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TPM Model: US Senate Elections, 1914-present

The table found below applies the model of tipping-point states to national US Senate elections from the first entirely popular elections in 1914. For a detailed explanation of this model, see the version for presidential elections above.

NOTES:

Early in the 20th century, the positions of majority and minority leader did not yet exist, with party leaders simply serving as their parties' respective conference chairs. To reflect this, leaders who were only conference chairs have been marked with italics.
As with the presidential version, only major parties' vote shares are shown, defined here as any party that won at least one seat in the election (even if said party had not fielded a sufficient number of candidates to theoretically win a Senate majority).
Because of the nature of Senate elections, which have been far less likely than presidential elections to see coordinated national efforts by third parties to win, vote share adjustments have been calculated differently for this table. Rather than simply substituting in the national vote shares of parties who were not on the ballot in the tipping-point state and adjusting the shares of the major parties accordingly, vote shares are expressed solely in terms of major parties (i.e. the votes of any minor parties on the ballot in the tipping-point state have been adjusted out).

Election	Incumbent^[a]	Party	First elected	Result	Candidates^[b]	Tipping-point state^[c] & notes (if any)
Pre-Fourth Party System
1788- 1894	Senators elected indirectly by state legislatures
Fourth Party System
1896- 1912	Senators elected indirectly by state legislatures^[d]
1914	John W. Kern	Democratic	1912–13	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y John W. Kern (Democratic) 52.26% ▌Jacob H. Gallinger (Republican) 43.11% ▌Miles Poindexter (Progressive) 4.63%	Missouri
1916	John W. Kern	Democratic	1912–13	Incumbent lost re-election to seat. New majority leader elected. Democratic hold.	▌Y Thomas S. Martin (Democratic) 54.59% ▌Jacob H. Gallinger (Republican) 45.41%	Nevada
1918	Thomas S. Martin	Democratic	1916	Incumbent lost re-election. New majority leader elected. Republican gain.	▌Y Henry Cabot Lodge (Republican) 50.76% ▌Thomas S. Martin (Democratic) 49.24%	New Hampshire (special)
1920	Henry Cabot Lodge	Republican	1918	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Henry Cabot Lodge (Republican) 58.11% ▌Oscar Underwood (Democratic) 41.89%	Colorado
1922	Henry Cabot Lodge	Republican	1918	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Henry Cabot Lodge (Republican) 58.82% ▌Oscar Underwood (Democratic) 31.87% ▌Henrik Shipstead (Farmer-Labor) 9.33%	Pennsylvania (regular) The vote share for the Progressive candidate has been substituted in for the Farmer-Labor Party.
1924	Henry Cabot Lodge	Republican	1918	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Henry Cabot Lodge (Republican) 53.59% ▌Joseph T. Robinson (Democratic) 43.52% ▌Henrik Shipstead (Farmer-Labor) 2.89%	Wyoming See Pennsylvania (regular)
1926	Charles Curtis	Republican	1924^[e]	Incumbent elected to full term.	▌Y Charles Curtis (Republican) 52.07% ▌Joseph T. Robinson (Democratic) 47.55% ▌Henrik Shipstead (Farmer-Labor) 0.38%	Oregon Farmer-Labor total as sum of Farmer-Labor and Progressive votes across the country.
1928	Charles Curtis	Republican	1924^[e]	Incumbent retired. New majority leader elected. Republican hold.	▌Y James E. Watson (Republican) 56.37% ▌Joseph T. Robinson (Democratic) 41.35% ▌Henrik Shipstead (Farmer-Labor) 2.28%	New Mexico (regular) See Oregon
1930	James E. Watson	Republican	1928	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y James E. Watson (Republican) 50.03% ▌Joseph T. Robinson (Democratic) 48.90% ▌Henrik Shipstead (Farmer-Labor) 1.07%	Rhode Island Rhode Island is the tipping point if it is assumed that the Farmer-Laborite Shipstead would have caucused with Democrats.
Fifth Party System & Dealignment
1932	James E. Watson	Republican	1928	Incumbent lost re-election to seat. New majority leader elected. Democratic gain.	▌Y Joseph T. Robinson (Democratic) 59.11% ▌Charles L. McNary (Republican) 40.88% ▌Henrik Shipstead (Farmer-Labor) 0.01%	New York
1934	Joseph T. Robinson	Democratic	1932	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Joseph T. Robinson (Democratic) 75.47% ▌Charles L. McNary (Republican) 20.78% ▌Henrik Shipstead (Farmer-Labor) 2.01% ▌Robert M. La Follette Jr. (Progressive) 1.74%	Virginia
1936	Joseph T. Robinson	Democratic	1932	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Joseph T. Robinson (Democratic) Unopposed	None The Democratic majority in the Senate was so decisive that it was impossible for Republicans to retake the Senate in these elections.
1938	Alben W. Barkley	Democratic	1937^[f]	Incumbent elected to full term.	▌Y Alben W. Barkley (Democratic) Unopposed	None See above.
