2025 Kosovan parliamentary election
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All 120 seats in the Assembly 61 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Kosovo on 9 February 2025.[1]
Background
[edit]In the 2021 elections Lëvizja Vetëvendosje (LVV) won 58 seats.[2] They created a coalition with minority parties to form a Government.[3]
Electoral system
[edit]The 120 members of the Assembly of Kosovo are elected by open list proportional representation, with 20 seats reserved for national minorities.[4] An electoral threshold of 5% is in place for non-minority parties. Seats are allocated using the Webster/Sainte-Laguë method.[5] To form a government, a party or coalition must have a majority of 61 MPs out of 120 seats in the Assembly of Kosovo.
Opinion polls
[edit]Graphic representation
[edit]Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
National polls
[edit]Pollster | Date | LVV | LDK | PDK | AAK-NISMA-CL (Coalition) | SL | Other | Abstention | Lead | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LVV | A | Guxo | LDK | AKR | AAK | NISMA | CLK | |||||||
UBO | 3–15 June 2024 | 49.6 | – | 0.7 | 15.5 | – | 17.0 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 32.6 | ||
Albanian Post | 1-10 June 2024 | 41.1 | – | – | 19.2 | – | 19.6 | 5.8 | – | 5.1 | 9.2 | 21.5 | ||
ISRN | 6 May 2024 | 38 | – | 1.5 | 18.2 | 1.7 | 17.2 | 12.4 | – | 3.7 | 2.2 | 19.8 | ||
UBO | 5 April 2024 | 49.5 | – | 0.6 | 16 | – | 17.1 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 4.3 | – | 32.4 | ||
27 March 2024 | Bedri Hamza is nominated by the Democratic Party of Kosovo for Prime Minister | |||||||||||||
PIPOS | 22 February 2024 | 40.9 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 21.5 | – | 20.4 | 9.0 | – | 0.4 | 4.6 | 19.4 | ||
17 January 2024 | AAK, Social Democratic NISMA and Conservative List of Kosovo form an electoral alliance | |||||||||||||
UBO | 16–23 December 2023 | 48.5 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 17.9 | – | 18.2 | 6.8 | 1.5 | – | 3.2 | 3.0 | – | 30.3 |
UBO | 23 December 2022 | 42.6 | 0.2 | 1.3 | 19.8 | 0.2 | 19 | 7.3 | 2 | – | 4.3 | 3.4 | – | 22.8 |
PIPOS | December 2022 | 35.5 | – | 1 | 22.2 | 0.4 | 21.5 | 6 | 2.4 | – | – | 0.2 | – | 13.3 |
UBO | September 2022 | 37.3 | 0.3 | 1.5 | 22.3 | 0.3 | 21.7 | 7.7 | 1.2 | – | 5.1 | 2.1 | – | 15 |
PIPOS | August 2022 | 33.2 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 21.6 | 0.2 | 18.3 | 10.1 | 1.5 | – | – | – | – | 11.6 |
PIPOS | 7 July 2022 | 38.1 | – | 1.2 | 25.1 | – | 21.3 | 11.9 | 2.1 | – | – | – | – | 13 |
UBO | 18 June 2022 | 39.6 | – | 1.3 | 20.3 | – | 21.9 | 6.7 | 1.9 | – | 4.2 | 3.5 | – | 17.7 |
UBO | May 2022 | 38.3 | – | – | 17.7 | – | 19.7 | 6.5 | – | – | – | – | – | 18.6 |
UBO | 7–15 March 2022 | 41.9 | – | 1.1 | 19.4 | 0.4 | 21.6 | 7.2 | 1 | – | 4.2 | 2.8 | – | 20.3 |
PIPOS | 12 February 2022 | 34.7 | – | – | 24.1 | – | 21.3 | 7.7 | 0.4 | – | – | 0.5 | – | 10.6 |
2021 election | 14 February 2021 | 50.3 | 12.73 | 17.01 | 7.2 | 2.52 | – | 5.09 | – | – | 33.29 |
Seat projections
[edit]The projections below are calculated according to the opinion polls from above.
