2022 United States Senate election in Alaska
(Redirected from Draft:Kelly Tshibaka)
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The 2022 United States Senate election in Alaska was held on November 8, 2022. Incumbent Republican senator Lisa Murkowski won reelection to a fourth full term, defeating fellow Republican Kelly Tshibaka and Democrat Patricia Chesbro.[1]
This was the first U.S. Senate election in Alaska to be held under a new election process provided for in Ballot Measure 2. All candidates ran in a nonpartisan blanket top-four primary on August 16, 2022, and the top four candidates advanced to the general election, where voters utilized ranked-choice voting.[2][3]
Murkowski had been a vocal critic of Donald Trump during his presidency and opposed several of his initiatives. Murkowski was one of seven Republican senators who voted to convict Trump in his second impeachment trial in 2021, and was the only one up for re-election in 2022. On March 16, 2021, the Alaska Republican Party voted to censure Murkowski and announced that it would recruit a Republican challenger in the 2022 election cycle. Kelly Tshibaka, a former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration, was endorsed by Trump and the Alaska Republican Party.[4][5][6] Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell and the National Republican Senatorial Committee supported Murkowski.[7]
In addition to Murkowski and Tshibaka, Democrat Pat Chesbro and Republican Buzz Kelley also advanced to the general election. On September 13, Kelley suspended his campaign and endorsed Tshibaka but remained on the ballot.[8] Murkowski received a plurality of first-place votes; however, because no candidate received a majority of the votes in the first round, an instant runoff was triggered. Murkowski won reelection in the third and final round, winning most of the second-choice votes from Chesbro's voters.[9]
Primary election
[edit]Republican Party
[edit]Advanced to general
[edit]- Lisa Murkowski, incumbent U.S. senator[10]
- Kelly Tshibaka, former commissioner of the Alaska Department of Administration[11]
Withdrew after advancing to general
[edit]Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Sam Merrill, businessman[12]
- Pat Nolin, mechanic[12]
- John Schiess, perennial candidate[14]
- Kendall L. Shorkey[14]
- Karl Speights, retired U.S. Air Force officer and advisor to Donald Trump's 2020 presidential campaign[15]
Disqualified
[edit]- Sam Little, musician, truck driver, National Guard veteran and candidate for governor of Alaska in 2010[15]
Declined
[edit]- Mike Dunleavy, governor of Alaska[16] (ran for re-election)[17]
- Bob Lochner, mechanic and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016[18]
- Sarah Palin, former governor of Alaska and nominee for vice president of the United States in 2008 (ran for U.S. House)[19][20]
Democratic Party
[edit]Advanced to general
[edit]Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Edgar Blatchford, professor, former mayor of Seward, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2020[23]
- Ivan R. Taylor[24]
Withdrew
[edit]- Elvi Gray-Jackson, state senator for District I and former Anchorage Assembly member (ran for re-election)[25][26][27]
Libertarian Party
[edit]Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Sean Thorne, veteran[28]
Alaskan Independence Party
[edit]Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Dustin Darden, city maintenance worker and perennial candidate[15]
- Joe Stephens[29]
Declined
[edit]- John Howe, machinist and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2020 (ran for governor)[23]
Independents
[edit]Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Dave Darden, perennial candidate[29]
- Shoshana Gungurstein, businesswoman
- Sid Hill, political gadfly and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2014[29]
- Jeremy Keller, television personality[14]
- Huhnkie Lee, attorney, army veteran and Republican candidate for Alaska Senate in 2020[15]
Declined
[edit]- Al Gross, orthopedic surgeon, commercial fisherman, son of former Alaska Attorney General Avrum Gross, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020 (ran for U.S. House)[30][31]
Results
[edit]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Lisa Murkowski (incumbent) | 85,794 | 45.05% | |
| Republican | Kelly Tshibaka | 73,414 | 38.55% | |
| Democratic | Patricia Chesbro | 12,989 | 6.82% | |
| Republican | Buzz Kelley | 4,055 | 2.13% | |
| Republican | Pat Nolin | 2,004 | 1.05% | |
| Democratic | Edgar Blatchford | 1,981 | 1.04% | |
| Democratic | Ivan R. Taylor | 1,897 | 1.00% | |
| Republican | Sam Merrill | 1,529 | 0.80% | |
| Libertarian | Sean Thorne | 1,399 | 0.73% | |
| Independent | Shoshana Gungurstein | 853 | 0.45% | |
| Independence | Joe Stephens | 805 | 0.42% | |
| Republican | John Schiess | 734 | 0.39% | |
| Independence | Dustin Darden | 649 | 0.34% | |
| Republican | Kendall L. Shorkey | 627 | 0.33% | |
| Republican | Karl Speights | 613 | 0.32% | |
| Independent | Jeremy Keller | 405 | 0.21% | |
| Independent | Sid Hill | 274 | 0.14% | |
| Independent | Huhnkie Lee | 238 | 0.12% | |
| Independent | Dave Darden | 198 | 0.10% | |
| Total votes | 190,458 | 100.0% | ||
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[33] | Solid R | March 4, 2022 |
| Inside Elections[34] | Solid R | April 1, 2022 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[35] | Safe R | March 1, 2022 |
| Politico[36] | Solid R | September 5, 2022 |
| RCP[37] | Safe R | September 15, 2022 |
| Fox News[38] | Solid R | May 12, 2022 |
| DDHQ[39] | Solid R | July 20, 2022 |
| FiveThirtyEight[40] | Solid R | October 24, 2022 |
| The Economist[41] | Safe R | September 7, 2022 |
Debates and forums
[edit]| No. | Date | Host | Link | Participants | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn | |||||||
| Lisa Murkowski | Kelly Tshibaka | Patricia Chesbro | Buzz Kelley | ||||
| 1 | September 1, 2022 | Denaʼina Civic and Convention Center Alaska Oil and Gas Association Anchorage Daily News |
[42] | P | P | P | A |
| 2 | October 10, 2022 | Anchorage Chamber of Commerce | [43] | P | P | P | W |
Endorsements
[edit]Pat Chesbro (D)
Organizations
- The Alaska Center[44]
- Alaska Democratic Party[45]
Lisa Murkowski (R)
Executive branch officials
- George W. Bush, 43rd President of the United States (2001–2009)[46]
Governors
- Larry Hogan, Governor of Maryland (2015–2023)[47]
- Bill Walker, Governor of Alaska (2014–2018) (Independent)[48]
U.S. Senators
- John Barrasso, U.S. Senator from Wyoming (2007–present)[49]
- Susan Collins, U.S. Senator from Maine (1997–present)[50]
- John Cornyn, U.S. Senator from Texas (2002–present)[51]
- Joni Ernst, U.S. Senator from Iowa (2015–present)[50]
- Angus King, U.S. Senator from Maine (2013–present) (Independent)[51]
- Joe Manchin, U.S. Senator from West Virginia (2010–present) (Democratic)[52]
- Mitch McConnell, U.S Senator from Kentucky (1985–present), Senate Minority Leader (2021–present, 2007–2015), and former Senate Majority Leader (2015–2021)[53]
- Rick Scott, U.S. Senator from Florida (2019–present)[54]
- Tim Scott, U.S. Senator from South Carolina (2013–present)[55]
- Kyrsten Sinema, U.S. Senator from Arizona (2019–present) (Democratic)[51]
- Dan Sullivan, U.S. Senator from Alaska (2015–present)[56]
- Jeanne Shaheen, U.S. Senator from New Hampshire (2009–present) (Democratic)[51]
- John Thune, U.S. Senator from South Dakota (2005–present), Senate Minority Whip (2021–present), and former Senate Majority Whip (2019–2021)
- Mark Warner, U.S. Senator from Virginia (2009–present) (Democratic)[51]
U.S. Representatives
- Adam Kinzinger, U.S. representative from Illinois's 16th congressional district; formerly 17th district (2011–2023)[57]
