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2016 United States Senate election in Ohio

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2016 United States Senate election in Ohio
← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →
 
Nominee Rob Portman Ted Strickland
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 3,118,567 1,996,908
Percentage 58.03% 37.16%
Portman:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Strickland:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
U.S. senator before election

Rob Portman
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Rob Portman
Republican

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The 2016 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Ohio, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The close of registration for electors in the primary election was December 16, 2015, and the primary election took place on March 15, 2016.[1] Incumbent Republican U.S. senator Rob Portman faced former Democratic governor Ted Strickland. Green Party nominee Joseph DeMare was also on the ballot along with two other independent candidates and one officially declared write-in candidate.

Initially, the seat was viewed by many to be a potential Democratic pickup, with some early polls showing Strickland ahead, but Portman attained a lead in the summer which grew through the duration of the campaign, and ultimately won re-election to a second term in a landslide, winning 58% of the vote. His vote total of 3,118,567 is the second largest in the state's history, falling 346,084 votes short of George Voinovich's record set in his 2004 re-election.

Republican primary

[edit]

Republican senator Rob Portman ran for re-election to a second term in office.[2] He considered running for president in 2016,[3][4][5] but ruled out running for two offices at the same time, even though Ohio law does allow it.[3][6] He ultimately declined to run for president.[2][7] The National Organization for Marriage and other socially conservative groups, unhappy with Portman's public backing for same-sex marriage, pledged to back a primary challenger. Tea Party groups, who heavily backed Portman in 2010, said that they were unlikely to do the same if he runs for re-election.[8][9]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]
  • Melissa Strzala, Tea Party activist (failed to gather enough valid signatures)[11][12]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Don Elijah Eckhart

Organizations

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Don Elijah
Eckhart 		Rob
Portman 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[15] March 4–6, 2016 638 ± 3.9% 7% 60% 33%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ken
Blackwell 		Rob
Portman 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[16] June 4–7, 2015 411 ± 4.8% 24% 57% 20%

Results

[edit]
Results by county
  Portman
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results[17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Rob Portman (incumbent) 1,336,686 82.16%
Republican Don Elijah Eckhart 290,268 17.84%
Total votes 1,626,954 100.00%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
P.G. Sittenfeld

U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials

U.S. Governors

U.S. representatives (former)

Ohio state representatives (current)

Ohio state representatives (former)

Mayors

City Council members

  • Chris Seelbach, Cincinnati City Councilman[35]
  • Yvette Simpson, Cincinnati City Councilwoman[35]
  • Wendell Young, Cincinnati City Councilman[35]

County officials

Notable individuals

Organizations

Newspapers

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Kelli
Prather 		P.G.
Sittenfeld 		Ted
Strickland 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[15] March 4–6, 2016 508 ± 4.4% 6% 16% 50% 28%
Public Policy Polling[45] January 12–14, 2016 1,138 ± ? 10% 10% 61% 18%
Public Policy Polling[16] June 4–7, 2015 360 ± 5.2% — 13% 65% 22%

Results

[edit]
Results by county
  Strickland
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Democratic primary results[17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ted Strickland 742,676 65.04%
Democratic P.G. Sittenfeld 254,232 22.26%
Democratic Kelli Prather 144,945 12.69%
Total votes 1,141,853 100.00%

Green primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Joe DeMare, factory worker and environmentalist[46]

Results

[edit]
Green primary results[17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Green Joe DeMare 3,123 100.00%
Total votes 3,123 100.00%

General election

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]
  • Rob Portman (R), incumbent senator
  • Ted Strickland (D), former governor of Ohio and former U.S. representative
  • Joe DeMare (G), factory worker and environmentalist
  • Scott Rupert (I), truck driver and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2012[47]
  • Tom Connors (I)
  • James Stahl (Write-in)

Endorsements

[edit]
Rob Portman

Presidents

U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials

Governors

U.S. senators (current and former)

U.S. representatives (current and former)

Statewide officials

Diplomats

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Ted Strickland

Presidents

Vice Presidents

U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Ohio state senators

Ohio state representatives (current)

Ohio state representatives (former)

Mayors

City Council members

Notable individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Debates

[edit]
Dates Location Portman Strickland Link
October 14, 2016 Youngstown, Ohio Participant Participant [113]
October 17, 2016 Columbus, Ohio Participant Participant [114]
October 20, 2016 Cleveland, Ohio Participant Participant [115]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[116] Lean R November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[117] Safe R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[118] Likely R November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[119] Safe R November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[120] Safe R November 7, 2016

