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2014 Arizona gubernatorial election

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2014 Arizona gubernatorial election
← 2010 November 4, 2014 2018 →
Turnout47.52% Decrease8.13pp [1]
 
Nominee Doug Ducey Fred DuVal
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 805,062 626,921
Percentage 53.44% 41.62%
Ducey:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%
DuVal:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%
Governor before election

Jan Brewer
Republican

Elected Governor

Doug Ducey
Republican

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The 2014 Arizona gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor of Arizona, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican governor Jan Brewer was term-limited and could not run for re-election to a second consecutive full term in office. After a bitter six-candidate primary, Republicans nominated Arizona State Treasurer Doug Ducey; Democrat Fred DuVal, the former chairman of the Arizona Board of Regents, won his party's nomination unopposed. Ducey won the election with 53% of the vote. This election marked the first time since 1994 that no female gubernatorial candidate was on the ballot and that a man was elected governor of Arizona. This was the first open seat gubernatorial election in the state since 2002.

Background

[edit]
Candidates for governor speaking at a forum hosted by the Arizona Chamber of Commerce and Industry. From left to right: Al Melvin, Scott Smith, Christine Jones, Fred DuVal, Frank Riggs, Doug Ducey and Ken Bennett.

Democratic governor Janet Napolitano resigned on January 21, 2009, to be sworn in as Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Since Arizona does not have a lieutenant governor, Secretary of State Jan Brewer was first in the state's gubernatorial line of succession and was sworn in as governor on the same day. She was elected to a full term in 2010, defeating Democrat Terry Goddard, the Arizona Attorney General, by 54% to 42%.

Brewer was term-limited in 2014, despite only serving one full term. This is because Arizona state law limits office holders to two consecutive terms regardless of whether they serve full or partial terms. In November 2012, Brewer declared she was looking into what she called "ambiguity" in Arizona's term-limit law to seek a third term.[2] In February 2014, Brewer reiterated that she was considering running for re-election,[3] but on March 12, 2014, she announced that she would not attempt to seek another term in office, which would have required what The Arizona Republic called a "long-shot court challenge".[4]

Republican primary

[edit]

The Republican primary campaign was widely characterised as being "bitter" and "nasty"[5][6][7][8] and the $16.2 million spent by the six Republican candidates means that the 2014 election has already broken the record for most expensive gubernatorial race in state history, exceeding the 2002 election in which $9.2 million was spent during the primary and general election campaigns combined.[9]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Doug Ducey

Individuals

Organizations

  • Arizona Free Enterprise Club[40]
  • Arizona Right to Life[41]
Frank Riggs

Individuals

Organizations

  • Arizonans Against Common Core[44]
Scott Smith

Individuals

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ken
Bennett 		Doug
Ducey 		Christine
Jones 		Al
Melvin 		John
Molina 		Frank
Riggs 		Scott
Smith 		Andrew
Thomas 		Undecided
Magellan Strategies[46] August 17–21, 2014 1,281 ± 2.74% 12% 32% 18% — — 2% 21% 8% 7%
Harper Polling[47] August 19–20, 2014 812 ± 3.44% 14% 32% 16% — — 2% 19% 7% 10%
Remington[48] August 17–19, 2014 502 ± 4.37% 10% 33% 18% — — 1% 22% 11% 5%
Magellan Strategies[49] August 15–18, 2014 1,322 ± ? 12% 31% 17% — — 3% 22% 8% 7%
Magellan Strategies[50] August 12–15, 2014 1,300 ± ? 10% 31% 16% — — 3% 23% 7% 10%
Magellan Strategies[51] August 5–7, 2014 1,289 ± 2.73% 11% 29% 13% — — 4% 22% 9% 12%
Magellan Strategies[52] July 28–31, 2014 1,644 ± ? 12% 23% 13% — — 5% 21% 10% 16%
Undisclosed[53] Late July 2014 ? ± ? 10% 23% 20% — — 2% 15% 9% 21%
Harper Polling[54] July 16–17, 2014 885 ± 3.29% 12% 23% 21% — — 1% 13% 7% 22%
Behavior Research Center[55] July 10–17, 2014 459 ± 4.7% 10% 13% 17% — — 2% 8% 0% 50%
Gravis Marketing[56] July 14, 2014 691 ± 4% 7% 28% 19% — — 1% 14% 8% 24%
Highground[57] July 10–12, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 3.5% 17.3% 15.3% — — 1.5% 9.8% 3% 49.8%
Magellan Strategies[58] July 9–10, 2014 593 ± 4.02% 11% 26% 22% — — 2% 14% 6% 19%
Harper Polling[59] June 25–26, 2014 791 ± 3.48% 12% 33% 15% — — 2% 14% 3% 22%
McLaughlin & Associates[60] June 10, 2014 400 ± 3.48% 8% 22.8% 6.2% — — — 6.5% — 56.5%
Magellan Strategies[61] June 3–4, 2014 630 ± 3.9% 12% 28% 12% 2% — 2% 16% 5% 23%
Magellan Strategies[62] May 13–14, 2014 760 ± 3.6% 12.7% 27.3% 11.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.7% 11.5% 5.6% 28.8%
Undisclosed[63] April 29, 2014 1,367 ± 3.5% 7% 4% 10% — — — 9% 5% 65%
Magellan Strategies[64] April 8–9, 2014 ? ± ? 15% 9% 14% — — 1% 6% 6% 45%
Public Policy Polling[65] Feb. 28–Mar. 2, 2014 403 ± 4.9% 20% 6% 16% 1% 1% 1% 12% 9% 34%
Behavior Research Center[66] January 16–26, 2014 701 ± 3.8% 6% 2% 8% 1% — — 7% 7% 69%
Susquehanna[67] Nov. 27–Dec. 4 2013 245 ± ? 20% 8% 4% 2% — — 6% 4% 56%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Ducey – 50–60%
  Ducey – 40–50%
  Ducey – 30–40%
  Jones – 30–40%
Republican primary results[68]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Doug Ducey 200,607 37.05
Republican Scott Smith 119,107 22.00
Republican Christine Jones 89,922 16.61
Republican Ken Bennett 62,010 11.45
Republican Andrew Thomas 43,822 8.09
Republican Frank Riggs 24,168 4.46
Republican Write-in 1,804 0.03
Total votes 541,440 100

