2012 United States presidential election in Arizona
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| Elections in Arizona |
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The 2012 United States presidential election in Arizona took place on November 6, 2012, as part of the 2012 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. State voters chose 11 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting incumbent Democratic President Barack Obama and his running mate, Vice President Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and his running mate, Congressman Paul Ryan. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Romney would win, or otherwise considered as a safe red state. Arizona was won by Romney with a 9.06% margin. Obama remains the only president to win two terms in office without carrying Arizona either time since the state's founding in 1912. Arizona is also one of only two states that voted against Obama in both 2008 and 2012 that his vice president Joe Biden would go on to win in 2020, the other being Georgia.
Until 2020, Arizona had been won by the Republican nominee for president in every election since 1952, except when Bill Clinton narrowly carried the state over Bob Dole in 1996. This is also the most recent time that Arizona has backed the losing candidate in a presidential election and the last time a Democrat won the presidency without winning Arizona.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]Incumbent President Barack Obama won all the delegates.
Republican primary
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Romney 30–40% 40–50% 50–60% 60–70%
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 2012 U.S. presidential election | |
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| Democratic Party | |
| Republican Party | |
| Minor parties | |
| Related races | |
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The Republican primary was a closed primary that took place on February 28, 2012.[1] More than 1,130,000 registered Republican voters participated in the event, the purpose of which was to select delegates from the state to attend the Republican National Convention on behalf of candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. The Republican National Committee removed half of Arizona's delegate allocation because the state committee moved its Republican primary before March 6. Arizona therefore held a ballot to select 29 proportionally-allocated delegates. This election occurred the same day as the Michigan Republican primary. The Arizona primary was set as a winner-take-all contest, another violation of RNC delegate allocation rules, which require proportional allocation for all primaries held before April 1. Endorsements from 2008 primary rival and U.S. Senator John McCain[2] and Governor Jan Brewer[3] helped add to the prospects of a victory for Romney in Arizona.
Polling
[edit]Project White House
[edit]The small alternative newspaper Tucson Weekly, for the second election in a row, has sponsored an event called "Project White House"[4] in which it gets as many ordinary citizens on the ballot as it possibly can. Afterward, a series of "reality show style" competitions occurred, including candidate meet-and-greets, and two televised debates which were sponsored by the Tucson Weekly, a local public-access television show called Illegal Knowledge, and local public television stations.[5]
The two debates took place on February 18 and February 19, 2012, both were commercial-free, one hour long each, and both aired on Access Tucson while they were streamed live on the internet.[6][7][8][9] Both debates were produced in conjunction with Project White House and Jim Nintzel of the Tucson Weekly.
The first debate, held on the 18th at 8 pm MST, produced by Illegal Knowledge[6] and hosted by Dave Maass of San Diego CityBeat,[10] had nine participants, composed of eight lesser known Republican candidates (Donald Benjamin, Simon Bollander, Cesar Cisneros, Kip Dean, Sarah Gonzales, Al "Dick" Perry, Charles Skelley and Jim Terr) and one Green Party candidate (Michael Oatman).[7] A press release regarding this first debate was distributed which invited all candidates listed on either Republican or Green Party ballots in Arizona to the first debate,[11] although none of the major Republican or Green Party candidates appeared.
The second debate, held on the 19th at 7pm MST, produced by Access Tucson[8] and hosted by both Dave Maass of San Diego CityBeat and Amanda Hurley of The University of Arizona School of Journalism,[10] was restricted only to Republican candidates and featured seven of the eight lesser known Republican candidates from the previous night (less Cesar Cisneros).[9]
There was a third Arizona debate which took place in Mesa, AZ on February 22, 2012, but was not associated with Project White House and had only invited the four major Republican candidates to participate.[12][13]
Two lesser known candidates appearing in the first debates, Sarah Gonzales (who placed sixth) and Michael Oatman (who placed tied for third), placed ahead of their better known Republican and Green Party counterparts (Buddy Roemer and Gerard Davis respectively) in the Arizona Presidential Preference Election Results from February 28, 2012.[14]
Campaign
[edit]Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, Texas Congressman Ron Paul, Former Louisiana Governor Buddy Roemer, Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, and Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum were contesting and campaigning in the Arizona primary.
Televised debates in Arizona were held on February 18 and 19, 2012, on Public-access television[15] and February 22, 2012, on CNN. Only the major Republican candidates, except for Roemer,[16] were invited to the third, and none of them attended the first two.