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Rob
Portman (R) 		Ted
Strickland (D) 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey[121] November 1–7, 2016 2,860 ± 4.6% 57% 39% — 4%
SurveyMonkey[122] Oct 31–Nov 6, 2016 2,530 ± 4.6% 57% 39% — 4%
Emerson College[123] November 4–5, 2016 900 ± 3.2% 49% 28% 11% 12%
The Columbus Dispatch[124] Oct 27–Nov 5, 2016 1,151 ± 2.9% 58% 37% — 5%
CBS News/YouGov[125] November 2–4, 2016 1,189 ± 4.1% 52% 39% 3% 6%
SurveyMonkey[126] Oct 28–Nov 3, 2016 2,004 ± 4.6% 58% 39% — 3%
SurveyMonkey[127] Oct 27–Nov 2, 2016 1,728 ± 4.6% 57% 40% — 3%
Quinnipiac University[128] Oct 27–Nov 1, 2016 589 ± 4.0% 56% 38% — 6%
SurveyMonkey[129] Oct 26–Nov 1, 2016 1,586 ± 4.6% 57% 39% — 4%
SurveyMonkey[130] October 25–31, 2016 1,823 ± 4.6% 55% 40% — 5%
Emerson College[131] October 26–27, 2016 800 ± 3.4% 49% 35% 4% 12%
Suffolk University[132] October 17–19, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 46% 31% 6% 14%
Quinnipiac University[133] October 10–16, 2016 624 ± 3.9% 54% 41% 1% 4%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey[134] October 8–16, 2016 1,307 ± 0.5% 56% 39% — 5%
CNN/ORC[135] October 10–15, 2016 774 LV ± 3.5% 56% 40% — 2%
890 RV 55% 40% — 2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[136] October 10–12, 2016 724 LV ± 3.6% 55% 37% 3% 5%
1,007 RV ± 3.1% 54% 36% 3% 6%
Emerson College[137] October 10–12, 2016 600 ± 3.9% 47% 30% 6% 16%
Baldwin Wallace University[138] October 9–11, 2016 1,152 ± 3.0% 48% 36% — 16%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid[139] October 7–10, 2016 1,304 ± 3.0% 51% 37% — 12%
CBS News/YouGov[140] October 5–7, 2016 997 ± 3.9% 49% 38% 2% 10%
Public Policy Polling[141] October 5–6, 2016 782 ± 3.5% 51% 36% — 12%
Monmouth University[142] October 1–4, 2016 405 ± 4.9% 54% 39% 2% 5%
Quinnipiac University[143] Sept 27–Oct 2, 2016 497 ± 4.4% 55% 38% — 7%
Anzalone Liszt Grove Research[144] Sept 27–Oct 2, 2016 800 ± 4.0% 51% 39% 5% 5%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[145] September 22–23, 2016 850 ± 3.4% 44% 36% — 20%
TargetSmart/William & Mary[146] September 15–22, 2016 652 LV ± 3.4% 47% 32% 4% 17%
821 RV 44% 34% 4% 18%
FOX News[147] September 18–20, 2016 737 LV ± 3.5% 51% 37% 1% 10%
806 RV 50% 37% 1% 10%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps[148] September 10–19, 2016 400 ± 4.0% 51% 34% 4% 11%
Suffolk University[149] September 12–14, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 39% 31% 5% 23%
CNN/ORC[150] September 7–12, 2016 769 LV ± 3.0% 58% 37% — 5%
895 RV 56% 38% — 5%
Bloomberg/Selzer[151] September 9–12, 2016 802 ± 3.5% 53% 36% 3% 7%
Quinnipiac University[152] Aug 29–Sept 7, 2016 775 ± 3.5% 51% 40% 1% 8%
Public Policy Polling[153] August 26–27, 2016 1,134 ± 3.0% 48% 39% — 13%
Emerson College[154] August 25–27, 2016 800 ± 3.4% 40% 25% 10% 25%
Monmouth University[155] August 18–21, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 48% 40% 4% 8%
CBS News/YouGov[156] August 17–19, 2016 997 ± 3.9% 46% 39% 4% 11%
Quinnipiac University[157] July 30–August 7, 2016 812 ± 3.4% 49% 40% 1% 10%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[158] August 3–7, 2016 889 ± 3.3% 48% 43% 1% 8%
Public Policy Polling[159] July 22–24, 2016 1,334 ± 2.7% 43% 38% — 19%
Suffolk University[160] July 18–20, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 37% 33% 6% 23%
CBS News/YouGov[161] July 13–15, 2016 1,104 ± 3.5% 41% 40% 4% 14%
Quinnipiac University[162] June 30–July 11, 2016 955 ± 3.2% 47% 40% 1% 9%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[163] July 5–10, 2016 848 ± 3.4% 44% 44% 2% 10%
Public Policy Polling[164] June 22–23, 2016 708 ± 3.7% 40% 39% — 21%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps[165] June 11–20, 2016 300 ± 5.7% 40% 43% — 17%
Quinnipiac University[166] June 8–19, 2016 971 ± 3.1% 42% 42% 1% 11%
Public Policy Polling[167] June 8–9, 2016 781 ± 3.4% 46% 42% — 12%
Quinnipiac University[168] April 27–May 8, 2016 1,042 ± 3.0% 42% 43% 1% 14%
Public Policy Polling[169] April 26–27, 2016 799 ± 3.2% 38% 38% 1% 23%
Hart Research Associates[170] April 5–7, 2016 500 ± 3.2% 47% 45% — 8%
Public Policy Polling[15] March 4–6, 2016 1,248 ± 2.8% 40% 41% — 19%
Quinnipiac University[171] February 16–20, 2016 1,539 ± 2.5% 42% 44% — 14%
Baldwin Wallace University[172] February 11–20, 2016 825 ± 3.4% 44% 40% — 16%
Democracy Corps[173] October 24–28, 2015 400 ± 4.9% 47% 47% — 6%
Quinnipiac University[174] Sept 25–Oct 5, 2015 1,180 ± 2.9% 43% 46% 1% 8%
Harstad Strategic Research[175] September 10–16, 2015 813 ± 3.4% 43% 46% — 11%
Quinnipiac University[176] August 7–18, 2015 1,096 ± 3.0% 41% 44% 1% 10%
Quinnipiac University[177] June 4–15, 2015 1,191 ± 2.8% 40% 46% 1% 13%
Public Policy Polling[16] June 4–7, 2015 859 ± 3.3% 43% 41% — 15%
Quinnipiac University[178] March 17–28, 2015 1,077 ± 3.0% 39% 48% — 13%
Public Policy Polling (D-Ohio Democratic Party)[179] March 2–3, 2015 946 ± 3.2% 45% 45% — 10%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Rob
Portman (R) 		P.G.
Sittenfeld (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[15] March 4–6, 2016 1,248 ± 2.8% 42% 30% — 27%
Quinnipiac University[180] February 16–20, 2016 1,539 ± 2.5% 48% 29% 1% 22%
Baldwin Wallace University[172] February 11–20, 2016 825 ± 3.4% 51% 26% — 23%
Quinnipiac University[181] September 25 – October 5, 2015 1,180 ± 2.9% 49% 27% 1% 18%
Quinnipiac University[182] August 7–18, 2015 1,096 ± 3.0% 46% 25% 1% 22%
Quinnipiac University[183] June 4–15, 2015 1,191 ± 2.8% 49% 24% 1% 25%
Public Policy Polling[16] June 4–7, 2015 859 ± 3.3% 46% 28% — 26%
Quinnipiac University[178] March 17–28, 2015 1,077 ± 3.0% 47% 24% 1% 28%
Public Policy Polling[184]↑ March 2–3, 2015 946 ± 3.2% 50% 31% — 15%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ken
Blackwell (R) 		Ted
Strickland (D) 		Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling[16] June 4–7, 2015 859 ± 3.3% 36% 46% — 18%