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Fred DuVal

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
Cavanaugh 		Fred
DuVal 		Undecided
Behavior Research Center[66] January 16–26, 2014 ? ± ? 12% 18% 72%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Chad
Campbell 		Fred
DuVal 		Undecided
Myers Research[88] May 22–June 13, 2012 ? ± ? 31% 18% 51%

Results

[edit]
Democratic primary results[68]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Fred DuVal 271,276 97
Democratic Write-in 8,578 3
Total votes 279,854 100

Third parties

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Libertarian primary results[68]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Barry Hess 3,979 75
Libertarian Write-in 1,345 25
Total votes 5,324 100
Americans Elect primary results[68]
Party Candidate Votes %
Americans Elect John Lewis Mealer 722 95
Americans Elect Write-in 38 5
Total votes 760 100

General election

[edit]

Debates

[edit]
2014 Arizona gubernatorial election debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Democratic Libertarian Americans Elect
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Not invited   I  Invited  W  Withdrawn
Doug Ducey Fred DuVal Barry Hess John Lewis Mealer
1 Sep. 10, 2014 Chandler Center for the Arts
KPNX 		Brahm Resnik C-SPAN P P N N
2 Sep. 28, 2014 Arizona PBS Ted Simons PBS P P P P

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[92] Lean R November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[93] Likely R November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[94] Lean R November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[95] Lean R November 3, 2014

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Doug
Ducey (R) 		Fred
DuVal (D) 		Other Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[96] October 16–23, 2014 2,621 ± 4% 50% 40% 1% 9%
The Polling Company[97] October 20–22, 2014 601 ± 4% 42% 35% 7%[other 1] 15%
Rasmussen Reports[98] October 14–16, 2014 1,056 ± 3% 47% 42% 3% 7%
Tarrance Group[99] October 13–16, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 43% 36% 5%[other 1] 16%
McLaughlin & Associates[100] October 12–14, 2014 500 ± 4.5% 37% 36% 5%[other 2] 22%
Adrian Gray Consulting[101] October 8–9, 2014 600 ± 4% 43% 35% 8%[other 3] 14%
Moore Information[102] October 7–8, 2014 400 ± ≈4.9% 36% 39% 4%[other 4] 21%
The Polling Company[103] October 6–8, 2014 600 ± 4% 46% 37% 5%[other 1] 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[104] September 20–October 1, 2014 2,808 ± 3% 50% 39% 2% 9%
Keating Research[105] September 17–19, 2014 600 ± 4% 41% 39% 7%[other 1] 13%
Tarrance Group[106] September 15–17, 2014 505 ± 4.5% 44% 38% 7%[other 5] 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[107] August 18–September 2, 2014 3,289 ± 3% 39% 38% 15% 9%
Rasmussen Reports[98] August 27–28, 2014 850 ± 3% 40% 40% — 20%
Public Policy Polling[108] August 24–25, 2014 588 ± 4% 35% 35% 12%[other 1] 18%
Public Policy Polling[65] February 28–March 2, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 35% 36% — 29%
Undisclosed[63] February 2014 500 ± ? 32% 32% 6%[other 1] 30%
Behavior Research Center[66] January 16–26, 2014 701 ± 3.8% 21% 23% — 56%
Susquehanna[67] November 27–December 4, 2013 600 ± 4% 36% 33% — 31%
  1. ^ a b c d e f Barry Hess (L)
  2. ^ Barry Hess (L) 3%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 3%
  3. ^ Barry Hess (L) 5%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 3%
  4. ^ Barry Hess (L) 3%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 1%
  5. ^ Barry Hess (L) 6%, John Lewis Mealer (AE) 1%
Hypothetical polling

With Bennett

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ken
Bennett (R) 		Fred
DuVal (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[65] February 28–March 2, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 37% 33% — 30%
Behavior Research Center[66] January 16–26, 2014 701 ± 3.8% 26% 22% — 52%
Susquehanna[67] November 27–December 4, 2013 600 ± 4% 38% 33% — 28%

