2018 United States Senate election in Minnesota
(Redirected from United States Senate election in Minnesota, 2018)
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U.S. Senator from Minnesota
Presidential campaign
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The 2018 United States Senate election in Minnesota took place on November 6, 2018, to elect a United States Senator from Minnesota. Incumbent Democratic–Farmer–Labor U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar was reelected in a landslide, defeating Republican state House of Representatives member Jim Newberger. This election was held alongside a special election for Minnesota's other Senate seat, which was held by Al Franken until he resigned in January 2018. U.S. House elections, a gubernatorial election, State House elections, and other elections were also held.
The candidate filing deadline was June 5, 2018, and the primary election was held on August 14, 2018.[1] This is the last time that the winner of the United States Senate election in Minnesota won a majority of Minnesota's counties.
Democratic-Farmer-Labor primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominated
[edit]- Amy Klobuchar, incumbent U.S. Senator[2]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Amy Klobuchar
Organizations
- Communications Workers of America[4]
- EMILY's List[5]
- End Citizens United[6]
- Feminist Majority Political Action Committee [7]
- League of Conservation Voters[8]
- National Committee to Preserve Social Security and Medicare[9]
- Natural Resources Defense Council Action Fund[10]
- Population Connection[11]
- United Automobile Workers[12]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Amy Klobuchar (incumbent) | 557,306 | 95.70% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Steve Carlson | 9,934 | 1.71% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Stephen Emery | 7,047 | 1.21% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | David Groves | 4,511 | 0.77% | |
| Democratic (DFL) | Leonard Richards | 3,552 | 0.61% | |
| Total votes | 582,350 | 100% | ||
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominated
[edit]- Jim Newberger, state representative[14] (Minnesota GOP convention endorsed)[15]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Merrill Anderson,[3] Past Candidate (Mayor of Minneapolis), Past Candidate (Governor of Minnesota)
- Rae Hart Anderson[3]
- Rocky De La Fuente, 2016 Reform Party Presidential Nominee and perennial candidate[3]
Declined
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Jim Newberger
State legislators
- Representative Tony Albright, 55B, Vice Chair of the Health and Human Services Finance Committee
- Senator Bruce Anderson, SD 29
- Representative Paul Anderson, 12B, Chair of the Agriculture Policy Committee
- Representative Jeff Backer, 12A, Vice Chair of the Agriculture Policy Committee
- Representative Cal Bahr, 31B.
- Representative Peggy Bennett, 27A, Vice Chair of the Education Finance Committee
- Senator Dave Brown, SD15, retired
- Representative Drew Christensen, 56A
- Representative Steve Drazkowski, 21B, Chair of the Property Tax Committee
- Representative Sondra Erickson, 15A, Chair of the Education Innovation Policy Committee
- Representative Dan Fabian, 1A, Chair of the Environment and Natural Resources Committee
- Representative Patrick Garofalo, 58B, Chair of the Growth and Energy Affordibility Committee
- Representative Steve Green, 2B
- Representative Glenn Gruenhagen, 18B
- Representative Bob Gunther, 23A, Chair of the Legacy Committee
- Senator Dan Hall, SD 56, Chair of the Local Government Finance Committee
- Representative Josh Heintzeman, 10A, Vice Chair of the Environment and Natural Resources Committee
- Representative Jerry Hertaus, 33A, Vice Chair of the Property Tax Committee
- Representative Jeff Howe, 13A
- Senator Bill Ingebrigtsen, SD 8, Chair of the Environment and Natural Resources Finance Committee
- Representative Tony Jurgens, 54B.
- Representative Ron Kresha, 9B, Majority Whip
- Representative Sandy Layman, 5B
- Representative Kathy Lohmer, 39B
- Representative Bob Loonan, 55A
- Representative Eric Lucero, 30B
- Representative Dale Lueck, 10B, Vice Chair of the Mining, Forestry and Tourism SubCommittee
- Senator Andrew Mathews, SD15, Vice Chair, Energy and Utilities Committee.
