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Next Valencian regional election

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Next Valencian regional election
← 2023 No later than 27 June 2027
All 99 seats in the Corts Valencianes
50 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Carlos Mazón Diana Morant Joan Baldoví
Party PP PSPV–PSOE Compromís
Leader since 3 July 2021 23 March 2024 13 February 2023
Leader's seat Alicante — Valencia
Last election 40 seats, 35.7% 31 seats, 28.7% 15 seats, 14.5%
Current seats 40 31 15
Seats needed Green arrow up10 Green arrow up19 Green arrow up35
 
Leader José María Llanos
Party Vox
Leader since 1 January 2024
Leader's seat Valencia
Last election 13 seats, 12.6%
Current seats 13
Seats needed Green arrow up37
Incumbent President

Carlos Mazón
PP



The next Valencian regional election will be held no later than Sunday, 27 June 2027, to elect the 12th Corts of the Valencian Community. All 99 seats in the Corts will be up for election.

The 2023 election resulted in a coalition government being formed between the People's Party (PP) and Vox, with PP's Carlos Mazón becoming the new regional president. The coalition lasted until July 2024, when Vox broke up all of its regional coalition governments with the PP including the Valencian one. On 29 October 2024, catastrophic floods across the province of Valencia shook Mazón's tenure as the mounting death toll and the perceived ill-management of the crisis sparked widespread protests, causing his party to plummet in opinion polls.

Overview

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Electoral system

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The Corts Valencianes are the devolved, unicameral legislature of the Valencian autonomous community, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Valencian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[1] Voting for the Corts is on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprises all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in the Valencian Community and in full enjoyment of their political rights.[2]

The 99 members of the Corts Valencianes are elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of five percent of valid votes—which includes blank ballots—being applied regionally. Seats are allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Alicante, Castellón and Valencia, with each being allocated an initial minimum of 20 seats and the remaining 39 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the seat-to-population ratio in any given province does not exceed three times that of any other).[3][4]

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Corts constituency is entitled the following seats:

Seats Constituencies
40 Valencia
35 Alicante
24 Castellón

Election date

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The term of the Corts Valencianes expires four years after the date of their previous election, unless they are dissolved earlier. The election decree shall be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Journal of the Valencian Government (DOGV), with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 28 May 2023, which meant that the legislature's term will expire on 28 May 2027. The election decree must be published in the DOGV no later than 4 May 2027, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Corts on Sunday, 27 June 2027.[5][6][7]

The president has the prerogative to dissolve the Corts Valencianes and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence is in process.[8] In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the Corts are to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called.[9]

Parliamentary composition

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The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Corts at the present time.[10]

Current parliamentary composition
Groups Parties Legislators
Seats Total
People's Parliamentary Group PP 40 40
Socialist Parliamentary Group PSPV–PSOE 31 31
Commitment Parliamentary Group Compromís 15 15
Vox Valencian Courts Parliamentary Group Vox 13 13

Parties and candidates

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The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[11][12]

Below is a list of the main parties and electoral alliances which contested the election:

Candidacy Parties and
alliances 		Leading candidate Ideology Previous result Gov. Ref.
Votes (%) Seats
PP
List
 Carlos Mazón Conservatism
Christian democracy 		35.75% 40 checkY
PSPV–PSOE
List
 Diana Morant Social democracy 28.70% 31 ☒N [13]
[14]
Compromís
List
 Joan Baldoví Valencian nationalism
Eco-socialism
Green politics 		14.51% 15 ☒N
Vox
List
 José María Llanos Right-wing populism
Ultranationalism
National conservatism 		12.57% 10 ☒N [15]
Unides
Podem–EUPV
List
 TBD Left-wing populism
Direct democracy
Democratic socialism 		3.57% 0 ☒N

Opinion polls

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The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Graphical summary

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Local regression trend line of poll results from 28 May 2023 to the present day, with each line corresponding to a political party.

Voting intention estimates

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The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 50 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Corts Valencianes.

