2024 United States Senate election in Indiana
(Redirected from Valerie McCray)
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 County results Banks: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% McCray: 50–60% 60–70% | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Indiana |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Indiana was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Indiana. Republican congressman Jim Banks was elected to his first term, defeating Democratic psychologist Valerie McCray in the general election.[1] Banks will succeed Republican incumbent Mike Braun, who opted instead to run for governor.[2] This was the first election for this seat in which there was no incumbent running since 1958,[a] and the first since 2006 without Joe Donnelly as the Democratic nominee. Banks also flipped 6 counties (Delaware, La Porte, Porter, St. Joseph, Tippecanoe, and Vigo) which Braun lost in 2018.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Jim Banks, U.S. representative for Indiana's 3rd congressional district (2017–present)[3]
Disqualified
[edit]- John Rust, former chairmain of the board for Rose Acre Farms[4]
Declined
[edit]- Mike Braun, incumbent U.S. senator (2019–present) (ran for governor)[2]
- Mitch Daniels, former governor of Indiana (2005–2013), former President of Purdue University (2013–2022), and former Director of the Office of Management and Budget (2001–2003)[5]
- Eric Holcomb, Governor of Indiana (2017–present) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[6]
- Mike Pence, former vice president of the United States (2017–2021), former Governor of Indiana (2013–2017), and former U.S. Representative for Indiana's 5th congressional district (2001–2013)[7] (ran for president)[8]
- Victoria Spartz, U.S. representative for Indiana's 5th congressional district (2021–present) (ran for re-election)[9]
- Todd Rokita, Indiana Attorney General (2021–present), former U.S. Representative for Indiana's 4th congressional district (2011–2019), former Indiana Secretary of State (2002–2010) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018 (ran for re-election)[10]
Endorsements
[edit]Jim Banks (R)
Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[11]
- Stephen Miller, former Senior Advisor to the President (2017–2021)[12]
- Mike Pompeo, U.S. Secretary of State (2018–2021), Director of the CIA (2017–2018), and U.S. representative for Kansas's 4th congressional district (2011–2017)[13]
U.S. senators
- John Barrasso, U.S. senator from Wyoming (2007–present)[14]
- Marsha Blackburn, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2019–present)[15]
- Mike Braun, U.S. senator from Indiana (2019–present)[16]
- Tom Cotton, U.S. senator from Arkansas (2015–present)[17]
- Kevin Cramer, U.S. senator from North Dakota (2019–present)[15]
- Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas (2013–present)[18]
- Steve Daines, U.S. senator from Montana (2015–present)[19]
- Bill Hagerty, U.S. senator from Tennessee (2021–present)[15]
- Cynthia Lummis, U.S. senator from Wyoming (2021–present)[15]
- Mitch McConnell, U.S. senator from Kentucky (1985–present), Senate Minority Leader (2021–present), and former Senate Majority Leader (2015–2021)[20]
- Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida (2011–present)[21]
- John Thune, U.S. senator from South Dakota (2005–present)[22]
- Tommy Tuberville, U.S. senator from Alabama (2021–present)[23]
- JD Vance, U.S. senator from Ohio (2023–present)[24]
U.S. representatives
- Susan Brooks, former U.S. representative for Indiana's 5th congressional district (2013–2021)[25]
- Larry Bucshon, U.S. representative for Indiana's 8th congressional district (2011–present)[26]
- Erin Houchin, U.S. representative for Indiana's 9th congressional district (2023–present)[27]
- Ronny Jackson, U.S. representative for Texas's 13th congressional district (2021–present)[28]
- Greg Pence, U.S. representative for Indiana's 6th congressional district (2019–present)[26]
- Elise Stefanik, U.S. representative for New York's 21st congressional district (2015–present)[28]
Statewide officials
- Suzanne Crouch, Lieutenant Governor of Indiana (2017–present)[29]
State legislators
- Justin Busch, state senator for the 16th district (2018–present)[17]
- Michelle Davis, state representative for the 54th district (2020–present)[17]
Individuals
- Charlie Kirk, activist[28]
- Mark Levin, Host of The Mark Levin Show and Life, Liberty & Levin[30]
