2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee
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| Elections in Tennessee |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Tennessee will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Tennessee. Incumbent one-term Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn will face off against state representative Gloria Johnson. This is the first all-woman general election for a Tennessee senate seat.[1]
The primaries took place on August 1, 2024, with Blackburn and Johnson winning their respective party nominations.
Although Gloria Johnson is campaigning for the Senate seat, she is simultaneously seeking re-election to the State House in the 90th District, running unopposed in that race.[2]
Background
[edit]At the federal and state levels, Tennessee is considered to be a strongly red state, having gone to Donald Trump by 23 points in the 2020 presidential election. In Tennessee, Republicans occupy both Senate seats, 8 out of 9 U.S. House seats, supermajorities in both state legislative chambers, and the governor's office.
Due to Tennessee's strong conservative bent, this race is currently considered a "Safe" Republican hold.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Marsha Blackburn, incumbent U.S. Senator (2019–present)[3]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Tres Wittum, legislative policy analyst and candidate for Tennessee's 5th congressional district in 2022[4]
Endorsements
[edit]Marsha Blackburn
- U.S. Executive Branch officials
- Donald Trump, former president of the United States[5]
- Organizations
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Marsha Blackburn (R) | $14,501,964 | $6,339,437 | $8,776,627 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[9] | |||
Results
[edit]
Blackburn
- 80–90%
- >90%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Marsha Blackburn (incumbent) | 367,799 | 89.48% | |
| Republican | Tres Wittum | 43,244 | 10.52% | |
| Write-in | 2 | <0.01% | ||
| Total votes | 411,045 | 100.00% | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Gloria Johnson, state representative from the 90th district (2013–2015, 2019–present) and member of the Tennessee Three[11]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Marquita Bradshaw, staffing consultant and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020[12]
- Lola Brown, minister[4]
- Civil Miller-Watkins, former Fayette County school board member[13]
Declined
[edit]- Joanne Sowell, attorney[14]
Endorsements
[edit]Gloria Johnson
- Individuals
- Ruby Amanfu, musician[15]
- Kyshona Armstrong, musician[15]
- Sam Ashworth, musician[15]
- Mya Byrne, musician[15]
- Brandi Carlile, musician[15]
- Beth Nielsen Chapman, musician[15]
- Shelly Colvin, musician[15]
- Elizabeth Cook, musician[15]
- Brooke Eden, musician[15]
- Kam Franklin, musician[15]
- Mary Gauthier, musician[15]
- Devon Gilfillian, musician[15]
- Emmylou Harris, musician[15]
- Brittany Howard, musician[15]
- Meghan Linsey, musician[15]
- Paul McDonald, musician[15]
- Erin Rae McKaskle, musician[15]
- Morgxn, musician[15]
- Maren Morris, musician[15]
- Katie Pruitt, musician[15]
- Allison Russell, musician[15]
- Amanda Shires, musician[15]
- Lucie Silvas, musician[15]
- Langhorne Slim, musician[15]
- Brittney Spencer, musician[15]
- Lilly Winwood, musician[15]
- Organizations
- Labor unions
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Marquita Bradshaw (D) | $36,054 | $35,691 | $364 |
| Gloria Johnson (D) | $5,046,183 | $3,009,194 | $2,048,985 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[9] | |||
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Marquita Bradshaw |
Gloria Johnson |
Civil Miller-Watkins |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research[A] | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 282 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 7% | 38% | 2% | 1% | 52% |
| Targoz Market Research[A] | December 14–28, 2023 | 251 (LV) | ± 2.66% | 11% | 41% | 2% | 1% | 45% |
Results
[edit]
Johnson
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 80–90%
- >90%
Miller-Watkins
- 40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gloria Johnson | 143,962 | 70.20% | |
| Democratic | Marquita Bradshaw | 44,657 | 21.78% | |
| Democratic | Lola Brown | 10,027 | 4.89% | |
| Democratic | Civil Miller-Watkins | 6,420 | 3.13% | |
| Total votes | 205,066 | 100.00% | ||
Independents
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Tharon Chandler, farmer and Democratic nominee for Tennessee's 7th congressional district in 2016[4]
- Pamela Moses, community activist and convicted felon[4]
- Hastina Robinson, firefighter[4]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[20] | Solid R | November 9, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[21] | Solid R | November 9, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] | Safe R | November 9, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[23] | Safe R | June 8, 2024 |
| Elections Daily[24] | Safe R | May 4, 2023 |
| CNalysis[25] | Safe R | November 21, 2023 |
| RealClearPolitics[26] | Solid R | August 5, 2024 |
Post-primary endorsements
[edit]Marsha Blackburn (R)
- Individuals
- Vivek Ramaswamy, pharmaceutical executive and candidate for president in 2024[27]
