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2024 United States Senate election in New Jersey

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2024 United States Senate election in New Jersey
← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
Reporting
98%
as of Nov. 20, 3:15 PM EST
 
Nominee Andy Kim Curtis Bashaw
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 2,159,141 1,772,206
Percentage 53.60% 44.00%
County results
Kim:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Bashaw:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. senator before election

George Helmy
Democratic

Elected U.S. senator

Andy Kim
Democratic

Elections in New Jersey
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Mayoral elections

The 2024 United States Senate election in New Jersey was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Jersey. Democratic Congressman Andy Kim defeated Republican real estate developer Curtis Bashaw in the general election with about 53 percent of the vote. Kim will succeed Democratic interim appointee George Helmy, who is serving as a caretaker for Democrat Bob Menendez's third term. Kim will assume office in late November after the election is certified in order to give an advantage in seniority.[1][2]

Menendez, who had represented New Jersey in the senate since 2006, began to face an uncertain political future after he was indicted for federal corruption charges in 2023, his second such indictment.[3] Amid questions over whether Menendez would seek a fourth term, a contentious Democratic primary took place between Kim and First Lady of New Jersey Tammy Murphy that was marked by allegations of nepotism and party favoritism towards Murphy. In March, Menendez announced he would not seek the Democratic nomination and Murphy withdrew from the race, leaving Kim as the only major Democratic candidate.[4][5] Menendez filed to run as an independent ahead of the June primaries, but after being convicted of federal corruption the following month, he ended his candidacy and resigned from the Senate.[6][7][8]

In the June 4 primary, Kim won the Democratic nomination with 75% of the vote. Bashaw won the Republican nomination with 45% of the vote, defeating Mendham Borough Mayor Christine Serrano Glassner, who was endorsed by former president Donald Trump and his allies. Kim is slated to be the first person of Korean descent in the Senate, as well as the first Asian American to represent New Jersey in the Senate, as well as the person from South Jersey to represent the state in the Senate since 1955. Kim flipped Gloucester County and narrowly held Passaic County, both of which voted for Republican candidate Donald Trump in the simultaneous presidential election. Cumberland County voted Republican in a Senate election for the first time since 1972, and the first time in this seat since 1952. This was the closest Senate election in the state since 2006.

Democratic primary

[edit]

Background

[edit]

In 2023, incumbent three-term Democrat Bob Menendez was indicted on federal corruption charges that he aided and provided sensitive information to the Egyptian government.[9][10] Menendez was previously indicted on federal corruption charges in 2015 for bribery, fraud, and making false statements;[11] the charges were dropped in 2018 after the jury was unable to reach a verdict and he was re-elected to a third term the same year.[12][13] Amid calls from several prominent Democrats to resign, Menendez did not seek the Democratic nomination, but filed to run for re-election as an independent.[14][15] Menendez was found guilty of federal corruption in July.[6]

Following Menendez's 2023 indictment, two prominent Democrats announced their Senate candidacy: U.S. Representative Andy Kim and First Lady of New Jersey Tammy Murphy.[16][17] The primary between Murphy and Kim was seen as competitive, as even though Kim led comfortably in polls, Murphy had received significant party support and the county line endorsements in many heavily populated counties along with endorsements from many county party chairs and from New Jersey Democratic Party chair LeRoy J. Jones Jr. Kim, however, had received support from many national and progressive Democrats such as Pennsylvania Senator John Fetterman, the College Democrats of America, and the College Democrats of New Jersey. Murphy announced her withdrawal from the race on March 24, citing poor polling.[18]

Allegations of nepotism

[edit]
Tammy Murphy in 2021

Murphy's candidacy had given rise to allegations of cronyism and nepotism due to her being the wife of incumbent Governor Phil Murphy. Critics argued that since her husband is the head of the New Jersey Democratic Party, it would have ensured her victory.[19] These accusations grew after she entered into the race as the chairs of the Hudson, Camden, Bergen, Somerset, Essex,[a] and Middlesex county Democratic organizations endorsed Murphy; these represent 40% of Democratic voters in New Jersey. Candidates in New Jersey who receive the endorsement of county chairs are often placed in a premier position of the primary election ballot, bracketed with other endorsed candidates, called the "party" or "county line." Candidates who are "on the line" typically win the June primary.[20]

Murphy had responded to questions about her qualification for office due to not having been elected to office before and her previously being a registered Republican as being sexist, saying: "I'm not sure a male would be asked this question."[21] At a candidate forum at the County College of Morris in January 2024, Murphy was asked to address the "elephant in the room" about her perceived advantage as the wife of Governor Phil Murphy. She replied that she was "honored and thrilled" to receive endorsements from New Jersey Democrats, who endorsed her "not because my husband asked them, but because I asked them. They know me."[22] She promised to "earn every vote" and to listen to "not only the people who are with me, but both sides, and not just seeing through one lens". A number of members of Congress who had endorsed her have also said they endorsed her over Kim because she asked, and because of her work for women's health, children, and seniors.[23]

Endorsement controversies

[edit]

On December 24, 2023, Mountainside Democratic Municipal Chair and former NOW-NJ President Anjali Mehrotra announced that she would support Kim. However, she later retracted this statement, deciding to back Murphy's campaign and criticize Kim's candidacy.[24]

