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2018 United States Senate election in Arizona

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2018 United States Senate election in Arizona
← 2012 November 6, 2018 2024 →
Turnout64.85% Increase[1]
 
Nominee Kyrsten Sinema Martha McSally
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 1,191,100 1,135,200
Percentage 49.96% 47.61%
Sinema:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
McSally:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
     No data
U.S. senator before election

Jeff Flake
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Kyrsten Sinema
Democratic

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The 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona took place on November 6, 2018.[2] Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake did not seek a second term. The election was held concurrently with a gubernatorial election, other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, and various other state and local elections.

Primaries were held on August 28, 2018,[3] three days after the death of longtime U.S. Senator John McCain.[4] Martha McSally won the Republican nomination, while Kyrsten Sinema won the Democratic nomination. Green Party candidate Angela Green was also on the ballot, but ended her campaign and endorsed Sinema before Election Day.[5]

The Associated Press called the race for Sinema on November 12, 2018,[6] and McSally conceded that day.[7] Sinema became the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona since 1988. McSally was subsequently appointed by Governor Doug Ducey to the other vacant Senate seat in Arizona, left open after McCain's death and then held on an interim basis by Jon Kyl.

Background

[edit]

Arizona, located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in 1912, the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of Republicans Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover, the state voted for Democrats until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only by Bill Clinton's narrow victory in 1996. Since then, the state had remained Republican, and was won by Donald Trump with a 3.5% margin in 2016, although Trump's margin of victory was much smaller than that of past Republican presidential nominees.[8][better source needed]

Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake announced in October 2017 that he would retire at the end of his current term instead of seeking reelection for another term in 2018.[9] Flake had previously indicated his intent to run for reelection in March 2017. However, he was considered vulnerable due to persistently low approval ratings, a poor relationship with President Trump, and the threat of a primary challenge from former state senator Kelli Ward, who promised to run on a more pro-Trump platform. Additionally, he had won his first term in 2012 by only 3 percentage points, even though Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney won Arizona by 9.[10][11][12]

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

On the ballot

[edit]
U.S. Representative Martha McSally at the launch of her senatorial bid in January 2018
Former State Senator Kelli Ward at a campaign event prior to the Republican primary in August 2018

Failed to file

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Martha McSally

Federal officials

United States Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

Mayors

Individuals

  • Suzanne Klapp, Scottsdale city councilwoman[49]

Organizations

Kelli Ward

U.S. Senators

U.S. representatives

Local officials

U.S. military personnel

Individuals

Organizations

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Arpaio 		Martha
McSally 		Kelli
Ward 		Other Undecided
Data Orbital[74] August 21–22, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 18% 48% 22% 1% 8%
OH Predictive Insights[75] August 14–15, 2018 578 ± 4.1% 13% 47% 27% – 12%
OH Predictive Insights[76] July 23–25, 2018 576 ± 4.1% 15% 35% 27% – 23%
Gravis Marketing[77] June 27 – July 2, 2018 501 ± 4.4% 24% 36% 27% – 14%
Emerson College[78] June 21–22, 2018 305 ± 5.9% 18% 32% 19% 7%[79] 23%
Data Orbital[80] June 19–21, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 17% 38% 23% 2% 21%
Marist College[81] June 17–21, 2018 371 ± 6.7% 21% 30% 28% <1% 21%
OH Predictive Insights[82] June 11–12, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 14% 39% 25% – 22%
Remington (R)[83][A] May 23–24, 2018 2,011 ± 2.3% 25% 42% 23% – 10%
Magellan Strategies (R)[84] April 11–12 and 15, 2018 755 ± 3.6% 26% 36% 25% 6% 7%
OH Predictive Insights[85] April 10–11, 2018 302 ± 5.6% 22% 27% 36% – 15%
Data Orbital[86] January 11–15, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 22% 31% 19% – 27%
OH Predictive Insights[87] January 9, 2018 504 ± 4.4% 29% 31% 25% – 15%
WPA Intelligence (R)[88][A] November 15–16, 2017 500 ± 4.4% – 38% 36% – 26%
OH Predictive Insights[89] November 9, 2017 323 ± 5.5% – 34% 42% – 24%
Revily (R)[90][B] October 28–31, 2017 380 ± 3.0% – 21% 32% 15%[91] 34%
Hypothetical polling