1940	Alben W. Barkley	Democratic	1937^[f]	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Alben W. Barkley (Democratic) Unopposed	None See above.
1942	Alben W. Barkley	Democratic	1937^[f]	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Alben W. Barkley (Democratic) Unopposed	None See above.
1944	Alben W. Barkley	Democratic	1937^[f]	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Alben W. Barkley (Democratic) 59.78% ▌Wallace H. White (Republican) 40.01% ▌Robert M. La Follette Jr. (Progressive) 0.21%	Utah
1946	Alben W. Barkley	Democratic	1937^[f]	Incumbent lost re-election. New majority leader elected. Republican gain.	▌Y Wallace H. White (Republican) 52.82% ▌Alben W. Barkley (Democratic) 47.18%	Missouri
1948	Wallace H. White	Republican	1946	Incumbent retired from seat. New majority leader elected. Democratic gain.	▌Y Scott W. Lucas (Democratic) 57.11% ▌Kenneth S. Wherry (Republican) 42.89%	Wyoming
1950	Scott W. Lucas	Democratic	1948	Incumbent lost re-election to seat. New majority leader elected. Democratic hold.	▌Y Ernest McFarland (Democratic) 52.66% ▌Kenneth S. Wherry (Republican) 47.34%	New York
1952	Ernest McFarland	Democratic	1950	Incumbent lost re-election to seat. New majority leader elected. Republican gain.	▌Y Robert A. Taft^[g] (Republican) 51.31% ▌Lyndon B. Johnson (Democratic) 48.69%	Arizona
1954	William Knowland	Republican	1953^[h]	Incumbent lost election to full term. New majority leader elected. Democratic gain.	▌Y Lyndon B. Johnson (Democratic) 50.13% ▌William Knowland (Republican) 49.70% ▌Wayne Morse (Independent) 0.17%	Oregon
1956	Lyndon B. Johnson	Democratic	1954	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Lyndon B. Johnson (Democratic) 50.22% ▌William Knowland (Republican) 49.78%	Colorado
1958	Lyndon B. Johnson	Democratic	1954	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Lyndon B. Johnson (Democratic) 60.76% ▌William Knowland (Republican) 39.24%	Maine
1960	Lyndon B. Johnson	Democratic	1954	Incumbent retired. New majority leader elected. Democratic hold.	▌Y Mike Mansfield (Democratic) 68.90% ▌Everett Dirksen (Republican) 31.10%	Rhode Island
1962	Mike Mansfield	Democratic	1960	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Mike Mansfield (Democratic) 65.28% ▌Everett Dirksen (Republican) 34.72%	Nevada
1964	Mike Mansfield	Democratic	1960	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Mike Mansfield (Democratic) 64.55% ▌Everett Dirksen (Republican) 35.45%	Michigan
1966	Mike Mansfield	Democratic	1960	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Mike Mansfield (Democratic) Unopposed	None See 1936-1942.
1968	Mike Mansfield	Democratic	1960	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Mike Mansfield (Democratic) 59.15% ▌Everett Dirksen (Republican) 40.85%	Arkansas
1970	Mike Mansfield	Democratic	1960	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Mike Mansfield (Democratic) 50.87% ▌Hugh Scott (Republican) 43.57% ▌James L. Buckley (Conservative) 4.50% ▌Harry F. Byrd Jr. (Independent) 1.06%	Florida
1972	Mike Mansfield	Democratic	1960	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Mike Mansfield (Democratic) 53.52% ▌Hugh Scott (Republican) 45.63% ▌Harry F. Byrd Jr. (Independent) 0.84% ▌James L. Buckley (Conservative) 0.01%	Georgia (regular)
1974	Mike Mansfield	Democratic	1960	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Mike Mansfield (Democratic) 60.97% ▌Hugh Scott (Republican) 36.52% ▌James L. Buckley (Conservative) 2.02% ▌Harry F. Byrd Jr. (Independent) 0.49%	Illinois
1976	Mike Mansfield	Democratic	1960	Incumbent retired from seat. New majority leader elected. Democratic hold.	▌Y Robert Byrd (Democratic) 65.39% ▌Howard Baker (Republican) 32.63% ▌Harry F. Byrd Jr. (Independent) 1.98%	Nevada
1978	Robert Byrd	Democratic	1976	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Robert Byrd (Democratic) 65.49% ▌Howard Baker (Republican) 32.86% ▌Harry F. Byrd Jr. (Independent) 1.65%	Oklahoma
Sixth Party System
1980	Robert Byrd	Democratic	1976	Incumbent lost re-election. New majority leader elected. Republican gain.	▌Y Howard Baker (Republican) 50.66% ▌Robert Byrd (Democratic) 49.15% ▌Harry F. Byrd Jr. (Independent) 0.19%	New York
1982	Howard Baker	Republican	1980	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Howard Baker (Republican) 51.56% ▌Robert Byrd (Democratic) 48.44%	New York
1984	Howard Baker	Republican	1980	Incumbent retired from seat. New majority leader elected. Republican hold.	▌Y Bob Dole (Republican) 58.45% ▌Robert Byrd (Democratic) 41.55%	Minnesota
1986	Bob Dole	Republican	1984	Incumbent lost re-election. New majority leader elected. Democratic gain.	▌Y Robert Byrd (Democratic) 50.92% ▌Bob Dole (Republican) 49.08%	Georgia
1988	Robert Byrd	Democratic	1976 1980 (defeated) 1986	Incumbent retired. New majority leader elected. Republican hold.	▌Y George J. Mitchell (Democratic) 56.97% ▌Bob Dole (Republican) 43.03%	Ohio
1990	George J. Mitchell	Democratic	1988	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y George J. Mitchell (Democratic) 58.23% ▌Bob Dole (Republican) 41.77%	Michigan
1992	George J. Mitchell	Democratic	1988	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y George J. Mitchell (Democratic) 55.30% ▌Bob Dole (Republican) 44.70%	Illinois
1994	George J. Mitchell	Democratic	1988	Incumbent retired from seat. New majority leader elected. Republican gain.	▌Y Bob Dole (Republican) 52.66% ▌Tom Daschle (Democratic) 47.34%	Minnesota
1996	Trent Lott	Republican	1996^[i]	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Trent Lott (Republican) 52.70% ▌Tom Daschle (Democratic) 47.30%	Arkansas
1998	Trent Lott	Republican	1996^[i]	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Trent Lott (Republican) 56.46% ▌Tom Daschle (Democratic) 43.54%	Ohio
2000	Trent Lott	Republican	1996^[i]	Incumbent lost re-election, but then re-elected.	January 3, 2001: ▌Y Tom Daschle (Democratic) 50.05% ▌Trent Lott (Republican) 49.95% January 20, 2001: ▌Y Trent Lott (Republican) 51.69% ▌Tom Daschle (Democratic) 48.31%	Washington (January 3); Montana (January 20) The 2000 elections resulted in a tie in the Senate. Due to presidential inaugurations occurring a few weeks after the start of the new Congress, this meant that Democrats briefly took control of the Senate through outgoing Vice President Gore. Once President Bush and Vice President Cheney were sworn in, Senate control returned to Republicans. Given all this, the tipping points for each party have been shown for the respective dates of party control change in the Senate.
2002	Tom Daschle	Democratic	2000 2001 (defeated) 2001^[j]	Incumbent lost election to full term. New majority leader elected. Republican gain.	▌Y Bill Frist (Republican) 50.73% ▌Tom Daschle (Democratic) 48.48% ▌Jim Jeffords (Independent) 0.79%	Minnesota
2004	Bill Frist	Republican	2002	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Bill Frist (Republican) 54.78% ▌Harry Reid (Democratic) 45.01% ▌Jim Jeffords (Independent) 0.21%	South Carolina
2006	Bill Frist	Republican	2002	Incumbent retired from seat. New majority leader elected. Democratic gain.	▌Y Harry Reid (Democratic) 49.41% ▌Mitch McConnell (Republican) 49.03% ▌Independent 1.55%	Virginia The vote percentage for Independent is a combination of the votes for independent candidates and the votes received by Joe Lieberman under his Connecticut for Lieberman party, as he would ultimately serve his last term as an independent.
2008	Harry Reid	Democratic	2006	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Harry Reid (Democratic) 62.32% ▌Mitch McConnell (Republican) 37.41% ▌Independent 0.27%	South Dakota
2010	Harry Reid	Democratic	2006	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Harry Reid (Democratic) 55.18% ▌Mitch McConnell (Republican) 44.60% ▌Independent 0.22%	California
2012	Harry Reid	Democratic	2006	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Harry Reid (Democratic) 52.41% ▌Mitch McConnell (Republican) 46.56% ▌Independent 1.03%	Virginia
2014	Harry Reid	Democratic	2006	Incumbent lost re-election. New majority leader elected. Republican gain.	▌Y Mitch McConnell (Republican) 53.08% ▌Harry Reid (Democratic) 45.37% ▌Independent 1.55%	Georgia
Seventh Party System (unofficial)
2016	Mitch McConnell	Republican	2014	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Mitch McConnell (Republican) 51.40% ▌Chuck Schumer (Democratic) 47.95% ▌Independent 0.65%	Wisconsin
2018	Mitch McConnell	Republican	2014	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Mitch McConnell (Republican) 52.60% ▌Chuck Schumer (Democratic) 46.50% ▌Independent 0.90%	Indiana
2020	Mitch McConnell	Republican	2014	Incumbent re-elected, but then lost re-election. New majority leader elected. Democratic gain.	January 3, 2021: ▌Y Mitch McConnell (Republican) 51.00% ▌Chuck Schumer (Democratic) 42.40% ▌Independent 6.60% January 20, 2021: ▌Y Chuck Schumer (Democratic) 50.45% ▌Mitch McConnell (Republican) 49.23% ▌Independent 0.32%	Maine (January 3); Georgia (regular) (January 20) The runoff elections in Georgia did not occur until January 5, after the start of the new Congress; as such, the percentages for January 3 come from what would have been the tipping-point state excluding either Georgia races.
2022	Chuck Schumer	Democratic	2021	Incumbent re-elected.	▌Y Chuck Schumer (Democratic) 51.02% ▌Mitch McConnell (Republican) 48.24% ▌Independent 0.74%	Georgia
2024	Chuck Schumer	Democratic	2021	Incumbent lost re-election. New majority leader elected. Republican gain.	▌Y John Thune (Republican) 53.03% ▌Chuck Schumer (Democratic) 45.83% ▌Independent 1.14%	Montana
2026	John Thune	Republican	2024	Incumbent running.	▌John Thune (Republican) ▌Chuck Schumer (Democratic) ▌Independent	TBD

