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2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina

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Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout73.73%[1] Decrease 1.62 pp
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Projected electoral vote 16 0
Popular vote 2,898,423 2,715,375
Percentage 50.86% 47.65%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in North Carolina
Federal government
U.S. President
U.S. Senate
U.S. House of Representatives
State executive
Gubernatorial elections
Lieutenant Governor elections
Attorney General elections
Council of State elections
Secretary of State elections
State legislature
State Senate elections
State House elections
State judiciary
Judicial elections
Ballot measures
2012
Amendment 1
Mayoral elections
Charlotte mayoral elections
Cary mayoral elections
Durham mayoral elections
Fayetteville mayoral elections
Greensboro mayoral elections
Raleigh mayoral elections
Winston-Salem mayoral elections

The 2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. North Carolina voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of North Carolina has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state gained a seat.[2]

While Republican presidential candidates won close victories in 2012, 2016, and 2020, even as polls indicated a narrow win by Democrat Joe Biden in 2020, at the state level, Democrat Roy Cooper won the 2016 and 2020 gubernatorial elections. Because of these results, the presidential election was expected to be competitive. Today a purple to slightly red state, North Carolina was targeted by both parties in 2024, with major news organizations marking the state as a tossup or slightly leaning towards the Republican candidate Donald Trump, who would go on to carry the state by a similar margin to his 2016 result.[3] Incumbent president Biden was initially poised to run for re-election, but withdrew on July 21 and endorsed his vice president Kamala Harris.

Despite an otherwise rough year for North Carolina Republicans down ballot, especially due to controversial Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson, Trump won the state by 3.2%. Trump's win kept it in the Republican column for the fourth election cycle in a row and Trump won the state himself for the third straight election. It was also the first presidential election in North Carolina since 2012 and only the second since 2004 where the winning candidate secured an outright majority of the state's vote.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 North Carolina Democratic presidential primary

In North Carolina, candidates can make the primary ballot either by being nominated by the state party or by filing a nominating petition with at least 10,000 signatures.[4] The North Carolina Democratic Party submitted only Joe Biden as a candidate,[5] and no candidate submitted 10,000 signatures by the December 22, 2023 deadline.[6]

The cancellation was criticized by the Dean Phillips campaign, who started an online petition to get his candidacy on the ballot and threatened legal challenges.[5][7] Marianne Williamson and Cenk Uygur also criticized the moves.[5]

In addition to the candidates on the ballot, the "No Preference" option appeared on the Democratic, Republican, and Libertarian Presidential Preference Primary ballots. In 2012, when President Barack Obama did not face primary opposition in North Carolina, approximately twenty percent of voters opted for the "No Preference" option.[8]

The North Carolina Democratic presidential primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

North Carolina Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[9]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 609,680 87.27% 113
No Preference 88,900 12.73%
Total: 698,580 100.00% 132 132

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 North Carolina Republican presidential primary

The North Carolina Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

North Carolina Republican primary, March 5, 2024[10]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 793,978 73.84% 62 62
Nikki Haley 250,838 23.33% 12 12
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 14,740 1.37%
No Preference 7,448 0.69%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 3,418 0.32%
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 3,166 0.29%
Ryan Binkley (withdrawn) 916 0.09%
Asa Hutchinson (withdrawn) 727 0.07%
Total: 1,075,231 100.00% 74 74


Libertarian primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 North Carolina Libertarian presidential primary

The North Carolina Libertarian primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024. Ten candidates were presented on the ballot.[11]

North Carolina Libertarian primary, March 5, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage
None of the Above 2,058 40.5%
Chase Oliver 676 13.3%
Jacob Hornberger 357 7.0%
Joshua Smith 354 7.0%
Michael Rectenwald 195 3.8%
Charles Ballay 183 3.6%
Lars Mapstead 176 3.5%
Mike ter Maat 137 2.7%
Other[a] 946 18.7%
Total: 5,082 100.0%
Source:[12]

General election

[edit]

Events and rule changes

[edit]

Voters must now show a voter ID at the polls and provide a copy of their ID with their mail-in ballots. Mail-in ballots received after election day also will not be counted.[13] There will also be more partisan poll-watchers.[14] The laws are similar to others passed in Republican-controlled states which Democrats have criticized as voter suppression.[13][14] Common Cause North Carolina and the League of Women Voters of North Carolina have been educating voters on the new rules.[13]

On September 12, 2024, the Republican National Committee sued to block the use of digital IDs, popular with students at the University of North Carolina, as a form of voter ID.[15] The plaintiffs sought a temporary restraining order, and alleged that the digital IDs did not comply with the state's voter identification requirements and were susceptible to fraud.[15] On September 20, 2024, Wake County Superior Court Judge Keith Gregory rejected the request for a temporary restraining order, stating that the Republican National Committee had not "advanced any credible link between the State Board's approval of Mobile One Cards and a heightened risk of ineligible voters casting illegal votes."[15]

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was granted the status of presidential candidate in July 2024 for North Carolina after state authorities recognised the political party he founded, 'We the People', which allowed Kennedy to qualify using 13,757 signatures, instead of the 82,542 signatures required for a candidate with no party.[16][17] The North Carolina Democratic Party filed a lawsuit alleging that Kennedy was improperly using his party to avoid higher qualification requirements, but this lawsuit against Kennedy was unsuccessful.[17] On August 27, Kennedy asked state authorities to remove him as a presidential candidate in North Carolina; on August 28, the We the People party officially made the same request to state authorities; both requests were initially denied due to ballots already being printed and upcoming deadlines, with North Carolina law mandating that absentee ballots should be mailed by authorities from September 6.[18][19]

Kennedy responded by launching a lawsuit demanding to be removed as a presidential candidate in North Carolina, with Kennedy previously saying that "by staying on the ballot in the battleground states, I would likely hand the election over to the Democrats", while Kennedy remained as a presidential candidate in non-battleground states and indicated that his lawsuit to become a presidential candidate in New York would continue.[17][19][20] While Wake County Superior Court ruled against Kennedy, he appealed and the North Carolina Court of Appeals ruled for Kennedy on September 6, ordering for authorities to reprint ballots without Kennedy as a candidate.[20] The North Carolina Supreme Court affirmed the Court of Appeals' decision on September 9, so authorities went to reprint the ballots, which delayed the mailing date from the originally stipulated September 6 date to become September 20 for military and overseas voters and September 24 for other voters.[21]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[22] Tossup November 4, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] Lean R November 4, 2024
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[24] Tossup November 4, 2024
CNN[25] Tossup November 4, 2024
CNalysis[26] Tilt D (flip) November 4, 2024
The Economist[27] Tossup November 4, 2024
538[28] Tossup November 4, 2024
Inside Elections[29] Tossup November 4, 2024
NBC News[30] Tossup November 4, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
[b] 		Margin
270ToWin[31] October 23 – November 4, 2024 November 5, 2024 47.3% 48.6% 4.1% Trump +1.3%
538[32] through November 4, 2024 November 5, 2024 47.4% 48.3% 4.3% Trump +0.9%
Silver Bulletin[33] through November 4, 2024 November 5, 2024 47.7% 48.8% 3.5% Trump +1.1%
The Hill/DDHQ[34] through November 4, 2024 November 5, 2024 47.9% 49.4% 2.7% Trump +1.5%
Average 47.6% 48.8% 3.6% Trump +1.2%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
HarrisX[35] November 3–5, 2024 1,815 (RV) ± 2.3% 48% 47% 5%
50.5%[d] 49.5% –
1,600 (LV) 49% 48% 3%
50.2%[d] 49.8% –
AtlasIntel[36] November 3–4, 2024 1,219 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 48% 2%
Patriot Polling[37] November 1–3, 2024 799 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 49% –
InsiderAdvantage (R)[38] November 1–2, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.4% 49% 47% 4%[e]
AtlasIntel[39] November 1–2, 2024 1,310 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 47% 2%
Emerson College[40] October 30 – November 2, 2024 860 (LV) ± 3.3% 49% 48% 3%[f]
50%[d] 49% 1%[f]
New York Times/Siena College[41] October 28 – November 2, 2024 1,010 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 48% 8%
1,010 (LV) 46% 48% 6%
ActiVote[42] October 17 – November 2, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 51% 49% –
Morning Consult[43] October 23 − November 1, 2024 1,056 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 4%
AtlasIntel[44] October 30–31, 2024 1,373 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 47% 2%
YouGov[45][A] October 25–31, 2024 987 (RV) ± 4.2% 49% 49% 2%
949 (LV) 50% 49% 1%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[46][B] October 25–30, 2024 751 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 47% 3%[g]
AtlasIntel[47] October 25–29, 2024 1,665 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% 3%
Trafalgar Group (R)[48] October 25–28, 2024 1,091 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 46% 5%[g]
Fox News[49] October 24–28, 2024 1,113 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 50% 1%
872 (LV) 50% 49% 1%
SurveyUSA[50][C] October 23–26, 2024 853 (LV) ± 4.1% 47% 47% 6%[e]
CES/YouGov[51] October 1–25, 2024 2,330 (A) – 48% 49% 3%
2,308 (LV) 50% 48% 2%
Emerson College[52] October 21–22, 2024 950 (LV) ± 3.1% 50% 48% 2%[h]
50%[d] 48% 2%[h]
Marist College[53] October 17–22, 2024 1,410 (RV) ± 3.3% 49% 48% 3%[i]
1,226 (LV) ± 3.6% 50% 48% 2%[j]
SoCal Strategies (R)[54][D] October 20–21, 2024 702 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 46% 5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[55] October 19–20, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 47% 4%[e]
High Point University/SurveyUSA[56] October 17–20, 2024 1,164 (RV) ± 3.5% 46% 47% 7%[g]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[57] October 16–20, 2024 755 (RV) ± 4.0% 50% 47% 3%
702 (LV) 50% 48% 2%
AtlasIntel[58] October 12–17, 2024 1,674 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 51% –
Elon University[59] October 10–17, 2024 800 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% 8%[k]
Morning Consult[43] October 6−15, 2024 1,072 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 48% 3%
Washington Post/Schar School[60] September 30 – October 15, 2024 965 (RV) ± 3.9% 49% 45% 6%
965 (LV) 50% 47% 3%
Quinnipiac University[61] October 10–14, 2024 1,031 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 50% 3%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[62][B] October 9–14, 2024 1,042 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 46% 3%[g]
Trafalgar Group (R)[63] October 10–13, 2024 1,085 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 45% 6%[l]
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[64][E] October 6–9, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 47% 5%
Emerson College[65] October 5–8, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 48% 3%[f]
50%[d] 49% 1%[f]
Wall Street Journal[66] September 28 – October 8, 2024 600 (RV) ± 5.0% 47% 47% 6%
ActiVote[67] September 7 – October 6, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 51% –
InsiderAdvantage (R)[68] September 29–30, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 49% 1%
Quinnipiac University[69] September 25–29, 2024 953 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 48% 3%
Washington Post[70] September 25–29, 2024 1,001 (RV) ± 3.5% 50% 47% 3%[f]
1,001 (LV) 50% 48% 2%[f]
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[71][F] September 23–29, 2024 401 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 47% 5%
High Point University[72] September 20–29, 2024 814 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 48% 6%[h]
589 (LV) ± 4.9% 48% 48% 4%[h]
Emerson College[73][G] September 27–28, 2024 850 (LV) ± 3.3% 49% 48% 3%[f]
50%[d] 49% 1%[f]
RMG Research[74][H] September 25–27, 2024 780 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 46% 5%[m]
51%[d] 47% 2%[n]
AtlasIntel[75] September 20–25, 2024 1,173 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 51% 1%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[76] September 19–25, 2024 411 (LV) – 49% 49% 2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[77] September 19–25, 2024 889 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 50% 3%
