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The internationally supervised independence of Kosovo from Serbia against the wishes of the latter is expected to create a precedent for currently unrecognized states. Such a precedent would prioritise the self-determination of prospective states at the expense of the territorial integrity of the host state, thus stimulating separatism. The consequences of Kosovo independence are expected to involve territorial disputes in several unrecognized states in Eastern Europe.

Background

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International law

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A map of Serbia without Kosovo

United Nations Security Council Resolution 1244, passed in 1999, legally affirmed Serbia's sovereignty over Kosovo but placed Kosovo under the authority of the United Nations Interim Administration Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK), with security provided by the NATO-led Kosovo Force (KFOR).

Resolution of Kosovo's status has centered on two aspects of international law, that of territorial integrity and self-determination. According to a NATO report on the question of Kosovo's status (see External Links), the Declaration on Friendly Relations states a region may have the right of secession in the case of foreign occupation or if the region is a colony of another nation. The NATO report claims, while mentioning disagreement on the interpretation, that a third condition exists when "a people whose right to internal self-determination has been thoroughly violated by a Government that does not represent the people" and suggests Kosovo qualifies under this condition. In the report a Canadian Supreme Court ruling on the secession of Quebec is cited which states:


The report goes on to discuss the exercise of what is seen as an emerging right to secession in international law represented by the response of the international community in the cases of the secessionist movements in Eritrea, East Timor, the USSR, and Yugoslavia. In concluding the report argues in favor of self-determination for Kosovo and rejects it in any case where regions are open to democratic mechanisms.

Breakup of Yugoslavia

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Main articles: Breakup of Yugoslavia and Kosovo War

Collapse of the Soviet Union

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Main articles: History of the Soviet Union (1985–1991) and Frozen conflict

Potential consequences for the Balkans

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Kosovo

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Kosovo's Prime Minister Hashim Thaci announced a date for independence "will be made public very soon" claiming it would be "a good surprise, made fast in the coming days" though he did not specify when the announcement would be made.[1] Kosovo's parliament is expected to adopt a statement of intent to proclaim independence on February 17.[2] Serbia has responded to plans for independence by passing a resolution threatening to cut ties with any nations that recognize Kosovo and possibly halt membership talks with the European Union and rule out membership in NATO. Serbia's president Boris Tadic also threatened to send the Serbian army to protect Kosovo Serbs if they came under attack.[3] Chief of General Staff of the Serbian Army said independence and a declaration of a state of emergency would not mean enhancing military engagement on the part of the Serbian Army or an operation. He also said he received no orders to mobilize the army in the event of independence.[2] Serbia plans to bring any nation recognizing independence into the International Court. [4]

In the event of a declaration of independence Deputy Prime Minister Božidar Đelić said on November 23rd Serbia "should be prepared for the worst case scenario," however Defense Ministry plans for reacting to an independence declaration were not revealed.[5] Dušan Proroković, Serbia's state secretary with the Kosovo Ministry, has said an action plan for Kosovo has been made that involves establishing Serbian institutions to administrate Kosovo.[6] An office set up in northern part of Kosovska Mitrovica will serve as part of a Serbian parallel government after Kosovo's independence.[7]

The Albanian National Army, according to a frontman for the group, is mobilizing its troops to send into the Serb majority regions in Northern Mitrovica and Northern Kosovo to protect Albanians once Kosovo declares its independence, though he would not reveal the size of the force.[8] Reports say Northern Kosovo is already effectively part of Serbia with Serbian police sizing up everyone who cross the bridge over Ibar river into the Serb area of Mitrovica and posters of Serbian generals and politicians on several buildings.[7] Some policemen are reported by Reuters to actually be undercover Serbian security forces and one told a reporter: "If they [Albanians] want to take the north by force, we'll defend ourselves. Serbs are ready."[9]

Serbia's Foreign Minister Vuk Jeremic warned "A Pandora's Box could open up there and cause partition of Kosovo, something Serbia does not want" referring to threats by some Kosovo Serbs to secede from Kosovo after a declaration of independence.[10] In response to partition the Albanian National Army said they would "do everything to unify and protect our territories."[8] To prevent a secession from Kosovo Germany has 500 troops and the U.S. has 200 troops stationed along the border.[7] In Serbia, the Serbian Army has issued recruitment orders for more than 700 soldiers to fill posts in the Vranje, Leskovac and Bujanovac garrisons, all located in the south of the country.[5]

If Kosovo is partitioned Prime Minister Agim Ceku has suggested Kosovo and Albanians in four other countries may want to unite with Albania.[11] Nait Hasani, a member of the Kosovo government has also said Kosovo may try to unite with Albania. Hasani was quoted as saying to a Polish paper, "First there should be supervised independence as proposed by Ahtisaari. But it is known that Kosovo and Albania citizens are one nation who want to live in one state."[12]

