2020 United States presidential election in Colorado
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| Elections in Colorado |
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The 2020 United States presidential election in Colorado was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] Colorado voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump from Florida, and his running mate Vice President Mike Pence from Indiana, against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden from Delaware, and his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris from California. Colorado had nine electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) proposed Denver as a finalist to host the 2020 Democratic National Convention, but the city declined, citing conflicts.[3] The Democrats had met in Denver in 1908 and 2008 Democratic National Convention. The DNC ultimately decided to hold the convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
Prior to the election, all 14 news organizations considered Colorado a state Biden would win, or a likely blue state. On the day of the election, Biden won Colorado with over 55% of the vote, and by a victory margin of 13.50%, an 8.6 percentage point improvement on Hillary Clinton's victory in the state four years prior, the strongest Democratic performance since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964, and the first time that it voted for a presidential candidate of either major party by a double-digit percentage since Ronald Reagan in 1984. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, changing demographics made Colorado more favorable to Democrats, with Latinos backing Biden with 68%, including Latinos of Mexican heritage with 75%. Biden also carried Whites with 53%. 69% of voters favored increasing federal government spending on green and renewable energy, and they favored Biden by 76%–23%.[4]
Biden flipped three counties in Colorado: Pueblo County, which had been reliably Democratic before narrowly backing Trump in 2016; Chaffee County, one of the few counties to flip from John McCain in 2008 to Barack Obama in 2012; and Garfield County, which had last voted Democratic when Bill Clinton won it in 1992. Biden also significantly closed the gap in the GOP's two largest remaining strongholds in the state, El Paso County and Douglas County, becoming the first Democrat to win more than 40% of the vote in the former since 1964[5] and closing the gap in the latter to single digits for the first time since 1964. Trump became the first Republican since William McKinley in 1900 to lose Colorado in multiple presidential elections. Nevertheless, Biden became the first Democrat since Grover Cleveland in 1892 to win the White House without carrying Conejos County, as well as the first since Woodrow Wilson in 1912 to do so without carrying Huerfano or Las Animas Counties. Trump also narrowly flipped Alamosa County, one of only fifteen counties nationwide that flipped from Hillary Clinton in 2016 to Trump in 2020, thereby making Biden the first Democratic president to be elected without carrying this county since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
This marked the first time since 1968 that Colorado voted more Democratic than neighboring New Mexico. Biden carried New Mexico by 10.79%, 2.71 points lower than Colorado.
Primary elections
[edit]The primary elections were held on Super Tuesday, March 3, 2020.
Republican primary
[edit]The Republican primary was due to be canceled until Robert Ardini, a retired advertising executive, decided to submit his name for the ballot. Several others subsequently joined him.
| Candidate | Votes | % | Estimated delegates[8] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump (incumbent) | 628,876 | 92.26 | 37 |
| Bill Weld | 25,698 | 3.77 | 0 |
| Joe Walsh (withdrawn) | 13,072 | 1.92 | 0 |
| Matthew John Matern | 7,239 | 1.06 | 0 |
| Robert Ardini | 3,388 | 0.50 | 0 |
| Zoltan Istvan | 3,350 | 0.49 | 0 |
| Total | 681,623 | 100% | 37 |
Democratic primary
[edit]The results were certified on March 30.[9][10] The race was called for Bernie Sanders[11] who won a plurality of votes and delegates.