828 (LV) 48% 50% 2%
Fox News[78] September 20−24, 2024 991 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 50% 2%
787 (LV) ± 3.5% 50% 49% 1%
Marist College[79] September 19−24, 2024 1,507 (RV) ± 3.5% 48% 49% 3%[j]
1,348 (LV) ± 3.7% 49% 49% 2%[j]
The Bullfinch Group[80][I] September 20–23, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 49% 3%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[81][B] September 19−22, 2024 1,078 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 46% 5%[e]
New York Times/Siena College[82] September 17–21, 2024 682 (RV) ± 4.2% 48% 47% 5%
682 (LV) 49% 47% 4%
Meredith College[83] September 18−20, 2024 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 48% 4%[o]
Victory Insights[84] September 16−18, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 45% 6%
Emerson College[85] September 15–18, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 49% 3%[f]
49%[d] 50% 1%[f]
Morning Consult[43] September 9−18, 2024 1,314 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 49% 4%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[86][J] September 11–17, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 47% 3%[g]
TIPP Insights[87][K] September 11–13, 2024 973 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 46% 5%
Elon University[88] September 4−13, 2024 800 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 46% 9%[p]
Trafalgar Group (R)[89] September 11–12, 2024 1,094 (LV) ± 2.9% 48% 46% 6%[e]
Quantus Insights (R)[90][L] September 11–12, 2024 815 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 47% 5%[q]
50% 48% 2%[r]
Quinnipiac University[91] September 4–8, 2024 940 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 50% 3%[h]
Morning Consult[43] August 30 – September 8, 2024 1,369 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% 4%
SurveyUSA[92][C] September 4–7, 2024 900 (LV) ± 4.9% 46% 49% 5%
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[93] September 5–6, 2024 692 (RV) ± 3.7% 47% 46% 7%[p]
619 (LV) 48% 47% 5%[s]
Patriot Polling[94] September 1–3, 2024 804 (RV) – 50% 48% 2%
InsiderAdvantage (R)[95] August 29–31, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 48% 3%[s]
ActiVote[96] August 6–31, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 50% 50% –
Emerson College[97] August 25–28, 2024 775 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 48% 3%
50%[d] 49% 1%[f]
SoCal Strategies (R)[98][D] August 26–27, 2024 612 (LV) – 50% 46% 4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[99] August 23–26, 2024 645 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 49% 2%
700 (RV) 47% 49% 4%
Fox News[100] August 23–26, 2024 999 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 49% 1%[g]
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 22, 2024 Democratic National Convention concludes
High Point University/SurveyUSA[101] August 19–21, 2024 1,053 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 46% 9%
941 (LV) 47% 47% 6%
Spry Strategies (R)[102][M] August 14–20, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 47% 6%
August 19, 2024 Democratic National Convention begins
Focaldata[103] August 6–16, 2024 702 (LV) ± 3.7% 50% 50% –
New York Times/Siena College[104] August 9–14, 2024 655 (RV) ± 4.2% 46% 49% 5%
655 (LV) 47% 49% 4%
Trafalgar Group (R)[105] August 6–8, 2024 1,082 (LV) ± 2.9% 49% 45% 6%
Navigator Research (D)[106] July 31 – August 8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 46% 6%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[107] July 26 – August 8, 2024 403 (LV) – 47% 48% 5%
August 6, 2024 Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate.
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[108] July 24–28, 2024 706 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 46% 6%
July 21, 2024 Joe Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president.
July 15–19, 2024 Republican National Convention
July 13, 2024 Attempted assassination of Donald Trump
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[109] May 7–13, 2024 704 (RV) ± 4.0% 50% 40% 10%
Emerson College[110] February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 41% 9%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Others/
Undecided
[t] 		Margin
Race to the WH[111] through October 2, 2024 October 15, 2024 47.1% 47.8% 1.0% 0.8% — 3.3% Trump +0.8%
270toWin[112] October 1 – 11, 2024 October 11, 2024 46.6% 47.0% 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 4.1% Trump +0.4%
Average 47.0% 47.5% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 3.3% Trump +0.5%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
HarrisX[35] November 3–5, 2024 1,815 (RV) ± 2.3% 48% 46% 1% 1% – 4%
49.0%[d] 48.5% 1.6% 0.9% – –
1,600 (LV) 49% 48% 1% 0% – 2%
49.2%[d] 49.0% 1.2% 0.6% – –
AtlasIntel[36] November 3–4, 2024 1,219 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 48% – 1% 0% 1%[g]
AtlasIntel[39] November 1–2, 2024 1,310 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 47% – 1% 0% 2%[g]
New York Times/Siena College[41] October 28 – November 2, 2024 1,010 (RV) ± 3.5% 43% 47% 0% 0% 1% 9%
1,010 (LV) 45% 48% 0% 0% 0% 7%
Focaldata[113] October 3 – November 1, 2024 1,787 (LV) – 48% 48% – 1% 1% 2%
1,785 (RV) ± 2.2% 46% 50% – 1% 1% 2%
1,987 (A) – 46% 48% – 2% 1% 4%
AtlasIntel[44] October 30–31, 2024 1,373 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 47% – 1% 0% 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[114] October 28–31, 2024 1,123 (LV) – 48% 47% – 1% 1% 3%
YouGov[45][A] October 25–31, 2024 987 (RV) ± 4.2% 48% 47% 0% 1% – 4%
949 (LV) 49% 48% 0% 1% – 2%
AtlasIntel[47] October 25–29, 2024 1,665 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 48% – 1% 0% 3%[g]
East Carolina University[115] October 24–29, 2024 1,250 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 48% 0% 0% 0% 2%
CNN/SSRS[116] October 23–28, 2024 750 (LV) ± 4.5% 47% 48% 1% 1% 1% 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[117] October 25–27, 2024 770 (LV) – 48% 46% – 1% 1% 4%
University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[118] October 16–23, 2024 650 (LV) ± 4.2% 47% 45% 1% 1% 0% 6%[u]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[119] October 20–22, 2024 679 (LV) – 48% 47% – 1% 0% 4%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[57] October 16–20, 2024 755 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 46% – 1% 3% 1%
702 (LV) 49% 48% – 1% 1% 1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[120] October 16–18, 2024 843 (LV) – 48% 45% – 1% 0% 6%
