2016 United States presidential election in Connecticut
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| Elections in Connecticut |
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The 2016 United States presidential election in Connecticut was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Connecticut voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Connecticut has seven electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]
Clinton won the state by 13.64%, a smaller margin of victory than outgoing President Barack Obama's 17.33% in 2012.[2] Clinton carried six of the state's eight counties; however, Trump was the first Republican presidential candidate to win Windham County since George H. W. Bush in 1988.
Trump's strongest county in the state was rural Litchfield County, while Clinton's biggest win was in adjacent, more urban Hartford County.[3] Areas that swung in Clinton's favor were mainly concentrated in suburban Fairfield County, in towns like Greenwich, Darien, New Canaan, and Westport.[4][3] This area is home to many New York City commuters. Other Democratic swings happened in suburbs outside Hartford, such as Avon, Granby, East Granby, and Glastonbury, as well as outside New Haven, in towns like Guilford, Madison, and Woodbridge.[4][3] This was the first time since 1888 that Darien and the first time since 1912 that Easton voted Democratic, largely due to opposition to the populist Trump among historically Republican affluent and educated voters. By contrast, areas that swung hard for Trump were mainly located in Windham County and northern New London County, in towns like Killingly, Sterling, Plainfield, and Voluntown.[5] This mirrored a national trend of Trump gaining White working-class support.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]Three candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[6]
Opinion polling
[edit]Results
[edit]| Candidate | Popular vote | Estimated delegates | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
| Hillary Clinton | 170,045 | 51.80% | 28 | 15 | 43 |
| Bernie Sanders | 152,379 | 46.42% | 27 | 0 | 27 |
| Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente | 960 | 0.29% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 4,871 | 1.48% | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Total | 328,255 | 100% | 55 | 16 | 71 |
| Source: [7][8] | |||||
Republican primary
[edit]
- 40–50%
- 50–60%
- 60–70%
- 70–80%
- 40–50%
Four candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[6]
- Ben Carson (withdrawn)
- Ted Cruz
- John Kasich
- Donald Trump
Opinion polling
[edit]Results
[edit]| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 123,523 | 57.86% | 28 | 0 | 28 |
| John Kasich | 60,522 | 28.35% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ted Cruz | 24,987 | 11.70% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Uncommitted | 2,728 | 1.28% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Carson (withdrawn) | 1,733 | 0.81% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 213,493 | 100.00% | 28 | 0 | 28 |
| Source: The Green Papers | |||||
General election
[edit]Polling
[edit]Clinton won every pre-election poll conducted. An average of the final 3 polls showed Clinton leading 49% to 38%, and the final poll showed Clinton leading Trump 50% to 35%.[9]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Times[10] | Safe D | November 6, 2016 |
| CNN[11] | Safe D | November 4, 2016 |
| Cook Political Report[12] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Electoral-vote.com[13] | Safe D | November 8, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[14] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| RealClearPolitics[16] | Lean D | November 8, 2016 |
| Fox News[17] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton | 897,572 | 54.57% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump | 673,215 | 40.93% | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson | 48,676 | 2.96% | |
| Green | Jill Stein | 22,841 | 1.39% | |
| Independent | Evan McMullin (write-in) | 2,108 | 0.13% | |
| Write-in | 361 | 0.02% | ||
| Constitution | Darrell Castle (write-in) | 147 | 0.01% | |
| Total votes | 1,644,920 | 100.00% | ||
By county
[edit]| County | Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Gary Johnson Libertarian |
Jill Stein Green |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Fairfield | 243,852 | 57.89% | 160,077 | 38.00% | 11,691 | 2.78% | 4,866 | 1.16% | 723 | 0.18% | 83,775 | 19.89% | 421,209 |
| Hartford | 240,403 | 59.09% | 148,173 | 36.42% | 11,997 | 2.95% | 5,680 | 1.40% | 611 | 0.15% | 92,230 | 22.67% | 406,864 |
| Litchfield | 39,775 | 40.82% | 53,051 | 54.44% | 3,004 | 3.08% | 1,441 | 1.48% | 171 | 0.17% | -13,276 | -13.62% | 97,442 |
| Middlesex | 45,357 | 51.18% | 38,867 | 43.86% | 2,760 | 3.11% | 1,497 | 1.69% | 143 | 0.16% | 6,490 | 7.32% | 88,624 |
| New Haven | 205,609 | 54.25% | 159,048 | 41.96% | 9,119 | 2.41% | 4,757 | 1.26% | 473 | 0.13% | 46,561 | 12.29% | 379,006 |
| New London | 62,278 | 50.42% | 54,058 | 43.76% | 4,744 | 3.84% | 2,220 | 1.80% | 228 | 0.19% | 8,220 | 6.66% | 123,528 |
| Tolland | 38,506 | 49.73% | 34,194 | 44.16% | 3,181 | 4.11% | 1,370 | 1.77% | 173 | 0.23% | 4,312 | 5.57% | 77,424 |
| Windham | 21,792 | 42.88% | 25,747 | 50.66% | 2,180 | 4.29% | 1,010 | 1.99% | 94 | 0.18% | -3,955 | -7.78% | 50,823 |
| Total | 897,572 | 54.57% | 673,215 | 40.93% | 48,676 | 2.96% | 22,841 | 1.39% | 2,616 | 0.16% | 224,357 | 13.64% | 1,644,920 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
By congressional district
[edit]Clinton won all 5 congressional districts.[19]
| District | Clinton | Trump | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 59.4% | 36.32% | John B. Larson |
| 2nd | 48.66% | 45.77% | Joe Courtney |
| 3rd | 55.88% | 40.38% | Rosa DeLauro |
| 4th | 59.57% | 36.56% | Jim Himes |
| 5th | 49.93% | 45.83% | Elizabeth Esty |
Turnout
[edit]According to Connecticut's Secretary of State Elections Night Reporting website, voter turnout was 76.94% with 1,675,934 voters checked reported out of 2,178,169 Registered Voters Reported.[20]
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Connecticut
- First presidency of Donald Trump
- 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums
- 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
- 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries
References
[edit]- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
- ^ "Connecticut Election Results 2016 – The New York Times". Retrieved November 10, 2016.
- ^ a b "Statement of Vote. General election. November 6, 2012" (PDF). Retrieved March 11, 2023.
- ^ Statement of Vote
- ^ a b "Secretary Merrill Selects Presidential Primary Ballot Order" (PDF). Secretary of the State of Connecticut. March 22, 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 6, 2016. Retrieved May 21, 2016.
- ^ The Green Papers
- ^ Connecticut Secretary of State - Official Primary Results
- ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Connecticut: Trump vs. Clinton".
- ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ Chalian, David (November 4, 2016). "Road to 270: CNN's new election map". CNN. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
- ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on March 1, 2019. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
- ^ "2016 Electoral Map Prediction". Electoral-vote.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
- ^ Sabato, Larry J. (November 7, 2016). "2016 President". University of Virginia Center for Politics. Retrieved March 3, 2019.
- ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ Bump, Philip. "The counties that flipped parties to swing the 2016 election". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved September 1, 2020.
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
- ^ Connecticut Secretary of State Elections Last edited 2020-07-9 Retrieved 2020-07-09 Archived 2020-11-08 at the Wayback Machine
External links
[edit]- RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process Archived 2016-11-08 at the Wayback Machine
- Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions
