2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana
(Redirected from Steve Held)
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Both Montana seats to the United States House of Representatives | |||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Montana |
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The 2024 United States House of Representatives elections in Montana were held on November 5, 2024, to elect the two U.S. representatives from the state of Montana, one from each of the state's congressional districts. The elections coincided with the U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate, and various state and local elections. The primary elections took place on June 4, 2024.
District 1
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  Zinke: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tranel: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% No Votes | |||||||||||||||||
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The 1st district is based in mountainous Western Montana, including the cities of Missoula, Kalispell, Bozeman and Butte. The incumbent is Republican Ryan Zinke, who was elected with 49.7% of the vote in 2022.[1] He initially had expressed interest in running for U.S. Senate against incumbent Jon Tester, but chose not to do so.[2]
Republican primary
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Ryan Zinke, incumbent U.S. representative[3]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Ryan Zinke
- Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States[5]
- John Bolton, United States National Security Advisor (2018–2019), United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2005–2006)[6]
- Organizations
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Mary Todd (R) | $87,253[a] | $67,177 | $20,075 |
| Ryan Zinke (R) | $5,752,008 | $3,341,562 | $2,520,494 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[9] | |||
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ryan Zinke (incumbent) | 66,409 | 73.74 | |
| Republican | Mary Todd | 23,647 | 26.26 | |
| Total votes | 90,056 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Monica Tranel, lawyer, former Olympic rower, and nominee for this district in 2022[3]
Endorsements
[edit]Monica Tranel
- U.S. representatives
- Lois Frankel, U.S. representative from Florida's 22nd congressional district (2013–present)[11]
- Annie Kuster, U.S. representative for New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district (2013–present)[12]
- Pat Ryan, U.S. representative for New York's 18th congressional district (2023–present)[12]
- Statewide officials
- Brian Schweitzer, former governor of Montana (2005–2013)[13]
- Gretchen Whitmer, Governor of Michigan (2019–present)[14]
- State legislators
- Dave Fern, state representative from the 5th district (2017–present)[13]
- Shannon O'Brien, state senator from the 46th district (2021–present)[15]
- Organizations
- DCCC Red to Blue[16]
- Democratic Majority for Israel[17]
- EMILY's List[18]
- Jewish Democratic Council of America[19]
- League of Conservation Voters[20]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare(Post-primary)[21]
- National Organization for Women PAC[22]
- NewDem Action Fund[12]
- Planned Parenthood Action Fund[23]
- Reproductive Freedom for All[24]
- Labor unions
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Monica Tranel (D) | $2,340,724 | $826,277 | $1,524,332 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[9] | |||
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Monica Tranel | 59,806 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 59,806 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian primary
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Dennis Hayes, remodeling contractor[4]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Ernie Noble, construction worker[4]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Dennis Hayes | 390 | 65.4 | |
| Libertarian | Ernie Noble | 206 | 34.6 | |
| Total votes | 596 | 100.0 | ||
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[26] | Lean R | October 4, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[27] | Lean R | September 15, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] | Lean R | February 23, 2023 |
| Elections Daily[29] | Lean R | September 7, 2023 |
| CNalysis[30] | Lean R | November 16, 2023 |
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Ryan Zinke (R) |
Monica Tranel (D) |
Dennis Hayes (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Impact Research (D)[A] | October 14–17, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 45% | 4% | 5% |
| Guidance Polling and Strategy[B] | October 13–16, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 44% | – | 4% |
| Montana State University | September 30 – October 16, 2024 | (A) | – | 44% | 37% | 4% | 15% |
| Noble Predictive Insights[C] | September 11–14, 2024 | 432 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 49% | 44% | – | 7% |
| 47% | 43% | 3% | 7% | ||||
