2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
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| Elections in Wisconsin |
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Wisconsin voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Wisconsin has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]
A former Blue Wall state in the Upper Midwest partly located in the Rust Belt, Wisconsin is a clearly purple state today. In 2016, Donald Trump very narrowly won Wisconsin by 0.77% in his surprise sweep of the Midwest and Rust Belt, becoming the first Republican since Reagan in his 1984 landslide to win the state's electoral votes; but in 2020, Democrat Joe Biden flipped Wisconsin back into the Democratic column by an even more narrow 0.63%. Given the state's competitive electoral history coupled with its nearly even partisan lean, Wisconsin was considered to be a crucial battleground in 2024, with almost all major news organizations marking the state as a tossup.[2]
The Wisconsin Green Party attained ballot access after not appearing in 2020.[3]
This was the third consecutive election where Wisconsin was decided by less than one percentage point, the longest such streak for any state. The state had the closest presidential race of all states considering percentage of difference and second-closest margin regarding raw votes after New Hampshire, third-closest margin if Nebraska's 2nd congressional district is included. It also marked the first time since 1988 in which Wisconsin was the most Democratic-leaning of the three Rust Belt swing states (including Michigan and Pennsylvania). Trump's victory made him the first Republican candidate to carry Wisconsin twice since Ronald Reagan did so in 1980 and 1984. He also received nearly 1.7 million votes which was a record for votes cast for a candidate in the history of the state.
As of 2024, Wisconsin has together with Michigan and Pennsylvania, the longest-running active streak among states of voting for the winning presidential candidate, having done so in the latest five presidential elections. The results also extended it to nine consecutive presidential elections where the winning party did not differ between those three states.
Trump won 49.6% of the vote, the highest percentage a Republican candidate has received in Wisconsin since Reagan's 1984 landslide, proclaiming him president-elect and re-elected for a second non-consecutive term. Trump's margin of victory (0.9%) was his lowest across the seven swing states and one of only two swing states that he won with a plurality of the vote. Harris' percentage is the lowest percentage a Democrat candidate has received in the state since Hillary Clinton in 2016. Despite this, due to Trump's 0.9% margin of victory being less than his nationwide 1.5% margin, Wisconsin actually leaned slightly more Democratic than the nation, unlike in 2016 and 2020.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The Wisconsin Democratic primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside contests in Connecticut, New York, and Rhode Island.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 512,379 | 88.6% | 82 | 82 | |
| Uninstructed | 48,373 | 8.4% | |||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 17,730 | 3.1% | |||
| Total: | 578,482 | 100.0% | 82 | 13 | 95 |
Republican primary
[edit]The Wisconsin Republican primary was held on April 2, 2024, alongside contests in Connecticut, New York, and Rhode Island.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 477,103 | 78.97% | 41 | 0 | 0 |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 76,841 | 12.72% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 20,124 | 3.33% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uninstructed | 13,057 | 2.16% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 9,771 | 1.62% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 5,200 | 0.86% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Write-ins | 2,081 | 0.34% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Total: | 604,177 | 100.00% | 41 | 0 | 41 |
General election
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Campaign
[edit]Convention
[edit]The Republican Party held their presidential nomination convention in the Wisconsin city of Milwaukee, where Donald Trump and JD Vance were formally nominated as the GOP ticket.[6][7] This year marked the first time that Milwaukee hosted the Republican National Convention. The Democratic National Convention was selected for Milwaukee in 2020 but much of the convention activity was cancelled due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[8]
Candidates
[edit]The following candidates have qualified for the general election ballot:[9]
- Kamala Harris — Democratic
- Donald Trump — Republican
- Chase Oliver — Libertarian
- Randall Terry — Constitution
- Jill Stein — Green
- Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — Independent[a]
- Cornel West — Independent
- Claudia De la Cruz — Independent
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[10] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Lean D | November 4, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
| CNN[13] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
| CNalysis[14] | Lean D | November 4, 2024 |
| The Economist[15] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
| 538[16] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[17] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
| NBC News[18] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided [b] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270ToWin[19] | October 23 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.8% | 47.7% | 3.5% | Harris +1.1% |
| 538[20] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.3% | 47.3% | 4.4% | Harris +1.0% |
| Silver Bulletin[21] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.7% | 47.7% | 3.6% | Harris +1.0% |
| The Hill/DDHQ[22] | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.4% | 48.7% | 2.9% | Trump +0.3% |
| Average | 48.6% | 47.9% | 3.5% | Harris +0.7% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HarrisX[23] | November 3–5, 2024 | 1,727 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| 51%[d] | 49% | – | ||||
| 1,549 (LV) | 49% | 47% | 4% | |||
| 51%[d] | 49% | – | ||||
| AtlasIntel[24] | November 3–4, 2024 | 869 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Research Co.[25] | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[26] | November 1–3, 2024 | 1,086 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 47% | 5%[e] |
| Patriot Polling[27] | November 1–3, 2024 | 835 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[28] | November 1–2, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 49% | 3%[f] |
| AtlasIntel[29] | November 1–2, 2024 | 728 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Emerson College[30] | October 30 – November 2, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 49% | 49% | 2%[g] |
| 50%[d] | 50% | – | ||||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[31] | October 25 – November 2, 2024 | 798 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 48% | 3%[h] |
| 786 (LV) | 49% | 48% | 3%[h] | |||
| New York Times/Siena College[32] | October 25 – November 2, 2024 | 1,305 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| 1,305 (LV) | 49% | 47% | 4% | |||
| ActiVote[33] | October 10 – November 1, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 49% | – |