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[13][14] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bernie Sanders | 355,293 | 37.00 | 29[a] |
| Joe Biden | 236,565 | 24.64 | 21[b] |
| Michael Bloomberg | 177,727 | 18.51 | 9[c] |
| Elizabeth Warren | 168,695 | 17.57 | 8[d] |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 10,037 | 1.05 | |
| Andrew Yang (withdrawn) | 3,988 | 0.42 | |
| Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[e] | 3,323 | 0.35 | |
| Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 1,276 | 0.13 | |
| Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 1,086 | 0.11 | |
| Deval Patrick (withdrawn) | 227 | 0.02 | |
| Other candidates | 1,911 | 0.20 | |
| Total | 960,128 | 100% | 67 |
Libertarian nominee
[edit]- Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[15] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| Inside Elections[16] | Solid D | November 3, 2020 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| Politico[18] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| RCP[19] | Lean D | November 3, 2020 |
| Niskanen[20] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| CNN[21] | Lean D | November 3, 2020 |
| The Economist[22] | Safe D | November 3, 2020 |
| CBS News[23] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| 270towin[24] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| ABC News[25] | Solid D | November 3, 2020 |
| NPR[26] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| NBC News[27] | Likely D | November 3, 2020 |
| 538[28] | Solid D | November 3, 2020 |
Polling
[edit]Graphical summary
[edit] | Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. Updates on reimplementing the Graph extension, which will be known as the Chart extension, can be found on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Aggregate polls
[edit]| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other/ Undecided [f] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270 to Win[29] | October 15 – November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 52.0% | 40.6% | 7.4% | Biden +11.4 |
| FiveThirtyEight[30] | until November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 53.6% | 41.1% | 5.3% | Biden +12.5 |
| Average | 52.8% | 40.8% | 6.4% | Biden +12.0 | ||
Polls
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[g] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Jo Jorgensen Libertarian |
Howie Hawkins Green |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[31] | Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 | 2,991 (LV) | ± 2.5% | 44%[h] | 55% | – | – | – | – |
| Keating Research/Onsight Public Affairs/Colorado Sun[32] | Oct 29 – Nov 1, 2020 | 502 (LV)[i] | ± 4.4% | 41% | 53% | – | – | – | – |
| Data for Progress[33] | Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 | 709 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 54% | 3% | 1% | 0%[j] | – |
| Swayable[34] | Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 | 455 (LV) | ± 6% | 41% | 55% | 3% | 1% | – | – |
| Morning Consult[35] | Oct 22–31, 2020 | 727 (LV) | ± 4% | 41% | 54% | – | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[31] | Oct 1–28, 2020 | 5,925 (LV) | – | 40% | 59% | – | – | – | – |
| Morning Consult[35] | Oct 11–20, 2020 | 788 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 55% | – | – | – | – |