| DCCC (D) | September 11–13, 2024 | 864 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 45% | – | 9%[c] |
| Impact Research (D)[A] | August 26–29, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 44% | 4% | 5% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ David Binder Research (D)[D] |
August 25–29, 2024 | 310 (LV) | – | 49% | 43% | – | 8% |
| Impact Research (D)[A] | May 2024 | – | – | 46% | 42% | 6% | 6% |
| Impact Research (D)[A] | February 2024 | – | – | 52% | 43% | 0% | 5% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ryan Zinke (incumbent) | 162,704 | 52.4% | |
| Democratic | Monica Tranel | 138,344 | 44.6% | |
| Libertarian | Dennis Hayes | 9,403 | 3.0% | |
| Total votes | 310,451 | 100% | ||
District 2
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 County results Downing: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Driscoll: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 2nd district encompasses much of the state east of the Continental Divide, including the cities of Billings, Great Falls and Helena. The incumbent is Republican Matt Rosendale, who was re-elected with 56.6% of the vote in 2022.[1] He announced in February 2024 that he would run for U.S. Senate against incumbent Jon Tester, but dropped out of the race one week later.[32] On March 8, 2024, Rosendale announced that he would not be seeking any office in 2024.[33]
Republican primary
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Troy Downing, Montana State Auditor (2021–present) and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2018[34]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Elsie Arntzen, Montana Superintendent of Public Instruction (2017–present) and candidate for the at-large district in 2014[35]
- Kyle Austin, pharmacist and candidate for this district in 2022[4]
- Kenneth Bogner, President pro tempore of the Montana Senate (2023–present) from the 19th district (2019–present) and candidate for Lieutenant Governor in 2020[36]
- Ric Holden, former state senator from the 1st district (1995–2003)[37]
- Joel Krautter, former state representative from the 35th district (2019–2021)[37]
- Denny Rehberg, former U.S. Representative from the at-large district (2001–2013), former Lieutenant Governor of Montana (1991–1997), and nominee for U.S. Senate in 1996 and 2012[38]
- Stacy Zinn, retired DEA agent[39]
Withdrawn
[edit]- Matt Rosendale, incumbent U.S. Representative[33]
- Ed Walker, former state senator from the 29th district (2011–2015) and candidate for the at-large district in 2017 (remained on ballot)[40]
Endorsements
[edit]Elsie Arntzen
- U.S. representatives
- Bob Good, chair of the Freedom Caucus (2024–present) and VA-05 (2021–present)[41]
- Harriet Hageman, WY-AL (2023–present)[40]
- Organizations
Ken Bogner
- Executive Branch officials
- Thomas Homan, Acting Director of the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (2017–2018)[40]
Troy Downing
- Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[43]
- U.S. representatives
- Derrick Van Orden, WI-03 (2023–present)[40]
- Organizations
Joel Krautter
Declined to endorse
- U.S. representatives
- Matt Rosendale, MT-02 (2021–present)[40]
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Elsie Arntzen (R) | $871,444[d] | $805,097 | $66,347 |
| Kenneth Bogner (R) | $54,359 | $43,425 | $10,933 |
| Troy Downing (R) | $1,818,816[e] | $1,383,494 | $435,322 |
| Ric Holden (R) | $49,248[f] | $46,540 | $2,708 |
| Joel Krautter (R) | $76,533[g] | $67,136 | $9,397 |
| Denny Rehberg (R) | $601,991[h] | $453,928 | $148,063 |
| Stacy Zinn (R) | $41,460 | $3,091 | $38,369 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[45] | |||
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Elsie Arntzen |
Kenneth Bogner |
Troy Downing |
Ric Holden |
Denny Rehberg |
Stacy Zinn |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cygnal (R)[E] | May 8–9, 2024 | 410 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 5% | 4% | 28% | 2% | 12% | 8% | 3%[i] | 40% |
| Guidant Polling & Strategy[F] | April 14–17, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 10% | – | 38% | – | 26% | – | – | 27% |
| Cygnal (R)[E] | April 15–16, 2024 | 415 (LV) | ± 4.8% | 7% | 4% | 21% | 1% | 11% | 3% | 3%[j] | 51% |
| Moore Information[G] | February 1, 2024 | 500 (LV) | – | 5% | 3% | 16% | 2% | 26% | 2% | 9%[k] | 37% |
Results
[edit]
Downing
- 20-30%
- 30-40%
- 40-50%
Rehberg
- 20-30%
Bogner
- 20-30%
- 30-40%
- 40-50%
- 50-60%
Holden
- 20-30%
- 30-40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Troy Downing | 36,269 | 36.1 | |
| Republican | Denny Rehberg | 17,182 | 17.1 | |
| Republican | Stacy Zinn | 13,581 | 13.5 | |
| Republican | Elsie Arntzen | 9,468 | 9.4 | |
| Republican | Kenneth Bogner | 9,026 | 9.0 | |
| Republican | Ric Holden | 7,108 | 7.1 | |
| Republican | Joel Krautter | 3,432 | 3.4 | |
| Republican | Kyle Austin | 3,177 | 3.2 | |
| Republican | Ed Walker (withdrawn) | 1,168 | 1.2 | |
| Total votes | 100,411 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- John Driscoll, former Public Service Commissioner and nominee for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2008[4]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Ming Cabrera (D) | $60,007[l] | $41,424 | $18,582 |
