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2016 United States Senate election in Florida

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See also: 2016 United States Senate elections

2016 United States Senate election in Florida
← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →
 
Nominee Marco Rubio Patrick Murphy
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 4,835,191 4,122,088
Percentage 51.98% 44.31%
Rubio:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Murphy:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%
     No votes
U.S. senator before election

Marco Rubio
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Marco Rubio
Republican

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The 2016 United States Senate election in Florida was held November 8, 2016 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Florida, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary elections for both the Republicans and Democrats took place on August 30, 2016.[1]

Incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio ran for another term but faced well-funded Republican primary opposition after initially announcing he would not seek re-election to his Senate seat. He had openly considered whether to seek re-election or run for president in 2016.[2][3][4] He stated in April 2014 that he would not run for both the Senate and president in 2016, as Florida law prohibits a candidate from simultaneously appearing twice on a ballot, but did not rule out running for either office.[5]

However, in April 2015, Rubio announced that he was running for President and would not seek re-election.[6][7][8][9] Rubio had initially said he would not run for re-election to the Senate even if he dropped out of the GOP presidential primary before he would have to qualify for the 2016 Senate primary ballot, for which the filing deadline was June 24, 2016.[10][11]

On June 13, 2016, despite his previous statements that he would not run for re-election to his Senate seat, Rubio "seemed to open the door to running for re-election," citing the previous day's mass shooting in Orlando and how "it really gives you pause, to think a little bit about your service to your country and where you can be most useful to your country."[12] On June 22, 2016, Rubio announced that he would seek re-election to the Senate, reversing his pledge not to run.[13]

On August 30, the Republican Party nominated Marco Rubio, and the Democratic Party nominated Representative Patrick Murphy. Rubio won with the largest raw vote total in Florida history (until Donald Trump broke the record in 2020), taking a greater percentage of the popular vote than Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, who won the state in the election. He is the first Republican Senator from Florida since 1994, and only the second with Connie Mack, to be reelected to a second term. Also, with Mel Martinez's victory in 2004, this marks the first time that Republicans have won one of Florida's Senate seats three times in a row (Mack succeeded Lawton Chiles, a Democrat, and was succeeded by another Democrat, Bill Nelson).

Marco Rubio won 48% of the Hispanic vote and 17% of the African American vote during this election, an exceptional number for a Republican during a presidential year.[14] Additionally, Rubio's raw vote total was the highest vote total for any Republican Senate candidate up until Texas Senator John Cornyn broke it in 2020.

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Ron DeSantis (withdrew)

Individuals

Organizations

David Jolly (withdrew)

Individuals

Carlos López-Cantera (withdrew)