- Mary Peltola, U.S. representative from Alaska's at-large congressional district (2022–present) (Democratic)[58]
State Legislators
- Bryce Edgmon, state representative (Independent)[59]
- Zack Fields, state representative (Democratic)[59]
- Neal Foster, state representative (Democratic)[60]
- Dan Ortiz, state representative (Independent)[59]
- Gary Stevens, state senator[59]
- Louise Stutes, state representative, Speaker of the Alaska House of Representatives[60]
- Natasha von Imhof, state senator[60]
- Adam Wool, state representative (Democratic)[60]
Newspapers
Organizations
- Alaska Federation of Natives[62]
- American Conservation Coalition[61]
- American Israel Public Affairs Committee[61]
- ANCSA Regional Association[61]
- Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions[63]
- ClearPath Action Fund[61]
- Forward Party[64]
- Log Cabin Republicans[65]
- National Education Association – Alaska[66]
- National Republican Senatorial Committee[54]
- Pro-Israel America[67]
- Renew America Movement[68]
- United Fishermen of Alaska[61]
- United States Chamber of Commerce[69]
Labor unions
- Alaska AFL–CIO[70]
- Alaska Professional Firefighters Association[61]
- Alaska Teamsters Local 959[61]
- Carpenters Local Union 1281[61]
- Inlandboatmen's Union of the Pacific – Alaska[61]
- International Longshore and Warehouse Union – Alaska[61]
- Laborers' International Union of North America[61]
Kelly Tshibaka (R)
Executive branch officials
- Donald Trump, 45th President of the United States (2017–2021)[71]
Governors
- Kristi Noem, Governor of South Dakota (2019–present)[72]
- Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska (2006–2009), candidate for Alaska's at-large congressional district in 2022 and nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008[73]
Local officials
- Edgar Blatchford, former mayor of Seward (1999–2003), candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2016, 2022 and lieutenant governor in 2018 (Democratic)[74]
Individuals
- Tuckerman Babcock, political strategist and former chair of the Alaska Republican Party (2016–2018)[75]
- Buzz Kelley, candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2022 and retired mechanic[12][13]
- Charlie Kirk, political activist and founder of Turning Point USA[76]
- Donald Trump Jr., businessman and son of former President Donald Trump[77]
Organizations
- Alaska Outdoor Council PAC[78]
- Alaska Republican Party[79]
- American Conservative Union[80]
- Campaign for Working Families[81]
- Family Research Council Action PAC[82]
- Maggie's List[83]
- Oil and Gas Workers' Association[84]
- Susan B. Anthony List[85]
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Lisa Murkowski (R) |
Kelly Tshibaka (R) |
Pat Chesbro (D) |
Buzz Kelley (R) |
Undecided / Not Ranked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[86] | October 19–22, 2022 | 1,276 (LV) | ±3.0% | ||||||
| 1 | 41% | 39% | 16% | 4% | — | ||||
| 2 | 42% | 41% | 17% | —[c] | — | ||||
| 3 | 56% | 44% | –[d] | — | |||||
| Alaska Survey Research[87] | September 25–27, 2022 | 1,282 (LV) | ±3.0% | ||||||
| 1 | 41% | 39% | 16% | 4% | — | ||||
| 2 | 42% | 41% | 17% | —[c] | — | ||||
| 3 | 57% | 43% | –[d] | — | |||||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[88][A] | September 6–11, 2022 | 1,050 (LV) | [e] | N/A[f] | 35% | 43% | 13% | 1% | 7% U |
| 1 | 38% | 46% | 14% | 2% | 7% NR | ||||
| 2 | 38% | 47% | 14% | –[g] | 8% NR | ||||
| 3 | 50% | 50% | –[h] | 10% NR |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
RCV count |
Pat Chesbro (D) |
Dustin Darden (AIP) |
Elvi Gray-Jackson (D) |
Al Gross (D/I) |
John Howe (AIP) |
Joe Miller (L) |
Lisa Murkowski (R) |
Sarah Palin (R) |
Kelly Tshibaka (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[89] | July 2–5, 2022 | 1,201 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 1 | 17% | 5% | – | 35% | – | 43% | – | ||||
