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2010 United States Senate election in Iowa

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2010 United States Senate election in Iowa
← 2004 November 2, 2010 2016 →
 
Nominee Chuck Grassley Roxanne Conlin
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 718,215 371,686
Percentage 64.35% 33.30%
County results
Grassley:      50-60%      60-70%      70-80%      80-90%      >90%
Conlin:      50–60%
U.S. senator before election

Chuck Grassley
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Chuck Grassley
Republican

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The 2010 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 2, 2010, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections in Iowa. The party primary elections were held on June 8, 2010.[1] Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley won reelection to a sixth term. This was the first time since 1986 where the losing Democratic United States Senate nominee carried any of the counties in Iowa for this seat.

Republican primary

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Candidates

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Results

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Republican primary results[2]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Chuck Grassley (incumbent) 197,194 98.0%
Republican Write-ins 3,926 2.0%
Total votes 201,120 100.0%

Democratic primary

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Candidates

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Campaign

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Three Democrats sought the Democratic nomination. Former State Representative and Iowa Department of Transportation official Bob Krause drew attention for implying that Grassley had been in office too long, remarking to supporters in Des Moines: "As a good farmer, Sen. Grassley must recognize that 51 years, or 58 years at the end of his term, is a long time to go without rotating crops."[3] Both Krause and former State Senator Tom Fiegen cited Grassley's support of deregulating the financial services industry as reasons for running. Krause said, "Please remember that Farmer Grassley was one that opened the barn door and let the cow out at AIG,"[3] while Fiegen, a bankruptcy lawyer, made reducing unemployment and tightening regulation of the financial services industry the cornerstones of his campaign.[4]

Former Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Michael Kiernan said that he had recruited trial lawyer Roxanne Conlin to challenge Grassley.[5] Kiernan's virtual endorsement of Conlin prior to her announcement[6] drew the ire of party members, as it is counter to party rules when there is more than one candidate from the party competing in a primary race. Conlin had been criticized for being unwilling to debate her primary opponents,[7] and for being unfamiliar with and unsupportive of her own party's platform.[8]

On health care, Fiegen and Krause supported a public option,[9][10] while Conlin didn't state a position, which she had been criticized for. Krause and Feigen claimed she supported supply-side economics.[11] She also displayed an unfamiliarity with the Iowa Democratic Party's platform, repeatedly claiming there was no platform for her to support until after the June 12, 2010 convention.[8][12][13][14]

Results

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Democratic primary results[2]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Roxanne Conlin 52,715 77.5%
Democratic Bob Krause 8,728 12.9%
Democratic Tom Fiegen 6,357 9.4%
Democratic Write-ins 177 0.2%
Total votes 67,977 100.0%

General election

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Candidates

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Campaign

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Incumbent Chuck Grassley started the campaign moderately popular, but his approval ratings dropped somewhat during the campaign.[15] However, the seat continued to be considered to be "Safe Republican" by many sources, with CQ Politics noting that Grassley is "one of Iowa's most durable politicians."[16]

Conlin described herself as a "prairie progressive." She supported the recent landmark case of Varnum v. Brien, which legalized gay marriage in the state. She also supported repeal of "don't ask, don't tell."[17]

Before the election, former political advisor John Maxwell claimed that Grassley would have his toughest race since his first U.S. Senate election in 1980, where he defeated incumbent John Culver with 53% of the vote. Grassley won all of his four re-election bids with nearly 70% of the vote against unknown opponents.[18] Grassley won the election with 64.35% of the vote, which, in fact was his closest election since 1980.

Debates

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Grassley and Conlin agreed to one debate. It was on October 26 on Des Moines radio station WHO and Iowa Public Television.[19]

Predictions

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Source Ranking As of
Cook Political Report[20] Solid R October 26, 2010
Rothenberg[21] Safe R October 22, 2010
RealClearPolitics[22] Safe R October 26, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] Safe R October 21, 2010
CQ Politics[24] Safe R October 26, 2010

