Talk:Billingsley Report

1907 Penn / 1907 Yale

Pennsylvania claims the 1907 National Championship based off the Billingsly report, but that selection does not currently appear in the NCAA book.

But looking back at his website I do see a selection of Penn for 1907. Found the website via this newspaper column.

Homepage and National Champions 1869-1997 By Year using the page "ychamps.htm": "1907 Pennsylvania"

After a website update the CFRC webpage then had a "National Champions By Year" link that pointed to "ncyear.htm", which says "1907 Pennsylvania" https://web.archive.org/web/20021014034848/http://www.cfrc.com/html/ncyear.htm

In October 2002 the "National Champions By Year" link on the home page changed to instead point to "NC_Year.htm", which states "1907 Yale": https://web.archive.org/web/20021011112956/http://www.cfrc.com/Archives/NC_Year.htm and that "These Champions were Derived Using The Current “No Margin” Formula."

2002 seems to line up with the purge of "margin of victory" from the BCS calculations. Not sure how either selection relates to the "Billingsley MOV" alternate calculation.

The pre-2002 NCAA books should be investigated to see if they contain a 1907 Penn selection.

Vanderbilt for 1906 and 1911 also immediately stand out. Need to check these lists for other differences from each other and from the current NCAA book.

PK-WIKI (talk) 07:41, 10 May 2023 (UTC)

Billingsley Report changes in NCAA records books

There were several sets of Billingsley Report selections included in the NCAA records books:

1995 book:

• First appearance of Billingsley in the NCAA records book
• Ratings only for 1960–1994

1996–1999 NCAA books:

• Same selections for 1960–1994 as the 1995 book.
• "In 1996, he finished his three-year research project ranking the national champions from 1869–95. Predated national champions from 1869–1959."
• In 1998 book, active years changes to "1970–present". Previous books list "1960–present" as non-retroactive selections.
• Selections correspond with this archived page on the CFRC website.

2000–2003 NCAA books:

• No apparent mention by NCAA of the major changes from the 1999 book.
• Article says that Billingsley "Tinkered with formula after 1998, in part to accommodate BCS, adding emphasis on opponents' strength and softening emphasis on winning/losing margin."
• Selections correspond with this archived page on the CFRC website.

2004–2012 NCAA books:

• "The 2004 publication represents an updated list of champions based on his ‘no margin of victory formula,’ and supercedes any previous reports."
• "The Billingsley Ratings were converted in 2003 to conform to his “no margin of victory” formula to match the requirements of the BCS."
• Selections correspond with this archived page on the CFRC website and this page.

2013–present NCAA books:

• "The Billingsley formula does not use margin of victory, however, the Billingsley MOV formula does include margin of victory in the calculations."
• Selections correspond with this archived page on the CFRC website.
• NCAA books have selections switched for 1944/1945, list incorrect pick of 7–2 Ohio State for 1945. His website correctly shows Ohio State / Army (MOV) for 1944 and Army alone for 1945.

I've added a table containing all four sets of champions printed in the NCAA records books to the article.

PK-WIKI (talk) 07:24, 11 May 2023 (UTC)

Odd circumstance

As mentioned in the article, the fourth distinct set of champions is not a simple superset of the previous two sets of champions. Not only that, but also in all 11 instances of a change in the top-ranked team between the third (BCS No MoV) and fourth (No MoV) distinct sets, the new number one "No MoV" team is never also the new number one with MoV. In all 11 instances, there are two different teams that split Billingsley's current rankings. This does not happen in the other 131 seasons when there is not a change. Jeff in CA (talk) 09:38, 25 July 2023 (UTC)

Yes the 4th set of champions is very confusing.

In every change, the 3rd set's "No MOV" champion is listed as the 4th set's "Yes MOV" champion. (With the possible exception of 1976, see topic below.)

Then the 4th set's default / "No MOV" champion breaks out like below:

• A new champion never yet selected by Billingsley for that year:

1911, 1915, 1916, 1944, 1976, 1997

• Champion from the original BCS "Yes MOV" formula:

1914, 1919, 1921, 1922

• Champion from the pre-BCS formula, but not retained in the BCS years:

1913

It seems clear that a new formula was used for the 4th set of picks. I have not yet identified when/why that change occurred. On the CFRC website these "MOV" picks were listed as the "Billingsley+ Report" during this era.

The other interesting question is if this new formula (the "No MOV" pick) was used in the final couple years of Billingsley's official involvement with the BCS.

PK-WIKI (talk) 20:02, 25 July 2023 (UTC)

Dubious?

Why, in the third set of champions (BCS No MoV), is the 1976 team (USC) tagged as dubious? Jeff in CA (talk) 09:42, 25 July 2023 (UTC)

The 2002 CFRC website lists Pittsburgh as the champion for 1976.

I'm inclined to think the NCAA book listing of USC is an error. (Although USC for 1976 better fits the pattern of the 3rd set's "No MOV" champion switching to the 4th set's "Yes MOV" champion shown by the 10 other changes.)

PK-WIKI (talk) PK-WIKI (talk) 14:45, 25 July 2023 (UTC)

Published in the Houston Heights Leader

Per correspondence with Richard Billingsley:

The first rankings in print were the final rankings of 1970. It was printed as a handout to local citizens. The first newspaper print was the final rankings of 1973 in a neighborhood newspaper called the Houston Heights Leader.

It would be interesting to find these original publications in The Leader (Houston). I'm not sure if any digital archives are available; perhaps from a local library or other archive. If anyone near Houston would be able to take a look, please let me know.

PK-WIKI (talk) 01:10, 26 October 2023 (UTC)