Talk:COVID-19 lab leak theory/Archive 36

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Archive 36

The COVID-19 Lab Leak Hypothesis is a Minority Scientific Viewpoint

The lab leak hypothesis, which suggests that the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic may have originated in a laboratory-related incident, remains a minority viewpoint within the scientific community. While the prevailing consensus points to a natural, zoonotic origin for the virus, several experts continue to argue that the lab leak hypothesis is plausible based on correlative evidence and circumstantial factors. For instance, Richard Ebright, a prominent microbiologist, maintains that molecular data over time strengthens the likelihood of a lab leak, pointing to an evolving understanding of the virus’s genetic sequence.

Most virologists say that a lab-leak origin is possible. For example, former National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Director Dr. Anthony Fauci said he has always been open to the lab leak hypothesis. In testimony before the House Select Committee on the Coronavirus, Fauci stated, “It is inconceivable that anyone who reads this e-mail could conclude that I was trying to cover up the possibility of a laboratory leak”.

All agencies within the US Intelligence Community (IC) continue to assess that both a natural and laboratory-associated origin remain plausible hypotheses to explain the first human infection. The White House has stated there is no consensus within the U.S. government on the virus's origin.

Four IC elements and the National Intelligence Council assess with low confidence that the initial SARS-CoV-2 infection was most likely caused by natural exposure to an animal infected with it or a close progenitor virus. 2601:3C4:4300:9A0:F5F6:8F3C:5B24:BA31 (talk) 08:41, 12 November 2024 (UTC) Lardlegwarmers (talk) 04:04, 13 November 2024 (UTC)

References

What's this? An example of how not to follow the WP:BESTSOURCES, and so swerve WP:NPOV? Bon courage (talk) 04:09, 13 November 2024 (UTC)

Extended-confirmed-protected edit request on 15 November 2024

I believe this page has been compromised by China, and needs upgraded protection. The Lab Leak has gained significant revisiting, and now seems to be the 50/50 thought. Just click “covid lab leak news” and multiple, credit newspapers are saying it came from a lab. I suggest updating this page to reflect reality, and to present it in a significantly less biased manner. It’s concerning. 2605:8D80:502:6E1E:AC2C:CA8F:93F3:25FD (talk) 00:53, 15 November 2024 (UTC)

 Not done: it's not clear what changes you want to be made. Please mention the specific changes in a "change X to Y" format and provide a reliable source if appropriate. --AntiDionysius (talk) 00:57, 15 November 2024 (UTC)

Change the consensus to “lab leak theory is a minority scientific viewpoint” as opposed to a conspiracy theory. There has been ample material provided by credible sources to support this change. 2601:3C4:4300:9A0:F4EB:4C2F:5A64:890D (talk) 08:22, 15 November 2024 (UTC)

New York Times. “Why the Pandemic Probably Started in a Lab, in 5 Key Points”

By Alina Chan

Dr. Chan is a molecular biologist at the Broad Institute of M.I.T. and Harvard, and a co-author of “Viral: The Search for the Origin of Covid-19.” 2601:3C4:4300:9A0:F4EB:4C2F:5A64:890D (talk) 08:26, 15 November 2024 (UTC)

China actually pushes lab leak ideas, in their "Americans did it" flavor. Those are just as baseless as the "Chinese did it" ones. --Hob Gadling (talk) 08:20, 15 November 2024 (UTC)

If Donald Trump wins the US election

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/31520401/wuhan-lab-leak-trump-election/

• Classified intelligence on the origins of Covid may finally be released if Donald Trump wins the US election, America's top virologist has said.
• Dr Redfield said: "We can actually have a real investigation with subpoena power."
• "I haven't seen really much interest from the current administration - especially when you did a 90-day commission that had virtually no answers and wasn't done very scientifically."

