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2024 Velyka Novosilka offensive

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2024 Velyka Novosilka offensive
Part of the eastern front of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Destroyed building in Volnovakha Raion, July 2023
Date11 November 2024 – present
(2 weeks and 4 days)
Location
Velyka Novosilka, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine
Result Ongoing
Territorial
changes		 Russian army regains control over Rivnopil following the fall of Vuhledar
Belligerents
 Russia  Ukraine
Units involved

Russian Ground Forces

Russian Navy

GRU

Ukrainian Ground Forces

National Guard of Ukraine

Territorial Defense Forces

A military engagement between the Russian Armed Forces and Ukrainian Armed Forces for control over the Ukrainian town of Velyka Novosilka and the nearby area began in November 2024.

Background

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See also: War in Donbas, Battle of Donbas (2022), and Russian occupation of Donetsk Oblast

On March 12, after 15 days of fighting, Russian troops captured the nearby city of Volnovakha, located on a highway between Donetsk and Mariupol.[9][10] The Ukrainian troops then retreated to the town of Velyka Novosilka. Two days later, fighting began in the settlement.[citation needed]

Early capture efforts (2022)

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Between March 14 and 16, Russian forces achieved significant progress in their offensive originating from Volnovakha, breaking through the eastern sector of the Velyka Novosilka line. This advance included capturing several villages such as Volodymyrivka, Blahodatne, Mykilske, Pavlivka, and Vodiane.[11] By March 16, the Ukrainian General Staff confirmed that Russian troops had launched an offensive on Velyka Novosilka, reporting some gains.[12] Throughout April, Russian troops repeatedly shelled residential areas in Velyka Novosilka, intensifying the conflict.[13][14]

Stalemate in the region

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Following the initial offensive, a prolonged stalemate ensued. By mid-May, the U.S. Department of Defense reported that Russian forces near Velyka Novosilka appeared focused on completing the Siege of Mariupol rather than pressing further assaults on the village.[15] Despite renewed Russian efforts to advance on August 24 and 31, Ukrainian forces successfully repelled these attacks.[16][17] By December, reports of Russian troop buildups south of the village indicated reconnaissance missions rather than a well-prepared offensive, reflecting their limited operational capabilities.[18] Concurrently, attempts to capture the nearby city of Vuhledar resulted in severe Russian losses and limited progress, further contributing to the deadlock.[19][20][21]

Ukrainian counteroffensive (2023)

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Main article: 2023 Ukrainian counteroffensive

Between June and October, Ukrainian forces made significant strides in southern Donetsk Oblast during their counteroffensive against Russian positions. On June 4, they achieved limited gains around Rivnopil and southwest of Velyka Novosilka, sparking speculation about a broader counteroffensive.[22] By June 11, Ukrainian troops had recaptured Neskuchne, Blahodatne, and Makarivka, overcoming entrenched Russian defenses, including fortified positions in schools and near rivers.[23][24][25] The Ukrainian military claimed Russian forces destroyed a dam on the Mokri Yaly river to slow down their advance.[26]

At the late of June, fighting escalated around Rivnopil, which Ukraine claimed had been liberated on June 24,[27] but this was only confirmed on June 26.[28] Operations continued into July, focusing on Staromaiorske, where Ukrainian forces faced extremely difficult conditions, including mine-filled roads and systematic defensive strategies employed by the Russian side. On July 26, Staromaiorske was successfully recaptured, a significant achievement praised by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.[29][30] In August, attention shifted to Urozhaine, considered a "stronghold of Russia." After intense fighting and heavy resistance,[31] Urozhaine was liberated on August 16,[32] with retreating Russian forces suffering heavy losses.[33]

Second Russian offensive (2024)

