2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election
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The 2018 Hawaii gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Hawaii and lieutenant governor of Hawaii.
After prevailing in an intensely competitive primary election on August 11, 2018, incumbent Democratic governor David Ige ran successfully for re-election to a second term in office, considerably improving on his margin of victory from 2014, in which he only won a plurality.
Republicans Andria Tupola and Marissa Kerns headed one of two 2018 major-party gubernatorial tickets that included two women. The other such ticket had Idaho's 2018 Democratic nominees for governor and lieutenant governor, Paulette Jordan and Kristin Collum.[1] This was Hawaii's only gubernatorial election since 1994 without Linda Lingle or Duke Aiona as the Republican nominee, as well as the first since the 1990 election in which the winner was of a different party than the incumbent president. As of 2023, this election was the only time since 1998 that an incumbent Democratic governor of Hawaii was re-elected.
Democratic primary
[edit]Governor
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Ernest Caravalho, Democratic Party of Hawaii, chair, House District 29[2]
- Colleen Hanabusa, U.S. representative and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014[3][4][5]
- David Ige, incumbent governor[3][6]
- Wendell Kaehuaea, security guard and perennial candidate[7]
- Van Tanabe
Withdrew
[edit]- Clayton Hee, former state senator and candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014[8][9]
Debates
[edit]| Dates | Location | Ige | Hanabusa | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 6, 2018 | Honolulu, Hawaii | Participant | Participant | Full debate – YouTube |
Endorsements
[edit]Colleen Hanabusa
Individuals
- Ben Cayetano, former governor of Hawai'i[10]
- Tulsi Gabbard, congresswoman for HI-2[11]
- Shan Tsutsui, former lieutenant governor of Hawai'i[12]
Organizations
- Hawaii Regional Council of Carpenters[13]
- Hawaii Government Employees Association[13]
- State of Hawaii Organization of Police Officers[13]
- International Union of Operating Engineers[13]
- International Longshore and Warehouse Union[13]
- Hawaii Building and Construction Trades Council[13]
- University of Hawaii Professional Assembly[13]
- International Union of Painters and Associated Trades[13]
- Laborers' International Union of North America[13]
- Hawaii Fire Fighters Association[13]
- Hawaii State AFL-CIO[13]
- Seafarers International Union[13]
David Ige
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Ige |
Colleen Hanabusa |
Clayton Hee |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merriman River Group[14] | July 19–21, 2018 | 871 | ± 3.3% | 43% | 34% | – | 18% |
| Mason-Dixon[15] | July 6–11, 2018 | 494 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 40% | – | 16% |
| QMark Research (D-Hanabusa)[16] | June 21 – July 6, 2018 | 518 | ± 4.4% | 31% | 57% | – | 11% |
| QMark Research (D-Hanabusa)[17] | April 21 – May 7, 2018 | 888 | ± 3.4% | 23% | 52% | 6% | 19% |
| Merriman River Group[18] | May 3–5, 2018 | 707 | ± 3.7% | 31% | 37% | 11% | 16% |
| Mason-Dixon[19] | March 13–18, 2018 | 498 | ± 4.5% | 27% | 47% | 11% | 15% |
Results
[edit]
Ige—50–60%
Ige—40–50%
Hanabusa—40–50%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | David Ige (incumbent) | 124,572 | 51.4 | |
| Democratic | Colleen Hanabusa | 107,631 | 44.4 | |
| Democratic | Ernest Caravalho | 5,662 | 2.3 | |
| Democratic | Wendell Ka'ehu'ae'a | 2,298 | 0.9 | |
| Democratic | Richard Kim | 1,576 | 0.6 | |
| Democratic | Van Tanabe | 775 | 0.3 | |
| Total votes | 242,514 | 100.0 | ||
Lieutenant governor
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Bernard Carvalho, Mayor of Kauai County[21]
- Will Espero, State Senate Vice President and candidate for HI-01 in 2014[22]
- Josh Green, state senator[4][23][22]
- Kim Coco Iwamoto, former state Board of Education member[24]
- Jill Tokuda, State Senator[3]
Withdrew
[edit]- Alan Arakawa, Mayor of Maui County[25] (running for Maui County Council)[26]
Endorsements
[edit]Kim Coco Iwamoto
Organizations
- UNITE Here Local 5[27]
Individuals
- Daniel Foley, attorney in Baehr v. Miike and retired judge of the Hawaii Intermediate Court of Appeals[28]
Jill Tokuda
Organizations
- University of Hawaii Professional Assembly[29]
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Bernard Carvalho |
Will Espero |
Josh Green |