| AtlasIntel[34] | October 30–31, 2024 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[35] | October 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| YouGov[36][A] | October 25–31, 2024 | 889 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 51% | 47% | 2% |
| 876 (LV) | 51% | 47% | 2% | |||
| Morning Consult[37] | October 22−31, 2024 | 540 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| TIPP Insights[38][B] | October 28–30, 2024 | 1,038 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| 831 (LV) | 48% | 48% | 4% | |||
| Marist College[39] | October 27–30, 2024 | 1,444 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 48% | 2%[i] |
| 1,330 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 48% | 2%[i] | ||
| Echelon Insights[40] | October 27–30, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| Quantus Insights (R)[41][C] | October 28–29, 2024 | 637 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[42][D] | October 28–29, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[43][E] | October 25–29, 2024 | 818 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 50% | 3%[f] |
| AtlasIntel[44] | October 25–29, 2024 | 1,470 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| CNN/SSRS[45] | October 23–28, 2024 | 736 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 51% | 45% | 4% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[46] | October 26–27, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 49% | 3%[f] |
| CES/YouGov[47] | October 1–25, 2024 | 1,552 (A) | – | 51% | 46% | 3% |
| 1,542 (LV) | 50% | 47% | 3% | |||
| Marquette University Law School[48] | October 16–24, 2024 | 834 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| 51%[d] | 49% | – | ||||
| 753 (LV) | 48% | 47% | 5% | |||
| 50%[d] | 49% | 1% | ||||
| Emerson College[49][F] | October 21–22, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 49% | 3%[g] |
| 49%[d] | 50% | 1%[g] | ||||
| Quinnipiac University[50] | October 17–21, 2024 | 1,108 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[51] | October 18−20, 2024 | 1,083 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 47% | 6%[f] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[52] | October 16–20, 2024 | 635 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| 624 (LV) | 48% | 48% | 4% | |||
| The Bullfinch Group[53] | October 11−18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 47% | 3% |
| 48% | 46% | 7%[j] | ||||
| AtlasIntel[54] | October 12–17, 2024 | 932 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| RMG Research[55][G] | October 10−16, 2024 | 787 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 49% | 3%[k] |
| 49%[d] | 50% | 1% | ||||
| Morning Consult[37] | October 6−15, 2024 | 527 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Washington Post/Schar School[56] | September 30 – October 15, 2024 | 695 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| 695 (LV) | 50% | 47% | 3% | |||
| Patriot Polling[57] | October 12–14, 2024 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[58][E] | October 9–14, 2024 | 1,004 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[59] | October 8–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 48% | 4%[e] |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[60][H] | October 6–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Emerson College[61] | October 5–8, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 2%[g] |
| 49%[d] | 50% | 1%[g] | ||||
| Wall Street Journal[62] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Research Co.[63] | October 5–7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 45% | 8%[l] |
| 50%[d] | 48% | 2%[l] | ||||
| Quinnipiac University[64] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,073 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| Arc Insights[65][I] | October 2–6, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[66][J] | September 24 – October 2, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[67] | September 28–30, 2024 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 47% | 7%[e] |
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[68][K] | September 23–29, 2024 | 408 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| ActiVote[69] | August 29 – September 29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 48% | – |
| New York Times/Siena College[70] | September 21–26, 2024 | 680 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| 680 (LV) | 49% | 47% | 4% | |||
| Marquette University Law School[71] | September 18–26, 2024 | 882 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| 52%[d] | 48% | – | ||||
| 798 (LV) | 50% | 45% | 5% | |||
| 52%[d] | 48% | – | ||||
| AtlasIntel[72] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,077 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 50% | 2% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[73] | September 19–25, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[74] | September 19–25, 2024 | 849 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| 785 (LV) | 51% | 48% | 1% | |||
| Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies[75][L] | September 19–23, 2024 | 400 (LV) | – | 51% | 45% | 4% |
| RMG Research[76][G] | September 17–23, 2024 | 788 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 49% | 1%[g] |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[77][E] | September 19−22, 2024 | 1,071 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 1% |
| Emerson College[78] | September 15–18, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3%[g] |
| 49%[d] | 50% | 1%[g] | ||||
| MassINC Polling Group[79][M] | September 12−18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 53% | 46% | 1% |
| Morning Consult[37] | September 9−18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| Marist College[80] | September 12−17, 2024 | 1,312 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 47% | 3%[m] |
| 1,194 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 49% | 1%[i] | ||
| Quinnipiac University[81] | September 12–16, 2024 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[82][N] | September 11–14, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[83] | September 11–12, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 47% | 4%[n] |
| Morning Consult[37] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 638 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| co/efficient (R)[84] | September 4–6, 2024 | 917 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| CBS News/YouGov[85] | September 3–6, 2024 | 946 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 49% | – |
| Marquette University Law School[86] | August 28 – September 5, 2024 | 822 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| 52%[d] | 48% | – | ||||
| 738 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 49% | 44% | 7% | ||
| 52%[d] | 48% | – | ||||
| Patriot Polling[87] | September 1–3, 2024 | 826 (RV) | – | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[88] | August 28–30, 2024 | 1,083 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 47% | 7%[e] |
| Emerson College[89] | August 25–28, 2024 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| 49%[d] | 50% | 1%[g] | ||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[90] | August 23–26, 2024 | 648 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 44% | 3% |
| 701 (RV) | 52% | 44% | 4% | |||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| YouGov[91][O] | August 15–23, 2024 | 500 (A) | ± 5.3% | 48% | 42% | 10%[o] |