with Jay Heiler

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jay
Heiler 		Martha
McSally 		Matt
Salmon 		David
Schweikert 		John
Shadegg 		Kelli
Ward 		Undecided
Data Orbital[92] October 26–28, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 1% 19% 10% 5% 4% 26% 28%

with Jeff Flake

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jeff
Flake 		Jeff
DeWit 		Nicholas
Tutora 		Kelli
Ward 		Other Undecided
GBA Strategies[93] August 30 – September 7, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 31% – – 58% – 11%
JMC Analytics (R)[94] August 26–27, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 21% – 3% 47% – 29%
HighGround Public Affairs[95] August 18–19, 2017 273 ± 5.9% 28% – – 43% 5% 24%
Political Marketing International (R-Ward)[96] February 7, 2017 921 ± 5.0% 23% – – 30% – 47%
Remington Research Group[97] November 15–16, 2016 1,122 ± 2.9% 30% 38% – 15% – 17%
33% 42% – – – 25%
35% 35% – – – 30%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  McSally
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Arpaio
  •   30–40%
Republican primary results[98]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Martha McSally 357,626 54.57%
Republican Kelli Ward 180,926 27.61%
Republican Joe Arpaio 116,555 17.79%
Write-in 191 0.03%
Total votes 655,298 100.00%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

On the ballot

[edit]
U.S. Representative Kyrsten Sinema at a campaign event in October 2018
Attorney Deedra Abboud at a campaign event in April 2017

Failed to file

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]
  • Jim Moss, businessman, activist and former teacher[106][107]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Deedra Abboud

Organizations

Kyrsten Sinema

Federal officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State and local politicians

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Deedra
Abboud 		Kyrsten
Sinema 		Other Undecided
Data Orbital[168] June 25–27, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 7% 63% 2% 29%
Emerson College[169] June 21–22, 2018 260 ± 6.2% 8% 51% 12%[170] 30%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Sinema
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Democratic primary results[98]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kyrsten Sinema 404,170 79.25%
Democratic Deedra Abboud 105,800 20.75%
Total votes 509,970 100.00%

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Removed

[edit]

Green primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Removed

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Green
  •   90-100%
No votes
  •   
Green primary results[98]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Angela Green (write-in) 389 100.00%
Total votes 389 100.00%

General election

[edit]

Debates

[edit]
Sinema and McSally in a 2018 senatorial debate

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[174] Tossup October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[175] Tilt D (flip) November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[176] Lean D (flip) November 5, 2018
CNN[177] Tossup October 30, 2018
RealClearPolitics[178] Tossup November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[179] Lean D (flip) November 6, 2018
Daily Kos[180] Tossup October 26, 2018
Fox News[181] Tossup October 30, 2018

Endorsements

[edit]
Martha McSally (R)

U.S. executive branch Officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. representatives

Governors

State officials

Local-level officials

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Kyrsten Sinema (D)

Former U.S. executive branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State and local politicians

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Fundraising

[edit]
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party) Total receipts Total disbursements Cash on hand
Kyrsten Sinema (D) $19,287,249 $20,249,341 $1,301,542
Martha McSally (R) $16,211,836 $13,688,178 $2,523,657
Source: Federal Election Commission[225]

