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2018 Vermont gubernatorial election

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For related races, see 2018 United States gubernatorial elections.

2018 Vermont gubernatorial election
← 2016 November 6, 2018 2020 →
Turnout55.6%
 
Nominee Phil Scott Christine Hallquist
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 151,261 110,335
Percentage 55.19% 40.25%
Scott:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Hallquist:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
Governor before election

Phil Scott
Republican

Elected Governor

Phil Scott
Republican

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The 2018 Vermont gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Vermont, concurrently with the election of Vermont's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Phil Scott, who was first elected in 2016, was re-elected to a second term in office.[1] Hallquist's 40.3% was also the worst performance for a Democratic Party candidate since 2008. This was one of eight Republican-held governorships up for election in a state that Hillary Clinton won in the 2016 presidential election.

Despite initial expectations of a potentially close race due to national blue wave, Scott easily won reelection in what became a difficult year for Republicans, winning by 15 percentage points. As of 2022, this election marked the last time a Democratic candidate won a county in a gubernatorial election in Vermont.

Background

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Along with New Hampshire, Vermont is one of only two states where governors are elected to two-year terms. Republican Phil Scott was elected in the 2016 election.[1]

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Eliminated in primary

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Endorsements

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Debates and forums

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Results

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Results by county:
  Scott—70–80%
  Scott—60–70%
  Scott—50–60%
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Phil Scott (incumbent) 24,042 66.67
Republican Keith Stern 11,617 32.22
Republican Write-ins 401 1.11
Total votes 36,060 100.0
Republican Blank votes 700
Republican Overvotes 20

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Nominated

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Eliminated in primary

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  • James Ehlers, executive director of Lake Champlain International and environmentalist[5]
  • John S. Rodgers, current State Senator from Essex County, former State Representative, and construction business owner[6] (write-in candidate)
  • Brenda Siegel, opioid epidemic and Brattleboro hurricane relief activist and worker, former community organizer for Bernie Sanders, southern Vermont nonprofit executive and founding director[7] (also ran in Progressive primary)
  • Ethan Sonneborn, freshman in high school[8] who began his campaign when he was 13 years old.[9] The election was held a few weeks before he entered his freshman year of high school.[10] His campaign was focused on healthcare for all, the environment, economy, and education.[11] Had he won, he would have been the youngest governor in American history.[11] Vermont (as well as Kansas) does not have a minimum age requirement for governor.

Endorsements

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James Ehlers

Organizations

  • AFL-CIO

People

Brenda Siegel

Statewide and local politicians

Businesses

  • Vermont Green Grow Wellness Center

Organizations

  • Emerge Vermont
  • SolutionsToWork

People

  • Mark Hughes, executive director of Justice for All, organizer of Poor Peoples Campaign VT[14]

Debates and forums

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Results

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Results by county:
  Hallquist—60–70%
  Hallquist—50–60%
  Hallquist—40–50%
  Hallquist—30–40%
  Siegel—40–50%
Democratic primary results[15]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Christine Hallquist 27,622 45.07
Democratic James Ehlers 12,668 20.67
Democratic Brenda Siegel 12,260 20.01
Democratic Ethan Sonneborn 4,696 7.66
Democratic John S. Rodgers (write-in) 950 1.55
Democratic Write-ins (other) 3,074 5.02
Total votes 61,279 100.0
Democratic Blank votes 7,997
Democratic Overvotes 68

With this result, Christine Hallquist became the first openly transgender candidate for governor nominated by a major political party in the United States.[16][17]

Progressive primary

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Candidates

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Eliminated in primary

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Write-in
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  • Brenda Siegel (also ran in Democratic primary)

Endorsements

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Brenda Siegel

Statewide and local politicians

  • Mike Mrowicki, state representative
  • Tommy Walz, state representative

Businesses

  • Vermont Green Grow Wellness Center

Organizations

  • Emerge Vermont
  • SolutionsToWork

People

  • Mark Hughes, executive director of Justice for All, organizer of Poor Peoples Campaign VT

Debates and forums

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Results

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[18]
Vermont Progressive Party primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Progressive Brenda Siegel (write-in) 35 8.75
Progressive Write-ins (other) 365 91.2
Total votes 400 100.0
Progressive Blank votes 199

Libertarian nomination

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Candidates

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Withdrawn

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Liberty Union nomination

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Candidates

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Declared

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  • Emily Peyton, candidate for governor in 2014[20]

Independents

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Candidates

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Declared

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Write-in
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Withdrawn