- Representative Anne Neu, 32B
- Representative Marion O'Neill, 29B, Chair of Employee Relations Sub Committee
- Representative Joyce Peppin, 34A, Majority Leader
- Representative Roz Peterson, 56B
- Representative John Poston, 9A.
- Representative Cindy Pugh, 33B, Vice Chair of the Government Operations and Elections Committee
- Representative Duane Quam, 25A
- Senator Julie Rosen, SD23, Finance Committee Chair
- Representative Dennis Smith, 34B, Vice Chair of the Civil Law and Data Practices Committee
- Representative Mark Uglem, 36A, Vice Chair of the Capital Investment Committee
- Representative Nick Zerwas, 30A
Individuals
Organizations
- Chinese American Alliance Action[19]
Newspapers
Results
[edit]
Results by county
Map legend
- Newberger—80–90%
- Newberger—70–80%
- Newberger—60–70%
- Newberger—50–60%
Results by congressional district
Map legend
- Newberger—70–80%
- Newberger—60–70%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jim Newberger | 201,531 | 69.50% | |
| Republican | Merrill Anderson | 45,492 | 15.69% | |
| Republican | Rae Hart Anderson | 25,883 | 8.93% | |
| Republican | Roque "Rocky" de la Fuente | 17,051 | 5.88% | |
| Total votes | 289,957 | 100% | ||
Minor parties and independents
[edit]Candidates
[edit]- Paula M. Overby (Green Party)[21]
- Dennis Schuller (Legal Marijuana Now Party)[22]
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[23] | Safe D | October 26, 2018 |
| Inside Elections[24] | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[25] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[26] | Likely D | July 9, 2018 |
| CNN[27] | Safe D | July 12, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[28] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
Debates
[edit]On August 24, MPR News hosted a debate between Amy Klobuchar and Jim Newberger at the Minnesota State Fair.[29]
Fundraising
[edit]| Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
| Amy Klobuchar (DFL) | $10,139,499 | $7,700,359 | $5,086,325 |
| Jim Newberger (R) | $210,846 | $191,815 | $19,030 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[30] | |||
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Amy Klobuchar (DFL) |
Jim Newberger (R) |
Paula Overby (G) |
Dennis Schuller (LMN) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research[31] | November 2–4, 2018 | 953 | – | 55% | 40% | 2% | 3% | – | – |
| Research Co.[32] | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 53% | 33% | – | – | 2% | 12% |
| SurveyUSA[33] | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 5.3% | 57% | 34% | – | – | 1% | 7% |
| St. Cloud State University[34] | October 15–30, 2018 | 420 | – | 54% | 28% | – | – | – | |
| Mason-Dixon[35] | October 15–17, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 56% | 33% | 2% | 2% | – | 8% |
| Change Research[36] | October 12–13, 2018 | 1,413 | – | 50% | 41% | 2% | 5% | – | 2% |
| Marist College[37] | September 30 – October 4, 2018 | 637 LV | ± 4.9% | 60% | 32% | 4% | – | <1% | 4% |
| 63% | 33% | – | – | <1% | 4% | ||||
| 860 RV | ± 4.2% | 59% | 32% | 5% | – | <1% | 5% | ||
| 62% | 33% | – | – | <1% | 5% | ||||
| Mason-Dixon[38] | September 10–12, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 60% | 30% | 1% | 3% | – | 6% |
| SurveyUSA[39] | September 6–8, 2018 | 574 | ± 4.9% | 53% | 38% | – | – | 2% | 8% |
| Suffolk University[40] | August 17–20, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 54% | 34% | 1% | 1% | – | 11% |
| Emerson College[41] | August 8–11, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.6% | 50% | 26% | – | – | – | 24% |