Kim Coco Iwamoto |
Jill Tokuda |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merriman River Group[30] | July 19–21, 2018 | 871 | ± 3.3% | 13% | 5% | 31% | 10% | 17% | 26% |
| Mason-Dixon[15] | July 6–11, 2018 | 494 | ± 4.5% | 14% | 6% | 34% | 10% | 14% | 22% |
| Merriman River Group[31] | May 3–5, 2018 | 707 | ± 3.7% | 19% | 8% | 16% | 14% | 11% | 32% |
| Mason-Dixon[19] | March 13–18, 2018 | 498 | ± 4.5% | 14% | 9% | 19% | 5% | 12% | 41% |
Results
[edit]
Green—50–60%
Green—30–40%
Tokuda—30–40%
Carvalho—40–50%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Josh Green | 74,845 | 31.4 | |
| Democratic | Jill Tokuda | 68,124 | 28.6 | |
| Democratic | Bernard Carvalho | 45,825 | 19.2 | |
| Democratic | Kim Coco Iwamoto | 34,243 | 14.3 | |
| Democratic | Will Espero | 15,463 | 6.5 | |
| Total votes | 238,500 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
[edit]Governor
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- John Carroll, former state representative, and former state senator[7][32]
- Ray L'Heureux, president and chairman of the Education Institute of Hawaii, former assistant superintendent, and retired U.S. Marine colonel[33]
- Andria Tupola, Minority Leader of the Hawaii House of Representatives[34][32]
Withdrew
[edit]- Bob McDermott, state representative and nominee for HI-02 in 2002[35][36]
Endorsements
[edit]Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
John Carroll |
Raymond L'Heureux |
Andria Tupola |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merriman River Group[38] | July 19–21, 2018 | 219 | ± 6.6% | 22% | 4% | 39% | 22% |
| Mason-Dixon[39] | July 6–11, 2018 | 143 | ± 8.4% | 28% | 8% | 41% | 23% |
| Mason-Dixon[19] | March 13–18, 2018 | 134 | ± 8.6% | 40% | – | 28% | 32% |
Results
[edit]
Tupola—50–60%
Tupola—40–50%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Andria Tupola | 17,297 | 55.5 | |
| Republican | John Carroll | 10,974 | 35.2 | |
| Republican | Ray L'Heureux | 2,885 | 9.3 | |
| Total votes | 31,156 | 100.0 | ||
Lieutenant governor
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Marissa Kerns
- Steve Lipscomb
- Jeremy Low
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Marissa Kerns |
Jeremy Low |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merriman River Group[40] | July 19–21, 2018 | 219 | ± 6.6% | 26% | 20% | 54% |
Results
[edit]
Kerns—30–40%
Lipscomb—30–40%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Marissa Dipasupil Kerns | 9,758 | 35.4 | |
| Republican | Steve Lipscomb | 9,543 | 34.7 | |
| Republican | Jeremy Low | 8,232 | 29.9 | |
| Total votes | 27,533 | 100.0 | ||
Green primary
[edit]Governor
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Jim Brewer
Results
[edit]
Brewer—100%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Jim Brewer | 454 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 454 | 100.0 | ||
Lieutenant governor
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Renee Ing
Results
[edit] Ing—100%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green | Renee Ing | 444 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 444 | 100.0 | ||
Nonpartisan primary
[edit]Governor
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Selina Blackwell
- Link El
- Terrence Teruya
Results
[edit]
Teruya—50–60%
Blackwell—40–50%
Blackwell—50–60%
No data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonpartisan | Terrence Teruya | 543 | 47.7 | |
| Nonpartisan | Selina Blackwell | 497 | 43.7 | |
| Nonpartisan | Link El | 98 | 8.6 | |
| Total votes | 1,138 | 100.0 | ||
Lieutenant governor
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Ernest Magaoay
- Paul Robotti
Results
[edit]
Robotti—50–60%
Magaoay—50–60%
No Data
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonpartisan | Paul Robotti | 536 | 50.6 | |
| Nonpartisan | Ernest Magaoay | 523 | 49.4 | |
| Total votes | 1,059 | 100.0 | ||
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[41] | Safe D | October 26, 2018 |
| The Washington Post[42] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| FiveThirtyEight[43] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[44] | Safe D | November 1, 2018 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| RealClearPolitics[46] | Safe D | November 4, 2018 |
| Daily Kos[47] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Fox News[48][a] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
| Politico[49] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
| Governing[50] | Safe D | November 5, 2018 |
- Notes
- ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races
Debates
[edit]| Dates | Location | Ige | Tupola | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 29, 2018 | Honolulu, Hawaii | Participant | Participant | Full debate[51] – C-SPAN |
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Ige (D) |
Andria Tupola (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merriman River Group[52] | October 8–12, 2018 | 961 | ± 4.3% | 52% | 31% | 11% |
| Mason-Dixon[53] | July 6–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 57% | 34% | 9% |
| Mason-Dixon[19] | March 13–18, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 51% | 24% | 25% |
Hypothetical polling
with David Ige and John Carroll
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Ige (D) |
John Carroll (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[53] | July 6–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 62% | 23% | 15% |
| Mason-Dixon[19] | March 13–18, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 52% | 27% | 21% |
with David Ige and Raymond L'Heureux
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
David Ige (D) |
Raymond L'Heureux (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[53] | July 6–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 67% | 20% | 13% |
with Colleen Hanabusa and John Carroll
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Colleen Hanabusa (D) |
John Carroll (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[53] | July 6–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 51% | 31% | 18% |
| Mason-Dixon[19] | March 13–18, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 57% | 31% | 12% |
with Colleen Hanabusa and Andria Tupola
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Colleen Hanabusa (D) |
Andria Tupola (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[53] | July 6–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 35% | 17% |
| Mason-Dixon[19] | March 13–18, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 56% | 28% | 16% |
with Colleen Hanabusa and Raymond L'Heureux
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Colleen Hanabusa (D) |
Raymond L'Heureux (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon[53] | July 6–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 58% | 26% | 16% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | David Ige (incumbent) | 244,934 | 62.67% |  13.22
| |
| Republican | Andria Tupola | 131,719 | 33.70% |  3.38
| |
| Green | Jim Brewer | 10,123 | 2.59% | N/A | |
| Nonpartisan | Terrence Teruya | 4,067 | 1.04% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 390,843 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
By congressional district
[edit]Ige won both congressional districts.[55]
| District | Ige | Tupola | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 64% | 33% | Colleen Hanabusa (117th Congress) |
| Ed Case (118th Congress) | |||
| 2nd | 61% | 35% | Tulsi Gabbard |
References
[edit]- ^ Trahant, Mark (August 19, 2018). "Idaho is no longer safe for Republicans; Paulette Jordan trails by 8 points". Indian Country Today. Retrieved December 2, 2019 – via News Maven.
- ^ "Ernest Caravalho". Ballotpedia. Retrieved July 6, 2018.
- ^ a b c Singer, Jeff (June 6, 2017). "Why several Hawaii Democrats are mulling primary bids against Gov. David Ige". Daily Kos. Retrieved June 6, 2017.
- ^ a b Hooser, Gary (August 9, 2017). "Brace yourselves, primaries are coming". The Garden Island. Archived from the original on August 15, 2017. Retrieved August 22, 2017.
- ^ "U.S. Rep. Hanabusa announces plans to run for governor". Hawaii News Now. September 1, 2017. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
- ^ Callis, Tom (January 3, 2016). "Green saving up for run at higher office". Hawaii Tribune-Herald. Archived from the original on November 16, 2016. Retrieved November 15, 2016.
- ^ a b Cook Lauer, Nancy (January 6, 2018). "Familiar candidate aims for governor". West Hawaii Today. Archived from the original on January 6, 2018. Retrieved January 7, 2018.
- ^ Blair, Chad (February 27, 2018). "Former Sen. Clayton Hee Is Running For Governor". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved February 28, 2018.
- ^ Blair, Chad (June 4, 2018). "Clayton Hee Withdraws From Hawaii Governor's Race". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved June 8, 2018.
- ^ a b "Ige's New Campaign Ad Features Endorsement From Mayor Kim". Big Island Video News. July 28, 2018. Retrieved November 28, 2021.
