2018 Arkansas gubernatorial election

2018 Arkansas gubernatorial election
	Hutchinson: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% ; Henderson: 40-50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90%; Tie: 40–50% 50%
Governor before election; Asa Hutchinson; Republican	Elected Governor ; Asa Hutchinson; Republican

The 2018 Arkansas gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the governor of Arkansas, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican governor Asa Hutchinson won re-election to a second term, winning by more than 33 percentage points and carrying all but seven counties, marking the largest winning margin of any Republican gubernatorial candidate in Arkansas history.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Asa Hutchinson, incumbent governor^[1]^[2]
Jan Morgan, gun range owner^[3]^[4]

Declined

Tim Griffin, lieutenant governor and former U.S. representative (running for re-election)^[5]^[6]
Leslie Rutledge, attorney general (running for re-election)^[1]
John Thurston, land commissioner (running for Secretary of State)^[1]

Endorsements

Asa Hutchinson

Federal officials

Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States^[7]

Organizations

National Rifle Association of America^[8]

Newspapers

Arkansas Democrat-Gazette^[9]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Asa Hutchinson	Jan Morgan	Undecided
Hendrix College	April 17–19, 2018	676	± 3.8%	58%	31%	12%

Results

Republican primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Asa Hutchinson (incumbent)	145,251	69.7
	Republican	Jan Morgan	63,009	30.3
Total votes			208,260	100.0

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Jared Henderson, former Arkansas executive director of Teach For America^[10]
Leticia Sanders, hairdresser^[11]

Declined

Keith Ingram, Minority Leader of the Arkansas Senate^[1]
Jay Martin, former Majority Leader of the Arkansas House of Representatives^[12]^[13]
Kevin Smith, Mayor of Helena-West Helena, Arkansas and former Majority Whip of the Arkansas Senate. Former Democratic candidate in 1996 United States Senate election in Arkansas.

Results

Democratic primary results
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jared Henderson	68,340	63.4
	Democratic	Leticia Sanders	39,382	36.6
Total votes			107,722	100.0

Independents

Candidates

Declined

Bobby Bones, radio host^[14]^[15]

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

Mark West (Libertarian), pastor and nominee for AR-01 in 2016^[16]^[17]

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[18]	Safe R	October 26, 2018
The Washington Post^[19]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight^[20]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report^[21]	Safe R	November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[22]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics^[23]	Safe R	November 4, 2018
Daily Kos^[24]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
Fox News^[25]^[a]	Likely R	November 5, 2018
Politico^[26]	Safe R	November 5, 2018
Governing^[27]	Safe R	November 5, 2018

Notes

^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Debates

Dates	Location	Hutchinson	Henderson	West	Link
September 12, 2018	Little Rock, Arkansas	Didn't participate	Participant	Participant	Full debate - YouTube
October 12, 2018	Conway, Arkansas	Participant	Participant	Participant	Full debate - C-SPAN

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Asa Hutchinson (R)	Jared Henderson (D)	Mark West (L)	Other	Undecided
University of Arkansas	October 1–28, 2018	618	± 3.9%	59%	35%	–	6%	–
Hendrix College	October 18–19, 2018	528	± 4.3%	60%	24%	5%	–	11%
Hendrix College	September 5–7, 2018	1,701	± 2.4%	60%	25%	6%	–	9%
Mason-Dixon	March 21–24, 2018	625	± 4.0%	63%	24%	–	–	13%

Results

2018 Arkansas gubernatorial election^[28]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Asa Hutchinson (incumbent)	582,406	65.33%	+9.89%
	Democratic	Jared Henderson	283,218	31.77%	−9.72%
	Libertarian	Mark West	25,885	2.90%	+0.98%
Total votes			891,509	100.00%	N/A
	Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Ashley (Largest city: Crossett)
Bradley (largest city: Warren)
Clark (largest city: Arkadelphia)
Dallas (Largest city: Fordyce)
Desha (largest city: Dumas)
Drew (Largest city: Monticello)
Jackson (largest city: Newport)
Lafayette (Largest city: Stamps)
Lincoln (largest city: Star City)
Little River (largest city: Ashdown)
Mississippi (largest city: Osceola)
Monroe (largest city: Clarendon)
Nevada (Largest city: Prescott)
Ouachita (Largest city: Camden)
Pike (Largest city: Glenwood)
Woodruff (largest city: Augusta)

By congressional district

Hutchinson won all 4 congressional districts.^[29]

District	Hutchinson	Henderson	Representative
1st	69%	27%	Rick Crawford
2nd	59%	39%	French Hill
3rd	66%	31%	Steve Womack
4th	69%	28%	Bruce Westerman

