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39 Solid States

[edit]

16 Rock Solid Republican

[edit]
Rock Solid State Republican Odds EC votes
 Alabama R (100) 9
 Idaho R (100) 4
 Kansas R (100) 6
 Kentucky R (200) 8
 Louisiana R (200) 8
 Mississippi R (50) 6
 Missouri R (66) 10
 Montana R (100) 3
 Nebraska R (100) 5
 North Dakota R (300) 3
 Oklahoma R (100) 7
 South Carolina R (25) 9
 South Dakota R (100) 3
 Tennessee R (100) 11
 West Virginia R (100) 5
 Wyoming R (100) 3

13 Rock Solid Democrat

[edit]
Rock Solid State Democrat Odds EC votes
 California D (300) 55
 Connecticut D (66) 7
 Delaware D (66) 3
 Hawaii D (100) 4
 Maryland D (100) 10
 Massachusetts D (100) 11
 Illinois D (100) 20
 New Jersey D (25) 14
 New York D (100) 29
 Oregon D (25) 7
 Rhode Island D (100) 4
 Vermont D (100) 3
 Washington D (25) 12

4 Fairly Solid Republican States

[edit]
Fairly Solid Republican States Odds Lead 2016 EC votes
Alaska 2020 R (10) 14.7 3
Arkansas 2020 R (12) 26.9 6
Indiana 2020 R (12) 19.0 11
Utah 2020 R (14) [c. 25] 6

6 Fairly Solid Democratic States

[edit]
Fairly Solid Democratic States Odds Lead 2016 EC
Colorado 2020 D (10) D 4.9% 9
Maine 2020 D (7) D 3.0% 4
Minnesota D (6) D 1.5 % 10
Nevada 2020 D (5) D 2.4% 6
New Mexico 2020 D (7) D 8.2% 5
Virginia 2020 D (7) D 5.3% 13

The 11 Swing States

[edit]
Swing State Republican
Odds 		Democrat
Odds 		2016 lead EC votes R D ?
Arizona 2020 6/5 8/13 R 3.5% 11
Florida 8/13 6/5 R 1.2% 29
Georgia 2020 4/7 5/4 R 5.1% 16
Iowa 2020 4/7 5/4 R 9.4% 6
Michigan 2020 11/4 D (5) R 0.2% 16
New Hampshire 2020 D (3) D 0.3% 4
N. Carolina 2020 5/6 5/6 R 3.7% 15
Ohio 2020 4/6 11/10 R 8.1% 18
Penn. 2020 6/4 1/2 R 0.7% 20
Texas 2020 2/5 7/4 R 9.0% 38
Wisconsin 2020 11/8 8/15 R 0.8% 10

Tallies

[edit]
  • 16 Rock Solid Republican: 100 electors
  • 16 Rock Solid Democratic: 181 electors
  • 4 Fairly Solid PI Republican States: 26 electors
  • 6 Fairly Solid PI Democratic States: 47 electors
  • R: 100 + 26 = 126
  • D: 181 + 47 = 228
  • Swing states: 183 electors

Scenarios for swing states

[edit]
  • Trump only holds Texas, Ohio, and Iowa: Result
    R: 100 + 26 + 62 = 188
    D: 181 + 47 + 121 = 349... Biden wins
  • Biden only wins Michigan 16, New Hampshire 4, Wisconsin 10, Pennsylvania 20: Result
    R: 100 + 26 + 133 = 259
    D: 181 + 47 + 50 = 278... Biden wins

Texas notes

[edit]
Main article: 2020 United States presidential election in Texas

Aggregate polls

[edit]
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270 to Win[1] Oct 29, 2020 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 47.5% 48.8% 3.7% Trump +1.3
Real Clear Politics[2] October 20–31, 2020 November 3, 2020 46.5% 47.8% 5.7% Trump +1.3
FiveThirtyEight[3] until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 47.4% 48.6% 4.0% Trump +1.1
Average 47.1% 48.4% 4.5% Trump +1.2