On January 10, 2024, the College Democrats of New Jersey (CDNJ) in conjunction with the College Democrats of America (CDA) endorsed Kim.[25] Four days later, it was revealed that, before the CDNJ announced their endorsement of Kim, they received a call from a college student who serves as the Youth Coordinator for the state party. In the call, the staffer asked the CDNJ to cancel the group's endorsement of Kim, expressing concerns over CDNJ members' future job prospects and funding.[26]

The staffer would later say that while Murphy's campaign had not asked her to pressure the group on their behalf, but had wanted "to do something to prevent the endorsement." Murphy's campaign responded, saying the staffer's comments were "totally and completely inappropriate, and they in no way represent this campaign or what we stand for," and adding that the staffer had no connection to Murphy's campaign.[27] The Murphy campaign also said that all of the students involved in this "unfortunate situation" should be afforded the "grace, allowance and forgiveness that we all deserve at that age." Tammy Murphy, meanwhile, called the College Democrats of New Jersey's vice president to apologize.[28] Kim responded on X (Twitter) saying in part, "This is why people lose faith in democracy and our system.[29] On January 17, the CDA called on the national Democratic National Committee to open an investigation into what happened between the state party and Murphy's campaign, while reaffirming their support for Kim saying: "We will not be intimidated or silenced by those who seek to undermine our values and our vision for a more just and equitable world."[30]

On February 5, 2024, the Murphy campaign unveiled a large list of endorsements from Monmouth County Democratic officials.[31] However, later that day, multiple people whose names were on the list denied ever having endorsed her, with many still claiming that they were neutral in the race.[32] Despite his neutrality the day before, Bradley Beach Democratic Municipal Chair Steve Lozowick changed course again on February 6, announcing his support for Murphy.[33]

On March 16, 2024, Murphy was endorsed by the Camden County Democratic Committee, having already received the support of powerbroker George Norcross. However, at the committee meeting (which was largely just a formality due to the county's lack of an open convention), candidate Patricia Campos-Medina was denied entry, being physically barred by multiple guards.[34] This incident led to a condemnation by Kim (who had also been denied access after requesting speaking time prior to the event), while Murphy stated that "You'll have to talk to Camden" when asked about the incident.[35] Murphy's response to the incident, along with other alleged concerns, led to Jersey City mayor Steven Fulop pulling his support for Murphy the following day and backing Kim, according to Fulop.[36]

On March 17, 2024, the Hoboken Democrats voted to endorse Kim for Senate.[37] Shortly after, chair Rachel Hodes resigned, stating that she has been receiving pressure since February by officials from both the Murphy and Menendez campaigns, as well as the Hudson County Democratic Organization, to change the Hoboken endorsement process as a way to prevent a Kim endorsement.[38]

County lines

[edit]

Although the practice was recently enjoined by a federal judge in Kim v. Hanlon, New Jersey is alone among the 50 states in authorizing local officials to award a strongly favorable ballot position to favored candidates in a prominent column on the ballot called the "county line."[39] The county line on the ballot has come under heavy criticism during the Senate primary as an allegedly undemocratic result of political machine and political boss power in the state.[40]

Due to this unique preferential-ballot-placement "county line" system in New Jersey, some NJ county parties hold conventions to decide which candidate gains the sought-after county-endorsed ballot position in the June primary, while other counties issue the line by private leadership fiat.[41] The first in the state convention in Monmouth County is often considered a bellwether for other conventions throughout the state, and has been called the "Iowa caucus of the New Jersey Senate race." On February 10, 2024, Kim won the convention in what some described as an upset victory, where it was assumed Murphy would perform better, especially in her home county.[42]

Uniquely among the states, New Jersey law authorizes a county chair of the county political party to make their own sole decision as an individual as to whom to award the line.[43] Nevertheless, excluding Sussex and Salem, which do not award a line but do provide an endorsement, processes vary by custom in each county as detailed in this collapsible table on the primary lines as awarded during county award season:[44][45][46][47]

County Date of convention
(or private leadership decision) 		Endorsement process Voting method Winner Number of registered Democratic voters in county[48]
Atlantic March 17, 2024[49] Open convention Secret ballot Kim 69,141
Bergen March 4, 2024[50] Open convention Secret ballot Murphy 252,716
Burlington February 25, 2024[51] Open convention Secret ballot Kim 139,854
Camden March 16, 2024 (date of leadership decision)[52] No convention; chair alone None Murphy 180,907
Cape May March 11, 2024[53] Open convention Secret ballot No endorsement awarded 18,207
Cumberland March 21, 2024[54] Procedurally disputed between two factions Procedurally disputed between two factions No endorsement awarded due to dispute 32,004
Essex No convention; chair alone None Murphy 295,958
Gloucester March 18, 2024 (date of leadership decision)[55] No convention; chair alone None Murphy 84,006
Hudson March 15, 2024 (date of formal announcement of leadership decision)[56] No convention; chair alone None Murphy 218,173
Hunterdon February 25, 2024[57] Open convention Secret ballot Kim 30,200
Mercer March 11, 2024[58] Open convention Secret ballot Kim 117,705
Middlesex March 14, 2024[59] Open convention that serves as a ratification of the chair's endorsement Public vote by show of hands with no count (ratification of chair's choice) Murphy 240,691
Monmouth February 18, 2024[60] Open convention Secret ballot Kim 139,580
Morris March 16, 2024[61] Open convention Secret ballot Kim 116,586
Ocean March 10, 2024[62] Open convention Secret ballot Kim 97,815
Passaic February 10, 2024 (date of leadership decision)[63] No convention; screening committee of the county chairman and municipal chairs None Murphy 71,716
Salem[b] March 23, 2024 Open convention (for endorsement; no line in county) Secret ballot Murphy 14,487
Somerset March 7, 2024[64] Open convention Public vote (by show of placards) Murphy 90,417
Sussex[b] March 2, 2024 (date of endorsement but no county line is awarded)[65] Open convention (for endorsement; no line in county) Secret ballot (for endorsement; no line in county) Kim 26,323
Union March 2, 2024 (date of leadership decision)[66] No convention; each municipal chair gets one vote Public vote (of chairs) at an unannounced private meeting Murphy 177,624
Warren March 3, 2024[67] Open convention Secret ballot Kim 23,153

