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2022 Texas gubernatorial election

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For related races, see 2022 United States gubernatorial elections.

2022 Texas gubernatorial election
← 2018 November 8, 2022 2026 →
Turnout45.85% Decrease
 
Nominee Greg Abbott Beto O'Rourke
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 4,437,099 3,553,656
Percentage 54.76% 43.86%
Abbott:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
O'Rourke:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      50%      No data
Governor before election

Greg Abbott
Republican

Elected Governor

Greg Abbott
Republican

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The 2022 Texas gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor of Texas. Incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbott won re-election to a third term, defeating the Democratic nominee, former Congressman Beto O'Rourke.[1] All statewide elected offices are currently held by Republicans. In his previous gubernatorial race in 2018, Abbott won with 55.8% of the vote.[2]

The Democratic and Republican primaries were held on March 1, 2022. O'Rourke and Abbott won outright majorities in their respective primaries, and therefore did not participate in the May 24 runoffs.

Texas has not elected a Democratic candidate for governor since Ann Richards in 1990. Additionally, Abbott had a strong approval rating on election day, with 55% of voters approving to 45% disapproving.[3] Beto O'Rourke, who gained national attention in 2018 for his unusually close and competitive campaign against Senator Ted Cruz, was widely viewed as a rising star in the Texas Democratic Party and potential challenger for Abbott, but a failed run for President of the United States in 2020 prompted criticisms of opportunism via Republican attempts to brand him as anti-law enforcement and his former stance and disavowed comments on guns.

Abbott won by 10.9%, a slightly smaller margin of victory than his 13.3% margin in 2018 in spite of a much more Republican national climate in 2022, making this the closest gubernatorial election in Texas since 2006, and the closest election of Abbott's entire political career since his first race for the Texas Supreme Court in 1998. Beto O'Rourke, meanwhile, performed 8.3% worse than his 2018 Senate run, but he still won the highest share for a Democratic gubernatorial candidate since Ann Richards received 45.9% in her unsuccessful reelection bid against George W. Bush in 1994. Abbott's raw vote total was less than his 4.65 million in 2018, while O'Rourke set a record of most raw votes for a Texas Democratic gubernatorial candidate at around 3.55 million, but it was also less than his 4.04 million vote total in the 2018 Senate race.

Abbott carried 235 out of 254 counties, flipping the heavily Hispanic counties of Culberson and Zapata and becoming the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to win the latter in the state's history (though Zapata had earlier voted Republican in the 2020 presidential election), while O'Rourke became the first Democratic gubernatorial candidate to win the county of Fort Bend since 1974. O'Rourke outperformed Joe Biden two years prior among Latino voters, though his performance with them was still worse than past nominees.

Republican primary

[edit]

On June 4, 2021, Texas Republican Party chairman Allen West announced his resignation as party chair.[4] West criticized Gov. Greg Abbott's handling of the COVID-19 pandemic in Texas.[5] The history of conflict between West and Abbott included a lawsuit by West and other Republicans challenging Abbott's extension of the early voting period in 2020, as well as a protest outside the Governor's Mansion over pandemic-related shutdowns as well as mask mandates.[6] On July 4, 2021, West announced that he would challenge Abbott in the 2022 gubernatorial primary.[7] Both West and fellow gubernatorial candidate Don Huffines were considered more conservative than Abbott.[8][9] On March 1, 2022, Abbott won the Republican primary by a smaller margin than in 2018.

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrawn

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Greg Abbott

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. Senators

State officials

Organizations

Don Huffines

U.S. Senators

U.S. representatives

Texas state representatives

Local officials

  • Don McLaughlin, mayor of Uvalde (2014–present)[44]