| Kevin Hamm (D) | $62,689 | $57,628 | $5,061 |
| Steve Held (D) | $86,570[m] | $67,945 | $18,624 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[45] | |||
Results
[edit]
Driscoll
- 30-40%
- 40-50%
- 50-60%
- 60-70%
Held
- 30-40%
- 40-50%
- 50-60%
Cabrera
- 30-40%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Driscoll | 13,420 | 33.3 | |
| Democratic | Steve Held | 10,649 | 26.4 | |
| Democratic | Ming Cabrera | 8,408 | 20.9 | |
| Democratic | Kevin Hamm | 7,813 | 19.4 | |
| Total votes | 40,290 | 100.0 | ||
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[26] | Solid R | February 2, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[27] | Solid R | September 15, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] | Safe R | February 23, 2023 |
| Elections Daily[29] | Safe R | September 7, 2023 |
| CNalysis[30] | Solid R | November 16, 2023 |
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Troy Downing (R) |
John Driscoll (D) |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State University | September 30 – October 16, 2024 | (A) | – | 43% | 26% | 31%[n] |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/ David Binder Research (D)[H] |
August 25–29, 2024 | 290 (LV) | – | 52% | 31% | 17% |
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Troy Downing | 181,548 | 66.0% | |
| Democratic | John Driscoll | 93,549 | 34.0% | |
| Total votes | 272,057 | 100% | ||
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ $76,300 of this total was self-funded by Todd
- ^ a b c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ "Undecided" with 4%
- ^ $750,000 of this total was self-funded by Arntzen
- ^ $1,050,000 of this total was self-funded by Downing
- ^ $32,072 of this total was self-funded by Holden
- ^ $6,240 of this total was self-funded by Krautter
- ^ $450,000 of this total was self-funded by Rehberg
- ^ Joel Krautter with 2%; Kyle Austin with 1%; Ed Walker with 0%
- ^ Joel Krautter with 2%; Kyle Austin with 1; Ed Walker with 0%
- ^ Joel Krautter and Ed Walker with 1%; "Other" with 7%
- ^ $2,740 of this total was self-funded by Cabrera
- ^ $45,000 of this total was self-funded by Held
- ^ Metzger (I) with 4%; Neill (D) with 3%
- Partisan clients
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by Tranel's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Congressional Leadership Fund
- ^ Poll sponsored by Inside Elections
- ^ Poll sponsored by AARP
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Elect Principled Veterans Fund, which supports Downing's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by Downing's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by supporters of Rehberg's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by AARP.
References
[edit]- ^ a b "2022 National House Vote Tracker". Cook Political Report. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
- ^ Warren, Bradley (July 5, 2023). "Congressman Ryan Zinke officially endorses Tim Sheehy for US Senate". Nonstop Local—ABC FOX.
There was speculation Zinke could enter the race, but that speculation now shut down with this endorsement.
- ^ a b Corrin, Noah; Warren, Bradley (July 10, 2023). "Montana Democrat Monica Tranel announces run for U.S. Congress". KTMF. Retrieved July 10, 2023.
Zinke plans to run for reelection, setting up a potential rematch of the 2022 race.
- ^ a b c d e f "Federal Primary 2024". Montana Secretary of State. January 11, 2024.
- ^ Buffington, Posie (March 22, 2024). "Former Pres. Trump endorses Zinke for re-election in Montana's District 1 congressional race". NonStop Local. Retrieved March 22, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Endorsed Candidates". boltonpac.com. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
- ^ "- AIPAC Political Portal". candidates.aipacpac.org. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
- ^ NRA-PVF. "NRA-PVF | Grades | Montana". NRA-PVF. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
- ^ a b "2024 Election United States House - Montana 1st". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved February 2, 2024.
- ^ "Montana 2024 Elections: Montana Primary Results". Montana Free Press. July 3, 2024. Retrieved October 30, 2024.
- ^ "Elect Democratic Women Endorses Monica Tranel in Montana's 1st Congressional District". Elect Democratic Women. August 3, 2023. Retrieved August 24, 2023.
- ^ a b c "NewDem Action Fund Announces New Red-to-Blue Candidate Endorsement Slate". NewDem Action Fund. October 26, 2023. Archived from the original on October 26, 2023. Retrieved October 26, 2023.
- ^ a b Sagner, Denali (July 13, 2023). "Tranel Hones in on Montana's 'Purple DNA' at Kalispell Launch Event". Flathead Beacon. Retrieved August 15, 2023.
- ^ "Fight Like Hell PAC". Fight Like Hell PAC. Retrieved September 30, 2024.
- ^ Montanan, Daily (July 11, 2023). "Tranel announces another bid for Congress". The Missoula Current News - Daily News in Missoula Montana. Retrieved August 15, 2023.
