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2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

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2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election

← 2022 November 5, 2024 2026 →
 
Nominee Kelly Ayotte Joyce Craig
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 436,122 360,149
Percentage 53.61% 44.27%

Ayotte:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Craig:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      >90%

Governor before election

Chris Sununu
Republican

Elected Governor

Kelly Ayotte
Republican

The 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election was held on November 5, 2024, to elect the governor of New Hampshire. Republican former U.S. Senator Kelly Ayotte and Democratic former Manchester mayor Joyce Craig sought their first term in office. Ayotte won the election, and will succeed incumbent Republican Chris Sununu, who did not seek election to a fifth term.[1] Along with neighboring Vermont, this race was one of two Republican-held governorships up for election in 2024 in a state Joe Biden won in the 2020 presidential election.

Primary elections took place on September 10, 2024.[2] Ayotte won the Republican nomination with 63% of the vote over former state senate president Chuck Morse and Craig won the Democratic nomination with 48% of the vote over state executive councilor Cinde Warmington.

Republican Kelly Ayotte won the election by 9.34%, with the state concurrently voting for Kamala Harris in the 2024 United States presidential election in New Hampshire. The election was the closest gubernatorial race for a U.S. state in the 2024 cycle.

Background

[edit]

New Hampshire is a blue leaning state in New England, with a pattern of split-ticket voting. Incumbent Republican governor Chris Sununu was narrowly elected in the 2016 New Hampshire gubernatorial election, and easily won re-election in the 2020 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. This was despite Donald Trump losing the state in both 2016 (by 0.37%) and 2020 (by 7.35%). Republican gubernatorial nominee Kelly Ayotte narrowly lost re-election in the 2016 United States Senate election in New Hampshire by 0.14%.

This race was widely considered a tossup, due to the incumbent retiring, the state's pattern of ticket splitting, and the concurrent 2024 presidential election.[3]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Shaun Fife, farmer[5]
  • Robert McClory, welder[6]
  • Richard McMenamon, auto repair shop owner and candidate for governor in 2022[7]
  • Chuck Morse, former president of the New Hampshire Senate, former acting governor, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[8]
  • Frank Staples, transitional living program owner[6]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Kelly Ayotte

U.S. senators

Governors

State legislators

Individuals

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of September 4, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Kelly Ayotte (R) $7,301,915 $5,499,318 $1,677,858
Chuck Morse (R) $1,513,599 $1,472,846 $40,753
Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System[21]

Debates

[edit]
Date Host Ayotte Morse Link
August 26, 2024 N.H. Institute of Politics Participant Participant YouTube
September 3, 2024 WMUR-TV Participant Participant YouTube

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Ayotte
Chuck
Morse
Undecided
University of New Hampshire[22] August 15–19, 2024 915 (LV) ± 3.2% 65% 21% 13%[b]
Saint Anselm College[23] August 13–14, 2024 657 (LV) ± 3.8% 59% 25% 16%
Emerson College[24][A] July 26–28, 2024 421 (RV) ± 4.7% 41% 26% 33%
Praecones Analytica[25][B] May 15–20, 2024 420 (RV) ± 6.42% 50% 28% 22%
UMass Lowell[26] January 6–16, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.65% 54% 22% 23%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Ayotte
Robert
Burns
Frank
Edelblut
Chuck
Morse
Other Undecided
Emerson College[27] August 9–11, 2023 498 (RV) ± 4.9% 45% 3% 4% 9% 3% 35%
co/efficient[28][B] June 14–16, 2023 904 (LV) ± 3.25% 69% 9% 22%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Ayotte
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%

Ayotte secured a major[29] victory over Morse, winning almost two thirds of the vote. She performed the best in Sullivan County in the southwest of the state, earning 74% of the vote. Conversely, she recorded her worst result in Rockingham County in the southeast, receiving just 54.7% of the vote.[30]

Republican primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kelly Ayotte 88,117 63.12%
Republican Chuck Morse 47,567 34.07%
Republican Shaun Fife 876 0.63%
Write-in 867 0.62%
Republican Robert McClory 839 0.60%
Republican Frank Staples 809 0.58%
Republican Richard McMenamon 527 0.38%
Total votes 139,602 100.00%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Joyce Craig

Governors

U.S. representatives

New Hampshire cabinet officials

Judicial officials

State legislators

Local officials

Party officials

Other officials

Labor unions

Cinde Warmington

Governors

U.S. representatives

State officials

State legislators

Local officials

Labor unions

Debates

[edit]
2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial Democratic primary debate
No. Date Host Moderator Link Democratic Democratic Democratic
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Craig Warmington Kiper
1 Sep. 4, 2024 WMUR-TV Adam Sexton YouTube P P P