Results

[edit]
United States Senate election in Ohio, 2016[185]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Rob Portman (incumbent) 3,118,567 58.03% +1.18%
Democratic Ted Strickland 1,996,908 37.16% −2.24%
Independent Tom Connors 93,041 1.73% N/A
Green Joseph R. DeMare 88,246 1.64% N/A
Independent Scott Rupert 77,291 1.44% N/A
Independent James Stahl (write-in) 111 0.00% N/A
Total votes 5,374,164 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Portman won 13 of 16 congressional districts, including one held by a Democrat.[186]

District Portman Strickland Representative
1st 60% 36% Steve Chabot
2nd 65% 31% Brad Wenstrup
3rd 36% 59% Joyce Beatty
4th 69% 26% Jim Jordan
5th 66% 30% Bob Latta
6th 66% 29% Bill Johnson
7th 66% 29% Bob Gibbs
8th 72% 24% Warren Davidson
9th 43% 51% Marcy Kaptur
10th 60% 36% Mike Turner
11th 22% 73% Marcia Fudge
12th 62% 34% Pat Tiberi
13th 48% 46% Tim Ryan
14th 61% 34% David Joyce
15th 61% 34% Steve Stivers
16th 62% 32% Jim Renacci

Analysis

[edit]

Despite being seen early on as a tight race, Portman began to gain the upper hand as Strickland's campaign was said to be the worst he had ever run.[187][188] Portman received the endorsements of many labor unions including the Ohio Teamsters and the United Mine Workers Union, both of which usually endorsed Democrats. In the end Portman ended up winning in a landslide, the only region where Strickland outperformed Hillary Clinton was in Appalachia, but his performance there was still disappointing for an area he used to represent in Congress.

References

[edit]
  1. ^ "2016 Ohio Elections Calendar" (PDF). Ohio Secretary of State. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 2, 2016. Retrieved February 20, 2016.
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  4. ^ Bernstein, Jonathan (August 26, 2014) "Everybody's Running (Rob Portman Edition)", Bloomberg View. Retrieved August 26, 2014.
  5. ^ Torry, Jack (August 26, 2014) "2016 preview?: Ohio Sen. Portman visits New Hampshire" Archived September 3, 2014, at the Wayback Machine, Dayton Daily News. Retrieved August 26, 2014.
  6. ^ Conroy, Scott (August 26, 2014) "Portman Won't Run for Two Offices Simultaneously in 2016", RealClearPolitics. Retrieved August 26, 2014.
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[edit]

Official campaign websites (Archived)

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