A professor and director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University opined to The Hill that a major distinction existed between the Murphy-as-victor county endorsements and the Kim-as-victor county endorsements. While Kim won almost all of the county endorsements chosen by a secret ballot at an open convention, Murphy did better in convention-free counties where a county chair decides individually who to back. Said the director: “I think their wins show this steep division where Kim has been winning all of the open conventions, and Tammy Murphy has been winning the conventions that have some sort of advisory panel or advisory vote or party boss at the helm."[68]

On February 12, 2024, it was revealed that prior to her loss at the Monmouth County Democratic Convention, Murphy was repeatedly offered a shared line that she could jointly run on with Kim, but she rejected it, believing that she had enough votes to secure the line for herself.[69] On February 15, it was reported that a similar deal was being proposed for Burlington County by state senator Troy Singleton, who was also attempting to avoid a convention fight between two candidates vying for Kim's House seat, state representatives Herb Conaway and Carol Murphy.[70] On February 18, after the first debate between Kim and Murphy, Kim said that he would not accept a shared line deal in Burlington unless Murphy was willing to share the line in every county. He also stated that the Murphys themselves were behind the push in Burlington for a shared line deal.[71] A third deal was attempted on February 25, by Hunterdon County Democratic Chair Arlene Quiñones Perez (recently appointed to the New Jersey Racing Commission by Murphy's husband)[72] where any candidate who received more than 30% of the Hunterdon County convention results would get the line, forcing Kim to share the line despite winning the vote, but this was defeated in a voice vote by the convention attendees.[57]

In Bergen County where Murphy won the county line, Kim supporters alleged that the county chair, Paul Juliano, who was recently placed with the governor's support in a $280,000-a-year New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority job, and the county leadership suppressed efforts to allow Kim to speak to delegates and stacked the committee unilaterally with bonus voting delegates loyal to the chair.[73][74]

Federal judge Zahid Quraishi issued an injunction against the county line on March 29, directing clerks to instead print ballots with candidates organized by office in randomized order.

In Somerset County, where the county chair, Peg Schaffer, a recently added board member at the New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority, had endorsed Murphy and where a whole-committee vote for the line was held on March 7, some committee members advocated for the usual show of hands or otherwise public vote to be replaced by a secret ballot at the line award in order to quell fears about retaliation.[75] At the Somerset convention, the county chair denied a motion for secret ballot as "out of order" and the vote was held by a show of hands. A Star-Ledger columnist who attended the Somerset convention sharply criticized it as undemocratic and preferentially structured in Murphy's favor, pointing out that the county chair had sent out an advertisement in the name of the county party in support of Murphy in advance, had refused to allow confidential ballots, and had sent out a letter pointedly reminding delegates of the "rewarding" state and county jobs that delegates had allegedly received with Murphy's help.[76]

In Cape May County, county chair Marie Blistan, the former president of the New Jersey Education Association, as well as the rest of the county Democratic officials, voted to not endorse in the race, thus creating an open primary within the county (the same choice was made for the concurrent primary for New Jersey's 2nd congressional district).[77]

In Middlesex County, the county chair, Kevin McCabe, who is a lobbyist before the Murphy Administration on matters of wind power, was nominated by Murphy's husband to the powerful board of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and has the sole authority to award the line as he sees fit,[78] denied a floor motion for a secret ballot at the gathering to award the line despite alleged chanting for same by delegates (according to the Kim campaign, as reporters were barred from the event).[79][46]

In Cumberland County, the Democratic party was split into two rivaling factions, one ran by county chair Kevin McCann (backing Murphy), and the other ran by anti-McCann committeemembers (backing Kim). Neither group made a formal endorsement, leaving no candidate to receive the line.[80]

After Murphy's withdrawal from the race, counties that awarded their lines to Murphy will have the option to award the line to Kim instead.[18] Kim was able to receive the line in 17 of the 19 counties that award a line, with Cumberland not awarding one due to their split organization and Kim rejecting the Camden line due to their presence as the opposing council in his lawsuit against the line.[81][82]

County line federal lawsuit

[edit]
See also: Elections in New Jersey § 2024 federal injunction

On February 26, 2024, Kim filed a federal lawsuit, Kim v. Hanlon, in the District Court of New Jersey, aiming to redesign the primary ballot in New Jersey and claiming that the current preferential ballot placement is unconstitutional.[83] At the time of the filing, the Murphy campaign called the suit a "sad hypocritical stunt."[84]