Republika Srpska

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According to a poll taken of Bosnian Serbs by the Banja Luka-based Partner agency, 77% would support a referendum being called on Republika Srpska's independence from Bosnia and Herzegovina.[13] The Prime Minister of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik, citing popular demand, has suggested that a referendum on the Serb entity's independence could be held if Kosovo declares its independence.[13] However, Dodik has denied accusations that there are already ballots being printed for such a referendum on independence.[14]

Potential consequences for the former Soviet Union

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Russian President Vladimir Putin said, "Our position is extremely clear. Any resolution on Kosovo should be approved by both sides. It is also clear that any resolution on Kosovo will set a precedent in international practice." Analysts take this as meaning Russia would come out for the independence of breakway regions in the Former Soviet Union.[15]

The former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton, former Secretary of State Lawrence Eagleburger and former Assistant Defense Secretary Peter Rodman have warned that Western recognition of Kosovo independence would create "an avoidable confrontation with Russia" and "turn what is now a relatively small problem into a large one."[16]

Abkhazia and South Ossetia

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Main articles: Abkhazia and South Ossetia

Sergei Mironov, the chairmen of Russia's upper house of parliament said in December of 2007, "In case of the unilateral recognition of the independence of Kosovo, Russia will be entitled to change its approach to the so-called unrecognized republics in the post-soviet regions - South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Pridnestrovie." He went on to say "In case of such a recognition of Kosovo, Russia will be able to say that it is free in its approach, including towards the so-called unrecognized republics of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Pridnestrovie [Transnistria]."[17] Russia's lower house, the Duma, said they would consider recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in January 2008.[18] Georgia, which claims South Ossetia and Abkhazia as its territory based off UN Resolutions, has warned that such recognition would amount to a declaration of war (see also United Nations resolutions on Abkhazia).[19]

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili stated on December 4th, 2007 he believes South Ossetia's status would be resolved in "if not weeks, then at the very most, months" should the January 5th elections be held normally. [20] South Ossetia's president Eduard Kokoity has said he believes in 2008 South Ossetia will be unified with North Ossetia in Russia.[21] On February 1 2008 President Saakashvili described the Kosovo issue as a major challenge for Georgian diplomacy.[22]

Nagorno-Karabakh

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Main article: Nagorno-Karabakh

Armenia's Deputy Parliament Speaker Vahan Hovhannisyan has said Kosovo's independence will ultimately impact Nagorno-Karabakh. Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan declared at the UN General Assembly session in October of 2007 that the Armenian side “does not understand and cannot accept the reverse logic that Kosovo was given independence and that another nation cannot obtain self-determination."[23]

According to Armenian prime-minister and presidential hopeful Serzh Sargsyan, Kosovo is not a precedent for Karabakh. He underlined that Nagorno-Karabakh has been independent for the past 17 years. [24].

Transnistria

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Main article: Transnistria

Potential consequences for Western Europe

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Galicia, Catalonia, Basque Country

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The Spanish government oppose recognizing Kosovo's move for fear that it would become a dangerous precedent for other separatist movements in its autonomous territories of Galicia, Catalonia, and the Basque Country.[25]

Brittany, Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales

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Kosovo's independence may cause an independence-seeking wave in these territories. Nevertheless, both the UK and France recognize the validity of Kosovo's declaration. Democratic will in the case of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, all of which are currently governed in part by nationalist parties devoted to obtaining the independence of their respective nations, would seem to suggest that the future of the United Kingdom as a unitary state is being challenged.

Potential consequences for the Middle East

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Northern Cyprus

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Ozdil Nami a senior Turkish Cypriot official told the Turkish Daily News, "When diplomatic efforts are exhausted other alternatives are put on the table. We clearly see this in Kosovo where diplomacy proved futile and other formulas are floating around. This will certainly have an impact on Cyprus."[26] Nami suggests the resolution of Kosovo may be applied to Northern Cyprus well. According to Nami, "Everyone sees 2008 as the last window of opportunity for a solution to the Cyprus problem." He claims Cyprus is being warned that "other alternatives could be on the agenda" if there is no resolution.[26]

Iran

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Mikhail Margelov, chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Federation Council, suggested Kosovo's independence could result in the disintegration of Iran. He pointed to Iranian Azerbaijan, Iranian Kurdistan, and Khuzestan as possibly using the precedent.[1] However, Daniel Brett, Chairman of the British Ahwazi Friendship Society (BAFS), said this was unlikely to be a favorable alternative of the international community to Iran's present situation. Instead he considers greater freedom and decentralization in Iran to be the best course.[27]

Palestine

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Member of Palestinian negotiating team Yasser Abed Rabbo said if talks with Israel continue to falter, Palestinians should unilaterally declare independence.[28]

Political leaders who are proponents of the “Kosovo precedent”

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The following political leaders have voiced their belief that the independence of Kosovo will create a precedent for other separatist movements.

