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2022 United States Senate election in Missouri

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2022 United States Senate election in Missouri
← 2016 November 8, 2022 2028 →
 
Nominee Eric Schmitt Trudy Busch Valentine
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,146,966 872,694
Percentage 55.43% 42.18%
Schmitt:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Busch Valentine:      50–60%      60–70%      70-80%      80–90%
U.S. senator before election

Roy Blunt
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Eric Schmitt
Republican

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The 2022 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with elections for all other Class 3 U.S. senators and elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, to select a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. Incumbent senator Roy Blunt, a Republican, did not seek a third term in office. Republican Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt won the open seat, defeating Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine.

Republican primary

[edit]

In March 2021, incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt announced that he would not seek reelection in 2022.[1]

Republican candidates for Blunt's Senate seat included former Gov. Eric Greitens,[2] U.S. Rep. Vicky Hartzler,[3] U.S. Rep. Billy Long,[4] and Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt.[5]

Schmitt's candidacy was backed by Missouri mega-donor Rex Sinquefield.[6] In the speech announcing his candidacy, Schmitt tied himself to Donald Trump and spoke against "the radical left".[6] He pledged to vote against Mitch McConnell for the Senate Republican party leadership position.[7]

In February 2022, Hartzler's campaign released a 30-second ad criticizing Lia Thomas, a transgender swimmer on the University of Pennsylvania women's team. In the ad, Hartzler said, "Women's sports are for women, not men pretending to be women", adding that, as Missouri's senator, she would not "look away while woke liberals destroy women's sports."[8]

U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley endorsed Hartzler in February 2022.[9] On July 8, 2022, Donald Trump refused to endorse Hartzler, saying, "I don't think she has what it takes to take on the Radical Left Democrats."[10][9]

Greitens was endorsed by former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, former U.S. Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke, and Fox News personality Kimberly Guilfoyle, the latter joining his campaign as a national chair.[11]

Many Republican officials, strategists, and donors maneuvered to stymie Greitens's attempted comeback, believing that the scandal surrounding his resignation as governor, his extramarital affair, and the sexual assault accusation against him would make him a weak general election candidate and lead to the loss of the Senate seat to a Democrat.[12][13] Notable Republican opponents of Greitens's candidacy included Karl Rove,[12] Johnny DeStefano,[13] and Senator Rick Scott, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.[14] After Greitens's ex-wife filed an affidavit against him in March 2022 accusing him of physical abuse, Senator Josh Hawley (who had endorsed Vicky Hartzler the previous month[15]) called upon Greitens to drop out.[16]

Republican megadonor Richard Uihlein funded a pro-Greitens super PAC ("Team PAC"), contributing $2.5 million to it.[12] Other Republican megadonors, including Rex Sinquefield and August Busch, aligned against Greitens.[13] A Republican-funded anti-Greitens super PAC ("Show Me Values PAC") was created in June 2022[17] and ran $6.2 million in ads through late July 2022.[18]

Republican officials, including Rick Scott, waged a campaign to persuade Donald Trump not to endorse Greitens.[14] On the eve of the primary election, Trump issued a statement endorsing "ERIC" in the primary, leaving it unclear which "Eric" he was endorsing.[14][19]

In the primary election, Schmitt prevailed with 45.7% of the vote; Hartzler received 22.1%, Greitens 18.9%, and Long 5%.[20]

U.S. Representative Vicky Hartzler was endorsed by Missouri Senator Josh Hawley and finished second.
Former governor Eric Greitens attempted to restart his political career, but finished third.
U.S. Representative Billy Long failed to gain traction and finished a distant fourth.

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Missed filing deadline

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]

The day before the primary, former president Donald Trump released a statement endorsing "ERIC". There were three candidates with the first name Eric running in the Republican primary: Eric Greitens, Eric McElroy, and Eric Schmitt. Trump's statement did not offer any clarification on whether this was an endorsement for one or multiple candidates, and when reached for comment by NBC News, Trump's office declined to clarify the endorsement.[52][53]

Eric Greitens

Federal officials

Individuals

Organizations

Vicky Hartzler

Federal officials

Individuals

Organizations

Eric Schmitt

Federal officials

State officials

State legislators

Individuals

Organizations

Debates

[edit]
Date Host Moderator Link(s) Participants
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Eric
Greitens 		Vicky
Hartzler 		Billy
Long 		Mark
McCloskey 		Dave
Schatz 		Eric
Schmitt
May 31, 2022 Greene County Republicans[80] Ginger Gooch
Darrell Moore 		A A P P P A