Closest elections

Elections where the margin of victory was under 1%:

2000 (WA), 0.10%
2006 (VA), 0.38%
1954 (OR), 0.43%
1956 (CO), 0.44%

Elections where the margin of victory was between 1% and 5%:

1930 (RI), 1.13%
2021 (GA), 1.22%
1980 (NY), 1.51%
1918 (NH), 1.52%
1986 (GA), 1.84%
2002 (MN), 2.25%
1952 (AZ), 2.62%
2022 (GA), 2.78%
1982 (NY), 3.12%
2001 (MT), 3.38%
2016 (WI), 3.45%
1926 (OR), 4.52%

Notes

^ Majority party leader; italics for conference chairmen
^ Only includes parties with seats following the election.
^ Listed as "special" for special elections.
^ From 1906, a growing handful of Western states held popular elections for senators, with the still officially required election by state legislatures becoming a mere formality. However, the vast majority of states still solely used their legislatures, meaning that tipping points are still impossible to determine for the 1906-07, 1908–09, 1910–11, and 1912-13 elections.
^ ^a ^b Curtis became the new Republican Senate leader after his predecessor (Henry Cabot Lodge) died.
^ ^a ^b ^c ^d ^e Barkley became the new Democratic Senate leader after his predecessor (Joseph T. Robinson) died.
^ Styles Bridges was the Republican leader at the time of the 1952 elections; Taft would be elected leader at the start of the new Congress.
^ Knowland became the Republican Senate leader after his predecessor (Robert A. Taft) died.
^ ^a ^b ^c Lott became the Republican Senate leader after his predecessor (Bob Dole) resigned from his seat.
^ Daschle returned as majority leader after Republican Jim Jeffords of Vermont left the party and caucused with Democrats.

[1] Majority party leader; italics for conference chairmen

[2] Only includes parties with seats following the election.

[3] Listed as "special" for special elections.

[4] From 1906, a growing handful of Western states held popular elections for senators, with the still officially required election by state legislatures becoming a mere formality. However, the vast majority of states still solely used their legislatures, meaning that tipping points are still impossible to determine for the 1906-07, 1908–09, 1910–11, and 1912-13 elections.

[Curtis-5] Curtis became the new Republican Senate leader after his predecessor (Henry Cabot Lodge) died.

[Barkley-6] Barkley became the new Democratic Senate leader after his predecessor (Joseph T. Robinson) died.

[7] Styles Bridges was the Republican leader at the time of the 1952 elections; Taft would be elected leader at the start of the new Congress.

[8] Knowland became the Republican Senate leader after his predecessor (Robert A. Taft) died.

[Lott-9] Lott became the Republican Senate leader after his predecessor (Bob Dole) resigned from his seat.

[10] Daschle returned as majority leader after Republican Jim Jeffords of Vermont left the party and caucused with Democrats.

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