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Opinion polling for the 2024 Irish general election

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Main article: 2024 Irish general election

Opinion polls

[edit]

On 1 November, Coimisiún na Meán announced the lifting of the reporting moratorium that had been in place since 1997, and which had prevented election coverage from 14:00 on the day prior to the election until the close of polls. However, the agency also advised broadcasters not to report on opinion polls or exit polls while voting is underway.[1][2]

Various organisations conduct regular opinion polls to gauge voting intentions. Results of such polls are displayed in this list.

The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous Irish general election, held on 8 February 2020, to the next election, which can be held no later than March 2025.

Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.
Last date
of polling 		Polling firm / Commissioner Sample
size 		SF FF FG GP Lab SD PBP–S Aon II O/I[n 1]
2 November 2024 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[3] 1,832 18 20 26 4 4 6 2 3 – [n 2] 16
23 October 2024 Red C/Business Post[4][5] 1,003 17 21 22 3 4 5 3 3 5 15
16 October 2024 Opinions/The Sunday Times[6] 1,005 16 19 24 4 5 5 3 2 – [n 2] 22
4 October 2024 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[7] 1,413 19 19 26 4 5 6 2 4 – [n 2] 16
19 September 2024 Opinions/The Sunday Times[8] 1,000 18 20 24 4 4 5 3 2 – [n 2] 20
17 September 2024 Ipsos B&A/Irish Times[9] 1,200 20 19 27 5 6 4 2 1 – [n 2] 16
10 September 2024 Red C/Business Post[10][11] 1,004 18 18 23 4 4 6 3 4 4 15
31 August 2024 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[12] 1,423 18 21 25 4 4 4 2 3 – [n 2] 19
3 August 2024 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[13] 1,388 19 20 24 4 4 5 2 4 – [n 2] 18
5 July 2024 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[14] 1,394 18 20 24 4 3 4 3 4 – [n 2] 20
26 June 2024 Red C/Business Post[15] 1,000 20 19 21 5 3 5 3 3 5 15
31 May 2024 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[16] 1,770 22 17 22 4 3 5 2 3 – [n 2] 23
22 May 2024 Red C/Business Post[17] 1,021 23 15 22 4 4 5 3 3 – [n 2] 21[n 3]
15 May 2024 Opinions/The Sunday Times[18] 1,100 27 16 19 5 3 6 3 3 – [n 2] 18
15 May 2024 Ipsos B&A/Irish Times[19] 1,500 23 20 23 4 5 3 2 1 – [n 2] 17
3 May 2024 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[20] 1,316 29 16 19 4 3 6 2 3 – [n 2] 19
25 April 2024 Red C/Business Post[21] 1,027 27 14 20 3 3 6 2 4 – [n 2] 21[n 3]
17 April 2024 Opinions/The Sunday Times[22] 1,100 27 16 20 6 5 4 3 3 – [n 2] 16
6 April 2024 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[23] 1,334 26 16 21 4 3 6 2 4 – [n 2] 17
23 March 2024 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[24][25] 1,304 27 17 22 4 4 6 2 4 – [n 2] 14
20 March 2024 Red C/Business Post[26] 1,027 25 16 19 4 3 6 3 5 – [n 2] 19
2 March 2024 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[27] 1,083 27 18 20 4 4 7 2 2 – [n 2] 17
21 February 2024 Red C/Business Post[28] 1,009 28 16 20 3 4 7 3 3 – [n 2] 16
6 February 2024 Ipsos B&A/Irish Times[29] 1,200 28 20 19 5 4 4 2 1 – [n 2] 17
2 February 2024 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[30] 1,394 29 17 19 3 4 5 3 3 – [n 2] 18
24 January 2024 Red C/Business Post[31] 1,003 25 17 20 4 4 6 3 3 – [n 2] 18
6 January 2024 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[32] 1,270 30 17 20 3 3 5 3 3 – [n 2] 17
2 December 2023 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[33] 1,306 28 19 21 3 4 5 4 3 – [n 2] 14
22 November 2023 Red C/Business Post[34] 1,021 29 16 20 4 4 6 3 2 – [n 2] 16
3 November 2023 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[35] 1,387 31 18 21 4 3 5 4 3 – [n 4] 11
25 October 2023 Red C/Business Post[36] 1,018 32 15 20 4 5 6 3 2 – [n 4] 12