| RBI Strategies[36] | Oct 12–16, 2020 | 502 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 38% | 55% | 3% | 1% | 1%[k] | 1% |
| RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[37] | Oct 9–15, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 51% | – | – | 1%[l] | 3% |
| Civiqs/Daily Kos[38] | Oct 11–14, 2020 | 1,013 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 42% | 53% | – | – | 3%[k] | 1% |
| Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson[39] | Oct 8–13, 2020 | 519 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 39% | 54% | – | – | 3%[m] | 4% |
| Morning Consult[35] | Oct 2–11, 2020 | 837 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 54% | – | – | – | – |
| YouGov/University of Colorado[40] | Oct 5–9, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.64% | 38% | 47% | – | – | 3% | 11% |
| SurveyUSA/9News/Colorado Politics[41] | Oct 1–6, 2020 | 1,021 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 40% | 50% | – | – | 5%[n] | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[31] | Sep 1–30, 2020 | 2,717 (LV) | – | 41% | 57% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Morning Consult[42] | Aug 29 – Sep 7, 2020 | 657 (LV) | ± (2%–4%) | 43%[o] | 49% | – | – | – | – |
| Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP[43] | Aug 30 – Sep 5, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 50% | – | – | 2%[p] | 8% |
| Global Strategy Group/Progress Colorado[44][A] | Aug 28 – Sep 1, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 39% | 50% | 4% | 1% | 1%[q] | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[31] | Aug 1–31, 2020 | 2,385 (LV) | – | 41% | 57% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Morning Consult[45][46] | Aug 21–30, 2020 | 638 (LV) | ± 4% | 41%[o] | 51% | – | – | – | – |
| Morning Consult[47] | Aug 16–25, 2020 | ~600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 51% | – | – | – | – |
| Morning Consult[45][46] | Aug 7–16, 2020 | 601 (LV) | ± 4% | 41%[r] | 51% | – | – | – | – |
| Morning Consult[47] | Aug 6–15, 2020 | ~600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 51% | – | – | – | – |
| Morning Consult[47] | Jul 7 – Aug 5, 2020 | ~600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 40% | 52% | – | – | – | – |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[31] | Jul 1–31, 2020 | 2,337 (LV) | – | 40% | 58% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Morning Consult[48] | Jul 17–26, 2020 | 616 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 39%[o] | 52% | – | – | – | – |
| Morning Consult[47] | Jul 13–22, 2020 | ~600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 51% | – | – | – | – |
| Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[49][B] | Jul 23–24, 2020 | 891 (V) | – | 41% | 54% | – | – | – | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling/End Citizens United[50] | Jun 29–30, 2020 | 840 (V) | ± 3.4% | 39% | 56% | – | – | – | 5% |
| SurveyMonkey/Axios[31] | Jun 8–30, 2020 | 1,088 (LV) | – | 42% | 57% | – | – | – | 2% |
| Morning Consult[48] | May 17–26, 2020 | 572 (LV) | – | 42% | 50% | – | – | – | – |
| Global Strategy Group (D)[51] | May 7–11, 2020 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 53% | – | – | – | 7% |
| Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson/Colorado Politics[52] | May 1–3, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 36% | 55% | – | – | 3%[m] | 6% |