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Martha
McSally (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (D) 		Angela
Green (G) 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[226] November 4–5, 2018 1,217 ± 2.8% 47% 45% – 2% 6%
HarrisX[227] November 3–5, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% 49% – – –
HarrisX[228] November 2–4, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 46% 47% – – –
OH Predictive Insights[229] November 2–3, 2018 631 ± 3.9% 49% 48% 0% – 1%
Emerson College[230] November 1–3, 2018 758 ± 3.7% 48% 49% 2% – 2%
HarrisX[231] November 1–3, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 48% 46% – – –
Research Co.[232] November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 44% 45% – 1% 10%
HarrisX[233] October 31 – November 2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 44% – – –
Gravis Marketing[234] October 24 – November 2, 2018 1,165 ± 2.9% 47% 46% – – 7%
HarrisX[235] October 30 – November 1, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 48% 42% – – –
The Trafalgar Group (R)[236] October 30 – November 1, 2018 2,166 ± 2.1% 47% 50% – 2% 1%
HarrisX[237] October 29–31, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 49% 42% – – –
Vox Populi Polling[238] October 27–30, 2018 677 ± 3.7% 48% 52% – – –
HarrisX[239] October 24–30, 2018 1,400 ± 2.6% 48% 43% – – –
FOX News[240] October 27–29, 2018 643 LV ± 3.5% 46% 46% – 3% 5%
710 RV ± 3.5% 44% 45% – 4% 6%
CNN/SSRS[241] October 24–29, 2018 702 LV ± 4.4% 47% 51% – 0% 1%
867 RV ± 4.0% 45% 48% – 0% 3%
HighGround Public Affairs[242] October 26–28, 2018 400 ± 4.9% 47% 45% 4% – 5%
NBC News/Marist College[243] October 23–27, 2018 506 LV ± 5.4% 44% 47% 6% <1% 3%
44% 50% – 2% 4%
793 RV ± 4.4% 43% 45% 7% <1% 5%
43% 49% – 2% 6%
CBS News/YouGov[244] October 23–26, 2018 972 ± 4.1% 44% 47% – 3% 5%
Ipsos[245] October 17–26, 2018 799 ± 4.0% 48% 46% – 3% 3%
OH Predictive Insights[246] October 22–23, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 52% 45% 1% – 2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[247] October 15–19, 2018 606 ± 4.2% 48% 46% 1% – 6%
Data Orbital[248] October 16–17, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% 47% 3% 1% 8%
Change Research (D)[249] October 9–10, 2018 783 – 44% 44% – – 11%
CBS News/YouGov[250] October 2–5, 2018 898 – 44% 47% – 3% 6%
OH Predictive Insights[251] October 1–2, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 47% 41% 4% – 8%
FOX News[252] September 29 – October 2, 2018 716 LV ± 3.5% 45% 47% – 2% 6%
806 RV ± 3.5% 44% 45% – 2% 8%
Vox Populi Polling[253] September 29 – October 1, 2018 702 ± 3.5% 52% 49% – – –
Suffolk University[254] September 27–30, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 42% 45% 2% 0% 11%
Latino Decisions[255] September 10–25, 2018 463 LV – 41% 47% – – 11%
610 RV – 37% 43% – – 17%
Emerson College[256] September 19–21, 2018 650 ± 4.4% 39% 45% – 4% 13%
NBC News/Marist College[257] September 16–20, 2018 564 LV ± 4.7% 43% 45% 6% <1% 6%
45% 48% – <1% 7%
763 RV ± 4.2% 41% 44% 6% <1% 8%
44% 47% – <1% 9%
CNN/SSRS[258] September 11–15, 2018 761 LV ± 4.3% 43% 50% – 0% 3%
854 RV ± 4.1% 41% 48% – 1% 6%
Ipsos[259] September 5–14, 2018 1,016 ± 4.0% 44% 47% – 4% 5%
TargetSmart (D)[260] September 8–13, 2018 800 ± 4.0% 46% 51% – 1% 3%
FOX News[261] September 8–11, 2018 710 LV ± 3.5% 44% 47% – 2% 5%
801 RV ± 3.5% 42% 46% – 3% 7%
Gravis Marketing[262] September 5–7, 2018 882 ± 3.3% 49% 48% – – 3%
OH Predictive Insights[263] September 5–6, 2018 597 ± 4.0% 49% 46% – – 6%
Data Orbital[264] September 4–6, 2018 550 ± 4.2% 42% 46% – 2%[265] 9%
OH Predictive Insights[76] July 23–24, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 44% 48% – – 8%
Gravis Marketing[266] June 27 – July 2, 2018 925 ± 3.2% 39% 43% – – 19%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[267] June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,290 ± 4.5% 44% 48% – – 7%
Emerson College[268] June 21–22, 2018 650 ± 4.0% 32% 40% – 9% 20%
CBS News/YouGov[269] June 19–22, 2018 869 LV – 37% 45% – 7% 10%
998 RV ± 3.7% 34% 41% – 8% 14%
NBC News/Marist College[270] June 17–21, 2018 839 ± 4.5% 38% 49% – 2% 11%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[271] April 2–23, 2018 1,667 ± 4.0% 42% 51% – – 7%
OH Predictive Insights[272] April 10–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 42% 48% – – 10%
Public Policy Polling (D)[273][C] March 15–16, 2018 547 ± 4.2% 41% 46% – – 13%
OH Predictive Insights[89] November 9, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 45% 46% – – 9%
Revily (R)[90][B] October 28–31, 2017 850 ± 3.4% 29% 33% – – 37%
Hypothetical polling