29 September 2023 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[37] 1,196 35 17 19 4 3 5 2 3 – [n 4] 12
26 September 2023 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[38] 1,200 34 20 18 3 3 2 1 1 – [n 4] 18
12 September 2023 Red C/Business Post[39] 1,011 31 16 21 4 4 5 3 3 – [n 4] 12
12 September 2023 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[40] 910 33 21 20 6 4 3 2 1 – [n 4] 9
1 September 2023 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[41] 1,228 33 18 21 2 3 6 3 2 – [n 4] 10
5 August 2023 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[42] 1,272 34 18 19 5 4 5 3 2 – [n 4] 10
12 July 2023 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[43] 910 34 24 19 4 4 2 2 1 – [n 4] 10
1 July 2023 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[44] 1,076 31 19 19 3 2 6 4 3 – [n 4] 13
21 June 2023 Red C/Business Post[45][46] 1,011 29 16 22 4 5 5 3 2 – [n 4] 14
13 June 2023 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[47] 1,200 31 21 18 4 4 5 2 1 – [n 4] 14
2 June 2023 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[48] 1,136 32 19 20 3 3 6 2 3 – [n 4] 13
24 May 2023 Red C/Business Post[49] 1,011 34 15 20 4 4 6 3 1 – [n 4] 13
9 May 2023 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[50] 906 35 22 17 5 4 3 1 1 – [n 4] 12
6 May 2023 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[51] 1,175 31 19 20 3 4 5 4 2 – [n 4] 12
26 April 2023 Red C/Business Post[52] 1,016 31 16 22 4 4 5 2 2 – [n 4] 14
4 April 2023 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[53] 909 37 21 15 6 4 4 2 2 – [n 4] 8
1 April 2023 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[54] 1,102 31 16 22 4 3 7 3 3 – [n 4] 10
22 March 2023 Red C/Business Post[55] 1,005 31 15 22 3 4 6 3 2 – [n 4] 14
14 March 2023 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[56][57] 943 32 20 23 5 5 4 2 – [n 2] – [n 4] 9
3 March 2023 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[58] 1,162 29 19 21 4 3 9 2 3 – [n 4] 10
22 February 2023 Red C/Business Post[59] 998 31 17 21 4 4 4 3 2 – [n 4] 14
21 February 2023 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[60] 1,200 35 18 22 4 4 2 – [n 2] – [n 2] – [n 4] 16
14 February 2023 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[61] 921 31 24 23 5 5 2 1 – [n 2] – [n 4] 9
3 February 2023 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[62] 1,212 31 18 22 4 4 4 3 4 – [n 4] 10
25 January 2023 Red C/Business Post[63] 1,004 33 15 21 4 4 6 3 2 – [n 4] 12
17 January 2023 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[64] 936 34 25 19 5 4 2 2 1 – [n 4] 8
6 January 2023 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[65] 1,104 32 16 25 4 3 3 4 3 – [n 4] 10
6 December 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[66] 923 34 21 23 5 3 1 1 – [n 2] – [n 4] 12
2 December 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[67] 1,352 34 17 23 3 3 5 3 4 – [n 4] 9
23 November 2022 Red C/Business Post[68] >1,000 31 15 24 5 4 4 3 2 – [n 4] 11
8 November 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[69] 923 34 23 21 4 5 2 1 1 – [n 4] 9
4 November 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[70] 1,002 34 17 21 3 3 4 5 4 – [n 4] 10
25 October 2022 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[71] 1,200 35 21 22 4 3 3 2 1 – [n 4] 10
15 October 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[72] 931 34 22 21 4 6 2 2 0 – [n 4] 9
1 October 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[73] 1,254 37 17 21 4 3 3 4 3 – [n 4] 8
6 September 2022 Red C/Business Post[74] 1,004 35 17 18 5 4 4 3 2 – [n 4] 12
6 September 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[75] 905 35 24 20 5 4 3 2 0 – [n 4] 8
3 September 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[76][77] 1,127 36 16 21 2 3 4 5 3 – [n 4] 11
6 August 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[78][79] 1,180 36 17 22 4 3 4 4 3 – [n 4] 9
