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Talk:2009–10 Australian region cyclone season

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Location Of Advisories

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Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook Jakarta \\ Perth \\ Darwin \\ Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone High Seas Warning Jakarta \\ Perth 1 \\ Perth 2 \\ Darwin \\ Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin Perth 1 \\ Perth 2 \\ Darwin \\ Brisbane
Main Pages Jakarta \\ BoM \\ JTWC
Archives BoM \\ Jakarta

JTWC:

ABIO10 \\ ABPW10
Cyclone 1 \\ Cyclone 2 \\ Cyclone 3
Unisys Archives
Best track
Archives

Season Summary

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U number Date assigned Name Warning center Final TCR
01 2009-12-07 Laurence D/P http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/pdf/laurence09.pdf
02 2010-01-01 N/A D/P
03 2010-01-01 Edzani J/P/R
04 2010-01-01 NA P
05 2010-01-14 Neville D/B
06 2010-01-18 Magda P http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/pdf/magda.pdf
07 2010-01-20 Olga N/PNG/B
08 2010-02-22 Low D (inland)
09 2010-03-11 Ului N/PNG/B
10 2010-03-22 Imani P/R
11 2010-03-23 Paul D
12 2010-04-02 Robyn J/P http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/pdf/robyn.pdf
13 2010-04-19 Sean J/P http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/pdf/sean10.pdf

So what happened to 08U?

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My guess would be that it was the Perth Low of 2-11 Feb.--Keith Edkins ( Talk ) 19:13, 14 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

What about the monsoon low that battered Queensland with those masses of rain? --Matthiasb (talk) 08:41, 18 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
When were the monsoon lows? as if i remember correctly the Darwin low went into Queensland.Jason Rees (talk) 17:37, 18 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
I was thinking on this event which I covered in the German wikinews with these articles (used sources are all English language). The heavy rain was on March 1st and 2nd mainly. Mostly affected was the area which could be also affected by torrential rains caused by Ului. Actually the more south Ului makes landfall if he does the more water will do down into the Murray-Darling river system. (I also wonder why the event didn't trigger an article on those Queensland floods.) --Matthiasb (talk) 19:20, 18 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
That event was caused by remnants of Olga but the Melbourne (Victoria/S NSW really) was the remnant low level moisture (See: [1]). Bidgee (talk) 13:27, 22 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
No, Olga has no conjunction with these Qld heavy rain falls in early March – there's a one month discrepancy. We'll have to wait for the March monthly weather reports to find out more since it wasn't covered on the BoM severe weather events webpage. --Matthiasb (talk) 09:21, 2 April 2010 (UTC)[reply]
It would have been helped by the remnant moisture from Olga rather then the low itself which would have weaken before the March event. Bidgee (talk) 10:04, 2 April 2010 (UTC)[reply]
This would link the Darwin low and the monsoon low youre on about we just need to figure out if it is 08U.Jason Rees (talk) 20:05, 18 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
The 3-day TWO from 28 February 4:45Z indicates that is minimal pressure was about 998 hPa; it also indicates that the system wandered into the SW of Qld and was indeed the system involved in the Qld rainfalls – that is if the low mentioned in these TWOs is constantly the same. --Matthiasb (talk) 10:13, 4 April 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Darwin Low 08U continued

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The issues with that low in the article aren't yet completely settled. In a few minutes I will change the one and only sentence

On 22 January, TCWC Darwin reported that tropical low 08U had formed over the Northern Territory .

and correct the date; it seems that 08U was the system causing the 2010 Queensland floods, however I am not sure about the 2010 Victorian storms. In that article there is a references on

tropical air masses coming down from QLD,

but one (in which the forecaster described the event as mini cyclone) does not support this; in fact it states

Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Scott Williams described the weather as a "super cell storm"

and to the end

"It's pretty much the whole state. We're under a major tropical air mass with a low pressure system coming in from the west."

On the other hand, the article states

The storms developed from a low pressure system to the west of Victoria, generating thunderstorms during the morning of 6 March,

however the referenced source, the BoM event summary on the Melbourne event, wasn't cited exactly – actually it indirectly supports what BoM forecaster Williams said to press:

A developing low pressure system with an associated low pressure trough to the west of Victoria combined with low level moisture and upper level forcing to generate showers and thunderstorms in the west of the State during the morning which spread eastward and intensified during the early afternoon.