| 2 | 20% | – | 36% | 45% | |||||||||||
| 3 | – | 52% | 48% | ||||||||||||
| Cygnal (R)[90][B] | March 14–16, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 1 | – | 29% | – | 45% | 26% | – | |||||
| ? | 49% | – | 51% | – | |||||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research[91] | October 22–27, 2021 | 969 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 1 | – | 22% | – | 35% | 20% | 23% | – | ||||
| 2 | 23% | 42% | – | 35% | |||||||||||
| 3 | – | 60% | 40% | ||||||||||||
| Alaska Survey Research[92] | July 11–21, 2021 | 947 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 1 | – | 19% | – | 18% | 36% | – | 27% | – | |||
| 2 | 21% | – | 39% | 40% | |||||||||||
| 3 | – | 55% | 45% | ||||||||||||
| Change Research (D)[93][C] | May 22–25, 2021 | 1,023 (LV) | ± 3.1% | BA | – | 25% | 4% | – | 19% | – | 39% | 1%[i] | 12% | ||
| 3[j] | 46% | – | – | 54% | – | ||||||||||
Lisa Murkowski vs. Kelly Tshibaka
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Lisa Murkowski (R) |
Kelly Tshibaka (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Survey Research[94] | April 16–21, 2022 | 1,208 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 55% | 45% | – |
Results
[edit]
| Party | Candidate | First choice | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | Transfer | Votes | % | ||||
| Republican | Lisa Murkowski (incumbent) | 113,495 | 43.37% | +623 | 114,118 | 43.39% | +1,641 | 115,759 | 44.49% | +20,571 | 136,330 | 53.70% | ||
| Republican | Kelly Tshibaka | 111,480 | 42.60% | +621 | 112,101 | 42.62% | +3,209 | 115,310 | 44.32% | +2,224 | 117,534 | 46.30% | ||
| Democratic | Pat Chesbro | 27,145 | 10.37% | +1,088 | 28,233 | 10.73% | +901 | 29,134 | 11.20% | −29,134 | Eliminated | |||
| Republican | Buzz Kelley (withdrew)[a] | 7,557 | 2.89% | +1,018 | 8,575 | 3.26% | −8,575 | Eliminated | ||||||
| Write-in | 2,028 | 0.77% | -2,028 | Eliminated | ||||||||||
| Total votes | 261,705 | 263,027 | 260,203 | 253,864 | ||||||||||
| Blank or inactive ballots | 3,770 | +2,824 | 6,594 | +6,339 | 12,933 | |||||||||
| Republican hold | ||||||||||||||
See also
[edit]- 2022 United States Senate elections
- 2022 United States House of Representatives election in Alaska
- 2022 Alaska gubernatorial election
- 2022 Alaska Senate election
- 2022 Alaska House of Representatives election
- 2022 Alaska elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b Remained on the ballot because he withdrew after the deadline of 64 days ahead of the election.[13]
- ^ a b c Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ a b Kelley eliminated.
- ^ a b Chesbro eliminated.
- ^ The margin of sampling error for the 500 statewide sample is ±4.4%; for the 840 total sample of voters 50+ is ±3.3%.
- ^ Standard polling question.
- ^ Kelley eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 29% to Tshibaka and 71% not ranked further.
- ^ Chesbro eliminated. Vote transfer breakdown: 77% to Murkowski, 8% to Tshibaka, and 15% not ranked further.
- ^ Would not vote with 1%
- ^ Excluding undecided voters
Partisan clients
- ^ Poll sponsored by AARP
- ^ This poll was sponsored by Kelly Tshibaka's campaign
- ^ This poll was sponsored by 314 Action
References
[edit]- ^ Gomez, Henry J. "Sen. Lisa Murkowski wins re-election in Alaska, fending off Trump-backed challenge after a ranked-choice runoff", NBC News (November 23, 2022).
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The state elections office says others who have registered for Senate include Dustin Darden with the Alaskan Independence Party, Huhnkie Lee, who is undeclared, and Republicans Samuel Little and Karl Speights.
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- ^ "Endorsed Candidates". proisraelamerica.org. Archived from the original on December 20, 2021. Retrieved January 22, 2022.
