2021 California gubernatorial recall election

See also: 2021 United States gubernatorial elections

2021 California gubernatorial recall election

September 14, 2021
Turnout	58.45% (4.83 pp)
Vote on recall
Shall Gavin Newsom be recalled (removed) from the office of Governor?
Results
Choice Votes % Yes 4,894,473 38.12% No 7,944,092 61.88% Valid votes 12,838,565 99.58% Invalid or blank votes 54,013 0.42% Total votes 12,892,578 100.00% Registered voters/turnout 22,057,154 58.45%
No:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90% Yes:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Replacement candidates If Newsom is recalled, who should replace him as governor? Turnout 58.45%   Candidate Larry Elder Kevin Paffrath Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 3,563,867 706,778 Percentage 48.4% 9.6%   Candidate Kevin Faulconer Brandon Ross Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 590,346 392,029 Percentage 8.0% 5.3% Elder:      20–30%      30–40%      40–50%      50–60%      60–70% Paffrath:      20–30%

The 2021 California gubernatorial recall election was a special recall election that began in August 2021 and concluded on September 14, 2021, when California voters chose not to recall incumbent Democratic governor Gavin Newsom, elected for the term January 2019 to January 2023.

Had the recall been successful, the replacement candidate with the most votes on the second part of the ballot would have assumed the office. The election followed the same format used in the November 2020 general election: in August, county election offices sent an official ballot to the mailing address of every registered voter, giving them the option to vote by mail on or before election day, or, when polling places opened statewide, to vote in-person. The recall petition was filed in February 2020 and signatures were collected from June 2020 to March 2021, with the signature drive gaining critical momentum in late 2020 regarding Newsom's personal behavior and leadership during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Voters' ability to recall an elected official in California is the result of Progressive Era democratic reforms intended to reduce corruption, enacted alongside the introduction of the ballot initiative and women's suffrage in 1911. Following a petition drive collecting signatures amounting to at least 12 percent of voters in the previous election for the political office in question, a special election is held. The election was the fourth gubernatorial recall election in American history and the second in state history after the 2003 recall election, which resulted in the successful recall of Governor Gray Davis, who was replaced with Arnold Schwarzenegger.

The ballot asked voters two separate questions: whether to recall Newsom as governor, and which candidate should replace Newsom as governor if he were recalled. All voters could answer the second question regardless of their vote (if any) on the first. Allies of Newsom were successful in dissuading any high-profile Democrats from entering the field of candidates seeking to replace Newsom if he was recalled. His campaign encouraged voters to vote "no" on the first question (whether to recall Newsom) while abstaining from voting on the second question (who should replace Newsom if he were recalled). Largely as consequence of this, while 12,838,565 voters answered the first question, only 7,361,568 voters answered the second.

Due to the wide margin of the results, most major news outlets projected the race for Newsom within an hour of polls closing; later that night, Larry Elder, the frontrunner replacement candidate, conceded defeat. Official certification of the results occurred on October 22, 2021.

Background

Following their ascension into power in 1911, California's progressive Republican reformers introduced direct democracy with the recall (Proposition 8) and the initiative and referendum (Proposition 7) processes, alongside other sweeping democratic reforms like women's suffrage (Proposition 4), to weaken the corrupting power of private interests over the state's government (especially that of the enormously influential Southern Pacific Railroad), and restore, according to newly elected governor Hiram Johnson, "the people's rule".

Prior to this election, the only other gubernatorial recall attempt in California to qualify for the ballot happened in 2003, which resulted in Gray Davis being replaced by Arnold Schwarzenegger. This election was the result of one of 179 attempts to recall a state-level elected official in California since voters gained the right to recall in 1911, one of 55 attempts to recall a governor, and one of six such efforts to remove Newsom. Every California governor since 1960 has experienced some form of a recall attempt. Of the ten prior recall attempts on state-level elected officials in California which led to special recall elections, six ultimately resulted in their removal from office by voters. The recall election was the fourth gubernatorial recall election ever held in the United States; the other three were in North Dakota in 1921, California in 2003, and Wisconsin in 2012.

Newsom recall petition (June 2020–March 2021)

Newsom in 2019

During Newsom's tenure as governor, a total of seven recall petitions have been launched against him. On February 20, 2020, the petition which led to the 2021 recall election was served against Newsom. It stated, "People in this state suffer the highest taxes in the nation, the highest homelessness rates, and the lowest quality of life as a result." The timing of the recall attempt coincided with the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. The basis for previous recall attempts included the state's "Universal Healthcare and laws regarding illegal aliens" and "homelessness".

On June 10, 2020, then-Secretary of State Alex Padilla approved petitioners' petitions for circulation. The recall petition focused on a variety of grievances, on issues such as sanctuary policies, homelessness, high taxes, and water rationing. Newsom's official response to the petition touted his support for funding education, health care, and infrastructure, noted the State's fiscal health, and warned that the recall campaign was a partisan attack that would result in a costly election.

The recall campaign hired a political consulting firm in late June 2020, and the initial plan was to pay circulators to collect signatures. To ensure a successful validation, the recall campaign sought to gather 2 million signatures. Given the difficulties in obtaining signatures during the pandemic, however, the per-signature cost rose dramatically, and petitioners opted to proceed with a team of approximately 5,000 volunteer circulators instead. The first proponent of the recall, Orrin Heatlie, played a grassroots role in the previous attempt led by aspiring Tea Party politician Erin Cruz. Heatlie, a former county sheriff's sergeant, was motivated by his disapproval of a video in which Newsom advised immigrants of their right not to be subject to warrantless searches.

The petition was initially given a signature deadline of November 17, 2020, but was extended to March 17, 2021, by Sacramento County Superior Court Judge James P. Arguelles due to the pandemic. Arguelles ruled that recall proponents could have a longer time window to collect signatures than they normally would have under non-pandemic circumstances.

Party at The French Laundry

The French Laundry

Newsom was widely criticized in November 2020 for his attendance at a birthday party with more than three households at The French Laundry restaurant in Yountville in the Napa Valley, despite guidelines issued by his administration ahead of an expected holiday COVID-19 surge, which limited private gatherings to at most three households. Also in attendance were multiple lobbyists, including both the head lobbyist and the CEO of the California Medical Association. Newsom and his office initially defended the outing while saying it was the first time he and his wife dined with others in public since the COVID-19 pandemic began, that public dining recommendations were separate from state guidelines for private gatherings, and that the party was held outdoors.

Newsom (far left), maskless and with a large crowd, at The French Laundry

The day after Newsom claimed the party had been held outdoors, photographs showing an enclosed and maskless gathering were published and widely shared. Neighboring diners said Newsom's party was so loud, restaurant staff closed off their garage-like dining space with sliding glass doors, essentially making an indoor dining space. Napa County was in the "orange tier" of pandemic severity at the time, which permitted some indoor dining. Newsom later apologized for attending the celebration. The incident severely damaged Newsom's image and credibility amid the public health crisis.

This incident and voter anger over lockdowns, job losses, and school and business closures were widely credited for the recall petition's surge in support. Other reasons included a $31 billion fraud scandal at the state unemployment agency and pre-pandemic grievances over homelessness and high taxes. By August 2020, the petitioners had submitted 55,000 valid signatures, and from August 2020 through October 2020, a total of 890 new valid signatures were submitted. Coincidentally, both the French Laundry party and the extension of the signature collection deadline happened on November 6, 2020 and between November 5, 2020, and December 7, 2020, over 442,000 new signatures were submitted and verified; 1,664,010 valid signatures, representing roughly 111 percent of the 1,495,709 minimum required signatures and 98 percent of the 1,719,900 final certified signature count, would be submitted from November 2020 to the March 2021 deadline.

Reactions

Though the state's Republican Party establishment was not involved with the launch of the recall petition, the growing recall effort eventually received the attention and support of statewide and nationwide Republicans, with the Republican Governors Association commissioning a poll involving prospective candidates in February 2021. In January 2021, Newsom refused to acknowledge the developing recall movement when questioned by reporters. In January 2021, Rusty Hicks, the chairman of the California Democratic Party, likened it to the storming of the U.S. Capitol, calling it the "California coup". The comparison drew bipartisan criticism, with Newsom's former deputy chief of staff, Yashar Ali, saying it was "absolutely insane to frame a recall where the voters go to the polls a coup".

Certification

California Secretary of State Shirley Weber, who officially certified the recall petition on July 1, 2021.

The recall campaign submitted 2,117,730 signatures by the March 2021 deadline. On April 26, 2021, the office of Secretary of State Shirley Weber announced that the recall effort had gained enough signatures to pass the 1,495,709 threshold and qualify for the ballot, pending official certification after a period of 30 days where voters could retract their signatures and where state officials tallied the costs to conduct the election (up to 60 days). The count yielded 1,719,943 valid signatures, which was roughly 13.8 percent of votes cast in 2018, exceeding the 12 percent threshold required to trigger the recall election. On June 23, 2021, the secretary of state announced that only 43 recall signatories withdrew their signatures statewide prior to the withdrawal deadline, resulting in a final count of 1,719,900 signatures (224,191 more than the required total), and all but ensuring a special election to recall Newsom from the governor's office.

After official certification, Lieutenant Governor Eleni Kounalakis was legally required to call the election within 60 to 80 days (per recent changes in recall election procedures signed by Governor Newsom, which eliminated the election cost review requirements if sufficient funding had been appropriated for the election). The signature drive was officially certified on July 1, 2021 and on the same day, Kounalakis called the election for September 14, 2021 (76 days later and the last Tuesday within the 60 to 80 day time period available to Kounalakis).

Recall campaigning (March 2021–September 2021)

Newsom's opponents said he was being dishonest when in a March 16, 2021, interview with Jake Tapper of CNN, he said, "I've been living through Zoom school and all of the challenge related to it," since his children had been receiving in-person instruction at their private school since October 2020, unlike schoolchildren in many densely-populated and urban public school districts in California. Newsom made the comments while conducting a public outreach effort to address the all-but-certain recall. The COVID-19 pandemic in California led to widespread school closures, the emergence of distance learning, and student mental health and academic challenges, and by the summer of 2021, education became a prominent issue in the recall campaign. Republican candidates said the public K-12 school system failed to adequately serve students after teachers unions' demands led to extended shutdowns, and proposed a statewide voucher system, whereby parents could use their share of per-pupil state funding on the public, charter, or private school of their choice.

Ahead of the September recall election, President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned for Newsom. At a rally in Long Beach on the eve of the election, Biden said, "Folks, send a message to the nation: Courage matters, leadership matters, science matters. Vote to keep Gavin Newsom." Both Biden and Newsom likened the frontrunner candidate Larry Elder to Trump, with Newsom warning, "We may have defeated Donald Trump, but we have not defeated Trumpism. Trumpism is still on the ballot in California."

Newsom's campaign ran television ads in September 2021 that called his Republican opponents' positions "anti-vax" and called the outcome of the recall vote "a matter of life and death. All four major Republican candidates (Elder, Faulconer, Kiley, and Cox) opposed vaccine mandates, although none contended that the vaccines were dangerous and all said that they had been vaccinated against the virus. Among the Republican candidates, Faulconer was the strongest advocate of COVID-19 vaccination; Cox had an "evolving position" but eventually recommended that everyone get vaccinated against COVID-19, and Elder and Kiley said that individuals should make up their own minds. Elder pledged, if elected, to repeal all face-covering and COVID-19 testing requirements for state workers.

Newsom under recall

Although the recall petition was introduced in February 2020, before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, Newsom's response faced scrutiny by recall supporters and the news media. Many in favor of recalling Newsom cited issues unrelated to the pandemic as reasons for their support.

