Talk:Solomon curve

Online ref

A summary was first published to congress, but I can't find any online reference to it:

"The federal role in highway safety" House Document 93, 86th Congress, First Session 1959 pages 71 to 84--Ludasaphire (talk) 01:11, 3 March 2009 (UTC)[reply]

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Question

What was the source of speed data? It all sounds fishy. Oh, yes, today's car may record speed in their computers, but it definitely was not the case in '64. Witnesses? Something scribbled by a road cop to fill the box? Or did he only consider the cases involving a thorough investigation of the crash, with expert opinions etc.? The article needs to elaborate more on the data and its limitations.

I recall the only serious accident that I was involved in (as a driver). I was speeding (just like the whole "pack" did) 90 in a 60 kmh zone, in heavy rain. Saw the stop light just a bit too late - the wheels locked in the very end of the braking, when the speed was (my guesstimate) below 30. Evading collision, I skidded left, hitting a high curb at around 20, and came to rest hitting a concrete column at around 10. None of these numbers appear in police records: there were no radars or witnesses on site, and no need for further investigation (no one was hurt but the car which rear-ended me one minute later was practically totalled). How would this case appear in Solomon's stats?

Cheers, East of Borschov 07:21, 6 August 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Hi East of Borschov. Let me do some research and see if I can answer your question in the article (or, rather, you can once I find an appropriate source). It may be that there is nothing published on this, in which case I'll ask Mr. Solomon and get back to you, although we might not be able to update the article with that information. It might take me a while, so be patient.Ludasaphire (talk) 11:28, 6 August 2010 (UTC)[reply]

The initial publication of the research, "Accidents on main rural highways related to speed, driver, and vehicle," sets out that the speeds were determined from the accident reports that were filled out by the police and drivers involved in the accidents. They represent the speed of the vehicle prior to the accident. These were the "operating speeds" of the cars, not the "impact speeds."Ludasaphire (talk) 02:24, 7 August 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Each vehicle involved in the accident would represent one "collision," and the best estimate for the speed that vehicle was traveling just prior to the start of the incident would be a point in the data set. If, as you say, everyone was traveling at very close to the same speed, all those collisions would be grouped near zero on the Solomon curve, slightly below the optimum point. All this makes perfect sense once you understand what the data means. It's probably intuitively obvious to most experienced drivers that there is some optimum speed for safety, and that that speed is going to be close to the mean traffic speed. Once you understand that, statistically speaking, speed relative to the speed limit means very little but deviation from the mean speed matters a lot, it all falls into place.--Tedd (talk) 21:52, 23 December 2012 (UTC)[reply]

Another question

What does "mean operating speed" mean (in Solomon's theory) when different lanes normally have different speeds? The truck lane steams at 90, the fast lane flies at 150. Does "mean" mean the lowest (90) or, indeed, some abstract in-between number? East of Borschov 07:29, 6 August 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Again, let me check and get back to you with a source or two with the information so you can update the article or, at least, a response from Mr. Solomon.Ludasaphire (talk) 11:30, 6 August 2010 (UTC)[reply]

As explained in the seminal publication "Accidents on main rural highways related to speed, driver, and vehicle" the mean operating speed in the study means the mean speed of all traffic, not separated by type of vehicle or lane position.Ludasaphire (talk) 02:16, 7 August 2010 (UTC)[reply]

Just to clarify, "mean operating speed" in this context means the mean (average) speed of the flow of traffic the vehicle in question was in. That is, it is not in any way related to the speed limit, except indirectly (in as much as the mean traffic speed is usually somewhere in the vicinity of the speed limit). The optimum (i.e., minimum) point on the Solomon curve is often well in excess of the speed limit, which is an important (but often overlooked) finding.--Tedd (talk) 01:59, 18 December 2012 (UTC)[reply]

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