2020 United States Senate election in Arkansas
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Harrington: 50–60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% >90% Tie: 50% | |||||||||||||||||
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The 2020 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arkansas, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate, elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Republican senator Tom Cotton won reelection to a second term, defeating Libertarian challenger Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. Though Cotton outperformed President Donald Trump in the concurrent presidential election by 4.1%, the election saw an undervote of 26,000 compared to the presidential election. Harrington's 33.5% finish was the best ever for a Libertarian candidate in a U.S. Senate election by vote percentage, surpassing Joe Miller's vote share in the 2016 Alaska race,[1][2] and also by total number of votes, surpassing Michael Cloud's total in the 2002 Massachusetts race. It was also the highest vote percentage ever won by a Libertarian candidate in any U.S. statewide race, surpassing John Monds's vote share in the 2008 Georgia Public Service Commission race. Per exit polls, this largely appears to be due to many Democrats deciding to pick Harrington as there was no Democratic candidate on the ballot (82% of Democratic voters backed Harrington).[3] Harrington won three counties, all of which were also won by Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.
Republican nominee
[edit]In 2018, Tom Cotton, the incumbent U.S. senator, announced that he would run for re-election in 2020.[4] Without any opposing candidates, there was not a contested primary, so Cotton automatically won the Republican nomination.[5]
Libertarian nominee
[edit]Ricky Dale Harrington Jr., Christian missionary and prison chaplain, announced that he would seek the Libertarian nomination.[6] He subsequently became the Libertarian nominee.[7]
Withdrawn candidates
[edit]Democratic Party
[edit]Josh Mahony was the only candidate to file for the Democratic primary; however, he withdrew his candidacy due to a "family health concern" on November 12, 2019.[8] Because Mahony dropped out after the filing deadline, the Democratic Party of Arkansas could only nominate a replacement if the candidate died, became seriously ill, left the state, or filed for another office. As a result, the Democratic Party of Arkansas was not able to fill the vacancy.[9][10] A memo from the Cotton campaign to supporters detailed a strategy of sitting on opposition research regarding Mahony's employment history until after the filing deadline had passed.[11]
Withdrawn
[edit]- Josh Mahony, nonprofit executive, former chair of the Fayetteville Airport Commission, and nominee for Arkansas's 3rd congressional district in 2018[8]
Declined
[edit]- Wesley Clark, retired General, former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, and 2004 Democratic presidential candidate[12]
Independents
[edit]Withdrawn
[edit]- Dan Whitfield, progressive activist. On June 25, 2020, Whitfield's petition to run was denied for failing to gain enough signatures, an effort that was complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Whitfield filed an appeal with the United States Court of Appeals for the Eighth Circuit in an attempt to overturn this ruling. He officially suspended his campaign on October 1.[13]
General election
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In public comments, Harrington spoke about excessive partisanship in the election process itself and in Senate operations, such as the contentious nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court.[14] Cotton declined to attend a debate hosted by Arkansas PBS, leaving Harrington as the sole participant. Harrington spent the debate responding to questions put to him by a panel of journalists.[15][16]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[17] | Solid R | October 29, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[18] | Safe R | October 28, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[19] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
| Daily Kos[20] | Safe R | October 30, 2020 |
| Politico[21] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
| RCP[22] | Safe R | October 23, 2020 |
| DDHQ[23] | Safe R | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[24] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
| Economist[25] | Safe R | November 2, 2020 |
Endorsements
[edit]U.S. Federal Officials
- Justin Amash, U.S. representative from Michigan's 3rd congressional district[26]
Other individuals
- Spike Cohen, Libertarian Party's 2020 vice presidential nominee[27]
- Jo Jorgensen, Libertarian Party's 2020 presidential nominee[28]
Polling
[edit]Graphical summary
[edit] | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Polls
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Tom Cotton (R) |
Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. (L) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Arkansas[29] | October 9–21, 2020 | 591 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 75% | 20% | 5% | – |
| Hendrix College/Talk Business & Politics[30] | October 11–13, 2020 | 647 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 63% | 28% | – | 10% |
| American Research Group (L)[31][A] | October 7–9, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 49% | 38% | – | 13% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Tom Cotton (incumbent) | 793,871 | 66.53% | +10.03% | |
| Libertarian | Ricky Dale Harrington Jr. | 399,390 | 33.47% | +31.44% | |
| Total votes | 1,193,261 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Republican hold | |||||
By county
[edit]By county
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Libertarian
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By congressional district
[edit]Cotton won all 4 congressional districts[34]
| District | Cotton | Harrington Jr. | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 74% | 26% | Rick Crawford |
| 2nd | 58% | 42% | French Hill |
| 3rd | 65% | 35% | Steve Womack |
| 4th | 72% | 28% | Bruce Westerman |
Notes
[edit]- ^ Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear
Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by Harrington's campaign.
