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2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota

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Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic (DFL) Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Projected electoral vote 10 0
Popular vote 1,656,979 1,519,032
Percentage 50.92% 46.68%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic (DFL)

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in Minnesota
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2012
Minneapolis
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Mayoral elections

The 2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Minnesota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Minnesota has 10 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

Democrat Kamala Harris, running with Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, won the state by 4.2 points, marking the thirteenth consecutive Democratic presidential win in Minnesota, the longest-active such streak of any U.S. state. Her margin was lower than Joe Biden's 7-point margin in 2020, but better than Hillary Clinton's 1.5-point margin in 2016. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Minnesota a state Harris would win, or otherwise a lean to likely blue state.

Background

[edit]

Incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden was running for reelection to a second term and became the Democratic presumptive nominee, but he withdrew from the race on July 21.[2][3] He then endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, who launched her presidential campaign the same day.[4] The Republican nominee was former president Donald Trump.[5] Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has qualified for the ballot.[6] Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate.[7] This decision was seen as a strategic effort to bolster support in the Midwest as well as among progressives. Walz's local popularity, progressive stances, and his record of addressing state-level issues were expected to positively influence voter turnout in Minnesota, and potentially secure the state for the Democratic ticket.[8]

Primary elections

[edit]

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Minnesota Republican presidential primary

The Minnesota Republican primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Minnesota Republican primary, March 5, 2024[9][10]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 232,846 68.94% 27 0 27
Nikki Haley 97,182 28.77% 12 0 12
Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) 4,085 1.21% 0 0 0
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 1,470 0.44% 0 0 0
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 1,431 0.42% 0 0 0
Write-ins 720 0.21% 0 0 0
Total: 337,014 100.00% 39 0 39


Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Minnesota Democratic presidential primary

The Minnesota Democratic primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

Minnesota Democratic primary, March 5, 2024[11]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 171,278 70.1% 64 64
Uncommitted 45,914 18.8% 11 11
Dean Phillips 18,960 7.8%
Marianne Williamson 3,459 1.4%
Write-in votes 2,000 0.8%
Jason Palmer 758 0.3%
Cenk Uygur 692 0.3%
Armando Perez-Serrato 372 0.2%
Gabriel Cornejo 323 0.1%
Frankie Lozada 290 0.1%
Eban Cambridge 235 0.1%
Total: 244,281 100% 75 17 92
[edit]
Main article: 2024 Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now presidential primary

The Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now primary was held on Super Tuesday, March 5, 2024.

2024 Minnesota Legal Marijuana Now primary
Candidate Votes Percentage Delegates
Krystal Gabel (withdrew) 759 28.84% -
Dennis Schuller 459 17.44% 7
Vermin Supreme 397 15.08% 6
Rudy Reyes 365 13.87% 5
Edward Forchion 168 6.38% 2
Willie Nelson (write-in) 19 0.72% 0
Other write-ins 465 17.67% -
Total: 2,632 100.00% 20
Source:[12]