| – (LV) | ± 5.9% | 51% | 46% | 3% | ||
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| BK Strategies[92][P] | August 19–21, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)[93][Q] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| Spry Strategies (R)[94][R] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[95][S] | August 13–19, 2024 | 1,099 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Focaldata[96] | August 6–16, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 52% | 48% | – |
| Quantus Insights (R)[97][C] | August 14–15, 2024 | 601 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| TIPP Insights[98][B] | August 12–14, 2024 | 1,015 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| 976 (LV) | 47% | 47% | 6% | |||
| The Bullfinch Group[99][T] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 51% | 42% | 7% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[100] | August 6–8, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Navigator Research (D)[101] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[102] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 404 (LV) | – | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| New York Times/Siena College[103] | August 5–8, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| 661 (LV) | 50% | 46% | 3% | |||
| Kamala Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| RMG Research [104][G] | July 31 – August 5, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Marquette University Law School[105] | July 24 – August 1, 2024 | 877 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| 49%[d] | 50% | 1% | ||||
| 801 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 49% | 45% | 6% | ||
| 50%[d] | 49% | 1% | ||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[106][U] | July 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[107] | July 24–28, 2024 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Fox News[108] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,046 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Emerson College[109] | July 22–23, 2024 | 845 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| 51%[d] | 49% | – | ||||
| Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| Republican National Convention | ||||||
| Attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[110][V] | July 10–11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[111][B] | July 6–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[112] | May 7–13, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 49% | 10% |
| Emerson College[113] | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| New York Times/Siena College[114] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| 603 (LV) | 46% | 48% | 6% | |||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HarrisX[23] | November 3–5, 2024 | 1,727 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 45% | 45% | 2% | 1% | – | 7% |
| 48.0%[d] | 47.9% | 2.6% | 1.4% | – | – | ||||
| 1,549 (LV) | 47% | 47% | 2% | 1% | – | 3% | |||
| 48.1%[d] | 48.5% | 2.1% | 1.3% | – | – | ||||
| AtlasIntel[24] | November 3–4, 2024 | 869 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | – | 1% | 0% | 1%[n] |
| AtlasIntel[29] | November 1–2, 2024 | 728 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 49% | – | 1% | 0% | 2%[n] |
| New York Times/Siena College[32] | October 25 – November 2, 2024 | 1,305 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 45% | 0% | 2% | 0% | 5% |
| 1,305 (LV) | 48% | 45% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 6% | |||
| Focaldata[115] | October 3 – November 1, 2024 | 1,799 (LV) | – | 50% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 2% |
| 1,613 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 51% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% | ||
| 1,799 (A) | – | 49% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% | ||
| AtlasIntel[34] | October 30–31, 2024 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 49% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[116] | October 28–31, 2024 | 932 (LV) | – | 48% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| YouGov[36][A] | October 25–31, 2024 | 889 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 45% | 0% | 3% | – | 4% |
| 876 (LV) | 49% | 45% | 0% | 2% | – | 4% | |||
| AtlasIntel[44] | October 25–29, 2024 | 1,470 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[117] | October 25–27, 2024 | 746 (LV) | – | 49% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[118] | October 20–22, 2024 | 557 (LV) | – | 49% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[119][W] | October 19–22, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 48% | – | 0% | 1% | 4%[n] |
| Quinnipiac University[50] | October 17–21, 2024 | 1,108 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 48% | 48% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 4%[p] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[52] | October 16–20, 2024 | 635 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 3% | 2% |
| 624 (LV) | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 3% | 2% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[120] | October 16–18, 2024 | 622 (LV) | – | 47% | 46% | – | 0% | 1% | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[121] | October 12–14, 2024 | 641 (LV) | – | 48% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[64] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,073 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 4%[p] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[122] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 533 (LV) | – | 47% | 46% | – | 0% | 1% | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College[70] | September 21–26, 2024 | 680 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | – | 1% | 2% | 4% |
| 680 (LV) | 48% | 46% | – | 1% | 2% | 3% | |||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[74] | September 19–25, 2024 | 849 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| 785 (LV) | 50% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 2% | |||
| Remington Research Group (R)[123][X] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 48% | 1% | 0% | – | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[124] | September 16–19, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Quinnipiac University[81] | September 12–16, 2024 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 47% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3%[p] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[125] | September 6–9, 2024 | 626 (LV) | – | 49% | 46% | – | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| YouGov[126][A] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 47% | 44% | 1% | 1% | – | 7%[f] |
| CNN/SSRS[127] | August 23–29, 2024 | 976 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 44% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[128] | August 25–28, 2024 | 672 (LV) | – | 48% | 44% | – | 0% | 0% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[90] | August 23–26, 2024 | 648 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 44% | – | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 701 (RV) | 51% | 44% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.[q] Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Cornel West Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Others/ Undecided [r] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH[129] | through October 7, 2024 | October 13, 2024 | 47.7% | 46.3% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 2.3% | Harris +1.4% |