Statewide officials

State legislators

Mayors and other municipal leaders

Marco Rubio

Presidents of the United States

Governors

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Individuals

Organizations

Statewide officials

Newspaper Editorial Boards

Declined to endorse

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Carlos
Beruff 		Ron
DeSantis 		David
Jolly 		Ilya
Katz 		Carlos
López-Cantera 		Marco
Rubio 		Todd
Wilcox 		Other/
Undecided
Mason-Dixon[123] August 22–24, 2016 400 ± 5% 22% — — — — 61% — 15%
Florida Atlantic University[124] August 19–22, 2016 327 ± 5.4% 8% — — — — 69% 5% 15%
Florida Chamber of Commerce[125] August 17–22, 2016 249 ± 4.0% 19% — — — — 68% — 10%
St. Leo University[126] August 14–18, 2016 479 ± 4.5% 14% — — — — 68% — 18%
Suffolk University[127] August 1–3, 2016 183 ± 4.4% 12% – – – – 62% – 26%
St. Pete Polls[128] August 2, 2016 1,835 ± 2.3% 22% – – – – 55% – 23%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA[129] June 25–27, 2016 555 ± 4.1% 11% – – – – 63% – 13%
Vox Populi Polling (R)[130] June 19–20, 2016 487 ± 4.4% 5% – – – – 57% 4% 34%
St. Leo University[131] June 10–16, 2016 500 ± 7% 4% 5% 4% 1% 3% 52% 2% 27%
8% 8% 8% 2% 9% – 5% 57%
Mason-Dixon[132] May 31–June 2, 2016 400 ± 5% 17% 10% 13% – 9% – 2% 49%
News 13/Bay News 9[133] March 4–6, 2016 724 ± 3.7% 1% 11% 18% 4% 9% – 7% 50%
Washington Post/Univision[134] March 2–5, 2016 450 ± 5.5% 0% 6% 5% – 6% – 2% 81%
Public Policy Polling[135] February 24–25, 2016 464 ± 4.6% – 14% 26% – 11% – 2% 47%
Florida Atlantic University College of Business[136] January 15–18, 2016 345 ± 5.2% – 8% 28% – 8% – – 57%
St. Pete Polls/Saint Petersblog[137] December 14–15, 2015 2,694 ± 1.9% – 18% 21% – 10% – 8% 44%
St. Leo University[138] November 29 – December 3, 2015 147 ± 8% – 6% 12% 4% 8% – 7% 63%
Public Policy Polling[139] September 11–13, 2015 377 ± 5.1% – 15% 18% – 14% – – 52%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Vern
Buchanan 		Ben
Carson 		Ron
DeSantis 		Don
Gaetz 		David
Jolly 		George
LeMieux 		Carlos
López-Cantera 		Bill
McCollum 		Jeff
Miller 		Tom
Rooney 		Todd
Wilcox 		Other/
Undecided
News 13/Bay News 9[133] March 4–6, 2016 724 ± 3.7% – 56% – – – – – – – – – 44%
Mason-Dixon[140] July 20–24, 2015 500 ± 4.5% – – 8% – 11% – 7% 22% 6% – 1% 45%
– – 9% – 16% – 10% – 8% – 2% 55%
St. Pete Polls[141] July 15, 2015 1,074 ± 3.0% – — 9% — 22% — 11% — 12% — – 46%
Gravis Marketing[142] June 16—20, 2015 729 ± 3.6% – — 16% — — — 7% 25% 6% — – 46%
St. Leo University[143] May 25–31, 2015 425 ± 4.5% – — 6% 4% 6% 3% 7% 16% 8% — – 43%
Mason-Dixon[144] Apr. 14–16, 2015 425 ± 4.8% 7% – 4% 1% 8% 3% 4% 20% — 5% – 48%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jeff
Atwater 		Pam
Bondi 		Carlos
López-Cantera 		Adam
Putnam 		Allen
West 		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy Polling[145] March 19–22, 2015 425 ± 4.8% 12% 25% 8% — 38% 18%
41% — 15% — — 43%
Gravis Marketing[146] February 24–25, 2015 513 ± 4% 9% 36% — 12% — 43%
Public Policy Polling[147] September 4–7, 2014 818 ± 3.4% 17% 38% — 16% — 29%

Results

[edit]
Republican primary results[148]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Marco Rubio (incumbent) 1,029,830 71.99%
Republican Carlos Beruff 264,427 18.49%
Republican Dwight Young 91,082 6.37%
Republican Ernie Rivera 45,153 3.16%
Total votes 1,430,492 100.00%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]
  • Lateresa Jones, life coach and independent candidate for lieutenant governor in 2014 (running as an Independent)[155][156]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Alan Grayson