Political Parties
Organizations
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of April 17, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Jim Banks (R) | $4,731,928 | $3,188,805 | $2,878,607 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[39] | |||
Polling
[edit]Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Jim Banks |
Mitch Daniels |
Trey Hollingsworth |
Todd Rokita |
Victoria Spartz |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bellwether Research[40] | December 11–17, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | – | 14% | – | 11% | 16% | 12% | 9% | 39% |
| 10% | 32% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 29% | ||||
| Response:AI[41][A] | December 9–16, 2022 | 503 (RV) | ±4.3% | 14% | 35% | 6% | — | 14% | 16%[c] | 17% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Banks | 475,729 | 100.00% | |
| Total votes | 475,729 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Marc Carmichael, former state representative (1986–1991) and nominee for Indiana's 2nd congressional district in 1996[43]
Withdrew
[edit]- Keith Potts, former Indianapolis city councilor (2020–2023)[44]
Declined
[edit]- Joe Donnelly, former U.S. Ambassador to the Holy See (2022–2024) and former U.S. Senator (2013–2019)[45]
- Ron Klain, former White House Chief of Staff (2021–2023)[46]
Endorsements
[edit]Valerie McCray
Labor unions
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Marc Carmichael (D) | $115,161[d] | $98,370 | $16,125 |
| Valerie McCray (D) | $61,506[e] | $45,953 | $15,684 |
| Keith Potts (D) | $99,485[f] | $98,302 | $1,183 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[39] | |||
Results
[edit]
McCray
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
Carmichael
- 50–60%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Valerie McCray | 121,734 | 68.01% | |
| Democratic | Marc Carmichael | 57,256 | 31.99% | |
| Total votes | 178,990 | 100.00% | ||
Libertarian convention
[edit]Nominee
[edit]Write-in candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Phillip Beachy, retired carpenter and Democratic candidate for Indiana's 3rd congressional district in 2022[49]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[50] | Solid R | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[51] | Solid R | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[52] | Safe R | November 9, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[53] | Safe R | June 8, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[54] | Safe R | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis[55] | Solid R | November 21, 2023 |
| RealClearPolitics[56] | Solid R | August 5, 2024 |
| Split Ticket[57] | Safe R | October 23, 2024 |
| 538[58] | Solid R | October 23, 2024 |
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Jim Banks (R) | $5,553,816 | $3,713,830 | $3,175,470 |
| Valerie McCray (D) | $61,507[g] | $45,953 | $15,685 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[39] | |||
Debate
[edit]| No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
||||||||||||
| Banks | McCray | Horning | ||||||||||
| 1 | October 29, 2024 | Indiana Debate Commission | Laura Merrifield Wilson | [59] | A | P | P | |||||
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Jim Banks (R) |
Valerie McCray (D) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote[60] | October 5–28, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 57% | 43% | – | – |
| ActiVote[61] | September 3 – October 5, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 56% | 44% | – | – |
| ARW Strategies[62][B] | September 23–25, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 49% | 35% | – | 16% |
| Emerson College[63][C] | September 12–13, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 33% | 5%[h] | 14% |
| Emerson College[64] | October 1–4, 2023 | 462 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 31% | 22% | 8%[i] | 39% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Banks | 1,659,416 | 58.64% | +7.91% | |
| Democratic | Valerie McCray | 1,097,061 | 38.77% | −6.07% | |
| Libertarian | Andrew Horning | 73,233 | 2.59% | −1.83% | |
| Write-in | 187 | 0.00% | |||
| Total votes | 2,829,897 | 100.0% | |||
| Republican hold | |||||
On election day, Republican Banks defeated Democrat Valerie McCray by a near 20-percentage-point margin, winning all but three counties. Indiana has not elected a Democrat to the United States Senate since Joe Donnelly was elected in 2012.