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On June 10, Russian advances north of the village of Staromaiorske reportedly resulted in the capture of the entire settlement.[34][35] Subsequently, on July 13, Russian forces successfully took control of Urozhaine.[36] On July 18, Ukrainian authorities confirmed that their forces had withdrawn from the village, claiming that, despite Russian casualties amounting to over a hundred to several hundred fatalities "each day," their defensive positions had been destroyed, along with the village itself.[37][38]

Battle

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Further information: Battle of Vuhledar

The capture of Vuhledar by the Russian army on 1 October resulted in a renewed opening of the southeastern Donetsk front. Vuhledar functioned as a Ukrainian stronghold in this section of the frontline for over two years. With the fall of this city Russian forces had the ability of starting advances towards Velyka Novosilka, which is located about 30km to the west.[39] One week later, the Russian Defence Ministry reported that the village of Zolota Nyva was under Russian control.[40]

In early November, the Russian military began assault operations to the west of Velyka Novosilka around the Zaporizhzhia – Donetsk border, retaking the settlement of Rivnopil on November 13.[41][42][43] The following week, Russian forces intensified their assault efforts towards Velyka Novosilka from the east. At the same time, Russian forces also expanded the front to the northeast reaching the outskirts of Rozdolne, threatening to cut off the Velyka Novosilka – Pokrovsk road.[44][45] With these flanking maneuvers from the east, Russian assault groups attempt to bypass the Ukrainian fortifications, which are mainly built and aimed to stop attacks from the south.[46]

Russian forces entered the warehouses located southeast of Velyka Novosilka on 23 November, bringing the frontline up to the outskirts of the town,[47] and subsequently captured the buildings on 24 November.

Analysis

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Strategic value

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Velyka Novosilka is seen as a strategic point in the Donbas due to its location close to Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The settlement is, together with Kurakhove, one of the few remaining Ukrainian-controlled strongholds in southern Donetsk Oblast. Therefore, it also functions as a regional logistical hub for the Ukrainian forces.[48]

The Institute for the Study of War assessed on November 24 that the Russian military command is planning to advance from Velyka Novosilka into eastern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast to envelop the Ukrainian forces in the Pokrovsk – Kurakhove area from the west.[49] This will also threaten important Ukrainian ground lines of communication running from Zaporizhzhia into western Donetsk Oblast. [50]

Tactics

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A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are utilizing a new "carousel" tactic during their raids on Urozhaine. The milblogger stated that this "carousel" tactic enables Russian tanks to fire continuously on Ukrainian forces, both while stationary and while maneuvering. The milblogger further explained that as one tank is engaged in firing at Ukrainian forces, the crew of a second tank positions itself behind the first tank to reload.[51]

