representatives elections.
Not to be confused with 2024 Montana House of Representatives election.

2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana
← 2022 November 5, 2024 2026 →
Both Montana seats to the United States House of Representatives
  Majority party Minority party
 
Party Republican Democratic
Last election 2 0
Seats won 2 0
Seat change Steady Steady
Popular vote 350,361 237,496
Percentage 58.61% 39.73%
Swing Increase 5.75% Increase 5.49%
Elections in Montana
Federal government
Presidential elections
Presidential primaries
Democratic
2000
2004
2008
2016
2020
2024
Republican
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
U.S. Senate elections
U.S. House of Representatives elections
State government
General elections
Gubernatorial elections
Secretary of State elections
Attorney General elections
State Auditor elections
Senate elections
House of Representatives elections
Ballot measures
1894
Capital referendum
2004
Initiative 96
2012
Referendum 121
2016
Initiative 182
2020
Initiative 190
2022
Referendum 131
2024
Initiative 128
Billings
Mayoral elections
Missoula
Mayoral elections
Great Falls
Mayoral elections
Bozeman
Mayoral elections
Helena
Mayoral elections

The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the state of Montana, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections coincided with the U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections took place on June 4, 2024.

District 1

[edit]
2024 Montana's 1st congressional district election
← 2022
2026 →
 
Nominee Ryan Zinke Monica Tranel
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 168,529 143,783
Percentage 52.3% 44.6%
Zinke:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tranel:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
     No Votes
U.S. Representative before election

Ryan Zinke
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Ryan Zinke
Republican

See also: Montana's 1st congressional district

The 1st district is based in mountainous Western Montana, including the cities of Missoula, Kalispell, Bozeman and Butte. The incumbent is Republican Ryan Zinke, who was elected with 49.7% of the vote in 2022.[1] He initially had expressed interest in running for U.S. Senate against incumbent Jon Tester, but chose not to do so.[2]

Republican primary

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Mary Todd, innkeeper and candidate for this district in 2022[4]

Endorsements

[edit]
Ryan Zinke

Executive Branch officials

Organizations

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Mary Todd (R) $87,253[a] $67,177 $20,075
Ryan Zinke (R) $5,752,008 $3,341,562 $2,520,494
Source: Federal Election Commission[9]

Results

[edit]
2024 Republican Primary for U.S. Representative of Montana's 1st Congressional District[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ryan Zinke (incumbent) 66,409 73.74
Republican Mary Todd 23,647 26.26
Total votes 90,056 100.0

Democratic primary

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Monica Tranel

U.S. representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Organizations

Labor unions

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Monica Tranel (D) $2,340,724 $826,277 $1,524,332
Source: Federal Election Commission[9]

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Monica Tranel 59,806 100.0
Total votes 59,806 100.0

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • Dennis Hayes, remodeling contractor[4]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Ernie Noble, construction worker[4]

Results

[edit]
Libertarian primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Dennis Hayes 390 65.4
Libertarian Ernie Noble 206 34.6
Total votes 596 100.0

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[26] Lean R October 4, 2024
Inside Elections[27] Lean R September 15, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] Lean R February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[29] Lean R September 7, 2023
CNalysis[30] Lean R November 16, 2023

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Ryan
Zinke (R) 		Monica
Tranel (D) 		Dennis
Hayes (L) 		Undecided
Impact Research (D)[31][A] October 14–17, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 45% 4% 5%
Guidance Polling and Strategy[32][B] October 13–16, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 52% 44% – 4%
Montana State University[33] September 30 – October 16, 2024 (A) – 44% 37% 4% 15%
Noble Predictive Insights[34][C] September 11–14, 2024 432 (LV) ± 4.7% 49% 44% – 7%
47% 43% 3% 7%
DCCC (D)[35] September 11–13, 2024 864 (LV) ± 3.3% 46% 45% – 9%[c]
Impact Research (D)[36][A] August 26–29, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 44% 4% 5%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
David Binder Research (D)[37][D] 		August 25–29, 2024 310 (LV) – 49% 43% – 8%
Impact Research (D)[36][A] May 2024 – – 46% 42% 6% 6%
Impact Research (D)[36][A] February 2024 – – 52% 43% 0% 5%

