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2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico

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Main article: 2024 United States presidential election
2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico
← 2020 November 5, 2024 2028 →
Turnout66.78% (of eligible voters) (Decrease1.89 pp)
 
Nominee Kamala Harris Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state California Florida
Running mate Tim Walz JD Vance
Projected electoral vote 5 0
Popular vote 478,802 423,391
Percentage 51.85% 45.85%
President before election

Joe Biden
Democratic

Elected President

Donald Trump
Republican

Elections in New Mexico
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The 2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. New Mexico voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of New Mexico has five electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state neither gained nor lost a seat.[1]

A Southwestern state, New Mexico has voted for the winner of the popular vote in every presidential election since statehood except for 1976 (backing the losing candidate, Republican Gerald Ford, by merely 2.47% and 10,271 votes) and in addition to its bellwether status is today a moderately blue state. The last Republican to win the state was George W. Bush from neighboring Texas in 2004. Democrats have held all statewide offices since 2019 and Democratic presidential candidates have consistently won the state since 2008.

Before President Joe Biden withdrew, it was considered a battleground state by some.[2][3] However, after incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate, she was favored to keep New Mexico in the blue column.[4][5][6]

Although Harris won New Mexico, her 6-point margin of victory was the worst for a Democratic presidential candidate in the state since John Kerry, who narrowly lost the state to George W. Bush in 2004, and the narrowest Democratic win at this level since Al Gore's 0.06% margin of victory in 2000. Despite this, New Mexico voted 7.7% to the left of the nation in this election, about 1 percent more Democratic than in 2020, during which it voted 6.3% to the left of the nation. Trump flipped majority-Hispanic Socorro County, becoming the first Republican to win the county since George H. W. Bush in 1988.

This is only the second time since statehood that New Mexico voted for the popular vote loser, after 1976, and the first time ever that it voted for a Democrat who lost the popular vote. It is also the second time since statehood that it voted for a different candidate than Nevada, another Southwestern state, after 2000.

Primary elections

[edit]

Democratic primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 New Mexico Democratic presidential primary

The New Mexico Democratic primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in the District of Columbia, Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.

New Mexico Democratic primary, June 4, 2024[7]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Pledged Unpledged Total
Joe Biden (incumbent) 111,049 83.5% 34 34
Uncommitted 12,938 9.7%
Marianne Williamson 8,935 6.7%
Total: 132,922 100.0% 34 11 45

Republican primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 New Mexico Republican presidential primary

The New Mexico Republican primary was held on June 4, 2024, alongside primaries in Montana, New Jersey, and South Dakota.

New Mexico Republican primary, June 4, 2024[8]
Candidate Votes Percentage Actual delegate count
Bound Unbound Total
Donald Trump 78,999 84.5%
Nikki Haley (withdrawn) 8,054 8.6%
Uncommitted 3,130 3.3%
Chris Christie (withdrawn) 2,428 2.6%
Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) 886 0.9%
Total: 93,497 100.00% 22 0 22

Libertarian primary

[edit]
Main article: 2024 Libertarian Party presidential primaries

The New Mexico Libertarian primary was held on June 6, 2024. 9 days after the 2024 Libertarian National Convention was held.[9]

New Mexico Libertarian primary, June 4, 2024
Candidate Votes Percentage
Lars Mapstead 432 56.5%
None of the Above 332 43.5%
Total: 764 100.0%
Source:[10]

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

The following presidential candidates have received ballot access in New Mexico:[11]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[12] Likely D June 12, 2024
Inside Elections[13] Solid D April 26, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[14] Likely D June 29, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[15] Likely D December 14, 2023
CNalysis[16] Very Likely D November 1, 2024
CNN[17] Lean D January 14, 2024
The Economist[18] Likely D August 20, 2024
538[19] Likely D June 11, 2024
NBC News[20] Likely D October 6, 2024
YouGov[21] Safe D October 16, 2024
Split Ticket[22] Likely D November 1, 2024

Polling

[edit]