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of July 12, 2024 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Marsha Blackburn (R) | $14,501,964 | $6,339,437 | $8,776,627 |
| Gloria Johnson (D) | $5,069,008 | $3,009,194 | $2,048,985 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[9] | |||
Polling
[edit]- Aggregate polls
| Source of poll
aggregation |
Dates
administered |
Dates
updated |
Marsha Blackburn (R) | Gloria Johnson (D) | Undecided | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP | October 1 - May 9, 2024 | September 9, 2024 | 50.5% | 33.0% | 16.5% | Blackburn +17.5 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Marsha Blackburn (R) |
Gloria Johnson (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | July 25 – September 2, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 60% | 40% | – |
| Targoz Market Research[A] | June 20 – July 1, 2024 | 1,124 (RV) | ± 2.77% | 49% | 32% | 19% |
| 944 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 52% | 32% | 16% | ||
| SSRS/Vanderbilt University | April 26 – May 9, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
| Targoz Market Research[A] | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 955 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Targoz Market Research[A] | October 5–16, 2023 | 850 (LV) | ± 2.79% | 49% | 29% | 23% |
Hypothetical polling
- Marsha Blackburn vs. Marquita Bradshaw
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Marsha Blackburn (R) |
Marquita Bradshaw (D) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Targoz Market Research[A] | June 20 – July 1, 2024 | 1,124 (RV) | ± 2.77% | 51% | 33% | 17% |
| 942 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 54% | 33% | 14% | ||
| Targoz Market Research[A] | March 15 – April 2, 2024 | 947 (LV) | ± 2.77% | 46% | 22% | 32% |
| Targoz Market Research[A] | October 5–16, 2023 | 824 (LV) | ± 2.79% | 48% | 36% | 17% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Marsha Blackburn (incumbent) | ||||
| Democratic | Gloria Johnson | ||||
| Independent | Tharon Chandler | N/A | |||
| Independent | Pamela Moses | N/A | |||
| Independent | Hastina Robinson | N/A | |||
| Total votes | |||||
See also
[edit]- Elections in Tennessee
- Political party strength in Tennessee
- Tennessee Democratic Party
- Tennessee Republican Party
- Government of Tennessee
- 2024 United States presidential election in Tennessee
- 2024 Tennessee elections
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ "Results for Women in the August 1st Primaries in Tennessee". cawp.rutgers.edu.
- ^ WBIR Channel 10 (February 7, 2024). Rep. Gloria Johnson running for reelection in the TN House while also running for US Senate. Retrieved August 27, 2024 – via YouTube.
{{cite AV media}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ "Tennessee US Senate Poll". October 17, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e "Candidate Lists | Tennessee Secretary of State". sos.tn.gov. Retrieved April 4, 2024.
- ^ "Trump Endorses Marsha Blackburn for Re-Election: "A Friend and a WINNER" - Sen. Marsha Blackburn Campaign Press Release | LegiStorm". www.legistorm.com. Retrieved August 2, 2024.
- ^ "Support Pro-Israel Candidates". AIPAC PAC. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
- ^ "Press Releases | Maggie's List". maggieslist.org. Retrieved June 25, 2023.
- ^ "Endorsements". Turning Point Action. Retrieved December 14, 2023.
- ^ a b c "2024 Election United States Senate - Tennessee". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
- ^ "August 1, 2024 Republican Primary United States Senate" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved September 14, 2024.
- ^ Kamisar, Ben (September 5, 2023). "Tennessee Democrat reprimanded for gun violence protest is running for Senate". NBC News. Retrieved September 5, 2023.
- ^ Elliott, Stephen (July 20, 2023). "Former Nominee Marquita Bradshaw Running for Senate Again". Nashville Scene. Retrieved July 24, 2023.
- ^ McCall, Holly (October 26, 2023). "Fayette County educator Civil Miller-Watkins enters Democratic primary for 2024 Tenn. U.S. Senate". Tennessee Lookout. Retrieved January 6, 2024.
- ^ Elliott, Stephen (July 14, 2023). "Nashville attorney ends U.S. Senate campaign effort". Nashville Post. Retrieved July 16, 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z Bloom, Madison (March 13, 2024). "Brittany Howard, Allison Russell, Maren Morris, and More Support U.S. Senate Candidate Gloria Johnson With New Song: Listen". Pitchfork. Retrieved March 13, 2024.
- ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Federal Endorsements". NOW PAC. Retrieved May 16, 2024.
- ^ "Our Recommended Candidates". Education Votes. Retrieved February 14, 2024.
- ^ "August 1, 2024 Democratic Primary United States Senate" (PDF). Tennessee Secretary of State. Retrieved September 14, 2024.
- ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate prediction map". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. June 8, 2024. Retrieved June 8, 2024.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
- ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2024". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 5, 2024.
- ^ "Vivek Ramaswamy Stumps for Senator Blackburn in Knoxville". Marsha Blackburn for U.S. Senate. Retrieved August 27, 2024.
External links
[edit]- Official campaign websites