2024 United States Senate election in Washington
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 County results Cantwell: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% Garcia: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Washington |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Washington. Democratic incumbent Senator Maria Cantwell was elected to her fifth term, winning over Republican physician Raul Garcia.
Primary election
[edit]Democratic candidates
[edit]Advanced to general
[edit]- Maria Cantwell, incumbent U.S. senator[1]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Paul Giesick, blue collar worker[2]
Republican candidates
[edit]Advanced to general
[edit]Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Goodspaceguy, amateur astronomer and perennial candidate[2]
- Isaac Holyk, software development company CEO and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[2]
- Scott Nazarino, financial consultant and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[2]
- Mel Ram, private investigator[2]
Declined
[edit]- John Guenther, retired state employee and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 (ran for U.S. House)[4]
Third party and independent candidates
[edit]Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Thor Amundson (Independent), project expediter and perennial candidate[2]
- Henry Dennison (Socialist Workers), political organizer and perennial candidate[2]
- Chuck Jackson (Independent), merchant mariner and perennial candidate[2]
- David Tilton (Independent), data analyst[2]
Endorsements
[edit]Maria Cantwell (D)
- Organizations
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC)[5]
- EMILY's List[6]
- Feminist Majority PAC[7]
- Humane Society Legislative Fund[8]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[9]
- Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs[10]
- J Street PAC[11]
- League of Conservation Voters[12]
- Natural Resources Defense Council[13]
- National Women's Political Caucus[14]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[15]
- Population Connection Action Fund[16]
- Labor unions
- Newspapers
- Tribes
Raul Garcia (R)
- U.S. representatives
- Dave Reichert (WA-08) (2005–2019)[22]
- Statewide officials
- Daniel J. Evans, former governor of Washington (1965–1977)[23]
- Rob McKenna, former attorney general of Washington (2005–2013)[23]
- Ralph Munro, former secretary of state of Washington (1981–2001)[23]
- Sam Reed, former secretary of state of Washington (2001–2013)[23]
- State legislators
- Dino Rossi, former state senator (1997–2003, 2012, 2016–2017)[23]
- Local officials
- Organizations
- Political parties
- Washington State Republican Party[25]
- Spokane County Republican Party[26]
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Maria Cantwell (D) | $11,651,974 | $5,128,836 | $7,093,030 |
| Raul Garcia (R) | $558,646 | $394,077 | $164,568 |
| Isaac Holyk (R) | $6,846 | $7,278 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[27] | |||
Results
[edit]
Cantwell—70–80%
Cantwell—50–60%
Cantwell—40–50%
Cantwell—30–40%
Garcia—30–40%
Garcia—40–50%
Cantwell won 28 counties out of 39, including 9 out of the state's 10 most populous ones. She performed especially well in the most populous King County, as well as San Juan and Jefferson counties.[28]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Maria Cantwell (incumbent) | 1,114,327 | 57.18% | |
| Republican | Raul Garcia | 431,182 | 22.13% | |
| Republican | Scott Nazarino | 111,386 | 5.72% | |
| Republican | Isaac Holyk | 110,701 | 5.68% | |
| Republican | Mel Ram | 86,956 | 4.46% | |
| Independent | Chuck Jackson | 21,055 | 1.08% | |
| Independent | David Tilton | 17,561 | 0.90% | |
| Democratic | Paul Giesick | 17,433 | 0.89% | |
| Republican | Goodspaceguy | 16,826 | 0.86% | |
| Independent | Thor Amundson | 10,587 | 0.54% | |
| Socialist Workers | Henry Dennison | 7,840 | 0.40% | |
| Write-in | 2,862 | 0.15% | ||
| Total votes | 1,948,716 | 100.0% | ||
General election
[edit]Debate
[edit]| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Not invited I Invited W Withdrawn |
||||||
| Maria Cantwell | Raul Garcia | |||||
| 1 | Oct. 8, 2024 | Gonzaga University KSPS-TV The Black Lens The Spokesman-Review Washington State Debate Coalition |
Orion Donovan Smith | TVW | P | P |
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[30] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[31] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[32] | Safe D | November 9, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[33] | Safe D | June 8, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[34] | Safe D | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis[35] | Solid D | November 21, 2023 |
| RealClearPolitics[36] | Solid D | August 5, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[37] | Safe D | October 23, 2024 |
| 538[38] | Solid D | October 23, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Raul Garcia (R) |
Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270ToWin | October 20 - November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 55.5% | 38.0% | 6.5% | Cantwell +17.5% |
| TheHill/DDHQ | through November 3, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 57.8% | 38.9% | 3.3% | Cantwell +18.9% |
| Average | 56.7% | 38.5% | 4.8% | Cantwell +18.2% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Raul Garcia (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Co. | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 58% | 38% | – | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | October 16–17, 2024 | 571 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 53% | 38% | – | 9% |
| SurveyUSA[B] | October 9–14, 2024 | 703 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 55% | 32% | – | 13% |
| Cascade PBS/Elway Research | September 3–6, 2024 | 403 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 55% | 33% | 4%[c] | 7% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | July 24–25, 2024 | 581 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 55% | 32% | 6%[d] | 7% |