| BK Strategies[42] | June 24–25, 2018 | 1,574 | ± 2.5% | 57% | 37% | – | – | – | 6% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BK Strategies (R)[43] | June 24–25, 2018 | 1,574 | ± 2.5% | 49% | 42% | 9% |
Results
[edit]Klobuchar won the election by a margin of 24.10%. She carried a clear majority of the state's 87 counties, won every congressional district, and had the biggest statewide margin of any statewide candidate in Minnesota in 2018. Klobuchar ran up huge margins in the state's population centers and trounced Newberger in the counties encompassing the Minneapolis-St. Paul area. As in her 2012 victory, she also won many rural counties. Klobuchar was sworn in for a third term on January 3, 2019.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic (DFL) | Amy Klobuchar (incumbent) | 1,566,174 | 60.31% | −4.92% | |
| Republican | Jim Newberger | 940,437 | 36.21% | +5.68% | |
| Legal Marijuana Now | Dennis Schuller | 66,236 | 2.55% | N/A | |
| Green | Paula Overby | 23,101 | 0.89% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 931 | 0.04% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 2,596,879 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic (DFL) hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
[edit]- Morrison (largest city: Little Falls)
- Todd (largest city: Long Prairie)
- Jackson (largest city: Jackson)
- Faribault (largest city: Blue Earth)
- Nobles (largest city: Worthington)
- Martin (largest city: Fairmont)
- Cottonwood (largest city: Windom)
- Dodge (largest city: Kasson)
- Murray (largest city: Slayton)
- Lincoln (largest city: Tyler)
- Redwood (largest city: Redwood Falls)
- Brown (largest city: New Ulm)
- McLeod (largest city: Hutchinson)
- Meeker (largest city: Litchfield)
- Wright (largest city: Otsego)
- Sibley (largest city: Gaylord)
- Benton (largest city: Sauk Rapids)
- Sherburne (largest city: Elk River)
- Isanti (largest city: Cambridge)
- Chisago (largest city: North Branch)
- Mille Lacs (largest city: Princeton)
- Kanabec (largest city: Mora)
- Marshall (largest city: Warren)
- Lake of the Woods (largest city: Baudette)
- Roseau (largest city: Roseau)
- Clearwater (largest city: Bagley)
- Polk (largest city: East Grand Forks)
- Becker (largest city: Detroit Lakes)
- Douglas (largest city: Alexandria)
- Otter Tail (largest city: Fergus Falls)
- Cass (largest city: Lake Shore)
- Crow Wing (largest city: Brainerd)
- Hubbard (largest city: Park Rapids)
- Wadena (largest city: Wadena)
By congressional district
[edit]Klobuchar won all 8 congressional districts, including three that elected Republicans.[45]
| District | Klobuchar | Newberger | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 53.93% | 42.34% | Tim Walz (115th Congress) |
| Jim Hagedorn (116th Congress) | |||
| 2nd | 58.96% | 37.65% | Jason Lewis (115th Congress) |
| Angie Craig (116th Congress) | |||
| 3rd | 62.54% | 34.80% | Erik Paulsen (115th Congress) |
| Dean Phillips (116th Congress) | |||
| 4th | 71.09% | 25.25% | Betty McCollum |
| 5th | 81.21% | 14.88% | Keith Ellison (115th Congress) |
| Ilhan Omar (116th Congress) | |||
| 6th | 48.28% | 48.18% | Tom Emmer |
| 7th | 48.44% | 48.32% | Collin Peterson |
| 8th | 53.69% | 42.83% | Rick Nolan (115th Congress) |
| Pete Stauber (116th Congress) |
Voter demographics
[edit]| Demographic subgroup | Klobuchar | Newberger | No Answer |
% of Voters |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gender | ||||
| Men | 54 | 45 | 1 | 46 |
| Women | 67 | 32 | 1 | 54 |