Polls

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[4] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 9,226 (LV) ± 1.5% 51%[c] 47% – – – –
Swayable[5] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 1,151 (LV) ± 3.9% 51% 47% 1% 0% – –
Data For Progress[6] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 926 (LV) ± 3.2% 48% 49% 1% 1% 0%[d] –
AtlasIntel[7] Oct 30–31, 2020 686 (LV) ± 4% 50% 47% – – 3% –
Emerson College[8] Oct 29–31, 2020 763 (LV) ± 3.5% 49%[e] 48% - - 2%[f] –
Morning Consult[9] Oct 22–31, 2020 3,267 (LV) ± 2% 48% 48% – – – –
Public Policy Polling[10] Oct 28–29, 2020 775 (V) – 48% 50% – – – 2%
Gravis Marketing[11] Oct 27–28, 2020 670 (LV) ± 3.8% 50% 45% – – – 5%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ[12] Oct 27–28, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 50%[g] 46% – – 2%[f] 2%
48%[h] 48% – – 2%[f] 2%
52%[i] 44% – – 2%[f] 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[4] Oct 1–28, 2020 15,145 (LV) – 51% 47% – – – –
Swayable[13] Oct 23–26, 2020 552 (LV) ± 5.7% 49% 48% 3% 1% – –
YouGov/UMass Amherst[14] Oct 20–26, 2020 873 (LV) ± 4.2% 48% 47% 2% 1% 0%[j] 1%
Data for Progress (D)[15] Oct 22–25, 2020 1,018 (LV) ± 3.1% 48% 49% 1% 0% – 2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[16] Oct 20–25, 2020 802 (LV) ± 3.8% 47% 43% 3% 0% 2%[k] 5%[l]
Univision/University of Houston/Latino
Decisions/North Star Opinion Research[17] 		Oct 17–25, 2020 758 (RV) ± 3.56% 49% 46% – – 3%[m] 2%
Citizen Data[18] Oct 17–20, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3% 45% 49% 1% 0% 1% 4%
YouGov/University of Houston[19] Oct 13–20, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3.1% 50% 45% 2% 0% – 3%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News[20] Oct 13–20, 2020 925 (LV) ± 3.2% 47%[e] 49% 3% 1% – 1%
Morning Consult[9] Oct 11–20, 2020 3,347 (LV) ± 1.7% 47% 48% – – – –
Quinnipiac University[21] Oct 16–19, 2020 1,145 (LV) ± 2.9% 47% 47% – – 1%[n] 5%
Data for Progress (D)[22] Oct 15–18, 2020 933 (LV) ± 3.2% 46%[e] 47% 2% 1% – 5%
Morning Consult[23][1] Oct 2–11, 2020 3,455 (LV) ± 1.7% 49% 47% – – – 3%
Public Policy Polling/Texas Democrats[24][A] Oct 7–8, 2020 721 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 48% – – – 1%
YouGov/CCES[25] Sep 29 – Oct 7, 2020 2,947 (LV) – 49% 47% – – – –
Morning Consult[26] Sep 28 – Oct 7, 2020 ~2,700 (LV) ± 2% 49% 46% – – – –
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/Crosswind PR[27] Oct 5–6, 2020 1,000 (LV) ± 3% 51% 44% – – – –
Civiqs/Daily Kos[28] Oct 3–6, 2020 895 (LV) ± 3.4% 48% 48% – – 2%[f] 1%
Data For Progress (D)[29] Sep 30 – Oct 5, 2020 1,949 (LV) ± 2.2% 45% 47% 2% 1% – 5%
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune[30] Sep 25 – Oct 4, 2020 908 (LV) ± 3.25% 50% 45% 2% 2% 1%[n] –
EMC Research/Blue Texas PAC[31][B] Sep 27 – Oct 2, 2020 848 (LV) – 49% 49% – – – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[4] Sep 1–30, 2020 13,395 (LV) – 52% 46% – – – 2%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[32][C] Sep 24–27, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 47% – – – –
Morning Consult[26] Sep 18–27, 2020 ~2,700 (LV) ± 2% 48% 47% – – – –
Public Policy Polling/Texas Democrats[33][2] Archived October 8, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[D] Sep 25–26, 2020 612 (LV) ± 3.6% 48% 48% – – – 4%