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General election

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Debates

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[27] Safe R October 26, 2018
The Washington Post[28] Lean R November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[29] Safe R November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[30] Safe R November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[31] Safe R November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[32] Likely R November 4, 2018
Daily Kos[33] Likely R November 5, 2018
Fox News[34][a] Likely R November 5, 2018
Politico[35] Lean R November 5, 2018
Governing[36] Safe R November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Endorsements

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Christine Hallquist (D)

US Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials

US senators

US representatives

Statewide and local politicians

  • Martin O'Malley, former governor of Maryland[41]
  • Claire Ayer, state senator[42]
  • Chris Bray, state senator[42]
  • Joey Donovan, state representative[42]
  • Alice Emmons, state representative[42]
  • Helen Head, state representative[42]
  • Matt Hill, state representative[42]
  • Warren Kitzmiller, state representative[42]
  • Gabe Lucke, state representative[42]
  • Curt McCormack, state representative[42]
  • Dick McCormack, state senator[42]
  • Mary Sullivan, state representative[42]

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Phil Scott (R)

Statewide and local politicians

Organizations

Declined to endorse

Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Phil
Scott (R) 		Christine
Hallquist (D) 		Other Undecided
Gravis Marketing[53] October 30 – November 1, 2018 885 ± 3.3% 49% 39% – 12%
Braun Research[54] October 5–14, 2018 495 ± 4.4% 42% 28% 7%[55] 22%
Tulchin Research (D-Vermont Democratic Party)[56] September 23–26, 2018 406 ± 4.9% 50% 42% – –

Results

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2018 Vermont gubernatorial election
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Phil Scott (incumbent) 151,261 55.19% +2.28%
Democratic Christine Hallquist 110,335 40.25% −3.91%
Independent Trevor Barlow 3,266 1.19% N/A
Independent Charles Laramie 2,287 0.83% N/A
Marijuana Cris Ericson 2,129 0.78% N/A
Earth Rights Stephen Marx 1,855 0.68% N/A
Liberty Union Emily Peyton 1,839 0.66% −2.17%
Write-in 1,115 0.41% -0.31%
Total votes 274,087 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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References