- ^ Blair, Chad (January 24, 2018). "Gabbard Shakes Up Governor's Race By Endorsing Hanabusa". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved November 28, 2021.
- ^ HNN Staff (March 27, 2018). "Former lieutenant governor endorses Ige challenger". Hawaii News Now. Retrieved November 28, 2021.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r Eagle, Nathan (July 11, 2018). "Why Union Support Matters In The Hawaii Governor's Racev". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved November 28, 2021.
- ^ Merriman River Group
- ^ a b Mason-Dixon
- ^ QMark Research (D-Hanabusa)
- ^ QMark Research (D-Hanabusa)
- ^ Merriman River Group
- ^ a b c d e f g Mason-Dixon
- ^ a b c d e f g h "Primary Election 2018 -State of Hawaii – Statewide" (PDF). Hawaii Office of Elections. Retrieved August 12, 2018.
- ^ "Kauai Mayor Bernard Carvalho Jr. to run for lieutenant governor". KHON 2. October 26, 2017. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
- ^ a b "Sens. Green, Espero announce runs for lieutenant governor in 2018". Hawaii News Now. September 1, 2017. Retrieved September 1, 2017.
- ^ Cook Lauer, Nancy (June 13, 2017). "3 show interest in Green's seat as senator eyes lieutenant gov bid". Hawaii Tribune-Herald. Archived from the original on August 23, 2017. Retrieved August 22, 2017.
- ^ "Kim Coco Iwamoto announces bid for Lieutenant Governor". Island News KITV 4. November 5, 2017. Archived from the original on February 8, 2018. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
- ^ "Maui Mayor Arakawa says he plans to run for lieutenant governor". Hawaii News Now. May 26, 2017. Retrieved November 5, 2017.
- ^ Pignataro, Anthony (April 3, 2018). "Maui Mayor Alan Arakawa to hold $1,000/person fundraiser at swanky Waikiki restaurant". MauiTime. Retrieved April 15, 2018.
- ^ Cocke, Sophie (June 13, 2018). "Local 5 endorses Kim Coco Iwamoto for lieutenant governor". Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved November 28, 2021.
- ^ Foley, Daniel (March 30, 2018). "Campaign Corner: Kim Coco Iwamoto The Only True Progressive LG Candidate". Honolulu Civil Beat. Honolulu Civil Beat. Retrieved December 29, 2022.
- ^ "UHPA Endorses Jill Tokuda for Lt. Governor".
- ^ Merriman River Group
- ^ Merriman River Group
- ^ a b Daverta, Jobeth (January 21, 2018). "Hawaii minority leader Rep. Andria Tupola enters gubernatorial race". Hawaii News Now. Retrieved January 26, 2018.
- ^ Dible, Max (April 14, 2018). "Republican candidates for state office stump in Kona". West Hawaii Today.
- ^ "The Hawaii Republican Party has a new chair". Retrieved April 5, 2018.
- ^ Nagaoka, Ashley (May 12, 2017). "McDermott touts leadership, officialy [sic] enters 2018 race for governor". Hawaii News Now. Retrieved May 13, 2017.
- ^ Dayton, Kevin (August 29, 2017). "Rep. McDermott withdraws from governor's race". Honolulu Star-Advertiser. Retrieved August 30, 2017.
- ^ Beers, Axel (August 2, 2018). "MauiTime endorses Andria Tupola for governor (Republican) in 2018 Primary Election". Maui Time.
- ^ Merriman River Group
- ^ Mason-Dixon
- ^ Merriman River Group
- ^ "2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
- ^ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball – 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
- ^ "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
- ^ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News.
- ^ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
- ^ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Archived from the original on October 21, 2018. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
- ^ Full debate
- ^ Merriman River Group
- ^ a b c d e f Mason-Dixon
- ^ "General Election 2018 Final Summary Report" (PDF). State of Hawaii. November 6, 2018. Retrieved December 20, 2018.
- ^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 18, 2024.
External links
[edit]Official campaign websites
- David Ige (D) for Governor (archived)
- Terrence Teruya (NP) for Governor (archived)
- Andria Tupola (R) for Governor (archived)
Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites
- Josh Green (D) for Lieutenant Governor (archived)
- Marissa Kerns (R) for Lieutenant Governor (archived)