| Montana State University Bozeman[53] | Apr 10–19, 2020 | 379 (LV) | – | 35% | 53% | – | – | 3% | 8% |
| Climate Nexus[54] | Feb 11–15, 2020 | 485 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 43% | 46% | – | – | – | 11% |
| Emerson College[55] | Aug 16–19, 2019 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 55% | – | – | – | – |
| Fabrizio Ward/AARP[56] | Jul 29–31, 2019 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 51% | – | – | 1%[s] | 5% |
Former candidates
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Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
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Hypothetical polling
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Donald Trump vs. Generic Democrat
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Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Joe Biden Kamala Harris |
1,804,352 | 55.40% | +7.28% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump Mike Pence |
1,364,607 | 41.90% | −1.41% | |
| Libertarian | Jo Jorgensen Spike Cohen |
52,460 | 1.61% | −3.56% | |
| Green | Howie Hawkins Angela Walker |
8,986 | 0.28% | −1.09% | |
| Independent | Kanye West Michelle Tidball |
8,089 | 0.25% | N/A | |
| American Constitution | Don Blankenship William Mohr |
5,061 | 0.16% | −0.26% | |
| Unity | Bill Hammons Eric Bodenstab |
2,730 | 0.08% | N/A | |
| American Solidarity | Brian Carroll Amar Patel |
2,515 | 0.08% | +0.05% | |
| Independent | Mark Charles Adrian Wallace |
2,011 | 0.06% | N/A | |
| Socialism and Liberation | Gloria La Riva Sunil Freeman |
1,035 | 0.03% | +0.01% | |
| Independent American | Kyle Kopitke Nathan Sorenson |
762 | 0.02% | −0.02% | |
| Alliance | Rocky De La Fuente Darcy Richardson |
636 | 0.02% | −0.02% | |
| Independent | Joe McHugh Elizabeth Storm |
614 | 0.02% | N/A | |
| Independent | Brock Pierce Karla Ballard |
572 | 0.02% | N/A | |
| Prohibition | Phil Collins Billy Joe Parker |
568 | 0.02% | +0.01% | |
| Independent | Princess Khadijah Jacob-Fambro Khadijah Jacob Sr. |
495 | 0.02% | N/A | |
| Progressive | Dario Hunter Dawn Neptune Adams |
379 | 0.01% | N/A | |
| Approval Voting | Blake Huber Frank Atwood |
355 | 0.01% | ±0.00 | |
| Socialist Workers | Alyson Kennedy Malcolm Jarrett |
354 | 0.01% | −0.01% | |
| Socialist Equality | Joseph Kishore Norissa Santa Cruz |
196 | 0.01% | N/A | |
| Independent | Jordan "Cancer" Scott Jennifer Tepool |
175 | 0.01% | N/A | |
| Independent | Tom Hoefling Andy Prior |
24 | 0.00% | N/A | |
| Independent | Todd Cella Timothy Cella |
4 | 0.00% | N/A | |
| Total votes | 3,256,980 | 100.00% | |||
By county
[edit]| County | Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 134,202 | 56.69% | 95,657 | 40.41% | 6,881 | 2.90% | 38,545 | 16.28% | 236,740 |
| Alamosa | 3,759 | 48.14% | 3,813 | 48.83% | 236 | 3.03% | -54 | -0.69% | 7,808 |
| Arapahoe | 213,607 | 61.00% | 127,323 | 36.36% | 9,253 | 2.64% | 86,284 | 24.64% | 350,183 |
| Archuleta | 3,738 | 40.88% | 5,189 | 56.75% | 217 | 2.37% | -1,451 | -15.87% | 9,144 |
| Baca | 317 | 14.25% | 1,867 | 83.91% | 41 | 1.84% | -1,550 | -69.66% | 2,225 |
| Bent | 732 | 32.19% | 1,503 | 66.09% | 39 | 1.72% | -771 | -33.90% | 2,274 |
| Boulder | 159,089 | 77.19% | 42,501 | 20.62% | 4,521 | 2.19% | 116,588 | 56.57% | 206,111 |
| Broomfield | 29,077 | 62.35% | 16,295 | 34.94% | 1,260 | 2.71% | 12,782 | 27.41% | 46,632 |