Politicians

Activists

Labor unions

Organizations

Pam Keith

Newspaper Editorial Boards

Patrick Murphy

Presidents

Vice Presidents

U.S. Cabinet Members and Cabinet-level officials

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

Statewide officials

State legislators

Mayors and other municipal leaders

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspaper Editorial Boards

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Alan
Grayson 		Pam
Keith 		Lateresa
Jones 		Patrick
Murphy 		Other/
Undecided
Mason-Dixon[216] August 22–24, 2016 400 ± 5% 22% 4% — 55% 19%
Florida Atlantic University[124] August 19–22, 2016 364 8% 7% — 54% 22%
Florida Chamber of Commerce[125] August 17–22, 2016 258 ± 4.0% 11% — — 40% 38%
St. Leo University[126] August 14–18, 2016 532 ± 4.5% 17% 8% — 48% 27%
Suffolk University[217] August 1–3, 2016 194 ± 4.4% 17% 2% – 36% 45%
St. Pete Polls[218] August 2, 2016 1,807 ± 2.3% 20% 7% – 45% 28%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA[129] June 25–27, 2016 618 ± 4.0% 21% 10% – 30% 35%
Vox Populi Polling (R)[219] June 19–20, 2016 530 ± 4.3% 15% 5% – 19% 62%
Targeted Persuasion[220] June 14–16, 2016 862 ± 3.34% 30% 5% – 27% 38%
St. Leo University[131] June 10–16, 2016 500 ± 7% 14% 3% 4% 16% 61%
Mason-Dixon[221] May 31–June 2, 2016 400 ± 5% 23% 3% – 31% 43%
Public Policy Polling[222] March 22–23, 2016 829 ? 33% – – 32% 35%
St. Leo University[223] March 13–17, 2016 540 ± 5% 17% – – 20% 63%
Mason-Dixon[224] March 7–9, 2016 500 ± 4.5% 19% – – 33% 48%
SurveyUSA[225] March 4–6, 2016 592 ± 4.1% 16% 11% – 27% 46%
Bendixon & Amandi/The Tarrance Group[226] March 2–5, 2016 449 ± 6% 19% – – 27% 54%
Univision[227] March 2–5, 2016 449 ± 6% 29% – – 36% 35%
Public Policy Polling[135] February 24–25, 2016 388 ± 5% 33% – – 22% 45%
20/20 Insight LLC*[228] ~February 16–18, 2016 646 ± 3.9% 41% – – 32% 27%
Florida Atlantic University College of Business[136] January 15–18, 2016 371 ± 5% 27% – – 20% 53%
St. Leo University[138] November 29–December 3, 2015 160 ± 7.5% 7% 4% 6% 17% 55%
Public Policy Polling[139] September 11–13, 2015 368 ± 5.1% 33% – – 27% 39%
Mason-Dixon[140] July 20–24, 2015 500 ± 4.5% 24% – – 26% 50%
33% – – 32% 35%
St. Pete Polls[229] July 15, 2015 1,018 ± 3.1% 30% 8% – 23% 39%
Gravis Marketing[142] June 16–20, 2015 881 ± 3.3% 63% – – 19% 18%
Vox Populi Polling (R)[230] June 15–17, 2015 717 ± 3.7% 24% – – 34% 42%
St. Leo University[143] May 25–31, 2015 535 ± 4.5% 24% — – 27% 49%
Mason-Dixon[231] April 14–16, 2015 400 ± 5% 14% – – 23% 63%
Public Policy Polling[232] March 19–22, 2015 371 ± 5.1% 22% – – 21% 56%
* Internal poll for Alan Grayson

Results

[edit]
County results
Democratic primary results[148]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Patrick Murphy 665,985 58.92%
Democratic Alan Grayson 199,929 17.72%
Democratic Pam Keith 173,919 15.40%
Democratic Rocky De La Fuente 60,810 5.38%
Democratic Reginald Luster 29,138 2.58%
Total votes 1,129,781 100.00%

Libertarian primary

[edit]

On October 1, 2015, Adrian Wyllie and Lynn House, chair and vice chair, respectively, of the Libertarian Party of Florida, resigned their seats in protest after the executive committee refused to oust candidate Augustus Invictus from the party. According to Wyllie, Invictus had defended eugenics, called for a new Civil War, and brutally slaughtered a goat, and is not representative of the Libertarian Party. Invictus has refuted these claims, calling Wyllie's accusations, "deliberate misrepresentation[s]."[233]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Paul Stanton

Individuals

Libertarian Party of Florida Affiliates

Organizations

  • Eastern Liberty Alliance PAC[237]
  • Ninjas for Liberty PAC[237]
Augustus Sol Invictus

Individuals

  • Keon A. Grayson, North Central, Miami-Dade County Community Councilman[248]
  • Steve Scheetz, former Chair of the Pennsylvania Libertarian Party[249]
  • Bill Wohlsifer, former candidate for Florida Attorney General[250]

