2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin
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| Turnout | 69.2% ( 3.7%)[1] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Wisconsin |
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The 2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin took place on November 4, 2008, as part of the 2008 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. State voters chose 10 electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote pitting Democratic U.S. Senator from Illinois Barack Obama, and his running mate U.S. Senator from Delaware Joe Biden, against Republican challenger and U.S. Senator from Arizona John McCain and his running mate, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.
Also on the ballot were four third parties: activist and former presidential candidate Ralph Nader ran as an Independent with his running mate, President of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors Matt Gonzalez. The Libertarian Party nominated former Representative from Georgia Bob Barr for president and conservative author Wayne Allyn Root for vice president. Pastor Chuck Baldwin and attorney Darrell Castle were nominated by the right-wing Constitution Party, and the left-wing Green Party nominated former Representative from Georgia Cynthia McKinney and community organizer Rosa Clemente.[2]
Wisconsin was won by Democratic nominee Barack Obama by a 13.91% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state Obama would win, or otherwise considered as a safe blue state, despite the extremely close margins of victory in the previous two presidential elections. Polling throughout the state began to show a sizable and widening lead for Democrat Barack Obama of neighboring Illinois over Republican John McCain of Arizona. Obama carried Wisconsin with over 56% of the vote, significantly improving upon John Kerry's very narrow margin of victory in 2004. Obama is the only candidate since 1988 to win the state with the majority of the vote, and the only candidate since 1996 to win by a margin of more than 1%, both of which he would go on to do again in 2012.
Whether measured by raw vote margin, percentage of total votes, or two-party percentage, Obama's victory remains the strongest performance for any candidate in the state since the landslide re-election of Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964. In fact, Obama carried two of three counties that voted for Barry Goldwater in that election and became the first Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 to carry Waupaca County, and only the second Democratic nominee to carry that county since the Civil War. This is also the last election where Wisconsin was decided by double digits.
Primaries
[edit]Campaign
[edit]Predictions
[edit]There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report[3] | Likely D |
| Cook Political Report[4] | Solid D |
| The Takeaway[5] | Solid D |
| Electoral-vote.com[6] | Solid D |
| Washington Post[7] | Solid D |
| Politico[8] | Solid D |
| RealClearPolitics[9] | Solid D |
| FiveThirtyEight[7] | Solid D |
| CQ Politics[10] | Solid D |
| The New York Times[11] | Lean D |
| CNN[12] | Lean D |
| NPR[7] | Solid D |
| MSNBC[7] | Solid D |
| Fox News[13] | Likely D |
| Associated Press[14] | Likely D |
| Rasmussen Reports[15] | Safe D |
Polling
[edit]Pre-election polling early on showed a tight race. However, after May 18, Obama swept every single poll. Since September 21, Obama won every poll with at least 49% of the vote. The final 3 polls averaged Obama leading 53% to 40%.[16]
Fundraising
[edit]John McCain raised a total of $1,728,185 in the state. Barack Obama raised $4,862,486.[17]
Advertising and visits
[edit]Obama and his interest groups spent $13,586,634. McCain and his interest groups spent $9,240,899.[18] Each ticket visited the state 7 times.[19]
Analysis
[edit]Having voted for the Democratic presidential nominees by comfortable margins in 1988, 1992, and 1996, but extremely narrow margins in 2000 and 2004, Wisconsin was originally considered to be a swing state in 2008.[20] However, Obama took a wide lead in the polls in Wisconsin in the final weeks before the election and many pundits and news organizations labeled the state as a safe blue state.[21]
Obama won Wisconsin by a comfortable 13.91% margin of victory. Obama carried the heavily Democratic cities of Milwaukee and Madison by large margins, winning above two-thirds of the vote, along with some traditionally Republican cities like Green Bay and Appleton.[22] In Dane County, he won almost 73% of the vote, and carried 67.3% in Milwaukee County. This was consistent with Obama's pattern of strong performances in the states bordering Illinois. Obama's best performance, at 86.81%, was in the small county of Menominee, which is 87% Native American.[23] The state's Republican base essentially melted; John McCain only carried 13 of the state's 72 counties, a devastating defeat. McCain did best in the Milwaukee suburbs like Waukesha and Ozaukee counties, with his best performance in Washington County where he received 64.14% of the vote. He only won five counties in the Northern part of the state, all of which by rather narrow margins.