Newsom presided over an unexpected surplus in the state's 2021 finances, attributable to the recovery in the stock market, the state's progressive tax code, and $26 billion in federal aid, and announced a $100 billion post-pandemic spending proposal in May 2021 which would expand the eligibility for stimulus checks issued by the state to higher-wage earners with an additional payment to those with children, provide rental and utility assistance, and give funds to small businesses. While Newsom was required to return some of the surplus to taxpayers due to the Gann limit, which requires surplus funds to "be returned by a revision of tax rates or fee schedules", the Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association said the law was likely being misapplied with the issuance of rebate checks to targeted constituencies rather than with the reduction of tax rates for all taxpayers. A report from the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst's Office, published shortly after the proposal was revealed, said that when considering spending that must go towards public schools, pay off debt, or be placed in the state's main reserve account, the surplus was actually $38 billion, not $75 billion as claimed by Newsom, that the proposal was being rushed since more time was needed to determine which solutions would be effective, and that the proposal was "shortsighted and inadvisable" since it requested $12 billion from the state's existing reserves in spite of the surplus. Newsom's Democratic predecessor Jerry Brown said the spending plans were "not sustainable" and said, "I would predict, certainly within two years, we're going to see fiscal stress." Proponents of Newsom's proposal said the high amount of spending was "historic" and would help the economy recover from the pandemic, while opponents said Newsom's proposal was crafted in response to the imminent recall election. According to state officials, a stimulus payment would be issued to eligible individuals starting in September 2021. The first round of 600,000 stimulus checks was directly deposited into bank accounts on August 27, 2021, with payments to other recipients scheduled to be disbursed every two weeks.

In May 2021, Kaiser Health News reported that throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, Newsom was "routinely outsourcing life-or-death public health duties to his allies in the private sector" with lucrative no-bid government contracts. The report said the "vast majority" of awardees were Newsom supporters and donors who had collectively donated $113 million to his political campaigns (including to his campaign to fight the recall), charitable causes, or policy initiatives, since his entry into state-level politics in 2010.

In June 2021, The Sacramento Bee reported that the non-profit organization founded by Newsom's wife, Jennifer Siebel Newsom, had received over $800,000 in donations from companies that lobbied or did business with California state government, and paid her over $2.3 million since 2011 for leading the organization and producing documentary films through her production company, Girl's Club Entertainment. When questioned about his wife's non-profit, Newsom denied that there was any conflict of interest with the arrangement. In response to the report, several recall challengers called for a ban on donations to non-profit organizations of elected officials' family members from companies engaged in business with the state.

Partisanship

The recall effort was not launched by state Republican Party apparatus, but by activists who had unsuccessfully attempted to recall Newsom before; the activists said the party establishment did not get involved in a substantial way until the recall effort had almost triggered the election.

Newsom did not acknowledge the recall election until its occurrence became all but certain, calling the effort "partisan, Republican". He recruited nationwide Democrats to help fundraise against it. State Democratic leaders warned members of their party against running in the recall election to avoid a potential split electorate, which some attribute to the 2003 recall of Governor Gray Davis, where Democratic lieutenant governor Cruz Bustamante was defeated in his candidacy by Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger. A May 2021 UC Berkeley Institute of Government Studies poll sponsored by the Los Angeles Times found that Democratic voters overwhelmingly preferred having a prominent Democratic replacement candidate on the ballot in case the recall was successful, at odds with attempts by party leadership to prevent such a scenario.

Former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger disputed the supposed partisan motives of the recall, comparing the 2021 effort to the successful 2003 recall and saying,

"It's pretty much the same atmosphere today as it was then. There was dissatisfaction, to the highest level. And it's the same with the momentum. Something that sets it off to a higher level, kind of the straw that breaks the camel's back ... like an explosion."

Democratic strategist Katie Merrill said that the chance for a successful recall in 2021 was low:

"Politically, we're a completely different state than we were in 2003. If you look at the statewide races, the Republican Party has effectively become a third party in California."

Newsom sought to connect the backers of the recall effort to "the RNC, anti-mask and anti-vax extremists, and pro-Trump forces", while recall proponents said that the recall was only about Newsom and his performance as governor, and claimed that around one-third of recall petition signatories were registered Democrats or independents. As of April 30, 2021, nearly a year after the recall campaign was approved for petition circulation by the secretary of state, Trump had yet to personally comment on the recall effort. In September 2021, Trump commented on the recall election, claiming without evidence that it was "probably rigged".

Despite the CDC's mid-May guidance that it was not necessary for persons fully vaccinated against COVID-19 to wear masks in most indoor settings, Newsom's administration decided that California would continue its indoor mask mandate for another month, until June 15, 2021. Reception to the CDC's new guidance among public health experts had been mixed, with some favoring quick implementation and others favoring a delay, including Bob Wachter, chair of the UCSF Department of Medicine, who called the CDC's new guidance "premature". The delayed implementation was criticized by UCSF scientist and COVID-19 expert Dr. Monica Gandhi who said it had no scientific rationale, while potentially causing harm by suggesting there is "still a danger when there isn't one". Isaac Hale, a lecturer of political science at UC Davis, said partisan politics concerning the recall may have been a factor in the decision:

"One of [the] top political priorities Newsom has is keeping the Democratic base together, which is why they're really focused on arguing the recall is a partisan Republican endeavor. The biggest thing that could damage that narrative is if a prominent Democrat or progressive emerged as a candidate in the recall, like Cruz Bustamante did in 2003. The key to Newsom staying in power is keeping the Democratic base happy, consolidated and making sure the California Democratic Party is the party of Gavin Newsom, and Gavin Newsom only. It's smart politics since mask mandates are popular among California Democrats."

Jack Citrin, a political science professor at UC Berkeley, said changing the electoral calendar threatened to reinforce the public's cynicism about politicians using any means available to stay in power, and that they were "trying to create a situation that is most favorable for the partisan outcome that they favor". The changes were heavily criticized by Newsom's Republican opponents.

In August, recall proponents filed suit challenging language proposed by Newsom for the voter information handbook, alleging it falsely or misleading characterized the recall as a "power grab" by "Republicans and Trump supporters". On August 5, 2021, Sacramento County Superior Court Judge Laurie M. Earl ruled against the suit and allowed inclusion of the disputed language, saying, "There is nothing false or misleading about describing the recall effort's leaders as Trump supporters." Judge Earl wrote that while it may have been an exaggeration to describe the election as a "Republican recall", the rhetoric was "common to political debate" and "permissible".

On July 24, 2021, the California Republican Party's steering committee voted to allow the party to endorse a candidate in the recall election, if the candidate received at least 60 percent of delegate votes in an upcoming August 7 meeting. Some Republicans opposed the move out of concern that endorsing a single candidate would reduce Republican voter turnout. On August 7, the party voted to cancel the endorsement vote and issue no endorsement; prior to the cancellation of the endorsement vote, Republican delegates were set to choose an endorsee from the four candidates who each had received the support of at least 200 delegates, which were Larry Elder, Kevin Faulconer, Kevin Kiley, and Doug Ose.

With political allies having successfully dissuaded prospective high-level Democrats from joining the race, Newsom's campaign urged supporters to skip the second question on the recall ballot. The directive was criticized by nonpartisan political observers, who said that it was misleading and could cause voter confusion.

Recall election (September 2021)

Election administration

After some blueprints of the Dominion Voting Systems voting machines were leaked, a group of eight cybersecurity experts called, in a letter to Secretary of State Shirley Weber, for rigorous auditing of the recall election with a risk-limiting audit to mitigate any cyberattack risk. The experts wrote that they had no evidence of a hacking threat, and did not cast any blame on Dominion, but said that the state and counties should take steps to ensure that "the release of the Dominion software into the wild" did not increase election security risks. The California Secretary of State's office said the 40 counties in California using Dominion election management system use a different version of the software that meets state requirements, and noted that California election systems have layered security protections, including routine vulnerability testing, pre-election testing, access controls, and physical security. California also uses paper ballots with a voter-verified paper audit trail, another security measure.

Larry Elder's unsubstantiated fraud claim prior to election day

The day before the end of voting, candidate Larry Elder claimed on his campaign website that fraud had already been detected and linked to a petition for citizens to sign "demanding a special session of the California legislature to investigate and ameliorate the twisted results" of the election, though no vote totals had yet been reported. Elder would concede defeat on election day. His claim that cast doubt on the legitimacy of the election result was accompanied by similar unsubstantiated claims from former president Donald Trump and several right-wing media figures.

California's recall process

See also: 1911 California Proposition 8

An image of a ballot from Los Angeles County. The listed order of the replacement candidates was determined by a randomization of the alphabet. The starting point, however, gets shifted for each of the state's 80 Assembly Districts (hence, all 46 candidates appear at the top of the ballot in at least one assembly district, with 34 candidates being listed first in two assembly districts).

As of 2021, California is one of 19 states to allow recall elections. Under state law, any elected official may be subjected to a recall. To trigger a recall election of a statewide elected official, proponents must gather a certain number of signatures from registered voters within a certain time period. The number must equal at least 12 percent of the votes cast in the previous election for that office. Based on the previous gubernatorial election, the 2021 recall petition required 1,495,709 signatures. When the secretary of state confirms that a recall petition meets the required number of signatures, a recall election must be scheduled within 60 to 80 days. If the petition qualifies fewer than 180 days prior to the next regularly scheduled election, then the recall becomes part of that regularly scheduled election. In the case of a recall against the governor, the responsibility for scheduling the recall election falls on the lieutenant governor, which for 2021 was Eleni Kounalakis.

A recall ballot in California consists of two parts: whether the incumbent should be recalled, and a selection of replacement candidates in the event they are recalled. If a simple majority of those who cast ballots favors removing the incumbent by selecting "YES" on the first question, then the replacement candidate who receives the most votes (a type of plurality voting) finishes out the incumbent's term in office. A voter is allowed a single unranked vote when choosing a preferred replacement candidate, irrespective of their response to the first question. If the recall had been successful, the new governor would have taken office 38 days after the election and served the remainder of the term through January 2, 2023. Following legislation, all registered voters would be mailed a ballot for any elections held in 2021, including the recall election (subsequent legislation signed by Governor Newsom in September 2021 would mandate the same universal mail-in format for all future state and local elections).

Changes to state recall election laws

Though California's recall process remains fundamentally unchanged since its introduction in 1911, beginning in 2017 and up to the 2021 gubernatorial recall, California's Democratic-led government enacted legislation to change how recall elections are conducted. Several lawmakers and academics also proposed more substantial changes during the 2021 recall campaign that would later fail in the legislature and the courts; similar rule changes were proposed during California's 2003 recall election campaign that targeted Democrat Gray Davis. In addition, a new election law was applied to the 2021 recall election, though its application would later be ruled invalid in court.

Recall election timeline (SB 117 and SB 152)

In 2017, ahead of the successful recall of State Senator Josh Newman (D-Fullerton), Democratic legislators changed the law concerning recall elections with Senate Bill 117 to give voters 30 business days to withdraw their names from the recall petition. The 2017 law change also added a 30-day period for the state Department of Finance to conduct a cost estimate and gave the Joint Legislative Budget Committee 30 days to review the estimate.

On June 28, 2021, Newsom signed Senate Bill 152 into law, which allowed for his recall election to be held as early as August 2021 by allowing for a shorter recall timeline, which had been lengthened prior to the recall of Senator Newman. The changes allowed the lieutenant governor to set a date for the recall without waiting for the Joint Legislative Budget Committee to review the cost estimate "so long as the Legislature has appropriated the funds it determines 'reasonably necessary' to conduct the recall election". With the same law change, the legislature appropriated $250 million to administer the recall election.

