2014 United States Senate election in Oregon

2014 United States Senate election in Oregon
	County results; Merkley: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% ; Wehby: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%
U.S. senator before election; Jeff Merkley; Democratic	Elected U.S. Senator ; Jeff Merkley; Democratic

The 2014 United States Senate election in Oregon took place on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Oregon, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Oregon, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeff Merkley successfully ran for reelection to a second term. Despite it being a national midterm Republican wave, this was actually a stronger Senate election for him in terms of margin of victory, winning by almost 20%.^[1] Primary elections were held on May 20, 2014. Merkley easily won the Democratic nomination, while the Republicans nominated pediatric neurosurgeon Monica Wehby. Initially, the race was considered potentially competitive, but Wehby's campaign began to collapse after she faced multiple allegations of stalking and harassment from former partners, and was found to have plagiarized portions of her campaign website.^[2]

Background

Democrat Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives, had narrowly defeated two-term Republican incumbent Gordon H. Smith with 49% of the vote in 2008.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

William Bryk, attorney from New York and perennial candidate^[3]
Pavel Goberman, fitness instructor and perennial candidate^[4]
Jeff Merkley, incumbent senator^[1]

Results

Democratic primary results^[5]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jeff Merkley (incumbent)	277,120	92.04%
	Democratic	William Bryk	11,330	3.76%
	Democratic	Pavel Goberman	8,436	2.81%
		write-ins	4,194	1.39%
Total votes			301,080	100.00%

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Mark Callahan, information technology consultant and perennial candidate^[6]
Jason Conger, state representative^[7]
Tim Crawley, attorney^[8]
Jo Rae Perkins, former Chairwoman of the Linn County Republican Party and candidate for Mayor of Albany in 2010^[6]
Monica Wehby, pediatric neurosurgeon^[9]

Withdrew

Sam Carpenter, businessman^[10]

Declined

Bruce Hanna, state representative^[11]
Rick Miller, owner and founder of Avamere^[12]
Gordon H. Smith, former U.S. Senator^[13]
Greg Walden, U.S. Representative and Chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee^[14]

Endorsements

Jason Conger

Individuals

Rick Santorum, former U.S. Representative and former U.S. Senator (R-PA) and candidate for president in 2012^[15]

Organizations

Oregon Right to Life^[16]

Newspapers

Statesman Journal^[17]
Willamette Week^[16]

Monica Wehby

Individuals

Ben Carson, retired surgeon and conservative activist^{[citation needed]}
Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives^[18]
Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts and nominee for President in 2012^[19]

Newspapers

The Oregonian^[20]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Mark Callahan	Jason Conger	Tim Crawley	Jo Rae Perkins	Monica Wehby	Undecided
Benenson Strategy Group^[21]	April 14–17, 2014	410	± ?	—	24%	—	—	22%	55%
Wenzel Strategies^[22]	May 1–4, 2014	607	± ?	4%	22%	3%	3%	43%	26%
Public Opinion Strategies^[23]	May 12–13, 2014	500	± 4.38%	2%	24%	2%	2%	41%	26%

Results

Republican primary results^[5]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Monica Wehby	134,627	49.96%
	Republican	Jason Conger	101,401	37.63%
	Republican	Mark Callahan	18,220	6.76%
	Republican	Jo Rae Perkins	7,602	2.82%
	Republican	Tim Crawley	6,566	2.44%
	Write-in		1,027	0.39%
Total votes			266,438	100.00%

Independents

The filing deadline for independent candidates is August 26, 2014. In order to qualify, a candidate must submit 17,893 signatures of registered voters or obtain signatures from at least 1,000 electors at a valid assembly of electors.^[24]

Candidates

Declared

Karl King, massage therapist^[25]