| Age | ||||
| 18–24 years old | 79 | 19 | 2 | 6 |
| 25–29 years old | 60 | 39 | 1 | 5 |
| 30–39 years old | 63 | 35 | 2 | 12 |
| 40–49 years old | 57 | 42 | 1 | 13 |
| 50–64 years old | 61 | 38 | 1 | 29 |
| 65 and older | 60 | 39 | 1 | 35 |
| Race | ||||
| White | 59 | 40 | 1 | 89 |
| Black | 86 | 12 | 2 | 5 |
| Latino | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
| Asian | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Other | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Race by gender | ||||
| White men | 52 | 47 | 1 | 40 |
| White women | 65 | 34 | 1 | 49 |
| Black men | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
| Black women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
| Latino men | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Latino women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
| Others | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4 |
| Education | ||||
| High school or less | 59 | 40 | 1 | 17 |
| Some college education | 55 | 43 | 2 | 23 |
| Associate degree | 54 | 44 | 2 | 17 |
| Bachelor's degree | 66 | 34 | N/A | 26 |
| Advanced degree | 75 | 25 | N/A | 16 |
| Education and race | ||||
| White college graduates | 68 | 31 | 1 | 38 |
| White no college degree | 53 | 46 | 1 | 51 |
| Non-white college graduates | 79 | 20 | 1 | 4 |
| Non-white no college degree | 82 | 17 | 1 | 7 |
| Whites by education and gender | ||||
| White women with college degrees | 74 | 25 | 1 | 21 |
| White women without college degrees | 59 | 40 | 1 | 28 |
| White men with college degrees | 61 | 39 | N/A | 17 |
| White men without college degrees | 46 | 53 | 1 | 23 |
| Non-whites | 80 | 18 | 2 | 11 |
| Income | ||||
| Under $30,000 | 67 | 28 | 5 | 14 |
| $30,000–49,999 | 63 | 35 | 2 | 20 |
| $50,000–99,999 | 55 | 44 | 1 | 36 |
| $100,000–199,999 | 64 | 36 | N/A | 23 |
| Over $200,000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7 |
| Party ID | ||||
| Democrats | 98 | 2 | N/A | 39 |
| Republicans | 18 | 81 | 1 | 32 |
| Independents | 62 | 36 | 2 | 29 |
| Party by gender | ||||
| Democratic men | 96 | 4 | N/A | 14 |
| Democratic women | 99 | 1 | N/A | 25 |
| Republican men | 16 | 84 | N/A | 15 |
| Republican women | 20 | 78 | 2 | 17 |
| Independent men | 56 | 42 | 2 | 16 |
| Independent women | 69 | 29 | 2 | 13 |
| Ideology | ||||
| Liberals | 96 | 3 | 1 | 27 |
| Moderates | 76 | 23 | 1 | 39 |
| Conservatives | 17 | 82 | 1 | 33 |
| Marital status | ||||
| Married | 55 | 44 | 1 | 67 |
| Unmarried | 69 | 28 | 3 | 33 |
| Gender by marital status | ||||
| Married men | 51 | 47 | 2 | 31 |
| Married women | 58 | 42 | N/A | 36 |
| Unmarried men | 59 | 38 | 3 | 15 |
| Unmarried women | 79 | 19 | 2 | 18 |
| First-time midterm election voter | ||||
| Yes | 59 | 40 | 1 | 13 |
| No | 64 | 35 | 1 | 87 |
| Most important issue facing the country | ||||
| Health care | 78 | 20 | 2 | 50 |
| Immigration | 29 | 70 | 1 | 22 |
| Economy | 37 | 62 | 1 | 18 |
| Gun policy | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7 |
| Area type | ||||
| Urban | 73 | 26 | 1 | 40 |
| Suburban | 58 | 41 | 1 | 32 |
| Rural | 49 | 49 | 2 | 28 |
| Source: CNN[46] | ||||
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "United States Senate election in Minnesota, 2018 - Ballotpedia". Retrieved March 3, 2017.
- ^ Sherry, Allison (December 25, 2016). "Klobuchar will run again for Senate, rules herself out for governor's race". Star Tribune. Retrieved December 26, 2016.
- ^ a b c d e f g "Candidate Filings". candidates.sos.state.mn.us. Retrieved June 8, 2018.