Results

[edit]
Montana's 1st congressional district, 2024[38]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Ryan Zinke (incumbent) 168,529 52.3%
Democratic Monica Tranel 143,783 44.6%
Libertarian Dennis Hayes 9,954 3.1%
Total votes 322,266 100.0%

District 2

[edit]
2024 Montana's 2nd congressional district election
← 2022
2026 →
 
Nominee Troy Downing John Driscoll
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 181,832 93,713
Percentage 66.0% 34.0%
Downing:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Driscoll:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
U.S. Representative before election

Matt Rosendale
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Troy Downing
Republican

See also: Montana's 2nd congressional district

The 2nd district encompasses much of the state east of the Continental Divide, including the cities of Billings, Great Falls and Helena. The incumbent is Republican Matt Rosendale, who was re-elected with 56.6% of the vote in 2022.[1] He announced in February 2024 that he would run for U.S. Senate against incumbent Jon Tester, but dropped out of the race one week later.[39] On March 8, 2024, Rosendale announced that he would not be seeking any office in 2024.[40]

Republican primary

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Elsie Arntzen

U.S. representatives

Organizations

Ken Bogner

Executive Branch officials

Troy Downing

Executive branch officials

U.S. representatives

Organizations

Joel Krautter

Labor unions

Declined to endorse

U.S. representatives

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Elsie Arntzen (R) $871,444[d] $805,097 $66,347
Kenneth Bogner (R) $54,359 $43,425 $10,933
Troy Downing (R) $1,818,816[e] $1,383,494 $435,322
Ric Holden (R) $49,248[f] $46,540 $2,708
Joel Krautter (R) $76,533[g] $67,136 $9,397
Denny Rehberg (R) $601,991[h] $453,928 $148,063
Stacy Zinn (R) $41,460 $3,091 $38,369
Source: Federal Election Commission[52]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Elsie
Arntzen 		Kenneth
Bogner 		Troy
Downing 		Ric
Holden 		Denny
Rehberg 		Stacy
Zinn 		Other Undecided
Cygnal (R)[53][E] May 8–9, 2024 410 (LV) ± 4.8% 5% 4% 28% 2% 12% 8% 3%[i] 40%
Guidant Polling & Strategy[54][F] April 14–17, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 10% – 38% – 26% – – 27%
Cygnal (R)[55][E] April 15–16, 2024 415 (LV) ± 4.8% 7% 4% 21% 1% 11% 3% 3%[j] 51%
Moore Information[56][G] February 1, 2024 500 (LV) – 5% 3% 16% 2% 26% 2% 9%[k] 37%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Downing
  •   20-30%
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
  Rehberg
  •   20-30%
  Bogner
  •   20-30%
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
  Holden
  •   20-30%
  •   30-40%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Troy Downing 36,269 36.1
Republican Denny Rehberg 17,182 17.1
Republican Stacy Zinn 13,581 13.5
Republican Elsie Arntzen 9,468 9.4
Republican Kenneth Bogner 9,026 9.0
Republican Ric Holden 7,108 7.1
Republican Joel Krautter 3,432 3.4
Republican Kyle Austin 3,177 3.2
Republican Ed Walker (withdrawn) 1,168 1.2
Total votes 100,411 100.0

Democratic primary

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Ming Cabrera, salesman[57]
  • Kevin Hamm, IT consultant[58]
  • Steve Held, actor and rancher[4]

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Ming Cabrera (D) $60,007[l] $41,424 $18,582
Kevin Hamm (D) $62,689 $57,628 $5,061
Steve Held (D) $86,570[m] $67,945 $18,624
Source: Federal Election Commission[52]

Results

[edit]
  Driscoll
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
  •   60-70%
  Held
  •   30-40%
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
  Cabrera
  •   30-40%
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Driscoll 13,420 33.3
Democratic Steve Held 10,649 26.4
Democratic Ming Cabrera 8,408 20.9
Democratic Kevin Hamm 7,813 19.4
Total votes 40,290 100.0

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[26] Solid R February 2, 2023
Inside Elections[27] Solid R September 15, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] Safe R February 23, 2023
Elections Daily[29] Safe R September 7, 2023
CNalysis[30] Solid R November 16, 2023