with Kelli Ward

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Kelli
Ward (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (D) 		Other Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[76] July 23–24, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 41% 51% – 8%
Gravis Marketing[274] June 27 – July 2, 2018 925 ± 3.2% 37% 46% – 17%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[267] June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,290 ± 4.5% 41% 52% – 7%
Emerson College[275] June 21–22, 2018 650 ± 4.0% 26% 43% 8% 23%
YouGov[276] June 19–22, 2018 867 LV ± 3.7% 38% 46% 6% 9%
996 RV 35% 43% 7% 14%
Marist College[81] June 17–21, 2018 839 ± 4.5% 38% 48% 2% 12%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[271] April 2–23, 2018 1,667 ± 4.0% 43% 51% – 6%
OH Predictive Insights[272] April 10–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 40% 50% – 10%
OH Predictive Insights[89] November 9, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 43% 46% – 11%
Revily (R-Ward)[277] October 28–31, 2017 850 ± 3.4% 34% 33% – 33%
HighGround Public Affairs[278] October 23–26, 2017 500 ± 4.4% 27% 34% – 39%
HighGround Public Affairs[95] August 18–19, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 31% 32% – 38%

with Joe Arpaio

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Joe
Arpaio (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (D) 		Other Undecided
OH Predictive Insights[76] July 23–24, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 36% 54% – 10%
Gravis Marketing[279] June 27 – July 2, 2018 925 ± 3.2% 33% 52% – 14%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[267] June 11 – July 2, 2018 1,290 ± 4.5% 34% 57% – 9%
Emerson College[280] June 21–22, 2018 650 ± 4.0% 30% 54% 8% 9%
YouGov[276] June 19–22, 2018 868 LV ± 3.7% 29% 49% 13% 8%
996 RV 28% 45% 13% 11%
Marist College[81] June 17–21, 2018 839 ± 4.5% 32% 57% 2% 9%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[271] April 2–23, 2018 1,667 ± 4.0% 32% 61% – 7%
OH Predictive Insights[272] April 10–11, 2018 600 ± 4.0% 33% 59% – 8%

with generic Republican and generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Morning Consult[281] June 29 – July 9, 2018 1,641 ± 2.0% 35% 42% 23%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[282] March 15–16, 2018 547 ± 4.2% 47% 45% 8%

with Jeff Flake

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jeff
Flake (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (D) 		Undecided
GBA Strategies[93] August 30 – September 7, 2017 600 ± 4.0% 40% 47% 13%
HighGround Public Affairs[95] August 18–19, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 33% 41% 27%
Public Policy Polling[283] May 13–15, 2016 896 ± 3.3% 38% 36% 27%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Jeff
Flake (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line)[284] July 31 – August 1, 2017 704 ± 2.0% 31% 47% 22%

with Matt Salmon

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin
of error 		Matt
Salmon (R) 		Kyrsten
Sinema (D) 		Undecided
Revily (R-Ward)[277] October 28–31, 2017 850 ± 3.4% 30% 32% 38%

Results

[edit]