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Eric
Greitens 		Vicky
Hartzler 		Billy
Long 		Mark
McCloskey 		Dave
Schatz 		Eric
Schmitt 		Other
[a] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics[81] July 21 – 24, 2022 July 26, 2022 19.0% 24.5% 7.0% 5.0% 2.5% 33.0% 9.0% Schmitt +8.5
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Eric
Greitens 		Vicky
Hartzler 		Billy
Long 		Mark
McCloskey 		Dave
Schatz 		Eric
Schmitt 		Other Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[82] July 31 – August 1, 2022 1,078 (LV) ± 2.9% 21% 18% 5% 5% 3% 34% – 15%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[83][A] July 27–28, 2022 818 (LV) ± 3.4% 18% 22% 6% 5% 5% 34% 2% 8%
co/efficient (R)[84][B] July 27, 2022 891 (LV) ± 3.3% 17% 16% – – – 28% – –
SurveyUSA[85] July 24–27, 2022 787 (LV) ± 4.2% 20% 13% 8% 4% 3% 28% 4% 21%
Emerson College[86] July 21–23, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 16% 21% 5% 4% 2% 33% 1%[c] 17%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[87][A] July 23–24, 2022 802 (LV) ± 3.4% 18% 25% 8% 4% 3% 32% – 10%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[88] July 22–24, 2022 1,059 (LV) ± 2.9% 20% 24% 7% 5% 2% 27% – 16%
The Tarrance Group (R)[89][C] July 5–7, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 16% 24% 6% 4% 4% 28% – 18%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[90] June 28–30, 2022 1,072 (LV) ± 2.9% 24% 24% 6% 3% 4% 23% – 17%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[91][A] June 22–23, 2022 911 (LV) ± 3.1% 20% 19% 8% 5% 2% 25% – 21%
Emerson College[92] June 2–5, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 26% 16% 8% 4% 0% 20% 1%[d] 27%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[93] May 16–18, 2022 1,065 (LV) ± 2.9% 26% 23% 9% 3% 3% 19% – 17%
SurveyUSA[94] May 11–15, 2022 642 (LV) ± 5.0% 26% 11% 7% 2% 2% 17% 7%[e] 28%
Remington Research (R)[95][D] May 11–12, 2022 945 (LV) ± 3.0% 21% 23% – – – 29% 10% 17%
co/efficient (R)[96][E] May 2–4, 2022 806 (LV) ± 3.5% 26% 19% 7% 5% 2% 14% – 27%
NMB Research (R)[97][F] April 6–7, 2022 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 23% 20% 7% 3% 2% 25% 20% –
OnMessage Inc. (R)[98][G] April 4–6, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 22% 23% 11% 5% 2% 16% – 21%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[99] March 24–29, 2022 1,079 (LV) ± 3.0% 24% 25% 8% 2% 3% 22% – 16%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[100][A] March 22–23, 2022 941 (LV) ± 3.1% 21% 19% 9% 5% 3% 24% – 19%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[101] February 22–24, 2022 1,026 (LV) ± 3.0% 31% 17% 6% 5% 2% 23% 3% 15%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[102][A] February 16–17, 2022 917 (LV) ± 3.1% 25% 18% 8% 5% 2% 22% – 20%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[103][A] January 26–27, 2022 902 (LV) ± 3.1% 28% 19% 7% 5% 1% 23% – 17%
OnMessage Inc. (R)[98][G] January 2022 – (LV) – 30% 16% 9% 6% 1% 16% – 23%
CMA Strategies (R)[104][H] January 2022 400 (LV) ± 5.0% 27% 12% 6% 4% 1% 15% – 36%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[105][A] December 1–2, 2021 744 (LV) ± 3.4% 27% 16% 7% 4% 3% 24% – 19%
NMB Research (R)[97][F] December 2021 – (LV) – 34% – – – – 17% 49% –
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[106][A] October 20–21, 2021 806 (LV) ± 3.2% 27% 19% 8% 4% – 25% – 17%
Fabrizio Lee (R)[107][E] October 3–5, 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 36% 10% 6% 4% – 17% 1%[f] 25%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[108][A] September 8–9, 2021 847 (LV) ± 3.2% 27% 17% 8% 5% – 28% – 15%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[109][A] August 4–5, 2021 911 (LV) ± 3.0% 27% 13% 12% 9% – 24% – 15%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[110][A] June 9–10, 2021 1,011 (LV) ± 3.0% 34% 14% – 7% – 25% – 20%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[111][A] March 24–25, 2021 1,041 (LV) ± 3.0% 36% – 14% – – 30% – 20%
40% – – – – 39% – 21%
Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Roy
Blunt 		John
Brunner 		Eric
Greitens 		Vicky
Hartzler 		Billy
Long 		Eric
Schmitt 		Jason
Smith 		Ann
Wagner 		Undecided
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[111][A] March 24–25, 2021 1,041 (LV) ± 3.0% – 2% 31% 8% 6% 18% 9% 12% 14%
– 10% 38% – – 30% – – 22%
– – 36% – – 29% 16% – 19%
– – 38% – – 26% – 18% 18%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[112][E] March 23–25, 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% – – 48% – – 11% 7% 9% 26%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[113][A] December 2–3, 2020 840 (LV) ± 3.4% 43% – 32% – – – – – 25%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Schmitt
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Hartzler
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  Greitens
  •   40–50%
Republican primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Eric Schmitt 299,282 45.6
Republican Vicky Hartzler 144,903 22.1
Republican Eric Greitens 124,155 18.9
Republican Billy Long 32,603 5.0
Republican Mark McCloskey 19,540 3.0
Republican Dave Schatz 7,509 1.1
Republican Patrick A. Lewis 6,085 0.9
Republican Curtis D. Vaughn 3,451 0.5
Republican Eric McElroy 2,805 0.4
Republican Robert Allen 2,111 0.3
Republican C. W. Gardner 2,044 0.3
Republican Dave Sims 1,949 0.3
Republican Bernie Mowinski 1,602 0.2
Republican Deshon Porter 1,574 0.2
Republican Darrell Leon McClanahan III 1,139 0.2
Republican Rickey Joiner 1,084 0.2
Republican Robert Olson 1,081 0.2
Republican Dennis Lee Chilton 755 0.1
Republican Russel Pealer Breyfogle Jr. 685 0.1
Republican Kevin C. Schepers 681 0.1
Republican Hartford Tunnell 637 0.1
Total votes 655,675 100.0