Individuals

Allen West

Texas state representatives

Individuals

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Greg
Abbott 		Don
Huffines 		Ricky Lynn
Perry 		Chad
Prather 		Allen
West 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[49] February 25–28, 2022 1,040 (LV) ± 3.0% 62% 10% 2% 2% 15% 5%[b] 3%
Emerson College[50] February 21–22, 2022 522 (LV) ± 4.2% 61% 9% 3% 3% 12% 3%[c] 9%
UT Tyler[51] February 8–15, 2022 581 (LV) ± 4.4% 60% 3% 6% 3% 7% 5%[d] 15%
YouGov/UT[52] January 28 – February 7, 2022 375 (LV) ± 5.1% 60% 14% 5% 3% 15% 3%[e] –
Paradigm Partners (R)[53][A] January 31, 2022 1,542 (LV) ± 2.5% 34% 5% 6% 6% 43% 3%[f] 4%
UT Tyler[54] January 18–25, 2022 514 (LV) ± 5.1% 59% 4% 4% 2% 6% 4%[g] 20%
YouGov/UH[55] January 14–24, 2022 490 (LV) ± 3.7% 58% 7% 3% 2% 11% 2%[h] 17%
Paradigm Partners (R)[56][A] January 9, 2022 1,486 (LV) ± 2.5% 33% 5% 12% 3% 38% 3%[i] 7%
Paradigm Partners (R)[56][A] December 16, 2021 447 (LV) ± 4.5% 33% 2% 15% 1% 35% – 14%
Paradigm Partners (R)[56][A] November 30, 2021 – (LV) – 42% 3% – 2% 36% – 17%
UT Tyler[57] November 9–16, 2021 520 (LV) ± 4.7% 65% 3% – 6% 6% 3% 18%
Paradigm Partners (R)[56][A] November 11, 2021 – (LV) – 43% 3% – 2% 33% – 19%
YouGov/UT/TT[58] October 22–31, 2021 554 (RV) ± 4.2% 56% 7% – 4% 13% 4% 16%
YouGov/TXHPF[59] October 14–27, 2021 405 (LV) ± 4.9% 61% 4% – 3% 13% – 19%
UT Tyler[60] September 7–14, 2021 427 (LV) ± 6.1% 70% 15% – – – 15% –
431 (LV) ± 6.0% 65% – – – 20% 15% –
Victory Insights (R)[61] July 22–24, 2021 400 (RV) ± 4.9% 80% – – – 20% – –
Paradigm Partners (R)[56][A] June 30, 2021 – (LV) – 73% – – – 17% – 10%
UT Tyler[62] June 22–29, 2021 440 (LV) ± 5.4% 77% 12% – – – 11% –
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Greg
Abbott 		Don
Huffines 		Sid
Miller 		Allen
West 		Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[63][B] June 14–17, 2021 446 (LV) ± 4.6% 69% 3% 3% 13% –

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Abbott
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results[64]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Greg Abbott (incumbent) 1,299,059 66.48%
Republican Allen West 239,557 12.26%
Republican Don Huffines 234,138 11.98%
Republican Chad Prather 74,173 3.80%
Republican Ricky Lynn Perry 61,424 3.14%
Republican Kandy Kaye Horn 23,605 1.21%
Republican Paul Belew 11,387 0.58%
Republican Danny Harrison 10,829 0.55%
Total votes 1,954,172 100%

Democratic primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]
  • Jack Daniel Foster Jr., teacher[14]
  • R. Star Locke, veteran[14]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Beto O'Rourke

U.S. Senators

U.S. representatives

Local official

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers and other media

Polling

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Inocencio
Barrientez 		Michael
Cooper 		Joy
Diaz 		Jack
Foster Jr. 		Deirdre
Gilbert 		Star
Locke 		Beto
O'Rourke 		Rich
Wakeland 		Other Undecided
Emerson College[50] February 21–22, 2022 388 (LV) ± 4.9% 1% 5% 4% – – – 78% 2% – 11%
UT Tyler[51] February 8–15, 2022 479 (LV) ± 4.9% 2% 3% 4% 2% 2% 2% 68% 2% – 14%
YouGov/UT[52] January 28 – February 7, 2022 348 (LV) ± 5.3% 2% 1% 2% – – – 93% 1% 1% –
UT Tyler[54] January 18–25, 2022 459 (LV) ± 5.4% 1% 6% 4% 2% 1% 1% 58% 0% – 27%
YouGov/UH[55] January 14–24, 2022 616 (LV) ± 3.3% 3% 4% 3% – – – 73% 1% – 16%
YouGov/UT/TT[58] October 22–31, 2021 436 (RV) ± 4.7% – – – – – – 70% – 5% 25%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
O'Rourke:
  •   O'Rourke—>90%
  •   O'Rourke—80–90%
  •   O'Rourke—70–80%
  •   O'Rourke—60–70%
  •   O'Rourke—50–60%
  •   O'Rourke—40–50%
Wakeland:
  •   Wakeland—40–50%
Barrientez:
  •   Barrientez—50–60%
No vote:
  •   No vote
Democratic primary results[64]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Beto O'Rourke 983,182 91.41%
Democratic Joy Diaz 33,622 3.13%
Democratic Michael Cooper 32,673 3.04%
Democratic Rich Wakeland 13,237 1.23%
Democratic Inocencio Barrientez 12,887 1.20%
Total votes 1,075,601 100%