YouGov/UMass Lowell[34] Sep 18–25, 2020 882 (LV) ± 4.3% 49%[o] 46% 2% 1% 1%[p] 1%
50%[q] 46% – – 2%[r] 2%
Data For Progress[35][E] Sep 18–22, 2020 726 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 45% – – – 9%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[36] Sep 16–22, 2020 653 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 43% 1% 1% 0%[s] 9%[l]
Quinnipiac University[37] Sep 17–21, 2020 1,078 (LV) ± 3% 50% 45% – – No voters 4%
YouGov/CBS[38] Sep 15–18, 2020 1,129 (LV) ± 3.5% 48% 46% – – 2%[t] 4%
Morning Consult[26] Sep 8–17, 2020 ~2,700 (LV) ± 2% 47% 47% – – – –
Morning Consult[39] Aug 29 – Sep 7, 2020 2,829 (LV) ± 2% 46%[u] 46% – – – –
Public Policy Polling/Giffords[40][F] Sep 1–2, 2020 743 (V) – 48% 47% – – – 5%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News[41] Aug 28 – Sep 2, 2020 901 (LV) ± 3.26% 49%[e] 47% 1% 1% 1% –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[4] Aug 1–31, 2020 12,607 (LV) – 52% 46% – – – 2%
Morning Consult[42] Aug 21–30, 2020 2,632 (LV) ± 2% 48%[u] 47% – – – –
Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance[43][G] Aug 20–25, 2020 906 (LV) ± 3% 44% 48% 0% – 0%[v] 5%
Data for Progress/Texas Youth Power Alliance[44] Aug 20–25, 2020 2,295 (LV) ± 2.0% 45% 48% – – – 8%
Public Policy Polling/Texas Democrats[45][3][H] Aug 21–22, 2020 764 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 48% – – – 5%
Morning Consult[26] Aug 13–22, 2020 ~2,700 (LV) ± 2% 48% 47% – – – –
Morning Consult[42] Aug 7–16, 2020 2,559 (LV) ± 2% 47%[w] 46% – – – –
Global Strategy Group/Chrysta for Texas[46][I] Aug 11–13, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 45% 47% – – – –
YouGov/Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation/Rice University's Baker Institute[47] Aug 4–13, 2020 846 (RV) – 48% 41% 1% 1% – 10.2%
– (LV)[J] 50% 44% 1% 0% – 5%
Trafalgar Group (R)[48] Aug 1–5, 2020 1,015 (LV) ± 3.0% 49% 43% 2% – 2%[x] 3%
Morning Consult[26] Aug 3–12, 2020 ~2,700 (LV) ± 2.0% 47% 46% – – – –
Morning Consult[49] Jul 24 – Aug 2, 2020 2,576 (LV) ± 2.0% 46%[u] 47% – – 2%[f] 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[4] Jul 1–31, 2020 13,721 (LV) – 52% 46% – – – 2%
Morning Consult[50] Jul 17–26, 2020 2,685 (LV) ± 1.9% 45%[w] 47% – – – –
Morning Consult[50][4] Jul 16–25, 2020 ≈2,700 (LV)[y] ± 2.0% 45% 47% – – – –
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[51][K] Jul 16–20, 2020 750 (LV) ± 3.5% 49% 45% – – – 6%
Quinnipiac University[52] Jul 16–20, 2020 880 (RV) ± 3.3% 44% 45% – – 7%[z] 4%
Morning Consult[50] Jul 6–15, 2020 – (LV)[y] – 46% 46% – – – –
YouGov/CBS[53] Jul 7–10, 2020 1,185 (LV) ± 3.6% 46% 45% – – 4%[aa] 6%
Gravis Marketing/OANN[54] Jul 7, 2020 591 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 44% – – – –
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[55] Jun 29 – Jul 7, 2020 1,677 (LV) ± 2.4% 43% 48% – – 4% 5%
Morning Consult[50] Jun 26 – Jul 5, 2020 – (LV)[y] – 46% 45% – – – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[4] Jun 8–30, 2020 6,669 (LV) – 51% 46% – – – 2%
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Politics Project[56] Jun 19–29, 2020 1,200 (RV) ± 2.89% 48% 44% – – – 8%