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

The following presidential candidates received ballot access in Minnesota:[13]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[14] Likely D August 27, 2024
Inside Elections[15] Lean D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[16] Likely D August 6, 2024
The Economist[17] Likely D August 23, 2024
CNalysis[18] Solid D August 6, 2024
CNN[19] Lean D August 25, 2024
538[20] Likely D August 23, 2024
NBC News[21] Likely D October 6, 2024
YouGov[22] Likely D October 16, 2024
Split Ticket[23] Likely D November 1, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270ToWin[24] October 16–November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 49.8% 43.6% 6.6% Harris +6.2%
538[25] through November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 50.0% 44.2% 5.8% Harris +5.8%
Silver Bulletin[26] through November 3, 2024 November 3, 2024 50.4% 43.9% 5.7% Harris +6.5%
The Hill/DDHQ[27] through November 3, 2024 November 3, 2024 49.9% 45.5% 4.6% Harris +4.4%
Average 50.0% 44.3% 5.7% Harris +5.7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[28] November 3–4, 2024 2,065 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 47% 4%
Research Co.[29] November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 51% 44% 5%
ActiVote[30] October 9 – November 1, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 52% 48% –
SurveyUSA[31][A] October 24–28, 2024 728 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 43% 5%[c]
Rasmussen Reports (R)[32][B] October 24–26, 2024 959 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 47% 3%[c]
CES/YouGov[33] October 1–25, 2024 1,278 (A) – 52% 44% 4%
1,275 (LV) 53% 43% 4%
Embold Research/MinnPost[34] October 16–22, 2024 1,734 (LV) ± 2.4% 48% 45% 7%[d]
ActiVote[35] September 10 – October 9, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 53% 47% –
SurveyUSA[36][A] September 23–26, 2024 646 (LV) ± 4.3% 50% 44% 6%
Rasmussen Reports (R)[37][B] September 19−22, 2024 993 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 46% 5%
Mason-Dixon[38][C] September 16−18, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 43% 9%[c]
Morning Consult[39] September 9−18, 2024 517 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 43% 7%
Embold Research/MinnPost[40] September 4–8, 2024 1,616 (LV) ± 2.8% 49% 45% 6%[e]
Morning Consult[39] August 30 – September 8, 2024 501 (LV) ± 4.0% 51% 44% 5%
SurveyUSA[41][A] August 27–29, 2024 635 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 43% 9%
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 19–22, 2024 Democratic National Convention
SurveyUSA[42][A] July 23–25, 2024 656 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 40% 10%[f]
Fox News[43] July 22–24, 2024 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 46% 2%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
AtlasIntel[28] November 3–4, 2024 2,065 (LV) ± 2.0% 49% 47% – 2% 1% 1%[g]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[44] October 12–14, 2024 544 (LV) – 51% 43% – 1% 0% 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[45] September 27 – October 2, 2024 551 (LV) – 51% 43% – 0% 1% 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[46] September 16–19, 2024 703 (LV) – 50% 44% – 1% 0% 5%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[47] September 6–9, 2024 617 (LV) – 51% 44% – 0% 0% 5%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert
Kennedy Jr
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Chism Strategies[48] October 28–30, 2024 534 (LV) ± 4.2% 48% 43% 1% – 1% 0% 7%[h]
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[49] August 12–15, 2024 592 (LV) – 47% 40% 3% – 0% 0% 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[50] July 31 – August 3, 2024 538 (LV) – 46% 41% 3% – 0% 0% 10%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[51] July 22–24, 2024 475 (LV) – 44% 41% 6% – 1% 0% 8%
Fox News[43] July 22–24, 2024 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 41% 7% 1% 1% – 3%


Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[52] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 45% 10%
1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 51%[i] 49% –
SurveyUSA[53][A] June 12–16, 2024 626 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 41% 12%[j]
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[54][D] June 9–11, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 45% 47% 8%
SurveyUSA[55][A] May 8–11, 2024 625 (LV) ± 4.3% 44% 42% 14%[k]
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[56][D] April 29 – May 1, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 49% 5%
John Zogby Strategies[57][E] April 13–21, 2024 417 (LV) – 46% 44% 10%
SurveyUSA[58][A] April 3–7, 2024 608 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 42% 14%[l]
SurveyUSA[59][A] February 23–28, 2024 1,603 (LV) ± 2.8% 42% 38% 20%[k]
SurveyUSA[60][A] January 24–29, 2024 1,594 (LV) ± 2.8% 42% 39% 19%[k]
Big Data Poll (R)[61] November 18–23, 2023 854 (RV) ± 3.4% 37% 38% 25%[m]
784 (LV) 39% 39% 22%[n]
Embold Research/MinnPost[62] November 14–17, 2023 1,519 (LV) ± 2.6% 45% 42% 13%
Emerson College[63] October 1–4, 2023 477 (LV) ± 4.4% 40% 38% 22%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[64] May 6–8, 2023 500 (LV) – 48% 40% 12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[52] June 13–18, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 42% 6% 1% 1% 9%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[54][D] June 9–11, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 37% 41% 7% 2% 2% 11%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[56][D] April 29 – May 1, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 40% 9% 1% 1% 9%
Big Data Poll (R)[61] November 18–23, 2023 854 (RV) ± 3.4% 35% 36% 8% 2% 2% 17%[o]
784 (LV) 37% 37% 9% 2% 2% 13%[o]