On March 29, Judge Zahid Quraishi issued an injunction in the suit against the county line, directing clerks to instead print ballots with candidates organized by office in randomized order for the 2024 primary election.[85]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Patricia Campos-Medina
State legislators
Local officials
Party officials
Organizations
Labor unions
Andy Kim
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
State legislators
County officials
Local officials
Individuals
Party chapters
  • 30 municipal Democratic committees[131]
Political parties
Organizations
Newspapers and other media
Labor unions
Tammy Murphy (withdrawn)
Executive branch officials
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
County officials
Mayors
Party officials
Individuals
Party chapters
Political parties
Organizations
Labor unions
Kyle Jasey (withdrawn)
State legislators
Joe Signorello (withdrawn)
Executive branch officials
Organizations
Declined to endorse
U.S. representatives
State legislators
Local officials
Party officials
Individuals
Political parties

County Convention results

[edit]
County Convention results
Monmouth County Democratic Convention (February 10)[140]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Andy Kim 265 56.8%
Democratic Tammy Murphy 181 38.8%
Democratic Patricia Campos-Medina 20 4.3%
Democratic Larry Hamm[c] 0 0.0%
Total votes 466 100.0%
Burlington County Democratic Convention (February 24)[134]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Andy Kim 245 90.4%
Democratic Tammy Murphy 21 7.8%
Democratic Patricia Campos-Medina 3 1.1%
Democratic Larry Hamm 2 0.7%
Total votes 271 100.0%
Hunterdon County Democratic Convention (February 25)[57]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Andy Kim 120 62.2%
Democratic Tammy Murphy 64 33.2%
Democratic Patricia Campos-Medina 9 4.7%
Total votes 193 100.0%
Sussex County Democratic Convention (March 2)[d][145]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Andy Kim 101 56.7%
Democratic Tammy Murphy 76 42.7%
Democratic Larry Hamm 1 0.6%
Democratic Patricia Campos-Medina 0 0.0%
Total votes 178 100.0%
Union County Democratic Screening Committee (March 2)[146]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tammy Murphy 19 86.4%
Democratic Andy Kim 3 13.6%
Democratic Patricia Campos-Medina 0 0.0%
Democratic Larry Hamm 0 0.0%
Total votes 22 100.0%
Warren County Democratic Convention (March 3)[147]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Andy Kim 33 80.5%
Democratic Tammy Murphy 6 14.6%
Democratic Patricia Campos-Medina 2 4.9%
Democratic Larry Hamm 0 0.0%
Total votes 41 100.0%
Bergen County Democratic Convention (March 4)[133]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tammy Murphy 738 63.8%
Democratic Andy Kim 419 36.2%
Total votes 1,157 100.0%
Somerset County Democratic Convention (March 7)[144]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tammy Murphy 207 63.1%
Democratic Andy Kim 106 32.3%
Democratic Patricia Campos-Medina 15 4.6%
Total votes 328 100.0%
Ocean County Democratic Convention (March 10)[142]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Andy Kim 197 85.7%
Democratic Tammy Murphy 31 13.5%
Democratic Patricia Campos-Medina 3 8.7%
Total votes 230 100.0%
Mercer County Democratic Convention (March 11)[138]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Andy Kim 236 63.1%
Democratic Tammy Murphy 108 28.9%
Democratic Patricia Campos-Medina 22 5.9%
Democratic Larry Hamm 8 2.1%
Total votes 374 100.0%
Morris County Democratic Convention (March 16–17)[141]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Andy Kim 457 84.6%
Democratic Tammy Murphy 57 10.6%
Democratic Patricia Campos-Medina 26 4.8%
Total votes 540 100.0%
Atlantic County Democratic Convention (March 17)[132]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Andy Kim 156 74.3%
Democratic Tammy Murphy 54 25.7%
Total votes 210 100.0%
Salem County Democratic Convention (March 23)[d][194]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tammy Murphy 13 61.9%
Democratic Andy Kim 8 38.1%
Total votes 21 100.0%

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Patricia Campos-Medina (D) $430,674[e] $405,011 $25,662
Larry Hamm (D)[f] $25,362[g] $11,424.35 $13,937.65
Andy Kim (D) $7,868,353 $3,941,232 $4,089,654
Source: Federal Election Commission[210]

Debates

[edit]

A WNBC spokesman stated that Kim and Murphy will debate in person in May 2024 at 30 Rockefeller Plaza to be broadcast state-wide.[211]

Kim and Murphy on Sunday, February 18, 2024, both participated in a live streamed event hosted by the New Jersey Globe, rather than an in-person debate.[212][213] Both candidates were invited to a previous debate on February 4; Kim accepted, but Murphy declined. As a result, Kim appeared before a panel of journalists alone to discuss his candidacy.[214]

A third debate was announced on April 30, 2024, to be hosted by WNYC, New Jersey Public Radio, the American Civil Liberties Union, and Salvation for Social Justice. Unlike the previous debates, Campos-Medina and Hamm were invited to participate. The debate is expected to be broadcast via WHYY-FM.[215][216][217]

Debates among candidates for the Democratic nomination for Senate in New Jersey
No. Date and time Host Moderator Link Participants