Notes
[edit]- ^ Richard Lugar, the incumbent Senator at the time, ran for re-election to a seventh term in 2012, but lost in the Republican primary to Richard Mourdock.
- ^ a b Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Jennifer Ruth-Green with 4%; Curtis Hill with 2%; "Someone else" with 10%
- ^ $1,000 of this total was self-funded by Carmichael
- ^ $1,407 of this total was self-funded by McCray
- ^ $20,345 of this total was self-funded by Potts
- ^ $4,407 of this total was self-funded by McCray
- ^ Horning (L) with 5%
- ^ "Someone else" at 8%
Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ "Indiana U.S. Senate Election Results 2024: McCray vs. Banks". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. Retrieved November 7, 2024.
- ^ a b Wren, Adam. "Braun to run for Indiana governor, opening Senate seat in 2024". POLITICO.
- ^ a b Wright, David (January 17, 2023). "GOP Rep. Jim Banks announces Indiana US Senate campaign". CNN.
- ^ Carloni, Brittany (February 27, 2024). "Jim Banks won't face Republican challenger in May. Here's who was removed from the ballot". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved February 27, 2024.
- ^ Weaver, Al (January 31, 2023). "Mitch Daniels passes on Senate campaign". The Hill.
- ^ Holcomb, Eric (June 15, 2023). "Op/Ed: America is in what I call the Disaster Paradox. Here's how we overcome it". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved June 15, 2023.
No, I am no genius or saint, am not running for U.S. House, Senate, or president and have never uttered the words, 'Only I can fix it.'
- ^ Wren, Adam (December 19, 2022). "'He's Got a Huge Problem'". Politico. Retrieved July 25, 2023.
- ^ Kevin Breuninger (June 5, 2023). "Mike Pence files paperwork to launch 2024 Republican presidential campaign". CNBC.
- ^ Weaver, Al (February 3, 2023). "Victoria Spartz passes on Senate run, to retire from Congress at end of term". The Hill.
- ^ "Indiana Attorney General Todd Rokita not seeking higher office". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved February 22, 2023.
- ^ Weaver, Al (February 1, 2023). "Trump endorses Jim Banks for Indiana Senate seat". The Hill.
- ^ Shaw, Adan (January 23, 2023). "Jim Banks wins Stephen Miller's backing for 'bold pro-American agenda,' after launching Senate bid". Fox News.
- ^ "Pompeo endorses Rep. Jim Banks in Indiana Senate race". Washington Examiner. September 26, 2023. Archived from the original on September 27, 2023. Retrieved September 27, 2023.
- ^ Oshin, Olafimihan (February 2, 2023). "Banks lands first endorsement from Senate Republican leadership". The Hill.
- ^ a b c d Gans, Jared (February 21, 2023). "Ten Republican Senators hosting fundraiser for Banks' Senate bid". The Hill.
- ^ Howell, James (September 14, 2023). "Senator Mike Braun endorses Jim Banks for Senate seat". WRTV.
- ^ a b c "Indiana Rep. Jim Banks announces bid for Braun's Senate seat". NBC News. January 17, 2023. Retrieved January 17, 2023.
- ^ "Sen. Ted Cruz endorses Jim Banks for Indiana Senate". WTRC-FM. October 19, 2023.
- ^ "Steve Daines endorses Jim Banks". about.bgov.com. Bloomberg.com. February 2023. Retrieved February 1, 2023.
- ^ Elkind, Elizabeth (March 6, 2023). "McConnell to appear at fundraiser for Trump ally Jim Banks' Senate campaign". Fox News.
- ^ "Marco Rubio Endorses Jim Banks in Heated Hoosier Senate Race". American Reveille. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ^ Sivak, David (March 23, 2023). "Jim Banks picks up endorsement of No. 2 Senate Republican". Washington Examiner.