AtlasIntel[58] October 12–17, 2024 1,674 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 50% 0% 1% 0% –
Cygnal (R)[121][N] October 6–15, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 47% 1% 0% 1% 4%[u]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[122] October 12–14, 2024 620 (LV) – 48% 46% – 0% 1% 5%
Quinnipiac University[61] October 10–14, 2024 1,031 (LV) ± 3.1% 47% 49% 0% 0% 1% 3%[u]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[123] September 27 – October 2, 2024 753 (LV) – 47% 45% – 1% 0% 7%
Quinnipiac University[69] September 25–29, 2024 953 (LV) ± 3.2% 49% 47% 1% 1% 0% 2%[u]
East Carolina University[124] September 23–26, 2024 1,005 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 47% 0% 0% 1% 3%
AtlasIntel[75] September 20–25, 2024 1,173 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 51% 1% 1% 0% –
CNN/SSRS[125] September 20–25, 2024 931 (LV) ± 3.9% 48% 48% 1% 0% 1% 2%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[76] September 19–25, 2024 411 (LV) – 46% 49% 1% 2% – 2%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[77] September 19–25, 2024 889 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 48% – 1% 3% 2%
828 (LV) 47% 49% – 0% 2% 2%
Fox News[78] September 20−24, 2024 991 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 48% 1% 1% 1% 2%
787 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 47% 1% 1% 1% 1%
New York Times/Siena College[82] September 17–21, 2024 682 (RV) ± 4.2% 46% 46% – 0% 1% 7%
682 (LV) 47% 45% – 0% 1% 7%
Meredith College[126] September 18–20, 2024 802 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 48% 0% 1% 1% 2%[u]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[127] September 16–19, 2024 868 (LV) – 48% 47% – 0% 0% 5%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[86][J] September 11–17, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 46% 1% 1% 1% 3%
Cygnal (R)[128][N] September 15–16, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 45% 2% 0% 1% 6%[u]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[129] September 6–9, 2024 495 (LV) – 44% 45% – 0% 0% 11%
Quinnipiac University[91] September 4–8, 2024 940 (LV) ± 3.2% 46% 49% 0% 1% 0% 4%[f]
YouGov[130][A] August 23 – September 3, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.9% 47% 46% 0% 1% – 6%[g]
East Carolina University[131] August 26–28, 2024 920 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 47% 0% 0% 1% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[132] August 25–28, 2024 1,071 (LV) – 45% 44% – 1% 1% 9%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[99] August 23–26, 2024 700 (RV) ± 4.0% 47% 48% – 1% 2% 2%
645 (LV) 48% 48% – 1% 2% 1%
Fox News[100] August 23–26, 2024 999 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 47% 2% 1% 1% 1%[g]
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Fox News[49] October 24–28, 2024 1,113 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 48% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
872 (LV) 49% 47% 1% 1% 1% 1% –
Wall Street Journal[66] September 28 – October 8, 2024 600 (RV) ± 5.0% 46% 45% 0% 1% 1% 2% 5%
Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[71][F] September 23–29, 2024 401 (LV) ± 4.9% 47% 47% 0% 0% 0% 0% 6%
Spry Strategies (R)[102][M] August 14–20, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% 3% – 1% – 4%
Focaldata[103] August 6–16, 2024 702 (LV) ± 3.7% 46% 47% 5% – 1% 0% 1%
702 (RV) 44% 47% 6% – 1% 0% 2%
702 (A) 43% 47% 7% – 1% 0% 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[133] August 12–15, 2024 601 (LV) – 47% 44% 2% – 0% 1% 6%
New York Times/Siena College[104] August 9–14, 2024 655 (RV) ± 4.2% 42% 45% 5% 0% 2% 1% 4%
655 (LV) 44% 46% 4% 0% 1% 1% 4%
YouGov Blue (D)[134][O] August 5–9, 2024 802 (RV) ± 3.9% 46% 46% 2% 0% 0% 0% 5%
Navigator Research (D)[106] July 31 – August 8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% 3% 0% 1% 0% 4%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[107] July 26 – August 8, 2024 403 (LV) – 44% 46% 4% 0% 1% – 5%
Cygnal (R)[135][N] August 4–5, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 44% 4% – 0% 1% 4%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[136] July 31 – August 3, 2024 714 (LV) – 44% 41% 4% – 0% 1% 10%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[108] July 24–28, 2024 706 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 44% 5% – 0% 4% 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[137] July 22–24, 2024 586 (LV) – 46% 43% 4% – 0% 0% 7%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[138][P] July 17–20, 2024 573 (RV) ± 4.1% 48% 44% 2% 2% 4%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Quantus Insights (R)[90][L] September 11–12, 2024 815 (LV) ± 3.4% 49% 42% 9%[q]
Public Policy Polling (D)[138][P] July 17–20, 2024 573 (RV) ± 4.1% 50% 46% 4%
Emerson College[139][Q] July 15–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 41% 11%
Echelon Insights[140][R] July 1–8, 2024 610 (LV) ± 5.0% 47% 45% 8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[141] July 1–5, 2024 696 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 43% 11%
Spry Strategies (R)[142] June 7–11, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 44% 8%
East Carolina University[143] May 31 – June 3, 2024 1,332 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 43% 9%
North Star Opinion Research (R)[144][K] May 29 – June 2, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 41% 10%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[145][S] May 26–27, 2024 1,053 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 43% 6%
Change Research (D)[146][T] May 13–18, 2024 835 (LV) ± 3.8% 45% 43% 12%
Prime Group[147][U] May 9–16, 2024 472 (RV) – 51% 49% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[148] May 7–13, 2024 704 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 42% 9%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[149] May 6–13, 2024 601 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 41% 11%
High Point University[150] May 5–9, 2024 804 (RV) ± 3.2% 44% 42% 14%
Emerson College[151] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 42% 11%
52%[d] 48% –
John Zogby Strategies[152][V] April 13–21, 2024 641 (LV) – 49% 45% 6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[153] April 8–15, 2024 703 (RV) ± 4.0% 51% 41% 8%
Mason-Dixon[154] April 9–13, 2024 635 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 43% 8%
Quinnipiac University[155] April 4–8, 2024 1,401 (RV) ± 2.6% 48% 46% 6%
High Point University[156] March 22–30, 2024 829(RV) ± 3.4% 45% 42% 14%
Wall Street Journal[157] March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 43% 8%