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Mason-Dixon[65][C] June 3–5, 2024 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 45% 41% 6% 9%
Big Data Poll (R)[61] November 18–23, 2023 854 (RV) ± 3.4% 35% 35% 9% 21%[p]
784 (LV) 38% 36% 9% 17%[p]
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[57][E] April 13–21, 2024 417 (LV) – 40% 46% 14%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[57][E] April 13–21, 2024 417 (LV) – 47% 36% 17%

Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Gretchen
Whitmer
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Fox News[43] July 22–24, 2024 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 46% 5%

Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Shapiro
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Fox News[43] July 22–24, 2024 1,071 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 45% 6%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[64] May 6–8, 2023 500 (LV) – 45% 43% 12%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Minnesota[66]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic (DFL)
1,656,979 50.92 −1.48%
Republican
1,519,032 46.68 +1.40%
We the People
24,001 0.74 N/A
Green
16,275 0.50 +0.19%
Libertarian
15,155 0.47 −0.60%
Justice For All
3,136 0.10 N/A
Socialism and Liberation
2,996 0.09 +0.05%
Independent
2,885 0.09 N/A
Socialist Workers
457 0.01 −0.01%
Write-in 13,004 0.40 +0.10%
Total votes 3,253,920 100.00 N/A

By county

[edit]
County Kamala Harris
DFL 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Aitkin 3,524 33.74% 6,741 64.53% 181 1.73% -3,217 -30.79% 10,446
Anoka 97,667 46.40% 106,974 50.82% 5,840 2.77% -9,307 -4.42% 210,481
Becker 6,435 32.60% 12,961 65.66% 343 1.74% -6,526 -33.06% 19,739
Beltrami 11,493 46.20% 12,898 51.85% 483 1.94% -1,405 -5.65% 24,874
Benton 7,084 31.04% 15,260 66.86% 480 2.10% -8,176 -35.82% 22,824
Big Stone 964 34.14% 1,796 63.60% 64 2.27% -832 -29.46% 2,824
Blue Earth 17,558 48.18% 18,001 49.40% 883 2.42% -443 -1.22% 36,442
Brown 4,576 31.35% 9,692 66.39% 330 2.26% -5,116 -35.04% 14,598
Carlton 9,905 47.59% 10,435 50.13% 475 2.28% -530 -2.54% 20,815
Carver 31,869 46.08% 35,586 51.45% 1,705 2.47% -3,717 -5.37% 69,160
Cass 6,300 32.54% 12,759 65.89% 304 1.57% -6,459 -33.35% 19,363
Chippewa 2,026 32.07% 4,175 66.08% 117 1.85% -2,149 -34.01% 6,318
Chisago 11,894 33.41% 23,047 64.74% 660 1.85% -11,153 -31.33% 35,601
Clay 16,121 49.04% 15,965 48.56% 788 2.40% 156 0.48% 32,874
Clearwater 1,169 24.28% 3,575 74.26% 70 1.45% -2,406 -49.98% 4,814
Cook 2,416 66.01% 1,142 31.20% 102 2.79% 1,274 34.81% 3,660
Cottonwood 1,705 28.47% 4,157 69.42% 126 2.10% -2,452 -40.95% 5,988
Crow Wing 14,173 33.45% 27,423 64.73% 770 1.82% -13,250 -31.28% 42,366
Dakota 143,267 55.14% 109,995 42.34% 6,543 2.52% 33,272 12.80% 259,805
Dodge 4,108 32.91% 8,095 64.84% 281 2.25% -3,987 -31.93% 12,484
Douglas 7,938 31.62% 16,726 66.62% 442 1.76% -8,788 -35.00% 25,106
Faribault 2,352 30.31% 5,247 67.61% 162 2.09% -2,895 -37.30% 7,761
Fillmore 4,491 36.26% 7,638 61.67% 256 2.07% -3,147 -25.41% 12,385
Freeborn 6,448 38.60% 10,003 59.88% 253 1.51% -3,555 -21.28% 16,704
Goodhue 11,731 40.71% 16,461 57.12% 625 2.17% -4,730 -16.41% 28,817
Grant 1,187 33.50% 2,266 63.96% 90 2.54% -1,079 -30.46% 3,543
Hennepin 502,710 69.80% 197,244 27.39% 20,219 2.81% 305,466 42.41% 720,173
Houston 4,667 40.84% 6,547 57.29% 214 1.87% -1,880 -16.45% 11,428
Hubbard 4,536 33.31% 8,809 64.69% 272 2.00% -4,273 -31.38% 13,617
Isanti 7,384 28.49% 18,027 69.55% 507 1.96% -10,643 -41.06% 25,918
Itasca 10,467 39.00% 15,863 59.10% 510 1.90% -5,396 -20.10% 26,840
Jackson 1,581 28.01% 3,949 69.97% 114 2.02% -2,368 -41.96% 5,644
Kanabec 2,718 28.01% 6,818 70.27% 167 1.72% -4,100 -42.26% 9,703