However no word fell on the origin of the tropical and moisture air mass.

Another unsettled issue is the duration in the infobox. While we do not have a source confirming it formed on 22 February (the first archived TWO is from 24 February) we have archived TWOs from dates after 24 Februar indicating it still existed as late as 28 February (each of them issued on 2:15 CST):

Date (Link) Statement
on location on movement
24 February A weak Tropical Low, 1005 hPa, is located over land over the southern Darwin-Daly District. The low is expected to move slowly southwest and remain over land during the next three days, however a more westward track could move the Tropical Low into the southern Timor Sea.
25 February A Tropical Low, 1005 hPa, is located over land in the northern Victoria River District. The low is expected to remain over land during the next three days, initially slow moving and then moving southeast across the Territory during the weekend.
26 February A Tropical Low, 1004 hPa, is located over land in the northern Victoria River District. The low is expected to remain over land during the next three days, initially slow moving and then moving southeast across the Territory during the weekend.
27 February A Tropical Low, 999 hPa, is located well inland over the southern Victoria River District. The low is expected over land during the next three days, moving slowly south to southeast across the Territory into southwest Qld.
28 February A Tropical Low, 998 hPa, located well inland over central Australia is expected to remain over land during the next three days, moving slowly southeastwards into southwestern Qld.

I'll try to study the Monthly Weather Reviews for QLD, NT and VIC for late February and early March later this week to find further information. --Matthiasb (talk) 10:21, 1 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]

See page two of the NSW Monthly Weather Review which states

In the first two days of the month, a monsoonal low pressure system over inland Queensland brought high rainfall to the northern regions of the state. This moved south over the following days, bringing strong falls in western regions, before interacting with a low pressure trough on the 7th. The resultant system brought very heavy rainfall to the southern half of the state between the 7th and 8th, particularly in the Riverina region. (Synoptic summary)

The monsoonal low was the remnants of Olga and/or 08U but would need to look at the synoptic charts and satellite images (Vis, IR and water vapour) which could be a problem since I can't find an archive which goes back to late Feb to early March. Bidgee (talk) 10:56, 1 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Well I think we can rule out remnants of TC Olga – that system dissipated on month earlier, end of January (which caused some floodings in Northern Queensland in late January/early February). We're trying to resolve a late February/early March event, aren't we? --Matthiasb (talk) 11:08, 1 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Yep, I now agree. Found an synoptic archive which shows the low (possibly 08U) in the top end of the NT heading into W QLD then moving S/SW into NSW before dissolving into the low pressure system in SA on 5 March. Bidgee (talk) 11:14, 1 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Concerning the SW Qld flood this PDF might be a help as well (didn't had the time to look in yet, will also later put the link to that article also) but IIRC Jason Rees checked it per email with the BoM that the Darwin low mentioned in the TWOs listed in the table is 08U. Though it seems that we don't have BT data available. --Matthiasb (talk) 13:37, 1 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]
So I looked into the PDF and there we have in the beginning of chapter 2 on page 1:
Increased monsoonal westerly winds through the Arafura Sea during the 21st of February assisted to deepen the monsoon trough extending across the north of Australia and caused shower and thunderstorm activity to increase in the area. The trough deepened further during the next day or two, causing a low to develop over the Northern Territory by the 23rd of February. The tropical low remained near stationary until the 26th of February before drifting southwards and intensifying ahead of a deep layered trough system from the west. By the 1st of March the system had entered far southwest Queensland and tracked eastwards to be just west of Charleville by the afternoon of the 2nd of March. Widespread heavy rainfall across the Northern Territory and a large area of southern Queensland resulted causing record breaking, river flooding.
So we can set the date of forming of the low on 23 February,certainly local time can definitely make the conjunction with the SW Qld floods and also with the Melbourne event though we don't know yet when the system actually lost its tropical characteristics and/or merged with the cold air low causing the Melbourne event. --Matthiasb (talk) 14:07, 1 November 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Updates needed and some other flaws

