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2022 Kansas gubernatorial election

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2022 Kansas gubernatorial election
← 2018 November 8, 2022 2026 →
Turnout47.94% Decrease[1]
 
Nominee Laura Kelly Derek Schmidt
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate David Toland Katie Sawyer
Popular vote 499,849 477,591
Percentage 49.54% 47.33%
Kelly:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Schmidt:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Pyle:      60–70%      >90%
Tie:      30–40%      40–50%      50%      No votes
Governor before election

Laura Kelly
Democratic

Elected Governor

Laura Kelly
Democratic

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The 2022 Kansas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Kansas, with primary elections taking place on August 2, 2022.[2] Governor Laura Kelly ran for re-election to a second term, facing Republican State Attorney General Derek Schmidt in the general election. Kelly defeated Schmidt by a margin of roughly 2.2 percentage points.

This was the only Democratic-held governorship up for election in 2022 in a state Donald Trump won in the 2020 presidential election, and the race was expected to be one of the most competitive gubernatorial races in the nation. Some analysts and Kansas Republican Party officials had also predicted that Dennis Pyle, who was on the ballot as an independent, would have a spoiler effect benefiting Kelly.[3][4] This was the first gubernatorial election in Kansas since 1986 in which the winner was from the same party as the incumbent president.[5]

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]
  • Laura Kelly, incumbent governor (2019–present)[6]
    • Running mate: David Toland, incumbent lieutenant governor (2021–present) and Secretary of Commerce (2019–present)[6]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]
  • Richard Karnowski, accountant[7]
    • Running mate: Barry Franco[7]

Endorsements

[edit]
Laura Kelly

State officials

State legislators

Organization

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Kelly
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Democratic primary results[12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic
270,968 93.84
Democratic
  • Richard Karnowski
  • Barry Franco
 17,802 6.16
Total votes 288,770 100

Republican primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominated

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Derek Schmidt

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State officials

Organizations

Jeff Colyer (withdrew)

U.S. representative

Polling

[edit]
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Jeff
Colyer 		Ron
Ryckman Jr. 		Derek
Schmidt 		Undecided
Cygnal (R)[35][A] March 3–4, 2021 510 (LV) ± 4.3% 19% 5% 28% 49%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Schmidt
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   90–100%
Republican primary results[12]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican
373,524 80.60
Republican
  • Arlyn Briggs
  • Lance Berland
 89,898 19.40
Total votes 463,422 100.00

Independent

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Campaign

[edit]

Reporters noted the lack of attention towards abortion as an issue in the campaign by both major candidates, despite the defeat of an abortion amendment in August which was widely seen as a prominent victory for the pro-choice movement.[37][38] In televised debates, Schmidt said that he respected the referendum results and accused Kelly of opposing existing abortion restrictions. Kelly denied the accusation, saying that she had stayed consistent on the subject, and further adding that she believed in "bodily autonomy" for women.[39] When pressed on whether they would support retaining all justices in the state Supreme Court who ruled abortion as a fundamental constitutional right in 2019 and were up on the ballot, Kelly said that she would, while Schmidt said he would vote to retain some and not others.[40]

Instead, both candidates focused more on "kitchen-table" issues such as the economy and education,[38] where polls showed that the former of which was the most important concern among voters.[37][41] Kelly's campaign tied Schmidt with former governor Sam Brownback and his Kansas experiment, highlighting Schmidt's defense of lawsuits regarding budget cuts to public education as the attorney general.[42] In the contrary, Schmidt's campaign tied Kelly with President Joe Biden by focusing on national issues such as the increase in inflation and gas prices, portraying them as "big-spending liberals".[40] Other issues include criminal justice[43][44] and transgender people in sports.[45][46]

Aside from state Supreme Court justice retention elections and other statewide elections, the election was also held on the same ballot as two referendums for proposed constitutional amendments. Question 1 would authorize the state legislature to veto any rules and regulations implemented by Kansas's executive branch with a simple majority.[47] The proposal was spearheaded by Schmidt in 2021 in response to Governor Kelly's pandemic-related measures to close schools temporarily and he made COVID-19 lockdowns and mandates as a focal point in his platform.[48] Kelly's campaign countered that the amendment would be a "power grab" that could create further gridlock in the state's legislative process.[49][50] Question 2 would require most sheriffs to be elected directly by voters and that they could only be removed by a recall election or a challenge by the state attorney general.[51] In a press release, Schmidt said that he would campaign for the amendment, arguing that electing sheriffs would make them "uniquely accountable to the people".[52] Critics pointed out that the amendment could create abuse of power as the authority to investigate the sheriff would be stripped from district attorneys in every county and the attorney general could "play favorites" into which sheriff to investigate.[48] In the end, Question 1 failed narrowly by a one-point margin, while Question 2 passed with 62% of the vote.[53]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[54] Tossup July 26, 2022
Inside Elections[55] Tossup July 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[56] Lean R (flip) November 7, 2022
Politico[57] Tossup August 12, 2022
RCP[58] Tossup August 3, 2022
Fox News[59] Tossup October 25, 2022
538[60] Lean D September 13, 2022
Elections Daily[61] Lean D November 7, 2022

Endorsements

[edit]
Laura Kelly (D)

Federal officials

State officials

State legislators

Organizations

Newspapers

Derek Schmidt (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

Federal legislators

State officials

Organizations

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Laura
Kelly (D) 		Derek
Schmidt (R) 		Other
[b] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight[78] August 10 – October 29, 2022 November 2, 2022 48.6% 43.5% 7.9% Kelly +5.1