The race was too close to call on election day.[285] On November 7, 2018 (one day after the election), KGUN 9 reported that McSally held a narrow lead of 0.9%, with thousands of ballots still uncounted.[286] On November 8, Politico reported that Sinema had taken a 9,610-vote lead.[287] Due to the closeness of the vote count, the Associated Press and other major news outlets did not call the race for Sinema until November 12, 2018, six days after the election.[288] McSally conceded the race to Sinema that day.[289] The results were certified on December 3, 2018.[290]

This was the first Senate election won by a Democrat in Arizona since 1988.[289] Sinema is the first woman to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Arizona.[291]

United States Senate election in Arizona, 2018[1]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Kyrsten Sinema 1,191,100 49.96% +3.76%
Republican Martha McSally 1,135,200 47.61% −1.62%
Green Angela Green 57,442 2.41% N/A
Write-in 566 0.02% N/A
Total votes 2,384,308 100.00% N/A
Democratic gain from Republican
By county
County[292] Kyrsten Sinema
Democratic 		Martha McSally
Republican 		Angela Green
Green 		Write-in Margin Total votes
# % # % # % # % # %
Apache 16,298 64.97 7,810 31.13 961 3.83 18 0.07 8,488 33.83 25,087
Cochise 17,383 38.16 26,929 59.12 1,212 2.66 25 0.05 -9,546 -20.96 45,549
Coconino 34,240 61.94 19,249 34.82 1,757 3.18 34 0.06 14,991 27.12 55,280
Gila 7,643 37.28 12,180 59.42 674 3.29 2 0.01 -4,537 -22.13 20,499
Graham 3,368 31.76 6,870 64.77 363 3.42 5 0.05 -3,502 -33.02 10,606
Greenlee 1,042 40.59 1,416 55.16 108 4.21 1 0.04 -374 -14.57 2,567
La Paz 1,609 31.72 3,265 64.36 199 3.92 0 0.00 -1,656 -32.64 5,073
Maricopa 732,761 50.96 672,505 46.77 32,371 2.25 315 0.02 60,256 4.19 1,437,952
Mohave 19,214 26.88 50,209 70.25 2,027 2.84 19 0.03 -30,995 -43.37 71,469
Navajo 16,624 45.37 18,767 51.22 1,238 3.38 11 0.03 -2,143 -5.85 36,640
Pima 221,242 56.65 160,550 41.11 8,710 2.23 66 0.02 60,692 15.54 390,568
Pinal 50,395 42.93 63,782 54.33 3,183 2.71 35 0.03 -13,387 -11.40 117,395
Santa Cruz 9,241 68.51 3,828 28.38 418 3.10 1 0.01 5,413 40.13 13,488
Yavapai 40,160 37.06 65,308 60.26 2,870 2.65 30 0.03 -25,148 -23.21 108,368
Yuma 19,880 45.42 22,532 51.48 1,351 3.09 4 0.01 -2,652 -6.06 43,767
Totals 1,191,100 49.96 1,135,200 47.61 57,442 2.41 566 0.02 55,900 2.34 2,384,308

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

By congressional district

[edit]

Sinema won 5 of 9 congressional districts.[293]

District Sinema McSally Representative
1st 50.64% 46.47% Tom O'Halleran
2nd 52.63% 45.23% Ann Kirkpatrick
3rd 63.9% 32.93% Raúl Grijalva
4th 32.85% 64.49% Paul Gosar
5th 42.35% 55.54% Andy Biggs
6th 47.4% 50.81% David Schweikert
7th 75.43% 21.19% Ruben Gallego
8th 42.88% 54.89% Debbie Lesko
9th 61.37% 36.41% Greg Stanton

Aftermath

[edit]

On December 18, 2018, Governor Doug Ducey appointed McSally to fill Arizona's other Senate seat. The seat was left vacant after the resignation of Jon Kyl, who himself had been appointed following the August 25, 2018 death of John McCain.[294] Both Sinema and McSally were sworn in with the 116th United States Congress on January 3, 2019,[295] marking the first time in history that Arizona was represented by two women in the United States Senate and making Arizona the second state to be represented by two women from different parties. Ducey stipulated that Sinema would be sworn in first, making her the senior senator; this way, he said, the decision of Arizona's voters would be respected.[citation needed]

Under Arizona law, McSally's appointment was only valid for the duration of the 116th Congress, and a special election for her seat was held in November 2020 to determine who would finish the remainder of McCain's unexpired term (which expired in 2023). McSally was defeated by Democrat Mark Kelly in that special election.[296][297]

Sinema would later leave the Democratic Party to become an independent in December 2022, although she would continue to caucus with them in the Senate until the end of her term.