Election cost

While Newsom's pre-pandemic response to the recall effort in early 2020 warned that a special recall election would cost $81 million, county officials estimated in June 2021 that a statewide recall election, which at the time was expected to be held in the fall of 2021, would cost taxpayers $215 million. This higher estimate had presumed higher paper costs due to California's requirements for universal mail-in ballots instituted during the COVID-19 pandemic, which covered all elections held in 2020 and 2021, as well as a lengthy recall calendar featuring the rule changes enacted in 2017, ahead of Senator Newman's recall.

With the shortened timeline from SB 152 now ensuring a summertime election, California's county election clerks nonetheless urged Lieutenant Governor Kounalakis to schedule the election as late as possible, citing an inability to guarantee a successful August election, possible voter confusion, and the potential for costs far beyond the original estimate. A summertime election, held in late August or early September, could have helped Newsom defeat the recall by avoiding political fallout over fires, virus variants, or school reopenings, which could coincide with what had been anticipated to be a late October or early November recall election; this strategic advantage was the rationale for public advocacy for an earlier election by Democratic state senator Steve Glazer. On July 1, the Department of Finance released an estimate of the cost of the September 14, 2021 election at $276 million, an increase of $61 million from the prior $215 million estimated by county election offices.

Newsom's campaign and Democratic legislative leaders of both state houses had criticized the recall election as a waste of taxpayer money, while recall proponents said, "You can't put a price on democracy," and that some costs could have been avoided if officials allowed for a "traditional" election without universal mail-in ballots. While the projected $276 million cost of the recall was close to the $292 million spent on the 2020 general election in California, which was the first to feature universal mail-in ballots, the cost per voter was significantly higher than in the 2018 midterm elections.

Secretary of State Weber said in an interview with KABC-TV that the recall election's total cost by election day had surpassed $276 million and was on track to eventually exceed $300 million. On February 3, 2022, election officials released a final tally of the costs for the recall election, at a little over $200.2 million.

Incumbent's party preference (SB 151)

In 2019, Newsom signed Senate Bill 151 into law, which gave recall targets the right to state their party preference on the recall ballot. Newsom was unable to take advantage of the new law after his campaign missed a February 2020 deadline (when the recall petition was filed) to state his party preference. In June and July 2021, Newsom's campaign sued Secretary of State Shirley Weber (whom he appointed earlier in 2021) over the issue, but lost the case. Weber sided with him, telling the judge that voters would benefit from knowing Newsom's political party preference. The lawyers arguing the case in opposition to Newsom before Judge James P. Arguelles (who had also approved the recall signature deadline extension) represented replacement candidate Caitlyn Jenner and proponents of the recall.

Misapplication of tax return disclosure law (SB 27)

Main article: Senate Bill 27 (2019)

A new requirement for gubernatorial candidates to disclose their most recent tax returns was passed into law in 2019, when Governor Newsom signed Senate Bill 27. Although the language of the law says that gubernatorial candidates must publicize the prior five years of their tax returns in order for their names to appear on a "primary ballot", the secretary of state applied the law to the recall election. The law has been cited as a potential reason for the major reduction in recall replacement candidates relative to the number of candidates in the 2003 gubernatorial recall.

The tax return disclosure requirement did not apply to Newsom, who was not considered a "candidate" in the recall. Newsom's campaign nonetheless submitted his tax documents to Secretary of State Shirley Weber, who refused to publish them on the grounds that the governor was not required to disclose them. Newsom's campaign did not respond to a reporter's July 19, 2021, request for his recent tax returns.

On July 21, 2021, Sacramento County Superior Court Judge Laurie Earl invalidated all tax return disclosure requirements for the 2021 recall election. The ruling was on a suit filed by prospective recall challenger Larry Elder against Secretary of State Weber, alleging she overstepped her authority by disqualifying him from his candidacy due to a purported tax return filing error. The judge ruled that Weber had improperly disqualified Elder, who had "substantially complied" with the requirements and that the special recall election was not a primary election and therefore Senate Bill 27 did not even apply. By then, 42 candidates' tax returns had already been made public by the secretary of state's office. Weber's office said it would comply with the ruling and did not appeal.

Constitutional legal challenge

In August 2021, an essay by UC Berkeley School of Law Dean Erwin Chemerinsky and UC Berkeley Professor of Law and Economics Aaron Edlin appeared in The New York Times claiming California's recall process violates the Constitution of the United States, since more people could vote to retain Newsom than for any particular candidate while still ousting him, thus potentially violating "one person, one vote" legal precedent (conversely, if a majority of voters favored retaining Newsom, but an even greater number of voters favored a particular replacement candidate, Newsom would nonetheless prevail). Charles C. W. Cooke, writing in The National Review in the same month, criticized the rationale and timing of the essay's publication and said Chemerinsky had selectively taken issue with California's recall, in which a Democrat was targeted, by not bringing up the pivotal 2020–21 United States Senate election in Georgia, which would also be invalid by his logic. Many experts have said the current recall process would probably survive legal challenges.

On August 13, 2021, two California voters filed a federal lawsuit against California's recall process, with formerly disbarred attorney Stephen Yagman and Joseph Reichmann as counsel, alleging violation of the U.S. Constitution's Equal Protection Clause. California Attorney General Rob Bonta said on August 16, 2021, that he was monitoring the lawsuit and legal debate; by then, millions of ballots had already been sent out. On August 27, 2021, United States District Court for the Central District of California Judge Michael W. Fitzgerald, an Obama appointee, dismissed the lawsuit. Judge Fitzgerald, in his ruling, said of the plaintiffs' grievances: "Such disgruntlement raises no federal constitutional issues and certainly does not give the federal judiciary the right to halt the mammoth undertaking of this gubernatorial recall election." The office of Secretary of State Shirley Weber (the defendant in the case) said they would not appeal the ruling.

Proposed changes to state recall election law

In April 2021, two bills that could make future recalls less likely were introduced in the California Senate: the first, a bill originally authored by Senator Ben Allen (D-Redondo Beach) two years prior, in response to the recall of Senator Josh Newman, would allow a targeted incumbent to be a candidate on the recall ballot; the second, authored by Senator Josh Newman (who by 2020 had reclaimed his lost state senate seat) would have allowed targets of recall campaigns to access the lists of recall petition signers and try to persuade them to remove their signatures. Neither bill would have impacted the 2021 recall election.

Newman's proposed law (Senate Bill 663) cleared the State Senate's Elections Committee on April 12, but he pulled the bill before it headed to the Judiciary Committee after it received fierce opposition from proponents of the 2021 recall over privacy and voter intimidation concerns. As of July 2021, Senator Allen's bill (Senate Constitutional Amendment 3) was on hold in the legislative "suspense file".

In September 2021, while voting in the recall election was underway, Democratic State Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon said discussions were being held to alter California's recall process; support and opposition to changes in the recall process in California have fallen along partisan lines. Any major changes to the recall process must be approved by California's voters via an amendment to the Constitution of California.

Fundraising

California's recall process requires that campaigns supporting challengers adhere to the usual campaign finance limits for political candidates, while there is no dollar limit for a donor's contribution to the campaign of the defending incumbent, nor for donations to groups advocating narrowly for the recall of the incumbent while not supporting any specific challenger. For the 2021 recall election, the maximum amount that a donor could have given to a candidate (other than Newsom) was $32,400.

By June 2021, the three biggest donors to Newsom's campaign against the recall were the California Association of Realtors, the California Democratic Party, and Reed Hastings. Prominent donors against the recall also included Steven Spielberg, George Soros, Jeffrey Katzenberg, Peter Chernin, J.J. Abrams and Katie McGrath, Laurene Powell Jobs, and Marissa Mayer. By June 3, 2021, labor unions across the state donated $2 million to Newsom's campaign against the recall and union leaders, while saying their side was already favored by voters, promised a get-out-the-vote drive to "make sure we secure those votes and talk to our members to ensure that base" through a door-to-door canvassing effort.

While organizers of the recall campaign said the effort was driven by grassroots supporters angry over pandemic restrictions and Newsom's attendance at the French Laundry dinner that defied his own guidelines, over half of the $4 million raised by recall proponents by March 2021 originated from two dozen Republican groups, along with wealthy companies and individuals, including Douglas Leone, David O. Sacks and Chamath Palihapitiya. Recall proponents said there was greater voter energy in favor of the recall and that despite having a small budget, an "unparalleled" volunteer base collected more than enough signatures for the "purposeful and organic" recall effort.

By May 26, 2021, $11.1 million and $4.6 million went to the pro-Newsom and pro-recall sides, respectively, with most funding for both sides originating from the same wealthy enclaves around the state. On August 4, 2021, the Los Angeles Times published updated campaign finance data for the upcoming recall election: Newsom's campaign was by far in the lead with $51 million raised, while $5.8 million had been raised by pro-recall committees unaffiliated with a candidate (most of the $5.8 million raised had already been spent during the signature gathering phase). Among challengers who had raised over a million dollars, John Cox reported the most, with $7.6 million (largely self-funded), followed by Faulconer, who reported $3.4 million (raised over a six-month period), and Elder, who reported over $1 million (raised over a three-week period).

After surviving the recall election, Newsom would decide the fate of numerous bills passed in the legislature and determine policy that could affect donors to his anti-recall campaign, which included the film and tech industries, real estate and labor union interests, and Native American tribes, who had collectively donated tens of millions of dollars to fight the recall (being unencumbered by donation limits), in what was described as a unique opportunity to attempt to buy influence in California's government.

Campaign

Qualified replacement candidates

To have been listed on the ballot as a replacement candidate, a candidate must have been a United States citizen and registered to vote in California, submitted signatures from 65 registered voters and paid a $4,194.94 filing fee (which could be waived with the submission of 7,000 signatures of registered voters). Candidates who had been convicted of a felony involving bribery or embezzlement of public money were not allowed to run.

The deadline for filing was July 16, 2021. Forty-six candidates qualified to appear on the recall ballot, consisting of 24 Republicans, nine Democrats, two Greens, one Libertarian, and ten no party preference. Four of the 46 candidates qualified after a Sacramento County judge invalidated application of SB 27 on recall elections and ordered California's Secretary of State to add candidates who did not meet requirements for tax return disclosure. The list of candidates on the ballot was certified on July 21, 2021. Additionally, seven write-in candidates were certified by the secretary of state on September 3. Of the write-in candidates, their party affiliation consisted of two Democrats, one Republican, one American Independent, and three no party preference. Lieutenant Governor of California Eleni Kounalakis declined to run.

Top candidates

Candidates who received at least 1% of the vote

Candidate	Party	Prior positions	Residence
Holly L. Baade	Democratic	Spiritual teacher and coach	Fairfax
John H. Cox	Republican	Businessman Perennial candidate 2018 Republican gubernatorial nominee	Rancho Santa Fe
Larry Elder	Republican	Conservative talk show host and author	Los Angeles
Kevin Faulconer	Republican	Former mayor of San Diego (2014–2020)	San Diego
Caitlyn Jenner	Republican	Reality show personality Former Olympic athlete Transgender rights activist	Malibu
Kevin Kiley	Republican	Assemblyman for California's 6th State Assembly district (2016–2022)	Rocklin
Patrick Kilpatrick	Democratic	Actor Screenwriter Producer	Los Angeles
Jacqueline McGowan	Democratic	Cannabis advocate and business owner	Napa
Kevin Paffrath	Democratic	YouTuber Real estate broker Landlord	Ventura
Armando Perez- Serrato	Democratic	Business owner	Orange
Brandon Ross	Democratic	Doctor and lawyer	San Diego
Joel A. Ventresca	Democratic	Former executive committee member of the Service Employees International Union Retired airport analyst Perennial candidate	San Francisco
Daniel Watts	Democratic	Free speech lawyer Green candidate in the 2003 California gubernatorial recall election	Vista

Debates

The Richard Nixon Foundation announced plans for two debates during the month of August 2021: the first on August 4, and the second on August 22. The first debate was a 90-minute televised event held at the Nixon Presidential Library in Yorba Linda, California. Six Republican candidates (Faulconer, Elder, Cox, Jenner, Kiley, and Ose) were invited to participate, along with Newsom. The Nixon Foundation announced that all the Republican candidates, with the exception of Jenner, had accepted the invitation, and Gov. Newsom had not responded. A day after the debate was announced with Elder as a participant, the Elder campaign issued a statement that he would not attend the debate.