| Chaffee | 7,160 | 52.19% | 6,222 | 45.36% | 336 | 2.45% | 938 | 6.83% | 13,718 |
| Cheyenne | 131 | 11.53% | 993 | 87.41% | 12 | 1.06% | -862 | -75.88% | 1,136 |
| Clear Creek | 3,604 | 55.04% | 2,754 | 42.06% | 190 | 2.90% | 850 | 11.98% | 6,548 |
| Conejos | 1,959 | 45.21% | 2,286 | 52.76% | 88 | 2.03% | -327 | -7.55% | 4,333 |
| Costilla | 1,311 | 62.61% | 741 | 35.39% | 42 | 2.00% | 570 | 27.22% | 2,094 |
| Crowley | 437 | 24.97% | 1,271 | 72.63% | 42 | 2.40% | -834 | -47.66% | 1,750 |
| Custer | 1,112 | 30.59% | 2,474 | 68.06% | 49 | 1.35% | -1,362 | -37.47% | 3,635 |
| Delta | 5,887 | 30.39% | 13,081 | 67.53% | 402 | 2.08% | -7,194 | -37.14% | 19,370 |
| Denver | 313,293 | 79.55% | 71,618 | 18.19% | 8,918 | 2.26% | 241,675 | 61.36% | 393,829 |
| Dolores | 341 | 23.53% | 1,089 | 75.16% | 19 | 1.31% | -748 | -51.63% | 1,449 |
| Douglas | 104,653 | 45.19% | 121,270 | 52.36% | 5,682 | 2.45% | -16,617 | -7.17% | 231,605 |
| Eagle | 18,588 | 63.79% | 9,892 | 33.95% | 660 | 2.26% | 8,696 | 29.84% | 29,140 |
| El Paso | 161,941 | 42.75% | 202,828 | 53.54% | 14,082 | 3.71% | -40,887 | -10.79% | 378,851 |
| Elbert | 4,490 | 23.65% | 14,027 | 73.89% | 466 | 2.46% | -9,537 | -50.24% | 18,983 |
| Fremont | 7,369 | 28.83% | 17,517 | 68.54% | 671 | 2.63% | -10,148 | -39.71% | 25,557 |
| Garfield | 15,427 | 49.92% | 14,717 | 47.62% | 760 | 2.46% | 710 | 2.30% | 30,904 |
| Gilpin | 2,223 | 53.11% | 1,833 | 43.79% | 130 | 3.10% | 390 | 9.32% | 4,186 |
| Grand | 4,710 | 47.72% | 4,883 | 49.47% | 277 | 2.81% | -173 | -1.75% | 9,870 |
| Gunnison | 7,132 | 63.74% | 3,735 | 33.38% | 323 | 2.88% | 3,397 | 30.36% | 11,190 |
| Hinsdale | 255 | 40.35% | 353 | 55.85% | 24 | 3.80% | -98 | -15.50% | 632 |
| Huerfano | 2,076 | 47.12% | 2,203 | 50.00% | 127 | 2.88% | -127 | -2.88% | 4,406 |
| Jackson | 175 | 19.98% | 681 | 77.74% | 20 | 2.28% | -506 | -57.76% | 876 |
| Jefferson | 218,396 | 57.88% | 148,417 | 39.33% | 10,545 | 2.79% | 69,979 | 18.55% | 377,358 |
| Kiowa | 98 | 10.85% | 795 | 88.04% | 10 | 1.11% | -697 | -77.19% | 903 |
| Kit Carson | 662 | 17.10% | 3,144 | 81.22% | 65 | 1.68% | -2,482 | -64.12% | 3,871 |
| La Plata | 20,548 | 57.61% | 14,233 | 39.91% | 886 | 2.48% | 6,315 | 17.70% | 35,667 |
| Lake | 2,303 | 58.14% | 1,497 | 37.79% | 161 | 4.07% | 806 | 20.35% | 3,961 |
| Larimer | 126,120 | 56.22% | 91,489 | 40.78% | 6,729 | 3.00% | 34,631 | 15.44% | 224,338 |
| Las Animas | 3,497 | 43.93% | 4,284 | 53.81% | 180 | 2.26% | -787 | -9.88% | 7,961 |
| Lincoln | 470 | 17.73% | 2,135 | 80.54% | 46 | 1.73% | -1,665 | -62.81% | 2,651 |
| Logan | 2,218 | 21.06% | 8,087 | 76.79% | 227 | 2.15% | -5,869 | -55.73% | 10,532 |
| Mesa | 31,536 | 34.80% | 56,894 | 62.78% | 2,193 | 2.42% | -25,358 | -27.98% | 90,623 |
| Mineral | 317 | 41.93% | 427 | 56.48% | 12 | 1.59% | -110 | -14.55% | 756 |
| Moffat | 1,203 | 17.12% | 5,670 | 80.70% | 153 | 2.18% | -4,467 | -63.58% | 7,026 |
| Montezuma | 5,836 | 37.65% | 9,306 | 60.04% | 358 | 2.31% | -3,470 | -22.39% | 15,500 |
| Montrose | 7,687 | 30.84% | 16,770 | 67.29% | 465 | 1.87% | -9,083 | -36.45% | 24,922 |
| Morgan | 3,876 | 28.20% | 9,593 | 68.80% | 275 | 2.00% | -5,717 | -41.60% | 13,744 |
| Otero | 3,605 | 37.65% | 5,756 | 60.11% | 215 | 2.24% | -2,151 | -22.46% | 9,576 |
| Ouray | 2,365 | 58.83% | 1,577 | 39.23% | 78 | 1.94% | 788 | 19.60% | 4,020 |
| Park | 4,903 | 39.89% | 6,991 | 56.88% | 397 | 3.23% | -2,088 | -16.99% | 12,291 |