With Jones

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Christine
Jones (R) 		Fred
DuVal (D) 		Other Undecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGov[109] July 5–24, 2014 3,778 ± ? 45% 34% 13% 7%
Public Policy Polling[65] February 28–March 2, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 33% 37% — 30%

With Melvin

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Al
Melvin (R) 		Fred
DuVal (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[65] February 28–March 2, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 32% 37% — 31%

With Molina

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		John
Molina (R) 		Fred
DuVal (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[65] February 28–March 2, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 32% 35% — 33%

With Riggs

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Frank
Riggs (R) 		Fred
DuVal (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[65] February 28–March 2, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 32% 36% — 31%

With Smith

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Scott
Smith (R) 		Fred
DuVal (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[65] February 28–March 2, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 39% 33% — 28%
Behavior Research Center[66] January 16–26, 2014 701 ± 3.8% 20% 23% — 57%

With Thomas

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Andrew
Thomas (R) 		Fred
DuVal (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[65] February 28–March 2, 2014 870 ± 3.3% 35% 40% — 25%

Results

[edit]
Arizona gubernatorial election, 2014[110]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Doug Ducey 805,062 53.4 −0.9
Democratic Fred DuVal 626,921 41.6 −0.8
Libertarian Barry Hess 57,337 3.8 +1.6
Americans Elect John Lewis Mealer 15,432 1.0 N/A
None J. Johnson (write-in) 1,520 0.1 N/A
Independent Brian Bailey (write-in) 50 nil N/A
Republican Alice Novoa (write-in) 43 nil N/A
Independent Cary Dolego (write-in) 29 nil N/A
None Curtis Woolsey (write-in) 15 nil N/A
Independent Diane-Elizabeth R.R. Kennedy (write-in) 7 nil N/A
Total votes 1,506,416 100 N/A
Republican hold

By county

[edit]
By county
County[111] Doug Ducey
Republican 		Fred DuVal
Democratic 		Barry Hess
Libertarian 		John L. Mealer
Americans Elect 		Write-in Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # % # % # %
Apache 5,871 28.52 13,562 65.88 684 3.32 458 2.22 9 0.04 -7,691 -37.36 20,584
Cochise 21,662 59.41 12,709 34.85 1,611 4.41 457 1.25 22 0.06 8,953 24.56 36,461
Coconino 14,528 39.64 20,212 55.15 1,650 4.50 496 1.35 53 0.01 -5,684 -15.51 36,645
Gila 9,610 60.67 5,253 33.16 769 5.34 202 1.27 5 0.03 4,357 27.51 15,839
Graham 4,985 68.60 1,919 26.41 269 3.70 90 1.23 3 0.04 3,066 42.19 7,266
Greenlee 995 51.82 792 41.25 104 5.41 29 1.51 1 0.05 203 10.57 1,920
La Paz 2,388 68.54 846 24.28 195 5.59 53 1.52 2 0.05 1,542 44.26 3,484
Maricopa 469,200 54.69 346,879 40.43 32,466 3.78 8,167 0.95 1,066 0.01 122,321 14.26 857,778
Mohave 33,150 71.02 10,662 22.84 2,242 4.80 604 1.29 17 0.03 22,488 48.18 46,675
Navajo 13,569 49.61 12,128 44.34 1080 3.94 553 2.02 19 0.06 1,441 5.27 27,349
Pima 122,966 45.43 136,302 50.35 8,899 3.28 2,312 0.85 191 0.07 -13,336 -4.92 270,670
Pinal 41,313 57.80 26,131 36.56 2,966 4.14 832 1.16 231 0.32 15,182 21.24 71,473
Santa Cruz 3,175 34.05 5,819 62.40 239 2.56 90 0.96 1 0.01 -2,644 -28.35 9,324
Yavapai 46,806 63.11 23,210 31.29 3,287 4.43 820 1.10 31 0.04 23,596 31.82 74,154
Yuma 14,844 56.01 10,497 39.61 876 3.30 269 1.01 13 0.04 4,347 16.40 26,499
Totals 805,062 53.44 626,921 41.61 57,337 3.80 15,432 1.02 1,664 0.11 178,141 11.83 1,506,416

By congressional district

[edit]

Ducey won 6 of 9 congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.[112]

District DuVal Ducey Representative
1st 46.0% 48.87% Ann Kirkpatrick
2nd 46.95% 48.73% Martha McSally
3rd 56.31% 38.77% Raúl Grijalva
4th 27.43% 66.84% Paul Gosar
5th 32.64% 62.83% Matt Salmon
6th 37.56% 58.27% David Schweikert
7th 65.18% 29.29% Ruben Gallego
8th 33.64% 61.2% Trent Franks
9th 49.06% 46.3% Kyrsten Sinema

References

[edit]
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  53. ^ Undisclosed
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  63. ^ a b Undisclosed
  64. ^ Magellan Strategies
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  66. ^ a b c d e Behavior Research Center
  67. ^ a b c Susquehanna
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Official campaign websites

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