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of August 20, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Joyce Craig (D) $2,976,496 $2,630,738 $342,052
Cinde Warmington (D) $2,287,849 $2,135,285 $152,564
Jon Kiper (D) $58,277 $55,985 $1,443
Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System[21]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Joyce
Craig
Cinde
Warmington
Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire[22] August 15–19, 2024 809 (LV) ± 3.4% 39% 30% 8%[c] 23%
Saint Anselm College[23] August 13–14, 2024 670 (LV) ± 3.8% 37% 28% 3%[d] 31%
Emerson College[24][A] July 26–28, 2024 433 (RV) ± 4.7% 33% 21% 44%
GBAO[50][C] February 22–26, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 37% 25% 39%
Emerson College[27] August 9–11, 2023 837 (RV) ± 3.4% 30% 15% 2% 52%

Results

[edit]
Primary results by county (left) and municipality (right).
  Craig
  •   30-40%
      40–50%
  •   50–60%
      60–70%
      70–80%
      80–90%
      >90%
  Warmington
  •   30-40%
      40–50%
  •   50–60%
      60–70%
      70–80%
      80–90%
  Kiper
  •   40–50%
  Tie
  •   40–50%
      No Votes
Democratic primary results[31]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Joyce Craig 59,976 47.88%
Democratic Cinde Warmington 52,420 41.85%
Democratic Jon Kiper 11,789 9.41%
Write-in 1,076 0.86%
Total votes 125,261 100.00%

Third parties and independent candidates

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Declared

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[52] Tossup October 15, 2024
Inside Elections[53] Tossup September 26, 2024
Sabato's Crystal Ball[54] Lean R November 4, 2024
RCP[55] Tossup October 1, 2024
Elections Daily[56] Lean R November 4, 2024
CNalysis[57] Tilt R November 1, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Joyce Craig (D)

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of November 5, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Kelly Ayotte (R) $21,005,579 $18,668,848 $2,204,119
Joyce Craig (D) $7,346,371 $6,827,299 $515,368
Source: New Hampshire Campaign Finance System[21]

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Kelly
Ayotte (R)
Joyce
Craig (D)
Undecided
[e]
Margin
RealClearPolitics[61] October 21 – November 2, 2024 November 3, 2024 46.8% 44.3% 8.9% Ayotte +2.5%
270toWin[62] October 24 – November 3, 2024 November 3, 2024 47.0% 44.0% 9.0% Ayotte +3.0%
Average 46.9% 44.2% 8.9% Ayotte +2.7%
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Ayotte (R)
Joyce
Craig (D)
Others Undecided
Dartmouth College[63] November 1–3, 2024 587 (LV) ± 4.0% 40% 58% 2%[f]
University of New Hampshire[64] October 29 – November 2, 2024 2,814 (LV) ± 1.9% 48% 44% 1%[g] 6%
Saint Anselm College[65] October 28–29, 2024 2,791 (LV) ± 1.9% 49% 46% 2%[h] 3%
Praecones Analytica[66][B] October 24–26, 2024 622 (RV) ± 3.9% 52% 48%
Emerson College[67][A] October 21–23, 2024 915 (LV) ± 3.2% 50% 46% 5%[i]
46% 43% 4%[j] 7%
UMass Lowell/YouGov[68] October 10–23, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 43% 4%[k] 8%
Dartmouth College[69] October 5–18, 2024 2,196 (RV) ± 2.1% 46% 51% 3%[l]
UMass Lowell/YouGov[70] October 2–10, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.8% 42% 41% 4%[m] 14%
Saint Anselm College[71] October 1–2, 2024 2,104 (LV) ± 2.1% 47% 44% 3%[n] 6%
University of New Hampshire[72] September 12–16, 2024 1,695 (LV) ± 2.4% 46% 47% 1%[o] 5%
Saint Anselm College[73] September 11–12, 2024 2,241 (LV) ± 2.1% 46% 43% 5%[p] 6%
September 10, 2024 Primary elections held
Emerson College[74][A] November 10–13, 2023 917 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 40% 17%
Emerson College[27] August 9–11, 2023 837 (RV) ± 3.4% 46% 37% 17%
Hypothetical polling

Kelly Ayotte vs. Cinde Warmington

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Kelly
Ayotte (R)
Cinde
Warmington (D)
Undecided
Emerson College[74][A] November 10–13, 2023 917 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 37% 19%
Emerson College[27] August 9–11, 2023 837 (RV) ± 3.4% 47% 34% 19%

Results

[edit]
2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election[75][76]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Kelly Ayotte 436,122 53.61% −3.37%
Democratic Joyce Craig 360,149 44.27% +2.80%
Libertarian Stephen Villee 16,202 1.99% N/A
Write-in 1,024 0.13% -0.15%
Total votes 813,497 100.00% N/A
Turnout 832,518
Registered electors
Republican hold

