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Pokrovsk offensive

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Pokrovsk offensive
Part of the eastern Ukraine campaign of the Russian invasion of Ukraine

Myrnohrad after Russian shelling on 17 August 2024
Date18 July 2024 – present
(1 month, 3 weeks and 2 days)
Location
Pokrovsk Raion, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine
Status Ongoing
Belligerents
 Russia  Ukraine
Commanders and leaders
Russia Andrey Mordvichev Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi
Units involved
Order of battle Order of battle
Strength
~40,000 soldiers
(as of 2 August)		 ~12,000 soldiers
(as of 2 August)

The Pokrovsk offensive is an ongoing military operation in the Russian invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Armed Forces with the primary goal of capturing the strategic city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast. Fighting increased with the Russian advance into and subsequent capture of Prohres on 18 and 19 July, 2024, a turning point for the Russian offensive northwest of Avdiivka following the latter's capture in February 2024, and has taken place in numerous settlements east of Pokrovsk in Pokrovsk Raion.

Background

Main articles: Battle of Avdiivka (2023–2024) § Aftermath, Battle of Ocheretyne, and Eastern Ukraine campaign § Russian spring and summer campaign (April 2024–present)

Following the Russian success in the battle of Avdiivka, their forces significantly advanced north and northwest of the city to form a salient in the succeeding months. The success in the battle of Ocheretyne, fought over a town northwest of Avdiivka, led to further gains in the months leading up to July 2024.[1][2][3]

Offensive

Early advances (18–31 July)

On 17 July 2024, fighting began over Prohres, a village in central Donetsk Oblast, and Russian forces entered it the following day, in their first major advancement directly towards the city of Pokrovsk.[4] On 19 July, Prohres was captured by Russia[5][6] in an engagement reportedly lasting only 48 hours.[7] The breakthrough, reportedly caused by heavy airstrikes which led to the collapse and subsequent retreat of the 110th and 47th Mechanized Brigades, allowed for quick advances along a previously stable frontline.[8][9] Two days prior, Russian forces had reportedly advanced up to the settlement of Lozuvatske [uk], north of Prohres, and began contesting it.[10] DeepStateMap.Live showed the same day a Russian advance to occupy most of the village;[11] on 20 July, Russian troops began encircling the area between the two villages, and according to some sources, surrounded multiple Ukrainian companies by 24 July,[12] which according to Forbes was "potentially hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers" of two battalions[13][14] of the 31st Mechanized Brigade.[12] These soldiers, according to David Axe, however managed to escape the encirclement around 26 July with the help of coordinated artillery and drone strikes.[8][15] Forbes additionally reported that the 47th Brigade lost two M1 Abrams tanks during the engagement around Prohres and that Ukrainian forces had suffered high casualties.[8]

On 25 July, Russia began advancing west of Prohres along a railway towards Vesele.[16] This was followed by the capture of Lozuvatske around 26 July,[17] Vovche around 27 July,[18][19][6] and Novoselivka Persha, southeast of Prohres, around 29 July.[20] The Russian advances following the capture of Prohres and the "tense and difficult" situation east of Pokrovsk were attributed to a lack of Ukrainian manpower and equipment,[9][21][18] deficient training, and decreased morale.[22]

Advance towards Hrodivka and Novohrodivka (1–23 August)

On 1 August, Russian forces reportedly entered the outskirts of Zhelanne and Ivanivka,[23] and between 1–4 August, captured Vesele. Russian milbloggers also claimed further advances within Ivanivka the same day.[24][23] Forbes estimated on 2 August that Russia was advancing, where they were reportedly 18 kilometres (11 mi) from Pokrovsk, with "potentially" 40,000 troops composed of 20 Russian regiments and brigades while Ukraine had around 12,000 troops from six brigades.[25] Fighting continued in the sector on 5 and 6 August, and the increased rate of Russian advances, according to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, made the front the most active across the frontline by early August as Russia's main offensive goal.[26][27] Russia reportedly captured Serhiivka [uk] on 7 August, and began advancing towards the town of Hrodivka,[28] the capture of which would allow for artillery strikes on Pokrovsk itself.[26] On 9 August, the UK Defense Ministry reported that Pokrovsk was only 16 kilometres (9.9 mi) away from the frontline.[29]