Kandiyohi 7,814 33.56% 15,014 64.48% 455 1.95% -7,200 -30.92% 23,283
Kittson 911 36.44% 1,535 61.40% 54 2.16% -624 -24.96% 2,500
Koochiching 2,465 36.31% 4,204 61.92% 120 1.77% -1,739 -25.61% 6,789
Lac qui Parle 1,314 32.88% 2,600 65.07% 82 2.05% -1,286 -32.19% 3,996
Lake 3,534 50.82% 3,265 46.95% 155 2.23% 269 3.87% 6,954
Lake of the Woods 604 25.73% 1,710 72.86% 33 1.41% -1,106 -47.13% 2,347
Le Sueur 5,636 32.26% 11,503 65.85% 330 1.89% -5,867 -33.59% 17,469
Lincoln 972 30.05% 2,190 67.70% 73 2.26% -1,218 -37.65% 3,235
Lyon 4,284 32.98% 8,400 64.67% 306 2.36% -4,116 -31.69% 12,990
Mahnomen 975 44.66% 1,165 53.37% 43 1.97% -190 -8.71% 2,183
Marshall 1,177 23.39% 3,774 75.01% 80 1.59% -2,597 -51.62% 5,031
Martin 3,171 29.37% 7,442 68.93% 183 1.70% -4,271 -39.56% 10,796
McLeod 6,374 30.07% 14,394 67.90% 431 2.03% -8,020 -37.83% 21,199
Meeker 3,802 27.76% 9,645 70.43% 247 1.80% -5,843 -42.67% 13,694
Mille Lacs 4,374 28.80% 10,570 69.59% 246 1.62% -6,196 -40.79% 15,190
Morrison 4,306 21.20% 15,666 77.12% 341 1.68% -11,360 -55.92% 20,313
Mower 8,312 43.82% 10,297 54.28% 360 1.90% -1,985 -10.46% 18,969
Murray 1,329 27.87% 3,346 70.16% 94 1.97% -2,017 -42.29% 4,769
Nicollet 9,441 48.62% 9,540 49.13% 436 2.25% -99 -0.51% 19,417
Nobles 2,599 31.41% 5,541 66.96% 135 1.63% -2,942 -35.55% 8,275
Norman 1,233 37.43% 1,963 59.59% 98 2.98% -730 -22.16% 3,294
Olmsted 49,121 54.02% 39,467 43.41% 2,336 2.57% 9,654 10.61% 90,924
Otter Tail 11,752 31.99% 24,276 66.08% 708 1.93% -12,524 -34.09% 36,736
Pennington 2,439 33.04% 4,756 64.44% 186 2.52% -2,317 -31.40% 7,381
Pine 5,339 31.57% 11,274 66.67% 298 1.76% -5,935 -35.10% 16,911
Pipestone 1,215 25.12% 3,537 73.12% 85 1.76% -2,322 -48.00% 4,837
Polk 4,967 32.21% 10,162 65.91% 290 1.88% -5,195 -33.70% 15,419
Pope 2,398 33.22% 4,677 64.80% 143 1.98% -2,279 -31.58% 7,218
Ramsey 195,168 70.20% 75,284 27.08% 7,573 2.72% 119,884 43.12% 278,025
Red Lake 642 30.34% 1,425 67.34% 49 2.32% -783 -37.00% 2,116
Redwood 2,300 27.62% 5,895 70.80% 131 1.57% -3,595 -43.18% 8,326
Renville 2,280 28.29% 5,610 69.62% 168 2.08% -3,330 -41.33% 8,058
Rice 17,353 47.66% 18,264 50.16% 795 2.18% -911 -2.50% 36,412
Rock 1,585 29.50% 3,690 68.68% 98 1.82% -2,105 -39.18% 5,373
Roseau 2,093 24.63% 6,279 73.88% 127 1.49% -4,186 -49.25% 8,499
St. Louis 66,335 55.74% 50,065 42.07% 2,609 2.19% 16,270 13.67% 119,009
Scott 40,214 44.61% 47,837 53.07% 2,090 2.32% -7,623 -8.46% 90,141
Sherburne 18,329 31.62% 38,491 66.41% 1,140 1.97% -20,162 -34.79% 57,960
Sibley 2,351 27.54% 6,014 70.45% 172 2.01% -3,663 -42.91% 8,537
Stearns 30,829 35.59% 53,932 62.25% 1,871 2.16% -23,103 -26.66% 86,632
Steele 7,650 36.65% 12,742 61.05% 480 2.30% -5,092 -24.40% 20,872
Stevens 1,827 35.55% 3,213 62.52% 99 1.93% -1,386 -26.97% 5,139
Swift 1,618 32.01% 3,340 66.09% 96 1.90% -1,722 -34.08% 5,054
Todd 3,072 22.39% 10,392 75.75% 254 1.85% -7,320 -53.36% 13,718
Traverse 597 33.13% 1,165 64.65% 40 2.22% -568 -31.52% 1,802
Wabasha 4,721 34.95% 8,523 63.09% 265 1.96% -3,802 -28.14% 13,509
Wadena 1,898 23.59% 6,028 74.91% 121 1.50% -4,130 -51.32% 8,047
Waseca 3,402 32.75% 6,770 65.18% 215 2.07% -3,368 -32.43% 10,387
Washington 90,324 53.28% 75,271 44.40% 3,941 2.32% 15,053 8.88% 169,536
Watonwan 1,723 34.93% 3,087 62.58% 123 2.49% -1,364 -27.65% 4,933
Wilkin 986 29.41% 2,290 68.30% 77 2.30% -1,304 -38.89% 3,353
Winona 12,929 46.51% 14,288 51.40% 580 2.09% -1,359 -4.89% 27,797
Wright 30,883 34.30% 57,211 63.54% 1,947 2.16% -26,328 -29.24% 90,041
Yellow Medicine 1,548 28.61% 3,738 69.09% 124 2.29% -2,190 -40.48% 5,410
Totals 1,656,979 50.92% 1,519,032 46.68% 77,909 2.40% 137,947 4.24% 3,253,920
Results by precinct in Minneapolis[67]
  Harris
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90-100%