Democratic primary

[edit]
AELP national security director Lucas Kunce led in fundraising, but finished second.
College professor Gena Ross, a previous nominee for U.S. House, finished fifth.

As the Democratic primary season progressed, three main contenders emerged: Lucas Kunce, director of national security at the American Economic Liberties Project; Spencer Toder, a businessman; and Trudy Busch Valentine, heiress of the Anheuser-Busch brewing company.[114] Kunce and Toder both campaigned as anti-establishment populists, whereas Valentine campaigned in a staid manner with few public appearances.[114]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]
  • Trudy Busch Valentine, retired nurse, businesswoman, activist, and daughter of beer magnate August Busch Jr.[115]

Eliminated in primary

[edit]

Withdrew

[edit]

Declined

[edit]

Endorsements

[edit]
Lucas Kunce

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

State legislators

  • Rasheen Aldridge Jr., state representative for Missouri's 78th district (2019–2023)[133]
  • Michael Johnson, state representative for Missouri's 23rd district (2021–present)[133]
  • Wes Shoemyer, state senator for Missouri's 18th district (2007–2011) and state representative for Missouri's 9th district (2001–2007)[134]

Local officials

Individuals

Organizations

Newspapers and publications

Trudy Busch Valentine

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

State legislators

  • Marlon Anderson, state representative for Missouri's 76th district (2021–present)[133]
  • Lauren Arthur, state senator for Missouri's 17th district (2018–present) and state representative for Missouri's 18th district (2015–2018)[133]
  • Ashley Aune, state representative for Missouri's 14th district (2021–present)[133]
  • Donna Baringer, state representative for Missouri's 82nd district (2017–present)[133]
  • Doug Beck, state senator for Missouri's 1st district (2021–present) and state representative for Missouri's 92nd district (2017–2021)[133]
  • Steve Butz, state representative for Missouri's 81st district (2019–present)[133]
  • Keri Ingle, state representative for Missouri's 35th district (2019–present)[133]
  • Ian Mackey, state representative for Missouri's 99th district (2023–present) and 87th district (2019–2023)[133]
  • Tracy McCreery, state senator for Missouri's 24th district and state representative for Missouri's 88th district (2015–2023) and 83rd district (2012–2013)[133]
  • Wes Rogers, state representative for Missouri's 18th district (2019–present)[133]
  • Jill Schupp, state senator for Missouri's 24th district (2015–2023) and nominee for Missouri's 2nd congressional district in 2020[133]
  • Scott Sifton, state senator for Missouri's 1st district (2013–2021) and state representative for Missouri's 96th district (2011–2013)[115]

