2006 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona
(Redirected from Arizona's 1st congressional district election, 2006)
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All 8 Arizona seats to the United States House of Representatives | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Arizona |
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The 2006 congressional elections in Arizona were elections for Arizona's delegation to the United States House of Representatives, which occurred along with congressional elections nationwide on November 7, 2006. Arizona has eight seats, as apportioned during the 2000 United States census. Prior to the election, Republicans held six of the eight seats and Democrats held two.[1] In the 8th district, Republican Congressman Jim Kolbe retired, leaving an open seat. Following the elections, Democrats gained two seats at the expense of the Republicans, who lost two.
Overview
[edit]Statewide
[edit]| Party | Candidates | Votes | Seats | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | % | No. | +/– | % | |||
| Republican | 8 | 771,246 | 51.65 | 4 |  2
|
50.00 | |
| Democratic | 7 | 627,259 | 42.01 | 4 |  2
|
50.00 | |
| Libertarian | 8 | 90,214 | 6.04 | 0 | 
|
0.0 | |
| Independent | 1 | 4,408 | 0.30 | 0 |
|
0.0 | |
| Write-in | 4 | 24 | 0.00 | 0 |
|
0.0 | |
| Total | 28 | 1,493,151 | 100.0 | 8 |
|
100.0 | |
By district
[edit]Results of the 2008 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona by district:
| District | Republican | Democratic | Libertarian | Others | Total | Result | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | ||
| District 1 | 105,646 | 51.75% | 88,691 | 43.45% | 9,802 | 4.80% | 0 | 0.00% | 204,139 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
| District 2 | 135,150 | 58.62% | 89,671 | 38.89% | 5,734 | 2.49% | 5 | 0.00% | 230,560 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
| District 3 | 112,519 | 59.27% | 72,586 | 38.23% | 4,744 | 2.50% | 0 | 0.00% | 189,849 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
| District 4 | 18,627 | 23.92% | 56,464 | 72.52% | 2,770 | 3.56% | 0 | 0.00% | 77,861 | 100.0% | Democratic hold |
| District 5 | 93,815 | 46.44% | 101,838 | 50.41% | 6,357 | 3.15% | 0 | 0.00% | 202,010 | 100.0% | Democratic gain |
| District 6 | 152,201 | 74.80% | 0 | 0.00% | 51,285 | 25.20% | 0 | 0.00% | 203,486 | 100.0% | Republican hold |
| District 7 | 46,498 | 35.35% | 80,354 | 61.09% | 4,673 | 3.55% | 0 | 0.00% | 131,525 | 100.0% | Democratic hold |
| District 8 | 106,790 | 42.09% | 137,655 | 54.25% | 4,849 | 1.91% | 4,427 | 1.74% | 253,721 | 100.0% | Democratic gain |
| Total | 771,246 | 51.65% | 627,259 | 42.01% | 90,214 | 6.04% | 4,432 | 0.30% | 1,493,151 | 100.0% | |
District 1
[edit] | |||||||||||||||||
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 County results Renzi: 40–50% 50-60% 60–70% Simon: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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The normally Republican 1st district, based in the region north of Phoenix and Tucson and one of the largest districts by land area in the country, had been represented by Republican Rick Renzi since his initial election in 2002.
Republican primary
[edit]Renzi faced ethical problems in this election and was named by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington as one of the most corrupt candidates running for office that year.[2]
Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Rick Renzi, incumbent U.S. Representative
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rick Renzi | 37,644 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 37,644 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Ellen Simon, attorney and activist
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Mike Caccioppoli, former radio correspondent[4]
- Bob Donahue, businessman and candidate for this seat in 2004[5]
- Susan Friedman, marketing director[6]
- Vic McKerlie, dentist[7]
Withdrawn
[edit]- Jack Jackson Jr., former state representative[8]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ellen Simon | 20,273 | 52.8 | |
| Democratic | Susan Friedman | 7,062 | 18.4 | |
| Democratic | Bob Donahue | 5,927 | 15.4 | |
| Democratic | Mike Caccioppoli | 3,635 | 9.5 | |
| Democratic | Vic McKerlie | 1,512 | 3.9 | |
| Total votes | 38,409 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- David Schlosser, public relations manager[9]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | David Schlosser | 606 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 606 | 100.0 | ||
General election
[edit]Campaign
[edit]Attorney and community activist Ellen Simon emerged as the Democratic nominee, and though she initially trailed Renzi by wide margins she made up much a large amount of ground and closed the gap, causing many to consider the race competitive.[10] Simon challenged Renzi to a series of eight debates, to which Renzi responded by attacking Simon's husband for being behind on child support payments to his ex-wife.[11][12]
On 24 October, federal officials opened an inquiry into Renzi. It began when a local landowner filed a complaint that said that Renzi had pressured him into buying land he owned in exchange for his support on the landowner's petition with the federal government for a land swap. When that landowner refused, Renzi sold the land to a second company, who funneled the $200,000 payment ($312,000 adjusted for inflation) through a wine company his father owned.[13] Fortunately for Renzi some of these details didn't come to light until after the election.