Public Policy Polling[57][5] Jun 24–25, 2020 729 (RV) ± 3.6% 46% 48% – – – 5%
Morning Consult[50] Jun 16–25, 2020 – (LV)[y] – 47% 44% – – – –
Fox News[58] Jun 20–23, 2020 1,001 (RV) ± 3% 44% 45% – – 5%[ab] 5%
Public Policy Polling/Progress Texas[59][6][L] Jun 18–19, 2020 907 (V) ± 3% 48% 46% – – – 6%
Morning Consult[50] Jun 6–15, 2020 – (LV)[y] – 48% 45% – – – –
Morning Consult[50] May 27 – Jun 5, 2020 – (LV)[y] – 48% 43% – – – –
Public Policy Polling/Texas Democrats[60][M] Jun 2–3, 2020 683 (V) – 48% 48% – – – 4%
Quinnipiac[61] May 28 – Jun 1, 2020 1,166 (RV) ± 2.9% 44% 43% – – 6%[ac] 7%
Morning Consult[50] May 17–26, 2020 2,551 (LV) – 50%[u] 43% – – – –
Morning Consult[50] May 16–25, 2020 – (LV)[y] – 50% 42% – – – –
Morning Consult[50] May 6–15, 2020 – (LV)[y] – 49% 43% – – – –
Emerson College[62] May 8–10, 2020 800 (RV) ± 3.4% 52%[ad] 48% – – – –
Public Policy Polling[63] Apr 27–28, 2020 1,032 (V) – 46% 47% – – – 7%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[64] Apr 18–27, 2020 1,183 (RV) ± 2.85% 43% 43% – – 5% 9%
University of Texas/Texas Tribune[65] Apr 10–19, 2020 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 49% 44% – – – 7%
AtlasIntel[66] Feb 24 – Mar 2, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 43% – – 11% –
NBC News/Marist College[67] Feb 23–27, 2020 2,409 (RV) ± 2.5% 49% 45% – – 1% 5%
CNN/SSRS[68] Feb 22–26, 2020 1,003 (RV) ± 3.4% 47% 48% – – 3%[ae] 2%
Univision[69] Feb 21–26, 2020 1,004 (RV) ± 3.1% 43% 46% – – – 11%
Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler[70] Feb 17–26, 2020 1,221 (RV) ± 2.8% 45% 44% – – 11% –
YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune[71] Jan 31 – Feb 9, 2020 1,200 (RV) ± 2.83% 47% 44% – – – 10%
University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News[72] Jan 21–30, 2020 910 (LV) ± 3.24% 46% 44% – – 10%[af] –
Data For Progress[73][N] Jan 16–21, 2020 1,486 (LV) – 54% 40% – – 3%[ag] 3%
Texas Lyceum[74] Jan 10–19, 2020 520 (LV) ± 4.3% 51% 46% – – – 3%
CNN/SSRS[75] Dec 4–9, 2019 1,003 (RV) – 48% 47% – – 2%[ah] 3%
Beacon Research (R)[76] Nov 9–21, 2019 1,601 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 44% – – – –
University of Texas at Tyler[77] Nov 5–14, 2019 1,093 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 39% – – – 16%
University of Texas/Texas Tribune[78] Oct 18–27, 2019 1,200 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 39% – – 9%[ai] 6%
University of Texas at Tyler[79] Sep 13–15, 2019 1,199 (RV) ± 2.8% 38% 40% – – 13% 9%
Univision[80] Aug 31 – Sep 6, 2019 1,004 (RV) – 43% 47% – – – 10%
Climate Nexus[81] Aug 20–25, 2019 1,660 (RV) ± 2.4% 43% 43% – – – 9%
University of Texas at Tyler[82] Aug 1–4, 2019 1,261 (RV) ± 2.8% 37% 41% – – 14% 8%
Emerson[83] Aug 1–3, 2019 1,033 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 51% – – – –
University of Texas at Tyler[84] Jul 24–27, 2019 1,414 (RV) ± 2.6% 37% 37% – – 12% 14%
Quinnipiac University[85] May 29 – Jun 4, 2019 1,159 (RV) ± 3.4% 44% 48% – – 1% 4%
WPA Intelligence[86] Apr 27–30, 2019 200 (LV) ± 6.9% 49% 42% – – – 7%
Emerson College[87] Apr 25–28, 2019 799 (RV) ± 3.4% 50%[ad] 51% – – – –
Quinnipiac University[88] Feb 20–25, 2019 1,222 (RV) ± 3.4% 47% 46% – – 1% 5%
Public Policy Polling (D)[89][O] Feb 13–14, 2019 743 (RV) ± 3.6% 49% 46% – – – 5%

