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2016 Oregon gubernatorial special election

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2016 Oregon gubernatorial special election
← 2014 November 8, 2016 2018 →
 
Nominee Kate Brown Bud Pierce
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Working Families
Popular vote 985,027 845,609
Percentage 50.6% 43.5%
Brown:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Pierce:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
Tie:      40–50%      No data
Governor before election

Kate Brown
Democratic

Elected Governor

Kate Brown
Democratic

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The 2016 Oregon gubernatorial special election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the Governor of Oregon, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives, other gubernatorial elections and various state and local elections.

The election determined who would fill the remaining two years of the term of Democratic governor John Kitzhaber, who was re-elected in 2014 and resigned in February 2015. Incumbent Democratic governor Kate Brown, who as Oregon Secretary of State succeeded to the governorship, ran for election to the office. In primary elections held on May 17, Brown easily captured the Democratic nomination, and the Republicans picked Salem oncologist Bud Pierce.

Brown won the election and became the first openly LGBT person elected to a term as governor in U.S. history. This election was the first time since 1990 that a woman was elected Governor of Oregon. As of 2024, it was also the last gubernatorial special election in the U.S., excluding recall elections.

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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  • Julian Bell, critical care and pulmonary medicine specialist[1]
  • Kate Brown, incumbent governor[2]
  • Chet Chance, professional driver[3]
  • Kevin M. Forsythe, Walmart employee[3]
  • Steve Johnson, health worker[3][4]
  • Dave Stauffer, environmental engineer[3]

Declined

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Results

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Results by county:
  Brown
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Oregon gubernatorial special election, 2016 Democratic primary[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Kate Brown (incumbent) 494,890 83.03
Democratic Julian Bell 49,313 8.27
Democratic Dave Stauffer 16,108 2.70
Democratic Steve Johnson 13,363 2.24
Democratic Kevin M. Forsythe 10,147 1.70
Democratic Chet Chance 5,636 0.95
Democratic Write-ins 6,595 1.11
Total votes 596,052 100.00

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Declared

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Declined

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Polling

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Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Allen
Alley 		Bruce
Cuff 		Bob
Forthan 		Bob
Neimeyer 		Bud
Pierce 		Undecided
DHM Research[24] May 6–9, 2016 324 ± 5.7% 22% 3% 1% 5% 25% 44%

Results

[edit]
Results by county:
  Pierce
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Alley
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Oregon gubernatorial special election, 2016 Republican primary[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican William C. Pierce 171,158 47.66
Republican Allen Alley 103,388 28.79
Republican Bruce Cuff 41,598 11.58
Republican Bob Niemeyer 35,669 9.93
Republican Bob Forthan 4,290 1.19
Republican Write-ins 3,020 0.84
Total votes 359,123 100.00

Independent Party primary

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The Independent Party of Oregon officially qualified as a major party on August 17, 2015.[25]

Candidates

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Declared

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  • Patrick Barney[3]
  • Cliff Thomason, realtor[3]

Declined

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Results

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Results by county. Blue indicates a win by Thomason, yellow a win by Barney.
Oregon gubernatorial special election, 2016 Independent primary[8]
Party Candidate Votes %
Independent Party Cliff Thomason 9,806 34.89
Independent Party Patrick Barney 6,840 24.34
Independent Party Write-ins 11,460 40.77
Total votes 28,106 100.00

Minor parties

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General election

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Debates

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Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[30] Likely D August 12, 2016
Daily Kos[31] Safe D November 8, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[32] Safe D November 3, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[33] Safe D November 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics[34] Likely D November 1, 2016
Governing[35] Safe D October 27, 2016