| 270toWin[130] | October 2 – 11, 2024 | October 11, 2024 | 47.0% | 45.7% | 2.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 3.1% | Harris +1.3% |
| Average | 47.4% | 46.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 2.6% | Harris +1.4% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIPP Insights[38][B] | October 28–30, 2024 | 1,038 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 44% | 3% | 1% | 1% | – | 5% |
| 831 (LV) | 48% | 47% | 3% | 1% | 1% | – | – | |||
| Echelon Insights[40] | October 27–30, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 48% | 48% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 3% |
| CNN/SSRS[131] | October 23–28, 2024 | 736 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 51% | 45% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| Marquette University Law School[48] | October 16–24, 2024 | 834 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 43% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2%[p] |
| 753 (LV) | 46% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1%[p] | |||
| USA Today/Suffolk University[132][133] | October 20–23, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 48% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 3%[p] |
| AtlasIntel[54] | October 12–17, 2024 | 932 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 1% | – | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| Wall Street Journal[62] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 46% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[68][K] | September 23–29, 2024 | 408 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 45% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| Marquette University Law School[71] | September 18–26, 2024 | 882 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 44% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3%[s] |
| 798 (LV) | 49% | 44% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2%[s] | |||
| AtlasIntel[72] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,077 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | – |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[73] | September 19–25, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 48% | 46% | 0% | 1% | 2% | – | 3% |
| MassINC Polling Group[79][M] | September 12−18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 51% | 45% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[82][N] | September 11–14, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 45% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 4%[t] |
| Marquette University Law School[86] | August 28 – September 5, 2024 | 822 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 47% | 43% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 738 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 48% | 43% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1%[u] | ||
| Z to A Research (D)[134][Y] | August 23–26, 2024 | 518 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | 2% | – | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| YouGov[91][O] | August 15–23, 2024 | 500 (A) | ± 5.3% | 45% | 40% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 9%[v] |
| – (LV) | ± 5.9% | 49% | 45% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 4% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[95][S] | August 13–19, 2024 | 1,099 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 46% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| Focaldata[96] | August 6–16, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 44% | 4% | – | 1% | 0% | 1% |
| 700 (RV) | 50% | 42% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% | |||
| 700 (A) | 50% | 43% | 5% | – | 1% | 0% | 1% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[135] | August 12–15, 2024 | 469 (LV) | – | 48% | 44% | 3% | – | 0% | 0% | 5% |
| The Bullfinch Group[99][T] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 40% | 3% | 1% | 1% | – | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College[103] | August 5–8, 2024 | 661 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 42% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 661 (LV) | 49% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | |||
| Navigator Research (D)[101] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[102] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 404 (LV) | – | 48% | 43% | 5% | 1% | 0% | – | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[136] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 597 (LV) | – | 43% | 43% | 3% | – | 0% | 0% | 11% |
| Marquette University Law School[105] | July 24 – August 1, 2024 | 877 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 45% | 43% | 8% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 801 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 46% | 45% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | ||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[107] | July 24–28, 2024 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 45% | 6% | – | 0% | 3% | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[137] | July 22–24, 2024 | 523 (LV) | – | 44% | 44% | 5% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| Fox News[108] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,046 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 46% | 5% | 1% | 1% | – | 1% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spry Strategies (R)[94][R] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 42% | 3% | 2% | 7% |
| Emerson College[109] | July 22–23, 2024 | 845 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 45% | 3% | 1% | 6% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabrizio Ward (R)[93][Q] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 42% | 4% | 7% |
| Civiqs[138][Y] | July 13–16, 2024 | 514 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 2% |
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette University Law School[105] | July 24 – August 1, 2024 | 877 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 42% | 47% | 11% |
| 801 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 44% | 47% | 9% | ||
| Emerson College[139][Z] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[140][AA] | July 11–12, 2024 | 653 (V) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[141][AB] | July 5–12, 2024 | 1,020 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[110][V] | July 10–11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[111][B] | July 6–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights[142][AC] | July 1–8, 2024 | 617 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[143] | July 1–5, 2024 | 695 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 44% | 9% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[144][AD] | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 490 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[145][N] | June 28 – July 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 50% | 5% |
| Emerson College[146][Z] | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[147] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 593 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| Marquette University Law School[148] | June 12–20, 2024 | 871 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| 50%[d] | 50% | – | ||||
