Talk:2024 Sri Lankan presidential election

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Errors/possible misunderstanding of reported opinion polls by Institute for Health Policy

IHP's voting intent estimates, which are reported in the Opinion polls section, are produced using multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) polling, which is a modeling approach to tracking public opinion. See Multilevel regression with poststratification for Wiki's write up, and the citation in that article to a New Scientist article discussing the YouGov use of MRP (https://www.newscientist.com/article/2134144-how-yougovs-experimental-poll-correctly-called-the-uk-election/#ixzz63vulf5ZP).

As the IHP reports, linked in the table, indicate, the sample sizes for the MRP estimates are the full sample over several months, so typically 10,000+. Wiki authors should consider this when reporting sample sizes. The actual full samples used in its MRP estimations are given in the linked documents.

As MRP polling is different to standard sample polling, this may make comparisons with other standard polls misleading. But this seems to be a generic issue in how polls are reported for elections in Wiki. Maybe a footnote should be added to the table to identify and elaborate on which of the polls use MRP modeling, with additional details. 49.45.134.55 (talk) 09:46, 10 February 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Helakuru poll

First of all, I am not a professional research scientist. However, I am literate enough in research methodology to tell what is a scientific poll and what is not. I am afraid, the Helakuru poll is not scientific. It is an open-access poll as opposed to a poll conducted by random sample selection. As such it lacks scientific elements such as frequency weighting, Reliability (statistics), variance and margin of error. A supermajority of its sample comes from youth, urban, educated, and Sinhala-speaking provinces demographic backgrounds. Per the 2016 population pyramid, the youth voters (those aged between 20-30) only account for about 3 million. When the total electorate is 17 million, there is a fair possibility that the youth electorate's wishes will be undermined, I am afraid.

As such I believe the Helakuru poll should not be included in this article. For those Sri Lankans who wish to be educated in scientific polling, I would like to suggest this YouTube video by Dr Ruchira Wijesena. Cheers. Chanaka L (talk) 14:16, 16 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Totally agree. A proper, scientific poll will weigh the sample/responses so that it reflects the demographic of the whole electorate e.g. age, gender, ethnicity, education level, socio-economic class etc. Otherwise you cannot extrapolate the results of the poll to say that's what will happen in the election. The Helakuru poll is no better than a poll on social media. Obi2canibe (talk) 09:53, 17 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Numbers.lk poll

There's a new poll from the numbers.lk that has not been updated on the article. https://numbers.lk/analysis/akd-maintains-lead-in-numbers-lk-s-2nd-pre-election-poll-ranil-surges-to-second-place Devon Ranatunge (talk) 19:53, 25 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]

Added the poll to the article. Not Wlwtn (talk) 20:52, 25 August 2024 (UTC)[reply]