Marist College[158] March 11–14, 2024 1,197 (RV) ± 3.6% 51% 48% 1%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[159] March 8–12, 2024 699 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 43% 8%
SurveyUSA[160][C] March 3–9, 2024 598 (LV) ± 4.9% 50% 45% 5%
Cygnal (R)[161][W] March 6–7, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 40% 15%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[162] February 12–20, 2024 704 (RV) ± 5.0% 50% 41% 9%
Emerson College[110] February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 44% 9%
Fox News[163] February 8–12, 2024 1,099 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 45% 5%
Meredith College[164] January 26–31, 2024 760 (RV) ± 3.5% 44% 39% 17%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[165] January 16–21, 2024 706 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 39% 12%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[166] November 27 – December 6, 2023 704 (RV) ± 4.0% 49% 40% 11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[167] October 30 – November 7, 2023 702 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 39% 13%
Meredith College[168] November 1–5, 2023 755 (RV) ± 3.5% 39% 40% 22%[v]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[169] October 5–10, 2023 702 (RV) ± 4.0% 47% 43% 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[170] October 7–9, 2023 736 (LV) – 43% 38% 20%
Change Research (D)[171][T] September 1–5, 2023 914 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 42% 12%
Prime Group[172][U] June 14–28, 2023 500 (RV) – 54% 46% –
45% 37% 18%[w]
Opinion Diagnostics[173] June 5–7, 2023 902 (LV) ± 3.3% 43% 40% 18%
Cygnal (R)[174][W] March 26–27, 2023 605 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 45% 12%
Differentiators (R)[175][X] January 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 45% 48% 7%
Emerson College[176] October 27–29, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 40% 9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[177][T] October 7–8, 2022 606 (RV) – 44% 44% 12%
SurveyUSA[178][C] September 28 – October 2, 2022 918 (RV) ± 3.9% 43% 45% 12%
Emerson College[179] September 15–16, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 42% 11%
East Carolina University[180] September 7–10, 2022 1,020 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 45% 9%
Blueprint Polling (D)[181] August 4–6, 2022 656 (LV) ± 3.8% 45% 39% 17%
PEM Management Corporation (R)[182][Y] July 22–24, 2022 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 48% 41% 11%
East Carolina University[183] May 19–20, 2022 635 (RV) ± 4.5% 46% 37% 16%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[138][P] July 17–20, 2024 573 (RV) ± 4.1% 48% 42% 2% – 2% 6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[184] July 16–18, 2024 461 (LV) – 45% 39% 5% – 1% 10%[x]
Emerson College[139][Q] July 15–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 38% 6% 1% 1% 7%[x]
YouGov[185][A] July 4–12, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.7% 44% 40% 4% 0% 1% 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[186] July 8–10, 2024 420 (LV) – 44% 42% 4% – 1% 9%[y]
Echelon Insights[140][R] July 1–8, 2024 610 (LV) ± 5.0% 43% 41% 7% 2% 1% 6%[x]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[141] July 1–5, 2024 696 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 40% 7% 1% 1% 9%[x]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[187] June 8–11, 2024 534 (LV) – 43% 40% 7% – 1% 9%[y]
North Star Opinion Research (R)[144][K] May 29 – June 2, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 32% 9% 3% 2% 10%
Prime Group[147][U] May 9–16, 2024 472 (RV) – 45% 42% 11% 2% 1% –
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[148] May 7–13, 2024 704 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 38% 7% 1% 1% 7%
Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[149] May 6–13, 2024 601 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 36% 8% 3% 1% 8%
Emerson College[151] April 25–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 37% 6% 1% 1% 9%
Meeting Street Insights (R)[188][Z] April 25–28, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 40% 35% 11% – 2% 12%[z]
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[153] April 8–15, 2024 703 (RV) ± 4.0% 48% 38% 5% 1% 0% 8%
Quinnipiac University[155] April 4–8, 2024 1,401 (RV) ± 2.6% 41% 38% 12% 3% 3% 3%
Wall Street Journal[157] March 17–24, 2024 600 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 34% 10% 2% 1% 11%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[159] March 8–12, 2024 699 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 39% 7% 1% 0% 8%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[162] February 12–20, 2024 704 (RV) ± 5.0% 45% 35% 9% 1% 1% 9%
Emerson College[110] February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 37% 5% 1% 1% 10%
East Carolina University[189] February 9–12, 2024 1,207 (LV) ± 3.3% 47% 44% 2% 1% 1% 5%
Fox News[163] February 8–12, 2024 1,099 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 37% 8% 1% 2% 6%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[190] January 16–21, 2024 706 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 32% 9% 1% 1% 12%
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[191] November 27 – December 6, 2023 704 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 34% 8% 1% 1% 11%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Spry Strategies (R)[142] June 7–11, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 37% 8% 10%
Change Research (D)[146][T] May 13–18, 2024 835 (LV) ± 3.8% 41% 38% 11% 10%
Cygnal (R)[192][N] May 4–5, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 38% 9% 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[193] May 2–4, 2024 700 (LV) – 44% 37% 7% 12%
Meredith College[194] April 11–17, 2024 711 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 39% 9% 11%
Cygnal (R)[195][W] April 7–8, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 39% 7% 11%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[196] March 14–17, 2024 642 (LV) – 43% 39% 8% 10%
Marist College[158] March 11–14, 2024 1,197 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 43% 11% –
North Star Opinion Research (R)[197][AA] January 30 – February 4, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 32% 16% 13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[198] December 28–30, 2023 1,220 (LV) – 37% 33% 11% 19%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[199] November 27–29, 2023 620 (LV) – 44% 35% 8% 13%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[170] October 7–9, 2023 736 (LV) – 41% 38% 9% 14%