Results

[edit]
2016 United States Senate Libertarian primary in Florida by county
Map legend
  •   Stanton—50-60%
  •   Stanton—60-70%
  •   Stanton—70-80%
  •   Stanton—80-90%
  •   Stanton—>90%
  •   Invictus—50-60%
  •   Tie—50%
  •   No votes
Libertarian primary results[148]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Paul Stanton 2,946 73.48%
Libertarian Augustus Sol Invictus 1,063 26.52%
Total votes 4,009 100.00%

Independent

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

No party affiliation

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

General election

[edit]

Debates

[edit]
Dates Location Rubio Murphy Stanton Link
October 17, 2016 Orlando, Florida Participant Participant Not Invited [258]
October 26, 2016 Davie, Florida Participant Participant Not Invited [259]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[260] Lean R November 2, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[261] Lean R November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[262] Lean R November 3, 2016
Daily Kos[263] Lean R November 8, 2016
Real Clear Politics[264] Tossup November 7, 2016

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Marco
Rubio (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Paul
Stanton (L) 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey[265] November 1–7, 2016 4,092 ± 4.6% 48% 49% — — 3%
Quinnipiac University[266] November 3–6, 2016 884 ± 3.3% 50% 43% — 2% 5%
Alliance/ESA Poll[267] November 2–6, 2016 875 ± 4.2% 51% 40% — — 9%
SurveyMonkey[268] October 31–November 6, 2016 3,574 ± 4.6% 48% 49% — — 3%
CBS News/YouGov[269] November 2–4, 2016 1,188 ± 3.6% 47% 44% — 3% 6%
SurveyMonkey[270] October 28–November 3, 2016 3,356 ± 4.6% 49% 49% — — 2%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[271] November 1–2, 2016 1,220 ± 2.8% 47% 46% — — 7%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy[272] November 1–2, 2016 603 ± 4.0% 50% 46% — — 4%
SurveyMonkey[273] October 27–November 2, 2016 2,901 ± 4.6% 49% 48% — — 3%
CNN/ORC[274] October 27–November 1, 2016 773 LV ± 3.5% 49% 48% — — 2%
884 RV 50% 47% — — 3%
Quinnipiac University[275] October 27–November 1, 2016 626 ± 3.9% 50% 44% — 1% 4%
SurveyMonkey[276] October 26–November 1, 2016 2,715 ± 4.6% 49% 47% — — 4%
SurveyMonkey[277] October 25–31, 2016 2,809 ± 4.6% 49% 47% — — 4%
TargetSmart/William & Mary[278] October 25–28, 2016 718 ± 3.4% 49% 43% — 7% 1%
Emerson College[279] October 26–27, 2016 500 ± 4.3% 49% 47% — 3% 1%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College[280] October 25–27, 2016 814 ± 3.4% 51% 42% — — 5%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[281] October 25–26, 2016 1,301 ± 2.7% 46% 46% — — 8%
Public Policy Polling[282] October 25–26, 2016 742 ± 3.6% 46% 46% — — 8%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[283] October 25–26, 2016 779 LV ± 3.5% 51% 43% — 4% 2%
990 RV ± 3.1% 50% 42% — 4% 3%
St. Leo University[284] October 22–26, 2016 1,028 ± 3.0% 44% 39% — — 17%
University of North Florida[285] October 20–25, 2016 836 ± 3.6% 49% 43% — — 8%
Bloomberg/Selzer[286] October 21–24, 2016 953 ± 3.2% 51% 41% — — 8%
Florida Atlantic University[287] October 21–23, 2016 500 ± 4.3% 46% 42% — — 12%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA[288] October 20–24, 2016 1,251 ± 2.8% 45% 41% — 6% 8%
CBS News/YouGov[289] October 20–21, 2016 1,042 ± 3.6% 44% 42% — 6% 8%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy[290] October 20, 2016 538 ± 4.2% 46% 46% — — 8%
Google Consumer Surveys[291] October 18–20, 2016 500 ± 4.2% 57% 38% — — 5%
Associated Industries of Florida[292] October 19, 2016 1,000 ± 3.1% 43% 38% — 8% 11%
Florida Chamber of Commerce[293] October 16–19, 2016 507 ± 4.4% 51% 37% — 1% 11%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid[294] October 17–18, 2016 892 ± 3.0% 45% 44% — — 11%
Quinnipiac University[295] October 10–16, 2016 660 ± 3.8% 49% 47% — — 4%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey[296] October 8–16, 2016 1,702 ± 0.5% 51% 45% — — 4%