Local officials

Polling

[edit]

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Lucas
Kunce 		Spencer
Toder 		Trudy Busch
Valentine 		Carla "Coffee"
Wright 		Other Undecided
SurveyUSA[85] July 24–27, 2022 547 (LV) ± 5.6% 14% 3% 40% 6% 9%[g] 28%
Emerson College[86] July 21–23, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 35% 3% 39% 1% 1%[h] 22%
Triton Polling & Research (D)[143][I] May 2022 ~544 (LV) ± 4.2% 19% 24% 26% – – 31%
SurveyUSA[94] May 11–15, 2022 500 (LV) ± 5.0% 10% 3% 8% 3% 12%[i] 63%
Public Policy Polling (D)[144][J] April 13–14, 2022 546 (LV) ± 4.2% 25% – 18% – – 56%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Busch Valentine
  •   <40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Kunce/Toder tie
  •   <40%
  Kunce
  •   <40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Trudy Busch Valentine 158,957 43.2
Democratic Lucas Kunce 141,203 38.3
Democratic Spencer Toder 17,465 4.7
Democratic Carla Coffee Wright 14,438 3.9
Democratic Gena Ross 8,749 2.4
Democratic Jewel Kelly 6,464 1.8
Democratic Lewis Rolen 5,247 1.4
Democratic Pat Kelly 5,002 1.4
Democratic Ronald (Ron) William Harris 4,074 1.1
Democratic Josh Shipp 3,334 0.9
Democratic Clarence (Clay) Taylor 3,322 0.9
Total votes 368,255 100.0

Libertarian primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Libertarian primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Libertarian Jonathan Dine 2,973 100.0
Total votes 2,973 100.0

Constitution primary

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

Nominee

[edit]

Results

[edit]
Constitution primary results[20]
Party Candidate Votes %
Constitution Paul Venable 792 100.0
Total votes 792 100.0

Independents

[edit]

Candidates

[edit]

John Wood, a former Bush administration official and a January 6 Committee investigator, announced that he would run for the seat as an independent on June 29, but he withdrew from the race after former Missouri Governor Eric Greitens lost the Republican primary to Schmitt.[145][146]

Withdrew

[edit]

Missed ballot deadline

[edit]
  • Rick Seabaugh, sales manager[149]
  • Nicholas Strauss, network engineer[30]

General election

[edit]

Predictions

[edit]
Source Ranking As of
538[150] Solid R November 7, 2022
The Cook Political Report[151] Solid R November 7, 2022
DDHQ[152] Solid R November 7, 2022
The Economist[153] Safe R November 7, 2022
Fox News[154] Solid R November 1, 2022
Inside Elections[155] Solid R November 3, 2022
Politico[156] Likely R August 12, 2022
RCP[157] Likely R November 5, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[158] Safe R November 7, 2022

Debates

[edit]
2022 United States Senate general election in Missouri debates
No. Date Host Moderator Republican Democratic Libertarian Constitution
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee

 W  Withdrawn

Eric Schmitt Trudy Busch Valentine Jonathan Dine Paul Venable
1 September 16, 2022 Missouri Press Association[159] David Lieb A[j] P P P

Endorsements

[edit]
Eric Schmitt (R)

Federal officials

State officials

State legislators

Newspapers

Individuals

Organizations

Trudy Busch Valentine (D)