Green primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Delilah Barrios, environmental activist[95]

Libertarian convention

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]
  • Mark Jay Tippetts, attorney, former Lago Vista city councilman, and nominee for governor in 2018[96]

Withdrew/disqualified

[edit]

Independents and other parties

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Declared

[edit]

Disqualified

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[106] Likely R March 4, 2022
Inside Elections[107] Solid R July 22, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[108] Likely R June 29, 2022
Politico[109] Likely R April 1, 2022
RCP[110] Lean R January 10, 2022
Fox News[111] Likely R May 12, 2022
538[112] Solid R September 21, 2022
Elections Daily[113] Likely R November 7, 2022

Debates

[edit]
2022 Texas gubernatorial general election debates
No. Date Host Moderators Link Republican Democratic
Key:

 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn

Greg Abbott Beto O'Rourke
1 Sep. 30, 2022 KXAN-TV Sally Hernandez
Gromer Jeffers
Steve Spriester 		KXAN-TV[114] P P

Endorsements

[edit]
Greg Abbott (R)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

Governors

State officials

Newspapers

Organizations

Beto O'Rourke (D)

U.S. Executive Branch officials

U.S. senators

U.S. representatives

State officials

County officials

Local officials

Individuals

Labor unions

Organizations

Newspapers

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Greg
Abbott (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Other
[j] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics[168] October 3–19, 2022 October 25, 2022 52.8% 43.5% 3.7% Abbott +9.3
FiveThirtyEight[169] June 14, 2021 – October 25, 2022 October 25, 2022 51.4% 42.9% 5.7% Abbott +8.5
Average 52.1% 43.2% 4.7% Abbott +8.9