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Laura
Kelly (D) 		Derek
Schmidt (R) 		Dennis
Pyle (I) 		Other Undecided
Emerson College[79] October 27–29, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 43% 5% 2%[c] 4%
49% 44% 5% 2%[d] –
Jayhawk Consulting (D)[80][B] October 10–12, 2022 500 (LV) – 38% 37% 7% – 18%
Emerson College[81] September 15–18, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 43% 3% 1%[e] 8%
Echelon Insights[82][C] August 31 – September 7, 2022 392 (LV) ± 7.5% 53% 41% – – 5%
Battleground Connect (R)[83][D] August 8–10, 2022 1,074 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 48% 2% – 5%
WPA Intelligence (R)[84][E] April 26–27, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 43% 47% – – 10%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)[85][F] September 13–15, 2021 810 (LV) ± 3.5% 47% 44% – – 9%
Remington Research Group (R)[86] September 7–9, 2021 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 40% 44% – – 16%

Debates and forums

[edit]
2022 Kansas gubernatorial debates and forums
No. Date Host Moderator Location Link Republican Democratic Libertarian Independent
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

Derek Schmidt Laura Kelly Seth Cordell Dennis Pyle
1[87] September 7, 2022 Kansas Chamber of Commerce – Olathe [f] P P N N
2[89] September 10, 2022 WIBW-FM Greg Akagi Hutchinson Youtube P P N N
3[90] October 5, 2022 Kansas City PBS/
Johnson County Bar Association 		Nick Haines Overland Park Youtube P P N N

Results and analysis

[edit]
2022 Kansas gubernatorial election[53]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic
499,849 49.54% +1.53%
Republican
477,591 47.33% +4.35%
Independent
20,452 2.03% N/A
Libertarian
  • Seth Cordell
  • Evan Laudick-Gains
 11,106 1.10% −0.80%
Total votes 1,008,998 100.0%
Turnout 47.94%
Democratic hold

Laura Kelly won the election by a margin of 2.2 percentage points over Derek Schmidt, similar to the percentage of votes that independent Dennis Pyle received. Kansas Republican Party Chair Mike Kuckelman pointed to this as evidence that Pyle was somewhat responsible for Schmidt's defeat. However, Pyle insisted that "Kansas needed a strong conservative candidate" and instead highlighted Schmidt's underperformance compared to other Republican candidates in Kansas.[4]

Kelly's personal popularity was also a factor in her victory, where a majority of voters approved of Kelly's job performance, while only a third did so for President Joe Biden.[91][92] Her win was also propelled by Democratic candidates' increased strength in suburban areas, such as Johnson County, in spite of Schmidt's increased vote share from 2018 in the Republican strongholds of rural Kansas.[93] Kelly also won Sedgwick County, home of Wichita, by 2.9%,[94] receiving 1.8% more of the vote than in the 2018 Kansas gubernatorial election.[95] According to a survey conducted by NORC and published by Fox News, Kelly won independent voters by double-digit margins, which contributed to Schmidt's defeat.[96]

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]
Radar chart contrasting Laura Kelly's 2022 performance[97][98] with Vote No in 2022 Kansas abortion referendum[99][100]

By congressional district

[edit]

Kelly won 2 of 4 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.[101]

District Kelly Schmidt Other Representative
1st 44.09% 52.20% 3.71% Tracey Mann
2nd 48.58% 47.91% 3.51% Jake LaTurner
3rd 57.28% 40.46% 2.26% Sharice Davids
4th 46.10% 50.64% 3.26% Ron Estes

Exit polls

[edit]
This section is an excerpt from Laura Kelly § 2022.[edit]

Kelly was reelected on November 8, 2022, defeating Kansas Attorney General Derek Schmidt, 49.5% to 47.3%.

According to Fox News's voter analysis of the 2022 race,[102] Kelly won women voters (51% Kelly, 45% Schmidt), voters 18-29 (51% Kelly, 43% Schmidt), millennials (55%, 39%), Gen X (50%, 47%), college-educated voters (57%, 40%), and Latino/Hispanic voters (58%).

Kelly lost voters who were concerned about inflation by four points (46%). She lost voters who listed groceries and food as their most important inflation concern by one point, possibly due to her support for eliminating or reducing sales taxes on groceries in Kansas.[103][104] 69% of voters listed abortion as an important factor in their vote, and Kelly won this group by 24 points (60%, 36%), closely mirroring the results of the 2022 Kansas abortion referendum. She won voters who listed "the future of democracy in this country" as an important factor in their vote (88% of voters) by seven points (52%).[102]

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ Cordell (L) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  4. ^ Cordell (L) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  6. ^ Recording not made public[88]

Partisan clients

  1. ^ This poll was sponsored by Our Way of Life PAC
  2. ^ This poll was sponsored by Patrick Schmidt's campaign, the Democratic nominee for Kansas's 2nd congressional district.
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by NetChoice
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by the John Brown Freedom Fund
  5. ^ This poll was sponsored by Kris Kobach's campaign for Attorney General
  6. ^ This poll was sponsored by EMILY's List, which supports Kelly

References

[edit]
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  102. ^ a b "Fox News Voter Analysis". Fox News. July 9, 2023. Retrieved July 9, 2023.
  103. ^ Finnerty, Katharine (May 11, 2022). "Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly signs 'Axe the Food Tax' bill into law". KSHB 41 Kansas City News. Retrieved July 9, 2023.
  104. ^ "Governor Laura Kelly's Plan to "Axe the Food Tax": What They're Saying". Governor of the State of Kansas. November 10, 2021. Retrieved July 9, 2023.
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Official campaign websites

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