General election

Debates

Complete video of debate, October 14, 2014

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[26]	Likely D	November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[27]	Likely D	November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report^[28]	Likely D	November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics^[29]	Likely D	November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Merkley (D)	Monica Wehby (R)	Other	Undecided
Harper Polling^[30]	April 1–2, 2014	670	± 3.91%	46%	34%	—	20%
Benenson Strategy Group^[21]	April 14–17, 2014	600	± 4%	52%	32%	—	16%
Rasmussen Reports^[31]	May 21–22, 2014	750	± 4%	47%	37%	5%	11%
Public Policy Polling^[32]	May 22–27, 2014	956	± 3.2%	50%	36%	—	15%
The Tarrance Group*^[33]	June 1–3, 2014	615	± 4.1%	41%	39%	9%^[34]	11%
SurveyUSA^[35]	June 5–9, 2014	560	± 4.2%	50%	32%	9%	9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov^[36]	July 5–24, 2014	2,088	± 2.6%	53%	39%	1%	7%
SurveyUSA^[37]	August 1–5, 2014	564	± 4.2%	52%	33%	7%	9%
Moore Information^^[38]	August 5–9, 2014	500	± 4%	47%	38%	—	16%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov^[39]	August 18 – September 2, 2014	1,541	± 4%	51%	39%	1%	9%
Rasmussen Reports^[31]	September 2–3, 2014	750	± 4%	48%	35%	5%	12%
Polling Company/WomanTrend^[40]	September 9–11, 2014	600	± 4%	42%	34%	7%^[41]	14%
SurveyUSA^[42]	September 22–24, 2014	568	± 4.2%	52%	32%	8%	8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov^[43]	September 20 – October 1, 2014	1,508	± 3%	52%	39%	1%	8%
DHM Research^[44]	October 2014	?	± 4.3%	47%	26%	6%	19%
SurveyUSA^[45]	October 16–19, 2014	561	± 4.2%	53%	32%	7%	8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov^[43]	October 16–23, 2014	1,421	± 4%	51%	39%	1%	9%
SurveyUSA^[46]	October 23–27, 2014	552	± 4.3%	53%	32%	8%	6%
Elway Research^[47]	October 26–27, 2014	403	± 5%	49%	30%	3%^[48]	18%

^ Internal poll for Dennis Richardson campaign
* Internal poll for Monica Wehby campaign

Hypothetical polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Merkley (D)	Allen Alley (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[49]	June 21–24, 2012	686	± 3.7%	43%	37%	—	20%
Public Policy Polling^[50]	December 3–5, 2012	614	± 4%	53%	36%	—	12%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Merkley (D)	Jason Atkinson (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[49]	June 21–24, 2012	686	± 3.7%	43%	34%	—	23%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Merkley (D)	Jason Conger (R)	Other	Undecided
Harper Polling^[30]	April 1–2, 2014	670	± 3.91%	47%	40%	—	12%
Benenson Strategy Group^[21]	April 14–17, 2014	600	± 4%	50%	34%	—	16%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Merkley (D)	Bruce Hanna (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[49]	June 21–24, 2012	686	± 3.7%	43%	35%	—	23%
Public Policy Polling^[50]	December 3–5, 2012	614	± 4%	52%	34%	—	14%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Merkley (D)	Gordon Smith (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[50]	December 3–5, 2012	614	± 4%	47%	43%	—	10%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Merkley (D)	Bruce Starr (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[50]	December 3–5, 2012	614	± 4%	52%	32%	—	16%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Jeff Merkley (D)	Greg Walden (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling^[49]	June 21–24, 2012	686	± 3.7%	40%	42%	—	18%
Public Policy Polling^[50]	December 3–5, 2012	614	± 4%	47%	42%	—	11%

Results

United States Senate election in Oregon, 2014^[51]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	Jeff Merkley (incumbent)	814,537	55.73%	+6.83%
	Republican	Monica Wehby	538,847	36.87%	−8.68%
	Libertarian	Mike Monchalin	44,916	3.07%	N/A
	Pacific Green	Christina Jean Lugo	32,434	2.22%	N/A
	Constitution	James E. Leuenberger	24,212	1.66%	−3.58%
	n/a	Write-ins	6,672	0.45%	N/A
Total votes			1,461,618	100.00%	N/A
	Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Clackamas (largest city: Lake Oswego)
Coos (largest city: Coos Bay)
Deschutes (largest city: Bend)
Jackson (largest city: Medford)
Marion (largest city: Salem)
Tillamook (largest city: Tillamook)
Polk (largest city: Salem)
Yamhill (largest city: McMinnville)