During the August 17 debate in Sacramento, Cox was served with a subpoena while on stage, and on camera. The subpoena by a San Diego County court was for failure to pay a debt of about $100,000 from his 2018 gubernatorial campaign. Ose had initially accepted the invitation to appear at the same debate, but dropped out of the race the day of the debate, and therefore did not attend. Elder announced that he would not attend the debate, nor any other debate that Newsom was not attending.

During the August 25 debate in Sacramento, Kevin Paffrath called on the other three candidates onstage (Faulconer, Cox, and Kiley) to drop out of the race and endorse him, stating he feared a lame-duck governor would get nothing done.

2021 California's gubernatorial recall election debates
No.	Date (2021)	Host / Sponsor	Moderator(s)	Link
1	July 24	Yes California (virtual format)	Marcus Ruiz Evans & Tom Elias
2	August 4	Nixon Presidential Library	Hugh Hewitt (with Robert C. O'Brien, Christine Devine and Elex Michaelson serving as panelists)
3	August 17	Sacramento Press Club	Vicki Gonzalez
4	August 19	KRON-TV studios, San Francisco	Nikki Laurenzo & Frank Buckley
5	August 25	KCRA-TV studios, Sacramento	Alexei Koseff & Deirdre Fitzpatrick

Participation

Participating candidates in the debates

Candidate	P  Present  A  Absent  N  Not invited  W  Withdrawn
	Debate number (see table above)
	1	2	3	4	5
Larry Elder	A	A	A	A	A
John Cox	A	P	P	P	P
Kevin Faulconer	A	P	P	P	P
Kevin Kiley	A	P	P	P	P
Caitlyn Jenner	A	A	A	A	A
Kevin Paffrath	A	N	N	N	P
Doug Ose	P	P	W	W	W
Jacqueline McGowan	P	N	N	N	N
James G. Hanink	P	N	N	N	N
Holly L. Baade	P	N	N	N	N
David Alexander Bramante	P	N	N	N	N
John R. Drake	P	N	N	N	N
David Hillberg	P	N	N	N	N
Dan Kapelovitz	P	N	N	N	N
Kevin K. Kaul	P	N	N	N	N
Daniel R. Mercuri	P	N	N	N	N
Joel A. Ventresca	P	N	N	N	N
Daniel Watts	P	N	N	N	N

Endorsements

On recall question

"Yes" (for recall)

Executive branch officials

• Richard Grenell, former United States Ambassador to Germany (2018–2020), former acting director of National Intelligence (2020) and former Special Presidential Envoy for Serbia and Kosovo Peace Negotiations (2019–2021)

Governors

• Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas (1996–2007) and candidate for President of the United States in 2008 and 2016
• Pete Wilson, 36th Governor of California (1991–1999), United States Senator from California (1983–1991), and 29th mayor of San Diego (1971–1983)

U.S representatives

• Ken Calvert, U.S. representative from California's 42nd congressional district (2023–present), California's 41st congressional district (2013–2023), California's 44th congressional district (2003–2023) and California's 43rd congressional district (1993–2003)
• Newt Gingrich, former U.S. representative from Georgia's 6th congressional district (1979–1999), 50th Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (1995–1999), and candidate for President of the United States in 2012
• Mike Garcia, U.S. representative from California's 25th congressional district (2020–2023) and California's 27th congressional district (2023–present)
• Dan Crenshaw, U.S. representative from Texas's 2nd congressional district (2019–present)
• Young Kim, U.S. representative from California's 39th congressional district (2021–2023) and California's 40th congressional district (2023–present)
• Doug LaMalfa, U.S. representative from California's 1st congressional district (2013–present)
• Kevin McCarthy, U.S. representative from California's 23rd congressional district (2007–2023), California's 20th congressional district (2023) and House Minority Leader (2019–present)
• Tom McClintock, U.S. representative from California's 4th congressional district (2009–2023), California's 5th congressional district (2023–present) and candidate for governor in the 2003 recall election
• Devin Nunes, U.S. representative from California's 22nd congressional district (2003–2022)
• Jay Obernolte, U.S. representative from California's 8th congressional district (2021–present)
• Michelle Steel, U.S. representative from California's 48th congressional district (2021–2023) and California's 45th congressional district (2023–present)
• Darrell Issa, U.S. representative from and California's 48th congressional district (2023–present), California's 50th congressional district (2021–2023), California's 49th congressional district (2003–2019), and California's 48th congressional district (2001–2003); former director of the USTDA (2019–2021)
• David Valadao, U.S. representative from California's 21st congressional district (2013–2019; 2021–2023) and California's 22nd congressional district (2023–present)
• Doug Ose, former U.S. representative for California's 3rd congressional district (1999–2005) and candidate for governor in 2018 and 2021
• Burgess Owens, U.S. representative for Utah's 4th congressional district (2021–present)

State legislators

• Laurie Davies, state assemblymember from the 73rd district (2020–present)
• Shannon Grove, state senator from the 16th district (2018–present) and former Republican Minority Leader of the California Senate (2019–2021)
• Gloria Romero, former state senator from the 24th district (2001–2009) and former Democratic Majority Leader of the California Senate (2001–2008) (Democrat)
• Dov Hikind, former state assemblymember from New York's 48th Assembly District (1983–2018) (Democrat)

Local officials

• Clint Eastwood, former mayor of Carmel-by-the-Sea (1986–1988), actor, film director, composer, and producer (Libertarian)
• Mike Feinstein, former mayor of Santa Monica (2000–2002) and candidate for California Secretary of State in 2018 (Green)
• Joel Anderson, member of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors (2021–present) and former state senator from the 38th district (2010–2018)

Individuals

• David O. Sacks, technology industry executive
• Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City (1994–2001) and former United States Associate Attorney General (1981–1983)
• Rose McGowan, activist and former actress
• Kat Von D, tattoo artist and television personality

Organizations

• California Republican Party
• Howard Jarvis Taxpayers Association
• Libertarian Party of California

Newspapers and other media

• The Bakersfield Californian Editorial Board
• Southern California News Group

"No" (against recall)

Executive branch officials

• Joe Biden, 46th president of the United States (2021–present), 47th vice president of the United States (2009–2017), and former U.S. senator from Delaware (1973–2009)
• Kamala Harris, 49th vice president of the United States (2021–present) and former U.S. senator from California (2017–2021)
• Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States (2009–2017) and former U.S. senator from Illinois (2005–2008)

U.S. senators

• Cory Booker, United States senator from New Jersey (2013–present) and candidate for President of the United States in 2020
• Barbara Boxer, former U.S. senator from California (1993–2017)
• Amy Klobuchar, U.S. senator from Minnesota (2007–present) and candidate for President of the United States in 2020
• Alex Padilla, U.S. senator from California (2021–present) and former California Secretary of State (2015–2021)
• Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from Vermont (2007–present) and candidate for President of the United States in 2016 and 2020 (Independent)
• Chuck Schumer, U.S. senator from New York (1999–present) and Senate Majority Leader (2021–present)
• Elizabeth Warren, U.S. senator from Massachusetts (2013–present) and candidate for President of the United States in 2020

U.S representatives

• Karen Bass, United States representative from California's 37th congressional district (2013–2022)
• Julia Brownley, U.S. representative from California's 26th congressional district (2013–present)
• John Burton, former U.S. representative from California's 5th congressional district (1975–1983)
• Salud Carbajal, U.S. representative from California's 24th congressional district (2017–present)
• Judy Chu, U.S. representative from California's 28th congressional district (2023–present), California's 27th congressional district (2013–2023) and California's 32nd congressional district (2009–2013)
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, U.S. representative from New York's 14th congressional district (2019–present)
• Mark DeSaulnier, U.S. representative from California's 10th congressional district (2023–present) and California's 11th congressional district (2015–2023)
• Nancy Pelosi, U.S. representative from California's 12th congressional district (1987–present) and 52nd Speaker of the United States House of Representatives (2007–2011; 2019–2023)
• Katie Porter, U.S. representative from California's 47th congressional district (2023–present) and California's 45th congressional district (2019–2023)
• Ro Khanna, U.S. representative from California's 17th congressional district (2017–present)
• Barbara Lee, U.S. representative from California's 12th congressional district (2023–present), California's 13th congressional district (2013–2023) and California's 9th congressional district (1998–2013)
• Ted Lieu, U.S. representative from California's 33rd congressional district (2015–present)
• Zoe Lofgren, U.S. representative from California's 18th congressional district (2023–present), California's 19th congressional district (2013–2023) and California's 16th congressional district (1995–2013)
• Alan Lowenthal, U.S. representative from California's 42nd congressional district (2023–present) and California's 47th congressional district (2013–2023)
• Doris Matsui, U.S. representative from California's 7th congressional district (2023–present), California's 6th congressional district (2013–2023) and California's 5th congressional district (2005–2013)
• Raul Ruiz, U.S. representative from California's 36th congressional district (2013–2023) and California's 25th congressional district (2023–present)
• Adam Schiff, U.S. representative from California's 30th congressional district (2023–present), California's 28th congressional district (2013–2023), California's 29th congressional district (2003–2013) and California's 27th congressional district (2001–2003)
• Jackie Speier, U.S. representative from California's 14th congressional district (2013–2023) and California's 12th congressional district (2008–2013)
• Sara Jacobs, U.S. representative from California's 51st congressional district (2023–present) and California's 53rd congressional district (2021–2023)
• Maxine Waters, U.S. representative from California's 43rd congressional district (2013–present) and California's 35th congressional district (1993–2013)

State officeholders

• Stacey Abrams, former minority leader of the Georgia House of Representatives (2011–2017), Democratic nominee for Governor of Georgia in 2018, and founder of Fair Fight Action
• Rob Bonta, California Attorney General (2021–present) and former state assemblymember from the 18th district (2012–2021)
• Jerry Brown, former governor of California (1975–1983; 2011–2019)
• Wendy Carrillo, state assemblymember from the 51st district (2017–present)
• David Chiu, state assemblymember from the 17th district (2014–present) and former president of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors (2009–2014)
• Bill Dodd, state senator from the 3rd district (2016–present)
• Laura Friedman, state assemblymember from the 43rd district (2016–present)
• Lorena Gonzalez, state assemblymember from the 80th district (2013–present)
• María Elena Durazo, state senator from the 24th district (2018–present)
• Sydney Kamlager-Dove, state senator from the 30th district (2021–2022)
• Eleni Kounalakis, Lieutenant Governor of California (2019–present) and former United States Ambassador to Hungary (2010–2013)
• Ricardo Lara, California Insurance Commissioner (2019–present)
• Fiona Ma, California State Treasurer (2019–present), former member of the California Board of Equalization (2015–2019), and former state assemblymember from the 12th district (2006–2012)
• Fran Pavley, former state senator from the 27th district (2008–2016)
• Richard Pan, state senator from the 6th district (2014–present)
• Robert Rivas, state assemblymember from the 30th district (2018–present)
• Rudy Salas, state assemblymember from the 32nd district (2012–2022)
• Nancy Skinner, state senator from the 9th district (2016–present)
• Tony Thurmond, California State Superintendent of Public Instruction (2019–present)
• Hannah-Beth Jackson, former state senator from the 19th district (2012–2020)
• Betty Yee, California State Controller (2015–2023) and former member of the California Board of Equalization (2004–2015)