Amidst Ukraine's incursion into Russia's Kursk Oblast, fighting near Pokrovsk increased around 13 August, with a reported increase to 52 battles in a day in the area, greater than a third of all engagements across the frontline;[30] a representative of the 110th Mechanized Brigade stated that the situation near Pokrovsk had deteriorated since Ukraine's incursion, attributed to shortages in ammunition and continual Russian offensive efforts.[31] On 13 August, Russia reportedly entered Hrodivka and aligned the frontline with the Kazennyi Torets river in the north, in the process capturing Ivanivka, Lysychne [uk], and Svyrdonivka [uk].[32] A Ukrainian official told Agence France-Presse that the incursion into Kursk had little effect on fighting in the east but that the "intensity of Russian attacks" had decreased slightly over the weekend.[33] A Ukrainian lieutenant corroborated the report of fighting in Hrodivka, and said that "everything is very grim on the Pokrovsk front", while another Ukrainian soldier said that Russian forces were ordered to seize Myrnohrad, a city east of Pokrovsk.[34] On 14 August, Russia continued advancing, seizing Zhelanne, southeast of Hrodivka, and in the direction of Novohrodivka, seizing Orlivka [uk] and reportedly entering Mykolaivka and Zhuravka [uk].[35][31] On 15 August, Ukraine was reported to be pulling reserve forces in order to prepare to defend Pokrovsk.[36]

Also on 15 August, Serhii Dobriak, the head of the Pokrovsk City Military Administration, reported that Russian forces were only 10 kilometres (6.2 mi) from the city, saying that Russia was "almost right up close to our community", and urged all citizens to evacuate.[37][38][39] The same day, a Ukrainian soldier reported that Russian forces had a 10–1 advantage over Ukraine east of Pokrovsk in terms of infantry and were relentlessly conducting assaults on Ukrainian positions throughout the whole day, while the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) stated that Russia was prioritizing advances towards Pokrovsk.[40] On 16 August, American officials reported that Russia had only withdrawn a limited number of units from eastern Ukraine to Kursk Oblast, while Ukrainian soldiers said that Russian attacks in the direction of Pokrovsk had not decreased following the incursion,[41] with Russia choosing to reinforce their forces in the Pokrovsk direction rather than divert them.[42] The same day, a Ukrainian officer reported that Russia was attempting to storm Novohrodivka,[41] while residents of Selydove, Myrnohrad, and Novohrodivka continued to evacuate.[43] On 17 August, Russia reportedly captured Mykolaivka, entered Novozhelanne, and advanced in the fields east of Zhelanne.[44] A high-rise building in Myrnohrad was attacked by Russian shelling.[45] Russian sources further claimed the complete capture of Novozhelanne and advances towards Novohrodivka and in the direction of Krutyi Yar [uk] through Zhuravka.[46]

Russian forces moved south of Zhelanne to capture Novozhelanne and Zavitne around 18 August, confirmed by a soldier hoisting the Russian flag on the southern of the two settlements.[47] On 19 August, civilians continued evacuating from Pokrovsk and surrounding settlements, while the city's head Serhii Dobriak announced that families with children would be forced to evacuate Pokrovsk due to continuing Russian advances starting 20 August, and would have at most two weeks to leave, while those in Myrnohrad would have only a few days. Dobriak additionally said that utilities and services would "gradually be winding down" within a week in Pokrovsk.[48][49][50] Russia advanced on 18 and 19 August to fully capture Zhuravka and to control all territory east of the Vovcha River in the area, capturing Mezhove and Skuchne in the process.[51] Russia continued to attack Novohrodivka and other settlements east of Pokrovsk;[52] military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady said that Russia was likely "engaging the last proper defensive line outside of the town".[53]

On 21 August, Russian forces advanced further south of Mykolaivka and south of Zhelanne, capturing Komyshivka.[54][55] President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged the recent advances made by Russia east of Pokrovsk the same day, and announced that its forces were being bolstered in the area.[56] Russia continued moving south on 22 August to capture Ptyche and advance in the direction of Kalynove [uk],[55] and reportedly gained a foothold in eastern Novohrodivka.[57][58] The ISW analysed that the recent southern advances were likely due to a Ukrainian withdrawal from positions in the area to avoid encirclement by Russian forces.[55] Services and the administration of Pokrovsk began shutting down or moving out of the city, while civilians continued to evacuate on 22 and 23 August.[42][59] Russian sources claimed on 23 August that Russia was advancing within southern and southeastern Novohrodivka, had advanced into Krasnyi Yar [uk] from the southeast, and that there were reports of a seizure of Kalynove.[58]

Capture of Novohrodivka and advance into Selydove (24 August – present)