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Greg
Abbott (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Other Undecided
CWS Research (R)[170][C] November 2–5, 2022 786 (LV) ± 3.5% 53% 42% 2% 3%
UT Tyler[171] October 17–24, 2022 1,330 (RV) ± 2.9% 47% 44% 7%[k] 1%
973 (LV) ± 3.4% 50% 44% 5%[l] 1%
Emerson College[172] October 17–19, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 42% 1%[m] 4%
53% 44% 3%[n] –
Siena College[173] October 16–19, 2022 649 (LV) ± 5.1% 52% 43% 2%[o] 4%
Beacon Research (D)[174][D] October 15–19, 2022 1,264 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 45% – –
BSP Research/UT[175][E] October 11–18, 2022 1,400 (RV) ± 2.6% 46% 42% 3%[p] 9%
YouGov/UT[176] October 7–17, 2022 833 (LV) ± 3.3% 54% 43% 4%[q] 2%
Civiqs[177] October 8–11, 2022 791 (LV) ± 4.0% 52% 44% 3%[r] 0%
Marist College[178] October 3–6, 2022 1,058 (RV) ± 4.4% 49% 45% 1%[s] 5%
898 (LV) ± 4.8% 52% 44% 1%[t] 4%
Quinnipiac University[179] September 22–26, 2022 1,327 (LV) ± 2.7% 53% 46% 2%[u] –
Emerson College[180] September 20–22, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 42% 4%[v] 5%
ActiVote[181] June 23 – September 21, 2022 323 (LV) ± 6.0% 47% 40% 12%[w] –
Siena College[182] September 14–18, 2022 651 (LV) ± 4.4% 50% 43% 2%[x] 5%
Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation[183] September 6–15, 2022 1,172 (LV) ± 2.9% 51% 44% 2%[y] 3%
UT Tyler[184] September 7–13, 2022 1,268 (RV) ± 2.9% 47% 38% 9%[z] 2%
Data for Progress (D)[185] September 2–9, 2022 712 (LV) ± 4.0% 50% 45% 2%[aa] 3%
Echelon Insights[186] August 31 – September 7, 2022 813 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 46% – 6%
YouGov/UT[187] August 26 – September 6, 2022 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 45% 40% 4%[ab] 11%
YouGov/UH/TSU[188] August 11–29, 2022 1,312 (LV) ± 2.7% 49% 42% 2%[ac] 7%
UT Tyler[189] August 1–7, 2022 1,384 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 39% 13%[ad] 1%
1,215 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 42% 9%[ae] 1%
YouGov/UH[190] June 27 – July 7, 2022 1,169 (RV) ± 2.9% 47% 42% 2%[af] 9%
1,006 (LV) ± 3.1% 49% 44% 2%[af] 5%
YouGov/CBS News[191] June 22–27, 2022 548 (LV) ± 6.6% 49% 41% 4% 6%
YouGov/UT[192] June 16–24, 2022 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 45% 39% 6%[ag] 10%
YouGov/PerryUndem[193] June 15–24, 2022 2,000 (RV) ± 2.2% 47% 43% 3% 5%
Quinnipiac University[179] June 9–13, 2022 1,257 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 43% 2% 5%
Blueprint Polling (D)[194] June 8–10, 2022 603 (LV) ± 4.0% 56% 37% – 7%
UT Tyler[195] May 2–10, 2022 1,232 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 39% 14%[ah] 2%
YouGov/UT[196] April 14–22, 2022 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 37% 7% 9%
YouGov/TXHPF[197] March 18–28, 2022 1,139 (LV) ± 2.9% 50% 42% 3%[ai] 5%
Texas Lyceum[198] March 11–20, 2022 926 (RV) ± 3.2% 42% 40% 7% 11%
Emerson College[50] February 21–22, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 45% – 3%
UT Tyler[51] February 8–15, 2022 1,188 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 38% 16% 1%
Climate Nexus[199] February 1–9, 2022 806 (LV) ± 3.6% 45% 40% 7% 8%
YouGov/UT[52] January 28 – February 7, 2022 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 37% 6% 11%
UT Tyler[54] January 18–25, 2022 1,072 (RV) ± 3.5% 47% 36% 16% 1%
YouGov/UH[55] January 14–24, 2022 – (LV)[aj] –[aj] 48% 43% 3%[ak] 6%
Quinnipiac University[200] December 2–6, 2021 1,224 (RV) ± 2.8% 52% 37% 4% 6%
UT Tyler[57] November 9–16, 2021 1,106 (RV) ± 3.2% 45% 39% 16% –
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[201] November 9, 2021 884 (RV) ± 3.3% 40% 39% 5% 7%
854 (LV) ± 3.4% 43% 44% 5% 6%
YouGov/UT/TT[58] October 22–31, 2021 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 37% 7% 10%
YouGov/TXHPF[59] October 14–27, 2021 1,402 (RV) ± 3.1% 43% 42% 3%[al] 12%
UT Tyler[60] September 7–14, 2021 1,148 (RV) ± 3.7% 42% 37% 21% –
UT Tyler[62] June 22–29, 2021 1,090 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 33% 22% –
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[202][F] June 14–17, 2021 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 52% 42% – 6%
Hypothetical polling

Greg Abbott vs. Julián Castro

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Greg
Abbott (R) 		Julián
Castro (D) 		Other Undecided
Redfield & Wilton Strategies[201] November 9, 2021 884 (RV) ± 3.3% 43% 35% 4% 9%
854 (LV) ± 3.4% 45% 39% 4% 8%

Greg Abbott vs. Beto O'Rourke with Matthew McConaughey as an independent

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Greg
Abbott (R) 		Beto
O'Rourke (D) 		Matthew
McConaughey (I) 		Other Undecided
Echelon Insights[186] August 31 – September 7, 2022 813 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 39% 13% – 6%
UT Tyler[57] November 9–16, 2021 1,106 (RV) ± 3.2% 37% 26% 27% 10% –
YouGov/TXHPF[59] October 14–27, 2021 1,402 (RV) ± 3.1% 40% 37% 9% 2%[am] 12%

Greg Abbott vs. Don Huffines

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Greg
Abbott (R) 		Don
Huffines 		Other
UT Tyler[62] June 22–29, 2021 1,090 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 22% 32%

Greg Abbott vs. Matthew McConaughey

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Greg
Abbott (R) 		Matthew
McConaughey 		Other
UT Tyler[57] November 9–16, 2021 1,106 (RV) ± 3.2% 35% 43% 22%
UT Tyler[60] September 7–14, 2021 1,148 (RV) ± 3.7% 35% 44% 21%
UT Tyler[62] June 22–29, 2021 1,090 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 38% 23%
UT Tyler[203] April 6–13, 2021 1,124 (RV) ± 2.9% 33% 45% 22%