See also

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References

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  1. ^ a b Harward, Christina; Gasparyan, Davit; Mappes, Grace; Stepanenko, Kateryna; Runkel, William; Barros, George (2024-11-23). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 23, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 2024-11-24.
  2. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 12, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. 2024-11-13. Retrieved 2024-11-25.
  3. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 27, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 2024-11-28.
  4. ^ a b Mappes, Grace; Hird, Karolina; Gasparyan, Davit; Evans, Angelica; Gibson, Olivia; Trotter, Nate; Runkel, William; Barros, George (2024-11-21). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 21, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 2024-11-23.
  5. ^ a b c d Axe, David (2024-11-23). "Ramshackle Russian Assault Groups Are Maneuvering Around Undermanned Ukrainian Defenses In Donetsk Oblast". Forbes. Retrieved 2024-11-25.
  6. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. 2024-11-22. Retrieved 2024-11-25.
  7. ^ "Ukrainian Troops Use FPV Drones with Mounted Weapons". en.defence-ua.com. Retrieved 2024-11-28.
  8. ^ a b "Presidential brigade stops assault near Vremivka". Military. Honest news about the army, war and defense. Retrieved 2024-11-28.
  9. ^ Tim Lister (2022-03-11). "Evidence indicates Volnovakha in eastern Ukraine has fallen to Russian-backed forces". CNN. Archived from the original on 2022-03-14. Retrieved 2022-03-11.
  10. ^ "Russian-backed separatists capture Ukraine's Volnovakha - RIA". Reuters. 2022-03-11. Archived from the original on 2022-03-14. Retrieved 2022-03-11.
  11. ^ "[ Donetsk Front ] Russian Forces burst out of the east side Velyka Novosilka Line – captured 4 towns". Defense Politics Asia. March 14, 2022.
  12. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment - March 16, 2022". Institute for the Study of War. March 16, 2022.
  13. ^ "Morning strike on Donetsk region: 7 wounded". Ukrainska Pravda. April 13, 2022.
  14. ^ "Russia – Ukraine war updates as of April 25, 2022". Ukraine Frontlines. April 25, 2022.
  15. ^ "Senior Defense Official Holds a Background Briefing". US Department of Defense. May 16, 2022.
  16. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment - August 24, 2022". Institute for the Study of War. August 24, 2022.
  17. ^ "Оперативна інформація станом 18.00 31.08.2022 щодо російського вторгнення". Ukrainian General Staff. August 31, 2022 – via Facebook.
  18. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment - December 12, 2022". Institute for the Study of War. December 12, 2022.
  19. ^ "Хроника специальной военной операции: события 23 января 2023 года". Rybar. January 23, 2023 – via Telegram.
  20. ^ Ernilin, Petr (2023-01-25). "Russia prepares to entrap Vuhledar as Ukrainian forces lose first defence line". Pravda.ru. Archived from the original on 7 February 2023. Retrieved 2023-02-07.
  21. ^ Stepanenko, Kateryna; Hird, Karolina; Bailey, Riley; Mappes, Grace; Barros, George; Philipson, Layne; Philipson, Mason (March 1, 2023). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, March 1, 2023". Institute for the Study of War.
  22. ^ Bailey, Riley; Mappes, Grace; Wolkov, Nicole; Stepanenko, Kateryna; Barros, George; Kagan, Fredrick W. "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 4, 2023". Institute for the Study of War. Archived from the original on 9 August 2023. Retrieved 18 August 2023.
  23. ^ "Ukraine attempts to wear down and outsmart a distracted Russian army". PBS News. 2023-06-30. Retrieved 2024-11-27.
  24. ^ Zoria, Yuri (2023-06-11). "Ukrainian army liberates Blahodatne in southwestern Donetsk Oblast - 68th Jaeger Brigade". Euromaidan Press. Retrieved 2024-11-27.
  25. ^ Mappes, Grace; Wolkov, Nicole; Stepanenko, Kateryna; Barros, George; Clark, Mason. "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 11, 2023". Institute for the Study of War. Archived from the original on 12 June 2023. Retrieved 12 June 2023.
  26. ^ Borger, Julian; Sabbagh, Dan (12 June 2023). "Ukraine accuses Russia of destroying another dam to slow counteroffensive". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Archived from the original on 18 May 2024. Retrieved 13 June 2023.
  27. ^ Khalilova, Dinara (26 June 2023). "Defense Ministry: Ukraine liberates Rivnopil, Donetsk Oblast". The Kyiv Independent. Archived from the original on 6 August 2023. Retrieved 26 June 2023.