Public Policy Polling[297] October 12–13, 2016 985 ± 3.1% 44% 38% 6% — 12%
48% 43% — — 9%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[298] October 11–13, 2016 1,799 ± 2.3% 44% 36% — — 20%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy[299] October 10–11, 2016 533 ± 4.2% 48% 44% — — 8%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[300] October 3–5, 2016 700 ± 3.7% 48% 46% — 2% 4%
Associated Industries of Florida[301] October 2–5, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 49% 41% — 1% 9%
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing[302] October 4, 2016 821 ± 3.4% 44% 40% — — 16%
Emerson College[303] October 2–4, 2016 600 ± 3.6% 47% 39% — 6% 8%
University of North Florida[304] September 27–October 4, 2016 667 ± 3.8% 48% 41% — 1% 10%
Quinnipiac University[305] September 27–October 2, 2016 545 ± 4.2% 48% 44% — — 8%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy[306] September 28–29, 2016 619 ± 4.0% 47% 43% — — 10%
Mason-Dixon[307] September 27–29, 2016 820 ± 3.5% 47% 40% 5% 2% 6%
Public Policy Polling[308] September 27–28, 2016 826 ± 3.4% 42% 35% 9% — 15%
47% 44% — — 9%
Suffolk University[309] September 19–21, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 43% 34% 2% 4% 17%
Florida Chamber of Commerce[310] September 15–20, 2016 617 ± 4.0% 46% 42% — — 11%
Monmouth University[311] September 16–19, 2016 400 ± 4.9% 47% 45% — 3% 5%
Saint Leo University[312] September 10–16, 2016 502 ± 4.5% 44% 35% — — 21%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College[313] September 10–14, 2016 867 ± 3.3% 48% 42% — — 8%
CNN/ORC[314] September 7–12, 2016 788 LV ± 3.0% 54% 43% — 1% 2%
886 RV 51% 45% — 1% 4%
Global Strategy Group[315] September 6–11, 2016 800 ± 3.5% 47% 45% — — 8%
JMC Analytics (R)[316] September 7–8, 2016 781 ± 3.5% 43% 38% — 4% 15%
Quinnipiac University[317] August 31–September 7, 2016 601 ± 4.0% 50% 43% — 1% 6%
Public Policy Polling[318] September 4–6, 2016 744 ± 3.6% 40% 37% 10% — 13%
Mason-Dixon[319] August 22–24, 2016 625 ± 4.0% 46% 43% — — 11%
iCitizen[320] August 18–24, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 43% 42% — — 16%
Florida Atlantic University[321] August 19–22, 2016 1,200 ± 2.7% 44% 39% — — 17%
St. Leo University[126] August 14–18, 2016 1,380 ± 3.0% 46% 38% — — 16%
Monmouth University[322] August 12–15, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 48% 43% — 3% 5%
FOX 13 Tampa Bay/Opinion Savvy[323] August 10, 2016 622 ± 4.0% 45% 43% — — 12%
Civis Analytics[324] August 9–15, 2016 1,436 ± 2.8% 44% 45% — — 9%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[325] August 4–10, 2016 862 ± 3.3% 49% 43% — 3% 5%
Public Policy Polling[326] August 5–7, 2016 938 ± 3.2% 42% 40% — — 18%
Quinnipiac University[327] July 30–August 7, 2016 1,056 ± 3.0% 48% 45% — — 7%
Suffolk University[328] August 1–3, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 46% 33% — — 21%
JMC Analytics (R)[329] July 9–10, 2016 700 ± 3.7% 40% 33% — 5% 21%
NBC/WSJ/Marist[330] July 5–11, 2016 871 ± 3.3% 47% 44% — 2% 7%
Quinnipiac University[331] June 30–July 11, 2016 1,015 ± 3.1% 50% 37% — 1% 8%
Bay News 9/SurveyUSA[129] June 25–27, 2016 1,678 ± 2.4% 43% 43% — 7% 8%
Quinnipiac University[332] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 47% 40% — — 13%
Public Policy Polling[333] June 15–16, 2016 508 ± 4.4% 41% 42% — — 17%
Public Policy Polling[334] June 2–5, 2016 737 ± 3.6% 43% 44% — — 13%
Associated Industries of Florida[335] April 25–27, 2016 604 ± 5.0% 49% 41% — — 10%
Public Policy Polling[139] September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 46% 40% — — 14%
Public Policy Polling[232] March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 48% 41% — — 11%
Mason-Dixon[336] March 3–5, 2015 800 ± 3.5% 50% 38% — — 12%
Public Policy Polling[147] September 4–7, 2014 818 ± 3.4% 46% 41% — — 12%
Hypothetical polling