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  1. ^ a b c Hallenbeck, Terri; Heintz, Paul (November 9, 2016). "Republican Phil Scott Elected Governor of Vermont". Seven Days. Retrieved November 27, 2016.
  2. ^ Bradley, Pat. "Vermont Gubernatorial Candidate Keith Stern Discusses His Campaign". Archived from the original on April 10, 2018. Retrieved April 9, 2018.
  3. ^ Evans, Brad (February 19, 2018). "Transgender woman to run for governor of Vermont". WPTZ.
  4. ^ Trotta, Daniel (August 15, 2018). "In first, transgender woman wins Democratic nomination for Vermont..." reuters.com.
  5. ^ Hirschfeld, Peter. "Water Quality Advocate James Ehlers To Run For Governor, As Democrat". Retrieved August 3, 2017.
  6. ^ "YCN Vermont Wrap with Keith Hanson 6/16/18". YCN Now. June 16, 2018. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
  7. ^ Walters, John (May 8, 2018). "Walters: Anti-Poverty Advocate Launches Bid for Vermont Governor". Seven Days.
  8. ^ "Thirteen-year-old runs for Governor of Vermont". Burlington Free Press. August 24, 2017. Retrieved August 31, 2017.
  9. ^ McCullum, April (August 8, 2018). "Meet the 14-year-old running for Vermont governor". Burlington Free Press. Retrieved August 14, 2018.
  10. ^ Robinson, Adia (August 14, 2018). "14-year-old is running to be Vermont's next governor". ABC News. Retrieved August 14, 2018.
  11. ^ a b Luz Henning Santiago, Amanda (August 14, 2018). "The website for Vermont's 14-year-old gubernatorial candidate has convinced me he's fit for the job". Mashable. Retrieved August 14, 2018.
  12. ^ "Letter: Mrowicki supports Siegel". reformer.com.
  13. ^ "Brenda Siegel for Vermont". www.facebook.com.
  14. ^ "Mark A. Hughes". www.facebook.com.
  15. ^ ":: Vermont Election Night Results ::". vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us. Archived from the original on August 11, 2017. Retrieved August 15, 2018.
  16. ^ "Transgender candidate makes history with win in Vermont governor primary". ABC News. August 15, 2018.
  17. ^ Bidgood, Jess (August 14, 2018). "Christine Hallquist, a Transgender Woman, Wins Vermont Governor's Primary". The New York Times.
  18. ^ ":: Vermont Election Night Results ::". vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us. Archived from the original on August 11, 2017. Retrieved August 15, 2018.
  19. ^ "2018 Vermont Libertarian Party Convention Summary". May 3, 2018. Archived from the original on July 24, 2018. Retrieved July 23, 2018.
  20. ^ a b "Archived copy". Archived from the original on August 14, 2018. Retrieved August 13, 2018.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  21. ^ "Candidates - Elections - Vermont Secretary of State". www.sec.state.vt.us. Archived from the original on June 1, 2016. Retrieved August 12, 2018.
  22. ^ Kaiser, Jonas (December 23, 2020). "How YouTube helps form homogeneous online communities". Brookings.edu. Retrieved December 25, 2022.
  23. ^ Daro, Ishmael; Lytvyneko, Jane. "Right-Wing YouTubers Think It's Only A Matter Of Time Before They Get Kicked Off The Site". Buzzfeed News. Retrieved December 25, 2022.
  24. ^ Thompson, Stuart (March 11, 2022). "The far right complains after the search engine DuckDuckGo vows to limit Russian propaganda". The New York Times. Retrieved December 25, 2022.
  25. ^ "YouTube Star Styxhexenhammer - aka Tarl Warwick - Running for Vermont Governor". thegoldwater.com. Archived from the original on August 15, 2018. Retrieved August 15, 2018.
  26. ^ "Barney joins Vermont governor's race as independent". burlingtonfreepress.com.
  27. ^ "2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
  28. ^ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
  29. ^ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
  30. ^ "2018 Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  31. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
  32. ^ "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
  33. ^ "2018 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.[permanent dead link‍]
  34. ^ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News. October 10, 2021.
  35. ^ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
  36. ^ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Archived from the original on October 21, 2018. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
  37. ^ Barack Obama. "Today, I'm proud to endorse even more Democratic candidates who aren't just running against something, but for something—to expand opportunity for all of us and to restore dignity, honor, and compassion to public service. They deserve your vote". Twitter.
  38. ^ "VT Insights: Hallquist rakes in endorsements from Obama, Biden, Warren and Sanders".
  39. ^ "Biden endorses Hallquist for governor". wcax.com. Retrieved March 5, 2023.
  40. ^ a b c d e f "Supporters".
  41. ^ Martin O'Malley. "Proud to support @christineforvt, a leader in green energy and health care for the state of Vermont". Twitter.
  42. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k "Christine Hallquist - Posts". Facebook. July 23, 2018. Retrieved July 26, 2018.
  43. ^ Battipaglia, Helena (September 12, 2018). "'Supernatural' actor supports Democratic gubernatorial candidate". www.mynbc5.com. WPTZ.
  44. ^ Ocasio-Cortez, Alexandria [@Ocasio2018] (August 14, 2018). "Incredible and groundbreaking victory. Congratulations @christineforvt & shout out to Vermont voters for continuing VT's legacy of courageous inclusion & advocacy for all people" (Tweet). Retrieved October 16, 2018 – via Twitter.
  45. ^ Tinney, Don (August 28, 2018). "Vermont-NEA Recommends Hallquist for Governor". www.vtnea.org. Vermont-NEA Board.
  46. ^ Peters, Stephen (August 29, 2018). "HRC Endorses Christine Hallquist for Governor of Vermont | Human Rights Campaign". Human Rights Campaign.
  47. ^ Byrne, Robert (May 22, 2018). "Victory Fund Endorses 24 More LGBTQ Candidates for 2018, Spotlights Five New Historic Races". LGBTQ Victory Fund. LGBTQ Victory Fund.
  48. ^ Sandberg, Stephanie (July 26, 2018). "LPAC Announces 5 New Endorsements for Local Office as Primaries Approach - LPAC". LPAC. Archived from the original on September 1, 2018. Retrieved September 1, 2018.
  49. ^ "Republican Leaders Endorse Governor Phil Scott". Phil Scott for Vermont. August 6, 2018.
  50. ^ a b "Governor Jim Douglas and Lt. Governor Brian Dubie Endorse Governor Phil Scott for Reelection". Phil Scott for Vermont. August 3, 2018.
  51. ^ "Phil Scott Receives Small-Business Endorsement in the Race for Governor". NFIB. October 9, 2018.
  52. ^ Landen, Xander (October 7, 2018). "Planned Parenthood declines to endorse in governor's race". VTDigger.
  53. ^ Gravis Marketing
  54. ^ Braun Research
  55. ^ Trevor Barlow (I), Cris Ericson (I), Charles Laramie (I), and Emily Peyton (LU) with 1%; none/write in/other with 3%
  56. ^ Tulchin Research (D-Vermont Democratic Party) Archived 2018-10-02 at the Wayback Machine
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Official campaign websites

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