References

^ ^a ^b Pope, Charles (April 16, 2012). "Oregon's Jeff Merkley raises money early to fight Senate opponents in 2014". The Oregonian. Retrieved December 12, 2012.
^ Staver, Anna (November 4, 2014). "Sen. Jeff Merkley decisively defeats Monica Wehby". Statesman Journal.
^ Jaquiss, Nigel (March 6, 2014). "New Yorker Files to Run Against Merkley In May Primary". Willamette Week. Retrieved March 12, 2014.
^ Joanna Evoniuk and Scott Reynolds (September 13, 2013). "Four Challenge Merkley's U.S. Senate Seat For 2014 Election". Lane Today. Retrieved October 11, 2013.
^ ^a ^b "May 20, 2014 Primary Election Abstract of Votes: United States Senator". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved June 26, 2014.
^ ^a ^b McInally, Mike (August 16, 2013). "Jo Rae Perkins of Albany announces bid for U.S. Senate". Albany Democrat-Herald. Retrieved August 19, 2013.
^ Mapes, Jeff (October 10, 2013). "Jason Conger sets U.S. Senate announcement for Tuesday in Oregon City and Bend". Oregon Live. Retrieved October 14, 2013.
^ Mapes, Jeff (November 4, 2013). "GOP hits Jeff Merkley on Obamacare as new Republican enters Senate race: Oregon politics today". The Oregonian. Retrieved November 4, 2013.
^ Gaston, Christian (October 29, 2013). "Portland doctor Monica Wehby will seek to unseat Democrat Jeff Merkley". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 30, 2013.
^ Mapes, Jeff (November 4, 2013). "Sam Carpenter drops out of GOP primary for U.S. Senate race in favor of Jason Conger". The Oregonian. Retrieved November 4, 2013.
^ "Bruce Hanna decides not to run for re-election -- or, for now, another seat: Oregon politics today". Oregon Live. September 20, 2013.
^ Mapes, Jeff (November 29, 2012). "Is Senate GOP trying to recruit a challenger to Jeff Merkley through news media?". The Oregonian. Retrieved December 12, 2012.
^ "Gordon Smith finds happiness in private sector, has no plans to seek office". Oregon Live. August 6, 2012.
^ "Republicans Pick Walden as New NRCC Chairman". Roll Call. November 14, 2012.
^ "Rick Santorum endorses Jason Conger, praising his opposition to gay marriage and abortion". Oregon Live. May 14, 2014. Retrieved May 15, 2014.
^ ^a ^b "U.S. Senate Jason Conger Republican Primary". Willamette Week. April 30, 2014. Archived from the original on May 2, 2014. Retrieved May 2, 2014.
^ "Conger best Republican to take on Merkley". Statesman Journal. May 10, 2014. Retrieved May 15, 2014.
^ "Newt Gingrich provides Monica Wehby with another out-of-state endorsement in Senate race". OregonLive.com. April 29, 2014. Retrieved July 26, 2014.
^ "Mitt Romney joins national GOP figures in endorsing Monica Wehby in Oregon Senate race". OregonLive.com. Retrieved July 26, 2014.
^ "Oregon's Republicans should vote for Monica Wehby: Editorial endorsement". April 26, 2014. Retrieved May 2, 2014.
^ ^a ^b ^c Benenson Strategy Group
^ Wenzel Strategies
^ Public Opinion Strategies
^ "Ballot access requirements for political candidates in Oregon". Ballotpedia. Retrieved March 12, 2014.
^ Reynolds, Scott (January 31, 2014). "U.S. Senate Candidate Profile: Karl King". Lane Today. Retrieved March 12, 2014.
^ "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ "2014 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
^ ^a ^b Harper Polling
^ ^a ^b Rasmussen Reports
^ Public Policy Polling
^ The Tarrance Group*
^ Karl King (I) 5%, Mike Montchalin (L) 4%
^ SurveyUSA
^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
^ SurveyUSA
^ Moore Information^
^ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
^ Polling Company/WomanTrend
^ Christina Lugo (G) 4%, Mike Montchalin (L) 3%
^ SurveyUSA
^ ^a ^b CBS News/NYT/YouGov
^ DHM Research
^ SurveyUSA
^ SurveyUSA
^ Elway Research
^ Christina Lugo (G) 1%, Mike Montchalin (L) 2%
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d Public Policy Polling
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e Public Policy Polling
^ "November 4, 2014, General Election, Official Abstract of Votes: US Senator". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2014.

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

[running-1] Pope, Charles (April 16, 2012). "Oregon's Jeff Merkley raises money early to fight Senate opponents in 2014". The Oregonian. Retrieved December 12, 2012.

[2] Staver, Anna (November 4, 2014). "Sen. Jeff Merkley decisively defeats Monica Wehby". Statesman Journal.

[3] Jaquiss, Nigel (March 6, 2014). "New Yorker Files to Run Against Merkley In May Primary". Willamette Week. Retrieved March 12, 2014.