Endorsements
[edit]Rick Renzi (R)
Federal officials
Ellen Simon (D)
State officials
- Albert Hale, state representative[15]
Organizations
Newspapers and publications
Individuals
- Wesley Clark, General, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, 2004 democratic presidential candidate[18]
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Rick Renzi (R) |
Ellen Simon (D) |
David Schlosser (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics[19] | October 24–26, 2006 | 1,037 (LV) | ±?% | 48% | 46% | 4% | 3% |
| Northern Arizona University[20] | October 20–22, 2006 | 403 (LV) | ±5.0% | 45% | 32% | 2% | 21% |
| RT Strategies and Constituent Dynamics[21] | October 8–10, 2006 | 983 (LV) | ±?% | 46% | 51% | 2% | 2% |
| Northern Arizona University[22] | September 15–17, 2006 | 403 (LV) | ±5.0% | 45% | 32% | 2% | 21% |
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[23] | Tossup | November 6, 2006 |
| Rothenberg[24] | Tilt R | November 6, 2006 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[25] | Tilt R | November 6, 2006 |
| Real Clear Politics[26] | Lean R | November 7, 2006 |
| CQ Politics[27] | Tossup | November 7, 2006 |
Results
[edit]Renzi won re-election by an eight-point margin, despite the strong Democratic performance nationwide.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rick Renzi (incumbent) | 105,646 | 51.8 | |
| Democratic | Ellen Simon | 88,691 | 43.5 | |
| Libertarian | David Schlosser | 9,802 | 4.8 | |
| Total votes | 204,139 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
District 2
[edit] | |||||||||||||||||
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 County results Thrasher: 60-70% 70-80% Franks: 50–60% 60-70% | |||||||||||||||||
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The heavily conservative and gerrymandered District 2, which owed its strange shape to the decision to not have Hopi and Navajo Native Americans represented by the same congressman due to historic tensions between them, had been represented by Republican Trent Franks since his initial election in 2002. Franks had been re-elected comfortably in the intervening years due to the conservative nature of the Phoenix suburbs that the district pulled from.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Trent Franks, incumbent U.S. Representative
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Trent Franks (incumbent) | 51,386 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 51,386 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- John Thrasher, educator[29]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Suchindran Chatterjee, engineer and educator[29]
- Gene Scharer, educator and nominee for this seat in 2000[29]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | John Trasher | 11,521 | 46.7 | |
| Democratic | Gene Scharer | 8,462 | 34.3 | |
| Democratic | Suchindran Chatterjee | 4,667 | 18.9 | |
| Total votes | 24,650 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Powell Gamill, molecular biologist[30]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Powell Gammill | 494 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 494 | 100.0 | ||
Independents
[edit]- William Crum (write-in), blogger[31]
General election
[edit]Campaign
[edit]Franks faced Democratic challenger John Thrasher, a music teacher who based his campaign around anti-corruption and immigration reform.[32]
Results
[edit]Franks comfortably won re-election, albeit by a smaller margin than usual.[33]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Trent Franks (incumbent) | 135,150 | 58.6 | |
| Democratic | John Thrasher | 89,671 | 38.9 | |
| Libertarian | Powell Gammill | 5,734 | 2.5 | |
| Write-In | William Crum | 5 | 0.0 | |
| Total votes | 230,560 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
District 3
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 County results Shadegg: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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The staunchly conservative 3rd district, based in the northern portion of Phoenix and its northern suburbs, had been represented by incumbent Republican John Shadegg since his initial election in 1994.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- John Shadegg, incumbent U.S. Representative
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Shadegg (incumbent) | 35,763 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 35,763 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Herb Paine, consultant
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Don Chilton, retired engineer[34]
- Jim McCoy
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Herb Paine | 7,902 | 50.4 | |
| Democratic | Don Chilton | 7,759 | 49.5 | |
| Democratic | Jim McCoy | 12 | 0.1 | |
| Total votes | 15,673 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Mark Yannone, businessman[35]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Mark Yannone | 322 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 322 | 100.0 | ||
General election
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Herb Paine (D)
Individuals
- Wesley Clark, General, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, 2004 democratic presidential candidate[36]
Results
[edit]True to the district's conservative nature, Shadegg defeated Paine by a wide margin, though it was significantly reduced from his 2004 margin.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John Shadegg (incumbent) | 112,519 | 59.3 | |
| Democratic | Herb Paine | 72,586 | 38.2 | |
| Libertarian | Mark Yannone | 4,744 | 2.5 | |
| Total votes | 189,849 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
District 4
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 County results Pastor: 70-80% | |||||||||||||||||
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The heavily liberal 4th district, based in the southern portion of Phoenix and its southern suburbs, had a high Hispanic-American population. Incumbent Democrat Ed Pastor had represented this portion of the state since a special election in 1991 to replace Mo Udall.