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Victory Insights[23] November 1–3, 2024 600 (LV) – 49.6% 44.7% 5.7%[b]
SurveyUSA[24][A] October 28–31, 2024 632 (LV) ± 5.5% 50% 44% 6%[c]
Rasmussen Reports (R)[25][B] October 24–26, 2024 749 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 44% 7%[d]
Rasmussen Reports (R)[26][B] September 19−22, 2024 708 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 44% 6%
SurveyUSA[27] September 12–18, 2024 619 (LV) ± 5.4% 50% 42% 8%
September 10, 2024 The presidential debate between Harris and Trump hosted by ABC
August 23, 2024 Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump.
August 22, 2024 Democratic National Convention concludes
Emerson College[28] August 20–22, 2024 956 (RV) ± 3.1% 52% 42% 6%
54%[e] 46% –
August 19, 2024 Democratic National Convention begins

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[29] October 12–14, 2024 382 (LV) – 49% 45% – 2% 1% 3%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[30] September 6–9, 2024 521 (LV) – 49% 44% – 1% 1% 5%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Cornel
West
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Other /
Undecided
Emerson College[31] August 20–22, 2024 956 (RV) ± 3.1% 51% 40% 3% 0% 0% 0% 6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[32] August 12–15, 2024 592 (LV) – 47% 41% 6% – 0% 0% 6%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[33] July 31 – August 3, 2024 493 (LV) – 44% 37% 8% – 0% 0% 11%

Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kamala
Harris
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
Research & Polling Inc.[34][C] October 10–18, 2024 1,024 (LV) ± 3.1% 50% 41% 3% 6%
Research & Polling Inc.[35][C] September 6–13, 2024 532 (LV) ± 4.2% 49% 39% 3% 9%
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
1892 Polling (R)[36][D] June 19–24, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 47% 5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[37][E] June 13–14, 2024 555 (V) ± 4.2% 48% 41% 11%
John Zogby Strategies[38][F] April 13–21, 2024 505 (LV) – 49% 42% 9%
Public Policy Polling (D)[39][E] August 23–24, 2023 767 (RV) ± 3.5% 49% 41% 10%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[40] May 6–8, 2023 500 (LV) – 49% 38% 13%
Emerson College[41] October 25–28, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 38% 14%
Emerson College[42] September 8–11, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 47% 41% 12%

Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver vs. Randall Terry

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Jill
Stein
Green 		Chase
Oliver
Libertarian 		Randall
Terry
Constitution 		Other /
Undecided
1892 Polling (R)[36][D] June 19–24, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 43% 42% 8% 3% 2% 1% 3%
Hypothetical polling with other candidates

Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[38][F] April 13–21, 2024 505 (LV) – 41% 46% 13%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Robert F.
Kennedy Jr.
Independent 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
John Zogby Strategies[38][F] April 13–21, 2024 505 (LV) – 46% 36% 18%

Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Ron
DeSantis
Republican 		Other /
Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[39] August 23–24, 2023 767 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 43% 9%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[40] May 6–8, 2023 500 (LV) – 45% 43% 12%

Results

[edit]
2024 United States presidential election in New Mexico[43][44][45]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
478,802 51.85 −2.44
Republican
423,391 45.85 +2.35
Independent
9,553 1.04 N/A
Green
4,611 0.50 +0.02
Free New Mexico
3,745 0.41 −0.95
Socialism and Liberation
2,442 0.26 +0.08
Liberal
859 0.09% N/A
Total votes 923,403 100.0%
Democratic win