Evacuations from Pokrovsk as a result of advancing Russian forces on 29 August

Russia continued advancing through Novohrodivka on 24 August, capturing most of the eastern portion of the city, while advancing south towards Kalynove [uk], and towards Karlivka from the east.[60][61] Russian sources claimed the city council building in Novohrodivka had been seized through advances in the central part of the city, and that Krasnyi Yar [uk] had been captured, southwest of Hrodivka.[60] Fighting continued for Novohrodivka on 25 August, and Russia reportedly increased their control to more than half of the city.[62] Russian sources claimed further advances south of Novohrodivka towards Marynivka [uk], and towards Kalynove from the north.[62][63]

Russia continued advancing southwards, southeast of Novohrodivka, on 26 and 27 August; Russian forces entered Mykhailivka, east of Selydove, and advanced into Memryk around 26 August.[64] The following day, Memryk, in addition to Kalynove, were reportedly captured.[65][66]

By 27 August, Russia had advanced along the railway line passing through Novohrodivka into the city's northwestern outskirts. The ISW assessed that the recent Russian advance through Novohrodivka, taken place in only a few days, was in part due to Ukraine not attempting to maintain defensive positions within the city,[66] where they reportedly had a 4–1 disadvantage in firepower,[67] and instead opting to abandon the settlement. The ISW further said that the advance through Novohrodivka would give Russia a pathway to advance into Pokrovsk, and that Ukraine would likely not retreat from their positions as quickly in Pokrovsk when fighting over the city.[66] By 28 August, Novohrodivka was widely reported to have been completely captured by Russia, with the Kyiv Post saying that the city had been lost in 72 hours. A prominent Ukrainian journalist expressed disaproval of the lack of promised fortifications in the area and called the situation near Pokrovsk "catastrophic".[67] Russian sources also claimed on 28 August that further advances within Hrodivka had been made, with the claimed advance being up to the Zhuravka River dividing the town, and that Myrnohrad's southern outskirts had been reached via advances north through Krasnyi Yar.[68]

The same day, Russia reportedly advanced into Selydove following a Ukrainian withdrawal from certain positions in the city, entering the eastern part of the city, likely through further advances within Mykhaikivka.[68][69]

The ISW assessed on 29 August that Russia was simultaneously pursuing two offensives near Pokrovsk: towards Pokrovsk itself, where Russia was attacking the defensive line from Hrodivka to Novohrodivka, and south towards the defensive line running from Ukrainsk–Hirnyk–Selydove. They assessed that the former effort saught to first capture Myrnohrad and then advance into Pokrovsk's outskirts, while the latter to expand the salient east of Pokrovsk and to lessen opportunities for a Ukrainian counterattack at the base of the 21 kilometer wide Russian salient towards Avdiivka, and that these were both likely seen as necessary objectives by Russia to achieve prior to launching an attack on Pokrovsk itself. The second effort would supposedly hope to further eliminate the Ukrainian salient north of Krasnohorivka and capture the fields north of it, assisting in the hostilities taking place south of the Ukrainian salient.[70]

Russian sources on 29 August claimed that engagements were taking place in northeastern Ukrainsk and southern Myrnohrad, while a Ukrainian analyst stated that the presence of Russian forces in Myrnohrad was rather only for sabotage and reconnaissance purposes. Selydove's center was claimed to have been reached by Russian forces.[70]

On 30 August, Russia captured the village of Karlivka, making further advances south of it, while Russian sources claimed a complete capture of Hrodivka. On 31 August Russia advanced into Halytsynivka and seized the northern portion of the village.[71][72] Russian milbloggers claimed that the village had been completely captured,[72] which was later confirmed on 3 September.[73] Russian forces likely captured Mykhailivka and Dolynivka on 1 September.[74] Civilians continued evacuating from Pokrovsk, while most of the city's businesses and infrastructure finished closing, such as hospitals and supermarkets, their contents being transported away from the frontline.[75]

By 2 September, elements of the 59th Motorized Infantry Brigade, 68th Jager Brigade, 117th Territorial Defense Brigade and 15th National Guard Brigade were in danger of being cut off and encircled in the Ukrainian salient southeast of Pokrovsk, east of the Vovcha River and north of Krasnohorivka. The integrity of the 78 square kilometres (30 sq mi) salient reportedly rested on the 25th Airborne Brigade, defending Ukrainsk.[76][77] On 3 September, Russian sources claimed that Russia had began advancing in this salient, west of Nevelske.[73] On 5 September, civilians remaining in Pokrovsk were asked to switch to using the train station of Pavlohrad for evacuation, with buses to the city being provided, as the Pokrovsk railway station [uk] was forced to close as it experienced a worsening security situation. 26,000 people remained in Pokrovsk according to Donetsk Oblast governor Vadym Filashkin.[78]