New Mexico notes

[edit]
Main article: 2020 United States presidential election in New Mexico

Aggregate polls

[edit]
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270 to Win[90] October 6 – November 1, 2020 November 3, 2020 53.5% 40.5% 6.0% Biden +13.0
FiveThirtyEight[91] until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 53.8% 42.3% 3.9% Biden +11.5
Average 53.7% 41.4% 4.9% Biden +12.3

Polls

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[aj] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Howie
Hawkins
Green 		Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios[92] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,481 (LV) ± 3.5% 42%[ak] 56% – – – –
Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal[93] Oct 23–29, 2020 1,180 (LV) ± 2.9% 42% 54% – – 3%[al] 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[92] Oct 1–28, 2020 2,719 (LV) – 46% 52% – – – –
GBAO Strategies/GBAO Strategies/Ben Ray Luján (D)[94][P] Oct 14–17, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 41% 54% – – – –
Public Policy Polling/NM Political Report[95] Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020 886 (LV) ± 3.3% 39% 53% 2% – 2%[am] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[92] Sep 1–30, 2020 1,015 (LV) – 44% 54% – – – 1%
Research & Polling Inc./Albuquerque Journal[96] Aug 26 – Sep 2, 2020 1,123 (LV) ± 2.9% 39% 54% – – – –
SurveyMonkey/Axios[92] Aug 1–31, 2020 1,087 (LV) – 43% 56% – – – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[92] Jul 1–31, 2020 904 (LV) – 48% 49% – – – 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[92] Jun 8–30, 2020 506 (LV) – 50% 49% – – – 1%
Public Policy Polling/NM Political Report[97] Jun 12–13, 2020 740 (V) ± 3.6% 39% 53% – – – 8%
Public Policy Polling/The Majority Institute[98][Q] Apr 20–21, 2020 1,091 (RV) ± 3.1% 40% 52% – – – –
Emerson College[99] Jan 3–6, 2020 967 (RV) ± 3.1% 46% 54% – – – –

Nevada notes

[edit]
Main article: 2020 United States presidential election in Nevada

Aggregate polls

[edit]
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Other/
Undecided
[a] 		Margin
270 to Win[100] October 16–31, 2020 November 1, 2020 49.4% 44.4% 6.2% Biden +5.0
Real Clear Politics[101] October 23 – November 2, 2020 November 1, 2020 48.7% 46.3% 5.0% Biden +2.4
FiveThirtyEight[102] until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 49.7% 44.4% 5.9% Biden +5.3
Average 49.3% 45.0% 5.7% Biden +4.3