| SurveyUSA[B] | July 10–13, 2024 | 564 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 58% | 37% | – | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | May 15–16, 2024 | 615 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 53% | 38% | – | 9% |
| Cascade PBS/Elway Research | May 13–16, 2024 | 403 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 39% | 30% | 1%[e] | 30% |
| Echelon Insights (R)[C] | March 18–21, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 44% | 36% | – | 19% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | February 13–14, 2024 | 789 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 53% | 37% | – | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | November 14–15, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 51% | 38% | – | 11% |
| Elway Research[D] | October 30 – November 3, 2023 | 403 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 23% | 9%[f] | 25% |
Hypothetical polling
- Maria Cantwell vs. Jaime Herrera Beutler
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Maria Cantwell (D) |
Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | June 7–8, 2023 | 773 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 52% | 37% | 11% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[A] | March 7–8, 2023 | 874 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 35% | 14% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Maria Cantwell (incumbent) | 2,252,577 | 59.09% | +0.66% | |
| Republican | Raul Garcia | 1,549,187 | 40.64% | −0.93% | |
| Write-in | 10,612 | 0.28% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 3,812,376 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Notes
[edit]- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "No answer" with 3%; "I may not vote in this race" with 1%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 6%
- ^ "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "A different Republican" with 6%; "A different Democrat" with 3%
- Partisan clients
- ^ a b c d e f g Poll sponsored by the Northwest Progressive Institute
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Seattle Times, KING-TV, and University of Washington Information School
- ^ Poll sponsored by Concerned Taxpayers of Washington State PAC
- ^ Poll sponsored by Crosscut.com
References
[edit]- ^ Everett, Burgess (April 13, 2023). "Will Women US Senators Run the Table in 2024?". Smart Politics. Retrieved July 7, 2023.
eight of the 14 women in the chamber up for election have already announced they are seeking another term: Republican Deb Fischer of Nebraska and Democrats Mazie Hirono of Hawaii, Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, Jacky Rosen of Nevada (pictured), Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, Maria Cantwell of Washington, and Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i "PRIMARY 2024 Candidate List". voter.votewa.gov. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
- ^ Sowersby, Shauna (July 7, 2023). "Raul Garcia drops out of governor's race, will run for US Senate in 2024". KING-TV. Retrieved July 7, 2023.
- ^ Dinman, Emry (February 16, 2024). "Brian Dansel and John Guenther enter race for Congress; Michael Baumgartner, Nadine Woodward considering". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved February 16, 2024.
[Guenther] initially planned to run for Senate again, this time against Cantwell, but decided to run for U.S. House
- ^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
- ^ Wang, Danni (April 27, 2023). "Emilys List Endorses Maria Cantwell for Reelection to the United States Senate". Emilys List. Retrieved October 2, 2023.
- ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
- ^ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
- ^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
- ^ "Maria Cantwell". JStreetPAC. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
- ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
- ^ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
- ^ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved March 18, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsed Candidates". Planned Parenthood Action Fund. Retrieved November 6, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
- ^ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved May 26, 2024.
- ^ Villeneuve, Andrew (May 19, 2024). "Read the list of candidates endorsed by the Washington State Labor Council for the 2024 cycle". NPI's Cascadia Advocate. Retrieved May 26, 2024.
- ^ "Here's who The Seattle Times editorial board recommends for U.S. Senate | Editorial". The Seattle Times. July 19, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ Board, Stranger Election Control. "The Stranger's Endorsements for the August, 6, 2024 Primary Election". The Stranger. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ staff, Source ONE News (July 17, 2024). "Colville Tribes Endorse Maria Cantwell for U.S. Senate Re-election". Source ONE News. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
- ^ O'Sullivan, Joseph (July 7, 2023). "Raul Garcia drops WA governor bid after Dave Reichert announces run". Crosscut.com. Retrieved July 12, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f Villeneuve, Andrew (November 17, 2023). "Senator Maria Cantwell leads Republican challenger Raul Garcia by thirteen points". The Cascadia Advocate. Retrieved November 29, 2023.
- ^ https://www.washingtonmainstream.org/endorsements-1
- ^ "Endorsements and discord: WA GOP wraps up Spokane convention". April 20, 2024. Retrieved April 23, 2024.
- ^ https://spokanegop.com/
- ^ "2024 Election United States Senate - Washington". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Washington Election Results". AP News. Retrieved August 22, 2024.
- ^ "August 6, 2024 Primary Results - U.S. Senator". Washington Secretary of State.
- ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
- ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
- ^ "November 5, 2024 General Election Results - U.S. Senator".
External links
[edit]- Official campaign websites