By county

[edit]
County Kamala Harris
Democratic 		Donald Trump
Republican 		Various candidates
Other parties 		Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Bernalillo 184,117 59.23% 118,762 38.24% 7,965 2.56% 65,255 20.99% 310,844
Catron 571 24.23% 1,752 74.33% 31 1.44% -1,181 -50.10% 2,354
Chaves 5,941 26.76% 15,894 71.59% 365 1.65% -9,953 -44.83% 22,200
Cibola 4,450 49.57% 4,311 48.02% 216 2.51% 139 1.55% 8,903
Colfax 2,436 41.91% 3,252 55.94% 125 2.15% -816 -14.03% 5,813
Curry 4,230 27.79% 10,714 70.38% 299 1.83% -6,484 -42.59% 15,223
De Baca 206 23.57% 649 74.26% 12 1.37% -43 -50.69% 901
Dona Ana 47,937 53.79% 37,594 44.02% 1,882 2.19% 10,343 9.77% 85,407
Eddy 5,032 21.44% 18,131 77.29% 299 1.27% -13,099 -55.85% 23,472
Grant 7,590 52.58% 6,553 45.40% 292 2.02% 1,037 7.18% 14,435
Guadalupe 959 49.48% 945 48.76% 24 1.76% 14 0.72% 1,928
Harding 128 29.70% 297 68.91% 7 1.39% -169 -39.21% 431
Hidalgo 705 37.86% 1,140 61.22% 16 0.92% -405 -23.36% 1,861
Lea 4,061 18.53% 16,997 80.14% 282 1.33% -12,936 -61.61% 21,209
Lincoln 3,033 29.84% 6,942 68.29% 210 1.87% -3,909 -38.45% 10,165
Los Alamos 7,726 61.45% 4,047 34.80% 461 3.75% 3,679 26.65% 12,187
Luna 3,176 39.42% 4,698 58.32% 182 2.26% -1,522 -18.90% 8,056
McKinley 15,711 60.74% 9,364 36.20% 792 3.06% 6,347 24.54% 25,867
Mora 1,439 57.86% 1,010 40.61% 30 1.53% 329 17.25% 2,487
Otero 8,582 35.40% 14,117 62.36% 75 2.24% -5,535 -26.96% 24,242
Quay 1,055 28.48% 2,570 69.38% 69 2.14% -1,515 -40.90% 3,700
Rio Arriba 9,373 58.62% 6,268 39.20% 248 1.39% 3,105 19.42% 15,989
Roosevelt 1,820 27.41% 4,687 70.60% 132 1.99% -2,867 -43.19% 6,639
San Juan 17,464 33.00% 34,264 64.74% 1,198 2.26% -16,800 -31.74% 52,926
San Miguel 6,985 62.88% 3,887 34.99% 236 1.92% 3,098 27.89% 11,108
Sandoval 41,205 51.80% 36,605 46.02% 1,730 0.97% 4,600 6.99% 79,540
Santa Fe 61,405 73.35% 20,457 24.34% 1,857 2.31% 40,948 49.01% 83,719
Sierra 2,265 38.10% 3,542 59.58% 138 2.32% -1,277 -21.48% 5,953
Socorro 3,384 46.79% 3,651 50.48% 198 2.73% -267 -3.69% 7,233
Taos 12,038 72.36% 4,139 24.88% 459 2.76% 7,899 47.48% 16,636
Torrance 2,144 29.86% 4,880 67.98% 155 2.16% -2,736 -38.12% 7,179
Union 378 22.70% 1,247 74.89% 38 2.41% -869 -52.19% 1,663
Valencia 13,609 40.90% 19,057 57.27% 611 1.83% -5,448 -16.37% 33,277
Total 501,614 51.85% 401,894 45.85% 21,210 2.30% 55,411 6.00% 923,403
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Harris won 2 of 3 congressional districts, with Trump winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat.[46][user-generated source]

District Harris Trump Representative Cook PVI
1st 56.10% 43.16% Melanie Stansbury D+6
2nd 48.33% 50.25% Gabe Vasquez R+1
3rd 51.67% 46.83% Teresa Leger Fernandez D+2