Greg Abbott vs. generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Greg
Abbott (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[204][G] September 15–22, 2020 726 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 34% 20%

Greg Abbott vs. generic opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Greg
Abbott (R) 		Generic
Opponent 		Undecided
Quinnipiac University[205] September 24–27, 2021 863 (RV) ± 3.3% 42% 51% 7%
Quinnipiac University[206] June 15–21, 2021 1,099 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 48% 6%

Results

[edit]
2022 Texas gubernatorial election[207]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Greg Abbott (incumbent) 4,437,099 54.76% −1.05%
Democratic Beto O'Rourke 3,553,656 43.86% +1.35%
Libertarian Mark Tippetts 81,932 1.01% −0.68%
Green Delilah Barrios 28,584 0.35% N/A
American Solidarity Jacqueline Abernathy 1,243 0.02% N/A
Total votes 8,102,908 100.00% N/A
Turnout 8,102,908 45.85%
Registered electors 17,672,143
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Abbott won 25 of 38 congressional districts.[208]

District Abbott O'Rourke Representative
1st 77.3% 21.7% Louie Gohmert (117th Congress)
Nathaniel Moran (118th Congress)
2nd 62.2% 36.4% Dan Crenshaw
3rd 59.2% 39.5% Van Taylor (117th Congress)
Keith Self (118th Congress)
4th 65.7% 33.2% Pat Fallon
5th 63.4% 35.4% Lance Gooden
6th 65.5% 34.3% Jake Ellzey
7th 35.2% 63.3% Lizzie Fletcher
8th 66.6% 32.2% Kevin Brady (117th Congress)
Morgan Luttrell (118th Congress)
9th 23% 75.5% Al Green
10th 61.5% 37.1% Michael McCaul
11th 73.7% 25% August Pfluger
12th 59.9% 38.6% Kay Granger
13th 74.7% 24% Ronny Jackson
14th 66.5% 32.1% Randy Weber
15th 52.4% 46.4% Vicente Gonzalez (117th Congress)
Monica De La Cruz (118th Congress)
16th 34.7% 63.7% Veronica Escobar
17th 64.8% 33.9% Pete Sessions
18th 25.2% 73.3% Sheila Jackson Lee
19th 76.6% 22.1% Jodey Arrington
20th 32.4% 66.2% Joaquín Castro
21st 60.8% 37.8% Chip Roy
22nd 59.5% 39.1% Troy Nehls
23rd 54.5% 44.1% Tony Gonzales
24th 57.6% 41% Beth Van Duyne
25th 67.9% 30.9% Roger Williams
26th 61.3% 37.4% Michael Burgess
27th 64% 34.7% Michael Cloud
28th 46.4% 51.7% Henry Cuellar
29th 29.9% 68.4% Sylvia Garcia
30th 22.1% 76.9% Eddie Bernice Johnson (117th Congress)
Jasmine Crockett (118th Congress)
31st 61.3% 37.2% John Carter
32nd 34.4% 64.2% Colin Allred
33rd 25.8% 73% Marc Veasey
34th 42.7% 55.9% Mayra Flores (117th Congress)
Vicente Gonzalez (118th Congress)
35th 25.7% 72.7% Lloyd Doggett (117th Congress)
Greg Casar (118th Congress)
36th 67.4% 31.2% Brian Babin
37th 21.4% 77.2% Lloyd Doggett
38th 60.6% 37.9% Wesley Hunt

Analysis

[edit]
Map of MECE (mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive) partition of Texas into 12 regions.[209]

Texas Democrats hoped for Beto O'Rourke to achieve an upset over the incumbent Greg Abbott, which did not materialize. Abbott won by 10.9%, down from 13.3% in 2018. Abbott's margin was slightly larger than aggregate polling, but virtually in line with the last poll conducted. He won the vast majority of counties (235 out of 254), mostly rural, and by significantly wide margins. In particular, 34 counties, mainly in West Texas and the Texas panhandle, gave Abbott over 90% of the vote. This was the most by any Texas Republican gubernatorial candidate, and the most for any candidate since Democrat Allan Shivers' 1954 re-election.[210]