Local officials

• London Breed, Mayor of San Francisco (2018–present)
• Robert Garcia, Mayor of Long Beach (2014–2022)
• Todd Gloria, Mayor of San Diego (2020–present) and former state assemblymember from the 78th district (2016–2020)
• Sam Liccardo, Mayor of San Jose (2015–2023)
• Libby Schaaf, Mayor of Oakland (2015–2023)
• Antonio Villaraigosa, former Mayor of Los Angeles (2005–2013), former Speaker of the California State Assembly (1998–2000), and 2018 gubernatorial candidate

Individuals

• Byron Allen, entertainment industry executive
• Mary Carey, adult film actress and candidate for Governor of California in the 2003 recall election
• Jaime Harrison, Chair of the DNC
• Alan F. Horn, entertainment industry executive
• George Lopez, actor and comedian
• Alyssa Milano, actress and activist
• Michael Moore, author, film documentary and activist
• Paula Poundstone, actress, author, and comedian
• Rob Reiner, actor, filmmaker, and activist
• Ann Sarnoff, television executive
• George Takei, actor and activist
• Elijah Wood, actor and producer

Newspapers and other media

• Bay Area Reporter Editorial Board
• Los Angeles Times Editorial Board
• McClatchy California Editorial Boards
• The Mercury News and East Bay Times Editorial Boards
• Monterey County Weekly Editorial Board
• Napa Valley Register Editorial Board
• The New York Times Editorial Board
• The San Diego Union-Tribune Editorial Board
• San Francisco Chronicle Editorial Board
• Santa Barbara Independent Editorial Board

Organizations

• American Civil Liberties Union California Action
• Armenian National Committee of America-Western Region
• California Democratic Party
• California Faculty Association
• California Federation of Teachers
• California League of Conservation Voters
• Climate Hawks Vote
• Democratic Governors Association
• Democratic Socialists of America Los Angeles Electoral Committee
• Equality California
• Green Party of California
• Human Rights Campaign
• International Association of Fire Fighters
• Jewish Democratic Council of America
• NARAL Pro-Choice California
• National Union of Healthcare Workers
• Peace and Freedom Party
• Planned Parenthood Affiliates of California
• Service Employees International Union California
• Socialist Equality Party
• United Food and Commercial Workers
• Valley Industry & Commerce Association

For candidates

Larry Elder (R)

Governors

• Pete Wilson, 36th Governor of California (1991–1999), former U.S. senator from California (1983–1991), and 29th Mayor of San Diego (1971–1983)

U.S. representatives

• Dan Crenshaw, U.S. representative from Texas's 2nd congressional district (2019–present)
• Burgess Owens, U.S. representative from Utah's 4th congressional district (2021–present)
• Michelle Steel, U.S. representative from California's 45th congressional district (2023–present) and California's 48th congressional district (2021–2023), former member of the Orange County Board of Supervisors (2015–2021), and former member of the California State Board of Equalization (2007–2015)

State legislators

• Laurie Davies, state assemblymember from the 73rd district (2020–present)
• Shannon Grove, state senator from the 16th district (2018–present) and former minority leader of the California Senate (2019–2021)
• Gloria Romero, former state senator from the 24th district (2001–2009) and former Democratic Majority Leader of the California Senate (2001–2008)
• Dov Hikind, former state assemblymember from New York's 48th Assembly District (1983–2018) (Democrat)

Local officials

• Rudy Giuliani, former Mayor of New York City (1994–2001) and former United States Associate Attorney General (1981–1983)
• Clint Eastwood, former mayor of Carmel-by-the-Sea (1986–1988), actor, film director, composer, and producer

Individuals

• Hugh Hewitt, radio talk show host
• Rose McGowan, former actress and activist
• Mike Piazza, former professional baseball player
• Chuck Norris, martial artist, actor, film producer, and screenwriter

Organizations

• American Independent Party
• California College Republicans
• California Rifle and Pistol Association
• New York Young Republican Club

Newspapers and other media

• The Santa Clarita Valley Signal
• Southern California News Group

Kevin Faulconer (R)

U.S. representatives

• Darrell Issa, U.S. representative from California's 48th congressional district (2023–present), California's 50th congressional district (2021–2023), California's 49th congressional district (2003–2019), and California's 48th congressional district (2001–2003); former director of the USTDA (2019–2021)

State legislators

• Patricia Bates, state senator from the 36th district (2014–present) and former minority leader of the California Senate (2017–2019)
• Frank Bigelow, state assemblymember from the 5th district (2012–present)
• Jordan Cunningham, state assemblymember from the 35th district (2016–present)
• Megan Dahle, state assemblymember from the 1st district (2019–present)
• Heath Flora, state assemblymember from the 12th district (2016–present)
• Brian Jones, state senator from the 38th district (2018–present)
• Tom Lackey, state assemblymember from the 36th district (2014–present)
• Devon Mathis, state assemblymember from the 26th district (2014–present)
• Melissa Melendez, state senator from the 28th district (2020–present)
• Janet Nguyen, state assemblymember from the 72nd district (2020–present)
• Jim Nielsen, state senator from the 4th district (2013–present)
• Thurston Smith, state assemblymember from the 33rd district (2020–present)
• Randy Voepel, state assemblymember from the 71st district (2016–present)
• Marie Waldron, state assemblymember from the 75th district (2012–present) and Minority Leader of the California Assembly (2018–present)
• Scott Wilk, state senator from the 21st district (2016–present) and Minority Leader of the California Senate (2021–present)

Individuals

• Michael Shellenberger, author and a 2018 gubernatorial candidate

Newspapers and other media

• The Bakersfield Californian Editorial Board
• Los Angeles Times Editorial Board

James Hanink (ASP, but listed on the ballot as "No Party Preference")

Individuals

• Brian Carroll, teacher and 2020 ASP presidential nominee

Organizations

• American Solidarity Party

Jeff Hewitt (L)

Organizations

• Libertarian Party of California

Dan Kapelovitz (G)

Local officials

• Mike Feinstein, former mayor of Santa Monica (2000–2002) and candidate for California Secretary of State in 2018

Organizations

• Green Party of California

Kevin Kiley (R)

U.S. representatives

• Doug Ose, former U.S. representative for California's 3rd congressional district (1999–2005), candidate for governor in 2018 and 2021

Local officials

• Joel Anderson, member of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors (2021–present) and former state senator from the 38th district (2010–2018)

Individuals

• Orrin Heatlie, main recall organizer and retired county sheriff's sergeant

Newspapers and other media

• RedState, conservative blog

Michael Loebs (CNP, but listed on the ballot as "No Party Preference")

Organizations

• California National Party

David Moore (SEP, but listed on the ballot as "No Party Preference")

Organizations

• Socialist Equality Party

Dennis Richter (SWP, but listed on the ballot as "No Party Preference")

Individuals

• Alyson Kennedy, mineworker and SWP nominee for president in 2016 and 2020

Organizations

• Socialist Workers Party

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report	Likely D	September 13, 2021
Inside Elections	Likely D	August 16, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Likely D	September 9, 2021

Newsom recall

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Yes on recall	No on recall	Undecided	Margin
Real Clear Politics	September 6–13, 2021	September 14, 2021	41.8%	56.3%	1.9%	No on recall +14.5
FiveThirtyEight	August 27 – September 14, 2021	September 14, 2021	41.5%	57.3%	1.2%	No on recall +15.8
Average			41.7%	56.8%	1.5%	No on recall +15.1
Result			38.12%	61.88%	–	No on recall +23.76

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Yes on recall	No on recall	Undecided
2021 CA gubernatorial election	September 14, 2021	12,892,578	–	38.12%	61.88%	–
The Trafalgar Group (R)	September 11–13, 2021	1,082 (LV)	± 3.0%	45%	53%	2%
Momentive	August 31 – September 13, 2021	3,985 (LV)	± 1.6%	41%	55%	4%
Emerson College	September 10–11, 2021	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	40%	60%	1%
Data for Progress (D)	September 2–10, 2021	2,464 (LV)	± 2.0%	43%	57%	–
SurveyUSA	September 7–8, 2021	930 (LV)	± 4.2%	41%	54%	5%
Suffolk University	September 6–7, 2021	500 (LV)	± 4.4%	41%	58%	1%
Berkeley IGS	August 30 – September 6, 2021	7,917 (LV)	± 2.0%	38%	60%	1%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	September 2–4, 2021	1,079 (LV)	± 3.0%	43%	53%	4%
YouGov	August 30 – September 1, 2021	1,618 (LV)	± 3.0%	43%	57%	–
The Trafalgar Group (R)	August 26–29, 2021	1,088 (LV)	± 3.0%	44%	52%	4%
Public Policy Institute of California	August 20–29, 2021	1,080 (LV)	± 4.5%	39%	58%	3%
SurveyUSA	August 26–28, 2021	816 (LV)	± 4.4%	43%	51%	6%
Gravis Marketing	August 25–27, 2021	729 (LV)	± 3.6%	45%	50%	5%
Targoz Market Research	August 23–25, 2021	787 (LV)	± 3.5%	42%	52%	6%
Change Research (D)	August 22–25, 2021	782 (LV)	± 3.7%	42%	57%	1%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies	August 20–22, 2021	1,000 (RV)	± 3.1%	41%	48%	11%
		964 (LV)	± 3.2%	43%	51%	7%
YouGov	August 6–12, 2021	1,585 (RV)	± 3.4%	46%	54%	–
		1,534 (LV)	± 3.8%	48%	52%	–
SurveyUSA	August 2–4, 2021	613 (LV)	± 5.0%	51%	40%	9%
Emerson College	July 30 – August 1, 2021	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	46%	48%	6%
Core Decision Analytics	July 27–29, 2021	804 (RV)	± 3.5%	41%	52%	7%
		~728 (LV)	± 3.6%	44%	51%	5%
Berkeley IGS	July 18–24, 2021	5,795 (RV)	± 2.0%	36%	51%	13%
		3,266 (LV)	± 2.5%	47%	50%	3%
Emerson College	July 19–20, 2021	1,085 (RV)	± 2.9%	43%	48%	9%
Change Research (D)	June 11–16, 2021	1,085 (RV)	± 3.0%	40%	54%	6%
Moore Information Group (R)	June 1–3, 2021	800 (RV)	± 3.0%	44%	50%	6%
		682 (LV)	± 4.0%	49%	46%	5%
Tulchin Research (D)	May 21–30, 2021	1,500 (RV)	± 2.5%	37%	50%	13%
		1,168 (LV)	± 2.9%	38%	52%	9%
Public Policy Institute of California	May 9–18, 2021	1,074 (LV)	± 4.2%	40%	57%	3%
Berkeley IGS	April 29 – May 5, 2021	10,289 (RV)	± 2.0%	36%	49%	15%
		7,943 (LV)	± 2.3%	42%	50%	8%
SurveyUSA	April 30 – May 2, 2021	642 (RV)	± 5.3%	36%	47%	17%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)	April 15–19, 2021	1,000 (LV)	± 3.1%	45%	45%	10%
Public Policy Institute of California	March 14–23, 2021	1,174 (LV)	± 3.9%	40%	56%	5%
Probolsky Research (R)	March 16–19, 2021	900 (RV)	± 3.3%	40%	46%	14%
		900 (LV)	± 3.3%	35%	53%	13%
Emerson College	March 12–14, 2021	1,045 (RV)	± 3.0%	38%	42%	20%
WPA Intelligence (R)	February 12–14, 2021	645 (LV)	± 3.9%	47%	43%	10%
Berkeley IGS	January 23–29, 2021	10,357 (RV)	± 2.0%	36%	45%	20%
		7,980 (LV)	± 2.4%	36%	49%	15%
Remington Research (R)	March 17–18, 2019	1,303 (LV)	± 2.7%	31%	52%	17%

Replacement candidates

The table below contains all candidates who had polled at or above 2% since the filing deadline for the recall, had raised at least $100,000 (excluding loans and including at least $5,000 in the most recent filing period), were a current or former elected official, or were otherwise considered notable in their own right. The graphical summary includes all candidates who met at least one of those criteria and had appeared in at least four separate publicly released polls.