Results
[edit]| 2008 United States presidential election in Wisconsin[2] | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | Barack Obama | Joe Biden | 1,677,211 | 56.22% | 10 | |
| Republican | John McCain | Sarah Palin | 1,262,393 | 42.31% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader | Matt Gonzalez | 17,605 | 0.59% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Bob Barr | Wayne Allyn Root | 8,858 | 0.30% | 0 | |
| Write-ins | Write-ins | 6,521 | 0.22% | 0 | ||
| Independent[a] | Chuck Baldwin | Darrell Castle | 5,072 | 0.17% | 0 | |
| Green | Cynthia McKinney | Rosa Clemente | 4,216 | 0.14% | 0 | |
| Independent[b] | Jeffrey Wamboldt | 764 | 0.03% | 0 | ||
| Independent[c] | Brian Moore | Stewart Alexander | 540 | 0.02% | 0 | |
| Independent[d] | Gloria La Riva | 237 | 0.01% | 0 | ||
| Totals | 2,983,417 | 100.00% | 10 | |||
| Voter turnout (Voting age population) | 70.8% | |||||
By county
[edit]| County | Barack Obama Democratic |
John McCain Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 5,806 | 58.14% | 3,974 | 39.80% | 206 | 2.06% | 1,832 | 18.34% | 9,986 |
| Ashland | 5,818 | 67.86% | 2,634 | 30.72% | 122 | 1.42% | 3,184 | 37.14% | 8,574 |
| Barron | 12,078 | 52.77% | 10,457 | 45.69% | 351 | 1.54% | 1,621 | 7.08% | 22,886 |
| Bayfield | 5,972 | 63.08% | 3,365 | 35.54% | 131 | 1.38% | 2,607 | 27.54% | 9,468 |
| Brown | 67,269 | 53.92% | 55,854 | 44.77% | 1,631 | 1.31% | 11,415 | 9.15% | 124,754 |
| Buffalo | 3,949 | 56.41% | 2,923 | 41.76% | 128 | 1.83% | 1,026 | 14.65% | 7,000 |
| Burnett | 4,337 | 49.92% | 4,200 | 48.34% | 151 | 1.74% | 137 | 1.58% | 8,688 |
| Calumet | 13,295 | 50.22% | 12,722 | 48.05% | 457 | 1.73% | 573 | 2.17% | 26,474 |
| Chippewa | 16,239 | 53.72% | 13,492 | 44.63% | 500 | 1.65% | 2,747 | 9.09% | 30,231 |
| Clark | 7,454 | 52.54% | 6,383 | 44.99% | 350 | 2.47% | 1,071 | 7.55% | 14,187 |
| Columbia | 16,661 | 56.92% | 12,193 | 41.65% | 418 | 1.43% | 4,468 | 15.27% | 29,272 |
| Crawford | 4,987 | 62.49% | 2,830 | 35.46% | 164 | 2.05% | 2,157 | 27.03% | 7,981 |
| Dane | 205,984 | 72.80% | 73,065 | 25.82% | 3,890 | 1.37% | 132,919 | 46.98% | 282,939 |
| Dodge | 19,183 | 44.80% | 23,015 | 53.74% | 625 | 1.46% | -3,832 | -8.94% | 42,823 |
| Door | 10,142 | 58.02% | 7,112 | 40.68% | 227 | 1.30% | 3,030 | 17.34% | 17,481 |
| Douglas | 15,830 | 65.78% | 7,835 | 32.56% | 401 | 1.66% | 7,995 | 33.22% | 24,066 |
| Dunn | 13,002 | 56.56% | 9,566 | 41.61% | 421 | 1.83% | 3,436 | 14.95% | 22,989 |
| Eau Claire | 33,146 | 60.25% | 20,959 | 38.10% | 905 | 1.65% | 12,187 | 22.15% | 55,010 |
| Florence | 1,134 | 42.23% | 1,512 | 56.31% | 39 | 1.46% | -378 | -14.08% | 2,685 |
| Fond du Lac | 23,463 | 44.84% | 28,164 | 53.83% | 696 | 1.33% | -4,701 | -8.99% | 52,323 |
| Forest | 2,673 | 57.08% | 1,963 | 41.92% | 47 | 1.00% | 710 | 15.16% | 4,683 |
| Grant | 14,875 | 61.16% | 9,068 | 37.29% | 377 | 1.55% | 5,807 | 23.87% | 24,320 |
| Green | 11,502 | 62.06% | 6,730 | 36.31% | 302 | 1.63% | 4,772 | 25.75% | 18,534 |
| Green Lake | 4,000 | 41.95% | 5,393 | 56.55% | 143 | 1.50% | -1,393 | -14.60% | 9,536 |