Polls

[edit]
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[aj] 		Margin
of error 		Donald
Trump
Republican 		Joe
Biden
Democratic 		Jo
Jorgensen
Libertarian 		Other Undecided
Trafalgar Group[103] Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2020 1,024 (LV) ± 2.98% 49% 48% 1% 1%[n] 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[104] Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 2,366 (LV) ± 3% 49%[an] 49% - – –
Data for Progress[105] Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 1,442 (LV) ± 2.6% 44% 51% 3% 2%[ao] –
Emerson College[106] Oct 29–31, 2020 720 (LV) ± 3.6% 47% 49% - 4%[ap] –
Trafalgar Group[107] Oct 28–29, 2020 1,024 (LV) ± 2.98% 47% 49% 2% 1%[n] 1%
Gravis Marketing[108] Oct 27–28, 2020 688 (LV) ± 3.7% 44% 50% – – 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[104] Oct 1–28, 2020 3,333 (LV) – 49% 50% - – –
Siena College/NYT Upshot[109] Oct 23–26, 2020 809 (LV) ± 3.8% 43% 49% 3% 2%[aq] 4%[ar]
BUSR/University of Nevada[110] Oct 16–21,
Oct 23, 2020 		809 (LV) ± 4% 41% 50% – – –
Civiqs/Daily Kos[111] Oct 17–20, 2020 712 (LV) ± 5.3% 43% 52% - 3%[as] 1%
WPA Intelligence/Las Vegas Review-Journal/AARP[112] Oct 7–11, 2020 512 (LV) ± 4.4% 42% 44% 3% 5%[at] 6%
YouGov/CBS[113] Oct 6–9, 2020 1,036 (LV) ± 4.1% 46% 52% - 2%[au] 0%
Siena College/NYT Upshot[114] Oct 2–6, 2020 660 (LV) ± 4.3% 42% 48% 3% 1%[av] 6%[ar]
SurveyMonkey/Axios[104] Sep 1–30, 2020 1,239 (LV) – 47% 51% - - 2%
Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/American Greatness PAC[115][R] Sep 23–25, 2020 750 (LV) – 48% 49% - 2%[aw] 1%
Qualtrics/University of Nevada/BUSR[116] Sep 10–25, 2020 641 (LV) ± 4% 41% 46% - 7%[ax] 6%
Fox News[117] Sep 20–23, 2020 810 (LV) ± 3% 41% 52% 3% 2%[ay] 2%
911 (RV) ± 3% 40% 50% 3% 3%[az] 4%
ALG Research/ALG Research/The Nevada Independent (D)[118][S] Sep 15–21, 2020 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 43% 47% – – –
Siena College/NYT Upshot[119] Sep 8–10, 2020 462 (LV) ± 5.3% 42% 46% 3% 1%[ba] 7%[ar]
SurveyMonkey/Axios[104] Aug 1–31, 2020 998 (LV) – 49% 50% - – 1%
Qualtrics/University of Nevada/BUSR[116] Aug 20–30, 2020 682 (LV) ± 4% 39% 44% – 5%[bb] 12%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[104] Jul 1–31, 2020 1,021 (LV) – 52% 47% - - 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[104] Jun 8–30, 2020 609 (LV) – 49% 50% - - 1%
ALG Research/ALG Research/The Nevada Independent (D)[120][T] Apr 27–30, 2020 763 (LV) ± 3.6% 45% 49% – – –
AtlasIntel[121] Feb 19–21, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 44% – 15% –
FOX News[122] Jan 5–8, 2020 1,505 (RV) ± 2.5% 39% 47% – 9%[bc] 4%
FOX News[123] Nov 10–13, 2019 1,506 (RV) ± 2.5% 40% 47% – 9%[bc] 4%
Emerson College[124] Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2019 1,089 (RV) ± 2.9% 51% 49% – – –
Gravis Marketing[125] Aug 14–16, 2019 926 (RV) ± 3.2% 43% 49% – – 8%
Emerson College[126] Mar 28–30, 2019 719 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 52% – – –

Fairly Solid Republican States

[edit]
  • Alaska (R Lead 2016 14.7) now at 1/6 for R
  • Arkansas (R Lead 2016 26.9) now at 1/33 for R
  • Indiana R Lead 2016 19.0) now at 1/33 for R
  • Utah R Lead 2016 c. 25) now at 1/25 for R

Forthcoming

[edit]
Unibet
  • https://www.unibet.co.uk/betting/sports/drill-down/politics (United Kingdom, Australia, Denmark, European Union, France, Germany, Norway, Sweden)
  • 31 Oct 2020: 2020 Queensland state election
  • 3 Nov 2020: US presidential election
  • 3 Nov 2020: US Senate & HoR elections
  • 13 Mar 2021: West Australia Election
  • 13 Sep 2021: Norwegian General Election
  • 1 Oct 2021: German Federal Election
  • 18 Mar 2022: South Australia State Election
  • 7 May 2022: French Presidential Election
  • 1 Sep 2022: Swedish General Election
  • 26 Nov 2022: Victoria State Election
  • 1 Jan 2023: Danish General Election
  • 1 December 2024: UK general election
PP


Cite error: There are <ref group=lower-alpha> tags or {{efn}} templates on this page, but the references will not show without a {{reflist|group=lower-alpha}} template or {{notelist}} template (see the help page).