| Phillips | 486 | 19.56% | 1,958 | 78.79% | 41 | 1.65% | -1,472 | -59.23% | 2,485 |
| Pitkin | 8,989 | 75.18% | 2,780 | 23.25% | 188 | 1.57% | 6,209 | 51.93% | 11,957 |
| Prowers | 1,458 | 26.22% | 4,008 | 72.07% | 95 | 1.71% | -2,550 | -45.85% | 5,561 |
| Pueblo | 43,772 | 49.57% | 42,252 | 47.85% | 2,277 | 2.58% | 1,520 | 1.72% | 88,301 |
| Rio Blanco | 561 | 15.20% | 3,061 | 82.93% | 69 | 1.87% | -2,500 | -67.73% | 3,691 |
| Rio Grande | 2,495 | 39.57% | 3,660 | 58.05% | 150 | 2.38% | -1,165 | -18.48% | 6,305 |
| Routt | 10,582 | 62.70% | 5,925 | 35.11% | 369 | 2.19% | 4,657 | 27.59% | 16,876 |
| Saguache | 1,884 | 55.59% | 1,413 | 41.69% | 92 | 2.72% | 471 | 13.90% | 3,389 |
| San Juan | 342 | 60.85% | 202 | 35.94% | 18 | 3.21% | 140 | 24.91% | 562 |
| San Miguel | 3,924 | 76.24% | 1,136 | 22.07% | 87 | 1.69% | 2,788 | 54.17% | 5,147 |
| Sedgwick | 301 | 20.82% | 1,121 | 77.52% | 24 | 1.66% | -820 | -56.70% | 1,446 |
| Summit | 12,631 | 68.35% | 5,322 | 28.80% | 526 | 2.85% | 7,309 | 39.55% | 18,479 |
| Teller | 5,278 | 31.16% | 11,241 | 66.36% | 420 | 2.48% | -5,963 | -35.20% | 16,939 |
| Washington | 369 | 12.27% | 2,595 | 86.27% | 44 | 1.46% | -2,226 | -74.00% | 3,008 |
| Weld | 66,060 | 39.56% | 96,145 | 57.58% | 4,769 | 2.86% | -30,085 | -18.02% | 166,974 |
| Yuma | 785 | 15.76% | 4,107 | 82.45% | 89 | 1.79% | -3,322 | -66.69% | 4,981 |
| Total | 1,804,352 | 55.40% | 1,364,607 | 41.90% | 88,021 | 2.70% | 439,745 | 13.50% | 3,256,980 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Chaffee (largest municipality: Salida)
- Garfield (largest municipality: Glenwood Springs)
- Pueblo (largest municipality: Pueblo)
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
By congressional district
[edit]Biden won 4 out of the 7 congressional districts in Colorado.
| District | Trump | Biden | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 22.1% | 75.6% | Diana DeGette |
| 2nd | 33.6% | 63.7% | Joe Neguse |
| 3rd | 51.6% | 46.1% | Scott Tipton |
| Lauren Boebert | |||
| 4th | 56.6% | 40.8% | Ken Buck |
| 5th | 54.7% | 41.8% | Doug Lamborn |
| 6th | 39.3% | 58.2% | Jason Crow |
| 7th | 37.1% | 60% | Ed Perlmutter |
Analysis
[edit]In this election, Colorado weighed in as 9.1% more Democratic than the nation as a whole. The results established Colorado as a Democratic stronghold, rather than the Democratic-leaning battleground state it had been for the past three election cycles and previously a Republican leaning state, as Trump became the first Republican incumbent since William Howard Taft to consecutively lose the state between elections.[62] With Biden's win, Colorado voted Democratic at the presidential level four times in a row for the first time since statehood, the state having previously voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 and for Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Unlike Virginia, another Republican-leaning turned battleground state that also voted Democratic by double digits for the first time in decades at the presidential level in 2020, Colorado's status as a blue state would hold up following the 2022 midterms, in which Democrats won every statewide office by double digits, and expanded their majorities in the state legislature. This would stand in contrast to Virginia in 2021, which saw Republicans win all three elected offices and the lower house.