References

^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Wickline, Michael R. (January 3, 2017). "Arkansas governor to hold fundraiser for term 2; re-election bid not yet formally announced". Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Retrieved January 3, 2017.
^ Wickline, Michael R. (May 17, 2017). "Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson to pursue second term". Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Retrieved May 18, 2017.
^ Lanning, Curt (October 3, 2017). "Gov. Hutchinson May Have a GOP Challenger". KNWA-TV. Retrieved October 5, 2017.
^ "Republican Jan Morgan Announces Run for Arkansas Governor". U.S. News & World Report. January 1, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2018.
^ Ramsey, David (April 18, 2016). "Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin "opposes Obamacare" (duh), dodges questions on "Arkansas Works"". Arkansas Times. Retrieved July 13, 2016.
^ DeMillo, Andrew (July 11, 2016). "Lt. Gov. Griffin says he's seeking re-election". Log Cabin Democrat. Archived from the original on July 13, 2016. Retrieved July 13, 2016.
^ Donald J. Trump. ".@AsaHutchinson, the great Governor of Arkansas, is in a primary tomorrow. He has done an incredible job with a focus on lower taxes, border security, and crime prevention. Asa loves our military and our veterans. I fully endorse Asa for Governor!". Twitter.
^ "NRA Endorses Governor Asa Hutchinson In Re-Election Bid". 5newsonline.com. September 20, 2018. Archived from the original on August 14, 2020.
^ "EDITORIAL: For Asa Hutchinson". Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. October 23, 2018.
^ Brock, Roby (December 12, 2017). "Jared Henderson to run as Democratic candidate for Governor". Talk Business & Politics. Retrieved December 12, 2017.
^ "Meet Jan Morgan, GOP Candidate For Arkansas Governor". KFSM. March 27, 2018. Retrieved April 8, 2018.
^ Brock, Roby (November 28, 2017). "Former State Rep. Jay Martin eyeing run for governor on Democratic ticket". Talk Business & Politics. Retrieved November 29, 2017.
^ "Martin says time is not right to run for Arkansas governor's office". Talk Business & Politics. December 1, 2017. Retrieved December 12, 2017.
^ "Radio host Bobby Bones considering run for Ark. governor". THV11 Digital, KTHV. January 3, 2017. Archived from the original on January 4, 2017. Retrieved January 3, 2017.
^ Taha, Nada (March 14, 2017). "Bobby Makes Official Statement On Political Plans". The Bobby Bones Show. Archived from the original on March 20, 2017. Retrieved May 18, 2017.
^ Wickline, Michael R. (June 28, 2017). "Libertarian to run for governor's post". Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Retrieved June 28, 2017.
^ Lampe, Ellen (June 27, 2017). "Libertarian Party Candidate Announces Run for AR Governor". ArkansasMatters.com. Retrieved June 28, 2017.
^ "2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
^ "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
^ "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 17, 2018.
^ "2018 Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 15, 2017.
^ "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
^ "2018 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
^ "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News. August 2, 2023.
^ "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.
^ "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Archived from the original on October 21, 2018. Retrieved July 18, 2018.
^ "2018 Arkansas Gubernatorial election". Retrieved January 6, 2022.
^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 19, 2024.

External links

Candidates at Vote Smart
Candidates at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

[26] The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

[arkonline-1] Wickline, Michael R. (January 3, 2017). "Arkansas governor to hold fundraiser for term 2; re-election bid not yet formally announced". Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Retrieved January 3, 2017.

[2] Wickline, Michael R. (May 17, 2017). "Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson to pursue second term". Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Retrieved May 18, 2017.

[3] Lanning, Curt (October 3, 2017). "Gov. Hutchinson May Have a GOP Challenger". KNWA-TV. Retrieved October 5, 2017.

[4] "Republican Jan Morgan Announces Run for Arkansas Governor". U.S. News & World Report. January 1, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2018.

[5] Ramsey, David (April 18, 2016). "Lt. Gov. Tim Griffin "opposes Obamacare" (duh), dodges questions on "Arkansas Works"". Arkansas Times. Retrieved July 13, 2016.

[6] DeMillo, Andrew (July 11, 2016). "Lt. Gov. Griffin says he's seeking re-election". Log Cabin Democrat. Archived from the original on July 13, 2016. Retrieved July 13, 2016.

[7] Donald J. Trump. ".@AsaHutchinson, the great Governor of Arkansas, is in a primary tomorrow. He has done an incredible job with a focus on lower taxes, border security, and crime prevention. Asa loves our military and our veterans. I fully endorse Asa for Governor!". Twitter.

[8] "NRA Endorses Governor Asa Hutchinson In Re-Election Bid". 5newsonline.com. September 20, 2018. Archived from the original on August 14, 2020.

[9] "EDITORIAL: For Asa Hutchinson". Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. October 23, 2018.

[10] Brock, Roby (December 12, 2017). "Jared Henderson to run as Democratic candidate for Governor". Talk Business & Politics. Retrieved December 12, 2017.

[11] "Meet Jan Morgan, GOP Candidate For Arkansas Governor". KFSM. March 27, 2018. Retrieved April 8, 2018.

[12] Brock, Roby (November 28, 2017). "Former State Rep. Jay Martin eyeing run for governor on Democratic ticket". Talk Business & Politics. Retrieved November 29, 2017.

[13] "Martin says time is not right to run for Arkansas governor's office". Talk Business & Politics. December 1, 2017. Retrieved December 12, 2017.