On 5 September, the ISW assessed that the recent expansion of the Pokrovsk salient southwards aimed to act in tandem with the renewed offensive towards Vuhledar in western Donetsk Oblast, with the former effort of seizing Pokrovsk continuing to serve as the priority, and the latter aimed at limiting the amount of Ukraininan redeployments to the Pokrovsk sector.[77] Russian efforts continued to envelop and encircle the Ukrainian salient west of Donetsk, with The New York Times saying it had been "nearly encircled" by Russian forces.[79][77]

By 7 September, Russian success northwest directly towards Pokrovsk had largely stalled, while advances continued in the southern direction, southeast of Pokrovsk.[79][80] Newly deployed Ukrainian brigades to the area made multiple counterattacks: in Selydove, a city crucial to further Russian offensive success where momentum had stalled,[80][79] in Halytsynivka, and in Mykhailivka.[81]

Russia continued exerting pressure on the southern direction at Ukrainsk and Hirnyk, with the former reportedly being entered.[77][82] The ISW analysed that a capture of these two cities would allow for the southern advances in the Pokrovsk salient to evolve into an attack on Kurakhove further south, a key city in the region, but that for now this axis of advance exists as a prerequisite of directly assaulting Pokrovsk.[77] A Russian source said that gaining control of the elevated areas near Ukrainsk and Hirnyk was being focused on rather than a full frontal assault on Ukrainsk. Visual confirmation was given on 7 September for a Russian advance to central Hrodivka, while Russian milbloggers claimed that Lisivka [uk], east of Ukrainsk, had been captured.[83]

Casualties

On 27 August, Ukrainian C-in-C Oleksandr Syrskyi claimed that, on average, his soldiers "neutralize" 300 Russian soldiers every day in the Pokrovsk direction.[84]

The 47th Mechanized Brigade operating in the Pokrovsk direction by late August 2024 had reportedly lost around half of the M1 Abrams tanks it had been supplied with.[85]

On 2 September, David Axe estimated that the Russians had suffered casualties of "potentially tens of thousands of soldiers" while advancing towards Pokrovsk following the capture of Avdiivka in February 2024.[76]

In an interview with Times Radio on 5 September, British defense analyst Prof. Michael Clarke estimated that the Russians were losing 1,000 men killed or wounded on average during the Pokrovsk offensive, and had also lost "well over" 100 armored vehicles over the past week alone.[86]

Analysis

Strategic value

Pokrovsk has been described as a strategically significant city due to its role as a supply hub; it stands at the intersection of multiple supply highways, one of which leads towards key inwards cities in Donetsk Oblast, including Chasiv Yar and Kostiantynivka,[9][87][34][88] and houses a regionally significant railway station [uk].[89] If captured by Russia, Pokrovsk would be the most populous settlement seized since Bakhmut in 2023.[53] Due to its strategic positioning, such a capture would allow for advances towards Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia.[42]

Military expert Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov said that Pokrovsk's position as a "very important hub" and a "centre of defence" means that "the entire frontline will crumble" if the city is captured by Russia.[89]

President Zelenskyy also gave a lengthy statement in which he compared the battle to the Battle of Bakhmut, saying that "this is an unconditional decision of the military, who should be in the Pokrovsky direction, in what number, etc. But you have to understand: they are not retreating there. Returning back, they are shot. I am talking about the Russian army. And they will press. It is necessary for them. Like the situation with Bakhmut. They will put 50-60 thousand people there. You will see it. You will understand these numbers very soon."[90]

Tactics and battlefield challenges

Russian advances towards Pokrovsk were partially attributed by Ukrainian commanders and soldiers to issues with new Ukrainian conscripts; these newly mobilised soldiers reportedly had little to no training, were often incapable of effectively shooting a target, were overly-hasty in retreating from positions, and sometimes fled an area of staging battlefield operations out of a lack of trust for the plans.[91]

An Azov Brigade officer said that many soldiers serving in the Pokrovsk direction are there against their will, and that the discipline, morale, and exhaustion problems with these and other soldiers are a contributor to the situation which he described as "out of control".[92]

Russian forces typically attack and perform operations with small infantry groups, where they are relatively effective at advancing through villages and are harder for Ukrainian drones to target.[70][91]

See also

References

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