Notes

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  1. ^ a b c d e Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Shaun Fife, Robert McClory, and Richard McMenamon with 0%
  3. ^ Jon Kiper with 8%
  4. ^ Jon Kiper with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
  5. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. ^ "Another Candidate" with 2%
  7. ^ Villee (L) with 1%
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  9. ^ Villee (L) with 5%
  10. ^ Villee (L) with 4%
  11. ^ Villee (L) with 3%; "Another Candidate" with 1%
  12. ^ "Another Candidate" with 3%
  13. ^ Stephen Ville with 3% and "Another candidate" with 1%
  14. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  15. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%; Stephen Villee (L) with 0%
  16. ^ Someone else with 5%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by WHDH-TV
  2. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by the NH Journal
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by Warmington's campaign

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "Chris Sununu will not run for re-election for fifth term as New Hampshire governor". CBS News. July 19, 2023. Retrieved July 19, 2023.
  2. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". NCSL. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
  3. ^ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  4. ^ "Former Sen. Kelly Ayotte wins GOP primary for New Hampshire governor". The Hill. September 11, 2024. Retrieved September 11, 2024.
  5. ^ Sexton, Adam (June 5, 2024). "Republican Shaun Fife files to run for New Hampshire governor". WMUR-TV. Retrieved June 5, 2024.
  6. ^ a b "Democratic cumulative filing as of 06/12/24" (PDF). Office of the Secretary of State – Election Division.
  7. ^ "2024 Election Details". New Hampshire Secretary of State. June 5, 2024.
  8. ^ Tasolides, Justin (July 19, 2023). "N.H. GOP Gov. Sununu says he will not seek fifth term". Spectrum News. Retrieved July 19, 2023.
  9. ^ Porter, Steven (April 20, 2023). "Who will run for New Hampshire governor if Chris Sununu runs for president?". Boston Globe.
  10. ^ Kashinsky, Lisa (August 3, 2023). "Scott Brown isn't done yet". Politico. Retrieved August 3, 2023.
  11. ^ Dawg, Jay (April 4, 2023). "Edelblut Considering A Run For Governor". The Pulse of NH.
  12. ^ Edelblut, Frank (September 3, 2023). "America the beautiful. New Hampshire the crown jewel". New Hampshire Union Leader. Retrieved September 3, 2023. I have decided that I will not be running in this cycle.
  13. ^ "Chris Sununu will not run for re-election for fifth term as New Hampshire governor". CBS News. July 19, 2023. Retrieved July 19, 2023.
  14. ^ a b Vakil, Caroline (August 7, 2024). "Sununu backs Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire GOP gubernatorial primary". The Hill. Retrieved August 7, 2024.
  15. ^ a b Wagner, John (July 24, 2023). "Former GOP senator Kelly Ayotte to run for New Hampshire governor". The Washington Post. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  16. ^ Tenser, Phil (July 24, 2023). "Kelly Ayotte announces 2024 campaign for New Hampshire governor". WCVB-TV 5. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
  17. ^ Sylvia, Andrew (September 8, 2023). "Levasseur, Manchester's GOP State Reps, endorse Ayotte". Manchester Ink Link. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
  18. ^ Robidoux, Carol (August 22, 2023). "Ayotte endorsed by Merrimack Republican delegation". Manchester Ink Link. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
  19. ^ Bolduc, Don (June 26, 2024). "BOLDUC: Why I'm Endorsing Ayotte for Governor". NH Journal.
  20. ^ "Rico Petrocelli endorses Ayotte". November 28, 2023. Retrieved November 29, 2023.
  21. ^ a b c "Candidates and Candidate Committees". New Hampshire Campaign Finance System.
  22. ^ a b University of New Hampshire
  23. ^ a b Saint Anselm College
  24. ^ a b Emerson College
  25. ^ Praecones Analytica
  26. ^ UMass Lowell
  27. ^ a b c d Emerson College
  28. ^ co/efficient
  29. ^ Yurow, Jeremy; Cullen, Margie (September 10, 2024). "Kelly Ayotte, Joyce Craig advance to November showdown in New Hampshire governor race". USA Today. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  30. ^ "New Hampshire Governor election results". Politico. Retrieved September 13, 2024.
  31. ^ a b "2024 State Primary Election Results". New Hampshire Secretary of State.
  32. ^ Sexton, Adam (July 11, 2023). "Manchester Mayor Craig officially launches campaign for governor". WMUR. Retrieved July 11, 2023.