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Elder (R)	Paffrath (D)	Faulconer (R)	Cox (R)	Kiley (R)	Jenner (R)	Other/Undecided	Margin
Real Clear Politics	August 20 – Sep 13, 2021	Sep 13, 2021	32.4%	7.8%	5.3%	4.0%	3.1%	1.3%	46.1%	Elder +24.6
FiveThirtyEight	July 18 – Sep 13, 2021	Sep 13, 2021	29.7%	6.1%	5.1%	4.5%	3.0%	1.0%	50.6%	Elder +23.6
Average			31.1%	7.0%	5.2%	4.3%	3.1%	1.2%	48.4%	Elder +24.1
Result			48.4%	9.6%	8.0%	4.1%	3.5%	1.0%	25.4%	Elder +38.8

Graphical summary

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	(I) Angelyne	(D) Holly Baade	(R) John Cox	(D) John Drake	(R) Larry Elder	(R) Kevin Faulconer	(R) Ted Gaines	(L) Jeff Hewitt	(R) Caitlyn Jenner	(G) Dan Kapelovitz	(R) Kevin Kiley	(D) Patrick Kilpatrick	(D) Jacqueline McGowan	(R) Doug Ose	(D) Kevin Paffrath	(D) Armando Perez-Serrato	(D) Brandon Ross	(D) Joel Ventresca	(D) Daniel Watts	Other	Undecided	None
2021 CA gubernatorial election	Sep 14, 2021	7,361,568	–	0.5%	1.3%	4.1%	0.9%	48.4%	8.0%	0.7%	0.7%	1.0%	0.9%	3.5%	1.2%	2.9%	0.4%	9.6%	1.2%	5.3%	2.5%	2.3%	4.6%	–	–
The Trafalgar Group (R)	Sep 11–13, 2021	1,082 (LV)	± 3.0%	–	–	3%	1%	41%	4%	–	–	1%	–	4%	–	4%	–	10%	–	1%	–	–	9%	23%	–
Emerson College	Sep 10–11, 2021	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	–	–	3%	6%	30%	4%	–	–	2%	–	4%	–	3%	1%	6%	–	–	–	–	3%	6%	34%
Data for Progress (D)	Sep 2–10, 2021	2,557 (LV)	± 2.0%	–	2%	7%	–	22%	4%	–	–	1%	–	3%	–	4%	–	6%	–	5%	–	3%	5%	7%	29%
SurveyUSA	Sep 7–8, 2021	597 (LV)	± 5.5%	–	4%	8%	4%	29%	6%	–	–	2%	–	3%	2%	4%	–	9%	1%	3%	2%	2%	6%	13%	–
Suffolk University	Sep 6–7, 2021	233 (LV)	± 6.4%	0%	0%	4%	1%	39%	5%	1%	1%	1%	0%	2%	–	2%	0%	5%	0%	2%	1%	–	–	7%	–
Berkeley IGS	Aug 30 – Sep 6, 2021	4,707 (LV)	± 2.6%	–	1%	4%	1%	38%	8%	–	1%	1%	1%	4%	1%	2%	–	10%	1%	3%	2%	1%	8%	16%	–
The Trafalgar Group (R)	Sep 2–4, 2021	1,079 (LV)	± 3.0%	–	–	3%	–	32%	4%	–	–	1%	–	4%	–	3%	–	13%	–	–	–	–	11%	29%	–
YouGov	Aug 30 – Sep 1, 2021	1,618 (LV)	± 3.0%	1%	1%	3%	1%	24%	5%	0%	1%	1%	1%	2%	1%	2%	1%	7%	1%	1%	1%	1%	4%	–	39%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	Aug 26–29, 2021	1,088 (LV)	± 3.0%	–	–	4%	–	29%	4%	–	–	1%	–	–	–	–	0%	22%	–	–	–	–	9%	30%	–
Public Policy Institute of California	Aug 20–29, 2021	1,080 (LV)	± 4.5%	–	–	3%	–	26%	5%	–	–	1%	–	3%	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	14%	24%	25%
SurveyUSA	Aug 26–28, 2021	515 (LV)	± 5.2%	–	5%	6%	2%	27%	5%	–	–	2%	–	5%	–	5%	–	6%	3%	5%	2%	–	12%	14%	–
Gravis Marketing	Aug 25–27, 2021	729 (LV)	± 3.6%	–	–	4%	–	22%	6%	1%	2%	3%	3%	4%	–	–	–	18%	–	–	–	–	16%	21%	–
Targoz Market Research	Aug 23–25, 2021	787 (LV)	± 3.5%	–	–	13%	–	12%	7%	–	–	3%	–	3%	–	–	2%	13%	–	–	–	–	4%	20%	23%
Change Research (D)	Aug 22–25, 2021	782 (LV)	± 3.7%	–	2%	2%	–	27%	3%	–	–	1%	–	4%	–	5%	1%	6%	–	3%	–	3%	7%	15%	22%
YouGov	Aug 6–12, 2021	1,534 (LV)	± 3.8%	–	–	3%	–	23%	3%	2%	1%	2%	–	3%	–	–	2%	13%	–	–	–	–	5%	25%	20%
SurveyUSA	Aug 2–4, 2021	545 (LV)	± 5.4%	–	–	10%	–	23%	5%	–	–	4%	–	3%	–	–	4%	27%	–	–	–	–	5%	20%	–
Emerson College	Jul 30 – Aug 1, 2021	1,000 (LV)	± 3.0%	–	–	7%	–	23%	4%	–	–	7%	–	5%	–	–	0%	1%	–	–	–	–	14%	40%	–
Core Decision Analytics	Jul 27–29, 2021	803 (RV)	± 3.5%	1%	1%	4%	0%	9%	3%	1%	1%	1%	1%	2%	1%	3%	1%	2%	1%	2%	0%	1%	9%	34%	22%
		~728 (LV)	± 3.6%	1%	1%	4%	0%	10%	3%	1%	1%	1%	1%	2%	1%	3%	1%	3%	1%	2%	0%	1%	8%	32%	22%
Berkeley IGS	Jul 18–24, 2021	5,795 (RV)	± 2.0%	1%	2%	7%	1%	12%	8%	0%	1%	2%	1%	3%	0%	2%	1%	5%	–	2%	1%	2%	1%	44%	–
		3,266 (LV)	± 2.5%	0%	1%	10%	1%	18%	10%	0%	1%	3%	1%	5%	0%	1%	1%	3%	–	1%	0%	2%	1%	40%	–
Emerson College	Jul 19–20, 2021	1,085 (RV)	± 2.9%	–	–	6%	–	16%	6%	–	–	4%	–	4%	–	–	0%	2%	–	–	–	–	8%	53%	–
Moore Information Group (R)	Jun 1–3, 2021	800 (RV)	± 3.0%	–	–	22%	–	–	11%	–	–	6%	–	–	–	–	4%	–	–	–	–	–	18%	39%	–
		682 (LV)	± 4.0%	–	–	24%	–	–	12%	–	–	6%	–	–	–	–	4%	–	–	–	–	–	17%	37%	–
SurveyUSA	Apr 30 – May 2, 2021	642 (RV)	± 5.3%	–	–	9%	–	–	3%	–	–	5%	–	–	–	–	2%	–	–	–	–	–	17%	26%	38%

Hypothetical polling

Full-field ballot including potential Democratic candidates

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	John Cox (R)	Kevin de León (D)	Kevin Faulconer (R)	Caitlyn Jenner (R)	Doug Ose (R)	Tom Steyer (D)	Antonio Villaraigosa (D)	Other	Undecided
Moore Information Group (R)	Jun 1–3, 2021	800 (RV)	± 3.0%	16%	4%	7%	4%	2%	5%	9%	14%	38%
		682 (LV)	± 4.0%	18%	4%	8%	4%	2%	5%	8%	13%	37%

Antonio Villaraigosa vs. Kevin Faulconer

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Antonio Villaraigosa (D)	Kevin Faulconer (R)	Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)	Feb 12–14, 2021	645 (LV)	± 3.9%	28%	31%	41%

Results

The recall election result was officially certified on October 22, 2021. Newsom had survived the recall with similar results as his first run for governor. No on recall votes exceeded that of what the votes Newsom received in 2018 by 200,000 votes and had a similar vote percentage as well. No on recall had also won nearly all counties that Newsom had, save for Merced County that voted for the recall by 4 points.

Substantially fewer voters voted on the second question regarding replacement candidates than had voted on the first question regarding whether Newsom should be recalled.

2021 California gubernatorial recall election (question 1)
Choice		Votes	%
	No on recall	7,944,092	61.88
	Yes on recall	4,894,473	38.12
Blank and invalid votes		54,013	–
Total votes		12,892,578	100
Registered voters and turnout		22,057,154	58.45%

Replacement ballot results by county

Elder

•   20–30%
•   30–40%
•   40–50%
•   50–60%
•   60–70%

Paffrath

•   20–30%

2021 California gubernatorial recall election (question 2)

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Larry Elder	3,563,867	48.4%
	Democratic	Kevin Paffrath	706,778	9.6%
	Republican	Kevin Faulconer	590,346	8.0%
	Democratic	Brandon M. Ross	392,029	5.3%
	Republican	John Cox	305,095	4.1%
	Republican	Kevin Kiley	255,490	3.5%
	Democratic	Jacqueline McGowan	214,242	2.9%
	Democratic	Joel Ventresca	186,345	2.5%
	Democratic	Daniel Watts	167,355	2.3%
	Democratic	Holly L. Baade	92,218	1.3%
	Democratic	Patrick Kilpatrick	86,617	1.2%
	Democratic	Armando "Mando" Perez-Serrato	85,061	1.2%
	Republican	Caitlyn Jenner	75,215	1.0%
	Democratic	John R. Drake	68,545	0.9%
	Green	Dan Kapelovitz	64,375	0.9%
	Libertarian	Jeff Hewitt	50,378	0.7%
	Republican	Ted Gaines	47,937	0.7%
	No party preference	Angelyne	35,900	0.5%
	No party preference	David Moore	31,224	0.4%
	Republican	Anthony Trimino	28,101	0.4%
	Republican	Doug Ose	26,204	0.4%
	No party preference	Michael Loebs	25,468	0.3%
	Green	Heather Collins	24,260	0.3%
	No party preference	Major Singh	21,394	0.3%
	Republican	David Lozano	19,945	0.3%
	Republican	Denver Stoner	19,588	0.3%
	Republican	Sam Gallucci	18,134	0.2%
	Republican	Steve Chavez Lodge	17,435	0.2%
	Republican	Jenny Rae Le Roux	16,032	0.2%
	Republican	David Alexander Bramante	11,501	0.2%
	Republican	Diego Martinez	10,860	0.1%
	Republican	Robert C. Newman II	10,602	0.1%
	Republican	Sarah Stephens	10,583	0.1%
	No party preference	Dennis Richter	10,468	0.1%
	Republican	Major Williams (write-in)	8,965	0.1%
	No party preference	Denis Lucey	8,182	0.1%
	No party preference	James G. Hanink	7,193	0.1%
	Republican	Daniel Mercuri	7,110	0.1%
	Republican	Chauncey "Slim" Killens	6,879	0.1%
	Republican	Leo S. Zacky	6,099	0.1%
	No party preference	Kevin Kaul	5,600	0.1%
	Republican	David Hillberg	4,435	0.1%
	No party preference	Adam Papagan	4,021	0.1%
	Republican	Rhonda Furin	3,964	0.1%
	Republican	Nickolas Wildstar	3,811	0.1%
	No party preference	Jeremiah "Jeremy" Marciniak	2,894	0.0%
	Republican	Joe M. Symmon	2,397	0.0%
	No party preference	Miki Habryn (write-in)	137	0.0%
	Democratic	Roxanne (write-in)	116	0.0%
	Democratic	Stacy Smith (write-in)	81	0.0%
	No party preference	Vivek B. Mohan (write-in)	68	0.0%
	American Independent	Thuy E. Hugens (write-in)	19	0.0%
	No party preference	Vince Lundgren (write-in)	5	0.0%
Total valid votes			7,361,568	100.00%
Invalid or blank votes			5,531,010	42.90%
Turnout			12,892,578	58.45%
Registered electors			22,057,154

By county

On recall question

Here are the results of the recall election by county. Khaki represents counties won by No. Light blue represents counties won by Yes.