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Ed Pastor, incumbent U.S. Representative
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ed Pastor (incumbent) | 14,833 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 14,833 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Don Karg, aerospace executive
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Don Karg | 7,175 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 7,175 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Ronald Harders, write-in candidate[28]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Ronald Harders | 12 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 12 | 100.0 | ||
General election
[edit]Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Ed Pastor (incumbent) | 56,464 | 72.5 | |
| Republican | Don Karg | 18,627 | 23.9 | |
| Libertarian | Ronald Harders | 2,770 | 3.6 | |
| Total votes | 77,861 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
District 5
[edit] | |||||||||||||||||
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 County results Mitchell: 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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The conservative-leaning 5th district included a small portion of Phoenix and many of its northeastern suburbs, such as Scottsdale and Tempe. Republican J. D. Hayworth had represented the area since his initial election in 1994 and many considered him to be vulnerable to a Democratic challenger.
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- J. D. Hayworth, incumbent U.S. Representative
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | J. D. Hayworth (incumbent) | 38,275 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 38,275 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Harry Mitchell, a former Mayor of Tempe, State Senator, and Chairman of the Democratic Party of Arizona, emerged as the Democrats' leading challenger to Hayworth.
Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Harry Mitchell, chair of the Democratic Party of Arizona former state senator and former Mayor of Tempe
Endorsements
[edit]Harry Mitchell (D)
Individuals
- Wesley Clark, General, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, 2004 democratic presidential candidate[37]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Harry Mitchell | 20,852 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 20,852 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Warren Severin, businessman[38]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Warren Severin | 387 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 100.0 | |||
General election
[edit]Debates
[edit]- Complete video of debate, September 1, 2006
- Complete video of debate, October 17, 2006
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
J. D. Hayworth (R) |
Harry Mitchell (D) |
Warren Severin (L) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA[39] | October 29–31, 2006 | 643 (LV) | ±3.9% | 46% | 48% | 4% | 2% |
| Bennett, Petts & Normington (D)[40] | October 18–19, 2006 | 400 (LV) | ±?% | 47% | 46% | – | 7% |
| SurveyUSA[41] | October 13–15, 2006 | 509 (LV) | ±4.4% | 48% | 45% | 5% | 2% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[42] | September 18–19, 2006 | 400 (LV) | ±?% | 52% | 38% | – | 10% |
| SurveyUSA[43] | September 15–17, 2006 | 590 (LV) | ±4.1% | 52% | 40% | 4% | 4% |
| Grove Insight (D)[44] | September 12–14, 2006 | 400 (LV) | ±?% | 37% | 40% | – | 23% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[42] | June 6–10, 2006 | 400 (LV) | ±?% | 49% | 34% | – | 17% |
| SurveyUSA[45] | May 5–8, 2006 | 600 (RV) | ±4.1% | 50% | 45% | – | 5% |
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[23] | Tossup | November 6, 2006 |
| Rothenberg[24] | Tilt D (flip) | November 6, 2006 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[25] | Tilt D (flip) | November 6, 2006 |
| Real Clear Politics[26] | Tossup | November 7, 2006 |
| CQ Politics[27] | Tossup | November 7, 2006 |
Results
[edit]The race was close for much of the fall, and Mitchell ultimately edged out Hayworth on election day by a four-point margin and was elected to his first term in Congress.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Harry Mitchell | 101,838 | 50.4 | |||
| Republican | J. D. Hayworth (incumbent) | 93,815 | 46.4 | |||
| Libertarian | Warren Severin | 6,357 | 3.2 | |||
| Total votes | 202,010 | 100.0 | ||||
| Democratic gain from Republican | ||||||
District 6
[edit] | |||||||||||||||||
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 County results Flake: 70–80% | |||||||||||||||||
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The heavily conservative 6th district, based in the eastern suburbs of Phoenix, had been represented by Republican Congressman Jeff Flake since his initial election in 2000.