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Harris and Trump each won 4 of 8 congressional districts.[68]

District Harris Trump Other Representative
1st 43% 55% 2% Brad Finstad
2nd 52% 46% 2% Angie Craig
3rd 59% 38% 3% Dean Phillips (118th Congress)
Kelly Morrison (119th Congress)
4th 66% 31% 1% Betty McCollum
5th 79% 18% 3% Ilhan Omar
6th 39% 59% 2% Tom Emmer
7th 31% 67% 2% Michelle Fischbach
8th 42% 56% 2% Pete Stauber

Analysis

[edit]

An upper Midwestern state at the western end of the Great Lakes, Minnesota is seen as a moderately blue state. It has the longest active streak of voting for Democratic presidential nominees of any U.S. state; the last Republican to win Minnesota was Richard Nixon in 1972, against the backdrop of his 49-state landslide reelection; and it was also the only state to not back Ronald Reagan in 1984, with favorite son Walter Mondale victorious in his home state by a slim margin. However, presidential elections in Minnesota have consistently been competitive in the 21st century, with no Democrat carrying the state by double digits with the exception of Midwesterner Barack Obama in 2008 narrowly doing so by 10.2 percentage points. Minnesota was considered to be a Democratic-leaning state in this election; in the weeks leading up to Joe Biden's withdrawal from the presidential campaign, polls indicated a somewhat tight race in the state, but when Kamala Harris became the Democratic nominee, Minnesota polls shifted somewhat more in the Democrats' favor.