[4] Joanna Evoniuk and Scott Reynolds (September 13, 2013). "Four Challenge Merkley's U.S. Senate Seat For 2014 Election". Lane Today. Retrieved October 11, 2013.

[officialresults-5] "May 20, 2014 Primary Election Abstract of Votes: United States Senator". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved June 26, 2014.

[perkins-6] McInally, Mike (August 16, 2013). "Jo Rae Perkins of Albany announces bid for U.S. Senate". Albany Democrat-Herald. Retrieved August 19, 2013.

[7] Mapes, Jeff (October 10, 2013). "Jason Conger sets U.S. Senate announcement for Tuesday in Oregon City and Bend". Oregon Live. Retrieved October 14, 2013.

[8] Mapes, Jeff (November 4, 2013). "GOP hits Jeff Merkley on Obamacare as new Republican enters Senate race: Oregon politics today". The Oregonian. Retrieved November 4, 2013.

[9] Gaston, Christian (October 29, 2013). "Portland doctor Monica Wehby will seek to unseat Democrat Jeff Merkley". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 30, 2013.

[10] Mapes, Jeff (November 4, 2013). "Sam Carpenter drops out of GOP primary for U.S. Senate race in favor of Jason Conger". The Oregonian. Retrieved November 4, 2013.

[11] "Bruce Hanna decides not to run for re-election -- or, for now, another seat: Oregon politics today". Oregon Live. September 20, 2013.

[12] Mapes, Jeff (November 29, 2012). "Is Senate GOP trying to recruit a challenger to Jeff Merkley through news media?". The Oregonian. Retrieved December 12, 2012.

[13] "Gordon Smith finds happiness in private sector, has no plans to seek office". Oregon Live. August 6, 2012.

[14] "Republicans Pick Walden as New NRCC Chairman". Roll Call. November 14, 2012.

[15] "Rick Santorum endorses Jason Conger, praising his opposition to gay marriage and abortion". Oregon Live. May 14, 2014. Retrieved May 15, 2014.

[WW-16] "U.S. Senate Jason Conger Republican Primary". Willamette Week. April 30, 2014. Archived from the original on May 2, 2014. Retrieved May 2, 2014.

[17] "Conger best Republican to take on Merkley". Statesman Journal. May 10, 2014. Retrieved May 15, 2014.

[18] "Newt Gingrich provides Monica Wehby with another out-of-state endorsement in Senate race". OregonLive.com. April 29, 2014. Retrieved July 26, 2014.

[19] "Mitt Romney joins national GOP figures in endorsing Monica Wehby in Oregon Senate race". OregonLive.com. Retrieved July 26, 2014.

[oregonian-20] "Oregon's Republicans should vote for Monica Wehby: Editorial endorsement". April 26, 2014. Retrieved May 2, 2014.

[Benenson_Strategy_Group-21] Benenson Strategy Group

[22] Wenzel Strategies

[23] Public Opinion Strategies

[24] "Ballot access requirements for political candidates in Oregon". Ballotpedia. Retrieved March 12, 2014.

[25] Reynolds, Scott (January 31, 2014). "U.S. Senate Candidate Profile: Karl King". Lane Today. Retrieved March 12, 2014.

[26] "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[27] "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[28] "2014 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[29] "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.

[Harper_Polling-30] Harper Polling

[Rasmussen_Reports-31] Rasmussen Reports

[32] Public Policy Polling

[33] The Tarrance Group*

[34] Karl King (I) 5%, Mike Montchalin (L) 4%

[35] SurveyUSA

[36] CBS News/NYT/YouGov

[37] SurveyUSA

[38] Moore Information^

[39] CBS News/NYT/YouGov

[40] Polling Company/WomanTrend

[41] Christina Lugo (G) 4%, Mike Montchalin (L) 3%

[42] SurveyUSA

[CBS_News/NYT/YouGov-43] CBS News/NYT/YouGov

[44] DHM Research

[45] SurveyUSA

[46] SurveyUSA

[47] Elway Research

[48] Christina Lugo (G) 1%, Mike Montchalin (L) 2%

[Public_Policy_Polling-49] Public Policy Polling

[publicpolicypolling.com-50] Public Policy Polling

[51] "November 4, 2014, General Election, Official Abstract of Votes: US Senator". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2014.

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Background

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Polling

Results

Independents

Candidates

Declared

General election

Debates

Predictions

Polling

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

See also

References

External links