| 784 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 44% | 9% | ||
| 51%[d] | 49% | – | ||||
| Emerson College[149] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| 49%[d] | 51% | – | ||||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[150] | May 30–31, 2024 | 338 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 40% | 38% | 22%[w] |
| 290 (LV) | 40% | 41% | 19%[x] | |||
| KAConsulting (R)[151][AE] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Prime Group[152][AF] | May 9–16, 2024 | 488 (RV) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[112] | May 7–13, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[153] | May 6–13, 2024 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 45% | 9% |
| New York Times/Siena College[154] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| 614 (LV) | 46% | 47% | 7% | |||
| Quinnipiac University[155] | May 2–6, 2024 | 1,457 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 50% | 44% | 6% |
| Emerson College[156] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| 48%[d] | 52% | – | ||||
| Kaplan Strategies[157] | April 20–21, 2024 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 48% | 14% |
| John Zogby Strategies[158][AG] | April 13–21, 2024 | 518 (LV) | – | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| CBS News/YouGov[159] | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,226 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Fox News[160] | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,198 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[161] | April 8–15, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Marquette University Law School[162] | April 3–10, 2024 | 814 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| 49%[d] | 51% | – | ||||
| 736 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 45% | 48% | 7% | ||
| 49%[d] | 51% | – | ||||
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[163][AH] | April 6–9, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Wall Street Journal[164] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Echelon Insights[165][AI] | March 12–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Emerson College[166] | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| 48%[d] | 52% | – | ||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[167] | March 8–14, 2024 | 697 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[168] | February 12–20, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 46% | 12% |
| Emerson College[113] | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Kaplan Strategies[169] | February 23, 2024 | 941 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 39% | 41% | 20% |
| Marquette University Law School[170] | January 24–31, 2024 | 930 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| 49%[d] | 49% | 2% | ||||
| 808 (LV) | 44% | 46% | 10% | |||
| 49%[d] | 50% | 1% | ||||
| Fox News[171] | January 26–30, 2024 | 1,172 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | 6% |
| Focaldata[172] | January 17–23, 2024 | 863 (A) | – | 38% | 43% | 19%[y] |
| – (LV) | 42% | 46% | 12%[z] | |||
| 49%[d] | 51% | – | ||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[173] | January 16–21, 2024 | 697 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[174] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 681 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 45% | 14% |
| J.L. Partners[175][AJ] | November 27 – December 1, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[176] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Emerson College[177] | October 30 - November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 44% | 13% |
| 819 (LV) | 45% | 45% | 10% | |||
| New York Times/Siena College[114] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| 603 (LV) | 47% | 45% | 8% | |||
| Marquette University Law School[178] | October 26 – November 2, 2023 | 908 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 42% | 13% |
| 50%[d] | 48% | 1% | ||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[179] | October 5–10, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Emerson College[180] | October 1–4, 2023 | 532 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 40% | 42% | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[181][AK] | September 25–26, 2023 | 673 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Prime Group[182][AF] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 53% | 47% | – |
| 500 (RV) | – | 37% | 40% | 23%[aa] | ||
| Marquette University Law School[183] | June 8–13, 2023 | 913 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 38% | 14% |
| 52%[d] | 43% | 4% | ||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[184] | April 17–20, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 43% | 9% |
| Emerson College[185] | October 27–29, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 43% | 13% |
| Emerson College[186] | September 16–18, 2022 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 45% | 44% | 11% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[187][H] | November 11–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 52% | 6% |
| Marquette University Law School[188] | October 26–31, 2021 | 805 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 41% | 14% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[189] | July 16–18, 2024 | 470 (LV) | – | 42% | 42% | 6% | – | 1% | 9%[ab] |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[190] | July 15–17, 2024 | 1,087 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 46% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 7% |
| Emerson College[139][Z] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 6%[ac] |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[141][AB] | July 5–12, 2024 | 1,020 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 5%[ac] |
| YouGov[191][A] | July 4–12, 2024 | 900 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 38% | 43% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[B] | July 6–10, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 38% | 11% | – | 3% | 12%[ad] |
| Echelon Insights[142][AC] | July 1–8, 2024 | 617 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 42% | 43% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 6%[ae] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[143] | July 1–5, 2024 | 695 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 39% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[145][N] | June 28 – July 2, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 44% | 9% | – | 3% | 6%[ac] |
| Marquette University Law School[148] | June 12–20, 2024 | 871 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 40% | 43% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 3%[ae] |
| 784 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 42% | 44% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 2%[ac] | ||
| Emerson College[149] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 44% | 6% | 0% | 1% | 7% |
| J.L. Partners[192] | June 5–10, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 44% | 44% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| KAConsulting (R)[151][AE] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 42% | 42% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 6%[af] |