U.S. Senators

U.S. Representatives

State officials

State legislators

  • Marlon Anderson, state representative for Missouri's 76th district (2021–present)[133]
  • Lauren Arthur, state senator for Missouri's 17th district (2018–present) and state representative for Missouri's 18th district (2015–2018)[133]
  • Ashley Aune, state representative for Missouri's 14th district (2021–present)[133]
  • Donna Baringer, state representative for Missouri's 82nd district (2017–present)[133]
  • Doug Beck, state senator for Missouri's 1st district (2021–present) and state representative for Missouri's 92nd district (2017–2021)[133]
  • Steve Butz, state representative for Missouri's 81st district (2019–present)[133]
  • Keri Ingle, state representative for Missouri's 35th district (2019–present)[133]
  • Ian Mackey, state representative for Missouri's 87th district (2019–present)[133]
  • Tracy McCreery, state representative for Missouri's 88th district (2015–present) and 83rd district (2012–2013)[133]
  • Wes Rogers, state representative for Missouri's 18th district (2019–present)[133]
  • Jill Schupp, state senator for Missouri's 24th district (2015–present) and nominee for Missouri's 2nd congressional district in 2020[133]
  • Scott Sifton, state senator for Missouri's 1st district (2013–2021) and state representative for Missouri's 96th district (2011–2013)[115]

Local officials

Organizations

Newspapers

John Wood (I) (withdrawn)

Federal officials

Polling

[edit]

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Eric
Schmitt (R) 		Trudy Busch
Valentine (D) 		Undecided
[k] 		Margin
RealClearPolitics[178] October 24 – November 1, 2022 November 1, 2022 52.0% 41.3% 6.7% Schmitt +10.7
FiveThirtyEight[179] May 15 – November 4, 2022 November 4, 2022 53.1% 41.9% 5.0% Schmitt +11.2
270towin[180] October 29 – November 7, 2022 November 7, 2022 52.0% 40.8% 7.2% Schmitt +11.2
Average 52.4% 41.3% 6.3% Schmitt +11.0

Graphical summary

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Eric
Schmitt (R) 		Trudy Busch
Valentine (D) 		John
Wood (I) 		Other Undecided
Civiqs[181] November 4–7, 2022 746 (LV) ± 4.7% 55% 40% – 4%[l] 2%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[182] October 30 – November 1, 2022 1,079 (LV) ± 2.9% 53% 42% – 2%[m] 2%
SurveyUSA[183] October 27 – November 1, 2022 791 (LV) ± 4.1% 50% 41% – 3%[n] 6%
Emerson College[184] October 26–28, 2022 1,000 (LV) ± 3.0% 54% 40% – 5%[o] –
51% 39% – 4%[p] 6%
Remington Research (R)[185][A] October 24–25, 2022 1,011 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 42% – 3%[q] 4%
Emerson College[186] September 23–27, 2022 1,160 (VLV) ± 2.8% 49% 38% – 3% 10%
SurveyUSA[187] September 14–18, 2022 670 (LV) ± 4.4% 47% 36% – 4% 14%
Remington Research (R)[188][A] August 24–25, 2022 1,011 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 40% – 2%[r] 7%
August 23, 2022 Wood withdraws from the race[146]
YouGov/SLU[189] August 8–16, 2022 900 (LV) ± 3.8% 49% 38% – 5% 8%
44% 31% 10% 3% 13%
SurveyUSA[85] July 24–27, 2022 1,591 (LV) ± 3.0% 36% 30% 9% 6% 18%
SurveyUSA[94] May 11–15, 2022 1,412 (LV) ± 3.2% 47% 34% – – 19%
Remington Research (R)[190][A] April 27–28, 2022 986 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 32% – – 18%
Hypothetical polling

Eric Greitens vs. Lucas Kunce

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Eric
Greitens (R) 		Lucas
Kunce (D) 		John
Wood (I) 		Other Undecided
SurveyUSA[85] July 24–27, 2022 1,591 (LV) ± 3.0% 31% 26% 13% 10% 21%
SurveyUSA[94] May 11–15, 2022 1,412 (LV) ± 3.2% 42% 36% – – 22%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[191] March 9–13, 2022 1,075 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 45% – – 9%
co/efficient (R)[192][B] December 16–17, 2021 1,210 (LV) ± 4.2% 34% 26% – – 40%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[193][E] October 3–4, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 40% – – 13%

Eric Greitens vs. Trudy Busch Valentine

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Eric
Greitens (R) 		Trudy Busch
Valentine (D) 		John
Wood (I) 		Other Undecided
SurveyUSA[85] July 24–27, 2022 1,591 (LV) ± 3.0% 31% 31% 10% 8% 20%
SurveyUSA[94] May 11–15, 2022 1,412 (LV) ± 3.2% 43% 37% – – 20%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[194][A] April 27–28, 2022 986 (LV) ± 3.0% 46% 37% – – 17%