Polling firm/Commissioner Fieldwork date Sample size Turnout PP PSPV Compromís Vox
Podemos 		Sumar SALF Lead
Sigma Dos/El Mundo[p 1] 25 Nov–4 Dec 2024 1,202 ? 25.4
29/31 		24.6
28/30 		21.4
20/22 		17.2
18/20 		3.3
0 		– 3.1
0 		0.8
Social Data/Grupo Viva[p 2] 25–27 Nov 2024 1,000 ? 25.8
28/31 		25.9
27/30 		19.0
20/21 		17.9
19/22 		2.3
0 		– 3.8
0/3 		0.1
40dB/Prisa[p 3][p 4] 22–25 Nov 2024 800 ? 30.2 29.3 14.7 16.4 3.6 – – 0.9
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 5] 2–16 Nov 2024 924 ? 24.2
25 		30.0
32 		21.4
22 		19.9
20 		2.0
0 		– – 5.8
SyM Consulting/EPDA[p 6] 8–11 Nov 2024 2,267 59.5 30.9
33/34 		27.5
31/32 		16.6
16 		16.4
17/18 		3.5
0 		– – 3.4
Demoscopia y Servicios/ESdiario[p 7] 7–8 Nov 2024 1,200 65.0 32.3
37 		26.7
28 		15.0
15 		13.1
14 		4.1
0 		– 5.8
5 		5.6
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 8] 29 Oct–8 Nov 2024 776 ? 24.8
25 		29.5
32 		21.5
22 		19.3
20 		1.7
0 		– – 4.7
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 8] 29 Sep–27 Oct 2024 1,450 ? 38.2
41 		30.4
33 		16.9
16 		10.2
9 		2.5
0 		– – 7.8
Demoscopia y Servicios/ESdiario[p 9] 2–5 Oct 2024 1,200 63.0 42.2
47 		28.8
32 		11.7
12 		9.1
8 		3.0
0 		– 3.3
0 		13.4
Lápiz Estratégico/Prensa Ibérica[p 10] 23–30 Sep 2024 751 ? 41.7
46 		31.3
34 		10.6
11 		8.2
8 		3.0
0 		1.8
0 		– 10.4
SocioMétrica/PP[p 11] 23–27 Sep 2024 2,500 ? 40.1
44 		29.3
32 		11.8
11 		11.2
12 		3.1
0 		– – 10.8
NC Report/La Razón[p 12] 13–17 Jul 2024 1,000 68.1 39.8
44/45 		29.3
32 		13.2
13 		9.8
9/10 		2.5
0 		– 3.1
0 		10.5
Data10/OKDiario[p 13] 12–13 Jul 2024 1,500 ? 40.7
46 		30.5
33 		11.4
11 		10.2
9 		3.4
0 		– – 10.2
2024 EP election 9 Jun 2024 — 52.0 35.9
(40) 		31.5
(34) 		[a] 11.5
(12) 		3.0
(0) 		7.7
(8) 		5.8
(5) 		4.4
Demoscopia y Servicios/ESdiario[p 14] 20–22 Mar 2024 1,200 63.0 41.1
46 		26.8
28 		16.2
16 		10.2
9 		– – – 14.3
ElectoPanel/Electomanía[p 15] 29 Jan–26 Feb 2024 1,450 ? 35.8
38 		30.2
33 		16.7
16 		12.1
12 		1.5
0 		– – 5.6
Demoscopia y Servicios/ESdiario[p 16] 15–21 Dec 2023 1,200 63.0 40.8
45 		27.2
29 		15.8
15 		10.2
10 		– – – 13.6
SocioMétrica/PP[p 17] 10–13 Oct 2023 2,500 ? ?
43 		?
33 		?
11 		?
12 		– – – ?
Demoscopia y Servicios/ESdiario[p 18] 6–7 Oct 2023 1,200 ? 39.3
42 		28.1
29 		17.4
17 		11.3
11 		– – – 11.2
2023 general election 23 Jul 2023 — 71.5 34.9
(36) 		32.1
(33) 		[a] 15.6
(16) 		[a] 15.2
(14) 		– 2.8
2023 regional election 28 May 2023 — 67.0 35.7
40 		28.7
31 		14.5
15 		12.6
13 		3.6
0 		– – 7.0

Voting preferences

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The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Victory preferences

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The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Victory likelihood

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The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Preferred President

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The table below lists opinion polling on leader preferences to become president of the Valencian Government.

Notes

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  1. ^ a b c Within Compromís–Sumar.