| Prime Group[152][AF] | May 9–16, 2024 | 488 (RV) | – | 44% | 44% | 7% | 3% | 2% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[112] | May 7–13, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 43% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[153] | May 6–13, 2024 | 503 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 41% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| New York Times/Siena College[154] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 614 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 38% | 9% | 0% | 1% | 14%[ag] |
| 614 (LV) | 39% | 40% | 8% | 0% | 0% | 13%[ag] | |||
| Quinnipiac University[155] | May 2–6, 2024 | 1,457 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 40% | 39% | 12% | 1% | 4% | 4% |
| Emerson College[156] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 45% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Fox News[160] | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,198 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 41% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[161] | April 8–15, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 44% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| Marquette University Law School[162] | April 3–10, 2024 | 814 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 40% | 41% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 1% |
| 736 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 41% | 42% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | ||
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[163][AH] | April 6–9, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 37% | 13% | 2% | 4% | 9% |
| Wall Street Journal[164] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 38% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Emerson College[166] | March 14–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[167] | March 8–14, 2024 | 697 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 39% | 41% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[168] | February 12–20, 2024 | 702 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 41% | 10% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| Emerson College[113] | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 41% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 13% |
| Marquette University Law School[170] | January 24–31, 2024 | 930 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 37% | 40% | 16% | 2% | 4% | 1% |
| 808 (LV) | 39% | 41% | 13% | 2% | 4% | 1% | |||
| Fox News[171] | January 26–30, 2024 | 1,172 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 39% | 42% | 7% | 1% | 2% | 11% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[193] | January 16–21, 2024 | 697 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 35% | 43% | 10% | 0% | 2% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[194] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 681 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 34% | 40% | 10% | 1% | 3% | 13% |
| J.L. Partners[175][AJ] | November 27 – December 1, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42% | 37% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 12%[ah] |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs[138][Y] | July 13–16, 2024 | 514 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 47% | 47% | 3% | 3% |
| P2 Insights[195][AL] | June 11–20, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 45% | 4% | 9% |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[150] | May 30–31, 2024 | 338 (RV) | ± 5.3% | 38% | 31% | 13% | 18% |
| 290 (LV) | 40% | 35% | 12% | 13% | |||
| P2 Insights[196][AL] | May 13−21, 2024 | 650 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 44% | 7% | 7% |
| New York Times/Siena College[197] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 37% | 35% | 22% | 6% |
| 603 (LV) | 37% | 35% | 21% | 7% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[198] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 36% | 38% | 13% | 2% | 11% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBS News/YouGov[159] | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,226 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 48% | 8% | 0% |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[158][AG] | April 13–21, 2024 | 518 (LV) | – | 42% | 48% | 10% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[158][AG] | April 13–21, 2024 | 518 (LV) | – | 41% | 41% | 18% |
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[110][V] | July 10–11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Emerson College[113] | February 20–24, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 45% | 19% |
Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Gretchen Whitmer Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[108] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,046 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 50% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[110][V] | July 10–11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 47% | 46% | 7% |
JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
JB Pritzker Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[110][V] | July 10–11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 47% | 47% | 6% |
Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Josh Shapiro Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[108] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,046 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 49% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[110][V] | July 10–11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 46% | 44% | 10% |
Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Pete Buttigieg Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[110][V] | July 10–11, 2024 | 548 (RV) | – | 47% | 46% | 7% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette University Law School[170] | January 24–31, 2024 | 930 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 33% | 45% | 22% |
| 930 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 41%[d] | 57% | 2% | ||
| 808 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 35% | 46% | 19% | ||
| 808 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 42%[d] | 57% | 1% | ||
| New York Times/Siena College[199] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 39% | 52% | 9% |
| 603 (LV) | 39% | 53% | 8% | |||
| Marquette University Law School[178] | October 26 – November 2, 2023 | 908 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 36% | 41% | 23% |
| 44%[d] | 53% | 3% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[c] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Times/Siena College[199] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 603 (RV) | ± 4.8% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| 603 (LV) | 44% | 48% | 8% | |||
| Marquette University Law School[178] | October 26 – November 2, 2023 | 908 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| 48%[d] | 50% | 1% | ||||
| Marquette University Law School[183] | June 8–13, 2023 | 913 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| 49%[d] | 47% | 4% | ||||
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[200] | April 17–20, 2023 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 1,697,626 | 49.60% | +0.58 | ||
| Democratic | 1,668,229 | 48.74% | −0.81 | ||
| Independent |
|
17,740 | 0.52% | N/A | |
| Green | 12,275 | 0.36% | +0.33 | ||
| Libertarian | 10,511 | 0.31% | −0.86 | ||
| Constitution | 4,044 | 0.12% | −0.04 | ||
| Independent | 2,753 | 0.08% | N/A | ||
| Socialism and Liberation | 2,035 | 0.06% | +0.06 | ||
| Independent |