Vicky Hartzler vs. Lucas Kunce

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Vicky
Hartzler (R) 		Lucas
Kunce (D) 		John
Wood (I) 		Other Undecided
SurveyUSA[85] July 24–27, 2022 1,591 (LV) ± 3.0% 34% 25% 12% 9% 20%
SurveyUSA[94] May 11–15, 2022 1,412 (LV) ± 3.2% 45% 31% – – 24%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[191] March 9–13, 2022 1,075 (LV) ± 3.0% 56% 39% – – 5%
co/efficient (R)[192][B] December 16–17, 2021 1,210 (LV) ± 4.2% 23% 16% – – 61%

Vicky Hartzler vs. Trudy Busch Valentine

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Vicky
Hartzler (R) 		Trudy Busch
Valentine (D) 		John
Wood (I) 		Other Undecided
SurveyUSA[85] July 24–27, 2022 1,591 (LV) ± 3.0% 32% 31% 9% 7% 21%
SurveyUSA[94] May 11–15, 2022 1,412 (LV) ± 3.2% 44% 33% – – 23%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[194][A] April 27–28, 2022 986 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 33% – – 18%

Billy Long vs. Lucas Kunce

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Billy
Long (R) 		Lucas
Kunce (D) 		Undecided
co/efficient (R)[192][B] December 16–17, 2021 1,210 (LV) ± 4.2% 16% 17% 67%

Eric Schmitt vs. Lucas Kunce

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Eric
Schmitt (R) 		Lucas
Kunce (D) 		John
Wood (I) 		Other Undecided
SurveyUSA[85] July 24–27, 2022 1,591 (LV) ± 3.0% 37% 27% 10% 6% 20%
SurveyUSA[94] May 11–15, 2022 1,412 (LV) ± 3.2% 46% 34% – – 19%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[191] March 9–13, 2022 1,075 (LV) ± 3.0% 55% 40% – – 5%
co/efficient (R)[192][B] December 16–17, 2021 1,210 (LV) ± 4.2% 28% 23% – – 49%

Eric Greitens vs. Lucas Kunce vs. generic independent

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Eric
Greitens (R) 		Lucas
Kunce (D) 		Generic
Independent 		Undecided
Bendixen & Amandi International (SAM)[195][K] February 2–6, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 27% 25% 26% 22%

Eric Greitens vs. Jay Nixon

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Eric
Greitens (R) 		Jay
Nixon (D) 		Undecided
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[196][A] July 14–15, 2021 922 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% 8%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[197][A] April 7–8, 2021 936 (LV) ± 3.0% 48% 44% 8%

Eric Greitens vs. Scott Sifton

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Eric
Greitens (R) 		Scott
Sifton (D) 		Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[191] March 9–13, 2022 1,075 (LV) ± 3.0% 45% 45% 10%
co/efficient (R)[192][B] December 16–17, 2021 1,210 (LV) ± 4.2% 39% 26% 35%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[193][E] October 3–4, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 40% 14%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[197][A] April 7–8, 2021 936 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 42% 9%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[198][A] February 17–18, 2021 954 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 41% 10%

Eric Greitens vs. generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Eric
Greitens (R) 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
WPA Intelligence (R)[199][L] November 16–18, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 36% 15%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[193][E] October 3–4, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 41% 12%

Generic Republican vs. generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Generic
Republican 		Generic
Democrat 		Undecided
co/efficient (R)[192][B] December 16–17, 2021 1,210 (LV) ± 4.2% 52% 35% 13%

Vicky Hartzler vs. Scott Sifton

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Vicky
Hartzler (R) 		Scott
Sifton (D) 		Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[191] March 9–13, 2022 1,075 (LV) ± 3.0% 57% 37% 6%
co/efficient (R)[192][B] December 16–17, 2021 1,210 (LV) ± 4.2% 22% 17% 61%

Billy Long vs. Scott Sifton

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Billy
Long (R) 		Scott
Sifton (D) 		Undecided
co/efficient (R)[192][B] December 16–17, 2021 1,210 (LV) ± 4.2% 13% 12% 75%