2600:8804:6600:4:112C:6924:5E1D:6D4D (talk) 16:05, 7 November 2024 (UTC)

Very much a case of lets wait and see. Slatersteven (talk) 16:13, 7 November 2024 (UTC)

Trump’s return raises concerns about funding cuts and politicization at the NIH

• https://www.statnews.com/2024/11/08/nih-faces-uncertain-future-trump-presidency/

For consideration to be included under the Polication, academic and media attention section. 2600:8804:6600:4:757D:D3AF:6C59:A5C6 (talk) 22:55, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

Is there any connection to the purpose of this page, the improvement of the article? --Hob Gadling (talk) 22:18, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

Paul: ‘Hopeful’ RFK Jr. Will Have a ‘Big Influence’ in the Incoming Trump Administration

• “We’re very hopeful that whoever will be head of Health and Human Services will now reveal the documents I’ve been trying to get for three years.”
• “NIH and HHS have refused to turn over the documents as to why Wuhan got this research money and why it wasn’t screened as dangerous research,” the Kentucky lawmaker added. “Those documents exist and they won’t give them to me. I think a friendly Trump administration will. I’m looking forward to getting those, mainly because we need to try to make sure this doesn’t happen again.”

2600:8804:6600:4:757D:D3AF:6C59:A5C6 (talk) 22:53, 8 November 2024 (UTC)

This is an encyclopedia. Can't imagine why we would use Robert R. Redfield or RFK Jr. as sources. In any case, we do not have a WP:CRYSTALBALL and shouldn't pretend that we do. We document what has happened, not what might happen.

O3000, Ret. (talk) 01:21, 9 November 2024 (UTC)

Wikipedia routinely users quotes in articles... 184.182.203.105 (talk) 03:53, 9 November 2024 (UTC)

Crystalballing, we do not yet know what Trump or RFK will do. Weh they do it we might be able to include it (taking into account wp:undue). |Slatersteven (talk) 10:54, 9 November 2024 (UTC)

Major biomedical funder NIH poised for massive reform under Trump 2.0

• Sweeping changes and more research scrutiny could be on the way for the US National Institutes of Health.
• https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-03736-0
• "These proposals have in part been fuelled by discontent over the agency’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the perception that its oversight of research on potentially risky pathogens has been lax." — Preceding unsigned comment added by 2600:8804:6600:4:9976:C344:88AF:7B93 (talk) 22:21, 15 November 2024 (UTC)

Extended-confirmed-protected edit request on 16 November 2024

Propose adding in the lead paragraph:

Although investigation and debate into the origins of the pandemic are ongoing, and the majority of scientists support the zoonotic origin hypothesis, a small minority of scientists, as well as all of the agencies in the United States Intelligence Community, have suggested that the laboratory leak hypothesis is at least plausible and warrants further consideration. Although there is no conclusive proof, significant circumstantial evidence suggests that the initial COVID-19 outbreak may have originated in a laboratory. However, most of the evidence suggests that the SARS-CoV-2 virus was originally harbored by bats, and spread to humans from infected wild animals, functioning as an intermediate host, at the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan, Hubei, China, in December 2019. Lardlegwarmers (talk) 05:09, 16 November 2024 (UTC)

 Not done No consensus for the WP:PROFRINGE effort. Bon courage (talk) 07:50, 16 November 2024 (UTC)

A Talk:Fringe theory is defined as:

“Fringe theories in a nutshell: To maintain a neutral point of view, an idea that is not broadly supported by scholarship in its field must not be given undue weight in an article about a mainstream idea. More extensive treatment should be reserved for an article about the idea, which must meet the test of notability. Additionally, in an article about the minority viewpoint itself, the proper contextual relationship between minority and majority viewpoints must be made clear.”

The statement, in an article about the idea that “a small minority of scientists and the intelligence community consider the lab leak hypothesis to be at least plausible” is not giving “undue weight in an article about a mainstream idea.” and does make clear “the proper contextual relationship between minority and majority viewpoints”

1) COVID-19 lab leak theory is “an article about the idea” itself,

2) The topic meets the test of Notability in the English Wikipedia

3) The statement “a small minority of scientists and the intelligence community consider the lab leak hypothesis to be at least plausible” is well supported by the cited references, and;

4) It clarifies the proper contextual relationship between majority and minority viewpoints.

