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2024 United States presidential election in Indiana

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For related races, see 2024 United States presidential election.
2024 United States presidential election in Indiana
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Reporting
97%
as of 3:00 PM EST
 
Nominee Donald Trump Kamala Harris
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida California
Running mate JD Vance Tim Walz
Electoral vote 11 0
Popular vote 1,727,624 1,163,657
Percentage 58.7% 39.6%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

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The 2024 United States presidential election in Indiana took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Indiana voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Indiana has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

Republican Donald Trump won Indiana for the third time in a row this year, with a comfortable margin of 18.9%; he had swept the state in the previous two presidential election cycles with former Governor of Indiana Mike Pence on the ticket: by 19% in 2016 and by 16% in 2020. Prior to the election, all major news organizations considered Indiana a state Trump would win, or a red state.

Indiana has a reputation for being the most conservative state in the Great Lakes region, with the southern region of the state having cultural influence from the Upper South and Bible Belt. The only Democrat to carry Indiana at the presidential level after landslide winner Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 was Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois, who narrowly won the state in 2008. In addition, Indiana was decided by single digits in the elections of 1976, 1992, and 1996, all three of which consisted of the state being won by a Republican as a former Southern governor won under the Democratic banner.

Trump flipped the swing county of Tippecanoe, home to Lafayette and Purdue University, which had voted Republican in 2012 and 2016 but flipped Democratic in 2020. Trump also became the first presidential Republican since George H.W. Bush in 1988 to carry the Chicago exurban county of Porter by a double-digit margin and the first since Ronald Reagan in 1984 to achieve likewise with neighboring LaPorte County.

Despite Democrat Kamala Harris's loss, she slightly improved on Joe Biden's margins of defeat in a handful of suburban Indianapolis counties — most notably Hamilton, which went for Trump by less than 7% in both this election and 2020; and Boone, in which she became the first presidential Democrat to garner over 40% of the vote since LBJ, who lost the county by a mere 4.9% in 1964.[2] With Harris narrowly winning St. Joseph County, home to South Bend, this was the first election since 1976 in which said county did not vote for the winner of the nationwide popular vote.

Primary elections

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Democratic primary

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Main article: 2024 Indiana Democratic presidential primary

The 2024 Indiana Democratic presidential primary was held on May 7, 2024. 88 delegates, 79 pledged and 9 superdelegates, to the Democratic National Convention will be allocated to presidential candidates.[3]

In Indiana, candidates have to gather at least 500 signatures from each congressional district, for a total of 4,500 signatures, to make the primary ballot.[4] Incumbent President Joe Biden was the only candidate that met the requirements.[5] Uncommitted will not appear on the ballot and write-in votes are not allowed.[6]

With no opposition, President Biden won 100% of the primary vote.

Indiana Democratic primary, May 7, 2024[7]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Joe Biden 178,074 100.0% 79
Total: 178,074 100.0% 79 79

Republican primary

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Main article: 2024 Indiana Republican presidential primary

The Indiana Republican primary was held on May 7, 2024. Nikki Haley, who had already dropped out, and Donald Trump appeared on the ballot.

Indiana Republican primary, May 7, 2024[8]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 461,678 78.3% 58
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 128,170 21.7%
Total: 589,848 100.0% 58 58

General election

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Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[9] Solid R December 19, 2023
Inside Elections[10] Solid R April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] Safe R June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] Safe R December 14, 2023
CNalysis[13] Solid R December 30, 2023
CNN[14] Solid R January 14, 2024
The Economist[15] Safe R June 12, 2024
538[16] Solid R September 23, 2024
RCP[17] Solid R June 26, 2024
NBC News[18] Safe R October 6, 2024

Polling

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Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
ActiVote[19] October 3–28, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 58% 42% –
ActiVote[20] August 28 – September 30, 2024 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 57% 43% –
ARW Strategies[21][A] September 23–25, 2024 600 (LV) – 55% 39% 6%
Emerson College[22] September 12–13, 2024 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 57% 40% 3%[b]
58%[c] 41% 1%[b]
Lake Research Partners (D)[23][B] August 26 – September 2, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 42% 6%
Hypothetical polling with Donald Trump and Joe Biden

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[24][C] April 13–21, 2024 418 (LV) – 47% 43% 10%
Emerson College[25] March 2–5, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 55% 34% 11%
Emerson College[26] October 1–4, 2023 462 (RV) ± 4.5% 48% 29% 24%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[24][C] April 13–21, 2024 418 (LV) – 44% 41% 15%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[24][C] April 13–21, 2024 418 (LV) – 47% 38% 15%

Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Nikki
Haley
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[25] March 2–5, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 29% 26%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in Indiana[27]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican
1,732,508 58.7%
Democratic
1,166,954 39.6%
We the People
29,510 1%
Libertarian
20,521 1%
Write-in 1,285 0.28%
Total votes 2,950,778 100.00%

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ a b "Someone else" with 1%
  3. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Indy Politics
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by the campaign of Destiny Wells, 2024 Democratic nominee for attorney general
  3. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

See also

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References

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  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved February 7, 2023.
  2. ^ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". uselectionatlas.org. Retrieved November 20, 2024.
  3. ^ "Indiana Democratic Delegation 2024". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  4. ^ "Ballot access for presidential candidates". Ballotpedia. Retrieved January 20, 2024.
  5. ^ "Candidate List - Abbreviated" (PDF). Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  6. ^ "Indiana 2024 Delegate Selection Plan with DNC Edits" (PDF). Indiana Democratic Party. January 9, 2024. Retrieved March 1, 2024. No provision is provided under Indiana state law for primary voters to express an uncommitted preference on the ballot. Write-in presidential candidates are permitted.
  7. ^ "Indiana Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved May 7, 2024.
  8. ^ "Indiana Presidential Primary Election Results 2024". NBC News. Retrieved May 7, 2024.
  9. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  10. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  11. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  12. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  15. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  16. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved September 29, 2024.
  17. ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
  18. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  19. ^ Allis, Victor (October 29, 2024). "Trump Leads Comfortably in Indiana". ActiVote.
  20. ^ Allis, Victor (October 1, 2024). "Trump Leads Comfortably in Indiana". ActiVote.
  21. ^ Hakim-Shabazz, Abdul (September 29, 2024). "GOP Leads In Statewide Polling, But Braun's is the Smallest". Indy Politics.
  22. ^ "Indiana September 2024 Poll: Trump 57%, Harris 40%". Emerson College Polling. September 17, 2024.
  23. ^ Carden, Dan (September 12, 2024). "Poll finds Indiana attorney general, governor races are close". The Times of Northwest Indiana.
  24. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  25. ^ a b Mumford, Camille (March 7, 2024). "Indiana 2024 Poll: Sen. Braun Leads GOP Primary for Governor at 34%, 43% undecided". Emerson Polling.
  26. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 13, 2023). "Indiana 2024: Plurality of Voters Undecided in U.S. Senate Election to Replace Sen. Braun". Emerson Polling.
  27. ^ "Candidate List - Abbreviated" (PDF). INSOS. Retrieved September 23, 2024.
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