References

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Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "El PP valenciano se desploma tras la DANA y el PSOE cae mientras Compromís y Vox rompen su techo electoral". El Mundo. 8 December 2024.
  2. ^ a b "La gestión de la dana aboca a Mazón a un desastre electoral: perdería el 50% de votantes". Viva Valencia (in Spanish). 28 November 2024.
  3. ^ "Vox recoge el desplome del PP de Mazón por la gestión de la dana mientras crecen PSOE y Compromís". El País. 9 December 2024.
  4. ^ a b "Barómetro Mensual. Voto en la Comunitat Valenciana. Diciembre 2024" (PDF). 40dB. 9 December 2024.
  5. ^ "ElectoPanel Com. Valenciana (18N): el PP sigue erosionándose". Electomanía (in Spanish). 18 November 2024.
  6. ^ "El PP pierde hasta siete diputados en Les Corts tras la gestión de la DANA y cede terreno a Vox, según una encuesta". El Periódico de Aquí (in Spanish). 14 November 2024.
  7. ^ "Encuesta post DANA: el PP cae pero el auge de los extremos permitiría a Mazón resistir". ESdiario (in Spanish). 11 November 2024.
  8. ^ a b "ElectoPanel Com. Valenciana: derrumbe del PP mientras Vox y Compromís capitalizan la hecatombe popular". Electomanía (in Spanish). 8 November 2024.
  9. ^ "El PP de Carlos Mazón roza la mayoría absoluta y Alvise ya rasca 75.000 votos". ESdiario (in Spanish). 8 October 2024.
  10. ^ a b c d "El PP se acerca a la mayoría absoluta y suma solo más que la izquierda". Levante-EMV (in Spanish). 9 October 2024.
  11. ^ "El PP de Mazón se dispara hasta los 44 escaños, más que toda la izquierda junta". Las Provincias (in Spanish). 7 October 2024.
  12. ^ "El PP sigue recuperando votantes pero no llega a la mayoría absoluta en la Comunitat Valenciana". La Razón (in Spanish). 27 July 2024.
  13. ^ "Mazón sube a costa de Vox pero sigue necesitando a los de Abascal para la mayoría absoluta". OKDiario (in Spanish). 15 July 2024.
  14. ^ "Barómetro Primavera 2024: El PP de Mazón saca más que toda la izquierda junta". ESdiario (in Spanish). 24 March 2024.
  15. ^ "EP Com. Valenciana (28feb): Mazón seguiría al frente de la Generalitat". Electomanía (in Spanish). 28 February 2024.
  16. ^ "Barómetro invierno 2023: El PP de Carlos Mazón se dispara a los 45 escaños". ESdiario (in Spanish). 30 December 2023.
  17. ^ a b "Cien días de Gobierno de Mazón: el PPCV gana tres escaños y Compromís se desploma". Las Provincias (in Spanish). 27 October 2023.
  18. ^ "Encuesta 9 d'Octubre: Carlos Mazón consolida el cambio y el PP sube 3 puntos". ESdiario (in Spanish). 9 October 2023.
Other
  1. ^ Valencian SoA (1982), tit. III, ch. II, art. 21–26.
  2. ^ Valencian El. Law (1987), tit. I, ch. I, art. 2.
  3. ^ Valencian SoA (1982), tit. III, ch. II, art. 23–24.
  4. ^ Valencian El. Law (1987), tit. II, art. 10–12.
  5. ^ Valencian SoA (1982), tit. III, ch. II, art. 23.
  6. ^ Valencian El. Law (1987), tit. III, art. 14.
  7. ^ LOREG (1985), tit. I, ch. V, art. 42.
  8. ^ Valencian SoA (1982), tit. III, ch. III, art. 28.
  9. ^ Valencian SoA (1982), tit. III, ch. III, art. 27.
  10. ^ "Grupos parlamentarios". Corts Valencianes (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 November 2023.
  11. ^ Valencian El. Law (1987), tit. V, ch. I, art. 26.
  12. ^ LOREG (1985), tit. I, ch. VI, art. 44.
  13. ^ Bono, Ferran (16 December 2023). "Ximo Puig renuncia al liderazgo de los socialistas valencianos y convoca un congreso extraordinario". El País (in Spanish). Valencia. Retrieved 17 December 2023.
  14. ^ "El congreso extraordinario del PSPV proclama a Diana Morant como secretaria general". elDiario.es (in Spanish). Valencia. 23 March 2024. Retrieved 2 April 2024.
  15. ^ Moreno, Nuria (19 December 2023). "Vox relega a Ana Vega y sitúa a José María Llanos como síndic en Les Corts Valencianes" (in Spanish). Valencia: Onda Cero. Retrieved 17 November 2024.

Bibliography

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