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Troy
Downing (R) 		John
Driscoll (D) 		Other /
Undecided
Montana State University[33] September 30 – October 16, 2024 (A) – 43% 26% 31%[n]
Fabrizio Ward (R)/
David Binder Research (D)[37][H] 		August 25–29, 2024 290 (LV) – 52% 31% 17%

Results

[edit]
Montana's 2nd congressional district, 2024[38]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Troy Downing 181,832 66.0%
Democratic John Driscoll 93,713 34.0%
Total votes 275,545 100.0%

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ $76,300 of this total was self-funded by Todd
  2. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ "Undecided" with 4%
  4. ^ $750,000 of this total was self-funded by Arntzen
  5. ^ $1,050,000 of this total was self-funded by Downing
  6. ^ $32,072 of this total was self-funded by Holden
  7. ^ $6,240 of this total was self-funded by Krautter
  8. ^ $450,000 of this total was self-funded by Rehberg
  9. ^ Joel Krautter with 2%; Kyle Austin with 1%; Ed Walker with 0%
  10. ^ Joel Krautter with 2%; Kyle Austin with 1; Ed Walker with 0%
  11. ^ Joel Krautter and Ed Walker with 1%; "Other" with 7%
  12. ^ $2,740 of this total was self-funded by Cabrera
  13. ^ $45,000 of this total was self-funded by Held
  14. ^ Metzger (I) with 4%; Neill (D) with 3%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Tranel's campaign
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by the Congressional Leadership Fund
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by Inside Elections
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by AARP
  5. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Elect Principled Veterans Fund, which supports Downing's campaign
  6. ^ Poll sponsored by Downing's campaign
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by supporters of Rehberg's campaign
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by AARP.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ a b "2022 National House Vote Tracker". Cook Political Report. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
  2. ^ Warren, Bradley (July 5, 2023). "Congressman Ryan Zinke officially endorses Tim Sheehy for US Senate". Nonstop Local—ABC FOX. There was speculation Zinke could enter the race, but that speculation now shut down with this endorsement.
  3. ^ a b Corrin, Noah; Warren, Bradley (July 10, 2023). "Montana Democrat Monica Tranel announces run for U.S. Congress". KTMF. Retrieved July 10, 2023. Zinke plans to run for reelection, setting up a potential rematch of the 2022 race.
  4. ^ a b c d e f "Federal Primary 2024". Montana Secretary of State. January 11, 2024.
  5. ^ Buffington, Posie (March 22, 2024). "Former Pres. Trump endorses Zinke for re-election in Montana's District 1 congressional race". NonStop Local. Retrieved March 22, 2024.
  6. ^ "2024 Endorsed Candidates". boltonpac.com. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
  7. ^ "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  8. ^ NRA-PVF. "NRA-PVF | Grades | Montana". NRA-PVF. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  9. ^ a b "2024 Election United States House - Montana 1st". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved February 2, 2024.
  10. ^ "Montana 2024 Elections: Montana Primary Results". Montana Free Press. July 3, 2024. Retrieved October 30, 2024.
  11. ^ "Elect Democratic Women Endorses Monica Tranel in Montana's 1st Congressional District". Elect Democratic Women. August 3, 2023. Retrieved August 24, 2023.
  12. ^ a b c "NewDem Action Fund Announces New Red-to-Blue Candidate Endorsement Slate". NewDem Action Fund. October 26, 2023. Archived from the original on October 26, 2023. Retrieved October 26, 2023.
  13. ^ a b Sagner, Denali (July 13, 2023). "Tranel Hones in on Montana's 'Purple DNA' at Kalispell Launch Event". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved August 15, 2023.
  14. ^ "Fight Like Hell PAC". Fight Like Hell PAC. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
  15. ^ Montanan, Daily (July 11, 2023). "Tranel announces another bid for Congress". The Missoula Current News - Daily News in Missoula Montana. Retrieved August 15, 2023.
  16. ^ "Democrats launch their first slate of challengers in the fight for the House majority". NBC News. January 29, 2024. Retrieved January 29, 2024.
  17. ^ Schneider, Elena (February 8, 2024). "Pro-Israel group wades into several contested Democratic primaries". Politico. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
  18. ^ Chou, Lauren (September 27, 2023). "EMILYs List Endorses Monica Tranel for Montana's 1st Congressional District". EMILYs List. Archived from the original on September 27, 2023. Retrieved September 27, 2023.