with Ron DeSantis

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
DeSantis (R) 		Alan
Grayson (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[332] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 33% 41% 1% 24%
Quinnipiac University[337] April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 38% 36% — 26%
Public Policy Polling[135] February 24–25, 2016 1,012 ± 3.1% 34% 40% — 26%
Quinnipiac University[338] September 25-October 5, 2015 1,173 ± 2.9% 31% 37% 1% 26%
Public Policy Polling[139] September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 37% 36% — 28%
Quinnipiac University[339] June 4–15, 2015 1,147 ± 2.9% 32% 38% 1% 29%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Ron
DeSantis (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[332] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 32% 42% 1% 25%
Quinnipiac University[340] April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 35% 36% — 29%
Associated Industries of Florida[335] April 25–27, 2016 604 ± 5% 28% 40% — 32%
Public Policy Polling[135] February 24–25, 2016 1,012 ± 3.1% 31% 43% — 26%
Quinnipiac University[341] September 25-October 5, 2015 1,173 ± 2.9% 30% 37% 1% 29%
Public Policy Polling[139] September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 35% 40% — 25%
Quinnipiac University[339] June 4–15, 2015 1,147 ± 2.9% 31% 39% 1% 29%
St. Leo University[143] May 25–31, 2015 535 ± 4.5% 14% 33% — 53%

with David Jolly

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		David
Jolly (R) 		Alan
Grayson (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[332] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 34% 41% 1% 24%
Public Policy Polling[334] June 2–5, 2016 737 ± 3.6% 33% 40% — 27%
Quinnipiac University[342] April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 37% 35% — 28%
Public Policy Polling[135] February 24–25, 2016 1,012 ± 3.1% 38% 35% — 26%
Public Policy Polling[139] September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 39% 36% — 26%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		David
Jolly (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[332] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 34% 41% 1% 25%
Public Policy Polling[334] June 2–5, 2016 737 ± 3.6% 29% 44% — 27%
Quinnipiac University[343] April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 34% 37% — 29%
Associated Industries of Florida[335] April 25–27, 2016 604 ± 5% 33% 40% — 27%
Public Policy Polling[135] February 24–25, 2016 1,012 ± 3.1% 34% 38% — 27%
Democracy Corps[344] October 24–28, 2015 400 ± 4.9% 44% 43% — 13%
Public Policy Polling[139] September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 35% 40% — 25%
St. Leo University[143] May 25–31, 2015 535 ± 4.5% 14% 35% — 52%

with Carlos Lopez-Cantera

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Carlos
López-Cantera (R) 		Alan
Grayson (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[332] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 35% 40% 1% 24%
Quinnipiac University[345] April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 37% 37% — 26%
Public Policy Polling[135] February 24–25, 2016 1,012 ± 3.1% 35% 38% — 26%
Quinnipiac University[346] September 25-October 5, 2015 1,173 ± 2.9% 32% 35% 1% 27%
Public Policy Polling[139] September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 34% 41% — 24%
Quinnipiac University[339] June 4–15, 2015 1,147 ± 2.9% 31% 37% 1% 31%
Quinnipiac University[347] March 17–28, 2015 1,087 ± 3% 33% 32% 1% 34%
Public Policy Polling[232] March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 36% 40% — 24%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Carlos
López-Cantera (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[332] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 32% 41% 1% 26%
Quinnipiac University[348] April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 34% 38% — 28%
Associated Industries of Florida[335] April 25–27, 2016 604 ± 5% 31% 42% — 27%
Public Policy Polling[135] February 24–25, 2016 1,012 ± 3.1% 31% 40% — 29%
Quinnipiac University[349] September 25-October 5, 2015 1,173 ± 2.9% 29% 37% 1% 30%
Public Policy Polling[139] September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 35% 41% — 24%
Quinnipiac University[339] June 4–15, 2015 1,147 ± 2.9% 28% 40% 1% 32%
St. Leo University[143] May 25–31, 2015 535 ± 4.5% 15% 30% — 56%
Quinnipiac University[347] March 17–28, 2015 1,087 ± 3% 31% 35% 1% 33%
Public Policy Polling[232] March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 34% 41% — 25%