| Iowa | 7,987 | 66.73% | 3,829 | 31.99% | 153 | 1.28% | 4,158 | 34.74% | 11,969 |
| Iron | 1,914 | 55.77% | 1,464 | 42.66% | 54 | 1.57% | 450 | 13.11% | 3,432 |
| Jackson | 5,572 | 60.23% | 3,552 | 38.40% | 127 | 1.37% | 2,020 | 21.83% | 9,251 |
| Jefferson | 21,448 | 49.69% | 21,096 | 48.87% | 622 | 1.44% | 352 | 0.82% | 43,166 |
| Juneau | 6,186 | 53.65% | 5,148 | 44.65% | 196 | 1.70% | 1,038 | 9.00% | 11,530 |
| Kenosha | 45,836 | 58.18% | 31,609 | 40.12% | 1,344 | 1.70% | 14,227 | 18.06% | 78,789 |
| Kewaunee | 5,902 | 54.71% | 4,711 | 43.67% | 174 | 1.62% | 1,191 | 11.04% | 10,787 |
| La Crosse | 38,524 | 60.94% | 23,701 | 37.49% | 993 | 1.57% | 14,823 | 23.45% | 63,218 |
| Lafayette | 4,732 | 60.43% | 2,984 | 38.10% | 115 | 1.47% | 1,748 | 22.33% | 7,831 |
| Langlade | 5,182 | 49.82% | 5,081 | 48.85% | 139 | 1.33% | 101 | 0.97% | 10,402 |
| Lincoln | 8,424 | 55.17% | 6,519 | 42.70% | 325 | 2.13% | 1,905 | 12.47% | 15,268 |
| Manitowoc | 22,428 | 52.88% | 19,234 | 45.35% | 752 | 1.77% | 3,194 | 7.53% | 42,414 |
| Marathon | 36,367 | 53.53% | 30,345 | 44.66% | 1,228 | 1.81% | 6,022 | 8.87% | 67,940 |
| Marinette | 11,195 | 52.67% | 9,726 | 45.76% | 334 | 1.57% | 1,469 | 6.91% | 21,255 |
| Marquette | 4,068 | 51.85% | 3,654 | 46.57% | 124 | 1.58% | 414 | 5.28% | 7,846 |
| Menominee | 1,257 | 86.81% | 185 | 12.78% | 6 | 0.41% | 1,072 | 74.03% | 1,448 |
| Milwaukee | 319,819 | 67.30% | 149,445 | 31.45% | 5,928 | 1.25% | 170,374 | 35.85% | 475,192 |
| Monroe | 10,198 | 53.25% | 8,666 | 45.25% | 288 | 1.50% | 1,532 | 8.00% | 19,152 |
| Oconto | 9,927 | 52.34% | 8,755 | 46.16% | 286 | 1.50% | 1,172 | 6.18% | 18,968 |
| Oneida | 11,907 | 54.30% | 9,630 | 43.92% | 390 | 1.78% | 2,277 | 10.38% | 21,927 |
| Outagamie | 50,294 | 54.93% | 39,677 | 43.33% | 1,592 | 1.74% | 10,617 | 11.60% | 91,563 |
| Ozaukee | 20,579 | 38.56% | 32,172 | 60.29% | 614 | 1.15% | -11,593 | -21.73% | 53,365 |
| Pepin | 2,102 | 55.74% | 1,616 | 42.85% | 53 | 1.41% | 486 | 12.89% | 3,771 |
| Pierce | 11,803 | 53.39% | 9,812 | 44.38% | 492 | 2.23% | 1,991 | 9.01% | 22,107 |
| Polk | 10,876 | 48.03% | 11,282 | 49.83% | 485 | 2.14% | -406 | -1.80% | 22,643 |
| Portage | 24,817 | 62.95% | 13,810 | 35.03% | 795 | 2.02% | 11,007 | 27.92% | 39,422 |
| Price | 4,559 | 55.64% | 3,461 | 42.24% | 174 | 2.12% | 1,098 | 13.40% | 8,194 |
| Racine | 53,408 | 53.07% | 45,954 | 45.66% | 1,280 | 1.27% | 7,454 | 7.41% | 100,642 |
| Richland | 5,041 | 59.66% | 3,298 | 39.03% | 111 | 1.31% | 1,743 | 20.63% | 8,450 |
| Rock | 50,529 | 63.82% | 27,364 | 34.56% | 1,276 | 1.62% | 23,165 | 29.26% | 79,169 |
| Rusk | 3,855 | 53.01% | 3,253 | 44.73% | 164 | 2.26% | 602 | 8.28% | 7,272 |
| St. Croix | 21,177 | 47.25% | 22,837 | 50.95% | 807 | 1.80% | -1,660 | -3.70% | 44,821 |
| Sauk | 18,617 | 60.79% | 11,562 | 37.75% | 447 | 1.46% | 7,055 | 23.04% | 30,626 |
| Sawyer | 4,765 | 52.45% | 4,199 | 46.22% | 121 | 1.33% | 566 | 6.23% | 9,085 |
| Shawano | 10,259 | 51.07% | 9,538 | 47.48% | 292 | 1.45% | 721 | 3.59% | 20,089 |