  19. ^ "Jewish Dems Endorse in Key House and Senate Races, Pledge Resources to Mobilize Jewish Voters". Jewish Democratic Council of America. March 28, 2023.
  20. ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces Slate of New U.S. House Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Archived from the original on September 28, 2023. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
  21. ^ NCPSSM. "National Seniors' Group Proudly Endorses Tester, Tranel in Montana". NCPSSM. Retrieved June 24, 2024.
  22. ^ "2024 Federal Endorsements". NOW PAC. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
  23. ^ "New Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsements: We Can Flip The House By Electing These Reproductive Rights Champions in 2024". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
  24. ^ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Slate of Champions for the U.S. House". Reproductive Freedom for All. October 24, 2023. Archived from the original on October 24, 2023. Retrieved October 24, 2023.
  25. ^ a b "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  26. ^ a b "2024 House Race Ratings: Another Competitive Fight for Control". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 3, 2023.
  27. ^ a b "First 2024 House Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved March 10, 2023.
  28. ^ a b "Initial House Ratings: Battle for Majority Starts as a Toss-up". Sabato's Crystal Ball. February 23, 2023.
  29. ^ a b "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. September 13, 2023. Retrieved September 17, 2023.
  30. ^ a b "2024 House Forecast". November 20, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
  31. ^ Impact Research (D)
  32. ^ Guidance Polling and Strategy
  33. ^ a b Montana State University
  34. ^ Noble Predictive Insights
  35. ^ DCCC (D)
  36. ^ a b c Impact Research (D)
  37. ^ a b Fabrizio Ward (R)/
    David Binder Research (D)
  38. ^ a b "2024 Statewide General Election Canvass". Secretary of State of Montana. December 11, 2024. Retrieved December 11, 2024.
  39. ^ Mutnick, Ally; Beavers, Olivia; Everett, Burgess (February 15, 2024). "Rosendale drops Montana Senate bid". Politico.
  40. ^ a b Schnell, Mychael (March 8, 2024). "Rosendale drops reelection bid, will retire at end of term". The Hill. Retrieved March 8, 2024.
  41. ^ "Troy Downing announces campaign for Congress". KTVQ. November 1, 2023. Retrieved November 1, 2023.
  42. ^ West, Bowen (February 12, 2024). "Arntzen announces run for Congress". NBC News. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
  43. ^ Warren, Bradley; Corrin, Noah (January 9, 2024). "Montana State Senator Ken Bogner announces run for U.S. Congress". KULR-TV. Retrieved January 9, 2024.
  44. ^ a b Murray, David (September 25, 2023). "Holden joins growing field in run to represent eastern House District". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved September 25, 2023.
  45. ^ Lutey, Tom (February 21, 2024). "Denny Rehberg launches U.S. House campaign". Billings Gazette. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
  46. ^ Buffington, Posie (November 6, 2023). "Stacy Zinn announces run for Montana congressional district two". KULR8. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
  47. ^ a b c d e f Ambarian, Jonathon (April 11, 2024). "Endorsements come in for Montana eastern district primary, some big players still on the sideline". KTVH-DT. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
  48. ^ Roth, Samantha-Jo (April 3, 2024). "Freedom Caucus chairman endorses Republican in crowded primary for Rosendale House seat - Washington Examiner". The Washington Examiner. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
  49. ^ "Big Win and Nine New Endorsements". House Freedom Fund. May 8, 2024. Retrieved May 8, 2024.
  50. ^ Gorman, Reese (April 12, 2024). "Trump endorses Downing for U.S. House race". NBC Montana. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
  51. ^ "Endorsements". With Honor Fund II. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
  52. ^ a b "2024 Election United States House - Montana 2nd". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved February 2, 2024.
  53. ^ Cygnal (R)
  54. ^ Guidant Polling & Strategy
  55. ^ Cygnal (R)
  56. ^ Moore Information
  57. ^ Ragar, Shaylee (September 6, 2023). "Another Democrat joins Montana's eastern district U.S. House race". Montana Public Radio. Retrieved September 6, 2023.
  58. ^ Ehrlick, Darrell (May 16, 2023). "Hamm announces bid for Congress". Daily Montanan.
[edit]

Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates

Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates

Retrieved from "https://wiki.riteme.site/w/index.php?title=2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Montana&oldid=1262521915"