- ^ "Democrats launch their first slate of challengers in the fight for the House majority". NBC News. January 29, 2024. Retrieved January 29, 2024.
- ^ Schneider, Elena (February 8, 2024). "Pro-Israel group wades into several contested Democratic primaries". Politico. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
- ^ Chou, Lauren (September 27, 2023). "EMILYs List Endorses Monica Tranel for Montana's 1st Congressional District". EMILYs List. Archived from the original on September 27, 2023. Retrieved September 27, 2023.
- ^ "Jewish Dems Endorse in Key House and Senate Races, Pledge Resources to Mobilize Jewish Voters". Jewish Democratic Council of America. March 28, 2023.
- ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces Slate of New U.S. House Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Archived from the original on September 28, 2023. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
- ^ NCPSSM. "National Seniors' Group Proudly Endorses Tester, Tranel in Montana". NCPSSM. Retrieved June 24, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Federal Endorsements". NOW PAC. Retrieved February 5, 2024.
- ^ "New Planned Parenthood Action Fund Endorsements: We Can Flip The House By Electing These Reproductive Rights Champions in 2024". www.plannedparenthoodaction.org. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
- ^ "Reproductive Freedom for All Endorses Slate of Champions for the U.S. House". Reproductive Freedom for All. October 24, 2023. Archived from the original on October 24, 2023. Retrieved October 24, 2023.
- ^ a b "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
- ^ a b "2024 House Race Ratings: Another Competitive Fight for Control". Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 3, 2023.
- ^ a b "First 2024 House Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved March 10, 2023.
- ^ a b "Initial House Ratings: Battle for Majority Starts as a Toss-up". Sabato's Crystal Ball. February 23, 2023.
- ^ a b "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. September 13, 2023. Retrieved September 17, 2023.
- ^ a b "2024 House Forecast". November 20, 2023. Retrieved December 29, 2023.
- ^ "Montana First Congressional District Election Results 2024: Zinke vs. Tranel". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 7, 2024.
- ^ Mutnick, Ally; Beavers, Olivia; Everett, Burgess (February 15, 2024). "Rosendale drops Montana Senate bid". Politico.
- ^ a b Schnell, Mychael (March 8, 2024). "Rosendale drops reelection bid, will retire at end of term". The Hill. Retrieved March 8, 2024.
- ^ "Troy Downing announces campaign for Congress". KTVQ. November 1, 2023. Retrieved November 1, 2023.
- ^ West, Bowen (February 12, 2024). "Arntzen announces run for Congress". NBC News. Retrieved February 15, 2024.
- ^ Warren, Bradley; Corrin, Noah (January 9, 2024). "Montana State Senator Ken Bogner announces run for U.S. Congress". KULR-TV. Retrieved January 9, 2024.
- ^ a b Murray, David (September 25, 2023). "Holden joins growing field in run to represent eastern House District". Great Falls Tribune. Retrieved September 25, 2023.
- ^ Lutey, Tom (February 21, 2024). "Denny Rehberg launches U.S. House campaign". Billings Gazette. Retrieved February 21, 2024.
- ^ Buffington, Posie (November 6, 2023). "Stacy Zinn announces run for Montana congressional district two". KULR8. Retrieved November 20, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f Ambarian, Jonathon (April 11, 2024). "Endorsements come in for Montana eastern district primary, some big players still on the sideline". KTVH-DT. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
- ^ Roth, Samantha-Jo (April 3, 2024). "Freedom Caucus chairman endorses Republican in crowded primary for Rosendale House seat - Washington Examiner". The Washington Examiner. Retrieved April 11, 2024.
- ^ "Big Win and Nine New Endorsements". House Freedom Fund. May 8, 2024. Retrieved May 8, 2024.
- ^ Gorman, Reese (April 12, 2024). "Trump endorses Downing for U.S. House race". NBC Montana. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
- ^ "Endorsements". With Honor Fund II. Retrieved May 13, 2024.
- ^ a b "2024 Election United States House - Montana 2nd". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved February 2, 2024.
- ^ Ragar, Shaylee (September 6, 2023). "Another Democrat joins Montana's eastern district U.S. House race". Montana Public Radio. Retrieved September 6, 2023.
- ^ Ehrlick, Darrell (May 16, 2023). "Hamm announces bid for Congress". Daily Montanan.
- ^ "Montana Second Congressional District Election Results 2024: Driscoll vs. Downing". The New York Times. November 5, 2024. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 7, 2024.
External links
[edit]- Official campaign websites for 1st district candidates
- Official campaign websites for 2nd district candidates