Voter demographics

[edit]
Edison Research exit poll
Demographic subgroup Sinema McSally No
answer 		% of
voters
Gender
Men 49 49 2 47
Women 51 47 2 53
Age
18–24 years old N/A N/A N/A 4
25–29 years old N/A N/A N/A 4
30–39 years old 57 39 4 17
40–49 years old 50 48 2 17
50–64 years old 44 55 1 29
65 and older 51 48 1 29
Race
White 45 53 2 75
Black N/A N/A N/A 2
Latino 68 30 2 18
Asian N/A N/A N/A 1
Other N/A N/A N/A 3
Race and gender
White men 42 55 3 34
White women 47 52 1 41
Black men N/A N/A N/A 1
Black women N/A N/A N/A 1
Latino men 66 32 2 9
Latina women 70 28 2 9
Others N/A N/A N/A 4
Education
High school or less 50 46 4 25
Some college education 45 54 1 28
Associate Degree 43 53 4 10
Bachelor's Degree 52 47 3 23
Advanced degree 62 37 1 14
Education and race
White college graduates 55 45 N/A 27
White no college degree 39 58 3 48
Non-white college graduates 72 27 1 9
Non-white no college degree 65 33 2 16
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees 56 44 N/A 15
White women without college degrees 42 56 2 26
White men with college degrees 53 47 N/A 12
White men without college degrees 35 61 4 22
Non-whites 68 31 1 25
Military service
Veteran 38 59 3 14
Non-veteran 54 45 1 86
Income
Under $30,000 62 34 4 15
$30,000-$49,999 63 36 1 18
$50,000-$99,999 48 49 3 33
$100,000-$199,999 41 58 1 24
Over $200,000 44 56 N/A 9
Party ID
Democrats 97 3 N/A 32
Republicans 12 86 2 38
Independents 50 47 3 31
Party by gender
Democratic men 94 6 N/A 14
Democratic women 99 1 N/A 17
Republican men 6 91 3 15
Republican women 16 83 1 23
Independent men 50 47 3 18
Independent women 50 47 3 13
Ideology
Liberals 94 6 N/A 22
Moderates 63 35 2 38
Conservatives 14 84 2 40
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 53 44 3 15
No 48 50 2 85
Most important issue facing the country
Health care 77 20 3 42
Immigration 16 83 1 31
Economy 39 60 1 18
Gun policy N/A N/A N/A 7
Area type
Urban 60 39 1 43
Suburban 44 54 2 51
Rural N/A N/A N/A 6
Source: CNN[298]

Notes

[edit]

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by McSally's campaign.
  2. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Ward's campaign.
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by Protect Our Care, an Affordable Care Act advocacy group, and is affiliated with Democratic candidates.

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[edit]
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  187. ^ Donald J. Trump. "Martha McSally is an extraordinary woman. She was a very talented fighter jet pilot and is now a highly respected member of Congress. She is Strong on Crime, the Border and our under siege 2nd Amendment. Loves our Military and our Vets. Has my total and complete Endorsement!". Twitter. Archived from the original on August 29, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
  188. ^ John Boozman. "As a USAF fighter pilot, @MarthaMcSally served bravely & honorably—blazing a bold trail for girls and young women. In Congress she's a leader and powerful advocate for our military, veterans & border security. She'd be a great addition to the US Senate. Good luck Martha! #AZSen". Twitter.
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  206. ^ "Obama endorses Kyrsten Sinema and Democrats in Arizona governor, AG races". Retrieved October 16, 2018.
  207. ^ Brian Schatz. "I'm also sending money to @kyrstensinema because she's in a very tough race for Senate in Arizona. Please help". Twitter. Archived from the original on October 9, 2018. Retrieved October 24, 2018.
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[edit]

Official campaign websites

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