[14] "Radio host Bobby Bones considering run for Ark. governor". THV11 Digital, KTHV. January 3, 2017. Archived from the original on January 4, 2017. Retrieved January 3, 2017.

[15] Taha, Nada (March 14, 2017). "Bobby Makes Official Statement On Political Plans". The Bobby Bones Show. Archived from the original on March 20, 2017. Retrieved May 18, 2017.

[16] Wickline, Michael R. (June 28, 2017). "Libertarian to run for governor's post". Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Retrieved June 28, 2017.

[17] Lampe, Ellen (June 27, 2017). "Libertarian Party Candidate Announces Run for AR Governor". ArkansasMatters.com. Retrieved June 28, 2017.

[18] "2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved April 10, 2021.

[19] "The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings". The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.

[20] "2018 Governor Forecast | FiveThirtyEight". FiveThirtyEight. October 17, 2018. Retrieved October 17, 2018.

[21] "2018 Gubernatorial Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved November 15, 2017.

[22] "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor". www.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved November 15, 2017.

[23] "2018 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.

[24] "2018 Governor Race Ratings". Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.

[25] "2018 Midterm Power Ranking". Fox News. August 2, 2023.

[27] "Politico Race Ratings". Politico.

[28] "2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups". www.governing.com. Archived from the original on October 21, 2018. Retrieved July 18, 2018.

[29] "2018 Arkansas Gubernatorial election". Retrieved January 6, 2022.

[30] "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 19, 2024.

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v t e Elections in Arkansas
General	1844 1846 1847 1848 1849 1850 1851 1852 1853 1854 1855 1856 1857 1858 1859 1860 1861 1862 1863 1864 1865 1866 1867 1868 1869 1870 1871 1872 1873 1874 1875 1876 1877 1878 1879 1880 1881 1882 1883 1884 1885 1886 1887 1888 1889 1890 1891 1892 1893 1894 1895 1896 1897 1898 1900 1902 1903 1904 1906 1907 1908 1910 1912 1913 1914 1916 1917 1918 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1926 1927 1928 1930 1932 1933 1934 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1942 1943 1944 1946 1949 1950 1952 1953 1954 1956 1958 1959 1960 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1972 1973 1974 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
Governor	1836 1840 1844 1848 1849 S 1852 1856 1860 1862 1864 U 1868 1872 1874 1876 1878 1880 1882 1884 1886 1888 1890 1892 1894 1896 1898 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1913 S 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022
U.S. President	1836 1840 1844 1848 1852 1856 1860 1864 1868 1872 1876 1880 1884 1888 1892 1896 1900 1904 1908 1912 1916 1920 1924 1928 1932 1936 1940 1944 1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
U.S. Senate	Class 2: 1833 1839–40 1848 S 1853 1859 1868 S 1870 1876 1883 1885 S 1889 1895 1901 1907 1913 S 1913 1918 1924 1930 1936 1937 S 1942 1948 1954 1960 1966 1972 1978 1984 1990 1996 2002 2008 2014 2020 Class 3: 1837 1843 1845 S 1849 1855 1861 1867 1873 1879 1881 S 1885 1891 1897 1903 1909 1914 1916 S 1920 1926 1932 S 1932 1938 1944 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 2010 2016 2022
U.S. House	1837 1838 1840 1842 1844 1846 1848 1851 1853 1854 1856 1858 1860 1868 1870 1872 1874 1876 1878 1880 1882 1884 1886 1888 1890 1892 1894 1896 1898 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 (4th S) 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 (6th S) 1962 1964 1966 (4th S) 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
'S,' denotes special election; 'U,' denotes election under Federal (Union) military occupation See also: Political party strength in Arkansas

v t e (2017 ←) 2018 United States elections (→ 2019)
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U.S. House (election ratings)	Alabama Alaska American Samoa Arizona 8th sp Arkansas California 10th 21st 39th Colorado Connecticut Delaware District of Columbia Florida Georgia Guam Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan 13th sp Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York 14th 25th sp North Carolina 9th North Dakota Northern Mariana Islands Ohio 12th sp Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania 7th and 15th sp 18th sp Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas 27th sp Utah Vermont Virginia 10th U.S. Virgin Islands Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
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Local	Anchorage, AK Cook County, IL Cuyahoga County, OH Executive Council El Paso, TX El Paso County, CO Los Angeles County, CA Orange County, CA San Diego, CA San Francisco, CA
Statewide	Alabama Alaska American Samoa Arizona Arkansas California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Florida Georgia Guam Hawaii Idaho Illinois Indiana Iowa Kansas Kentucky Louisiana Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota Mississippi Missouri Montana Nebraska Nevada New Hampshire New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina North Dakota Northern Mariana Islands Ohio Oklahoma Oregon Pennsylvania Rhode Island South Carolina South Dakota Tennessee Texas U.S. Virgin Islands Utah Vermont Virginia Washington West Virginia Wisconsin Wyoming
Related	Russian interference in the 2018 United States elections

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Independents

Candidates

Declined

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

General election

Predictions

Debates

Polling

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

See also

References

External links