2008 United States presidential election in Vermont
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| Elections in Vermont |
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The 2008 United States presidential election in Vermont took place on November 4, 2008, concurrent with the federal election in all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose three representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
Vermont was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama with 67.46%, to Republican John McCain's 30.45%, a Democratic victory margin of 37.01%.
Obama carried every county by more than 60% of the vote with the exception of Essex County, which he won with 56%. He also broke 70% in 3 counties. A very liberal Northeastern state, Vermont was the second most Democratic state in the nation, weighing in as a whopping 30% more Democratic than the national average in the 2008 election. Obama's landslide win in Vermont outperformed Lyndon Johnson's 1964 Democratic landslide in the state, making the results of 2008 the strongest Democratic victory in Vermont's history.
Vermont was one of three states, along with Obama's home state of Illinois and Biden's home state of Delaware, where his 2008 presidential performance outperformed Franklin Delano Roosevelt in all four of his runs and Lyndon Johnson in his landslide 1964 victory.
To date, this is the last time that the town of Maidstone voted Democratic and the last time that the town of Stratton voted Republican.
Primaries
[edit]Campaign
[edit]Predictions
[edit]There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report[1] | Likely D |
| Cook Political Report[2] | Solid D |
| The Takeaway[3] | Solid D |
| Electoral-vote.com[4] | Solid D |
| Washington Post[5] | Solid D |
| Politico[6] | Solid D |
| RealClearPolitics[7] | Solid D |
| FiveThirtyEight[5] | Solid D |
| CQ Politics[8] | Solid D |
| The New York Times[9] | Solid D |
| CNN[10] | Safe D |
| NPR[5] | Solid D |
| MSNBC[5] | Solid D |
| Fox News[11] | Likely D |
| Associated Press[12] | Likely D |
| Rasmussen Reports[13] | Safe D |
Polling
[edit]Obama won every single pre-election poll, and each with a double-digit margin of victory. The final 3 polls averaged Obama leading 59% to 35%.[14]
Fundraising
[edit]Obama raised a total of $2,071,271 in the state. McCain raised $206,395.[15]
Advertising and visits
[edit]Neither campaign spent any money on advertising in Vermont.[16] Neither campaign visited the state.[17]
Analysis
[edit]Vermont was once the quintessential Yankee Republican state. It identified with the newly formed GOP in 1856 and remained in the Republican fold for over 130 years. From 1856 to 1988, it only voted for a Democrat once, in Lyndon Johnson's 44-state landslide of 1964. Vermont and Maine were the only states that Franklin D. Roosevelt didn't carry in any of his four elections.
However, the brand of Republicanism practiced in Vermont has historically been a moderate one. Coupled with an influx of more liberal newcomers from out of state, this made Vermont considerably friendlier to Democrats as the national GOP moved further to the right. After narrowly supporting George H. W. Bush in 1988, Vermont gave Bill Clinton a 16-point margin in 1992. Republicans have not seriously contested the state since then, and Vermont is now reckoned as part of a bloc of solidly blue states spanning most of the Northeast.
The 2008 race kept this tradition going. Obama won with 67% of the vote to McCain's 30%. The state was called for Obama almost as soon as the polls closed, and was the first state called for Obama. Obama was the first Democrat to get over 70% of the vote in any Vermont county since 1964, and the first for either party since 1972.
Vermont was Obama's second-best state and his best in the contiguous 48 states; only topped by the staggering 71% he received in Hawaii, the state where he was born. The Obama-Biden ticket won every county in the state, including several northeastern counties which had a history of voting Republican.[18] Obama also performed better than John Kerry in every county.[18] As a measure of how Republican Vermont once was, George W. Bush was at the time the only Republican to win the White House without carrying Vermont.