- ^ "Our Candidates - CWA Political". CWA Political. Archived from the original on April 3, 2018. Retrieved October 9, 2018.
- ^ "EMILY's List Endorses Nine Democratic Women Senators for Re-Election in 2018". EMILY's List. February 10, 2017. Retrieved February 13, 2017.
- ^ Tiffany Muller (July 6, 2017). "End Citizens United Endorses Senator Amy Klobuchar for Re-election". End Citizens United.
- ^ "Amy Klobuchar – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org.
- ^ "Endorsements - League of Conservation Voters".
- ^ NCPSSM. "Candidates We Endorse and Support". Retrieved December 18, 2018.
- ^ "NRDC Action Fund announces first wave of 2018 Senate endorsements". www.nrdcactionfund.org. January 5, 2018.
- ^ "Population Connection Action Fund Endorsements". Population Connection. Archived from the original on April 5, 2018. Retrieved October 27, 2018.
- ^ "Minnesota – Official UAW Endorsements". uawendorsements.org. United Automobile Workers.
- ^ a b "Minnesota 2018 Primary Election Results". Minnesota Secretary of State. Archived from the original on February 12, 2019. Retrieved May 28, 2019.
- ^ Stassen-Berger, Rachel E. (August 5, 2017). "Challenger emerges to run against U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar — GOP state Rep. Jim Newberger". St. Paul Pioneer Press. Retrieved August 5, 2017.
- ^ "GOP endorses Housley, Newberger for U.S. Senate". June 2, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
- ^ "Pawlenty won't run for Senate in Minnesota". Politico. January 16, 2018. Retrieved August 29, 2018.
- ^ [1][dead link]
- ^ Lindell, Mike (October 31, 2018). "My friend @NewbergerJim will be one of the best US Senators ever!pic.twitter.com/gZCkRCQ1nw". Retrieved December 18, 2018.
- ^ "CAA Endorsing James Newberger For US Senate". Jim Newberger for US Senate.
- ^ "Our View / Endorsement: Newberger already focused on Klobuchar". Duluth News Tribune. July 24, 2018.
- ^ McMullen, Maureen (November 11, 2017). "Transgender candidate announces U.S. Senate campaign in Minn., seeking Green Party endorsement". Duluth News Tribune. Retrieved January 25, 2018.
- ^ Golden, Erin (June 16, 2018). "Legal pot advocates join Minnesota races for state, federal offices". Star Tribune. Retrieved June 17, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- ^ "2018 Senate Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- ^ "2018 Crystal Ball Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved December 7, 2017.
- ^ "2018 Senate Power Rankings". Fox News. Retrieved July 10, 2018.
- ^ "Key Races: Senate". Retrieved July 15, 2018.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2018". Retrieved August 14, 2018.
- ^ Pugmire, Tim (August 22, 2018). "Sen. Amy Klobuchar and state Rep. Jim Newberger debate at the State Fair". Retrieved August 29, 2018.
- ^ "Campaign finance data". Retrieved October 31, 2018.
- ^ Change Research
- ^ Research Co.
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ St. Cloud State University
- ^ Mason-Dixon
- ^ Change Research
- ^ Marist College
- ^ Mason-Dixon
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ Suffolk University Archived 2018-12-08 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Emerson College Archived 2018-08-15 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ BK Strategies Archived 2018-06-29 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ BK Strategies (R) Archived 2018-06-29 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ "Minnesota Secretary Of State - 2018 General Election Results". www.sos.state.mn.us. Archived from the original on April 10, 2020. Retrieved December 18, 2018.
- ^ "Daily Kos".
- ^ "Minnesota Senate election exit poll". CNN. Retrieved November 20, 2018.
External links
[edit]- Elections & Voting - Minnesota Secretary of State
- Candidates at Vote Smart
- Candidates at Ballotpedia
- Campaign finance at FEC
- Campaign finance at OpenSecrets
Official campaign websites