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According to the article Neville's last action was Magda is totally unsourced – where comes the post-analysis info from? Are the two children on the Solomons still currently missing? Another problem is with several webcited maps and warnings from the BoM. Actually these are copy vios since the BoM website has a noarchive tag and those maps and warnings had been uploaded to a third party website before webciting them (I don't mean the NOAA website but f.ex. this one). --Matthiasb (talk) 08:41, 18 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Umm the maps used on the season article dont come from bom and i dont believe we archive the BOM maps. Also the BOM warnings arent a copy vio as most do come through the NOAA website.Jason Rees (talk) 13:33, 18 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Well I maybe misstated: we must not upload any BoM material to a free webspace hoster and webcite that (as happened in the link provided above), that is a copyvio. I think somewhere was a policy that copyvios should not linked to. --19:00, 18 March 2010 (UTC)
The BoM Copyright Notice says that "Apart from any fair dealing for purposes of study, research, criticism and review, as permitted under copyright legislation, no part of these services may be reproduced, re-used or redistributed for any commercial purpose", which would seem to basically put us in the clear as we are not commercial (and may be fair dealing for purposes of study & research), but "Any permitted reproduction, including fair dealing, must: * acknowledge the Bureau of Meteorology as the source of any such material reproduced; * any reproduction made of the material must include a copy of the original copyright and disclaimer" so maybe we should add some extra lines to that effect to the bulletins which don't get mirrored on the NOAA site?--Keith Edkins ( Talk ) 17:22, 19 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
Also I've just noticed that the Technical Bulletins on the NOAA server have a "Copyright Commonwealth of Australia" line, so are excluded from the General Disclaimer "The information on government servers are in the public domain, unless specifically annotated otherwise".--Keith Edkins ( Talk ) 20:20, 19 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
All of the WebCited items currently list the BoM as the source by default, if briefly:
IDQP0005 
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
...

IDQ20016
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
 
SOLOMON ISLANDS ADVISORY
...

AXAU21 ABRF 141826
IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
...
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
...
Would this be enough? The use of the free webspace is only because WebCite can't do it directly (noarchive/nocache tag, as mentioned earlier), and partly because one of us might miss a bulletin and the (automatic?) archiver is there incase that happens. It all adds up to not losing vital information about the history of TCs; I'm sure that's fine. -- RattleMan 06:05, 20 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Olga and the missing children

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I've done some extensive searching online and have only found one story on it, I believe one of the editor's here said that it was in there local newspaper, would it be possible that you could dig (find) it up and use it as a cited source? Bidgee (talk) 03:45, 24 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

I dont have time now to add it but look through the links to the offical solomon islands reports that i stuck in CB's Sandbox and it should be there.Jason Rees (talk) 14:26, 24 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
I could have sworn it was in the newspaper, but it being the only source, and on the other side of the world, I doubt it was true. And I do not know if I could possibly thinking I saw it, but somewhere I had read it, but a quick search on the newspaper's website doesn't bring it up. Syntheticalconnections (talk) 23:26, 24 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
As i said before the deaths are true, the Solmon islands Sitreps linked to in Cbs sandbox back me up.Jason Rees (talk) 23:54, 24 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]
I've got no doubts about it but just would be good to cite a source or two. Bidgee (talk) 02:59, 25 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Where are the advices? Who updates this?

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Whoever gets the advices how ever your special way from that special archive when WebCite isn't working get to it! Advice number 7 is out! Syntheticalconnections (talk) 16:11, 27 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Keith has an automatic archiver that archives the bulletins for him from all the NOAA and RSMC/TCWC's websites. So just add the links for now and when Webcites back they will be transferred to Webcite.Jason Rees (talk) 17:02, 27 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Season effects

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Well this section needs some updating. Can someone fix it? Narutolovehinata5 tccsdnew 04:04, 28 March 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Tropical Low 10U (Imani)

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The description in the article is kind of confusing. Why the system is described here when it was in the SW Indic? Why the RSMC Reunion took main responsibiliy when it wandered to the east? Okay, I know the answer, it is clear when looking on the track map. I'll try to fix that soon but please fix my Germish later on. --Matthiasb (talk) 16:22, 3 April 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Preseasonal Outlook

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Shouldn't the seasonal outlook included to the article, like the year before? (I just webcite'd it, as well es the seasonal TWO for North West Australia (updated), Northern Region, Coral Sea (Qld)) --Matthiasb (talk) 09:06, 5 April 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Me and Darren23 knocked a table up a while ago. The details just need filling out.Jason Rees (talk) 15:48, 6 April 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Retirements

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Laurence and Magda have just been retired. Replacement names are: Herman, Lincoln, Megan and Christine. Source: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/about/names.shtmlJason Rees (talk) 00:35, 14 June 2010 (UTC)[reply]

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