Twenty-three candidates appeared on the presidential primary ballot,[17] 11 of whom are residents of the state.[18]
Results
[edit]
Arizona was allocated 29 delegates because it moved its primary to February 28.[19]
Voter turnout = 45.3%[20]
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Delegates[22] |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mitt Romney | 239,167 | 46.87% | 26 |
| Rick Santorum | 138,031 | 27.05% | 0 |
| Newt Gingrich | 81,748 | 16.02% | 0 |
| Ron Paul | 43,952 | 8.61% | 3 |
| Rick Perry (withdrawn) | 2,023 | 0.40% | 0 |
| Sarah Gonzales | 1,544 | 0.30% | 0 |
| Buddy Roemer (withdrawn) | 692 | 0.14% | 0 |
| Paul Sims | 530 | 0.10% | 0 |
| Cesar Cisneros | 418 | 0.08% | 0 |
| Mark Callahan | 358 | 0.07% | 0 |
| Al "Dick" Perry | 310 | 0.06% | 0 |
| Donald Benjamin | 223 | 0.04% | 0 |
| Michael Levinson | 217 | 0.04% | 0 |
| Kip Dean | 198 | 0.04% | 0 |
| Ronald Zack | 156 | 0.03% | 0 |
| Christopher Hill | 139 | 0.03% | 0 |
| Frank Lynch | 110 | 0.02% | 0 |
| Wayne Charles Arnett | 96 | 0.02% | 0 |
| Raymond Scott Perkins | 90 | 0.02% | 0 |
| Matt Welch | 86 | 0.02% | 0 |
| Jim Terr | 59 | 0.01% | 0 |
| Charles Skelley | 57 | 0.01% | 0 |
| Simon Bollander | 54 | 0.01% | 0 |
| Total: | 510,258 | 100.00% | 29 |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Huffington Post[23] | Tossup | November 6, 2012 |
| CNN[24] | Lean R | November 6, 2012 |
| New York Times[25] | Lean R | November 6, 2012 |
| Washington Post[26] | Safe R | November 6, 2012 |
| RealClearPolitics[27] | Lean R | November 6, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] | Solid R | November 5, 2012 |
| FiveThirtyEight[29] | Solid R | November 6, 2012 |
Ballot access
[edit]- Mitt Romney/Paul Ryan, Republican
- Barack Obama/Joseph Biden, Democratic
- Gary Johnson/James P. Gray, Libertarian
- Jill Stein/Cheri Honkala, Green
Write-in candidate access:
- Virgil Goode/Jim Clymer, Constitution
- Rocky Anderson/Luis J. Rodriguez, Justice
Results
[edit]| 2012 United States presidential election in Arizona[30] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Republican | Mitt Romney | Paul Ryan | 1,233,654 | 53.48% | 11 | |
| Democratic | Barack Obama (incumbent) | Joe Biden (incumbent) | 1,025,232 | 44.45% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson | Jim Gray | 32,100 | 1.39% | 0 | |
| Green | Jill Stein | Cheri Honkala | 7,816 | 0.34% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Virgil Goode | Jim Clymer | 289 | 0.01% | 0 | |
| Justice | Rocky Anderson | Luis J. Rodriguez | 119 | 0.01% | 0 | |
| Other Write-In | Other Write-In | 7,349 | 0.32% | 0 | ||
| Totals | 2,306,559 | 100.00% | 11 | |||
By county
[edit]| County | Mitt Romney Republican |
Barack Obama Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Apache | 8,250 | 31.83% | 17,147 | 66.16% | 520 | 2.01% | -8,897 | -34.33% | 25,917 |
| Cochise | 29,497 | 59.95% | 18,546 | 37.69% | 1,158 | 2.35% | 10,951 | 22.26% | 49,201 |
| Coconino | 21,220 | 40.84% | 29,257 | 56.30% | 1,485 | 2.86% | -8,037 | -15.46% | 51,962 |
| Gila | 13,455 | 62.31% | 7,697 | 35.64% | 443 | 2.05% | 5,758 | 26.67% | 21,595 |
| Graham | 8,076 | 67.84% | 3,609 | 30.31% | 220 | 1.85% | 4,467 | 37.53% | 11,905 |
| Greenlee | 1,592 | 53.32% | 1,310 | 43.87% | 84 | 2.81% | 282 | 9.45% | 2,986 |
| La Paz | 3,714 | 64.76% | 1,880 | 32.78% | 141 | 2.46% | 1,834 | 31.98% | 5,735 |
| Maricopa | 749,885 | 54.30% | 602,288 | 43.61% | 28,786 | 2.08% | 147,597 | 10.69% | 1,380,959 |
| Mohave | 49,168 | 69.91% | 19,533 | 27.77% | 1,627 | 2.31% | 29,635 | 42.14% | 70,328 |
| Navajo | 19,884 | 53.07% | 16,945 | 45.23% | 636 | 1.70% | 2,939 | 7.84% | 37,465 |
| Pima | 174,779 | 45.61% | 201,251 | 52.52% | 7,143 | 1.86% | -26,472 | -6.91% | 383,173 |
| Pinal | 62,079 | 57.12% | 44,306 | 40.77% | 2,297 | 2.11% | 17,773 | 16.35% | 108,682 |
| Santa Cruz | 4,235 | 30.44% | 9,486 | 68.19% | 190 | 1.37% | -5,251 | -37.75% | 13,911 |
| Yavapai | 64,468 | 64.04% | 33,918 | 33.69% | 2,281 | 2.27% | 30,550 | 30.35% | 100,667 |
| Yuma | 23,352 | 55.50% | 18,059 | 42.92% | 662 | 1.57% | 5,293 | 12.58% | 42,073 |
| Totals | 1,233,654 | 53.48% | 1,025,232 | 44.45% | 47,673 | 2.07% | 208,422 | 9.03% | 2,306,559 |
By congressional district
[edit]Romney won 6 of 9 districts, including two that elected Democrats.[31]
| District | Obama | Romney | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 47.89% | 50.42% | Ann Kirkpatrick |
| 2nd | 48.37% | 49.94% | Ron Barber |
| 3rd | 61.44% | 36.94% | Raúl Grijalva |
| 4th | 31.02% | 67.19% | Paul Gosar |
| 5th | 34.56% | 63.76% | Matt Salmon |
| 6th | 38.82% | 59.52% | David Schweikert |
| 7th | 71.7% | 26.51% | Ed Pastor |
| 8th | 36.87% | 61.68% | Trent Franks |
| 9th | 51.12% | 46.59% | Kyrsten Sinema |
See also
[edit]- 2012 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
- 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries
- Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries
- Arizona Republican Party
References
[edit]- ^ Burns, Alexander (September 12, 2011). "Arizona flouts rules, keeps February primary". The Politico. Retrieved January 12, 2012.