  33. ^ Schinella, Tony (November 24, 2023). "Seacoast Restauranter Becomes Third NH Democrat To Run For Governor". Patch Media. Retrieved December 7, 2023.
  34. ^ Sexton, Adam (June 1, 2023). "NH Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington launches campaign for governor". WMUR. Retrieved June 1, 2023.
  35. ^ Wolf, Stephen (July 20, 2023). "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 7/20". Daily Kos. Retrieved July 20, 2023. Democratic Rep. Annie Kuster quickly ruled out running for governor next year following GOP Gov. Chris Sununu's Wednesday announcement that he wouldn't seek reelection
  36. ^ DeWitt, Ethan (November 14, 2022). "After six-year battle to oust Sununu, Democrats fall short again". New Hampshire Bulletin.
  37. ^ Porter, Steven (April 20, 2023). "Who will run for New Hampshire governor if Chris Sununu runs for president?". The Boston Globe. Retrieved July 19, 2023.
  38. ^ Porter, Steve (May 1, 2023). "Outgoing mayor of Manchester, N.H., launches exploratory committee for 2024 governor's race". Boston Globe. Former state senator Dr. Tom Sherman, who ran for governor in 2022 and who some had said could run again, told the Globe on Monday that he won't run for governor in 2024.
  39. ^ a b c d Steinhauser, Paul (May 1, 2023). "Craig launches gubernatorial exploratory committee". Concord Monitor. Retrieved June 3, 2023.
  40. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Robidoux, Carol (August 20, 2023). "Craig campaign announces 160 new endorsements". Manchester Ink Link. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
  41. ^ a b c Sylvia, Andrew (October 27, 2023). "Craig endorsed by Dr. Tom Sherman". Manchester Ink Link. Retrieved October 27, 2023.
  42. ^ Landrigan, Kevin (January 29, 2024). "Donchess backs Craig for governor". UnionLeader.com. Retrieved January 29, 2024.
  43. ^ Robidoux, Carol (October 3, 2023). "Nashua Teachers' Union Endorses Joyce Craig for Governor". Manchester Ink Link. Retrieved October 3, 2023.
  44. ^ Landrigan, Kevin (August 31, 2023). "Craig endorsed by Teamsters Local 633 in gubernatorial race". New Hampshire Union Leader. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
  45. ^ "Howard Dean endorses Cinde Warmington". Manchester Ink Link. February 10, 2024. Retrieved February 10, 2024.
  46. ^ Bookman, Todd (June 1, 2023). "Executive Councilor Cinde Warmington announces campaign for NH governor". New Hampshire Public Radio. Retrieved June 2, 2023.
  47. ^ a b c d e f Scacchi, Mitchell (June 1, 2023). "Exec Councilor Warmington Enters Gov's Race, Likely to Face Craig in Primary". New Hampshire Journal. Retrieved June 2, 2023.
  48. ^ "NH State Employees Throw Support Behind Cinde Warmington in Democratic Gubernatorial Primary – SEA/SEIU DEV". SEA/SEIU DEV –. February 29, 2024. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
  49. ^ GBAO
  50. ^ NH Secretary of State's Office. "DECLARATIONS OF INTENT FILED – 2024" (PDF). Retrieved July 14, 2024. Governor Stephen Villee
  51. ^ "2024 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  52. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  53. ^ "2024 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  54. ^ "2024 Governor Races". www.realclearpolling.com. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
  55. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. July 22, 2023. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
  56. ^ "Governor Forecasts". CNalysis. Retrieved August 17, 2024.
  57. ^ Kelly, Laura (September 10, 2024). "DGA Statement on Joyce Craig's Primary Victory in New Hampshire". DGA. Democratic Governors Association. Retrieved September 18, 2024.
  58. ^ Mackler, Jessica (September 16, 2024). "EMILYs List Endorses Joyce Craig for Governor of New Hampshire". EMILYs List. Retrieved September 18, 2024.
  59. ^ "Planned Parenthood NH Action Fund PAC Endorses Governor and Executive Council Candidates Who Will Protect and Expand Access to Reproductive Health Care". Planned Parenthood New Hampshire Action Fund. September 12, 2024. Retrieved September 18, 2024.
  60. ^ RealClearPolitics
  61. ^ 270toWin
  62. ^ Dartmouth College
  63. ^ University of New Hampshire
  64. ^ Saint Anselm College
  65. ^ Praecones Analytica
  66. ^ Emerson College
  67. ^ UMass Lowell/YouGov
  68. ^ Dartmouth College
  69. ^ UMass Lowell/YouGov
  70. ^ Saint Anselm College
  71. ^ University of New Hampshire
  72. ^ Saint Anselm College
  73. ^ a b Emerson College
  74. ^ https://www.sos.nh.gov/sites/g/files/ehbemt561/files/inline-documents/sonh/2024-ge-governor_3.xls
  75. ^ https://www.sos.nh.gov/sites/g/files/ehbemt561/files/inline-documents/sonh/2024-ge-ballots-cast_6.xls
[edit]

Official campaign websites