  1. ^ 270 to Win
  2. ^ Real Clear Politics
  3. ^ FiveThirtyEight
  4. ^ a b c d e f SurveyMonkey/Axios
  5. ^ Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  6. ^ Data For Progress
  7. ^ AtlasIntel
  8. ^ Emerson College
  9. ^ a b Morning Consult
  10. ^ Public Policy Polling
  11. ^ Gravis Marketing
  12. ^ RMG Research/PoliticalIQ Archived October 30, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  13. ^ Swayable
  14. ^ YouGov/UMass Amherst
  15. ^ Data for Progress (D)
  16. ^ Siena College/NYT Upshot
  17. ^ Univision/University of Houston/Latino
    Decisions/North Star Opinion Research
  18. ^ Citizen Data
  19. ^ YouGov/University of Houston
  20. ^ University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News
  21. ^ Quinnipiac University
  22. ^ Data for Progress (D)
  23. ^ Morning Consult
  24. ^ Public Policy Polling/Texas Democrats Archived October 14, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  25. ^ YouGov/CCES Archived November 1, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
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  27. ^ Pulse Opinion Research/Rasmussen Reports/Crosswind PR
  28. ^ Civiqs/Daily Kos
  29. ^ Data For Progress (D)
  30. ^ YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune
  31. ^ EMC Research/Blue Texas PAC
  32. ^ Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign
  33. ^ Public Policy Polling/Texas Democrats
  34. ^ YouGov/UMass Lowell
  35. ^ Data For Progress
  36. ^ Siena College/NYT Upshot
  37. ^ Quinnipiac University
  38. ^ YouGov/CBS
  39. ^ Morning Consult
  40. ^ Public Policy Polling/Giffords
  41. ^ University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas Morning News
  42. ^ a b Morning Consult
  43. ^ Tyson Group/Consumer Energy Alliance
  44. ^ Data for Progress/Texas Youth Power Alliance
  45. ^ Public Policy Polling/Texas Democrats
  46. ^ Global Strategy Group/Chrysta for Texas
  47. ^ YouGov/Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation/Rice University's Baker Institute
  48. ^ Trafalgar Group (R)
  49. ^ Morning Consult
  50. ^ a b c d e f g h i j Morning Consult
  51. ^ Spry Strategies/American Principles Project
  52. ^ Quinnipiac University
  53. ^ YouGov/CBS
  54. ^ Gravis Marketing/OANN
  55. ^ Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler
  56. ^ YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Politics Project
  57. ^ Public Policy Polling
  58. ^ Fox News
  59. ^ Public Policy Polling/Progress Texas
  60. ^ Public Policy Polling/Texas Democrats Archived June 5, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  61. ^ Quinnipiac
  62. ^ Emerson College
  63. ^ Public Policy Polling
  64. ^ Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler
  65. ^ University of Texas/Texas Tribune
  66. ^ AtlasIntel
  67. ^ NBC News/Marist College
  68. ^ CNN/SSRS
  69. ^ Univision
  70. ^ Dallas Morning News/University of Texas at Tyler
  71. ^ YouGov/University of Texas/Texas Tribune
  72. ^ University of Texas at Tyler/Dallas News Archived February 2, 2020, at the Wayback Machine
  73. ^ Data For Progress
  74. ^ Texas Lyceum
  75. ^ CNN/SSRS
  76. ^ Beacon Research (R)
  77. ^ University of Texas at Tyler
  78. ^ University of Texas/ Texas Tribune
  79. ^ University of Texas at Tyler
  80. ^ Univision
  81. ^ Climate Nexus
  82. ^ University of Texas at Tyler
  83. ^ Emerson
  84. ^ University of Texas at Tyler
  85. ^ Quinnipiac University
  86. ^ WPA Intelligence
  87. ^ Emerson College Archived July 3, 2019, at the Wayback Machine
  88. ^ Quinnipiac University
  89. ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
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