with Jeff Atwater

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jeff
Atwater (R) 		Alan
Grayson (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[347] March 17–28, 2015 1,087 ± 3% 42% 32% 1% 25%
Public Policy Polling[232] March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 41% 40% — 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jeff
Atwater (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[347] March 17–28, 2015 1,087 ± 3% 38% 34% 1% 27%
Public Policy Polling[232] March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 41% 39% — 20%
Mason-Dixon[336] March 3–5, 2015 800 ± 3.5% 46% 32% — 22%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jeff
Atwater (R) 		Debbie
Wasserman
Schultz (D) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon[336] March 3–5, 2015 800 ± 3.5% 45% 35% 20%

with Pam Bondi

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Pam
Bondi (R) 		Alan
Grayson (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[232] March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 45% 42% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Pam
Bondi (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[232] March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 45% 41% 14%

with Don Gaetz

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Don
Gaetz (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Undecided
St. Leo University[143] May 25–31, 2015 535 ± 4.5% 9% 36% 55%

with Jeff Miller

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Jeff
Miller (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Undecided
St. Leo University[143] May 25–31, 2015 535 ± 4.5% 15% 34% 52%

with Marco Rubio

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Marco
Rubio (R) 		Alex
Sink (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[350] September 27–29, 2013 579 ± 4.1% 45% 42% 13%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Marco
Rubio (R) 		Debbie
Wasserman
Schultz (D) 		Undecided
Mason-Dixon[336] March 3–5, 2015 800 ± 3.5% 53% 36% 11%
Public Policy Polling[147] September 4–7, 2014 818 ± 3.4% 47% 43% 9%
Public Policy Polling[351] June 6–9, 2014 672 ± 3.8% 48% 40% 12%
Public Policy Polling[350] September 27–29, 2013 579 ± 4.1% 46% 43% 11%

with Allen West

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Allen
West (R) 		Alan
Grayson (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[232] March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 39% 42% 19%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Allen
West (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[232] March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 39% 41% 20%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Allen
West (R) 		Alex
Sink (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[350] September 27–29, 2013 579 ± 4.1% 38% 44% 18%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Allen
West (R) 		Debbie
Wasserman
Schultz (D) 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling[351] June 6–9, 2014 672 ± 3.8% 41% 40% 19%
Public Policy Polling[350] September 27–29, 2013 579 ± 4.1% 40% 44% 16%

with Todd Wilcox

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Todd
Wilcox (R) 		Alan
Grayson (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[332] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 34% 39% 2% 24%
Quinnipiac University[352] April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 37% 35% — 28%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Todd
Wilcox (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[332] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 31% 41% 1% 26%
Quinnipiac University[353] April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 33% 38% — 27%

with Carlos Beruff

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Carlos
Beruff (R) 		Alan
Grayson (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[354] July 30–August 7, 2016 1,056 ± 3.0% 39% 43% 1% 17%
Quinnipiac University[355] June 30–July 11, 2016 1,015 ± 3.1% 38% 38% 1% 19%
Quinnipiac University[332] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 33% 40% 1% 25%
Public Policy Polling[334] June 2–5, 2016 737 ± 3.6% 32% 41% — 28%
Quinnipiac University[356] April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 35% 36% — 29%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Carlos
Beruff (R) 		Patrick
Murphy (D) 		Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University[357] July 30–August 7, 2016 1,056 ± 3.0% 34% 48% 1% 17%
Quinnipiac University[358] June 30–July 11, 2016 1,015 ± 3.1% 34% 40% 1% 19%
Quinnipiac University[332] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 31% 43% 1% 26%
Public Policy Polling[334] June 2–5, 2016 737 ± 3.6% 31% 43% — 27%
Quinnipiac University[359] April 27–May 8, 2016 1,051 ± 3.0% 32% 38% — 29%
Associated Industries of Florida[335] April 25–27, 2016 604 ± 5.0% 31% 39% — 30%