| Sheboygan | 30,395 | 48.94% | 30,801 | 49.59% | 911 | 1.47% | -406 | -0.65% | 62,107 |
| Taylor | 4,563 | 48.82% | 4,586 | 49.07% | 197 | 2.11% | -23 | -0.25% | 9,346 |
| Trempealeau | 8,321 | 62.50% | 4,808 | 36.11% | 185 | 1.39% | 3,513 | 26.39% | 13,314 |
| Vernon | 8,463 | 60.13% | 5,367 | 38.13% | 245 | 1.74% | 3,096 | 22.00% | 14,075 |
| Vilas | 6,491 | 47.21% | 7,055 | 51.31% | 204 | 1.48% | -564 | -4.10% | 13,750 |
| Walworth | 24,177 | 47.95% | 25,485 | 50.54% | 760 | 1.51% | -1,308 | -2.59% | 50,422 |
| Washburn | 4,693 | 51.50% | 4,303 | 47.22% | 116 | 1.28% | 390 | 4.28% | 9,112 |
| Washington | 25,719 | 34.56% | 47,729 | 64.14% | 963 | 1.30% | -22,010 | -29.58% | 74,411 |
| Waukesha | 85,339 | 36.64% | 145,152 | 62.32% | 2,406 | 1.04% | -59,813 | -25.68% | 232,897 |
| Waupaca | 12,952 | 50.77% | 12,232 | 47.95% | 327 | 1.28% | 720 | 2.82% | 25,511 |
| Waushara | 5,868 | 49.52% | 5,770 | 48.70% | 211 | 1.78% | 98 | 0.82% | 11,849 |
| Winnebago | 48,167 | 54.94% | 37,946 | 43.28% | 1,564 | 1.78% | 10,221 | 11.66% | 87,677 |
| Wood | 21,710 | 55.59% | 16,581 | 42.46% | 761 | 1.95% | 5,129 | 13.13% | 39,052 |
| Totals | 1,677,211 | 56.22% | 1,262,393 | 42.31% | 43,813 | 1.47% | 414,818 | 13.91% | 2,983,417 |
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
[edit]- Barron (largest city: Rice Lake)
- Brown (largest city: Green Bay)
- Burnett (largest village: Grantsburg)
- Calumet (largest city: Chilton)
- Chippewa (largest city: Chippewa Falls)
- Clark (largest city: Neillsville)
- Columbia (largest city: Portage)
- Door (largest city: Sturgeon Bay)
- Forest (largest city: Crandon)
- Jefferson (largest city: Watertown)
- Juneau (largest city: Mauston)
- Kewaunee (largest city: Algoma)
- Langlade (largest city: Antigo)
- Lincoln (largest city: Merrill)
- Manitowoc (largest city: Manitowoc)
- Marathon (largest city: Wausau)
- Marinette (largest city: Marinette)
- Marquette (largest city: Montello)
- Monroe (largest city: Sparta)
- Oconto (largest city: Oconto)
- Oneida (largest city: Rhinelander)
- Outagamie (largest city: Appleton)
- Racine (largest city: Racine)
- Richland (largest city: Richland Center)
- Rusk (largest city: Ladysmith)
- Sawyer (largest city: Hayward)
- Shawano (largest city: Shawano)
- Washburn (largest city: Spooner)
- Waupaca (largest city: New London)
- Waushara (largest city: Berlin)
- Winnebago (largest city: Oshkosh)
- Wood (largest city: Marshfield)
| Democratic Hold Gain from Republican | Republican Hold |
By congressional district
[edit]Barack Obama swept the state, carrying seven of the state's eight congressional districts, including two districts held by Republicans.[25]
| District | McCain | Obama | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 47.45% | 51.40% | Paul Ryan |
| 2nd | 29.78% | 69.00% | Tammy Baldwin |
| 3rd | 40.80% | 57.76% | Ron Kind |
| 4th | 23.61% | 75.39% | Gwen Moore |
| 5th | 57.73% | 41.28% | Jim Sensenbrenner |
| 6th | 48.72% | 49.91% | Tom Petri |
| 7th | 42.52% | 55.91% | David Obey |
| 8th | 45.12% | 53.59% | Steve Kagen |
Electors