Eric Schmitt vs. Jay Nixon

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Eric
Schmitt (R) 		Jay
Nixon (D) 		Undecided
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[197][A] April 7–8, 2021 936 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 42% 8%

Eric Schmitt vs. Scott Sifton

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Eric
Schmitt (R) 		Scott
Sifton (D) 		Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[191] March 9–13, 2022 1,075 (LV) ± 3.0% 54% 40% 6%
co/efficient (R)[192][B] December 16–17, 2021 1,210 (LV) ± 4.2% 23% 18% 60%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[197][A] April 7–8, 2021 936 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 39% 10%

Roy Blunt vs. Jason Kander

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Roy
Blunt (R) 		Jason
Kander (D) 		Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[200][M] January 10–12, 2021 571 (LV) ± 4.1% 45% 44% 12%

Roy Blunt vs. Scott Sifton

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Roy
Blunt (R) 		Scott
Sifton (D) 		Undecided
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[198][A] February 17–18, 2021 954 (LV) ± 3.0% 50% 40% 10%
Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout[201][A] January 6–7, 2021 980 (LV) ± 3.0% 52% 34% 14%

Results

[edit]
State Senate districts results
State House districts results

Schmitt prevailed over Valentine on Election Day.[202]

2022 United States Senate election in Missouri[203]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Eric Schmitt 1,146,966 55.43% +6.25%
Democratic Trudy Busch Valentine 872,694 42.18% −4.21%
Libertarian Jonathan Dine 34,821 1.68% −0.74%
Constitution Paul Venable 14,608 0.71% −0.20%
Write-in 41 0.00% −0.03%
Total votes 2,069,130 100.0%
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

[edit]

By congressional district

[edit]

Schmitt won 6 of 8 congressional districts.[204]

District Schmitt Busch Valentine Representative
1st 20% 79% Cori Bush
2nd 51% 48% Ann Wagner
3rd 59% 38% Blaine Luetkemeyer
4th 66% 31% Vicky Hartzler (117th Congress)
Mark Alford (118th Congress)
5th 35% 62% Emanuel Cleaver
6th 65% 32% Sam Graves
7th 68% 29% Billy Long (117th Congress)
Eric Burlison (118th Congress)
8th 73% 24% Jason Smith

See also

[edit]

Notes

[edit]
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Gardner and Tunnell with 1%; Allen, Breyfogle, Joiner, Lewis, McClanahan, Mowinski, Olson, Porter, and Sims with 0%
  4. ^ McElroy, Joiner, and Vaughn with 0%
  5. ^ Allen, Joiner, Lewis, McClanahan, McElroy, Schepers, and Sims with 1%; Breyfogle, Chilton, Gardner, Mowinski, Olson, Porter, Tunnell, and Vaughn with 0%
  6. ^ Deets with 1%; Brinkmann and Porter with 0%
  7. ^ Jewel Kelly, Ross, and all other candidates combined with 3%
  8. ^ Harris, Jewel Kelly, Pat Kelly, Rolen, Ross, Shipp, and Taylor with 0%
  9. ^ Harris, Jewel Kelly, Pat Kelly, Ross, and Taylor with 2%; Rolen and Shipp with 1%
  10. ^ Schmitt was invited to the debate, but declined to attend
  11. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  12. ^ "Someone else" with 4%
  13. ^ Dine (L) with 2%
  14. ^ "Another candidate" with 3%
  15. ^ Dine (L) with 3%; Venable (C) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  16. ^ Dine (L) with 2%; Venable (C) with 1%; "Someone else" with 1%
  17. ^ Dine with 2% and Venable with 1%
  18. ^ Dine and Venable with 1%
  19. ^ a b Most of the city lies within Jackson County, with portions spilling into Clay, Cass, and Platte counties.