 P  Present  A  Absent
 I  Invited  N  Not invited  Out  Out of race  W  Withdrawn

Campos-Medina Hamm Kim Menendez Murphy
1[218] February 18, 2024
8 pm EST 		New Jersey Globe
On New Jersey
Rebovich Institute 		Laura Jones YouTube N[h] N[h] P O[i] P
2[215] May 2024 NBC[j]
Telemundo[k] 		TBD N/A N N I O W
3[216] May 13, 2024 WNYC/NJPR[l]
ACLU
League of Women Voters-NJ
Salvation for Social Justice 		Michael Hill YouTube P P P O W

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[m] 		Margin
of error 		Patricia
Campos-Medina 		Larry
Hamm 		Bob
Menendez 		Andy
Kim 		Tammy
Murphy 		Other Undecided
Emerson College March 26–29, 2024 408 (RV) ± 4.8% 6% 5% – 51% – – 38%
March 24, 2024 Murphy withdraws from the race
March 21, 2024 Menendez declines to run in Democratic primary
Braun Research/
Farleigh Dickinson University 		January 21–28, 2024 504 (LV) ± 4.5% 8% – 9% 32% 20% – 31%
Breakthrough Campaigns[A] December 7–14, 2023 1,040 (LV) ± 3.0% – 4% 6% 45% 22% 6%[n] 15%
Public Policy Polling (D)[A] November 13–14, 2023 560 (LV) – – – 5% 40% 21% – 34%
Public Policy Polling (D)[B] October 3–4, 2023 502 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 5% 42% 19% – 34%
502 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 10% 63% – – 28%
Data for Progress (D) September 29 – October 3, 2023 551 (LV) ± 4.4% – – 9% 48% – 3%[o] 40%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[m] 		Margin
of error 		Josh
Gottheimer 		Kyle
Jasey 		Andy
Kim 		Bob
Menendez 		Tammy
Murphy 		Frank
Pallone 		Teresa
Ruiz 		Mikie
Sherrill 		Undecided
Data for Progress (D) September 29 – October 3, 2023 551 (LV) ± 4.4% 6% 1% 27% 6% 4% 6% 1% 20% 29%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Kim
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
Democratic primary results[219]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Andy Kim 392,602 74.83%
Democratic Patricia Campos-Medina 84,286 16.06%
Democratic Lawrence Hamm 47,796 9.11%
Total votes 524,684 100.0%

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Curtis Bashaw
State senators
State assemblymembers
Local officials
Party officials
Individuals
Political parties
Party chapters
Justin Murphy
Organizations
Christine Serrano Glassner
Executive branch officials
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Statewide officials
State senators
State assemblymembers
Local officials
Party officials
Individuals
Political parties
Organizations
Gregg Mele (withdrawn)
Party chapters
Alex Zdan (withdrawn)
Political parties
Declined to endorse
U.S. representatives
Newspapers
County party endorsements
  Bashaw
  No county line
  Serrano Glassner
  Bashaw, formerly Zdan

*signifies endorsement in a county that does not use the county line

County Conventions

[edit]
County Convention results
Hunterdon County Republican Convention (February 7)[268]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Christine Serrano Glassner 87 56.9%
Republican Curtis Bashaw 54 35.3%
Republican Alex Zdan 12 7.8%
Republican Michael Estrada 0 0.0%
Republican Gregg Mele 0 0.0%
Republican Albert Harshaw[c] 0 0.0%
Total votes 153 100.0%
Union County Republican Convention (February 8)[255]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Christine Serrano Glassner 152 66.1%
Republican Curtis Bashaw 62 27.0%
Republican Gregg Mele 16 7.0%
Total votes 230 100.0%
Morris County Republican Convention (February 20)[269]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Christine Serrano Glassner 279 73.6%
Republican Curtis Bashaw 100 26.4%
Total votes 379 100.0%
Atlantic County Republican Convention (February 24)[241]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Curtis Bashaw 953 78.2%
Republican Alex Zdan 265 21.8%
Total votes 1,218 100.0%
Ocean County Republican Convention (February 29)[251]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Curtis Bashaw 163 72.8%
Republican Christine Serrano Glassner 49 21.9%
Republican Alex Zdan 12 5.4%
Total votes 224 100.0%
Monmouth County Republican Convention (February 29)[274]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Alex Zdan 103 42.2%
Republican Curtis Bashaw 101 41.4%
Republican Christine Serrano Glassner 40 16.4%
Total votes 244 100.0%
Monmouth County Republican Convention runoff (February 29)[249]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Alex Zdan 111 57.5%
Republican Curtis Bashaw 82 42.5%
Total votes 193 100.0%
Warren County Republican Convention (March 2)[271]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Christine Serrano Glassner 58 81.7%
Republican Curtis Bashaw 13 18.3%
Total votes 71 100.0%
Somerset County Republican Convention (March 5)[275]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Curtis Bashaw 90 42.1%
Republican Christine Serrano Glassner 68 31.8%
Republican Alex Zdan 50 23.4%
Republican Albert Harshaw 6 2.8%
Total votes 214 100.0%
Somerset County Republican Convention runoff (March 5)[254]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Curtis Bashaw 110 56.7%
Republican Christine Serrano Glassner 84 43.3%
Total votes 194 100.0%
Mercer County Republican Convention (March 13)[247]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Curtis Bashaw 78 75.7%
Republican Alex Zdan 24 23.3%
Republican Christine Serrano Glassner[p] 1 1.0%
Republican Albert Harshaw 0 0.0%
Republican Justin Michael Murphy 0 0.0%
Total votes 103 100.0%
Middlesex County Republican Convention (March 14)[248]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Curtis Bashaw 117 81.8%
Republican Justin Michael Murphy 16 11.2%
Republican Alex Zdan 7 4.9%
Republican Albert Harshaw 3 2.1%
Total votes 143 100.0%
Cape May County Republican Convention (March 14)[244]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Curtis Bashaw 121 100.0%
Republican Brian Jackson 0 0.0%
Republican Christine Serrano Glassner 0 0.0%
Republican Gregg Mele[q] 0 0.0%
Total votes 121 100.0%
Bergen County Republican Convention (March 19)[266]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Christine Serrano Glassner 254 39.9%
Republican Curtis Bashaw 200 31.5%
Republican Fred Schneiderman 99 15.6%
Republican Alex Zdan 80 12.6%
Republican Brian Jackson 2 0.3%
Republican Justin Michael Murphy 1 0.2%
Total votes 636 100.0%