12 July 2022 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[80][81] 1,200 36 20 18 3 4 2 3 1 – [n 4] 14
1 July 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[82] 1,133 36 15 22 4 4 3 3 3 – [n 4] 10
22 June 2022 Red C/Business Post[83] 1,004 36 14 19 4 3 4 4 3 – [n 4] 12
7 June 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[84] ? 37 22 23 4 5 0 1 1 – [n 4] 8
4 June 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[85] 1,211 35 17 20 3 4 5 3 3 – [n 4] 8
25 May 2022 Red C/Business Post[86] 1,000+ 36 15 20 5 3 4 3 2 – [n 4] 11
10 May 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[87][88] 908 36 24 19 2 5 2 2 1 – [n 4] 9
7 May 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[89] 1,002 34 16 23 3 4 4 4 3 – [n 4] 8
27 April 2022 Red C/Business Post[90] 1,014 34 16 21 4 4 5 3 2 – [n 4] 11
1 April 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[91] 1,135 33 18 22 3 4 6 2 3 – [n 4] 10
23 March 2022 Red C/Business Post[92] 1,001 33 16 19 5 5 5 3 2 – [n 4] 12
8 March 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[93] 928 33 23 24 4 3 1 2 1 – [n 4] 9
4 March 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[94] 1,011 31 20 21 4 3 6 4 2 – [n 4] 9
23 February 2022 Red C/Business Post[95] 1,001 33 17 20 5 4 4 3 2 – [n 4] 11
8 February 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[96] 922 34 25 20 5 4 2 1 0 – [n 4] 9
5 February 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[97] 1,086 32 17 23 4 3 5 3 3 – [n 4] 10
26 January 2022 Red C/Business Post[98] 1,001 33 15 21 6 4 5 2 2 – [n 4] 12
18 January 2022 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[99] ? 34 24 22 3 4 1 2 0 – [n 4] 10
8 January 2022 Ireland Thinks/Sunday Independent[100] 1,369 33 19 23 3 4 4 3 2 – [n 4] 9
12 December 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[101] ? 31 17 25 4 4 3 4 3 – [n 4] 9
8 December 2021 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[102] 933 34 23 20 5 5 2 1 0 – [n 4] 9
8 December 2021 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[103][104] 1,200 35 20 20 5 4 2 2 1 – [n 4] 10
25 November 2021 Red C/Business Post[105] 1,001 33 15 22 5 4 5 2 2 – [n 4] 10
14 November 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[106] ? 32 17 24 5 5 4 3 3 – [n 4] 7
9 November 2021 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[107] 912 37 20 21 5 3 3 1 1 – [n 4] 8
22 October 2021 Red C/Business Post[108] ? 33 12 25 4 5 6 3 2 – [n 4] 10
16 October 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[109] 1,200 31 16 26 6 4 4 3 3 – [n 4] – [n 2]
12 October 2021 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[110] 943 31 23 21 5 5 4 1 1 – [n 4] 8
5 October 2021 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[111][112] 1,200 32 20 22 7 4 3 2 1 – [n 4] 10
18 September 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[113] 1,000 29 19 23 4 4 6 4 4 – [n 4] – [n 2]
9 September 2021 Red C/Business Post[114] 1,031 29 13 28 4 5 5 3 2 – [n 4] 10
8 September 2021 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[115] 922 33 21 23 5 5 2 2 0 – [n 4] 8
21 August 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[116] 1,203 30 15 24 4 6 6 3 3 – [n 4] 9
17 July 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[117] 1,001 30 14 25 4 7 5 4 4 – [n 4] 7
13 July 2021 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[118] 894 30 20 25 5 5 1 3 1 – [n 4] 10
26 June 2021 Red C/Business Post[119] 1,020 29 13 30 5 3 4 2 2 – [n 4] 12
19 June 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[120] 1,274 32 15 24 3 4 5 4 4 – [n 4] 10
15 June 2021 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[121] 1,200 31 20 27 6 3 2 2 1 – [n 4] 8
8 June 2021 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[122] 909 34 20 24 4 3 4 1 1 – [n 4] 9
27 May 2021 Red C/Business Post[123][124] 1,034 29 14 29 5 3 5 3 2 – [n 4] 10
18 May 2021 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[125] 914 30 22 28 5 4 2 1 – [n 2] – [n 4] 8