Abbott won the three largest metro areas in the state, which include Dallas–Fort Worth–Arlington in North Texas, Houston–The Woodlands–Sugar Land in Southeast Texas, and San Antonio–New Braunfels in South-Central Texas. He also won all of the state's mid-sized metro areas outside of the Rio Grande Valley, which include Corpus Christi along the coastal bend; Waco, Killeen–Temple–Fort Hood, and Bryan–College Station in Central Texas; Beaumont–Port Arthur, Tyler and Longview in East Texas; Lubbock, Abilene, and Midland-Odessa in West Texas; and Amarillo in the Panhandle. Abbott also won an urban county, Tarrant, home to Fort Worth and did well in the suburban counties of the Texas Triangle, winning Brazoria, Galveston, and Montgomery counties around Houston; Comal and Guadalupe around San Antonio; Collin, Denton, Ellis, Kaufman, and Rockwall in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex; and Williamson in Greater Austin.[211]

In DFW and Austin specifically, Republican strength has declined somewhat in these metros, with Abbott carrying Collin, Denton, Tarrant, and Williamson by 10.07%, 12.81%, 4.11%, and 0.62% respectively, down from his margins of 19.48%, 20.60%, 10.64%, and 10.71% from 2018. Excluding the largest metro areas, Abbott improved on his 2018 margins.

O'Rourke, despite his loss, did best in most of Texas's urban centers. He carried Travis, home to the state capital Austin (72.6% - 25.9%), his best performance in the state; El Paso, his home county, 63.4% - 35%; Dallas (62.8% - 35.9%); Bexar, home to San Antonio (57.5% - 41.1%); and Harris, home to Houston (54% - 44.5%). He also carried Hays, a rapidly growing county south of Austin which contains San Marcos and Texas State University along with fast-growing cities of Kyle, and Buda by 54.5% - 43.7%. Despite improving on 2018 nominee Lupe Valdez's margins in these counties, he did worse in all of them compared to his Senate campaign in 2018, and, excluding Travis and Hays, worse than Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential race. The only county O'Rourke flipped was suburban Fort Bend outside Houston, which voted for Abbott by 0.2% in 2018, but voted for O'Rourke by 4.68% in this election.

Outside the Texas Triangle and Trans Pecos, the only other area O'Rourke won was heavily Hispanic South Texas along the U.S. border with Mexico. His performance was worse than Valdez's and his own from 2018, which continued the trend of rural Hispanic voters away from the Democrats towards Republicans, but he did outperform Biden from 2020. Counties that voted for Biden by single digits like Duval (2.61%), Starr (5%), and Maverick (9.45%); voted for O'Rourke 11.02%, 17.85%, and 17.68% respectively. Despite this improvement from the 2020 presidential race, Abbott flipped two heavily Hispanic counties, Zapata and Culberson (in the Trans Pecos).

Exit polls according to NBC News showed Abbott winning male (58% - 41%) and female voters (51% - 48%), whites (66% - 33%), and other races (67% - 31%), voters over 45 (60% - 39%), college graduates (52% - 47%) and non-college graduates (56% - 43%), and voters who denied the results of the 2020 presidential election (94% - 5%). O'Rourke won black voters (84% - 15%), Latinos (57% - 40%), Asians (52% - 48%), voters between 18 and 44 (54% - 44%), Independents (49%-47%) and moderates (60% - 38%).[212][213][214]

Fox News Voter Analysis exit polls showed Abbott winning male (59%-39%) and female voters (51%-48%); whites (68%-30%) and other races and ethnicities (53%-42%); voters over 45 (61%-37%); college graduates (54%-44%), non-college graduates (56%-43%); white men (70%-28%); white women (67%-32%). O'Rourke won African Americans (81%-18%), Latinos (56%-42%); African American men (76%-24%); African American women (85%-13%) and Latina women (61%-37%). O'Rourke also won Latino men (55%-45%).[215]

Voter demographics

[edit]

Voter demographic data was collected by CNN. The voter survey is based on exit polls.[216] There were 4,327 total respondents.