Date | LVV | LDK | PDK | AAK | SL | Other | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
June 2024 | 55 | 17 | 19 | 9[b] | 10 | 10 | 36 |
49 | 22 | 23 | 6[b] | 10 | 10 | 26 | |
May 2024 | 45 | 21 | 20 | 14[b] | 10 | 10 | 24 |
April 2024 | 56 | 18 | 19 | 7[b] | 10 | 10 | 37 |
February 2024 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 10[b] | 10 | 10 | 22 |
December 2023 | 53 | 20 | 20 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 33 |
January 2023 | 48 | 22 | 22 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 26 |
December 2022 | 42 | 26 | 25 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 16 |
September 2022 | 42 | 25 | 24 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 17 |
August 2022 | 40 | 26 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 14 |
July 2022 | 40 | 26 | 22 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 14 |
June 2022 | 44 | 23 | 25 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 19 |
May 2022 | 47 | 21 | 24 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 23 |
March 2022 | 46 | 22 | 24 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 22 |
February 2022 | 40 | 27 | 24 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 13 |
Leadership approval
[edit]Dates conducted |
Pollster | Sample size |
Vjosa Osmani | Albin Kurti | Lumir Abdixhiku | Memli Krasniqi | Ramush Haradinaj | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | Pos. | Neg. | Net | |||
6-27 May 2024 | UBO | 1,200 | 64% | 30% | +34% | 59% | 35% | +24% | 35% | 54% | -19% | 28% | 63% | -35% | 21% | 66% | -45% |
Pollster | Date | Kurti | Abdixhiku | Krasniqi | Hamza | Haradinaj | Limaj | Osmani | Pacolli | Kusari-Lila | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Albanian Post | June 2024 | 56.4 | 40.5 | 28.9 | 43.7 | 25.4 | – | 67.8 | – | – | – [c] |
45.6 | 18.6 | – | 20.5 | 6.2 | – | – | – | – | 25.1 | ||
PIPOS | February 2024 | 3.07 | 2.13 | 2.05 | – | 1.89 | 1.65 | 3.06 | – | – | 0.01 |
PIPOS | December 2022 | 26.7 | 20 | 17 | – | 7.2 | 2.9 | 11.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 6.7 |
PIPOS | August 2022 | 2.98 | 2.92 | 2.60 | – | 2.38 | 2.13 | 3.37 | 2.33 | 2.31 | 0.39 |
PIPOS | February 2022 | 28.9 | 18.6 | 13.3 | – | 6.2 | 1.5 | 7.3 | 0.5 | – | 10.3 |
Albin Kurti
[edit]The polls below asked voters for their opinion of Albin Kurti, prime minister of Kosovo since March 2021.
Pollster | Date | Approve | Disapprove | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|
UNDP | 25 July 2024 | 58.3 | 41.7 | 16.6 |
UNDP | 28 February 2024 | 48.9 | 51.1 | -2.6 |
UNDP | 25 April 2023 | 51.5 | 48.5 | 3.0 |
Glauk Konjufca
[edit]The polls below asked voters for their opinion of Glauk Konjufca, chairman of Assembly of the Republic of Kosovo since March 2021.
Pollster | Date | Approve | Disapprove | Lead |
---|---|---|---|---|
UNDP | 25 July 2024 | 64.4 | 35.6 | 28.8 |
UNDP | 28 February 2024 | 52.2 | 47.8 | 4.7 |
UNDP | 25 April 2023 | 58.3 | 41.7 | 16.6 |
Notes
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "Presidentja Osmani nxjerr dekretin: Zgjedhjet e rregullta parlamentare mbahen më 9 shkurt 2025". Telegrafi (in Albanian). 2024-08-16. Retrieved 2024-08-16.
- ^ ndi.org
- ^ prishtinainsight.com
- ^ Kosovo IFES
- ^ Law No. 03/L-073 on General Elections in the Republic of Kosovo, Article 111.2