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "Cotton win good news, say parties of two rivals". Arkansas Online. November 7, 2020. Retrieved February 25, 2021.
- ^ "Joe Miller Shatters Libertarian US Senate Record While 8 Others Set New State Party Marks". Smart Politics. November 20, 2016. Retrieved February 25, 2021.
- ^ Voter Analysis, Fox News. "Fox News Voter Analysis Survey, Arkansas Senate Race". Fox News. Retrieved May 2, 2021.
- ^ "Sen. Cotton says he's running for reelection in 2020". Associated Press News. August 8, 2018.
- ^ Giroux, Greg (March 3, 2020). "How to Watch Super Tuesday Congressional Primary Results". Bloomberg Government. Retrieved January 20, 2022.
- ^ "Harrington to challenge Cotton in 2020 election". Pine Bluff Commercial. October 7, 2019. Archived from the original on November 13, 2019. Retrieved November 13, 2019.
- ^ Brantley, Max (July 28, 2020). "There is an alternative to Tom Cotton". Arkansas Times. Retrieved January 20, 2022.
- ^ a b "Two hours after filing period ends, Democrat Josh Mahony drops out of U.S. Senate race". Arkansas Democrat Gazette. November 12, 2019. Retrieved November 4, 2020.
- ^ Brock, Roby (November 13, 2019). "Arkansas law suggests Mahony exit likely leaves Cotton without Democratic opponent". Retrieved November 14, 2019.
- ^ "There won't be an Arkansas Democrat challenging Sen. Cotton in 2020 election". thv11.com. November 25, 2019.
- ^ Lockwood, Frank E. (November 17, 2019). "Memo shows strategy for attack on Cotton opponent". Arkansas Democrat-Gazette. Little Rock: Arkansas Democrat-Gazette, Inc. Retrieved December 15, 2019.
- ^ Lockwood, Frank E. (April 29, 2019). "Retired general Wesley Clark rules out '20 run". ArkansasOnline. Retrieved April 29, 2019.
- ^ Gilker, Kathryn (October 1, 2020). "Dan Whitfield suspends US senate race after not getting on the ballot". KFSM-TV 5NEWS. Retrieved October 13, 2020.
- ^ "Libertarian Senate candidate Ricky Harrington calls for end to hyper-partisanship". Talk Business & Politics. September 27, 2020. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
- ^ Boehm, Eric (October 12, 2020). "Tom Cotton won't debate his Libertarian challenger. The event will happen anyway". Reason Foundation. Retrieved October 14, 2020.
- ^ Roberts, Adam (October 14, 2020). "Harrington, challenging Cotton, appears solo in Arkansas PBS debate". 40/29 News. Retrieved October 15, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings for October 29, 2020". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ^ "2020 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ^ "2020 Senate race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 12, 2021.
- ^ "2020 Senate Race Ratings". Daily Kos Elections. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2020". RCP. October 23, 2020.
- ^ "2020 Senate Elections Model". Decision Desk HQ. September 2, 2020. Retrieved September 2, 2020.
- ^ Silver, Nate (October 11, 2020). "Forecasting the race for the Senate". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved October 11, 2020.
- ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. November 2, 2020. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
- ^ Brantley, Max (October 17, 2020). "Congressman endorses Ricky Harrington for U.S. Senate".
- ^ @RealSpikeCohen (October 11, 2020). "Donate to Ricky Harrington for his race against Tom Cotton. This is an absolutely winnable race for Arkansas Senate!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ @Jorgensen4POTUS (October 14, 2020). "The Arkansas Senate debate is live now...Tom Cotton refused to participate, there is no Democrat running, and Libertarian candidate Ricky Dale Harrington @RickyForSenate has the stage to himself. #Election2020" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
- ^ University of Arkansas
- ^ Hendrix College/Talk Business & Politics
- ^ American Research Group (L)
- ^ "2020 General Election and Nonpartisan Judicial Runoff". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved November 25, 2020.
- ^ "2020 General Election and Nonpartisan Judicial Runoff". Arkansas Secretary of State. Retrieved September 8, 2021.
- ^ "DRA 2020". Daves Redistricting. Retrieved August 18, 2024.
External links
[edit]- Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Arkansas", Voting & Elections Toolkits
- "Arkansas: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA
- "League of Women Voters of Arkansas". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- Arkansas at Ballotpedia
Official campaign websites