2022 Texas gubernatorial election (CNN)[216]
Demographic subgroup Abbott O'Rourke % of
total vote
Ideology
Liberals 10 89 22
Moderates 38 60 36
Conservatives 91 9 42
Party
Democrats 3 97 30
Republicans 95 5 41
Independents 47 49 29
Age
18–24 years old 31 67 9
25–29 years old 39 61 6
30–39 years old 47 50 15
40–49 years old 53 45 16
50–64 years old 61 38 27
65 and older 62 37 27
Gender
Men 58 41 49
Women 51 48 51
Marital status
Married 63 36 63
Unmarried 45 54 37
Gender by marital status
Married men 64 35 33
Married women 61 38 29
Unmarried men 49 49 17
Unmarried women 42 58 21
Race/ethnicity
White 66 33 62
Black 15 84 12
Latino 40 57 21
Asian 48 52 3
Other 67 31 2
Gender by race
White men 69 30 30
White women 64 36 32
Black men 22 78 6
Black women 9 90 6
Latino men 45 53 10
Latina women 36 62 11
Other racial/ethnic groups 57 42 5
Education
Never attended college 60 40 12
Some college education 53 45 28
Associate degree 57 41 15
Bachelor's degree 54 44 26
Advanced degree 49 50 18
Education by race
White college graduates 60 39 31
White no college degree 72 27 31
Non-white college graduates 34 65 14
Non-white no college degree 35 63 25
Education by gender/race
White women with college degrees 57 42 15
White women without college degrees 70 29 17
White men with college degrees 63 36 16
White men without college degrees 75 24 14
Non-white 35 64 39
Issue regarded as most important
Crime 58 36 11
Inflation 76 22 28
Immigration 88 12 15
Gun policy 32 67 12
Abortion 19 80 27
Abortion should be
Legal 23 75 54
Illegal 92 7 43
First-time midterm election voter
Yes 43 57 14
No 55 44 86
2020 presidential vote
Trump 97 2 50
Biden 4 96 41
Other N/A N/A 3
Did not vote N/A N/A 5
Biden legitimately won in 2020
Yes 25 74 54
No 94 5 42
Area type
Urban 49 50 42
Suburban 56 43 47
Rural 66 32 11

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Harrison with 3%; Belew and Horn with 1%
  3. ^ Harrison with 3%; Belew and Horn with 0%
  4. ^ Horn with 2%; Belew and Harrison with 1%
  5. ^ Someone else with 2%, Horn with 1%
  6. ^ Belew, Harrison, and Horn with 1%
  7. ^ Horn with 2%; Belew and Harrison with 1%
  8. ^ Harrison and Horn with 1%; Belew with 0%
  9. ^ Belew, Harrison, and Horn with 1%
  10. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; Tippetts (L) with 2%; Barrios (G) with 1%
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Tippetts (L) with 2%; Barrios (G) with 1%
  13. ^ Tippetts (L) with 1%; Barrios (G) with <1%
  14. ^ Tippetts (L) with 2%; Barrios (G) with 1%
  15. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  17. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Tippetts and Barrios with 1%
  18. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  19. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  20. ^ "Another party's candidate" with 1%
  21. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; "Refused" with 1%
  22. ^ Tippetts (L) with 2%; "Someone else" with 2%
  23. ^ Tippetts with 9%; Barrios with 3%
  24. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%; "Not going to vote" with 1%
  25. ^ Barrios and Tippetts with 1%
  26. ^ "Someone else" with 6%; Barrios and Tippets with 3%
  27. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%
  28. ^ Tippetts with 2% and Barrios with 2%
  29. ^ Tippetts with 1% and Barrios with 1%
  30. ^ "Someone else" with 7%; Barrios and Tippetts with 3%
  31. ^ "Someone else" with 4%; Tippetts with 3%; Barrios with 2%
  32. ^ a b Tippetts with 2%; Barrios with 0%
  33. ^ "Someone else" with 3%; Tippetts with 2%; Barrios with 1%
  34. ^ "Someone else" with 8%; Barrios and Tippetts with 3%
  35. ^ Tippetts with 2%, Barrios with 1%
  36. ^ a b Subsample of likely general election voters from a survey of 1,400 registered voters (overall margin of error ± 2.2% including design effect)
  37. ^ Tippetts with 2%; Barrios with 1%
  38. ^ Behrman/Jewell with 2%, Barrios with 1%
  39. ^ Behrman/Jewell and Barrios with 1%

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e f Poll conducted for West's campaign
  2. ^ Poll conducted for Abbott's campaign
  3. ^ Poll conducted for the Defend Texas Liberty PAC.
  4. ^ Poll conducted for the Democratic Policy Institute, a non-profit organization advocating for progressive causes.
  5. ^ Poll sponsored by Univision.
  6. ^ Poll conducted for Abbott's campaign
  7. ^ Poll sponsored by the Defend Students Action Fund

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[edit]

Official campaign websites

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