[edit]Technically the voters of Wisconsin cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Wisconsin is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[26]
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 10 were pledged to Barack Obama and Joe Biden:[27]
- Ray Rivera
- Fred Risser
- Rollie Hick
- Polly Williams
- Dean Palmer
- Gordon Hintz
- Christine Bremer-Muggli
- Donsia Strong Hill
- Jim Doyle
- Joe Wineke
See also
[edit]Notes
[edit]- ^ Ran as the national Constitution Party nominee, listed as an Independent on the ballot
- ^ Ran as a national nominee of the We the People Foundation, listed as an Independent on the ballot
- ^ Ran as the national Socialist Party USA nominee, listed as an Independent on the ballot
- ^ Ran as the national Party for Socialism and Liberation nominee, listed as an Independent on the ballot
References
[edit]- ^ "Wisconsin Voter Turnout Statistics". Wisconsin Election Commission. Retrieved September 25, 2020.
- ^ a b "OFFICIAL GENERAL ELECTION RESULTS FOR UNITED STATES PRESIDENT - NOVEMBER 4, 2008" (pdf). Federal Election Commission. Archived (pdf) from the original on November 3, 2023. Retrieved December 30, 2023.
- ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". January 1, 2009. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Presidential". May 5, 2015. Archived from the original on May 5, 2015. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". April 22, 2009. Archived from the original on April 22, 2009. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved August 23, 2021.
- ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
- ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on June 5, 2008.
- ^ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
- ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (November 4, 2008). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. October 31, 2008. Archived from the original on June 19, 2010. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
- ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved September 22, 2016.
- ^ "Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections". Retrieved December 19, 2022.
- ^ "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on March 24, 2009. Retrieved August 18, 2009.
- ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Reality Check: Wisconsin Still Considered A Swing State". Archived from the original on September 16, 2008. Retrieved November 12, 2008.
- ^ "RealClearPolitics: Wisconsin Head-to-Head Polls". Retrieved November 12, 2008.
- ^ "Local and National Election Results". CNN. Retrieved November 12, 2008.
- ^ "U.S. Census Bureau QuickFacts: Menominee County, Wisconsin; Wisconsin". www.census.gov. Retrieved November 18, 2020.
- ^ "Wisconsin". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 18, 2020.
- ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008 – Swing State Project". Retrieved November 18, 2020.
- ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved November 1, 2008.
- ^ "The Electoral College". May 20, 2019.