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Bloomberg/Morning Consult[200] October 30 – November 7, 2023 702 (RV) ± 4.0% 42% 33% 9% 2% 14%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[152][V] April 13–21, 2024 641 (LV) – 45% 39% 16%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[152][V] April 13–21, 2024 641 (LV) – 50% 40% 10%

Donald Trump vs. Roy Cooper vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Roy
Cooper
Democratic 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[138][P] July 17–20, 2024 573 (RV) ± 4.1% 45% 41% 3% 2% 9%

Donald Trump vs. Gavin Newsom

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Gavin
Newsom
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[110] February 14–16, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 34% 17%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Fox News[163] February 8–12, 2024 1,099 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 41% 13%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
East Carolina University[189] February 9–12, 2024 1,207 (LV) ± 3.3% 32% 40% 10% 2% 0% 16%
Fox News[163] February 8–12, 2024 1,099 (RV) ± 3.0% 31% 33% 19% 2% 2% 13%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[199] November 27–29, 2023 620 (LV) – 36% 33% 12% 18%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Opinion Diagnostics[173] June 5–7, 2023 902 (LV) ± 3.3% 46% 40% 13%
Cygnal (R)[174][W] March 26–27, 2023 605 (LV) ± 4.0% 44% 41% 15%
Differentiators (R)[175][X] January 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.5% 49% 44% 7%

Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[199] November 27–29, 2023 620 (LV) – 38% 34% 12% 4% 12%

Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[c] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Pence
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Cygnal (R)[174][W] March 26–27, 2023 605 (LV) ± 4.0% 39% 41% 20%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in North Carolina[201]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
2,898,423 50.86% +0.93%
Democratic
2,715,375 47.65% −0.94%
Green
24,762 0.43% +0.21%
Libertarian
22,125 0.39% −0.49%
Justice for All
12,099 0.21% +0.21%
Constitution
6,863 0.12% −0.02%
Write-in 19,494 0.34% N/A
Total votes 5,699,141 100%