|
561 | 0.02% | −0.14 | |
| Independent |
|
12 | 0.00% | N/A | |
| Independent |
|
1 | 0.00% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 7,131 | 0.21% | +0.02 | ||
| Total votes | 3,422,918 | 100% | |||
By county
[edit]| County | Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 7,763 | 60.26% | 4,443 | 34.49% | 676 | 5.25% | 3,320 | 25.77% | 12,882 |
| Ashland | 4,191 | 46.80% | 4,612 | 51.50% | 152 | 1.70% | -421 | -4.70% | 8,955 |
| Barron | 16,726 | 62.39% | 8,941 | 33.35% | 1,142 | 4.26% | 7,785 | 29.04% | 26,809 |
| Bayfield | 4,860 | 43.24% | 6,107 | 54.33% | 273 | 2.43% | -1,247 | -11.09% | 11,240 |
| Brown | 79,132 | 52.99% | 67,937 | 45.49% | 2,264 | 1.52% | 11,195 | 7.50% | 149,333 |
| Buffalo | 5,213 | 64.36% | 2,765 | 34.14% | 122 | 1.51% | 2,448 | 30.22% | 8,100 |
| Burnett | 7,008 | 64.83% | 3,665 | 33.90% | 137 | 1.27% | 3,343 | 30.93% | 10,810 |
| Calumet | 19,488 | 59.21% | 12,927 | 39.27% | 501 | 1.52% | 6,561 | 19.94% | 32,916 |
| Chippewa | 23,399 | 60.82% | 14,573 | 37.88% | 499 | 1.30% | 8,826 | 22.94% | 38,471 |
| Clark | 10,481 | 68.32% | 4,509 | 29.39% | 350 | 2.28% | 5,972 | 38.93% | 15,340 |
| Columbia | 17,988 | 51.52% | 16,388 | 46.94% | 538 | 1.54% | 1,600 | 4.58% | 34,914 |
| Crawford | 5,113 | 56.16% | 3,860 | 42.39% | 132 | 1.45% | 1,253 | 13.77% | 9,105 |
| Dane | 85,454 | 23.35% | 273,995 | 74.88% | 6,480 | 1.77% | -188,541 | -51.53% | 365,929 |
| Dodge | 33,067 | 65.74% | 16,518 | 32.84% | 715 | 1.42% | 16,549 | 32.90% | 50,300 |
| Door | 10,099 | 48.22% | 10,565 | 50.44% | 280 | 1.34% | -466 | -2.22% | 20,944 |
| Douglas | 11,732 | 46.49% | 13,073 | 51.81% | 429 | 1.70% | -1,341 | -5.32% | 25,234 |
| Dunn | 14,726 | 57.35% | 10,643 | 41.45% | 309 | 1.20% | 4,083 | 15.90% | 25,678 |
| Eau Claire | 27,728 | 43.89% | 34,400 | 54.45% | 1,049 | 1.66% | -6,672 | -10.56% | 63,177 |
| Florence | 2,356 | 74.60% | 783 | 24.79% | 19 | 0.60% | 1,573 | 49.81% | 3,158 |
| Fond du Lac | 37,272 | 63.68% | 20,495 | 35.02% | 760 | 1.30% | 16,777 | 28.66% | 58,527 |
| Forest | 3,382 | 66.35% | 1,681 | 32.98% | 34 | 0.67% | 1,701 | 33.37% | 5,097 |
| Grant | 15,922 | 58.31% | 10,966 | 40.16% | 418 | 1.53% | 4,956 | 18.15% | 27,306 |
| Green | 10,843 | 49.12% | 10,903 | 49.39% | 330 | 1.49% | -60 | -0.27% | 22,076 |
| Green Lake | 7,458 | 67.48% | 3,449 | 31.21% | 145 | 1.31% | 4,009 | 36.27% | 11,052 |
| Iowa | 6,631 | 45.18% | 7,750 | 52.80% | 296 | 2.02% | -1,119 | -7.62% | 14,677 |
| Iron | 2,557 | 62.61% | 1,487 | 36.41% | 40 | 0.98% | 1,070 | 26.20% | 4,084 |
| Jackson | 6,204 | 59.07% | 4,157 | 39.58% | 141 | 1.34% | 2,047 | 19.49% | 10,502 |
| Jefferson | 28,771 | 57.37% | 20,574 | 41.03% | 801 | 1.60% | 8,197 | 16.34% | 50,146 |
| Juneau | 9,525 | 65.45% | 4,854 | 33.35% | 174 | 1.20% | 4,671 | 32.10% | 14,553 |
| Kenosha | 47,478 | 52.36% | 41,826 | 46.12% | 1,376 | 1.52% | 5,652 | 6.24% | 90,680 |
| Kewaunee | 8,267 | 66.22% | 4,059 | 32.51% | 158 | 1.27% | 4,208 | 33.71% | 12,484 |
| La Crosse | 32,247 | 44.63% | 39,008 | 53.98% | 1,006 | 1.39% | -6,761 | -9.35% | 72,261 |
| Lafayette | 5,256 | 59.51% | 3,469 | 39.28% | 107 | 1.21% | 1,787 | 20.23% | 8,832 |
| Langlade | 7,782 | 66.72% | 3,746 | 32.12% | 136 | 1.17% | 4,036 | 34.60% | 11,664 |
| Lincoln | 10,633 | 61.79% | 6,306 | 36.64% | 270 | 1.57% | 4,327 | 25.15% | 17,209 |
| Manitowoc | 28,200 | 60.89% | 17,399 | 37.57% | 717 | 1.55% | 10,801 | 23.32% | 46,316 |
| Marathon | 46,213 | 58.63% | 31,529 | 40.00% | 1,084 | 1.38% | 14,684 | 18.63% | 78,826 |
| Marinette | 16,670 | 68.28% | 7,415 | 30.37% | 330 | 1.35% | 9,255 | 37.91% | 24,415 |
| Marquette | 6,041 | 64.08% | 3,252 | 34.50% | 134 | 1.42% | 2,789 | 29.58% | 9,427 |
| Menominee | 296 | 18.83% | 1,266 | 80.53% | 10 | 0.64% | -970 | -61.70% | 1,572 |
| Milwaukee | 138,022 | 29.74% | 316,292 | 68.15% | 9,793 | 2.11% | -178,270 | -38.41% | 464,107 |
| Monroe | 14,563 | 62.32% | 8,476 | 36.27% | 330 | 1.41% | 6,087 | 26.05% | 23,369 |
| Oconto | 17,675 | 70.95% | 6,967 | 27.97% | 270 | 1.08% | 10,708 | 42.98% | 24,912 |
| Oneida | 14,455 | 58.06% | 10,080 | 40.49% | 360 | 1.45% | 4,375 | 17.57% | 24,895 |
| Outagamie | 60,827 | 54.34% | 49,438 | 44.17% | 1,667 | 1.49% | 11,389 | 10.17% | 111,932 |
| Ozaukee | 34,504 | 54.36% | 27,874 | 43.92% | 1,094 | 1.72% | 6,630 | 10.44% | 63,472 |
| Pepin | 2,798 | 64.26% | 1,523 | 34.98% | 33 | 0.76% | 1,275 | 29.28% | 4,354 |
| Pierce | 14,417 | 56.78% | 10,171 | 40.06% | 804 | 3.17% | 4,246 | 16.72% | 25,392 |
| Polk | 18,296 | 64.83% | 9,567 | 33.90% | 359 | 1.27% | 8,729 | 30.93% | 28,222 |
| Portage | 20,987 | 48.52% | 21,503 | 49.71% | 768 | 1.78% | -516 | -1.19% | 43,258 |
| Price | 5,763 | 65.07% | 3,005 | 33.93% | 88 | 0.99% | 2,758 | 31.14% | 8,856 |
| Racine | 56,347 | 52.33% | 49,721 | 46.17% | 1,618 | 1.50% | 6,626 | 6.16% | 107,686 |
| Richland | 5,207 | 55.85% | 3,985 | 42.74% | 131 | 1.41% | 1,222 | 13.11% | 9,323 |
| Rock | 40,218 | 45.54% | 46,642 | 52.82% | 1,450 | 1.64% | -6,424 | -7.28% | 88,310 |
| Rusk | 5,660 | 68.44% | 2,516 | 30.42% | 94 | 1.14% | 3,144 | 38.02% | 8,270 |
| St. Croix | 35,537 | 58.60% | 23,870 | 39.36% | 1,235 | 2.04% | 11,667 | 19.24% | 60,642 |
| Sauk | 18,798 | 50.02% | 18,172 | 48.35% | 614 | 1.63% | 626 | 1.67% | 37,584 |
| Sawyer | 6,422 | 57.65% | 4,599 | 41.28% | 119 | 1.07% | 1,823 | 16.37% | 11,140 |
| Shawano | 15,850 | 67.45% | 7,336 | 31.22% | 314 | 1.34% | 8,514 | 36.23% | 23,500 |
| Sheboygan | 38,763 | 57.37% | 27,735 | 41.05% | 1,064 | 1.57% | 11,028 | 16.32% | 67,562 |
| Taylor | 8,209 | 73.39% | 2,823 | 25.24% | 154 | 1.38% | 5,386 | 48.15% | 11,186 |
| Trempealeau | 9,661 | 60.08% | 6,219 | 38.68% | 199 | 1.24% | 3,442 | 21.40% | 16,079 |
| Vernon | 8,807 | 53.03% | 7,514 | 45.24% | 288 | 1.73% | 1,293 | 7.79% | 16,609 |
| Vilas | 9,837 | 60.97% | 6,119 | 37.92% | 179 | 1.11% | 3,718 | 23.05% | 16,135 |
| Walworth | 36,603 | 60.40% | 23,161 | 38.22% | 833 | 1.37% | 13,442 | 22.18% | 60,597 |
| Washburn | 6,962 | 63.42% | 3,867 | 35.22% | 149 | 1.36% | 3,095 | 28.20% | 10,978 |
| Washington | 61,604 | 67.40% | 28,504 | 31.18% | 1,299 | 1.42% | 33,100 | 36.22% | 91,407 |
| Waukesha | 162,768 | 59.02% | 108,478 | 39.33% | 4,541 | 1.65% | 54,290 | 19.69% | 275,787 |
| Waupaca | 20,093 | 66.09% | 9,947 | 32.72% | 363 | 1.19% | 10,146 | 33.37% | 30,403 |
| Waushara | 9,625 | 67.01% | 4,571 | 31.82% | 167 | 1.16% | 5,054 | 35.19% | 14,363 |
| Winnebago | 49,179 | 51.57% | 44,660 | 46.83% | 1,532 | 1.61% | 4,519 | 4.74% | 95,371 |
| Wood | 24,997 | 59.21% | 16,599 | 39.32% | 620 | 1.47% | 8,398 | 19.89% | 42,216 |
| Totals | 1,697,626 | 49.60% | 1,668,229 | 48.74% | 57,063 | 1.67% | 29,397 | 0.86% | 3,422,918 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]By congressional district
[edit]Trump won 6 of 8 congressional districts.[202]
| District | Harris | Trump | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 46.89% | 51.39% | Bryan Steil |
| 2nd | 69.16% | 29.12% | Mark Pocan |
| 3rd | 45.46% | 52.84% | Derrick Van Orden |
| 4th | 74.68% | 23.28% | Gwen Moore |
| 5th | 38.15% | 60.24% | Scott L. Fitzgerald |
| 6th | 41.02% | 57.46% | Glenn Grothman |
| 7th | 37.94% | 60.40% | Tom Tiffany |
| 8th | 41.17% | 57.40% | Tony Wied |
Analysis
[edit]Democratic U.S. Senator Tammy Baldwin was reelected on the same ballot. This was the first time that Wisconsin voted for candidates of different political parties for U.S. senator and president since Democrat Gaylord Nelson was reelected as Republican Richard Nixon carried the state in 1968.