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Curtis Bashaw (R) $1,417,913[r] $893,230 $524,682
Justin Murphy (R) $9,938[s] $10,301 $0
Christine Seranno Glassner (R) $474,906[t] $212,486 $262,419
Source: Federal Election Commission[210]

Debates

[edit]
Debates among candidates for the Republican nomination for Senate in New Jersey
No. Date and time Host Moderator Link Participants

 P  Present  A  Absent
 I  Invited  N  Not invited  Out  Out of race  W  Withdrawn

Bashaw Serrano-
Glassner 		Zdan
1[276] April 3, 2024
8 PM EST 		New Jersey Globe
On New Jersey
Rebovich Institute 		Laura Jones Link A P W

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[m] 		Margin
of error 		Curtis
Bashaw 		Albert
Harshaw 		Justin
Murphy 		Peter
Vallorosi 		Christine
Serrano Glassner 		Undecided
Emerson College March 26–29, 2024 310 (RV) ± 5.5% 3% 2% 4% 3% 5% 84%

Results

[edit]
Results by county
  Bashaw
  •   30–40%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  Serrano Glassner
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
Republican primary results[219]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Curtis Bashaw 144,869 45.57%
Republican Christine Serrano Glassner 121,986 38.38%
Republican Justin Murphy 35,954 11.31%
Republican Albert Harshaw 15,064 4.74%
Total votes 317,873 100.0%

Third parties and independents

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Filed paperwork

[edit]
  • Michael Estrada (Independent), independent candidate for AD-23 in 2017[280] (switched from Republican)[281][282]
  • Patricia Mooneyham (Independent)[283]
  • Victor Joseph Scazzola (Independent)[284]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Michael Estrada (I)[f] $5,218.20[u] $481.19 $4,737.01
Bob Menendez (I) $10,960,363 $7,605,560 $3,573,234
Source: Federal Election Commission[210]

Interim appointment

[edit]
George Helmy

Following his federal corruption conviction in July, Senator Bob Menendez announced he would resign from the Senate, effective on August 20, 2024. Governor Phil Murphy stated he would appoint an interim replacement for the current term until the November election.[1] This announcement fueled speculation that Murphy would appoint Democratic nominee Andy Kim to the seat, as he is the favorite to win the general election.[286] Republican nominee Curtis Bashaw released a public statement urging Murphy to appoint a caretaker to the seat, arguing selecting Kim would give him incumbency advantage.[287] On July 16, Murphy appointed Port Authority of New York and New Jersey commissioner and his former chief of staff George Helmy to the seat.[288]

Appointee

[edit]

Reported shortlist

[edit]

Potential candidates not appointed

[edit]

Declined to be considered

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[297] Solid D March 25, 2024
Inside Elections[298] Solid D February 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[299] Solid D November 9, 2023
Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[300] Safe D October 30, 2024
Elections Daily[301] Safe D May 4, 2023
CNalysis[302] Safe D November 21, 2023
RealClearPolitics[303] Likely D August 5, 2024
Split Ticket[304] Safe D October 23, 2024
538[305] Likely D October 28, 2024

Post-primary endorsements

[edit]
Andy Kim (D)
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Organizations
Labor unions
Newspapers
Curtis Bashaw (R)
U.S. senators
Governors
Ken Kaplan (L)
Political parties

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of September 30, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Andy Kim (D) $11,388,210 $7,567,613 $3,983,128
Curtis Bashaw (R) $3,850,134[v] $2,516,342 $1,333,792
Source: Federal Election Commission[210]

Polling

[edit]
Aggregate polling
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Andy
Kim (D) 		Curtis
Bashaw (R) 		Undecided
[w] 		Margin
270toWin October 26 - November 4, 2024 November 4, 2024 53.3% 33.8% 12.9% Kim +19.5%
TheHill/DDHQ through November 3, 2024 November 4, 2024 55.4% 34.9% 9.7% Kim +20.5%
Average 54.4% 34.4% 11.2% Kim +20.0%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[m] 		Margin
of error 		Andy
Kim (D) 		Curtis
Bashaw (R) 		Other Undecided
Research Co. November 2–3, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 56% 38% 2%[x] 4%
Fairleigh Dickinson University October 20–27, 2024 806 (RV) ± 3.5% 57% 39% – 4%
Cygnal (R) October 23–24, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 55% 38% 3%[y] 4%
Rutgers University October 15–22, 2024 929 (RV) ± 4.2% 49% 26% – 19%
National Research Inc. (R)[C] August 13–15, 2024 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 38% 33% – 22%
Expedition Strategies[D] June 24 – July 8, 2024 272 (LV) – 50% 35% – 15%
United 2024 (R) July 1–2, 2024 477 (RV) ± 4.5% 41% 39% – 20%
co/efficient (R) June 26–27, 2024 810 (LV) ± 3.4% 41% 34% – 25%
Fairleigh Dickinson University April 1–8, 2024 809 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 38% – 15%
Hypothetical polling
Andy Kim vs. Curtis Bashaw vs. Bob Menendez
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[m] 		Margin
of error 		Andy
Kim (D) 		Curtis
Bashaw (R) 		Bob
Menendez (I) 		Undecided
United 2024 (R) July 1–2, 2024 477 (RV)  4.5% 35% 33% 6% 26%
co/efficient (R) June 26–27, 2024 810 (LV)  3.42% 39% 33% 3% 25%
Fairleigh Dickinson University April 1–8, 2024 809 (RV)  3.5% 44% 38% 6% 12%
Andy Kim vs. Christine Serrano Glassner
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[m] 		Margin
of error 		Andy
Kim (D) 		Christine Serrano
Glassner (R) 		Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University April 1–8, 2024 809 (RV)  3.5% 49% 39% 13%
Andy Kim vs. Christine Serrano Glassner vs. Bob Menendez as an independent
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[m] 		Margin
of error 		Andy
Kim (D) 		Christine Serrano
Glassner (R) 		Bob
Menendez (I) 		Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University April 1–8, 2024 809 (RV)  3.5% 45% 39% 7% 10%
Bob Menendez vs. Chris Christie
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[m] 		Margin
of error 		Bob
Menendez (D) 		Chris
Christie (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[E] September 26–27, 2023 565 (V) – 24% 27% 41% 8%
Bob Menendez vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[m] 		Margin
of error 		Bob
Menendez (D) 		Generic
Republican 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[E] September 26–27, 2023 565 (V) – 20% 42% 25% 13%
Andy Kim vs. Chris Christie
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[m] 		Margin
of error 		Andy
Kim (D) 		Chris
Christie (R) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[E] September 26–27, 2023 565 (V) – 46% 20% 23% 10%
Andy Kim vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[m] 		Margin
of error 		Andy
Kim (D) 		Generic
Republican 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)[E] September 26–27, 2023 565 (V) – 44% 32% 5% 18%
Generic Democrat vs. generic Republican vs. Bob Menendez as a Independent
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[m] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Democrat 		Generic
Republican 		Bob
Menendez (I) 		Undecided
Emerson College March 26–29, 2024 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 42% 9% –

Debates

[edit]

During the first debate, about 6 minutes after the discussion began, Bashaw appeared to freeze for several seconds. After which, Kim approached Bashaw, asking if he was okay with the moderators soon sending the debate into a commercial break.[315] After a 10 minute break, the debate returned with Bashaw present. Explaining that he hadn't eaten all day, he now felt better and the debate resumed without further interruption.[316]

2024 United States Senate general election in New Jersey debates
No. Date Host Moderators Link Democratic Republican
Key:

 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn

Kim Bashaw
1[317][318] October 6, 2024 New Jersey Globe Laura Jones [1] P P
2[318] October 15, 2024 NJ Spotlight News Briana Vannozzi & David Cruz [2] P P
3[318] October 22, 2024 News 12 New Jersey Eric Landskroner [3] P P

Results

[edit]
2024 United States Senate election in New Jersey[319]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Andy Kim 2,155,215 53.6%
Republican Curtis Bashaw 1,769,733 44.0%
Green Christina Khalil 45,275 1.1%
Libertarian Kenneth Kaplan 24,158 0.6%
Vote Better Patricia Mooneyham 17,110 0.4%
Socialist Workers Joanne Kuniansky 9,744 0.2%
Total votes 4,021,235 100.0%
Democratic hold
County that flipped from Republican to Democratic
County that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

[edit]

Kim won 9 of 12 congressional districts.[320]

District Kim Bashaw Representative
1st 61% 37% Donald Norcross
2nd 44% 54% Jeff Van Drew
3rd 56% 42% Andy Kim (118th Congress)
Herb Conaway (119th Congress)
4th 37% 62% Chris Smith
5th 51% 47% Josh Gottheimer
6th 54% 43% Frank Pallone Jr.
7th 48% 50% Tom Kean Jr.
8th 64% 33% Rob Menendez
9th 51% 45% Nellie Pou
10th 75% 22% LaMonica McIver
11th 54% 44% Mikie Sherrill
12th 62% 35% Bonnie Watson Coleman