Republican Donald Trump narrowly flipped four Minnesota counties that Biden had won in 2020: Carlton, located in the unionized, formerly heavily Democratic and now competitive Iron Range and home to Cloquet; Blue Earth, anchored by Mankato, where Minnesota State University is located; Nicollet, anchored by North Mankato and St. Peter; and Winona, home to the town of the same name, the location of Winona State University; all of the aforementioned cities nevertheless remained in Harris' column.[69] Trump became the first Republican presidential nominee to win Carlton County since Herbert Hoover in 1928. With Harris narrowly winning Clay County, which houses Moorhead, this was the first presidential election since 1988 in which said county did not back the winning candidate; during that election, it favored Democrat Michael Dukakis over Republican George H. W. Bush.[70]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ a b c "Other" with 2%
  4. ^ "Other" with 5%
  5. ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
  6. ^ "Other" with 4%
  7. ^ "Other" with 1%
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  9. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  10. ^ "Other" with 6%
  11. ^ a b c "Other" with 9%
  12. ^ "Other" with 11%
  13. ^ "Another third party candidate" with 12%; "Would not vote" with 3%
  14. ^ "Another third party candidate" with 13%; "Would not vote" with 1%
  15. ^ a b "Would not vote" with 3%
  16. ^ a b "Another third party candidate" with 8%; "Would not vote" with 3%
  17. ^ Placeholder for Butch Ware, Stein's vice presidential nominee.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i Poll sponsored by KSTP-TV, WDIO-TV, & KAAL-TV
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by American Thinker
  3. ^ a b Poll sponsored by KARE11, Minnesota Public Radio & the Star Tribune
  4. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
  5. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

[edit]
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  2. ^ Kinery, Emma (April 25, 2023). "Biden launches 2024 reelection campaign, promising to fulfill economic policy vision". CNBC.
  3. ^ Levine, Sam; Gambino, Lauren (July 22, 2024). "Joe Biden withdraws from presidential race after weeks of pressure to quit". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  4. ^ "Harris says she'll 'earn' nomination as Biden steps aside". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
  5. ^ Gold, Michael; Nehamas, Nicholas (March 13, 2024). "Donald Trump and Joe Biden Clinch Their Party Nominations". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on March 13, 2024. Retrieved July 22, 2024.
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  10. ^ "2024 Presidential Primary Results". Office of the Minnesota Secretary of State. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
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  12. ^ "Certification of Results of 2024 Presidential Nomination Primary". Minnesota Secretary of State. March 12, 2024.
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  32. ^ "Election 2024: Harris +1 in New Hampshire, +3 in Minnesota". Rasmussen Reports. October 30, 2024.
  33. ^ "2024 presidential vote preferences by state". Cooperative Election Study. October 29, 2024.
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  37. ^ "Election 2024: Trump +1 in Nevada; Harris +3 in Minnesota, +6 in New Mexico". Rasmussen Reports. September 27, 2024.
  38. ^ Olson, Rochelle (September 23, 2024). "Minnesota Poll: Harris leads Trump in close presidential race". The Star Tribune.
  39. ^ a b Easley, Cameron; Yokley, Eli (September 9, 2024). "Tracking the 2024 Election: State by State". Morning Consult.
  40. ^ Radelat, Ana (September 13, 2024). "MinnPost poll shows Harris has narrow lead over Trump in Minnesota". MinnPost.
  41. ^ "Conventions and Primary Over, Campaign Season Underway, GOP Gains Back Some Ground in Minnesota, But Democrats and Democratic Remain On Top". SurveyUSA. August 30, 2024.
  42. ^ "Democrats' Pivot To Kamala Produces Immediate Results in Minnesota, Where VP Harris Now Leads Former President Trump By 10 Points; Klobuchar Widens Leads in Likely Senate Match-Ups, Democratic Candidates Increase Odds in MN House Races; JD Vance Not Seen As Great VP Choice". SurveyUSA. July 25, 2024.
  43. ^ a b c d Balara, Victoria (July 26, 2024). "Fox News Poll: Harris bests Trump by 6 points in Minnesota". Fox News.
  44. ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (12 – 14 October 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. October 16, 2024.
  45. ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (27 September – 2 October 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. October 7, 2024.
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  52. ^ a b Mumford, Camille (June 20, 2024). "June 2024 State Polls: Trump Maintains Edge over Biden". Emerson Polling.
  53. ^ "Trump Conviction Leads to Biden Gains in Minnesota, Where He Now Leads the Former President By 6; Klobuchar Up Double Digits in Senate Race". SurveyUSA. June 17, 2024.
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