15 May 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[126] 1,237 30 15 25 3 4 7 3 4 – [n 4] 9
22 April 2021 Red C/Business Post[127] 1,025 27 13 30 4 5 5 2 2 – [n 4] 11
15 April 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[128] 1,087 27 16 26 3 5 6 3 4 – [n 4] 10
25 March 2021 Red C/Business Post[129] 1,000 29 11 30 5 4 5 2 2 – [n 4] 11
20 March 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[130] 1,026 31 14 27 2 5 7 3 3 – [n 4] 8
25 February 2021 Red C/Business Post[131][132] 1,000 29 13 29 3 4 6 2 2 – [n 4] 12
23 February 2021 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[133] 1,200 28 14 30 6 3 3 1 1 – [n 4] 14
12 February 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[134] 1,068 28 15 26 5 5 6 3 4 – [n 4] 9
28 January 2021 Red C/Business Post[135][136] 1,000 27 16 29 5 3 5 3 2 – [n 4] 10
17 January 2021 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[137] 1,247 29 15 28 3 5 5 3 4 – [n 4] 7
15 December 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[138] 916 32 22 27 3 5 1 2 0 – [n 4] 7
29 November 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[139] 1,044 28 17 28 4 4 5 2 4 – [n 4] 9
25 November 2020 Red C/Business Post[140] 1,000 30 12 33 5 3 4 3 2 – [n 4] 8
24 October 2020 Red C/Business Post[141][142] 1,000 27 11 37 6 3 3 2 2 – [n 4] 9
17 October 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[143] 931 30 19 31 5 4 2 2 1 – [n 4] 5
6 October 2020 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[144] 1,200 29 17 35 4 4 2 1 – [n 2] – [n 4] 8
26 September 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[145] 1,200 28 14 32 4 4 5 3 3 – [n 4] 7
15 September 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[146] 900 32 19 30 5 3 1 1 0 – [n 4] 9
9 September 2020 Red C/Business Post[147] 1,000 27 10 35 6 3 4 2 2 – [n 4] 10
22 August 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[148] 1,000 30 11 35 3 5 5 2 2 – [n 4] 7
28 July 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[149] 921 30 20 29 6 3 1 1 0 – [n 4] 11
18 July 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[150] 1,000 26 12 38 5 4 3 2 – [n 2] – [n 4] 10
20 June 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[151] 1,000 27 13 34 8 4 3 2 – [n 2] – [n 4] 10
14 June 2020 Ipsos MRBI/|Irish Times[152] 1,200 25 13 37 12 2 [n 5] [n 5] [n 5] – [n 4] 10[n 5]
27 May 2020 Red C/Business Post[153][154] 1,000 27 15 35 5 3 4 2 1 – [n 4] 8
23 May 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[155] 1,012 27 16 36 6 4 3 2 – [n 2] – [n 4] 6
29 April 2020 Red C/Business Post[156][157] 1,019 27 14 35 7 3 3 2 1 – [n 4] 8
25 March 2020 Red C/Business Post[158][159] 1,062 28 18 34 5 3 3 2 2 – [n 4] 5
10 March 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[160][161] 912 35 19 21 6 3 1 3 0 – [n 4] 11
25 February 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[162][163] 917 35 20 18 6 3 2 3 1 – [n 4] 12
16 February 2020 Amárach Research/Extra.ie[164][165] 1,040 35 17 18 9 3 5 3 – [n 2] – [n 4] 10
8 February 2020 General election – 24.5 22.2 20.9 7.1 4.4 2.9 2.6 1.9 – [n 4] 13.5

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ The figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am Not specifically mentioned in the report.
  3. ^ a b Includes 19% for 'Independent' and 2% for 'Other Party'.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an ao ap aq ar as at au av aw ax ay az ba bb bc bd be bf bg bh bi bj bk bl bm bn bo bp bq br bs bt bu bv bw bx by bz ca cb cc cd ce cf cg ch ci cj ck cl cm cn co cp cq cr cs ct cu cv cw cx cy cz da db dc dd de df dg dh di dj Party did not exist.
  5. ^ a b c d The figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. In the MRBI Poll conducted up to 14 June this figure appears to include all independents as well as all of PBP/S, Aontú and the SocDems.

References

[edit]
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