County	No		Yes
	%	#	%	#
Alameda	81.2%	465,901	18.8%	108,081
Alpine	61.1%	354	38.9%	225
Amador	35.0%	6,957	65.0%	12,895
Butte	45.6%	36,128	54.4%	43,129
Calaveras	35.5%	8,320	64.5%	15,133
Colusa	33.4%	2,027	66.6%	4,037
Contra Costa	71.4%	324,747	28.6%	130,058
Del Norte	40.1%	3,505	59.9%	5,243
El Dorado	40.6%	39,907	59.4%	58,393
Fresno	48.7%	126,488	51.3%	133,309
Glenn	28.2%	2,485	71.8%	6,331
Humboldt	64.0%	33,164	36.0%	18,621
Imperial	59.4%	19,288	40.6%	13,177
Inyo	45.9%	3,502	54.1%	4,134
Kern	38.2%	81,030	61.8%	131,061
Kings	36.3%	11,242	63.7%	19,710
Lake	51.0%	11,367	49.0%	10,923
Lassen	15.8%	1,604	84.2%	8,538
Los Angeles	70.8%	2,077,859	29.2%	855,940
Madera	38.8%	16,233	61.2%	25,638
Marin	81.7%	108,599	18.3%	24,273
Mariposa	38.6%	3,376	61.4%	5,378
Mendocino	64.7%	22,093	35.3%	12,075
Merced	48.0%	27,867	52.0%	30,210
Modoc	22.0%	730	78.0%	2,593
Mono	55.5%	2,805	44.5%	2,245
Monterey	67.9%	80,664	32.1%	38,169
Napa	67.6%	38,948	32.4%	18,681
Nevada	54.0%	29,851	46.0%	25,426
Orange	51.7%	586,457	48.3%	547,685
Placer	42.6%	85,677	57.4%	115,411
Plumas	36.8%	3,408	63.2%	5,842
Riverside	49.5%	355,630	50.5%	362,958
Sacramento	59.9%	329,952	40.1%	220,498
San Benito	57.8%	12,718	42.2%	9,276
San Bernardino	50.2%	288,877	49.8%	286,364
San Diego	57.2%	674,670	42.8%	505,081
San Francisco	86.1%	292,744	13.9%	47,193
San Joaquin	52.6%	105,405	47.4%	94,877
San Luis Obispo	52.8%	68,429	47.2%	61,203
San Mateo	77.9%	227,368	22.1%	64,390
Santa Barbara	61.8%	94,219	38.2%	58,149
Santa Clara	73.7%	468,851	26.3%	166,995
Santa Cruz	78.1%	90,874	21.9%	25,454
Shasta	30.4%	22,592	69.6%	51,608
Sierra	36.6%	616	63.4%	1,065
Siskiyou	38.1%	6,961	61.9%	11,295
Solano	62.7%	97,935	37.3%	58,372
Sonoma	73.7%	160,602	26.3%	57,419
Stanislaus	45.5%	69,247	54.5%	82,911
Sutter	36.2%	11,593	63.8%	20,458
Tehama	27.6%	6,386	72.4%	16,770
Trinity	43.8%	2,106	56.2%	2,699
Tulare	38.9%	41,009	61.1%	64,372
Tuolumne	38.4%	9,850	61.6%	15,832
Ventura	57.2%	182,470	42.8%	136,610
Yolo	67.9%	52,444	32.1%	24,769
Yuba	34.2%	7,961	65.8%	15,291
Totals	61.88%	7,944,092	38.12%	4,894,473

On replacement candidates

Here are the results of the election by county for replacement candidates. Red represents counties won by Elder. Blue represents a county won by Paffrath.

County	Elder		Paffrath		Faulconer		Ross		Others
	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#
Alameda	26.83%	68,410	18.65%	47,543	7.36%	18,755	6.69%	17,067	40.48%	103,203
Alpine	48.01%	157	7.65%	25	3.98%	13	4.89%	16	35.47%	116
Amador	60.68%	8,862	3.20%	467	7.30%	1,066	2.09%	305	26.74%	3,905
Butte	52.41%	28,705	6.48%	3,547	3.80%	2,083	3.43%	1,876	33.88%	18,555
Calaveras	62.61%	10,660	2.93%	499	6.33%	1,077	1.81%	309	26.32%	4,481
Colusa	54.48%	2,574	3.45%	163	4.08%	193	2.33%	110	35.66%	1,685
Contra Costa	37.99%	91,262	12.78%	30,696	7.15%	17,165	8.08%	19,407	34.00%	81,670
Del Norte	64.23%	4,094	4.14%	264	2.68%	171	3.36%	214	25.59%	1,631
El Dorado	53.01%	37,507	4.76%	3,368	7.30%	5,162	2.77%	1,959	32.16%	22,753
Fresno	59.85%	103,060	5.55%	9,551	7.27%	12,514	3.14%	5,411	24.20%	41,669
Glenn	58.60%	4,202	2.86%	205	2.23%	160	2.15%	154	34.17%	2,450
Humboldt	45.58%	13,483	8.55%	2,528	3.87%	1,145	5.11%	1,511	36.89%	10,911
Imperial	50.25%	9,564	5.73%	1,091	4.17%	793	8.15%	1,551	31.70%	6,033
Inyo	63.05%	3,275	4.95%	257	6.55%	340	3.31%	172	22.14%	1,150
Kern	67.79%	99,969	4.87%	7,188	4.50%	6,634	1.41%	2,076	21.43%	31,609
Kings	66.81%	15,577	4.25%	991	5.17%	1,205	2.04%	476	21.73%	5,067
Lake	52.23%	7,259	4.77%	663	3.54%	492	3.42%	475	36.04%	5,008
Lassen	69.58%	6,293	1.43%	129	2.58%	233	1.25%	113	25.17%	2,276
Los Angeles	43.59%	648,067	10.22%	151,944	8.29%	123,331	7.93%	117,961	29.97%	445,562
Madera	65.13%	19,530	3.12%	936	6.52%	1,954	2.20%	660	23.04%	6,908
Marin	29.88%	15,901	16.57%	8,817	12.06%	6,417	11.65%	6,198	29.85%	15,887
Mariposa	63.14%	4,086	4.99%	323	5.97%	386	2.50%	162	23.40%	1,514
Mendocino	42.40%	7,799	7.51%	1,382	4.75%	873	4.08%	750	41.26%	7,589
Merced	61.54%	21,830	4.30%	1,525	3.75%	1,329	2.24%	796	28.17%	9,993
Modoc	62.01%	1,753	1.84%	52	2.12%	60	1.27%	36	32.76%	926
Mono	53.40%	1,690	8.78%	278	7.74%	245	3.70%	117	26.38%	835
Monterey	44.39%	27,841	11.37%	7,130	4.92%	3,088	5.35%	3,354	33.98%	21,312
Napa	43.02%	12,613	9.73%	2,853	7.17%	2,101	6.28%	1,841	33.80%	9,909
Nevada	47.97%	16,546	6.93%	2,390	8.24%	2,841	3.33%	1,149	33.53%	11,564
Orange	57.37%	423,224	8.09%	59,694	7.74%	57,109	3.61%	26,599	23.19%	171,030
Placer	52.02%	73,309	5.11%	7,207	7.53%	10,613	2.92%	4,110	32.42%	45,681
Plumas	57.46%	3,918	3.37%	230	6.22%	424	2.11%	144	30.84%	2,103
Riverside	60.70%	283,217	6.01%	28,046	5.83%	27,214	3.94%	18,379	23.52%	109,740
Sacramento	45.93%	147,776	8.89%	28,585	8.88%	28,579	5.21%	16,772	31.09%	100,010
San Benito	49.03%	6,848	9.21%	1,287	3.32%	464	4.57%	638	33.87%	4,731
San Bernardino	61.59%	225,674	5.47%	20,042	5.27%	19,296	3.85%	14,119	23.82%	87,295
San Diego	46.58%	355,417	10.76%	82,089	14.96%	114,155	4.10%	31,289	23.59%	180,009
San Francisco	20.95%	26,285	21.07%	26,434	11.41%	14,317	6.69%	8,387	39.87%	50,015
San Joaquin	54.16%	68,230	5.59%	7,047	6.26%	7,889	5.60%	7,058	28.38%	35,756
San Luis Obispo	53.68%	45,298	10.90%	9,195	6.64%	5,607	2.92%	2,460	25.87%	21,829
San Mateo	30.82%	41,162	17.43%	23,271	8.87%	11,845	7.62%	10,179	35.26%	47,091
Santa Barbara	49.04%	43,582	10.51%	9,344	6.66%	5,921	4.09%	3,633	29.69%	26,389
Santa Clara	32.79%	105,590	17.86%	57,503	7.50%	24,166	6.70%	21,568	35.15%	113,197
Santa Cruz	31.49%	17,494	17.21%	9,562	5.33%	2,960	7.42%	4,123	38.55%	21,420
Shasta	60.09%	36,022	3.21%	1,922	2.72%	1,631	2.65%	1,586	31.34%	18,788
Sierra	56.70%	698	2.84%	35	7.47%	92	1.22%	15	31.76%	391
Siskiyou	60.89%	8,127	3.30%	441	2.99%	399	3.08%	411	29.74%	3,970
Solano	47.18%	40,387	6.79%	5,813	6.23%	5,336	8.33%	7,132	31.47%	26,935
Sonoma	37.42%	38,131	12.69%	12,936	6.69%	6,821	7.75%	7,903	35.44%	36,119
Stanislaus	57.99%	58,812	4.02%	4,075	6.74%	6,835	5.45%	5,526	25.80%	26,171
Sutter	52.54%	12,440	3.63%	859	5.21%	1,233	2.53%	598	36.10%	8,546
Tehama	61.90%	11,529	2.83%	527	2.42%	451	1.65%	307	31.20%	5,812
Trinity	53.38%	1,770	3.41%	113	2.59%	86	2.20%	73	38.42%	1,274
Tulare	67.64%	51,152	3.85%	2,912	5.61%	4,241	2.46%	1,859	20.45%	15,464
Tuolumne	62.58%	11,374	3.32%	603	5.60%	1,017	2.41%	438	26.09%	4,742
Ventura	56.44%	108,043	7.79%	14,908	7.51%	14,372	3.76%	7,201	24.50%	46,909
Yolo	37.19%	15,911	10.40%	4,450	10.74%	4,596	6.83%	2,921	34.83%	14,900
Yuba	54.86%	9,878	4.68%	843	4.73%	851	2.08%	375	33.65%	6,060
Totals	48.41%	3,563,867	9.60%	706,778	8.02%	590,346	5.33%	392,029	28.64%	2,108,548

By congressional district

On recall question

Khaki represents congressional districts won by No. Light blue represents congressional districts won by Yes. All districts with incumbent Democratic representatives voted for No except one, and all districts with incumbent Republican representatives voted for Yes except two.