  28. ^ Stepanenko, Kateryna; Mappes, Grace; Wolkov, Nicole; Barros, George; Kagan, Frederick W. "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 26, 2023". Institute for the Study of War. Archived from the original on 27 June 2023. Retrieved 27 June 2023.
  29. ^ Gall, Carlotta (July 30, 2023). "Amid the Counterattack's Deadly Slog, a Glimmer of Success for Ukraine". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Archived from the original on July 30, 2023. Retrieved July 31, 2023.
  30. ^ Hird, Karolina; Bailey, Riley; Mappes, Grace; Evans, Angelica; Harward, Christina; Kagan, Frederick W. "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment July 27, 2023". Institute for the Study of War. Archived from the original on 28 July 2023. Retrieved 28 July 2023.
  31. ^ Santora, Marc (12 August 2023). "Ukraine Makes 'Tactically Significant' Progress in Its Counteroffensive". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 21 August 2023. Retrieved 13 August 2023.
  32. ^ Polityuk, Pavel; Kelly, Lidia; Balmforth, Tom (16 August 2023). "Ukraine retakes southeast village of Urozhaine from Russian forces". Reuters. Archived from the original on 23 August 2023. Retrieved 16 August 2023.
  33. ^ Axe, David (14 August 2023). "Ukrainian Cluster Shells Massacred Russian Troops Fleeing Urozhaine". Forbes. Archived from the original on 16 August 2023. Retrieved 16 August 2023.
  34. ^ "Moscow Says Captured Village in Southeastern Ukraine". The Moscow Times. 10 June 2024. Retrieved 10 June 2024.
  35. ^ Mappes, Grace; Wolkov, Nicole; Harward, Christina; Hird, Karolina; Stepanenko, Kateryna; Barros, George (10 June 2024). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 10, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 15 June 2024. Geolocated footage published on June 10 shows that Russian forces advanced to northern Staromayorske [...] and have likely seized the whole settlement.
  36. ^ Wolkov, Nicole; Evans, Angelica; Bailey, Riley; Harward, Christina; Kagan, Frederick W. (13 July 2024). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 13 July 2024.
  37. ^ Ukrainian forces withdraw from Urozhaine to saves lives of military personnel – Khortytsia Task Force
  38. ^ Ukrainian defenders withdraw from Urozhaine, Donetsk Oblast
  39. ^ Guy Faulconbridge (2024-10-02). "Russia captures Vuhledar after two years of Ukrainian resistance". Reuters. Retrieved 2024-11-23.
  40. ^ "Russia says it captures two villages in Ukraine's east". Reuters. 2024-10-08. Retrieved 2024-11-23.
  41. ^ "Russia says took control of Rivnopil in Ukraine's Donetsk region". Al Arabiya News. 2024-11-13. Retrieved 2024-11-23.
  42. ^ Elena Teslova (2024-11-13). "Russia claims to have taken control of another settlement in Ukraine". Anadolu Agency. Retrieved 2024-11-23.
  43. ^ "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 11, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. 2024-11-11. Retrieved 2024-11-25.
  44. ^ Mappes, Grace; Hird, Karolina; Gasparyan, Davit; Evans, Angelica; Gibson, Olivia; Runkel, William; Trotter, Nate; Barros, George (21 November 2024). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 21, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 23 November 2024.
  45. ^ "Russian forces reportedly advance near 5 settlements in Donetsk Oblast". The Kyiv Independant. 2024-11-23.
  46. ^ David Axe (2024-11-23). "Ramshackle Russian Assault Groups Are Maneuvering Around Undermanned Ukrainian Defenses In Donetsk Oblast". Forbes. Retrieved 2024-11-24.
  47. ^ Andrew E. Kramer (2024-11-23). "What's Behind Ukraine and Russia's Missile Brinkmanship?". The New York Times. Retrieved 2024-11-27.
  48. ^ Stanislav Storozhenko (2024-09-27). "How Close is Russia to Capturing Ukraine's Key Stronghold of Vuhledar?". The Moscow Times. Retrieved 2024-11-24.
  49. ^ Mappes, Grace; Harward, Christina; Gasparyan, Davit; Wolkov, Nicole; Barros, George (24 November 2024). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 24, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 23 November 2024.
  50. ^ Sasha Vakulina (2024-11-26). "Russian offensive in Ukraine's Donetsk region gains momentum". EuroNews. Retrieved 2024-11-29.
  51. ^ Mappes, Grace; Wolkov, Nicole; Stepanenko, Kateryna; Evans, Angelica; Kagan, Frederick W. (21 November 2024). "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 2, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 2024-11-24.

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