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b The County Chair of the Essex County Democratic Committee, LeRoy J. Jones Jr., is also the Chair of the state party.
  2. ^ a b Does not use county lines on its primary ballots
  3. ^ a b Withdrew from participation in this convention but remained on ballot.
  4. ^ a b This convention does not award a line
  5. ^ $290,000 of this total was self-funded by Campos-Medina
  6. ^ a b Did not file for pre-primary deadline
  7. ^ $700 of this total was self-funded by Hamm
  8. ^ a b Did not meet debate threshold by required date
  9. ^ Menendez was invited pending he announced his candidacy by February 11, 2024, but didn't.
  10. ^ WCAU and WNBC
  11. ^ WWSI and WNJU
  12. ^ Also broadcast in Southern Jersey via WHYY-FM
  13. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  14. ^ "Waiting for another candidate" with 6%
  15. ^ Kyle Jasey with 3%
  16. ^ Did not participate in this convention but received a vote.
  17. ^ Withdrew from the race prior to this convention.
  18. ^ $800,000 of this total was self funded by Bashaw
  19. ^ $3,750 of this total was self funded by Murphy
  20. ^ $300,000 of this total was self-funded by Glassner
  21. ^ $5,000 of this total was self funded by Estrada
  22. ^ $2,025,000 of this total was self funded by Bashaw
  23. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  24. ^ "Some other candidate" with 2%
  25. ^ "Third-party candidate not listed" with 3%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b Poll commissioned on behalf of Kim's campaign
  2. ^ Poll commissioned by End Citizens United and Let America Vote, which support Kim
  3. ^ Poll sponsored by Bashaw's campaign
  4. ^ Poll Sponsored by Progressive Policy Institute
  5. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by VoteVets.org, which supports Kim.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Vazquez, Maegan (July 25, 2024). "Who could replace Sen. Bob Menendez of N.J. after his resignation?". The Washington Post. Retrieved August 4, 2024.
  2. ^ Friedman, Matt; Han, Daniel (August 14, 2024). "New Jersey governor to name former aide the caretaker for Bob Menendez's Senate seat". Politico. Retrieved August 15, 2024.
  3. ^ Weiser, Benjamin; Tully, Tracey; Rashbaum, William (September 22, 2023). "Menendez Accused of Brazen Bribery Plot, Taking Cash and Gold". The New York Times. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
  4. ^ McCarthy, Mia (March 21, 2024). "Indicted Sen. Bob Menendez declines reelection as Democrat, may run as independent". Politico. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
  5. ^ "NJ first lady Tammy Murphy ends Senate campaign, paving way for Andy Kim". Politico. March 24, 2024. Retrieved March 24, 2024.
  6. ^ a b Cohen, Luc (July 16, 2024). "US Senator Menendez convicted at corruption trial, cementing political downfall". Reuters. Retrieved July 16, 2024.
  7. ^ "Sen. Bob Menendez ends independent run days before he's set to resign - POLITICO". Politico. Retrieved August 18, 2024.
  8. ^ Han, Daniel; Rivard, Ry (July 23, 2024). "Sen. Bob Menendez to resign next month following corruption conviction". Politico.
  9. ^ Weiser, Benjamin; Tully, Tracey; Rashbaum, William K. (September 22, 2023). "Senator Robert Menendez Is Indicted in New York". The New York Times. Archived from the original on September 22, 2023. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
  10. ^ Ted Sherman (September 22, 2023). "Sen. Robert Menendez indicted again on explosive federal corruption charges". NJ Advance Media. Archived from the original on September 22, 2023. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
  11. ^ "Senator Robert Menendez and Salomon Melgen Indicted for Conspiracy, Bribery and Honest Services Fraud". Department of Justice. April 1, 2015. Archived from the original on April 1, 2015. Retrieved April 1, 2015.
  12. ^ Maimon, Alan; Barrett, Devlin (November 16, 2017). "After mistrial, Menendez speaks of 'resurrection,' but joy may be short-lived". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on November 17, 2017. Retrieved November 17, 2017.
  13. ^ Barrett, Devlin (January 31, 2018). "Justice Department seeks to toss out charges against Sen. Menendez". Archived from the original on February 1, 2018. Retrieved January 31, 2018 – via www.WashingtonPost.com.
  14. ^ Cohen, Luc; Zengerle, Patricia; Goudsward, Andrew; Cohen, Luc; Zengerle, Patricia (September 23, 2023). "US Senator Menendez charged with bribery, says he will not resign". Reuters. Retrieved September 23, 2023.
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  88. ^ Heinis, John (November 13, 2023). "Kyle Jasey will challenge Rob Menendez for Congress instead of running against his father". Hudson County View. Retrieved November 14, 2023.
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  90. ^ a b Westhoven, William (September 20, 2023). "NJ mayor Christine Serrano Glassner seeks GOP nod vs. Bob Menendez". The Record. Retrieved September 23, 2023. Green Party member Christina Khalil and independent Nick Carducci have also declared their Senate campaigns.
  91. ^ Wildstein, David (July 13, 2023). "It's official: Joe Signorello challenging Kean in NJ-7 House race". New Jersey Globe. Retrieved July 13, 2023. Roselle Park mayor ends U.S. Senate bid, will run in of the premier congressional races in U.S.
  92. ^ Fox, Joey (September 22, 2023). "With Menendez under indictment, what's going to happen to his Senate seat?". New Jersey Globe. Retrieved September 22, 2023.
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