See also

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References

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  1. ^ "Kosovo independence date 'has been set'". The Sydney Morning Herald. 2008-01-23. Retrieved 2008-01-23. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  2. ^ a b ""Serbian army chief rules out enhancing military engagement as Kosovo independence looms". Xinhua. 2008-02-14. Retrieved 2008-02-14. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  3. ^ "Serbs to say "No" to EU over Kosovo independence". International Herald Tribune. 2007-12-26. Retrieved 2007-12-28. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  4. ^ ""Serbia would win legal action over Kosovo" independence". B92. 2008-02-11. Retrieved 2008-02-13. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  5. ^ a b "Defense source: Ministry has contingency plans for Kosovo". B92. 2007-11-24. Retrieved 2007-12-28. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  6. ^ "Action plan created in case of Kosovo independence". B92. 2007-12-28. Retrieved 2007-12-28. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  7. ^ a b c "Serbs in Kosovo Uneasy as Independence Looms". Spiegel. 2007-12-27. Retrieved 2007-12-28. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  8. ^ a b "Kosovo Armed Group Issues Warning". Balkan Insight. 2007-12-27. Retrieved 2007-12-28. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  9. ^ "Belgrade refuses to recognise Kosovo's statehood claim". The Guardian. 2008-02-13. Retrieved 2007-02-13. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  10. ^ "Jeremić warns of possible Kosovo partition". B92. 2008-01-13. Retrieved 2008-01-13. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  11. ^ "Premier Ceku: Kosovo partition would create "Greater Albania" issue". Monsters and Critics. 2007-12-26. Retrieved 2007-12-28. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  12. ^ "Kosovo separatists plan Greater Albania referendum". Serbianna. 2007-12-26. Retrieved 2007-12-28. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  13. ^ a b "Bosnian Serbs want secession if Kosovo goes -- poll". Reuters. 2007-11-21. Retrieved 2007-12-28. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  14. ^ "Bosnians stockpile staple food as fear mounts". Financial Times. 2007-12-19. Retrieved 2007-12-28. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  15. ^ "Putin says Kosovo resolution would set precedent". FOCUS Information Agency. 2008-01-17. Retrieved 2008-01-18. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  16. ^ "Warning light on Kosovo". The Washington Times. 2008-01-31. Retrieved 2008-02-12. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  17. ^ "Russia ready to recognize Pridnestrovie if Kosovo gets independence". The Tiraspol Times. 2007-12-27. Retrieved 2007-12-28. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  18. ^ "Russian State "Duma" To Consider Recognition Of Abkhazia And Tskhinvali In January". Prime News. 2007-12-03. Retrieved 2007-12-28. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  19. ^ "Approaching Kosovo Deadline Ratchets Tension in Abkhazia". Georgia Today. 2007-12-21. Retrieved 2007-12-28. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  20. ^ "'S.Ossetia a Matter of, at Most, Months' – Saakashvili". 2007-12-04. Retrieved 2007-12-28. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  21. ^ "South Ossetia, North Ossetia may be rejoined in 2008 - Kokoity". Interfax. 2007-12-25. Retrieved 2007-12-28. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  22. ^ Kosovo a Major Challenge for Georgian Diplomacy – Saakashvili. Civil Georgia. February 1 2008.
  23. ^ "Kosovo seen as precedent by four more new countries". The Tiraspol Times. 2007-12-17. Retrieved 2007-12-28. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  24. ^ (in Russian)"Совбез ООН по требованию России проведет экстренное заседание по Косово. НАТО созывает Совет альянса". NEWSru.com. 2008-02-17. Retrieved 2008-02-18. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  25. ^ "Kosovo's proclaimed independence provokes mixed responses from international community". Xinhua. 2008-02-17. Retrieved 2008-02-17. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  26. ^ a b "Turkish paper: Northern Cyprus eyes Kosovo outcome". B92. 2007-12-27. Retrieved 2007-12-28. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  27. ^ "Kosovo and separatism in Iran". British Ahwazi Friendship Society. 2008-02-16. Retrieved 2008-02-17. {{cite news}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  28. ^ http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3509005,00.html
  29. ^ A KOSOVO “PRECEDENT” CUTS BOTH WAYS, Eurasia Daily Monitor, January 22, 2007
  30. ^ Kosovo precedent for 200 territories—Lavrov, Tanjug/B92, January 23, 2008
  31. ^ Transdnestr deserves independence more than Kosovo - leader, RIA Novosti, December 27, 2007
  32. ^ Georgia breakaway provinces eye Kosovo as precedent, Reuters, June 4, 2007
  33. ^ Bagapsh: International recognition of Abkhazia sure to follow Kosovo precedent, Messenger.ge, August 1, 2007
  34. ^ Kosovo may be next to split from Serbia, International herald Tribune, June 13, 2006
  35. ^ [http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gYnbOs-96E8psUI9a2tBzqfiD87A China 'concerned', Australia backs Kosovo split ], AFP, February 18
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