Polling

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Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Kate
Brown (D) 		Bud
Pierce (R) 		Other/Undecided
[a] 		Margin
Real Clear Politics[36] October 4–29, 2016 October 29, 2016 45.5% 35.5% 19.0% Brown +10.0%
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Kate
Brown (D) 		Bud
Pierce (R) 		Cliff
Thomason (I) 		James
Foster (L) 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey[37] November 1–7, 2016 1,595 ± 4.6% 56% 41% — — — 3%
SurveyMonkey[38] October 31 – November 6, 2016 1,483 ± 4.6% 56% 40% — — — 4%
SurveyMonkey[39] October 28 – November 3, 2016 1,150 ± 4.6% 56% 40% — — — 4%
SurveyMonkey[40] October 27 – November 2, 2016 934 ± 4.6% 55% 41% — — — 4%
SurveyMonkey[41] October 26 – November 1, 2016 809 ± 4.6% 54% 41% — — — 5%
SurveyMonkey[42] October 25–31, 2016 743 ± 4.6% 54% 42% — — — 4%
FOX 12 Oregon/DHM Research[43] October 24–29, 2016 504 ± 4.4% 42% 33% 4% 3% 4% 15%
Clout Research (R)[44] October 20–21, 2016 928 ± 3.2% 45% 43% — — 6% 6%
KGW Oregonian/Riley Research[45] October 4–14, 2016 608 ± 4.0% 48% 34% — — — 13%
Oregon Public Broadcasting/DHM Research[46] October 6–13, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 46% 33% 4% 3% — 12%
KATU-TV/SurveyUSA[47] October 10–12, 2016 654 ± 3.9% 46% 42% — — 4% 8%
iCitizen[48] September 2–7, 2016 610 ± 4.0% 44% 27% 3% 3% — 23%
KATU-TV/DHM Research[49] September 1–6, 2016 517 ± 4.3% 43% 35% — — — 18%
Clout Research (R)[50] July 9–13, 2016 701 ± 3.7% 43% 42% 5% 2% — 7%
iCitizen[51] June 23–27, 2016 555 ± 4.0% 42% 35% — — — 23%
Action Solutions[52]→ June 1–2, 2016 600 ± 5.7% 39% 37% — — — 24%
Moore Information[53] April 20, 2015 500 ± 4.0% 45% 27% — — — 28%

→ Indicates an internal poll conducted on behalf of Bud Pierce.

Hypothetical polling

with Allen Alley

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Kate
Brown (D) 		Allen
Alley (R) 		Other Undecided
Moore Information[53] April 20, 2015 500 ± 4.0% 47% 32% — 21%

with Shane Bemis

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Kate
Brown (D) 		Shane
Bemis (R) 		Other Undecided
Moore Information[53] April 20, 2015 500 ± 4.0% 45% 26% — 28%

with Dennis Richardson

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size 		Margin of
error 		Kate
Brown (D) 		Dennis
Richardson (R) 		Other Undecided
Moore Information[53] April 20, 2015 500 ± 4.0% 48% 41% — 12%

Results

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Oregon gubernatorial special election, 2016 [54]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Kate Brown (incumbent) 985,027 50.62% +0.73%
Republican Bud Pierce 845,609 43.45% −0.68%
Independent Party Cliff Thomason 47,481 2.44% N/A
Libertarian James Foster 45,191 2.32% +0.83%
Constitution Aaron Donald Auer 19,400 1.00% −0.08%
Write-in 3,338 0.17% -0.28%
Total votes 1,946,046 100.00% N/A
Democratic hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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By congressional district

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Brown won 3 of 5 congressional districts. Pierce won the other two, including one that elected a Democrat.

District Kate
Brown 		Bud
Pierce 		Elected
Representative
1st 53.68% 40.52% Suzanne Bonamici
2nd 38.14% 55.10% Greg Walden
3rd 68.44% 26.31% Earl Blumenauer
4th 46.87% 46.41% Peter DeFazio
5th 45.46% 49.43% Kurt Schrader

Notes

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  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.