- ^ "John McCain Endorses Romney | Fox News". Fox News. January 4, 2012. Retrieved April 26, 2016.
- ^ "Jan Brewer Endorses Romney". The Huffington Post. February 26, 2012. Retrieved April 26, 2016.
- ^ "Project White House 2012 Feature, Tucson Weekly". Tucson Weekly. Retrieved March 5, 2012.
- ^ "Project White House 2012, Tucson Weekly". Tucson Weekly. Retrieved March 5, 2012.
- ^ a b "Illegal Knowledge TV Episode 401, Access Tucson". Access Tucson. Retrieved March 5, 2012.[permanent dead link]
- ^ a b "IKTV401 Let's Get On TV 2012 Illegal Knowledge's Arizona Presidential Preference Election Debate Special". Retrieved March 5, 2012.
- ^ a b "Project White House Debate 2012, Access Tucson". Access Tucson. Retrieved March 5, 2012.[permanent dead link]
- ^ a b "Project White House Debate 2012". Retrieved March 5, 2012.
- ^ a b "Dave Maass, Project White House Debates!". Dave Maass. Archived from the original on January 28, 2013. Retrieved March 5, 2012.
- ^ "Announcing First Arizona Presidential Preference Election Debate in 2012 (press release)". Michael Oatman, Host / Producer Illegal Knowledge TV. February 15, 2012. Retrieved March 5, 2012.
- ^ "CNN Observations: CNN Arizona GOP Presidential Debate Airs Tonight".
- ^ "GOP Candidates to Appear for Final Debate before Super Tuesday - Ratings | TVbytheNumbers". Archived from the original on February 25, 2012. Retrieved March 5, 2012.
- ^ "February 28, 2012 Election Results". Ken Bennett, Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved March 5, 2012.
- ^ "Project White House 2012".
- ^ Mendte, Larry (February 16, 2012). "Why Are the Republicans Hiding Buddy Roemer? | The Philly Post". Philadelphia Magazine. Retrieved June 4, 2024.
- ^ Bennett, Ken. "2012 Presidential Preference Election - Ballot Order". Arizona Secretary of State. Archived from the original on March 14, 2012. Retrieved January 12, 2012.
- ^ https://news.yahoo.com/23-official-candidates-arizona-primary-ballot-other-significant-001800979.html [dead link]
- ^ "Iowa Caucuses & New Hampshire Primary Guide" (PDF). NBC News. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 26, 2012. Retrieved December 29, 2011.
- ^ "State of Arizona Registration Report" (PDF). Arizona Secretary of State. February 29, 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 13, 2012. Retrieved February 29, 2012.
- ^ "AZ - Election Results". Archived from the original on April 5, 2015. Retrieved April 5, 2015.
- ^ Arizona Daily Star: 3 of 29 AZ delegates break ranks, vote for Ron Paul. August 29, 2012.
- ^ "Huffington Post Election Dashboard". HuffPost. Archived from the original on August 13, 2013.
- ^ "America's Choice 2012 Election Center: CNN Electoral Map". CNN. Archived from the original on January 19, 2013.
- ^ "Election 2012 - The Electoral Map: Building a Path to Victory". The New York Times. Archived from the original on July 8, 2012.
- ^ "2012 Presidential Election Results". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on July 26, 2012.
- ^ "RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Battle for White House". Archived from the original on June 8, 2011.
- ^ "PROJECTION: OBAMA WILL LIKELY WIN SECOND TERM".
- ^ "Nate Silver's political calculations predict 2012 election outcome".
- ^ "Arizona Secretary of State". Arizona Secretary of State.
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
External links
[edit]- "Arizona Elections: Dates & Deadlines". MyTimeToVote.com.
- The Green Papers: for Arizona
- The Green Papers: Major state elections in chronological order.