District	Yes	No	Representative
1st	61.8%	38.2%	Doug LaMalfa
2nd	26.8%	73.2%	Jared Huffman
3rd	47.8%	52.2%	John Garamendi
4th	58.9%	41.1%	Tom McClintock
5th	28.0%	72.0%	Mike Thompson
6th	30.2%	69.8%	Doris Matsui
7th	46.0%	54.0%	Ami Bera
8th	60.2%	39.8%	Jay Obernolte
9th	44.8%	55.2%	Jerry McNerney
10th	53.3%	46.7%	Josh Harder
11th	25.9%	74.1%	Mark DeSaulnier
12th	13.1%	86.9%	Nancy Pelosi
13th	9.7%	90.3%	Barbara Lee
14th	21.9%	78.1%	Jackie Speier
15th	28.3%	71.7%	Eric Swalwell
16th	45.8%	54.2%	Jim Costa
17th	25.9%	74.1%	Ro Khanna
18th	24.2%	75.8%	Anna Eshoo
19th	28.3%	71.7%	Zoe Lofgren
20th	28.5%	71.5%	Jimmy Panetta
21st	51.4%	48.6%	David Valadao
22nd	58.2%	41.8%	Devin Nunes
23rd	63.6%	36.4%	Kevin McCarthy
24th	42.3%	57.7%	Salud Carbajal
25th	49.0%	51.0%	Mike Garcia
26th	40.9%	59.1%	Julia Brownley
27th	32.9%	67.1%	Judy Chu
28th	26.3%	73.7%	Adam Schiff
29th	24.3%	75.7%	Tony Cárdenas
30th	31.4%	68.6%	Brad Sherman
31st	45.2%	54.8%	Pete Aguilar
32nd	35.4%	64.6%	Grace Napolitano
33rd	33.4%	66.6%	Ted Lieu
34th	15.7%	84.3%	Jimmy Gomez
35th	37.6%	62.4%	Norma Torres
36th	45.1%	54.9%	Raul Ruiz
37th	14.4%	85.6%	Karen Bass
38th	34.5%	65.5%	Linda Sánchez
39th	47.7%	52.3%	Young Kim
40th	21.3%	78.7%	Lucille Roybal-Allard
41st	42.5%	57.5%	Mark Takano
42nd	59.0%	41.0%	Ken Calvert
43rd	22.8%	77.2%	Maxine Waters
44th	20.0%	80.0%	Nanette Barragán
45th	47.4%	52.6%	Katie Porter
46th	35.7%	64.3%	Lou Correa
47th	37.5%	62.5%	Alan Lowenthal
48th	52.2%	47.8%	Michelle Steel
49th	48.5%	51.5%	Mike Levin
50th	58.7%	41.3%	Darrell Issa
51st	34.6%	65.4%	Juan Vargas
52nd	39.1%	60.9%	Scott Peters
53rd	34.9%	65.1%	Sara Jacobs

On replacement candidates

Elder swept all congressional districts except two, losing to Paffrath in 12th and 13th districts: the latter was the best performance for both Paffrath and Newsom. Conversely, Elder's best result was in the 23rd district, which supported recalling Newsom the most.

District	Elder	Paffrath	Faulconer	Ross	Representative
1st	57.07%	4.44%	4.17%	2.68%	Doug LaMalfa
2nd	38.5%	12.19%	7.57%	7.83%	Jared Huffman
3rd	49.32%	6.04%	6.69%	5.76%	John Garamendi
4th	55.02%	4.67%	7.28%	2.74%	Tom McClintock
5th	39.35%	11.14%	5.96%	7.18%	Mike Thompson
6th	38.75%	11.26%	9.75%	6.26%	Doris Matsui
7th	49.11%	7.71%	8.67%	4.86%	Ami Bera
8th	66.79%	4.45%	4.71%	2.5%	Jay Obernolte
9th	52.46%	6.28%	5.63%	6.47%	Jerry McNerney
10th	57.57%	4.38%	6.46%	5.75%	Josh Harder
11th	35.14%	14.07%	8.39%	7.66%	Mark DeSaulnier
12th	19.82%	21.65%	11.7%	6.8%	Nancy Pelosi
13th	14.65%	24.49%	8.31%	7.47%	Barbara Lee
14th	31.02%	16.88%	8.3%	7.52%	Jackie Speier
15th	36.62%	14.15%	6.81%	6.4%	Eric Swalwell
16th	56.51%	5.49%	4.97%	3.15%	Jim Costa
17th	30.95%	17.39%	6.96%	6.92%	Ro Khanna
18th	31.53%	20.14%	9.63%	6.86%	Anna Eshoo
19th	35.79%	15.05%	5.75%	6.33%	Zoe Lofgren
20th	40.06%	13.24%	4.85%	6.0%	Jimmy Panetta
21st	62.06%	5.29%	4.49%	2.61%	David Valadao
22nd	64.59%	4.72%	7.5%	2.73%	Devin Nunes
23rd	68.27%	4.44%	4.78%	1.61%	Kevin McCarthy
24th	51.41%	10.69%	6.66%	3.51%	Salud Carbajal
25th	60.07%	5.92%	6.16%	3.45%	Mike Garcia
26th	54.97%	8.22%	7.83%	4.07%	Julia Brownley
27th	45.39%	9.48%	10.45%	7.51%	Judy Chu
28th	39.36%	12.99%	9.72%	6.99%	Adam Schiff
29th	37.1%	10.46%	5.67%	7.41%	Tony Cárdenas
30th	46.13%	10.44%	9.53%	6.81%	Brad Sherman
31st	58.83%	5.92%	5.92%	4.09%	Pete Aguilar
32nd	49.47%	7.18%	5.95%	9.05%	Grace Napolitano
33rd	46.93%	11.43%	13.37%	5.52%	Ted Lieu
34th	24.59%	13.66%	8.25%	11.51%	Jimmy Gomez
35th	52.46%	7.17%	4.82%	6.73%	Norma Torres
36th	57.48%	6.46%	5.66%	6.1%	Raul Ruiz
37th	26.32%	15.24%	11.14%	15.27%	Karen Bass
38th	50.43%	7.12%	5.28%	12.94%	Linda Sánchez
39th	58.04%	7.15%	7.28%	6.78%	Young Kim
40th	34.86%	9.86%	3.89%	13.74%	Lucille Roybal-Allard
41st	55.31%	7.02%	5.26%	4.22%	Mark Takano
42nd	65.62%	5.16%	6.01%	2.52%	Ken Calvert
43rd	39.44%	11.72%	6.84%	5.68%	Maxine Waters
44th	35.85%	10.45%	3.9%	6.17%	Nanette Barragán
45th	57.5%	9.09%	8.08%	3.52%	Katie Porter
46th	44.63%	10.25%	5.73%	4.35%	Lou Correa
47th	48.67%	9.92%	7.56%	3.72%	Alan Lowenthal
48th	60.31%	7.34%	8.58%	2.77%	Michelle Steel
49th	54.14%	9.15%	12.51%	3.44%	Mike Levin
50th	58.89%	6.27%	11.37%	2.74%	Darrell Issa
51st	40.35%	12.05%	10.79%	5.36%	Juan Vargas
52nd	41.9%	12.53%	19.15%	4.73%	Scott Peters
53rd	40.3%	13.01%	15.1%	4.84%	Sara Jacobs

Aftermath

Turnout and participation

The number of valid votes cast on the recall question (question 1) was vastly greater than the number cast on the replacement question (question 2). The Newsom campaign's official message to voters had been to vote "no" on the recall and to ignore the replacement question.

Commentary after election

In an October 2021 interview with Chuck Todd at the Milken Institute Global Conference, Newsom commented on the personal impact of the recall, saying "it's hard", and that it was the result of "personal stupidity", which "took a life of its own" and was "weaponized" by opponents, and, "I mean, we colored it in. I took responsibility."

Recall candidate Larry Elder's support for the Trump administration, being unpopular among California's electorate, as well as his status as a front-runner and likely gubernatorial replacement if the recall was successful, were reported to have helped Newsom defeat it. Mid-summer polling conducted two months prior to election day suggested a close race. Newsom ultimately defeated the recall with a margin of roughly 24 percent after mobilizing Democrats to vote with a message that framed the race as a referendum on him versus Elder and their pandemic policy proposals. Newsom's campaigning had also invoked Elder's connections to the inner circle of former president Donald Trump, as well as his history of provocative right-wing rhetoric as a radio talk show host. Exit polling suggested the result fell along partisan lines, with 94 percent of self-reported Democrats saying they voted against the recall and 89 percent of self-reported Republicans saying they voted to remove Newsom from office.

The recall was widely invoked following the victory of Republican Glenn Youngkin two months later in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election (where Democrat Joe Biden had won in 2020 by 10 points); Virginia's race featured similar campaigning on education, the pandemic, and former president Trump.

See also

• 1921 North Dakota gubernatorial recall election
• 2003 California gubernatorial recall election
• 2012 Wisconsin gubernatorial recall election
• 2021 United States gubernatorial elections
• 2022 California gubernatorial election

External links

• California recall procedures guide
• Complete list of recall election attempts in California – Secretary of State of California
• Candidates for the 2021 California gubernatorial recall election, official listing

Anti-recall campaign

• Stop the Republican Recall (Archived September 14, 2021, at the Wayback Machine), the official retention campaign for Gavin Newsom

Recall campaign

• Recall Gavin 2020 (Archived September 14, 2021, at the Wayback Machine), the official recall Gavin Newsom campaign

Official candidate campaign websites

• Angelyne (I) for Governor Archived July 24, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
• David Bramante (R) for Governor
• John Cox (R) for Governor Archived June 14, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
• John Drake (D) for Governor Archived July 24, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
• Larry Elder (R) for Governor
• Kevin Faulconer (R) for Governor Archived July 23, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
• Rhonda Furin (R) for Governor
• Ted Gaines (R) for Governor
• Sam Gallucci (R) for Governor Archived May 13, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
• James Hanink (I) for Governor Archived August 7, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
• Jeff Hewitt (L) for Governor
• Caitlyn Jenner (R) for Governor
• Dan Kapelovitz (G) for Governor
• Kevin Kaul (I) for Governor Archived July 24, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
• Kevin Kiley (R) for Governor
• Jenny Rae Le Roux (R) for Governor
• Michael Loebs (I) for Governor Archived May 24, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
• David Lozano (R) for Governor
• Diego Martinez (R) for Governor
• Daniel Mercuri (R) for Governor
• Doug Ose (R) for Governor
• Kevin Paffrath (D) for Governor
• Adam Papagan (I) for Governor Archived July 24, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
• Armando Perez-Serrato (D) for Governor
• Brandon Ross (D) for Governor
• Major Singh (I) for Governor
• Sarah Stephens (R) for Governor
• Joe Symmon (R) for Governor Archived July 24, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
• Anthony Trimino (R) for Governor
• Joel Ventresca (D) for Governor
• Daniel Watts (D) for Governor Archived July 24, 2021, at the Wayback Machine
• Nickolas Wildstar (R) for Governor
• Major Williams (R, Write-in) for Governor Archived April 29, 2021, at the Wayback Machine