References

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  1. ^ Mortensen, Camilla (October 1, 2015). "Climate Change Fuels a Run For Governor". Eugene Weekly. Archived from the original on October 5, 2015. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  2. ^ Theriault, Denis C. (September 18, 2015) "Kate Brown makes clear she's running for governor", The Oregonian. Retrieved September 18, 2015.
  3. ^ a b c d e f Kullgren, Ian (March 9, 2016). "Election 2016: Who's running for office in Oregon? Portland? We've got your list right here". The Oregonian. Retrieved April 7, 2016.
  4. ^ "Steve Johnson 2016 | Home". sbjforgovernor.org. Archived from the original on March 31, 2016. Retrieved June 6, 2022.
  5. ^ a b c Topaz, Jonathan (February 13, 2015). "Meet Kate Brown". Politico. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  6. ^ Theriault, Denis C. (October 6, 2015). "Oregon labor commissioner announces run for secretary of state". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  7. ^ Schmidt, Brad (September 9, 2015). "Ted Wheeler: 'I'm running for mayor of Portland'". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  8. ^ a b c "May 17, 2016 Primary Election Results". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved June 18, 2016.
  9. ^ Theriault, Denis C. (March 7, 2016). "Shakeup in governor's race: Allen Alley wants Republican nomination". The Oregonian. Retrieved March 7, 2016.
  10. ^ a b Friedman, Gordeon (March 2, 2016). "Report: Allen Alley running for Oregon governor". KGW. Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2016.
  11. ^ Theriault, Denis C. (September 29, 2015). "Another Republican has filed for the 2016 Oregon governor's race". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  12. ^ "About Our Clinic". Hematology Oncology of Salem. Archived from the original on July 15, 2011. Retrieved January 28, 2016.
  13. ^ Gray, Chris (September 24, 2015). "The Lund Report". The Lund Report. Retrieved January 28, 2016.
  14. ^ Kullgren, Ian K. (March 16, 2015). "Republican doctor from Salem contemplates gubernatorial run". The Oregonian. Retrieved March 16, 2015.
  15. ^ "Kate Brown confirms she'll run for governor". The Associated Press. September 18, 2015. Retrieved September 18, 2015.
  16. ^ a b Forrester, Steve (April 19, 2015). "Middle-ground Republican could give Brown a race". The Daily Astorian. Retrieved April 21, 2015.
  17. ^ Anderson, Taylor W. (July 13, 2015). "Buehler says he may run for Oregon governor in 2016". The Bulletin. Retrieved July 13, 2015.
  18. ^ Theriault, Denis C. (August 25, 2015). "Knute Buehler says he won't run for governor, wants to stay in House". The Oregonian. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  19. ^ Glucklich, Elon (June 30, 2015). "Lane County Commissioner Sid Leiken out of Oregon governor's race, seeks Secretary of State post instead". The Register-Guard. Archived from the original on July 16, 2015. Retrieved July 13, 2015.
  20. ^ Hubbard, Saul (April 21, 2015). "GOP Rep. Julie Parrish announces that she won't run for statewide office in 2016, despite speculation that she will #orleg #orpol". Twitter. Retrieved April 21, 2015.
  21. ^ Anderson, Taylor W. (August 28, 2015). "Dennis Richardson 'not interested in running' in 2016". The Bend Bulletin. Retrieved October 6, 2015.
  22. ^ Theriault, Denis C. (April 23, 2015). "Election 2016: Linn County Republican says she's been 'approached' for governor's race". The Oregonian. Retrieved April 23, 2015.
  23. ^ "Monica Wehby says she won't run for governor in 2016 after all". OregonLive. September 2, 2015.
  24. ^ DHM Research Archived 2016-05-19 at the Wayback Machine
  25. ^ Mapes, Jeff (August 17, 2015). "Independent Party of Oregon qualifies as a major party". The Oregonian. Retrieved August 18, 2015.
  26. ^ Borrud, Hillary (August 16, 2015). "Johnson tour sparks speculation she's running for governor". East Oregonian. Retrieved August 18, 2015.
  27. ^ a b "Candidate Filings" (pdf). Retrieved July 30, 2016.
  28. ^ "Aaron Donald Auer". Constitution Party of Oregon. Archived from the original on August 16, 2016. Retrieved July 30, 2016.
  29. ^ "James Foster". Libertarian Party of Oregon. Archived from the original on May 18, 2016. Retrieved July 30, 2016.
  30. ^ "2016 Governor Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  31. ^ "Elections 2015-16". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 15, 2018.[permanent dead link]
  32. ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  33. ^ "Our Final 2016 picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 15, 2018. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  34. ^ "2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 15, 2018.
  35. ^ "2016 Governors Races Ratings & News". Governing Magazine. Archived from the original on October 27, 2016. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
  36. ^ Real Clear Politics
  37. ^ SurveyMonkey
  38. ^ SurveyMonkey
  39. ^ SurveyMonkey
  40. ^ SurveyMonkey
  41. ^ SurveyMonkey
  42. ^ SurveyMonkey
  43. ^ FOX 12 Oregon/DHM Research Archived 2016-11-02 at the Wayback Machine
  44. ^ Clout Research (R)
  45. ^ KGW Oregonian/Riley Research Archived 2016-10-20 at the Wayback Machine
  46. ^ Oregon Public Broadcasting/DHM Research Archived 2016-10-18 at the Wayback Machine
  47. ^ KATU-TV/SurveyUSA
  48. ^ iCitizen
  49. ^ KATU-TV/DHM Research
  50. ^ Clout Research (R)
  51. ^ iCitizen
  52. ^ Action Solutions Archived 2016-06-22 at the Wayback Machine
  53. ^ a b c d Moore Information Archived 2015-04-28 at the Wayback Machine
  54. ^ "November 8, 2016, General Election Abstract of Votes". Oregon Secretary of State. Retrieved January 3, 2017.
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Nominees

Primary candidates

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