Edison exit polls
[edit]| 2020 presidential election in Colorado by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[63][64] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Demographic subgroup | Biden | Trump | % of
total vote |
| Total vote | 55.40 | 41.90 | 100 |
| Ideology | |||
| Liberals | 95 | 4 | 29 |
| Moderates | 65 | 30 | 38 |
| Conservatives | 8 | 91 | 32 |
| Party | |||
| Democrats | 98 | 2 | 29 |
| Republicans | 7 | 91 | 25 |
| Independents | 55 | 40 | 46 |
| Gender | |||
| Men | 49 | 47 | 46 |
| Women | 61 | 37 | 54 |
| Race/ethnicity | |||
| White | 57 | 41 | 79 |
| Black | – | – | 3 |
| Latino | 58 | 38 | 12 |
| Asian | – | – | 2 |
| Other | – | – | 4 |
| Age | |||
| 18–29 years old | 70 | 26 | 16 |
| 30–44 years old | 55 | 40 | 25 |
| 45–64 years old | 48 | 49 | 35 |
| 65 and older | 57 | 42 | 25 |
| Sexual orientation | |||
| LGBT | – | – | 6 |
| Not LGBT | 55 | 42 | 94 |
| Education | |||
| High school or less | 43 | 55 | 14 |
| Some college education | 53 | 45 | 24 |
| Associate degree | 48 | 49 | 18 |
| Bachelor's degree | 57 | 39 | 25 |
| Postgraduate degree | 73 | 25 | 19 |
| Issue regarded as most important | |||
| Racial inequality | 90 | 8 | 15 |
| Coronavirus | 91 | 8 | 20 |
| Economy | 11 | 86 | 32 |
| Crime and safety | 13 | 83 | 9 |
| Health care | 85 | 13 | 15 |
| Region | |||
| East | 41 | 56 | 18 |
| Denver/Eastern suburbs | 67 | 30 | 30 |
| Northern suburbs | 59 | 38 | 20 |
| Southern suburbs | 53 | 44 | 19 |
| Colorado Rockies | 46 | 52 | 13 |
| Area type | |||
| Urban | 63 | 35 | 38 |
| Suburban | 54 | 43 | 48 |
| Rural | 40 | 57 | 14 |
| Family's financial situation today | |||
| Better than four years ago | 23 | 75 | 39 |
| Worse than four years ago | 84 | 10 | 17 |
| About the same | 74 | 24 | 43 |
Notes
[edit]- ^ 24 delegates, if Bloomberg's and Warren's statewide delegates would have been calculated.
- ^ 17 delegates, if Bloomberg's and Warren's statewide delegates would have been calculated.
- ^ 14 delegates, if Bloomberg's and Warren's statewide delegates would have been calculated.
- ^ 12 delegates, if Bloomberg's and Warren's statewide delegates would have been calculated.
- ^ Candidate withdrew shortly before the primary and after the start of early in-person voting.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 0%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 3%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
- ^ a b "Other candidate" with 3%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 5%
- ^ a b c Overlapping sample with the previous Morning Consult poll, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ Would not vote with 2%
- ^ West (B) with 1%
- ^ Overlapping sample with the previous and subsequent Morning Consult polls, but more information available regarding sample size
- ^ Would not vote/would not vote for president with 1%
Partisan clients
See also
[edit]
- United States presidential elections in Colorado
- 2020 Colorado elections
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
References
[edit]- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
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- ^ "Colorado Secretary of State—March 3, 2020 Presidential Primary Election". Colorado Secretary of State.
- ^ "Colorado Election Results 2020". NBC News. Retrieved March 5, 2020.
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- ^ Best, Ryan; Bycoffe, Aaron; King, Ritchie; Mehta, Dhrumil; Wiederkehr, Anna (June 28, 2018). "Colorado : President: general election Polls". FiveThirtyEight.
- ^ a b c d e f "Candidate preference". www.tableau.com.
- ^ Frank, John (November 2, 2020). "A new poll in Colorado shows Democrats poised for big wins in the 2020 election. Can you trust the numbers?". The Colorado Sun.
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- ^ Bridges, Katherine (2020). "2020 Election Battleground State Surveys". doi:10.26419/res.00401.000.
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- ^ a b "Extensive New Battleground Polling Shows Biden Gaining Ground". Morning Consult. Retrieved August 12, 2024.
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- ^ "Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson/Colorado Politics" (PDF).
- ^ "Current Surveys - Social Data Collection and Analysis Services (Social Data) | Montana State University". www.montana.edu.
- ^ a b c d e f "Climate Nexus" (PDF).
- ^ a b c d e "Emerson College". Archived from the original on August 20, 2019.
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- ^ "Colorado 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
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Further reading
[edit]- Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020,
Colorado
External links
[edit]- "League of Women Voters of Colorado". (state affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
- League of Women Voters, "Voting in my state: Colorado", Vote411.org