with Alan Grayson

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Marco
Rubio (R) 		Alan
Grayson (D) 		Other Undecided
iCitizen[320] August 18–24, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 44% 39% — 16%
St. Leo University[126] August 14–18, 2016 1,380 ± 3.0% 47% 34% — 19%
Monmouth University[322] August 12–15, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 50% 39% 5% 6%
Quinnipiac University[360] July 30–August 7, 2016 1,056 ± 3.0% 49% 43% 1% 8%
Suffolk University[361] August 1–3, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 45% 31% — 24%
JMC Analytics (R)[329] July 9–10, 2016 700 ± 3.7% 41% 33% 4% 22%
Quinnipiac University[362] June 30–July 11, 2016 1,015 ± 3.1% 50% 38% 1% 8%
Quinnipiac University[332] June 8–19, 2016 975 ± 3.1% 50% 38% 1% 11%
Public Policy Polling[333] June 15–16, 2016 508 ± 4.4% 42% 40% — 17%
Public Policy Polling[334] June 2–5, 2016 737 ± 3.6% 43% 38% — 19%
Public Policy Polling[139] September 11–13, 2015 814 ± 3.4% 48% 38% — 14%
Public Policy Polling[232] March 19–22, 2015 923 ± 3.2% 49% 40% — 11%

Results

[edit]
United States Senate election in Florida, 2016 [363]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Marco Rubio (incumbent) 4,835,191 51.98% +3.09%
Democratic Patrick Murphy 4,122,088 44.31% +24.11%
Libertarian Paul Stanton 196,956 2.12% +1.66%
Independent Bruce Nathan 52,451 0.56% N/A
Independent Tony Khoury 45,820 0.49% N/A
Independent Steven Machat 26,918 0.29% N/A
Independent Basil E. Dalack 22,236 0.24% N/A
Write-in 160 0.00% 0.00%
Total votes 9,301,820 100.00% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

[edit]

Counties that from Independent to Republican

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Rubio won 16 of 27 congressional districts, with the remaining 11 going to Murphy. Each candidate won a congressional district that elected a representative of the other party.[364]

District Rubio Murphy Representative
1st 70% 25% Jeff Miller
Matt Gaetz
2nd 66% 30% Gwen Graham
Neal Dunn
3rd 59% 37% Ted Yoho
4th 68% 28% Ander Crenshaw
John Rutherford
5th 41% 55% Corrine Brown
Al Lawson
6th 57% 39% Ron DeSantis
7th 48% 46% John Mica
Stephanie Murphy
8th 59% 36% Bill Posey
9th 46% 50% Alan Grayson
Darren Soto
10th 40% 56% Daniel Webster
Val Demings
11th 62% 33% Rich Nugent
Daniel Webster
12th 56% 38% Gus Bilirakis
13th 47% 48% David Jolly
Charlie Crist
14th 44% 52% Kathy Castor
15th 54% 41% Dennis Ross
16th 55% 40% Vern Buchanan
17th 62% 33% Tom Rooney
18th 52% 45% Patrick Murphy
Brian Mast
19th 65% 31% Curt Clawson
Francis Rooney
20th 21% 77% Alcee Hastings
21st 42% 55% Lois Frankel
22nd 43% 55% Ted Deutch
23rd 40% 58% Debbie Wasserman Schultz
24th 20% 77% Frederica Wilson
25th 60% 37% Mario Díaz-Balart
26th 49% 48% Carlos Curbelo
27th 48.6% 49.2% Ileana Ros-Lehtinen

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
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[edit]

Official campaign websites

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