Results
[edit]| 2008 United States presidential election in Vermont | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | Barack Obama | Joe Biden | 219,262 | 67.46% | 3 | |
| Republican | John McCain | Sarah Palin | 98,974 | 30.45% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader | Matt Gonzalez | 3,339 | 1.03% | 0 | |
| Write-ins* | Write-ins | 1,464 | 0.45% | 0 | ||
| Libertarian | Bob Barr | Wayne Allyn Root | 1,067 | 0.33% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Chuck Baldwin | Darrell Castle | 500 | 0.15% | 0 | |
| Others* | Others | 440 | 0.14% | 0 | ||
| Totals | 325,046 | 100.00% | 3 | |||
| Voter turnout (Voting age population) | 66.7% | |||||
- Write-ins include Cynthia McKinney, Green.
- Others include Róger Calero, Socialist Workers; Gloria La Riva, Socialism and Liberation; and Brian Moore, Liberty Union.[19]
By county
[edit]| County | Barack Obama Democratic |
John McCain Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Addison | 13,202 | 68.62% | 5,667 | 29.46% | 369 | 1.92% | 7,535 | 39.16% | 19,238 |
| Bennington | 12,524 | 65.47% | 6,133 | 32.06% | 472 | 2.47% | 6,391 | 33.41% | 19,129 |
| Caledonia | 8,900 | 60.43% | 5,472 | 37.15% | 356 | 2.42% | 3,428 | 23.28% | 14,728 |
| Chittenden | 59,611 | 71.44% | 22,237 | 26.65% | 1,592 | 1.91% | 37,374 | 44.79% | 83,440 |
| Essex | 1,733 | 55.89% | 1,284 | 41.41% | 84 | 2.70% | 449 | 14.48% | 3,101 |
| Franklin | 13,179 | 61.41% | 7,853 | 36.59% | 428 | 2.00% | 5,326 | 24.82% | 21,460 |
| Grand Isle | 2,694 | 63.11% | 1,490 | 34.90% | 85 | 1.99% | 1,204 | 28.21% | 4,269 |
| Lamoille | 8,914 | 70.37% | 3,515 | 27.75% | 239 | 1.88% | 5,399 | 42.62% | 12,668 |
| Orange | 9,799 | 64.56% | 5,047 | 33.25% | 333 | 2.19% | 4,752 | 31.31% | 15,179 |
| Orleans | 7,998 | 62.63% | 4,482 | 35.10% | 291 | 2.27% | 3,516 | 27.53% | 12,771 |
| Rutland | 19,355 | 61.22% | 11,584 | 36.64% | 678 | 2.14% | 7,771 | 24.58% | 31,617 |
| Washington | 22,324 | 69.33% | 9,129 | 28.35% | 747 | 2.32% | 13,195 | 40.98% | 32,200 |
| Windham | 17,585 | 73.02% | 5,997 | 24.90% | 499 | 2.08% | 11,588 | 48.12% | 24,081 |
| Windsor | 21,444 | 68.81% | 9,084 | 29.15% | 637 | 2.04% | 12,360 | 39.66% | 31,165 |
| Totals | 219,262 | 67.46% | 98,974 | 30.45% | 6,810 | 2.10% | 120,288 | 37.01% | 325,046 |
| Democratic Hold Gain from Republican | Republican Hold |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
[edit]By congressional district
[edit]Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, called the at-large district because it covers the entire state, is thus equivalent to the statewide election results.
| District | McCain | Obama | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| At-large | 30.45% | 67.46% | Peter Welch |
Electors
[edit]Technically the voters of Vermont, as they do in every state, cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Vermont is allocated three electors because it has 1 congressional district and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 3 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 3 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[20] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were elected at large as members of the Electoral College from the state. All three were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[21]
- Claire Ayer
- Euan Bear
- Kevin Christie
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
- ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on June 5, 2008.
- ^ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
- ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
- ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "Election 2008 Polls". Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections.
- ^ "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on March 24, 2009.
- ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ a b "CHAPTER 13: Toward the 21st Century". The New York Times. Archived from the original on November 3, 2004. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Our Campaigns - VT US President Race - Nov 04, 2008". ourcampaigns.com. 2009. Retrieved August 25, 2015.
- ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
- ^ "Elections | Home | Vermont Secretary of State". vermont-elections.org. Archived from the original on February 10, 2014. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