- ^ "Republicans offer up nominees for quote of the week". Indiana Capital Chronicle. May 16, 2023. Retrieved June 1, 2023.
- ^ Shaw, Adan (January 31, 2023). "Sen. JD Vance of Ohio backs Rep. Jim Banks in Indiana's Senate GOP primary". Fox News.
- ^ Altimari, Daniela; McIntire, Mary Ellen; Ackley, Kate (February 23, 2023). "At the Races: Train wreck — it's not just a metaphor". Roll Call.
- ^ a b "Banks' shot: Rising conservative dives into Indiana Senate race". January 17, 2023.
- ^ McIntyre, Michael (July 25, 2023). "Endorsements Continue To Roll In For Congressman Banks' Bid For Senate". WOWO.
- ^ a b c "Jim Banks rakes in endorsements after jumping into Indiana Senate race". Washington Examiner. January 18, 2023. Retrieved July 26, 2023.
- ^ Garbacz, Steve (March 21, 2023). "Lt. Gov. Crouch endorses Banks for Senate". KPC News.
- ^ Gertz, Matt (January 18, 2023). "Rep. Jim Banks launches Senate campaign with tour of right-wing fever swamp". Media Matters for America.
- ^ Dwyer, Kayla (August 11, 2023). "Indiana Republican Party gives U.S. Rep. Jim Banks Senate endorsement, RNC support". The Indianapolis Star. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
- ^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates".
- ^ "CatholicVote.org Candidate Fund Endorses Jim Banks for Senate".
- ^ "You Can Bank on Banks!". Eagle Forum. Retrieved March 15, 2024.
- ^ "IFA Endorses Mike Braun for Governor and Jim Banks for U.S. Senate Ahead of Next Week's Indiana Primary Elections". www.franchise.org. May 3, 2024. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
- ^ "Indiana". nrapvf.org. Retrieved April 23, 2024.
- ^ "SBA Pro-Life America's Candidate Fund Endorses Pro-Life Champion Jim Banks for U.S. Senate".
- ^ "We are pleased to announce our first endorsement in the 2024 cycle for conservative warrior @Jim_Banks! Jim is committed to an America First agenda and we are behind him 100%".
- ^ a b c "2024 Election United States Senate - Indiana". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
- ^ Bellwether Research
- ^ Response:AI
- ^ Bergquist, Garrett (July 21, 2023). "McCray prioritizes mental health issues in 2024 US Senate bid". WISH-TV. Retrieved September 19, 2023.
- ^ Downard, Whitney (June 6, 2023). "Marc Carmichael announces campaign for U.S. Senate". Indiana Capital Chronicle. Retrieved June 7, 2023.
- ^ Bonilla Muñiz, Leslie (December 11, 2023). "Democrat Keith Potts drops out of U.S. Senate race". Indiana Capital Chronicle. Retrieved December 13, 2023.
- ^ "Joe Donnelly plans to stay on as ambassador to the Vatican through 2024, forgoing an Indiana governor or Senate run". Politico. June 13, 2023.
- ^ Wren, Adam; Stokols, Eli; Egan, Lauren (March 7, 2023). "Klain tells Indiana Dems he's not interested in a Senate bid". Politico.
- ^ "Labor 2024 | Indiana State AFL-CIO". inaflcio.org. Retrieved June 18, 2024.
- ^ Bergquist, Garrett (March 2, 2024). "Indiana Libertarians nominate 2024 candidates". WISH-TV. Retrieved March 3, 2024.
- ^ "May 7, 2024 Primary Election Candidates". Indiana Secretary of State. Retrieved January 10, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
- ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Senate Forecast". Split Ticket. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 23, 2024.
- ^ Video
- ^ ActiVote
- ^ ActiVote
- ^ ARW Strategies
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ "Indiana U.S. Senate Election Results". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. ISSN 1553-8095. Retrieved November 5, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Indiana Election Results". INSOS. Retrieved December 13, 2024.
External links
[edit]Official campaign websites