By county

[edit]
County Donald Trump
Republican 		Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Alamance 47,937 53.36% 40,624 45.22% 1,270 1.41% 7,313 8.14% 89,831
Alexander 16,404 79.33% 4,060 19.64% 213 1.03% 12,344 59.69% 20,677
Alleghany 4,900 75.43% 1,533 23.60% 63 0.97% 3,367 51.83% 6,496
Anson 5,525 50.80% 5,253 48.30% 97 0.89% 272 2.50% 10,875
Ashe 11,629 71.55% 4,431 27.26% 193 1.19% 7,198 44.29% 16,253
Avery 7,181 75.68% 2,220 23.40% 88 0.93% 4,961 52.28% 9,489
Beaufort 17,296 65.09% 9,049 34.05% 227 0.85% 8,247 31.04% 26,572
Bertie 3,840 41.80% 5,279 57.47% 67 0.73% -1,439 -15.67% 9,186
Bladen 10,035 59.86% 6,620 39.49% 109 0.65% 3,415 20.37% 16,764
Brunswick 67,658 61.86% 40,557 37.08% 1,163 1.06% 27,101 24.78% 109,378
Buncombe 59,016 36.77% 98,662 61.47% 2,832 1.76% -39,646 -24.70% 160,510
Burke 32,130 70.08% 13,272 28.95% 445 0.97% 18,858 41.13% 45,847
Cabarrus 63,746 53.03% 54,494 45.34% 1,962 1.63% 9,252 7.69% 120,202
Caldwell 33,009 75.81% 10,146 23.30% 385 0.88% 22,863 52.51% 43,540
Camden 4,716 74.81% 1,522 24.14% 66 1.05% 3,194 50.67% 6,304
Carteret 32,508 70.95% 12,813 27.97% 496 1.08% 19,695 42.98% 45,817
Caswell 7,445 61.84% 4,493 37.32% 102 0.85% 2,952 24.52% 12,040
Catawba 59,577 68.39% 26,569 30.50% 963 1.11% 33,008 37.89% 87,109
Chatham 22,507 43.03% 29,014 55.48% 780 1.49% -6,507 -12.45% 52,301
Cherokee 13,883 77.89% 3,686 20.68% 255 1.43% 10,197 57.21% 17,824
Chowan 4,587 60.74% 2,895 38.33% 70 0.93% 1,692 22.41% 7,552
Clay 5,761 74.55% 1,899 24.57% 68 0.88% 3,862 49.98% 7,728
Cleveland 34,654 67.02% 16,603 32.11% 449 0.87% 18,051 34.91% 51,706
Columbus 17,592 66.63% 8,648 32.76% 162 0.61% 8,944 33.87% 26,402
Craven 33,477 59.60% 22,011 39.18% 685 1.22% 11,466 20.42% 56,173
Cumberland 59,840 42.59% 78,631 55.96% 2,042 1.45% -18,791 -13.37% 140,513
Currituck 13,235 73.31% 4,604 25.50% 214 1.19% 8,631 47.81% 18,053
Dare 14,792 58.71% 10,074 39.98% 330 1.31% 4,718 18.73% 25,196
Davidson 67,959 72.72% 24,150 25.84% 1,343 1.44% 43,809 46.88% 93,452
Davie 19,398 72.25% 6,988 26.03% 464 1.73% 12,410 46.22% 26,850
Duplin 14,677 64.10% 8,057 35.19% 164 0.72% 6,620 28.91% 22,898
Durham 32,853 18.16% 144,450 79.85% 3,609 1.99% -111,597 -61.69% 180,912
Edgecombe 9,355 38.26% 14,900 60.95% 193 0.79% -5,545 -22.69% 24,448
Forsyth 87,292 42.64% 114,145 55.76% 3,289 1.61% -26,853 -13.12% 204,726
Franklin 23,938 56.10% 18,167 42.58% 562 1.32% 5,771 13.52% 42,667
Gaston 73,828 61.91% 44,062 36.95% 1,366 1.15% 29,766 24.96% 119,256
Gates 3,538 60.29% 2,268 38.65% 62 1.06% 1,270 21.64% 5,868
Graham 3,883 81.25% 839 17.56% 57 1.19% 3,044 63.69% 4,779
Granville 17,383 54.15% 14,365 44.75% 356 1.11% 3,018 9.40% 32,104
Greene 4,965 58.76% 3,437 40.67% 48 0.57% 1,528 18.09% 8,450
Guilford 109,077 38.27% 171,118 60.03% 4,858 1.70% -62,041 -21.76% 285,053
Halifax 9,778 40.80% 14,014 58.48% 173 0.72% -4,236 -17.68% 23,965
Harnett 39,440 61.86% 23,472 36.81% 845 1.33% 15,968 25.05% 63,757
Haywood 23,393 61.80% 13,913 36.76% 545 1.44% 9,480 25.04% 37,851
Henderson 39,497 56.45% 29,361 41.96% 1,116 1.59% 10,136 14.49% 69,974
Hertford 3,561 36.18% 6,191 62.90% 91 0.92% -2,630 -26.72% 9,843
Hoke 10,547 46.33% 11,896 52.25% 324 1.42% -1,349 -5.92% 22,767
Hyde 1,465 60.51% 931 38.46% 25 1.03% 534 22.05% 2,421
Iredell 72,801 65.66% 36,739 33.14% 1,335 1.20% 36,062 32.52% 110,875
Jackson 11,796 53.76% 9,746 44.42% 400 1.82% 2,050 9.34% 21,942
Johnston 74,878 60.06% 48,116 38.59% 1,684 1.35% 26,762 21.47% 124,678
Jones 3,409 62.40% 2,007 36.74% 47 0.86% 1,402 25.66% 5,463
Lee 17,489 58.14% 12,245 40.71% 347 1.15% 5,244 17.43% 30,081
Lenoir 14,564 52.95% 12,700 46.18% 239 0.87% 1,864 6.77% 27,503
Lincoln 40,183 72.29% 14,842 26.70% 557 1.00% 25,341 45.59% 55,582
Macon 14,981 68.30% 6,675 30.43% 278 1.27% 8,306 37.87% 21,934
Madison 8,275 60.75% 5,090 37.37% 256 1.88% 3,185 23.38% 13,621
Martin 6,601 54.83% 5,360 44.52% 79 0.66% 1,241 10.31% 12,040
McDowell 17,520 74.06% 5,911 24.99% 224 0.95% 11,609 49.07% 23,655
Mecklenburg 187,770 32.51% 376,454 65.19% 13,281 2.30% -188,684 -32.68% 577,505
Mitchell 6,843 77.39% 1,915 21.66% 84 0.95% 4,928 55.73% 8,842
Montgomery 9,044 68.48% 4,055 30.71% 107 0.81% 4,989 37.77% 13,206
Moore 39,617 64.12% 21,436 34.69% 737 1.19% 18,181 29.43% 61,790
Nash 26,431 50.37% 25,508 48.61% 532 1.01% 923 1.76% 52,471
New Hanover 67,949 48.98% 68,814 49.60% 1,971 1.42% -865 -0.62% 138,734
Northampton 3,905 42.38% 5,239 56.85% 71 0.77% -1,334 -14.47% 9,215
Onslow 54,960 67.29% 25,684 31.44% 1,037 1.27% 29,276 35.85% 81,681
Orange 20,806 23.70% 65,444 74.53% 1,557 1.77% -44,638 -50.83% 87,807
Pamlico 5,229 65.56% 2,676 33.55% 71 0.89% 2,553 32.01% 7,976
Pasquotank 10,537 51.80% 9,549 46.94% 257 1.26% 988 4.86% 20,343
Pender 26,042 66.93% 12,460 32.02% 407 1.05% 13,582 34.91% 38,909
Perquimans 5,278 68.85% 2,269 29.60% 119 1.55% 3,009 39.25% 7,666
Person 13,509 61.30% 8,295 37.64% 232 1.05% 5,214 23.66% 22,036
Pitt 40,403 46.37% 45,595 52.33% 1,132 1.30% -5,192 -5.96% 87,130
Polk 8,107 62.04% 4,827 36.94% 134 1.03% 3,280 25.10% 13,068
Randolph 59,357 78.09% 15,951 20.99% 700 0.92% 43,406 57.10% 76,008
Richmond 11,931 60.04% 7,787 39.18% 155 0.78% 4,144 20.86% 19,873
Robeson 29,647 63.39% 16,728 35.77% 395 0.84% 12,919 27.62% 46,770
Rockingham 33,447 67.44% 15,676 31.61% 472 0.95% 17,771 35.83% 49,595
Rowan 50,807 67.39% 23,788 31.55% 799 1.06% 27,019 35.84% 75,394
Rutherford 25,456 73.42% 8,914 25.71% 300 0.87% 16,542 47.71% 34,670
Sampson 18,178 64.46% 9,797 34.74% 226 0.80% 8,381 29.72% 28,201
Scotland 7,767 53.10% 6,754 46.18% 105 0.72% 1,013 6.92% 14,626
Stanly 27,518 74.95% 8,881 24.19% 315 0.86% 18,637 50.76% 36,714
Stokes 21,548 79.29% 5,380 19.80% 247 0.91% 16,168 59.49% 27,175
Surry 28,565 76.16% 8,613 22.96% 330 0.88% 19,952 53.20% 37,508
Swain 4,311 61.13% 2,643 37.48% 98 1.39% 1,668 23.65% 7,052
Transylvania 11,492 55.30% 8,972 43.18% 316 1.52% 2,520 12.12% 20,780
Tyrrell 1,057 60.16% 680 38.70% 20 1.14% 377 21.46% 1,757
Union 86,271 61.91% 51,168 36.72% 1,916 1.37% 35,103 25.19% 139,355
Vance 8,614 42.87% 11,292 56.20% 186 0.93% -2,678 -13.33% 20,092
Wake 236,735 36.22% 402,984 61.66% 13,861 2.12% -166,249 -25.44% 653,580
Warren 3,976 39.71% 5,872 58.64% 165 1.65% -1,896 -18.93% 10,013
Washington 2,768 46.57% 3,138 52.79% 38 0.64% -370 -6.22% 5,944
Watauga 15,254 46.09% 17,225 52.05% 616 1.86% -1,971 -5.96% 33,095
Wayne 31,580 57.67% 22,618 41.30% 564 1.03% 8,962 16.37% 54,762
Wilkes 28,812 79.33% 7,194 19.81% 314 0.86% 21,618 59.52% 36,320
Wilson 19,750 49.32% 19,909 49.72% 386 0.96% -159 -0.40% 40,045
Yadkin 16,439 80.60% 3,739 18.33% 219 1.07% 12,700 62.27% 20,397
Yancey 7,509 66.55% 3,635 32.22% 139 1.23% 3,874 34.33% 11,283
Totals 2,898,423 50.86% 2,715,375 47.65% 85,343 1.49% 183,048 3.21% 5,699,141