5) The editors proposing these changes are not Wikipedia:PROFRINGE. The editors proposing these changes are not “the inventors or promoters of that theory”. The lab leak hypothesis is considered to be plausible by a minority of scientists and by the US Intelligence Community. Whereas, the editors proposing these changes are simply trying to improve Wikipedia by correcting the article to include this information, which has been already published in the aforementioned reputable sources. Lardlegwarmers (talk) 17:10, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

Again,  Not done. Consensus for inclusion should be established before making an edit request, and that clearly has not happened here. - MrOllie (talk) 17:32, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

OK, to all the editors with a position on this proposed edit: please provide your reasons for supporting or proposing the edit. Lardlegwarmers (talk) 19:37, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

Opposed - This gives undue prominence to a fringe viewpoint. — Shibbolethink ^{(♔ ♕)} 18:09, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

WP:UNDUE is defined as: “Giving due weight and avoiding giving undue weight means articles should not give minority views or aspects as much of or as detailed a description as more widely held views or widely supported aspects. Generally, the views of tiny minorities should not be included at all, except perhaps in a "see also" to an article about those specific views.”

1)) WP:UNDUE would apply to a proposed edit to the main article (Origin of SARS-CoV-2) that presented the lab leak hypothesis as if it had equal support to the zoonotic hypothesis amongst virologists in the peer-reviewed literature. This is not the focus of the proposed edit. “In articles specifically relating to a minority viewpoint, such views may receive more attention and space.”

2) The COVID-19 lab leak theory article is “an article about those specific views”. In particular, it is an article about a Hypothesis (a proposed explanation) that a minority of scientists and all of the US intelligence community consider to be plausible (likely to be true, but not necessarily true).

3) It is appropriate that the article about the idea itself should be clear about the relative weight and support for the idea, and “describe these ideas in their proper context” (see: Wikipedia:neutral point of view#Giving "equal validity" can create a false balance) namely, that the idea is a hypothesis, supported by a small minority of scientists, and considered at least plausible by all of the US Intelligence Community. This claim is extensively supported by reliable references here. Lardlegwarmers (talk) 20:08, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

Oppose - Not sure why that would need to be added. Looks to me that info is already present in the intro. At best that just seems completely redundant. --McSly (talk) 22:15, 17 November 2024 (UTC)

That is not true. Any information this article has on the reputable sources that have endorsed the position, and the evidence for it is either missing or buried under copious counterarguments, accusations of being either a total “conspiracy theory””, “misplaced”, or, alternatively, having some ground in science, but not supported by any evidence, or else scant evidence. Nowhere in the first paragraph is there mention that it is a minority scientific hypothesis, nor of the intelligence community’s assessment that all of the US agencies are open to the view, nor of any evidence to support the view whatsoever. The first paragraph contains: one sentence that defines “the lab leak theory”, one sentence that states that the lab leak theory is controversial and describes the majority scientific view about the Origin of SARS-CoV-2, two more sentences that articulate the majority scientific view (zoonotic origin), and a sentence describing two items of evidence against the lab leak. Propose that we clarify further up in the lead that this is a hypothesis that has been endorsed by legitimate scientists and that the IC community assessed that it is plausible, and at least mention some of the circumstantial evidence for the theory. Lardlegwarmers (talk) 02:59, 18 November 2024 (UTC)

What you've described is called neutrality. Your proposal would WP:GEVAL it. There are plenty of high-quality sources on this topic, as cited by this article. Alina Chan's writings (good grief) are not among them. Bon courage (talk) 04:35, 18 November 2024 (UTC)

Thanks for your clarifications. I still believe that the lede does not neutrally represent the balance of the material contained in the body of the article. The first paragraph contains not a shred of support for the idea, even though the body itself is replete with instances where reputable authorities have described compelling circumstantial evidence to support the hypothesis, including evidence that counts against the majority view, that they consider the scenario to be a viable possibility, worthy of further investigation by mainstream scientists, or that the lack of a smoking gun is consistent with the scientific investigation being inadequate so far. Lardlegwarmers (talk) 21:46, 18 November 2024 (UTC)

There is no evidence, as the article says, let alone "compelling" evidence. Wikipedia follows sources, not the fancies of editors. Bon courage (talk) 01:40, 19 November 2024 (UTC)

But there is evidence! It’s not as strong as the majority opinion, but there is enough for it to qualify as a legitimate scientific hypothesis AKA minority scientific view, and as a possible scenario in the eyes of the US government.

1) The initial outbreak occurred close to the Wuhan lab, where they were performing research on coronaviruses.

2) Three researchers there were hospitalized immediately before the outbreak.