Polling

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Poll source Dates administered Chuck
Grassley (R) 		Roxanne
Conlin (D)
DailyKos/Research 2000[25] October 12–14, 2009 51% 39%
Rasmussen Reports[26] January 26, 2010 59% 31%
KCCI-TV[27] February 15–17, 2010 56% 35%
Rasmussen Reports[28] February 22, 2010 53% 36%
Rasmussen Reports[29] March 17, 2010 55% 36%
Rasmussen Reports[30] April 29, 2010 53% 40%
KCCI[31] May 3–5, 2010 49% 40%
Public Policy Polling[32] May 25–27, 2010 57% 31%
Rasmussen Reports[33] June 14, 2010 54% 37%
Rasmussen Reports[34] August 5, 2010 55% 35%
Des Moines Register[35] September 19–22, 2010 61% 30%
Rasmussen Reports[33] September 22–23, 2010 55% 37%
Des Moines Register[36] October 26–29, 2010 61% 30%

Fundraising

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Candidate (party) Receipts Disbursements Cash on hand Debt
Charles Grassley (R) $5,566,686 $4,962,347 $3,457,651 $6,913,216
Roxanne Conlin (D) $3,070,816 $2,653,914 $416,901 $100,000
Source: Federal Election Commission[37]

Results

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United States Senate election in Iowa, 2010[38]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Chuck Grassley (incumbent) 718,215 64.35% −5.83%
Democratic Roxanne Conlin 371,686 33.30% +5.43%
Libertarian John Heiderscheit 25,290 2.27% N/A
Write-in 872 0.08% N/A
Total votes 1,116,063 100.0%
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

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References

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  1. ^ Winner List Primary Election – June 8, 2010 Archived November 22, 2010, at the Wayback Machine Iowa Secretary of State
  2. ^ a b Official Results Report
  3. ^ a b Beaumont, Thomas (March 29, 2009). "Democrat says Grassley has been in Senate too long". KCCI.[permanent dead link‍]
  4. ^ "Iowa Democrat to Challenge Grassley - The Eye (CQ Politics)". Blogs.cqpolitics.com. August 12, 2009. Archived from the original on August 18, 2009. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  5. ^ "Conlin approached about Senate race in January". GazetteOnline.com. October 26, 2009. Archived from the original on July 10, 2012. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  6. ^ "Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Michael Kiernan: September 25, 2009". Iowa Public Television. September 25, 2009. Archived from the original on October 5, 2009. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  7. ^ "Democrat senate hopefuls turn attacks to each other". Iowa Independent. Archived from the original on July 17, 2011. Retrieved May 4, 2010.
  8. ^ a b "Replay: Live chat with U.S. Senate candidate Roxanne Conlin". GazetteOnline.com. April 28, 2010. Archived from the original on July 9, 2012. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  9. ^ "Issues". Archived from the original on March 3, 2016. Retrieved June 4, 2010.
  10. ^ "Krause For Iowa's Future - On The Issues: Health Care". Krauseforiowa.com. May 17, 2010. Archived from the original on October 6, 2011. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  11. ^ Sullivan, Adam B (May 26, 2010). "On the issues, Conlin sees few differences with her Democratic rivals". Iowa Independent. Archived from the original on May 29, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  12. ^ "Conlin attacked over ties to lobbyist during second U.S. Senate forum". IowaPolitics.com. May 28, 2010. Archived from the original on October 14, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  13. ^ "Iowa Democrats" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on July 22, 2011. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  14. ^ "Documents". Iowa Democratic Party. Archived from the original on July 1, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  15. ^ "IA Sr Sen Approval". SurveyUSA. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
  16. ^ "Senate Race Ratings Map for 2010". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on August 31, 2010. Retrieved September 29, 2010.
  17. ^ "LGBT Issues | Roxanne Conlin for Iowa". Roxanneforiowa.com. Archived from the original on August 12, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  18. ^ "Analysts: Roxanne Conlin likely to be Chuck Grassley's top rival since '80 | Des Moines Register Staff Blogs". Blogs.desmoinesregister.com. June 11, 2010. Archived from the original on July 7, 2012. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
  19. ^ desmoinesdem (October 26, 2010). "IA-Sen: Grassley-Conlin debate discussion thread". Bleeding Heartland. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
  20. ^ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  21. ^ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  22. ^ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  23. ^ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  24. ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
  25. ^ DailyKos/Research 2000
  26. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  27. ^ KCCI-TV
  28. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  29. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  30. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  31. ^ KCCI
  32. ^ Public Policy Polling
  33. ^ a b Rasmussen Reports
  34. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  35. ^ Des Moines Register
  36. ^ Des Moines Register
  37. ^ "2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Iowa". fec.gov. Retrieved July 25, 2010.[permanent dead link‍]
  38. ^ Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 2, 2010
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Official candidate websites (Archived)

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