Republican primary
[edit]Flake had built up a repertoire in Congress as being a staunch fiscal conservative and an anti-earmark advocate.
Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Jeff Flake, incumbent U.S. Representative[28]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jeff Flake (incumbent) | 43,199 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 43,199 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]No Democrat filed.
Libertarian primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Jason M. Blair[28]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Jason M. Blair | 19 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 19 | 100.0 | ||
General election
[edit]Results
[edit]Flake faced no Democratic opponent and was overwhelmingly re-elected to his fourth term in Congress over Libertarian candidate Jason Blair.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Jeff Flake (incumbent) | 152,201 | 74.8 | |
| Libertarian | Jason M. Blair | 51,285 | 25.2 | |
| Total votes | 203,486 | 100.0 | ||
| Republican hold | ||||
District 7
[edit] | |||||||||||||||||
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 County results Grijalva: 40-50% 70-80% Drake: 40-50% 50–60% | |||||||||||||||||
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The heavily Democratic 7th district, based in southwestern Arizona and covering much of the state's border with Mexico, had a majority Hispanic-American population and had been represented by Democratic Congressman Raúl Grijalva since 2003.
Democratic primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Raúl Grijalva, incumbent U.S. Representative
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Raúl Grijalva | 26,604 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 26,604 | 100.0 | ||
Republican primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Ron Drake, former Mayor of Avondale
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Joseph Sweeney, perennial candidate[46]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ron Drake | 11,521 | 57.7 | |
| Republican | Joseph Sweeney | 8,462 | 42.3 | |
| Total votes | 19,983 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Joe Cobb, political advisor and economic instructor[47]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | Joe Cobb | 13 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 13 | 100.0 | ||
General election
[edit]Grijalva faced the former Mayor of Avondale, Republican Ron Drake, and Libertarian write-in candidate Joe Cobb.
Candidates
[edit]Results
[edit]Grijalva defeated both Drake and Cobb by a comfortable margin.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Raúl Grijalva (incumbent) | 80,354 | 61.1 | |
| Republican | Ron Drake | 46,498 | 35.4 | |
| Libertarian | Joe Cobb | 4,673 | 3.6 | |
| Total votes | 131,525 | 100.0 | ||
| Democratic hold | ||||
District 8
[edit] | |||||||||||||||||
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 County results Giffords: 50–60% Graf: 50-60% | |||||||||||||||||
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Long-serving Republican Congressman Jim Kolbe, a respected moderate and an openly gay man, declined to seek a seventh term in Congress and thus created an open seat. The marginally conservative 8th district, based in southeastern Arizona, had narrowly supported George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004 and the election was considered to be competitive.
Republican primary
[edit]Former State Representative Randy Graf, who was heavily conservative and had challenged Kolbe in the Republican primary in 2004, defeated the more moderate Steve Huffman, a state representative, in the primary, in spite of ad buys in favor of Huffman by national Republicans.[48][49]
Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Randy Graf, former state representative and candidate for this seat in 2004
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Frank Antenori, U.S. Army veteran[50]
- Mike Hellon, former chair of the Arizona Republican Party[51]
- Steve Huffman, state representative
- Michael T. Jenkins, automobile repair shop owner[52]
Declined
[edit]Endorsements
[edit]Steve Huffman
U.S. Representatives
Organizations
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Randy Graf | 27,063 | 41.6 | |
| Republican | Steve Huffman | 24,119 | 37.1 | |
| Republican | Mike Hellon | 9,095 | 14.0 | |
| Republican | Frank Antenori | 2,724 | 4.2 | |
| Republican | Michael T. Jenkins | 2,075 | 3.2 | |
| Total votes | 65,076 | 100.0 | ||
Democratic primary
[edit]Former State Senator Gabby Giffords, a moderate Democrat, triumphed against several Democrats, the most notable of which was television anchor Patty Weiss,[48] in the primary, and thus she and Graf faced off against each other in the general election.
Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- Gabby Giffords, former state senator
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- William Daniel Johnson, white nationalist activist[56]
- Jeffrey Lynn Latas, U.S. Air Force veteran[57]
- Alex Rodriguez, member of the Tucson Unified School District board[58]
- Francine Shacter, former Democratic precinct chairwoman[59]
- Patty Weiss, television anchor[60]
Endorsements
[edit]Gabby Giffords
Individuals
- Wesley Clark, General, former Supreme Allied Commander Europe, 2004 democratic presidential candidate[61]
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gabby Giffords | 33,375 | 54.3 | |
| Democratic | Patty Weiss | 19,148 | 31.2 | |
| Democratic | Jeffrey Lynn Latas | 3,687 | 6.0 | |
| Democratic | Alex Rodriguez | 2,855 | 4.6 | |
| Democratic | William Daniel Johnson | 1,768 | 2.9 | |
| Democratic | Francine Shacter | 576 | 0.9 | |
| Total votes | 61,409 | 100.0 | ||
Libertarian primary
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominee
[edit]- David Nolan, co-founder of the Libertarian Party
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Libertarian | David F. Nolan | 516 | 100.0 | |
| Total votes | 516 | 100.0 | ||
Independents
[edit]- Russ Dove (write-in), militiaman; campaign manager for William Daniel Johnson[62][56]
- Leo F. Kimminau (write-in)[28]
- Paul Price (write-in)[28]
- Jay Quick (Independent), geologist and businessman[63]
General election
[edit]Campaign
[edit]Giffords was the tentative favorite for most of the election, as many moderates were turned off by Graf's conservative views and Kolbe did not endorse him as the Republican candidate.[64]
Debates
[edit]| 2006 Arizona's 8th congressional district general election debates | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | Date & time | Host | Moderator | Link | Participants | ||||||||||
| Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee |
|||||||||||||||
| Jay Quick | David F. Nolan | Gabby Giffords | Randy Graf | ||||||||||||
| 1[65] | October 17, 2006 | Access Tucson Arizona Daily Star |
Joe Birchall | Video[66] | P | P | P | P | |||||||
Polling
[edit]| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Randy Graf (R) |
Gabby Giffords (D) |
Others | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuters/Zogby[67] | October 24–29, 2006 | 500 (LV) | ±4.5% | 41% | 53% | 2% | 4% |
| Wick Communications[68] | October 25–28, 2006 | 400 (LV) | ±?% | 35% | 50% | 4% | 11% |
| Zimmerman & Associates and Marketing Intelligence (Arizona Daily Star/KVOA)[69] | October 20–23, 2006 | 600 (LV) | ±4.0% | 38% | 48% | 4% | 10% |
| Reuters/Zogby[70] | September 25 – October 2, 2006 | 500 (LV) | ±4.5% | 37% | 45% | 2% | 16% |
| Bennett, Petts & Normington (D)[71] | September 19–21, 2006 | 400 (LV) | ±?% | 29% | 54% | – | 17% |
| Zimmerman & Associates and Marketing Intelligence (Arizona Daily Star/KVOA)[72] | September 16–19, 2006 | 600 (LV) | ±4.0% | 36% | 48% | 3% | 13% |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (D-Giffords)[73] | September 9–13, 2006 | 500 (LV) | ±4.0% | 35% | 54% | 5% | 6% |
| Zimmerman & Associates and Marketing Intelligence (Arizona Daily Star)[74] | September 1–4, 2006 | 800 (LV) | ±4.9% | 36% | 46% | – | 19% |
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[23] | Lean D (flip) | November 6, 2006 |
| Rothenberg[24] | Likely D (flip) | November 6, 2006 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[25] | Likely D (flip) | November 6, 2006 |
| Real Clear Politics[26] | Lean D (flip) | November 7, 2006 |
| CQ Politics[27] | Likely D (flip) | November 7, 2006 |
Results
[edit]On election day, Giffords emerged victorious over Graf by a comfortable twelve-point margin and won her first term in Congress.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Gabby Giffords | 137,655 | 54.3 | |||
| Republican | Randy Graf | 106,790 | 42.1 | |||
| Libertarian | David F. Nolan | 4,849 | 1.9 | |||
| Independent | Jay Dudley Quick | 4,408 | 1.7 | |||
| Write-ins | Russ Dove | 7 | 0.0 | |||
| Write-ins | Leo F. Kimminau | 7 | 0.0 | |||
| Write-ins | Paul Price | 5 | 0.0 | |||
| Total votes | 253,720 | 100.0 | ||||
| Democratic gain from Republican | ||||||
References
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- ^ Video
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- ^ Reuters/Zogby
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- ^ Zimmerman & Associates and Marketing Intelligence (Arizona Daily Star)