- ^ "Anti-Trump Republicans endorsing vulnerable Democrats to prevent GOP takeover". The Hill. October 14, 2021. Archived from the original on October 19, 2021. Retrieved October 14, 2021.
- ^ Hall, Joelle; Bradley, Neil (October 18, 2022). "Opinion: Murkowski is a champion for workers and our economy". Anchorage Daily News. Retrieved 2022-12-19.
- ^ Brooks, James (June 23, 2022). "Alaska AFL-CIO endorses Walker, Murkowski, Peltola". Archived from the original on June 27, 2022. Retrieved June 27, 2022.
- ^ Axelrod, Tal (June 18, 2021). "Trump endorses Murkowski challenger". The Hill. Archived from the original on August 21, 2022. Retrieved June 18, 2021.
- ^ "Gov. Kristi Noem endorsing Kelly Tshibaka for Senate". May 12, 2022. Archived from the original on May 28, 2022. Retrieved May 28, 2022.
- ^ "Trump rallies his Alaska faithful against Murkowski, for Tshibaka and Palin". alaskapublic.org. July 9, 2022. Retrieved October 31, 2022.
- ^ "Trump-endorsed Kelly Tshibaka won on Wednesday the endorsement of Edgar Blatchford, a former U.S. Senate Democrat candidate and mayor of Seward". Twitter. September 7, 2022. Retrieved November 6, 2022.
- ^ Surreal ValeCity (April 5, 2021). "Former Republican Chairmen endorse Kelly Tshibaka". www.surrealvalecity.com. Archived from the original on April 9, 2021. Retrieved April 7, 2021.
- ^ "Notes from the trail: Walker picks up new co-chairs". July 23, 2022. Archived from the original on July 25, 2022. Retrieved July 25, 2022.
- ^ Downing, Suzanne (August 6, 2021). "Donald Trump Jr. jumps in, supports Kelly Tshibaka for Senate". Must Read Alaska. Archived from the original on August 10, 2021. Retrieved August 10, 2021.
- ^ "POLITICAL CANDIDATE SURVEY AND ENDORSEMENTS". alaskaoutdoorcouncil.org. June 30, 2022. Retrieved November 8, 2022.
- ^ Celine Castronuovo (July 10, 2021). "Alaska GOP endorses Murkowski primary challenger". The Hill. Archived from the original on July 10, 2021. Retrieved July 10, 2021.
- ^ Bratton, Regina (September 29, 2021). "The Conservative Political Action Coalition (CPAC) today announced its endorsement Kelly Tshibaka for U.S. Senator of the State of Alaska". American Conservative Union. Archived from the original on June 26, 2022. Retrieved June 26, 2022.
- ^ "Endorsed Candidates". Campaign for Working Families. Archived from the original on November 30, 2020. Retrieved August 3, 2022.
- ^ "FRC Action PAC Endorses Kelly Tshibaka for U.S. Senate in Alaska". June 27, 2022. Archived from the original on August 13, 2022. Retrieved August 13, 2022.
- ^ Manchester, Julia (December 22, 2021). "Conservative women's group backing Murkowski challenger". The Hill. Archived from the original on December 22, 2021. Retrieved December 22, 2021.
- ^ Downing, Suzanne (March 9, 2022). "Oil and Gas Workers Association endorses Tshibaka". Mustreadalaska.com. Archived from the original on March 12, 2022. Retrieved March 18, 2022.
- ^ "Tshibaka endorsed by leading national pro-life women's group". alaskawatchman.com. September 22, 2022. Retrieved October 31, 2022.
- ^ Alaska Survey Research
- ^ Alaska Survey Research
- ^ Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)
- ^ Alaska Survey Research
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Alaska Survey Research
- ^ Alaska Survey Research
- ^ Change Research (D)
- ^ Alaska Survey Research
- ^ "State of Alaska 2022 General Election RCV Detailed Report" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. November 30, 2022. Retrieved January 9, 2023.
- ^ "State of Alaska 2022 GENERAL ELECTION Election Summary Report" (PDF). Alaska Division of Elections. November 30, 2022. Retrieved January 8, 2023.
External links
[edit]Official campaign websites