With this election, Door County lost its longstanding bellwether status by voting for the losing candidate for the first time since 1992. Trump is the first Republican to ever win without Door County. Trump flipped back Sauk County, which he had won in 2016, maintaining the county's bellwether streak of voting for the statewide winner since 1992.
Harris gained in the three WOW counties compared to Biden in 2020, winning the highest percentage of the vote in them since 1976. Trump gained in the rest of the state, particularly in the Driftless Area in Southwest Wisconsin.
Despite her loss, this was Harris's best performance among the seven swing states, and unlike in 2016 or 2020, Wisconsin actually voted to the left of the country as a whole (the victory margin for Trump was less than that of America as a whole).
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Wisconsin
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ Candidate has suspended campaign, but will stay on the ballot.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ a b c d "Other" with 3%
- ^ a b c d e "Other" with 2%
- ^ a b c d e f g h i "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ a b "Another Candidate" with 1%
- ^ a b c "Another Party's Candidate" with 1%
- ^ "A third party / Independent candidate" with 4%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
- ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Another Party's Candidate" with 2%
- ^ a b c d "Other" with 1%
- ^ "Will not vote" with 4%
- ^ a b c d e f Randall Terry (C) & Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 0% each
- ^ Kennedy suspended his campaign, but he remains on the ballot in Wisconsin.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b Randall Terry (C) with 1%; Claudia De la Cruz (PSL) with 0%
- ^ Randall Terry (C) with 0%
- ^ Randall Terry (C) with 1%
- ^ "Will not vote" with 4%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 12%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 11%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 13%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 9%
- ^ No Labels candidate
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
- ^ a b c d Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 2%; "Other" with 1%
- ^ a b Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
- ^ Lars Mapstead (L) with 1%
- ^ a b Lars Mapstead (L) with 0%
- ^ "Someone else" with 12%
- ^ Listed on the ballot without party affiliation.
- ^ Sonski and Onak were nominated by the American Solidarity Party, but registered as independent write-in candidates because the party was not recognized by the Wisconsin Secretary of State.
Partisan clients
- ^ a b c d Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
- ^ a b c d e f Poll sponsored by American Greatness
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Trending Politics
- ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by American Thinker
- ^ Poll sponsored by RealClearWorld
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by Fields of Freedom Alliance
- ^ Poll conducted for the Article III Project
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
- ^ Poll sponsored by Focus on Rural America
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Wisconsin Watch
- ^ a b c d Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ a b Poll conducted for the Cato Institute
- ^ Poll sponsored by Platform Communications
- ^ a b Poll conducted for the Pinpoint Policy Institute
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
- ^ a b Poll conducted for The Independent Center
- ^ Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
- ^ a b c d e f g Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Senate Opportunity Fund
- ^ Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republican candidates
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Rust Belt Rising, which supports Democratic candidates
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
- ^ Poll conducted for Protect Our Care
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by NetChoice
- ^ Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
- ^ a b Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by League of American Workers
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Daily Mail
- ^ Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Building America's Future, which supports Republican candidates
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 8, 2024.
- ^ D'Andrea, Robert (February 9, 2024). "Green Party candidate will appear on Wisconsin's presidential ballot". WPR. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
- ^ "Wisconsin Presidential Primary". The AP. May 7, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
- ^ "Wisconsin Presidential Primary". Dave Leip's Atlas. May 7, 2024. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
- ^ Baker, Graeme (July 15, 2024). "JD Vance named as Trump's running mate". BBC (Digital). Retrieved August 12, 2024.
- ^ "RNC 2024: Dates, which city has hosted the most conventions, and how Wisconsin impacts the presidential race". NBC 5 Chicago (Digital). July 2, 2024. Retrieved August 12, 2024.
- ^ Glauber, Bill; Spicuzza, Mary (March 11, 2019). "Milwaukee wins tight race to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention". Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (Digital). Retrieved August 12, 2024.
- ^ "Wisconsin's 2024 Presidential ballot is set — here are the eight sets of candidates". WTMJ. August 27, 2024. Retrieved September 4, 2024.
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- ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN.
- ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com. CNalysis. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
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- ^ "Presidential Ratings". Inside Elections.
- ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
- ^ 270ToWin
- ^ 538
- ^ Silver Bulletin
- ^ The Hill/DDHQ
- ^ a b "HarrisX Battleground State Poll (Nov 3-5): Wisconsin". HarrisX. November 5, 2024.
- ^ a b "Atlas Poll - US Key States - November 4, 2024" (PDF). AtlasIntel. November 4, 2024.
- ^ Canseco, Mario (November 4, 2024). "Battleground States Remain Closely Contested in U.S. Race". Research Co.
- ^ "Wisconsin Presidential General Election Survey - November 2024" (PDF). The Trafalgar Group. November 3, 2024.
- ^ Ruggieri, Lucca (November 3, 2024). "Final 2024 Presidential Poll". Patriot Polling.
- ^ "InsiderAdvantage Surveys: AZ, MI, WI, PA, NC". InsiderAdvantage. November 3, 2024.
- ^ a b "Atlas Poll - US Swing States - November 2, 2024" (PDF). AtlasIntel. November 2, 2024.
- ^ "November 2024 Final Swing State Polls: Too-Close-To-Call Election for President". Emerson College Polling. November 4, 2024.
- ^ "Mainstreet Research Survey - Wisconsin" (PDF). FAU Polling. November 4, 2024.
- ^ a b Lerer, Lisa; Igielnik, Ruth (November 3, 2024). "Harris and Trump Battle to the Wire in Swing States, Times/Siena Polls Find". The New York Times.
- ^ Allis, Victor (November 2, 2024). "Harris Has Small Lead in Wisconsin". ActiVote. Retrieved November 2, 2024.
- ^ a b "Atlas Poll - US Swing States - October 31, 2024" (PDF). AtlasIntel. October 31, 2024.
- ^ Weigel, David (November 1, 2024). "The view from the swing states". Semafor.
- ^ a b "The Times / SAY Poll: October 25-31, 2024" (PDF). YouGov. November 1, 2024.
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