Partisan clients

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa Non-partisan poll conducted for the local non-partisan tipsheet Missouri Scout
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Poll conducted for Missouri First Action, which supports Greitens
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by Show Me Values PAC, which opposes Greitens
  4. ^ Poll conducted for an undisclosed private client
  5. ^ a b c d e f Poll conducted for Eric Greitens's campaign
  6. ^ a b Poll conducted for Protect Missouri Values PAC, which supports Schmitt
  7. ^ a b Poll conducted for Vicky Hartzler's campaign
  8. ^ Poll conducted for the Missouri Chamber Political Institute
  9. ^ This poll was conducted for Toder's campaign.
  10. ^ This poll was conducted for Kunce's campaign.
  11. ^ Poll conducted for the Serve America Movement
  12. ^ Poll conducted for Team PAC, which supports Greitens
  13. ^ Poll conducted for MoveOn

References

[edit]
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  137. ^ "Indivisible St. Louis Endorses Lucas Kunce". suntimesnews.com. June 14, 2022. Retrieved June 15, 2022.
  138. ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Non-Incumbent Senate Endorsements". www.lcv.org. February 2, 2022. Retrieved February 2, 2022.
  139. ^ Schallhorn, Kaitlyn (September 7, 2021). "VoteVets backs Lucas Kunce in Missouri Senate race". TheMissouriTimes. Retrieved September 11, 2021.
  140. ^ "Editorial: We recommend Lucas Kunce in Missouri Democratic primary for U.S. Senate". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. July 25, 2022. Retrieved July 27, 2022.
  141. ^ a b Desrochers, Daniel (June 2, 2022). "Cleaver backs Busch Valentine in Democratic primary for U.S. Senate as Greitens leads GOP". Kansas City Star.
  142. ^ a b "Tishaura Jones endorses Trudy Busch Valentine for US Senate". July 27, 2022.
  143. ^ Triton Polling & Research (D)
  144. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
  145. ^ a b Gans, Jared (June 29, 2022). "Former Jan. 6 committee counsel running for Senate in Missouri as independent". The Hill.
  146. ^ a b c Hancock, Jason (August 23, 2022). "Citing Greitens defeat, John Wood abandons independent run for U.S. Senate in Missouri". Missouri Independent. Retrieved August 23, 2022.
  147. ^ "Former mayor of Florissant to run as independent for vacant U.S. Senate seat". FOX 2. February 22, 2022. Retrieved February 22, 2022.
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  153. ^ "Economist's 2022 Senate forecast". The Economist. September 7, 2022. Retrieved September 7, 2022.
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  155. ^ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  156. ^ "Missouri Senate Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
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  161. ^ "Outgoing Missouri Sen. Roy Blunt endorses Eric Schmitt to replace him". August 18, 2022.
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  163. ^ Joey Schneider (July 13, 2022). "Hawley on Schmitt: 'I absolutely endorse him'". Fox2now.com. Retrieved August 3, 2022.
  164. ^ a b c d "Missouri State-Wide Republican Office-Holders Endorse Schmitt for U.S. Senate". missouri.gop. August 22, 2022. Retrieved August 22, 2022.
  165. ^ "Press Release: Eric Schmitt receives Missouri Prosper endorsement". themissouritimes.com. August 31, 2022. Retrieved November 6, 2022.
  166. ^ "FreedomWorks for America Endorses Eric Schmitt in Missouri U.S. Senate Race". August 3, 2022. Retrieved August 11, 2022.
  167. ^ "Farm Bureau endorses Schmitt for Senate". August 30, 2022. Retrieved August 31, 2022.
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  170. ^ "NRA-PVF - Grades - Missouri". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022.
  171. ^ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses Trudy Busch Valentine for U.S. Senate". September 8, 2022.
  172. ^ "OUR RECOMMENDED CANDIDATES". nea.org.
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  178. ^ RealClearPolitics
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  180. ^ 270towin
  181. ^ Civiqs
  182. ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
  183. ^ SurveyUSA
  184. ^ Emerson College
  185. ^ Remington Research (R)
  186. ^ Emerson College
  187. ^ SurveyUSA
  188. ^ Remington Research (R)
  189. ^ YouGov/SLU
  190. ^ Remington Research (R)
  191. ^ a b c d e f The Trafalgar Group (R)
  192. ^ a b c d e f g h i co/efficient (R)
  193. ^ a b c Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)
  194. ^ a b Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout
  195. ^ Bendixen & Amandi International (SAM)
  196. ^ Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout
  197. ^ a b c d Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout
  198. ^ a b Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout
  199. ^ WPA Intelligence (R)
  200. ^ Data for Progress (D)
  201. ^ Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout
  202. ^ "Republican Eric Schmitt Wins Missouri Senate Race". sg.news.yahoo.com. November 9, 2022. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  203. ^ "General Election November 8, 2022" (PDF). Missouri Secretary of State.
  204. ^ Results. docs.google.com (Report).
[edit]

Official campaign websites

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