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Trump won 11 of 14 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[202][user-generated source]

District Trump Harris Representative
1st 51.06% 47.97% Don Davis
2nd 31.92% 66.21% Deborah Ross
3rd 60.33% 38.52% Greg Murphy
4th 26.53% 71.81% Valerie Foushee
5th 58.22% 40.40% Virginia Foxx
6th 58.11% 41.10% Addison McDowell
7th 56.31% 42.52% David Rouzer
8th 59.14% 39.58% Mark Harris
9th 57.50% 41.71% Richard Hudson
10th 58.18% 40.51% Pat Harrigan
11th 53.96% 44.50% Chuck Edwards
12th 25.99% 72.22% Alma Adams
13th 57.97% 41.11% Brad Knott
14th 57.06% 41.94% Tim Moore

Analysis

[edit]

Although a Southern Bible Belt state, North Carolina has been competitive since the late 2000s – a trend primarily attributed to population growth – as the state has been narrowly decided in every presidential election by less than a 4% margin since 2008, when Barack Obama very narrowly carried the state and became the only Democratic presidential candidate to do so since Jimmy Carter of neighboring Georgia in 1976. However, Republicans have won every single federal statewide race in North Carolina since 2010. It flipped back into the GOP column in 2012 and has been narrowly won by Republican nominee Donald Trump in the past two cycles.

Trump's margin of victory was more than double that of his 2020 margin, though it was slightly less than his 2016 margin. This marked the fifth consecutive election where North Carolina was decided by less than 5%, the longest ongoing such streak out of any state. Trump became the first Republican to win the White House without carrying New Hanover County since Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1956. This is the first time since 2008 the state voted for the winner of the national popular vote. Anson County voted Republican for the first time since 1972 and Pasquotank County since 1988.

Potentially due to the effects of Hurricane Helene, Western North Carolina was one of the few areas of the country to swing towards the Democrats between 2020 and 2024. Despite over 90% of American counties shifting toward Trump during this time period,[203] ten counties in the region bucked this trend and supported Harris to a greater extent than Joe Biden.[aa]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ 464 votes (9.1%) for David (TrimeTaveler) Dunlap, 320 votes (6.3%) for Beau Lindsey, 162 votes (3.2%) for Josh "Toad" Anderson.
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  5. ^ a b c d e "Other" with 2%
  6. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l "Someone else" with 1%
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k "Other" with 1%
  8. ^ a b c d e "Someone else" with 2%
  9. ^ "Another party's candidates" with 2%
  10. ^ a b c "Another party's candidates" with 1%
  11. ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
  12. ^ "Other" with 4%
  13. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  14. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  15. ^ "Third party candidates" & "Undecided" with 2%
  16. ^ a b "Another candidate" with 3%
  17. ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 3%
  18. ^ "Would not vote" with 2%
  19. ^ a b "Another candidate" with 2%
  20. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  21. ^ a b c d e f Randall Terry (C) with 0%
  22. ^ "Someone else" with 17%
  23. ^ No Labels candidate
  24. ^ a b c d Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
  25. ^ a b Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
  26. ^ Charles Ballay (L) with 2%
  27. ^ These were Ashe, Avery, Buncombe, Haywood, Henderson, Macon, Madison, Mitchell, Polk and Transylvania.[204]

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
  2. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by American Thinker
  3. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by WRAL-TV
  4. ^ a b Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
  6. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
  8. ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
  9. ^ Poll conducted for The Independent Center
  10. ^ a b Poll commissioned by AARP
  11. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by American Greatness
  12. ^ a b Poll sponsored by TrendingPolitics
  13. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
  14. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by The Carolina Journal
  15. ^ Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
  16. ^ a b c d Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
  17. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
  18. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NetChoice
  19. ^ Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
  20. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Carolina Forward
  21. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
  22. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
  23. ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by the John Locke Foundation
  24. ^ a b Poll sponsored by NC Values Coalition, a sponsor of the Republican Party
  25. ^ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
  26. ^ Poll sponsored by Carolina Partnership for Reform & Carolina Leadership Coalition
  27. ^ Poll sponsored by the League of American Workers

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