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ "Other" with 5.7%
  3. ^ "Other" with 3%
  4. ^ "Other" with 4%
  5. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  6. ^ a b The Free New Mexico Party is the state affiliate of the national Libertarian Party, which nominated Oliver and ter Maat. The Libertarian Party of New Mexico, which separated from the national party in 2022 and is now affiliated to Liberal Party USA, nominated Ebke and Butler.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ Poll sponsored by KOB-TV
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by American Thinker
  3. ^ a b Poll conducted for the Albuquerque Journal
  4. ^ a b Poll commissioned by the National Republican Senatorial Committee
  5. ^ a b Poll commissioned by the New Mexico Political Report
  6. ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
  2. ^ Plummer, Kate (July 3, 2024). "Joe Biden's Lead Wiped Out in Critical Battleground States". Newsweek. Retrieved September 29, 2024.
  3. ^ "2022 Cook PVI℠: District Map and List". July 12, 2022.
  4. ^ Heild, Colleen (July 21, 2024). "New Mexico political battleground shifts with Biden exit". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved September 29, 2024.
  5. ^ "2024 New Mexico: Multi-Candidate". RealClearPolling. Retrieved September 29, 2024.
  6. ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 28, 2024.
  7. ^ "New Mexico Democratic Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
  8. ^ "New Mexico Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved July 12, 2024.
  9. ^ "Become Ungovernable". 2024 Libertarian National Convention. Retrieved June 22, 2024.
  10. ^ "Unofficial Results 2024 Primary June 4, 2024". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved June 22, 2024.
  11. ^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  12. ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  13. ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  14. ^ "2024 Electoral College ratings". centerforpolitics.org. University of Virginia Center for Politics. June 29, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  15. ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
  16. ^ "2024 Presidential Forecast". projects.cnalysis.com/. CNalysis. December 30, 2023. Retrieved November 1, 2024.
  17. ^ "Electoral College map 2024: Road to 270". CNN. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  18. ^ "Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model". The Economist. Retrieved June 12, 2024.
  19. ^ Morris, G. Elliott (June 11, 2024). "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved June 11, 2024.
  20. ^ "Presidential Election Preview 2024". NBC News.
  21. ^ "2024 Presidential Election Polls". YouGov.
  22. ^ "2024 Presidential Forcast". Split Ticket. June 2, 2023.
  23. ^ "HARRIS LEADS TRUMP BY 4.8% IN FINAL NEW MEXICO POLL OF 2024" (PDF). Victory Insights. November 4, 2024. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
  24. ^ "Democrat Kamala Harris 6 Points Atop Republican Donald Trump in New Mexico As Former President Campaigns in Albuquerque". SurveyUSA. October 31, 2024. Retrieved November 1, 2024.
  25. ^ "Election 2024: Trump Leads in Georgia, Arizona; Harris +5 in New Mexico". Rasmussen Reports. October 31, 2024.
  26. ^ "Election 2024: Trump +1 in Nevada; Harris +3 in Minnesota, +6 in New Mexico". Rasmussen Reports. September 27, 2024.
  27. ^ "Kamala Harris 8 Points Atop Donald Trump in Land of Enchantment, Poised To Keep New Mexico Blue For 5th Consecutive Presidential Election". SurveyUSA. September 19, 2024. Retrieved September 24, 2024.
  28. ^ "New Mexico 2024: Harris 52%, Trump 42%". Emerson College Polling. August 23, 2024.
  29. ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (12 – 14 October 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. October 16, 2024.
  30. ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (6 – 9 September 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. September 10, 2024.
  31. ^ "New Mexico 2024: Harris 52%, Trump 42%". Emerson College Polling. August 23, 2024.
  32. ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (12 – 15 August 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. August 19, 2024.
  33. ^ "Latest US Swing States Voting Intention (31 July – 3 August 2024)". Redfield & Wilton Strategies. August 6, 2024.
  34. ^ Boyd, Dan (October 21, 2024). "Journal Poll: Kamala Harris maintains advantage over Donald Trump in New Mexico". The Albuquerque Journal.
  35. ^ Boyd, Dan (September 15, 2024). "Journal Poll: Kamala Harris comfortably ahead of Donald Trump in New Mexico". The Albuquerque Journal.
  36. ^ a b "Hotline - Wake-Up Call!". National Journal. July 1, 2024.
  37. ^ Reichbach, Matthew (June 18, 2024). "Post-primary, Biden leads Trump in NM". New Mexico Political Report.
  38. ^ a b c "Biden Is the Real Spoiler, Kennedy Only Candidate Who Can Beat Trump". Kennedy24. May 1, 2024.
  39. ^ a b Reichbach, Matthew (August 28, 2023). "Biden leads in NM in potential 2024 matchups". New Mexico Political Report.
  40. ^ a b "DeSantis is tied with Biden in Virginia and within striking distance of the President in three other '24 "reach" states. Trump is poised to lose these four states for a third time". X. May 12, 2023.
  41. ^ Mumford, Camille (October 31, 2022). "New Mexico 2022: Lujan Grisham and Ronchetti in Dead Heat for Gubernatorial Election". Emerson Polling.
  42. ^ Mumford, Camille (September 14, 2022). "New Mexico 2022: Democratic Governor Lujan Grisham Holds Five-Point Lead Over Ronchetti in Gubernatorial Election". Emerson Polling.
  43. ^ "The Green Papers: 2024 Presidential Candidate Ballot Access by State". www.thegreenpapers.com. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  44. ^ "Ballot-Qualified Libertarian Party of New Mexico Nominates Laura Ebke for President". ballot-access.org. August 31, 2024. Retrieved September 24, 2024.
  45. ^ "Federal". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved November 16, 2024.
  46. ^ "2024 Pres by CD".
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