3) There were never any bats or any other wild animals found in the area of the initial outbreak to be infected with the same exact virus that causes Covid-19 [1]

3) Regarding a lab leak, “That possibility certainly exists, and I am totally in favour of a full investigation of whether that could have happened," Anthony Fauci, President Biden's chief medical adviser, told a US Senate committee hearing in May 2021. And Dr Fauci said in 2021 he was "not convinced" the virus originated naturally.

4) A full investigation never occurred due to non-cooperation by the host country. “From day one China has been engaged in a massive cover-up," Jamie Metzl, a fellow at the Washington-based Atlantic Council who has been pushing for the lab-leak theory to be looked into, told the BBC in 2021. "We should be demanding the full investigation of all origin hypotheses that's required."

5) A prominent group of scientists criticized the WHO report. "We must take hypotheses about both natural and laboratory spillovers seriously until we have sufficient data," the scientists wrote in Science Magazine.

6) WHO's own director-general, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, called for a new investigation, saying: "All hypotheses remain open and require further study."

[2] Lardlegwarmers (talk) 04:08, 19 November 2024 (UTC)

Have you read this article? It explains the fallacies, conspiracy theories and misinformation you are repeating (alongside irrelevancies). As the article explains there is no evidence SARS-CoV-2 existed prior to the pandemic and no evidence of any laboratory incident. Wikipedia reflects that, to be neutral. Anyway, your request has been answered so we are done. Bon courage (talk) 04:17, 19 November 2024 (UTC)

That’s incorrect. I have provided valid citations to support my evidence. If you disagree, please provide specific, substantive reasons to support your reasons for why you believe my claims are mere “fallacies, conspiracy theories, [] misinformation … [and] irrelevancies,” rather than just referring me to the article. You have repeatedly Wikipedia:Status quo stonewalling#Reverting with "discuss first" without discussing, you have not provided any substantive arguments in favor of your position, but have merely thrown out generalizations (e.g., “misinformation”) and links to policies, without explaining substantively how and why those policies apply, and are now apparently “Refusing to continue to discuss”. Lardlegwarmers (talk) 06:20, 19 November 2024 (UTC)

It's not my job to satisfy you; it's yours to achieve consensus for changes you desire. If you read this article the information is there, like the canard about the 'hospitalized researchers' (unrelated to the origins of the outbreak, in fact). As to your stonewalling accusation, well that too is simply untrue. Bon courage (talk) 06:57, 19 November 2024 (UTC)

I looked at your first reason The initial outbreak occurred close to the Wuhan lab, where they were performing research on coronaviruses.

The article says this: this very closeness has made it easy for conspiracy theories to take root suggesting the laboratory must be the virus' origin.[18] However virology labs are often built near potential outbreak areas

So, Bon courage's response Have you read this article? is spot on. If you have a list of reasons that are supposedly "evidence", but the very first reason is already refuted in the article, then what you are doing constitutes chutzpah, not serious encyclopedic work. --Hob Gadling (talk) 07:03, 19 November 2024 (UTC)

We are not here to debate the topic, but to determine the correct representation in the article based on material that has already been published by reputable sources. All I am saying is that there is clearly enough material presented by reputable sources —in support of the hypothesis—to warrant a least a tiny nod in the lede to that effect. Right now, the lede is a wholesale dismissal of the hypothesis, followed by a body that contains a ton of information by reputable sources who consider the hypothesis to be a viable minority viewpoint, even if there are also other sources who weigh in against that. It is not 100% zoonotic, 0% lab leak, as the lede would suggest. Lardlegwarmers (talk) 07:26, 19 November 2024 (UTC)

Err, you were the one trumpeting "compelling evidence". Again, read the lede: it already says what most and some scientists think. Bon courage (talk) 07:29, 19 November 2024 (UTC)

I was just doing that to negate what you had broached: “ There is no evidence, as the article says, let alone "compelling" evidence. Wikipedia follows sources, not the fancies of editors. Bon courage (talk) 01:40, 19 November 2024 (UTC)”

The claim “there is no evidence” is false. And the article does contain a ton of sources that support the theory. Lardlegwarmers (talk) 08:08, 19 November 2024 (UTC)

Within science, "no evidence" is short for "no evidence that is neither ridiculous nor refuted". There is always "evidence" in the loose meaning of the word; there is "evidence" for 2+2=5. --Hob Gadling (talk) 09:34, 19 November 2024 (UTC)

References